LncRNA GAS5 regulated by FTO-mediated m6A demethylation promotes autophagic cell death in NSCLC by targeting UPF1/BRD4 axis

Long non-coding RNA (lncRNA) growth arrest-specific transcript 5 (GAS5) has been shown to be a regulator for many cancers, including non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Therefore, its role and mechanism in the process of NSCLC deserve to be further revealed. The expression levels of GAS5, fat mass and obesity-associated protein (FTO) and bromodomain-containing protein 4 (BRD4) were detected by quantitative real-time PCR. Western blot analysis was used to examine the protein expression of FTO, BRD4, up-frameshift protein 1 (UPF1) and autophagy-related markers. Methylated RNA immunoprecipitation was used to assess the m6A level of GAS5 regulated by FTO. Cell proliferation and apoptosis were determined using MTT assay, EdU assay and flow cytometry. Autophagy ability was assessed by immunofluorescence staining and transmission electron microscope. Xenograft tumor model was constructed to explore the effects of FTO and GAS5 on NSCLC tumor growth in vivo. The interaction between UPF1 and GAS5 or BRD4 was confirmed by pull-down assay, RIP assay, dual-luciferase reporter assay, and chromatin immunoprecipitation. Fluorescent in situ hybridization was used to analyze the co-localization of GAS5 and UPF1. Actinomycin D treatment was employed to evaluate BRD4 mRNA stability. GAS5 was downregulated in NSCLC tissues and was associated with poor prognosis in NSCLC patients. FTO was highly expressed in NSCLC, and it inhibited GAS5 expression by reducing GAS5 m6A methylation level. GAS5 suppressed by FTO could promote the autophagic death of NSCLC cells in vitro and inhibit NSCLC tumor growth in vivo. In addition, GAS5 was able to interact with UPF1 to reduce the mRNA stability of BRD4. Knockdown of BRD4 reversed the inhibition of GAS5 or UPF1 silencing on the autophagic cell death of NSCLC. The findings of the study showed that lncRNA GAS5 mediated by FTO could contribute to the autophagic cell death of NSCLC by interacting with UPF1 to reduce BRD4 mRNA stability, suggesting that GAS5 might be a vital therapy target for NSCLC progression.

Correlation between recurrence-free survival and overall survival after upfront surgery for resected colorectal liver metastases

BACKGROUND

The role of recurrence-free survival (RFS) as a valid surrogate endpoint for overall survival (OS) in patients who underwent upfront surgery for colorectal liver metastases remains uncertain. The aim of the study was to compare the two survival measures in a nationwide cohort of upfront resected colorectal liver metastasis.

METHODS

Data from patients with colorectal liver metastases without extrahepatic metastases who underwent curative surgery for liver metastases were retrieved from the Japanese nationwide database (data collection 2005-2007 and 2013-2014). RFS, OS, and survival after recurrence were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The correlation (ρ) between RFS and OS was assessed using the rank correlation method combined with iterative multiple imputation, to account for censoring. As a secondary analysis, the correlation was evaluated according to adjuvant chemotherapy regimen. In sensitivity analysis, the pairwise correlation between RFS and OS was calculated.

RESULTS

A total of 2385 patients with colorectal liver metastases were included. In the primary analysis, there was a moderately strong correlation between RFS and OS (ρ = 0.73, 95 per cent c.i. 0.70 to 0.76). The strength of the correlation was similar regardless of the adjuvant treatment regimen (oxaliplatin plus 5-fluorouracil: ρ = 0.72, 0.67 to 0.77; 5-fluorouracil alone: ρ = 0.72, 0.66 to 0.76; observation: ρ = 0.74, 0.69 to 0.78). The mean(s.d.) pairwise correlation coefficient between 3-year RFS and 5-year OS was 0.87(0.06).

CONCLUSION

In surgically treated patients with colorectal liver metastases, there was a moderately strong correlation between RFS and OS, which was unaffected by the treatment regimen. Further validation using a trial-level analysis is required.

Efficacy and safety analyses of epidermal growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitors combined with chemotherapy in the treatment of advanced non-small-cell lung cancer with an EGFR/TP53 co-mutation

PURPOSE

Epidermal growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitors (EGFR-TKIs) combined with cytotoxic chemotherapy are highly effective in the treatment of advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with EGFR mutations. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the efficacy and safety of this combination in advanced NSCLC patients with an EGFR/TP53 co-mutation.

METHODS

Ninety-five advanced NSCLC patients with an EGFR/TP53 co-mutation were enrolled in this study. Treatments with either EGFR-TKI monotherapy (T group, n = 61) or EGFR-TKI combined with chemotherapy (TC group, n = 34) were evaluated in relation to objective response rate (ORR), disease control rate (DCR), median time to progression (TTP), and median overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

There were no statistically significant differences in DCR between the treatment groups. The ORR was significantly improved in the TC group versus the T group (55.9% vs. 34.4%, P = 0.042). A higher median TTP was noted in TC group compared with T group (16.1 vs. 11.1 months, P = 0.002). Patients without brain metastases in TC group had a longer median OS than in T group (48.4 vs. 28.8 months, P = 0.003). However, there was a non-significant trend towards longer OS in TC group in the entire cohort (36.9 vs. 28.2 months, P = 0.078). Cox multivariate regression analysis showed that clinical stage, brain metastases, EGFR21 L858R mutation, and T790M status at first progression were independent risk factors for OS. However, the incidence of grade 3 or higher adverse events were higher in the TC group than in the T group (32.4% vs. 13.1%, P = 0.025).

CONCLUSION

Our study indicates that EGFR-TKIs combined with chemotherapy could significantly improve the ORR and TTP of advanced NSCLC patients with an EGFR/TP53 co-mutation. Combination therapy may be a promising treatment for advanced NSCLC patients with an EGFR/TP53 co-mutation without brain metastases.

Validating ORR and PFS as surrogate endpoints in phase II and III clinical trials for NSCLC patients: difference exists in the strength of surrogacy in various trial settings

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to systematically validate the performance of surrogate endpoints in phase II and III clinical trials for NSCLC patients under various trial settings.

METHODS

A literature search retrieved all registered phase II and III trials of NSCLC patients in which OS, with at least one of ORR and PFS, were reported. Associations between surrogate and true endpoints were assessed on two levels. On the arm level, three pairs of correlations, i.e., ORR vs. median OS, ORR vs. median PFS, and median PFS vs. median OS, were analysed using Spearman's rho. On the trial level, similarly, three pairs of correlations, i.e., ΔORR vs. HR of OS, ΔORR vs. HR of PFS, and HR of PFS vs. HR of OS, were analysed using Spearman's rho and weighted linear regression model respectively. Finally, sensitivity analyses were performed to explore surrogacy under various trial settings.

RESULTS

At arm level, three pairs of correlations are all high (Spearman's rho = 0.700, 0.831, 0.755, respectively). At trial level, there is a low correlation between ΔORR and HR of OS, a high correlation between ΔORR and HR of PFS and a moderate correlation between HR of PFS and HR of OS (Spearman's rho = 0.462, 0.764, 0.584, respectively). In the sensitivity analysis, we find correlations between surrogate and true endpoints vary by different trial settings. It is noteworthy that the strength of surrogacy of these intermediate endpoints in targeted therapy is greater than that in immunotherapy.

CONCLUSION

According to the arm-level and trial level-analysis, we suggest that in phase II and III trials of targeted therapy and immunotherapy for NSCLC patients: 1) ORR lacks validity for the surrogacy of OS, excluding in first-line therapy, and 2) ORR may be an appropriate surrogate endpoint for PFS, and 3) PFS may be considered a modest surrogacy for OS, with better performance in first-line therapy trials. Moreover, to provide more convincing evidence of surrogacy of the surrogate endpoints, patient-level analyses are in desperate need.

Post-progression survival after atezolizumab plus carboplatin and etoposide as first-line chemotherapy in small cell lung cancer has a significant impact on overall survival

BACKGROUND

The effect of first-line chemotherapy on overall survival (OS) may be significantly influenced by subsequent therapy for patients with extensive disease small cell lung cancer (ED-SCLC). Therefore, we evaluated the relationship between progression-free survival (PFS), post-progression survival (PPS), and OS of ED-SCLC patients treated with atezolizumab plus carboplatin and etoposide as first-line therapy.

METHODS

We analyzed the data of 57 patients with relapsed ED-SCLC treated with atezolizumab plus carboplatin and etoposide (AteCE) as first-line chemotherapy between August 2019 and September 2020. The respective correlations between PFS-OS and PPS-OS following first-line AteCE treatment were examined at the individual patient level.

RESULTS

Spearman's rank correlation analysis and linear regression analysis showed that PPS strongly correlated with OS (r = 0.93, p < 0.05, R²  = 0.85) and that PFS moderately correlated with OS (r = 0.55, p < 0.05, R²  = 0.28). Performance status at relapse (0-1/≥2), number of cycles of atezolizumab maintenance therapy (<3/≥3), and platinum rechallenge chemotherapy all significantly positively correlated with PPS (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Upon comparing OS-PFS and OS-PPS in this patient population, OS and PPS were found to have a stronger correlation. These results suggest that performance status at relapse, atezolizumab maintenance, or chemotherapy rechallenge could affect PPS.

Clinical impact of post-progression survival in patients with locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer after chemoradiotherapy

BACKGROUND

The efficacy of first-line chemoradiotherapy for overall survival (OS) might be confounded by the subsequent treatments in patients with locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). In this study, we assessed the associations of progression-free survival (PFS) and post-progression survival (PPS) with OS after chemoradiotherapy for locally advanced NSCLC using patient-level data.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Between January 2011 and December 2018, 45 patients with locally advanced NSCLC who had received first-line chemoradiotherapy and in whom recurrence occurred were analysed. The associations of PFS and PPS with OS were analysed at the individual level.

RESULTS

Linear regression and Spearman rank correlation analyses revealed that PPS was strongly correlated with OS (r = 0.72, p < 0.05, R2 = 0.54), whereas PFS was moderately correlated with OS (r = 0.58, p < 0.05, R² = 0.34). The Glasgow prognostic score and liver metastases at recurrence were significantly associated with PPS (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The current analysis of individual-level data of patients treated with first-line chemoradiotherapy implied that PPS had a higher impact on OS than PFS in patients with locally advanced NSCLC. Additionally, current perceptions indicate that treatment beyond progression after first-line chemoradiotherapy might strongly affect OS.

The validity of progression-free survival 2 as a surrogate trial end point for overall survival

BACKGROUND

Overall survival (OS) is the gold-standard end point for oncology trials. However, the availability of multiple therapeutic options after progression and crossover to receive investigational agents confound and delay OS data maturation. Progression-free survival 2 (PFS-2), defined as the time from randomization to progression on first subsequent therapy, has been proposed as a surrogate for OS. Using a meta-analytic approach, the authors aimed to assess the association between OS and PFS-2 and compare this with progression-free survival 1 (PFS-1) and the objective response rate (ORR).

METHODS

An electronic literature search was performed to identify randomized trials of systemic therapies in advanced solid tumors that reported PFS-2 as a prespecified end point. Correlations between OS and PFS-2, OS and PFS-1, and OS and ORR as hazard ratios (HRs) or odds ratios (ORs) were assessed via linear regression weighted by trial size.

RESULTS

Thirty-eight trials were included, and they comprised 19,031 patients across 8 tumor types. PFS-2 displayed a moderate correlation with OS (r = 0.67; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.08-0.69). Conversely, correlations of ORR (r = 0.12; 95% CI, 0.00-0.13) and PFS-1 (r = 0.21; 95% CI, 0.00-0.33) were poor. The findings for PFS-2 were consistent for subgroup analyses by treatment type (immunotherapy vs nonimmunotherapy: r = 0.67 vs 0.67), survival post progression (<12 vs ≥12 months: r = 0.86 vs 0.79), and percentage not receiving subsequent treatment (<50% vs ≥50%: r = 0.70 vs 0.63).

CONCLUSIONS

Across diverse tumors and therapies, the treatment effect on PFS-2 correlated moderately with the treatment effect on OS. PFS-2 performed consistently better than PFS-1 and ORR, regardless of postprogression treatment and postprogression survival. PFS-2 should be included as a key trial end point in future randomized trials of solid tumors.

Ultrasound-targeted microbubble destruction mediated miR-492 inhibitor suppresses the tumorigenesis in non-small cell lung cancer

BACKGROUND

Ultrasound-targeted microbubble destruction (UTMD) is a novel adjuvant tumor therapeutic method by enhancing exogenous gene transfection to target tissues. This study aims to investigate the role of microRNA-492 (miR-492) in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and further analyze the effects of UTMD-mediated miR-492 inhibitor on tumorigenesis.

METHODS

The expression of miR-492 was detected by qRT-PCR. Co-transfection of microbubbles and miR-492 inhibitor with Lipofectamine 3000 was performed to achieve UTMD-mediated miR-492 inhibition in NSCLC cells. CCK-8 and Transwell assay were used to determine NSCLC cell proliferation, and the migration and invasion.

RESULT

High expression of miR-492 was associated with poor prognosis in NSCLC patients. miR-492 inhibitor suppressed tumor cell proliferation, migration and invasion, and UTMD not only increased the transfection efficiency of miR-492 inhibitor, but also enhance the inhibitory effects on cell biological behaviors.

CONCLUSION

The results showed that the expression level of miR-492 was up-regulated in NSCLC tissue samples and cells. Silencing of miR-492 inhibited NSCLC cell proliferation, migration and invasion, and UTMD-mediated miR-492 inhibitor could promote more significant inhibition, which indicated that UTMD-mediated miR-492 inhibitor might provide a novel strategy for the treatment of NSCLC.KEY MESSAGESmiR-492 inhibitor inhibited cell proliferation, migration and invasion.UTMD-mediated miR-492 inhibitor can promote more significant inhibition.UTMD-mediated miR-492 inhibitor provide a new strategy for NSCLC.

Post-Progression Survival Highly Influences Overall Survival in Driver Gene Mutation/Translocation Negative or Unknown Type of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

INTRODUCTION

In stage I-III non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), which is considered operable, surgical resection is the most efficacious treatment and is considered to provide a cure. However, after complete surgical resection, approximately 50% of patients with stage I-IIIA NSCLC experience recurrence and death. Once postoperative recurrence of NSCLC occurs, the prognosis is significantly poor, and the course of treatment after recurrence may influence overall survival (OS). Consequently, we investigated the relationship between relapse-free survival (RFS), post-progression survival (PPS), and OS in patients with postoperative recurrence of NSCLC with driver gene mutation/translocation negative or unknown status.

METHODS

Between January 2007 and September 2019, 101 patients with driver gene mutation/translocation negative or unknown status of NSCLC who underwent complete resection and in whom recurrence occurred were analyzed. The associations between RFS, PPS, and OS were analyzed at the individual patient level.

RESULTS

Linear regression and Spearman rank correlation analyses revealed that PPS was strongly associated with OS (r = 0.83, p < 0.0001, R2 = 0.71), whereas RFS was moderately correlated with OS (r = 0.65, p < 0.0001, R2 = 0.48). In the multivariate analysis, performance status at relapse, administration of immune checkpoint inhibitors, and radiotherapy for oligo-recurrences were significantly associated with PPS (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Current analysis of individual-level data of patients who underwent complete resection implied that PPS had a higher impact on OS than RFS in patients with postoperative recurrence of driver gene mutation/translocation negative or unknown status of NSCLC. Additionally, current perceptions indicate that treatment beyond progression after complete surgical resection might strongly affect OS.

Use of diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DW-MRI) to predict early response to anti-tumor therapy in advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC): a comparison of intravoxel incoherent motion-derived parameters and apparent diffusion coefficient

Background

The intravoxel incoherent motion (IVIM) method of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) analysis can provide information regarding many physiological and pathological processes. This study aimed to investigate whether IVIM-derived parameters and the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) can act as imaging biomarkers for predicting non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) response to anti-tumor therapy and compare their performances.

Methods

This prospective study included 45 patients with NSCLC treated with chemotherapy (29 men and 16 women, mean age 57.9±9.7 years). Diffusion-weighted imaging was performed with 13 b-values before and 2–4 weeks after treatment. The IVIM parameter pseudo-diffusion coefficient (D*), perfusion fraction (f), diffusion coefficient (D), and ADC from a mono-exponential model were obtained. Responses 2 months after chemotherapy were assessed. The diagnostic performance was evaluated, and optimal cut-off values were determined by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, and the differences of progression-free survival (PFS) in groups of responders and non-responders were tested by Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier survival analyses.

Results

Of 45 patients, 30 (66.7%) were categorized as responders, and 15 as non-responders. Differences in the diffusion coefficient D and ADC between responders and non-responders were statistically significant (all P<0.05). Conversely, differences in f and D* between responders and non-responders were both not statistically significance (all P>0.05). The ROC analyses showed the change in D value (ΔD) was the best predictor of early response to anti-tumor therapy [area under the ROC curve (AUC), 0.764]. The Cox-regression model showed that all ADC and D parameters were independent predictors of PFS, with a range of reduction in risk from 56.2% to 82.7%, and ΔD criteria responders had the highest reduction (82.7%).

Conclusions

ADC and D derived from IVIM are potentially useful for the prediction of NSCLC treatment response to anti-tumor therapy. Although ΔD is best at predicting response to treatment, ΔADC measurement may simplify manual efforts and reduce the workload.

Course of postoperative relapse in non-small cell lung cancer is strongly associated with post-progression survival

Background

For early‐stage non‐small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), surgical resection is considered the most effective treatment strategy and curative treatment. Unfortunately, even after complete resection, almost half of all patients with stage I–IIIA NSCLC relapse and die. Although the possibility of a cure for postoperative recurrence of NSCLC is significantly low, the course of subsequent treatment can possibly affect overall survival (OS). Here, we examined the association of relapse‐free survival (RFS) and post‐progression survival (PPS) with OS in patients with postoperative recurrence of NSCLC.

Methods

We evaluated 128 patients with NSCLC who underwent complete resection between January 2007 and December 2018. The association between RFS and PPS on OS was examined at the patient level.

Results

Spearman's rank correlation and linear regression analyses revealed that PPS was strongly correlated with OS (r = 0.83, p < 0.05, R² = 0.72), whereas RFS was weakly associated with OS (r = 0.56, p < 0.05, R² = 0.37). Additionally, the performance status at relapse and administration of tyrosine kinase inhibitors were significantly correlated with PPS.

Conclusions

PPS was significantly more strongly correlated with OS than was RFS in patients with postoperative recurrence of NSCLC. These results suggest that therapy following postoperative recurrence affects OS. Therefore, it is necessary to validate these promising results in a large prospective study.

Prognostic value of microRNA-4521 in non-small cell lung cancer and its regulatory effect on tumor progression

Background

Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is a malignant tumor with the highest mortality rate in our country. It has been found in many studies that microRNA-4521 (miR-4521) is abnormally expressed and plays a role in clear cell renal cell carcinoma and other cancers.

Objective

The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between miR-4521 expression and clinical prognosis, as well as its influence on cell biological behavior.

Methods

The expression differences of miR-4521 in NSCLC tissues and cells were examined by qRT-PCR technology. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis and Cox regression analysis were used to analyze the clinical information and survival status of patients to explore the relationship. Using the vitro cell MTT assay, Transwell assay, and western-blot analysis, the effects of miR-4521 on cell proliferation, migration, and invasion were analyzed.

Results

The expression of miR-4521 in NSCLC tissues and cells was significantly downregulated. miR-4521 can be used as an independent prognostic factor. The survival rate of the miR-4521 low expression group was lower, which was significantly related to poor prognosis. In addition, the low expression of miR-4521 significantly promoted cell proliferation, migration, and invasion with highly expressed related protein levels. FOXM1 might be a direct target of miR-4521.

Conclusion

The results of this study showed that the low expression of miR-4521 indicated the poor prognosis of NSCLC and promoted cell proliferation, migration, and invasion by targeting FOXM1.

Bevacizumab plus erlotinib versus erlotinib alone in Japanese patients with advanced, metastatic, EGFR-mutant non-small-cell lung cancer (NEJ026): overall survival analysis of an open-label, randomised, multicentre, phase 3 trial

BACKGROUND

Bevacizumab is a promising candidate for combination treatment with epidermal growth factor receptor tyrosine-kinase inhibitors (eg, erlotinib), which could improve outcomes for patients with metastatic EGFR-mutant non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We have previously shown in NEJ026, a phase 3 trial, that the combination of bevacizumab plus erlotinib significantly prolonged progression-free survival compared with erlotinib alone in these patients. In further analyses, we aimed to examine the effects of bevacizumab-erlotinib on overall survival, time from enrolment to progressive disease during second-line treatment or death, and quality of life.

METHODS

This open-label, randomised, multicentre, phase 3 trial (NEJ026) was done in 69 hospitals and medical, community-based centres across Japan. Eligible patients had stage IIIB, stage IV, or postoperative recurrent, EGFR-mutant (exon 19 deletion or exon 21 Leu858Arg point mutation) NSCLC, had not previously received systemic chemotherapy, and were randomly assigned (1:1) by a computer-generated randomisation sequence and minimisation to receive either 150 mg oral erlotinib once daily plus 15 mg/kg intravenous bevacizumab once every 21 days, or 150 mg oral erlotinib once daily, until disease progression or intolerable toxicity. Randomisation was stratified according to sex, smoking status, EGFR mutation subtype, and clinical disease stage. All participants, investigators, and study personnel (including those assessing outcomes) were unmasked to treatment allocation. We report the secondary outcomes of overall survival and quality of life (the period from enrolment to confirmation of a minimally important difference on the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire [EORTC QLQ]-C30), and the exploratory outcome of time from enrolment to progressive disease during second-line treatment or death. Overall survival and the exploratory outcome were analysed in the modified intention-to-treat population, which comprised all randomly assigned patients who received at least one dose of the study drug and had response evaluations. Quality of life was analysed in patients in the modified intention-to-treat population who had completed the quality of life questionnaires. The trial is registered with the University Hospital Medical Information Network Clinical Trials Registry, UMIN000017069, and the Japan Registry of Clinical Trials, jRCTs031180056, and is currently closed.

FINDINGS

Between June 3, 2015, and Aug 31, 2016, 228 patients were enrolled. 112 patients who received bevacizumab-erlotinib and 112 who received erlotinib only were included in the modified intention-to-treat population. At data cutoff (Nov 30, 2019) and a median follow-up of 39·2 months (IQR 23·9-43·5), the median overall survival was 50·7 months (95% CI 37·3-not estimable [NE]) in the bevacizumab-erlotinib group and 46·2 months (38·2-NE) in the erlotinib-only group (hazard ratio [HR] 1·007, 95% CI 0·681-1·490; p=0·97). In analysis of the exploratory outcome, after a median follow-up of 23·9 months (IQR 14·2-39·1), the median time from enrolment to progressive disease during second-line treatment or death was 28·6 months (95% CI 22·1-35·9) in the bevacizumab-erlotinib group and 24·3 months (20·4-29·1) in the erlotinib-only group (HR 0·773, 95% CI 0·562-1·065). The median time between enrolment and confirmation of a minimally important difference on the EORTC QLQ-C30 was 6·0 months (95% CI 5·2-11·3) in the bevacizumab-erlotinib group and 8·3 months (5·7-13·9) in the erlotinib-only group (p=0·47).

INTERPRETATION

The addition of bevacizumab to erlotinib did not prolong survival in patients with metastatic EGFR-mutant NSCLC, but both treatment groups had relatively long survival durations. Why the addition of bevacizumab to erlotinib did not affect overall survival is unclear, but it is possible that the beneficial effects of combination therapy were not seen because overall survival was influenced by treatment regimens used after disease progression.

FUNDING

Chugai Pharmaceutical.

Post-Progression Survival Influences Overall Survival among Patients with Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Undergoing First-Line Pembrolizumab Monotherapy

BACKGROUND

Among patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), the impact of first-line treatment on overall survival (OS) may be influenced by subsequent therapies. Thus, using patient-level data, we assessed the relationships of progression-free survival (PFS) and post-progression survival (PPS) with OS among patients with high-programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) expression undergoing first-line pembrolizumab monotherapy for NSCLC.

METHODS

We reviewed data from 133 patients with high PD-L1 expression undergoing first-line pembrolizumab monotherapy for NSCLC at 6 Japanese centers between February 2017 and December 2018. The correlations of PFS and PPS with OS were evaluated at the patient level.

RESULTS

Linear regression analyses and Spearman's rank correlation coefficient revealed that PPS was strongly correlated with OS (r = 0.76, p < 0.05, R2 = 0.65), while PFS was only moderately correlated with OS (r = 0.71, p < 0.05, and R2 = 0.4). Furthermore, PPS was significantly associated with performance status at the end of pembrolizumab monotherapy, as well as the use of platinum-based combination chemotherapy after pembrolizumab monotherapy (both p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with high PD-L1 expression undergoing first-line pembrolizumab monotherapy for NSCLC, PPS was more strongly correlated with OS, relative to the relationship between PFS and OS. Therefore, subsequent treatment appears to significantly influence OS in patients with disease progression following first-line pembrolizumab monotherapy.

Effectiveness and Safety of Adding Bevacizumab to Platinum-Based Chemotherapy as First-Line Treatment for Advanced Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer: A Meta-Analysis

Background and Objective: Previous studies have evaluated the efficacy (OS, overall survival; PFS, progression-free survival; ORR, objective response rate) and adverse events of bevacizumab combined with platinum-based chemotherapy in first-line treatment of advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) compared with chemotherapy alone. However, the results were inconsistent.

Methods: We conducted a comprehensive search of PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library for potentially eligible articles. The outcomes were evaluated in terms of risk ratio (RR) or hazard ratio (HR) and the associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Meta-analysis was performed using the Stata 12.0 software, and subgroup analyses were performed based on the treatment and bevacizumab dose.

Results: Six randomized controlled trials with 2,465 patients were included in this meta-analysis. The results demonstrated that bevacizumab significantly increased OS (HR = 0.87, 95% CI 0.79–0.96), extended PFS (HR = 0.65, 95% CI 0.54–0.77), and increased ORR (ES = 0.40, 95% CI 0.31–0.48) when added to first-line platinum-based chemotherapy in patients with advanced NSCLC. Subgroup analyses showed that only the higher dose (15 mg/kg) of bevacizumab plus carboplatin–paclitaxel significantly extended the OS and PFS, but both 7.5 mg/kg and 15 mg/kg of bevacizumab improved ORR. However, both 7.5 mg/kg and 15 mg/kg of bevacizumab could only increase PFS and ORR, but not extend OS, when added to cisplatin–gemcitabine. Bevacizumab significantly increased the risk of grade ≥3 events of febrile neutropenia, haemorrhagic events, hypertension, leukopenia, neutropenia, and proteinuria.

Conclusion: Bevacizumab significantly increases OS, PFS, and ORR when added to first-line platinum-based chemotherapy in patients with advanced NSCLC, with no new safety signals found. Moreover, bevacizumab (15 mg/kg) plus carboplatin–paclitaxel is a better alternative in increasing OS to carboplatin–paclitaxel and bevacizumab (7.5 mg/kg and 15 mg/kg) plus cisplatin–gemcitabine.

Post-Progression Survival Is Strongly Associated with Overall Survival in Patients Exhibiting Postoperative Relapse of Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Harboring Sensitizing EGFR Mutations

Background and Objective: Patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) harboring sensitizing epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutations show a good response to EGFR-tyrosine kinase inhibitors (EGFR-TKIs). The subsequent treatments influence the evaluability of the efficacy of front-line therapy on overall survival (OS). Consequently, we evaluated the associations of relapse-free survival (RFS) and post-progression survival (PPS) with OS in patients who exhibited postoperative relapse of EGFR-mutated NSCLC. Materials and Methods: We analyzed the data of 35 patients with EGFR-mutated NSCLC who underwent complete resection between January 2007 and June 2019. The correlations of RFS and PPS with OS were evaluated at the individual patient level. Results: Linear regression and Spearman’s rank correlation analyses demonstrated that the PPS highly correlated with OS (r = 0.91, p < 0.05, R² = 0.85), whereas the RFS weakly associated with OS (r = 0.36, p < 0.05, R² = 0.25). Age and performance status at relapse were significantly associated with PPS. Conclusion: Overall, PPS was more strongly and significantly associated with OS than RFS. These results suggest that the OS of our cohort may be affected by treatments, besides postoperative relapse. However, larger-scale prospective studies are needed to confirm these results.

Ultrasound-targeted microbubble destruction enhances the anti-tumor action of miR-4284 inhibitor in non-small cell lung cancer cells

MicroRNAs (miRNAs/miRs) are known to be involved in various human cancer types. Ultrasound-targeted microbubble destruction (UTMD) may improve the transfection efficiency of exogenous genes into target tissues and organs, thereby improving cancer treatment. In the present study, the role of miR-4284 in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) was investigated and the effect of UTMD-mediated inhibition of miR-4284 on tumor progression was further analyzed. The expression of miR-4284 in NSCLC cells and tissues was detected by reverse transcription-quantitative PCR. UTMD-mediated inhibition of miR-4284 was achieved by co-transfection of microvesicles and miR-4284 inhibitors into NSCLC cells. A Cell Counting Kit-8 assay was used to determine NSCLC cell proliferation, and the migration and invasion of NSCLC cells were examined by Transwell assays. Compared with that in the control group, the expression of miR-4284 was increased in NSCLC tissues and cells. Knockdown of miR-4284 in NSCLC cells inhibited cell proliferation, migration and invasion. UTMD improved the transfection efficiency of miR-4284 inhibitors in NSCLC cells, resulting in more significant inhibition of tumor cell proliferation, migration and invasion. In conclusion, the results indicated that the expression of miR-4284 was increased in clinical samples and cell lines of NSCLC and that knockdown of miR-4284 inhibited the proliferation, migration and invasion of tumor cells. UTMD-mediated miR-4284 inhibition further promoted this effect, indicating that this technique may represent a novel strategy for the treatment of NSCLC.

Clinical impact of post-progression survival on overall survival in patients receiving nivolumab monotherapy as a second-line treatment for advanced non-small cell lung cancer

Background

The effect of second‐line treatment on overall survival (OS) may be affected by subsequent treatment in patients with non‐small cell lung cancer (NSCLC); however, in such patients, the correlation between post‐progression survival (PPS) and OS is unclear. Our study assessed the correlation of progression‐free survival (PFS) and PPS with OS, using individual patient data, in advanced NSCLC patients who were treated with second‐line nivolumab monotherapy,

Methods

Between January 2016 and March 2019, we evaluated 92 NSCLC patients who received second‐line nivolumab treatment after first‐line platinum‐based combination chemotherapy. Using individual patient data, the correlations of PFS and PPS with OS were examined.

Results

Linear regression and Spearman rank correlation analysis demonstrated that PPS was strongly correlated with OS (r = 0.85, p < 0.05, R² = 0.75), while PFS was moderately correlated with OS (r = 0.65, p < 0.05, R² = 0.42). Performance status at the beginning of second‐line treatment, immune checkpoint inhibitor rechallenge, and the number of treatment regimens used post‐progression, after the second‐line treatment significantly correlated with PPS (p < 0.05). In advanced NSCLC patients who underwent second‐line treatment with nivolumab, in comparison to PFS, there was a stronger correlation between PPS and OS.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that subsequent treatment for disease progression after a second‐line nivolumab treatment had a significant impact on OS.

Impact of subsequent chemotherapy on the survival of elderly patients with extensive stage small cell lung cancer

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The prognosis of small cell lung cancer (SCLC) is still poor because of rapid recurrence, despite good response to initial chemotherapy. Additionally, patients' old ages and comorbidities are often obstacles that make it difficult to apply subsequent treatment after initial treatment. This retrospective study analyzed the correlation of post-progression survival (PPS) with overall survival (OS), and prognostic factors including comorbidities to figure out impact of subsequent chemotherapy on OS in elderly extensive disease SCLC.

METHODS

We analyzed 101 patients of age 65 years or older who were recently diagnosed with extensive disease SCLC (ED-SCLC) in Korea University Medical Center between January 1995 and December 2015. The degree of comorbidity was scored using simplified comorbidity score (SCS). Correlation between PPS, progression-free survival (PFS) and OS was analyzed using a Pearson correlation coefficient. Cox proportional hazards regression was employed to examine the influence of clinical variables on survival.

RESULTS

Median age of patients was 71 years old (range, 65 to 83). Median OS was 8.7 months (range, 0.3 to 42.7). PPS was a reliable factor on OS than PFS (R2 = 0.852, p < 0.001). Prognostic factors associated with improved survival were SCS < 9, administration > 4 cycles of first line chemotherapy and subsequent second line chemotherapy.

CONCLUSION

PPS was more correlated with OS than PFS in elderly patients with ED-SCLC. The most important prognostic factors for PPS and OS included SCS and second line chemotherapy. Patients receiving subsequent treatment had increased OS regardless of degree of comorbidity.

Are Surrogate Endpoints Unbiased Metrics in Clinical Benefit Scores of the ASCO Value Framework?

BACKGROUND

Clinical benefit scores (CBS) are key elements of the ASCO Value Framework (ASCO-VF) and are weighted based on a hierarchy of efficacy endpoints: hazard ratio for death (HR OS), median overall survival (mOS), HR for disease progression (HR PFS), median progression-free survival (mPFS), and response rate (RR). When HR OS is unavailable, the other endpoints serve as "surrogates" to calculate CBS. CBS are computed from PFS or RR in 39.6% of randomized controlled trials. This study examined whether surrogate-derived CBS offer unbiased scoring compared with HR OS-derived CBS.

METHODS

Using the ASCO-VF, CBS for advanced disease settings were computed for randomized controlled trials of oncology drug approvals by the FDA, European Medicines Agency, and Health Canada in January 2006 through December 2017. Mean differences of surrogate-derived CBS minus HR OS-derived CBS assessed the tendency of surrogate-derived CBS to overestimate or underestimate clinical benefit. Spearman's correlation evaluated the association between surrogate- and HR OS-derived CBS. Mean absolute error assessed the average difference between surrogate-derived CBS relative to HR OS-derived CBS.

RESULTS

CBS derived from mOS, HR PFS, mPFS, and RR overestimated HR OS-derived CBS in 58%, 68%, 77%, and 55% of pairs and overall by an average of 5.62 (n=90), 6.86 (n=110), 29.81 (n=101), and 3.58 (n=108), respectively. Correlation coefficients were 0.80 (95% CI, 0.70-0.86), 0.38 (0.20-0.53), 0.20 (0.00-0.38), and 0.01 (-0.18 to 0.19) for mOS-, HR PFS-, mPFS-, and RR-derived CBS, respectively, and mean absolute errors were 11.32, 12.34, 40.40, and 18.63, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the ASCO-VF algorithm, HR PFS-, mPFS-, and RR-derived CBS are suboptimal surrogates, because they were shown to be biased and poorly correlated to HR OS-derived CBS. Despite lower weighting than OS in the ASCO-VF algorithm, PFS still overestimated CBS. Simple rescaling of surrogate endpoints may not improve their validity within the ASCO-VF given their poor correlations with HR OS-derived CBS.

Progression-free survival is a suboptimal predictor for overall survival among metastatic solid tumour clinical trials

BACKGROUND

The use of overall survival (OS) as the gold standard primary end-point (PEP) in metastatic oncologic randomised controlled trials (RCTs) has declined in favour of progression-free survival (PFS) without a complete understanding of the degree to which PFS reliably predicts for OS.

METHODS

Using ClinicalTrials.gov, we identified 1239 phase III oncologic RCTs, 260 of which were metastatic solid tumour trials with a superiority-design investigating a therapeutic intervention by using either a PFS or OS PEP. Each individual trial was reviewed to quantify RCT design factors and disease-related outcomes.

RESULTS

A total of 172,133 patients were enrolled from the year 1999 to 2015 in RCTs that used PFS (56.2%, 146/260) or OS (43.8%, 114/260) as the PEP. PFS trials were more likely to restrict patient eligibility by using molecular criteria (15.1% versus 4.4%, p = 0.005) use targeted therapy (80.1% versus 67.5%, p = 0.048), accrue fewer patients (median 495 versus 619, p = 0.03), and successfully meet the trial PEP (66.9% versus 33.3%, p < 0.0001). On multiple binary logistic regression analysis, factors that predicted for PFS or OS PEP trial success included choice of PFS PEP (p < 0.0001), molecular profile restriction (p = 0.02) and single agent therapy (p = 0.02). Notably, there was only a 38% (31/82) conversion rate of positive PFS-to-OS benefit; lack of industry sponsorship predicted for PFS-to-OS signal conversion (80.0% without industry sponsorship versus 35.1% with industry sponsorship, p = 0.045).

CONCLUSIONS

A PFS PEP has suboptimal positive predictive value for OS among phase III metastatic solid tumour RCTs. Regulatory agency decisions should be judicious in using PFS results as the primary basis for approval.

Pattern-of-failure and salvage treatment analysis after chemoradiotherapy for inoperable stage III non-small cell lung cancer

Background

Loco-regional and distant failure are common in inoperable stage III non small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) after chemoradiotherapy (CRT). However, there is limited real-world data on failure pattern, patient prognosis and salvage options.

Methods

We analysed 99 consecutive patients with inoperable stage III NSCLC treated with CRT between 2011 and 2016. Follow up CT scans from date of the first-site failure were matched with the delivered radiation treatment plans. Intra-thoracic loco-regional relapse was defined as in-field (IFR) vs. out-of-field recurrence (OFR) [in- vs. outside 50Gy isodose line in the involved lung], respectively. Extracranial distant (DMs) and brain metastases (BMs) as first site of recurrence were also evaluated. Using the Kaplan-Meier method, impact of salvage surgery (sS), radiotherapy (sRT), chemotherapy (sCT) and immunotherapy (sIO) on patient survival was assessed.

Results

Median follow-up was 60.0 months. Median PFS from the end of CRT for the entire cohort was 7.5 (95% CI: 6.0–9.0 months) months. Twenty-six (26%) and 25 (25%) patients developed IFR and OFR. Median time to diagnosis of IFR and OFR was 7.2 and 6.2 months. In the entire cohort, onset of IFR and OFR did not influence patient outcome. However, in 73 (74%) patients who survived longer than 12 months after initial diagnosis, IFR was a significant negative prognostic factor with a median survival of 19.3 vs 40.0 months (p < 0.001). No patients with IFR underwent sS and/or sRT. 18 (70%) and 5 (19%) patients with IFR underwent sCT and sIO. Three (12%) patients with OFR underwent sS and are still alive with 3-year survival rate of 100%. 5 (20%) patients with OFR underwent sRT with a median survival of 71.2 vs 19.1 months (p = 0.014). Four (16%) patients with OFR received sIO with a numerical survival benefit (64.6 vs. 26.4 months, p = 0.222).

DMs and BMs were detected in 27 (27%) and 16 (16%) patients after median time of 5.8 and 5.13 months. Both had no impact on patient outcome in the entire cohort. However, patients with more than three BMs showed significantly poor OS (9.3 vs 26.0 months; p = 0.012).

Conclusions

After completion of CRT, IFR was a negative prognostic factor in those patients, who survived longer than 12 months after initial diagnosis. Patients with OFR benefit significantly from salvage local treatment. Patients with more than three BMs as first site of failure had a significantly inferior outcome.

Post-progression survival is highly linked to overall survival in patients with non-small-cell lung cancer harboring sensitive EGFR mutations treated with first-line epidermal growth factor receptor-tyrosine kinase inhibitors

Background

In patients with epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR)‐mutated advanced non‐small‐cell lung cancer (NSCLC), epidermal growth factor receptor‐tyrosine kinase inhibitor (EGFR‐TKI) treatment has shown a good response. Subsequent treatments jeopardize the ability to determine the effect of first‐line chemotherapy on overall survival (OS). Therefore, using patient‐level data, we aimed to study the associations of progression‐free survival (PFS) and post‐progression survival (PPS) with OS after first‐line EGFR‐TKI treatment in patients with EGFR‐mutated NSCLC.

Methods

Between November 2006 and December 2016, we analyzed 92 patients with EGFR‐mutated NSCLC treated with first‐line EGFR‐TKI. The correlations of PFS and PPS with OS were analyzed for each patient.

Results

Spearman's rank correlation and linear regression analyzes showed that PPS correlated highly with OS (r = 0.85, P < 0.05, R² = 0.75), whereas PFS correlated weakly with OS (r = 0.76, P < 0.05, R² = 0.50). The best responses after first‐line and second‐line treatments were significantly associated with PPS.

Conclusions

PPS has a higher impact on OS than PFS in patients with EGFR‐mutated NSCLC treated with first‐line EGFR‐TKIs. These outcomes suggest that the OS in this patient group may be affected by treatments following first‐line chemotherapy; however, this remains to be verified in prospective trials.

Chronological Trends in Progression-Free, Overall, and Post-Progression Survival in First-Line Therapy for Advanced NSCLC

BACKGROUND

There is a debate about the merits of progression-free survival (PFS) versus overall survival (OS) as primary endpoints in NSCLC. It has been postulated that post-progression therapy may influence OS in both arms. To investigate this issue, we analyzed chronological trends in PFS and OS in advanced NSCLC using restricted mean survival times (RMSTs).

METHODS

We digitized survival curves from first-line phase III trials published between 1998 and 2015 in 13 leading journals to compute RMSTs for PFS and OS at three truncation landmarks (5, 12, and 18 months).

RESULTS

Among the 161 trials identified, RMSTs could be computed for both endpoints in 102, 97, and 82 trials for the 5-, 12-, and 18-month truncation landmarks, respectively. Post-progression survival in the control arm, quantified as mean OS minus mean PFS truncated at 18 months, was on average 3.3 months between 1998 and 2003, 4.4 months between 2004 and 2009, and 5.4 months between 2010 and 2015. This increase was due to increasing RMST for OS over time, with no increase in RMST for PFS. The average within-trial difference in RMSTs between experimental and control arm was close to 0 for OS and less than 1 month for PFS.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a progressive increase in post-progression survival in NSCLC trials, likely from salvage therapy. These results question both PFS and OS as sensitive endpoints in first-line trials, but suggest that the outlook for patients is improving regardless of within-trial gains.

Safety and effectiveness of classical and alternative sunitinib dosing schedules for metastatic renal cell carcinoma: a meta-analysis

The optimal dosing schedule to maintain the effectiveness of sunitinib for metastatic renal cell carcinoma - while reducing toxicity - remains an important clinical question. A meta-analysis of randomized trials and observational studies assessed the relative treatment effects of 4/2, 2/1 and transitional-2/1 schedules on outcomes and adverse events using Bayesian network meta-analysis methods. Treatment with 2/1 reduced the risk of disease progression or death by 25% and had lower odds of hand-and-foot syndrome compared with the 4/2. A numerical but not 'statistical' benefit in progression-free survival was observed with the transitional-2/1 compared with 4/2. Alternative schedules with the 2/1 and transitional-2/1 may be more clinically beneficial in metastatic renal cell carcinoma than the 4/2 schedule.

Trends in endpoint selection and result interpretation in advanced non-small cell lung cancer clinical trials published between 2000 and 2012: A retrospective cohort study

Background

The objective of this review was to investigate trends in clinical trial design, specifically, the primary outcomes used, interpretation of results, and the magnitude of the benefits described in phase III controlled clinical trials in the first‐line treatment of patients with advanced non‐small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

Methods

Seventy‐six trials published between 2000 and 2012 were selected from a total of 122 identified in a structured search.

Results

Overall survival (OS) was evaluated as the primary study endpoint in 50 (65.8%) trials, followed by progression‐free survival (PFS) in 15 (19.7%), and other variables, such as toxicity, quality of life (QoL), and response rate in 11 (14.5%). Ten (66.7%) out of 15 clinical trials using PFS as the primary endpoint were published between 2010 and 2012. Median overall survival (mOS) was 9.90 months (interquartile range: 3.5) with an increase of 0.384 months per year of publication (P < 0.001). A statistically significant improvement in mOS was obtained in only 13 (18.8%) trials. A total of 41 (53.9%) studies concluded that the result was positive. Of these, only 16 (39.1%) showed a statistically significant benefit in OS. QoL was assessed in 46 trials (60.5%) and of these, 10 (21.7%) reported significant improvements.

Conclusions

These findings raise important questions about how clinical benefits are measured in clinical trials in advanced NSCLC. Appropriate clinically relevant outcome variables should be established and validated, and post‐marketing studies should be requested by regulatory authorities to ensure meaningful clinical benefits in OS and QoL.

HELPER study: A phase II trial of continuous infusion of endostar combined with concurrent etoposide plus cisplatin and radiotherapy for treatment of unresectable stage III non-small-cell lung cancer

PURPOSE

The prognosis of unresectable stage III non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) was poor even after concurrent chemoradiotherapy. There remains a great need to develop novel therapeutic agents in combination with CCRT to improve outcomes. This prospective study sought to evaluate the efficacy and toxicities of the addition of endostar, an anti-angiogenesis agent, to concurrent etoposide, cisplatin (EP) and radiotherapy for treatment of patients with NSCLC.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Patients with untreated pathologically confirmed inoperable stage III NSCLC were eligible. Radiation at doses of 60-66 Gy, four cycles of endostar (7.5 mg/m²/24 h × 120 h, 14 days/cycle), and two cycles of EP (etoposide 50 mg/m² on days 1-5 and cisplatin 50 mg/m² on days 1 and 8, 28 days/cycle) were delivered. The primary endpoint was progression-free survival (PFS). The secondary endpoints were response rate and overall survival (OS), locoregional relapse-free survival (LRFS) distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) and adverse events (AE).

RESULTS

From November 2012 to June 2015, 73 patients were enrolled, and 67 patients were evaluable. The median age was 59 years. Sixty-six percent of the patients had squamous cell carcinoma. Grade ≥3 AEs occurred in 58.2% of the patients. The most common Grade ≥3 AE was leucopenia (44.8%). The response rate was 76.1%. The median times of PFS and OS were 13.3 months and 34.7 months, respectively. The 2-year PFS, OS, LRFS and DMFS rates were 34.8%, 59.9%, 54.7% and 68.5%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

For patients with unresectable stage III NSCLC, continuous intravenous endostar in combination with concurrent EP and radiotherapy did not prolong median PFS, although it got preferable OS, promising 2-year PFS with tolerable toxicities.

Effect of Crossover in Oncology Clinical Trials on Evidence Levels in Early Benefit Assessment in Germany

BACKGROUND

In oncology clinical trials, crossover is used frequently but may lead to uncertainties regarding treatment effects.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the handling of evidence from crossover trials by the European Medicines Agency (EMA) and the German Federal Joint Committee (G-BA).

METHODS

For oncology medicines with early benefit assessments before January 2015, presence of crossover, clinical data, EMA requests for additional data, and G-BA benefit ratings/evidence levels were analyzed from manufacturers' dossiers, G-BA appraisals, European Public Assessment Reports, and original publications.

RESULTS

Eleven of 21 benefit assessments included crossover trials. Significant intergroup differences (P < 0.05) in overall survival (OS) were noted in 7 of 11 trials with and 7 of 10 without crossover. For 6 of 11 medicines with crossover, these were demonstrated before crossover. Treatment effects generally worsened with increasing proportions of crossover. The EMA requested additional data more frequently if crossover was performed, particularly if no OS data were available before crossover. The G-BA granted a considerable benefit to 73% of medicines with crossover and 40% of those without. Evidence levels were intermediate for 50% and 75%, respectively. None of the medicines received the highest evidence level.

CONCLUSIONS

In G-BA appraisals, oncology medicines with crossover received better additional benefit ratings, but were assigned lower evidence levels, than those without. The five medicines with crossover after progression were assigned lower evidence levels than the six medicines with crossover after demonstration of superior OS, indicating that the way in which crossover is implemented may be one factor influencing the assignment of evidence levels by the G-BA.

Do immune checkpoint inhibitors need new studies methodology?

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) have widely reshaped the treatment paradigm of advanced cancer patients. Although multiple studies are currently evaluating these drugs as monotherapies or in combination, the choice of the most accurate statistical methods, endpoints and clinical trial designs to estimate the benefit of ICI remains an unsolved methodological issue. Considering the unconventional patterns of response or progression [i.e., pseudoprogression, hyperprogression (HPD)] observed with ICI, the application in clinical trials of novel response assessment tools (i.e., iRECIST) able to capture delayed benefit of immunotherapies and/or to quantify tumor dynamics and kinetics over time is an unmet clinical need. In addition, the proportional hazard model and the conventional measures of survival [i.e., median overall or progression free survival (PFS) and hazard ratios (HR)] might usually result inadequate in the estimation of the long-term benefit observed with ICI. For this reason, innovative methodologies such as milestone analysis, restricted mean survival time (RMST), parametric models (i.e., Weibull distribution, weighted log rank test), should be systematically investigated in clinical trials in order to adequately quantify the fraction of patients who are "cured", represented by the tails of the survival curves. Regarding predictive biomarkers, in particular PD-L1 expression, the integration and harmonization of the existing assays are urgently needed to provide clinicians with reliable diagnostic tests and to improve patient selection for immunotherapy. Finally, developing original and high-quality study designs, such as adaptive or basket biomarker enriched clinical trials, included in large collaborative platforms with multiple active sites and cross-sector collaboration, represents the successful strategy to optimally assess the benefit of ICI in the next future.

The effect of post-progression survival on overall survival among patients with sensitive relapse of small cell lung cancer

Recent studies have suggested that, among patients with advanced lung cancer, subsequent treatment after failure of first-line or second-line chemotherapy has a greater effect on overall survival (OS) than tumor shrinkage or progression-free survival (PFS). However, no studies have examined this issue among patients with sensitive relapse of small cell lung cancer (SCLC). We retrospectively evaluate 77 patients with sensitive relapse of SCLC who received second-line chemotherapy after first-line platinum doublet chemotherapy between January 1999 and November 2013. The analyses included patient characteristics, treatment parameters, tumor shrinkage, PFS, post-progression survival (PPS), and OS. Spearman rank correlation analysis and linear regression analysis revealed that PPS was strongly correlated with OS (r = 0.91, p < 0.01, R² = 0.96), PFS was moderately correlated with OS (r = 0.58, p < 0.01, R² = 0.28), and tumor shrinkage was weakly correlated with OS (r = 0.34, p < 0.01, R² = 0.12). A multivariate Cox proportional hazards model with a stepwise regression procedure revealed that PPS was significantly associated with age at the start of second-line chemotherapy, best response to second-line and third-line chemotherapy, and the number of regimens after progression beyond second-line chemotherapy (p < 0.05). These findings suggest that PPS has a stronger effect than PFS on OS among patients with sensitive relapse of SCLC. Thus, response to second-line chemotherapy and subsequent treatment for disease progression after second-line chemotherapy may be important factors that influence OS.

Do Surrogate Endpoints Better Correlate with Overall Survival in Studies That Did Not Allow for Crossover or Reported Balanced Postprogression Treatments? An Application in Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

BACKGROUND

In previous studies, correlation between overall survival (OS) and surrogate endpoints like objective response rate (ORR) or progression-free survival (PFS) in advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) was poor. This can be biased by crossover and postprogression treatments.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the relationship between these two surrogate endpoints and OS in advanced NSCLC studies that did not allow for crossover or reported balanced post-progression treatments.

METHODS

A systematic review in patients with advanced NSCLC receiving second- and further-line therapy was performed. The relationship between the absolute difference in ORR or median PFS (mPFS) and the absolute difference in median OS (mOS) was assessed using the correlation coefficient (R) and weighted regression models. The analysis was repeated in predefined data cuts based on crossover and balance of postprogression treatments. When the upper limit of R's 95% confidence interval (CI) was more than 0.7, the surrogate threshold effect (STE) was estimated.

RESULTS

In total, 146 randomized clinical trials (43,061 patients) were included. The mean ORR, mPFS, and mOS were 12.2% ± 11.2%, 3.2 ± 1.3 months, and 9.6 ± 4.1 months, respectively. The correlation coefficients of ORR and mPFS were 0.181 (95% CI 0.016-0.337) and 0.254 (95% CI 0.074-0.418), respectively, with mOS. Nevertheless, in trials that did not allow crossover and reported balanced postprogression treatments, the correlation coefficients of ORR and mPFS were 0.528 (95% CI 0.081-0.798) and 0.778 (95% CI 0.475-0.916), respectively, with mOS. On the basis of STE estimation, in trials showing significant treatment effect size of 41.0% or more ORR or 4.15 or more mPFS months, OS benefit can be expected with sufficient certainty.

CONCLUSIONS

Crossover and postprogression treatments may bias the relationship between surrogate endpoints and OS. Presented STE calculation can be used to interpret treatment effect on either ORR or PFS when used as primary endpoints.

Survival End Points for Huntington Disease Trials Prior to a Motor Diagnosis

Importance

Predictive genetic testing in Huntington disease (HD) enables therapeutic trials in HTT gene expansion mutation carriers prior to a motor diagnosis. Progression-free survival (PFS) is the composite of a motor diagnosis or a progression event, whichever comes first.

Objective

To determine if PFS provides feasible sample sizes for trials with mutation carriers who have not yet received a motor diagnosis.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This study uses data from the 2-phase, longitudinal cohort studies called Track and from a longitudinal cohort study called the Cooperative Huntington Observational Research Trial (COHORT). Track had 167 prediagnosis mutation carriers and 156 noncarriers, whereas COHORT had 366 prediagnosis mutation carriers and noncarriers. Track studies were conducted at 4 sites in 4 countries (Canada, France, England, and the Netherlands) from which data were collected from January 17, 2008, through November 17, 2014. The COHORT was conducted at 38 sites in 3 countries (Australia, Canada, and the United States) from which data were collected from February 14, 2006, through December 31, 2009. Results from the Track data were externally validated with data from the COHORT. The required sample size was estimated for a 2-arm prediagnosis clinical trial. Data analysis took place from May 1, 2016, to June 10, 2017.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary end point is PFS. Huntington disease progression events are defined for the Unified Huntington's Disease Rating Scale total motor score, total functional capacity, symbol digit modalities test, and Stroop word test.

Results

Of Track's 167 prediagnosis mutation carriers, 93 (55.6%) were women, and the mean (SD) age was 40.06 (8.92) years; of the 156 noncarriers, 87 (55.7%) were women, and the mean (SD) age was 45.58 (10.30) years. Of the 366 COHORT participants, 229 (62.5%) were women and the mean (SD) age was 42.21 (12.48) years. The PFS curves of the Track mutation carriers showed good external validity with the COHORT mutation carriers after adjusting for initial progression. For required sample size, PFS with a motor diagnosis or total motor score progression required about 4 times fewer participants than a motor diagnosis alone. Including additional cognitive progression events further reduced the number. For example, a 3-year trial with 10% attrition and a treatment effect of 50% requires a total of 661 with motor diagnosis as the survival end point but only 177 with a total motor score PFS.

Conclusions and Relevance

Reasonably sized prediagnosis Huntington disease trials can be planned with PFS, and there is evidence of generalizability of this approach.

Factors associated with disease-specific survival of patients with non-small cell lung cancer

Objective:

Lung cancer is a global public health problem and is associated with high mortality. Lung cancer could be largely avoided by reducing the prevalence of smoking. The objective of this study was to analyze the effects of social, behavioral, and clinical factors on the survival time of patients with non-small cell lung cancer treated at Cancer Hospital I of the José Alencar Gomes da Silva National Cancer Institute, located in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, between 2000 and 2003.

Methods:

This was a retrospective hospital cohort study involving 1,194 patients. The 60-month disease-specific survival probabilities were calculated with the Kaplan-Meier method for three stage groups. The importance of the studied factors was assessed with a hierarchical theoretical model after adjustment by Cox multiple regression.

Results:

The estimated 60-month specific-disease lethality rate was 86.0%. The 60-month disease-specific survival probability ranged from 25.0% (stages I/II) to 2.5% (stage IV). The performance status, the intention to treat, and the initial treatment modality were the major prognostic factors identified in the study population.

Conclusions:

In this cohort of patients, the disease-specific survival probabilities were extremely low. We identified no factors that could be modified after the diagnosis in order to improve survival. Primary prevention, such as reducing the prevalence of smoking, is still the best method to reduce the number of people who will suffer the consequences of lung cancer.

Objetivo:

O câncer de pulmão é um problema de saúde pública global e é associado a elevada mortalidade. Ele poderia ser evitado em grande parte com a redução da prevalência do tabagismo. O objetivo deste estudo foi analisar os efeitos de fatores sociais, comportamentais e clínicos sobre o tempo de sobrevida de pacientes com câncer de pulmão de células não pequenas atendidos, entre 2000 e 2003, no Hospital do Câncer I do Instituto Nacional de Câncer José Alencar Gomes da Silva, localizado na cidade do Rio de Janeiro.

Métodos:

Estudo retrospectivo de coorte hospitalar com 1.194 pacientes. As probabilidades de sobrevida doença-específica em 60 meses foram calculadas com o método de Kaplan-Meier para três grupos de estadiamento. A importância dos fatores estudados foi avaliada por um modelo teórico hierarquizado após o ajuste de modelos de regressão múltipla de Cox.

Resultados:

Foi estimada uma taxa de letalidade doença-específica em 60 meses de 86,0%. A probabilidade de sobrevida doença-específica em 60 meses variou de 25,0%, nos estádios iniciais, a 2,5%, no estádio IV. A situação funcional, a intenção e a modalidade do tratamento inicial foram os principais fatores prognósticos identificados na população estudada.

Conclusões:

As probabilidades de sobrevida doença-específica estimadas na amostra estudada foram muito baixas, e não foram identificados fatores que pudessem ser modificados após o diagnóstico visando uma melhora da sobrevida. A prevenção primária, como a redução da prevalência do tabagismo, ainda é a melhor forma de evitar que mais pessoas sofram as consequências do câncer de pulmão.

Clinical significance of post-progression survival in lung cancer

Progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) are two common endpoints in cancer trials. OS is usually preferred, because it is reliable, precise, meaningful, and can easily be documented. However, subsequent lines of therapy might confound the effects of first-line treatment on OS. Whether PFS or OS is the more appropriate endpoint in clinical trials of metastatic cancer remains controversial. Previous reports on lung cancer have shown that an increase in PFS does not necessarily result in an increase in OS; however, post-progression survival (PPS) is strongly associated with OS after early-line treatment. The significance of PPS after first and second-line therapy at the individual level in patients with advanced lung cancer has also recently been reported. Findings of previous reports indicate that PPS is highly associated with OS after first and second-line chemotherapy in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer and small cell lung cancer, whereas PFS is only moderately associated with OS. Therefore, subsequent treatment after disease progression following early-line treatments may greatly influence OS. This review demonstrates that even in advanced lung cancer, PPS, rather than PFS, has become more strongly associated with OS over the years, potentially because of intensive post-study treatments. As a result of the increasing impact of PPS on OS, a PFS-related advantage does not necessarily indicate an OS-related advantage. Thus, the prolongation of PPS might limit the classical role of OS for assessing true efficacy derived from early-line chemotherapy in future clinical trials.

CT-guided aspiration lung biopsy for EGFR and ALK gene mutation analysis of lung cancer

The present study investigated the rates of detection and the positive rates of computed tomography (CT)-guided aspiration of lung biopsy for epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) gene and anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) gene, and analyzed the relationship between gene mutation and clinical characteristics to improve the rate of related factors of gene detection. The clinical data and CT-guided aspiration biopsy specimen of 250 patients with lung cancer. Data showed that the rate of EGFR gene mutation was 41.2% (103/250) in biopsy specimens of non-small cell lung cancer patients. The rate of EGFR gene mutation of adenocarcinoma (56.6%, P<0.01) was higher than other types of lung cancer. ALK gene mutation of patients in phase IV was obviously higher than that of patients not in phase IV (18.5 and 1.8%, P<0.01). The rate of EGFR gene detection was 83.2% (208/250). The rate of detection of tumor cells >50 was higher. The rate of ALK protein immunohistochemical detection was 87.2%, and the rate of coarse needle biopsy detection was higher than that of the fine needle (91 and 72%, P<0.01), but the positive rate between coarse needle biopsy and fine needle biopsy had no difference (P>0.05). The rate of detection was associated with tumor cell number (P<0.05), and had no correlation with the proportion of tumor cells (P>0.05). The rate of detection of EGFR and ALK genes was associated with tumor cell number and had no correlation with the proportion of tumor cells. The rate of detection is higher when the number of tumor cells is more than 50.

Treatment Paradigms for Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer at Academic Medical Centers: Involvement in Clinical Trial Endpoint Design

Selection of appropriate clinical endpoints for examining the efficacy of investigational agents for non‐small cell lung cancer is of vital importance in clinical trial design. This review provides an overview of the study designs of clinical trials for approved agents in non‐small cell lung cancer and focuses on the validity of alternative endpoints for such trials.

Based on the positive results of various clinical trials, treatment options for non‐small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) have expanded greatly over the last 25 years. While regulatory approvals of chemotherapeutic agents for NSCLC have largely been based on improvements in overall survival, recent approvals of many targeted agents for NSCLC (afatinib, crizotinib, ceritinib, osimertinib) have been based on surrogate endpoints such as progression‐free survival and objective response. As such, selection of appropriate clinical endpoints for examining the efficacy of investigational agents for NSCLC is of vital importance in clinical trial design. This review provides an overview of clinical trial endpoints previously utilized for approved agents for NSCLC and highlights the key efficacy results for these trials. Trends for more recent approvals in NSCLC, including those for the immunotherapeutic agents nivolumab and pembrolizumab, are also discussed. The results of a correlative analysis of endpoints from 18 clinical trials that supported approvals of investigational agents in clinical trials for NSCLC are also presented.

Implications for Practice.

While improving survival remains the ultimate goal of oncology clinical trials, overall survival may not always be the most feasible or appropriate endpoint to assess patient response. Recently, several investigational agents, both targeted agents and immunotherapies, have gained U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval in non‐small cell lung cancer based on alternate endpoints such as progression‐free survival or response rate. An understanding of the assessment of response and trial endpoint choice is important for future oncology clinical trial design.

Post-Progression Survival Associated with Overall Survival in Patients with Advanced Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Receiving Docetaxel Monotherapy as Second-Line Chemotherapy

BACKGROUND

In patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC), the effects of second-line chemotherapy on overall survival (OS) might be confounded by subsequent therapies. Therefore, using individual-level data, we aimed to determine the relationships between progression-free survival (PFS) and post-progression survival (PPS) with OS in patients with advanced NSCLC treated with docetaxel monotherapy as second-line chemotherapy.

METHODS

Between April 2002 and December 2014, data from 86 patients with advanced NSCLC who underwent second-line docetaxel monotherapy following first-line treatment with platinum combination chemotherapy were analyzed. The relationships of PFS and PPS with OS were analyzed at the individual level.

RESULTS

Spearman rank correlation and linear regression analyses showed that PPS was strongly associated with OS (r = 0.86, p < 0.05, R2 = 0.93), whereas PFS was moderately correlated with OS (r = 0.50, p < 0.05, R2 = 0.21). Performance status at the end of second-line treatment and the number of regimens after progression beyond second-line chemotherapy were significantly associated with PPS (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with advanced NSCLC with unknown oncogenic driver mutations undergoing docetaxel monotherapy as second-line chemotherapy, when compared with PFS, PPS had a stronger association with OS. This finding suggests that subsequent treatment after disease progression following second-line docetaxel monotherapy has a significant influence on OS.

Trends in phase III randomized controlled clinical trials on the treatment of advanced non-small-cell lung cancer

The objective of this review was to analyze trends in outcomes and in the quality of phase III randomized controlled trials on advanced NSCLC published between 2000 and 2012, selecting 76 trials from a total of 122 retrieved in a structured search. Over the study period, the number of randomized patients per trial increased by 14 per year (P = 0.178). The sample size significantly increased between 2000 and 2012 in trials of targeted agents (460.1 vs. 740.8 patients, P = 0.009), trials of >1 drug (360.4 vs. 584.8, P = 0.014), and those including patients with good performance status (675.3 vs. 425.6; P = 0.003). Quality of life was assessed in 46 trials (60.5%), and significant improvements were reported in 10 of these (21.7%). Platinum-based regimens were the most frequently investigated (86.8% of trials). Molecular-targeted agents were studied in 25.0% of chemotherapy arms, and the percentage of trials including these agents increased each year. The median (interquartile range) overall survival (MOS) was 9.90 (3.5) months with an increase of 0.384 months per year of publication (P < 0.001). A statistically significant improvement in MOS was obtained in only 13 (18.8%) trials. The median progression-free survival was 4.9 (1.9) months, with a nonsignificant increase of 0.026 months per year (P > 0.05). There has been a continuous but modest improvement in the survival of patients with advanced NSCLC over the past 12 years. Nevertheless, the quality of clinical trials and the benefit in outcomes should be carefully considered before the incorporation of novel approaches into clinical practice.

Clinical impact of post-progression survival on overall survival in elderly patients with extensive disease small-cell lung cancer

Background

The effects of first‐line chemotherapy on overall survival (OS) might be confounded by subsequent therapies in patients with small‐cell lung cancer (SCLC). Therefore, the objective of our study was to determine the relationships between progression‐free survival (PFS) or post‐progression survival (PPS) and OS after first‐line chemotherapy in elderly patients with extensive disease‐SCLC (ED‐SCLC), using individual level data.

Methods

Between July 1998 and December 2014, we analyzed 57 cases of elderly patients with ED‐SCLC who were treated with carboplatin and etoposide as first‐line chemotherapy. The relationships between PFS and PPS with OS were analyzed at an individual level.

Results

Spearman rank correlation and linear regression analyses showed that PPS was strongly correlated with OS (r = 0.92, P < 0.05, R² = 0.83) and PFS was moderately correlated with OS (r = 0.76, P < 0.05, R² = 0.25). The best response at second‐line treatment and the number of regimens after progression beyond first‐line chemotherapy were both significantly associated with PPS (P < 0.05).

Conclusions

PPS has a stronger impact on OS than PFS in elderly ED‐SCLC patients after first‐line chemotherapy. In addition, the response at second‐line treatment and the number of additional regimens after first‐line treatment are significant independent prognostic factors for PPS. These results suggest that OS in elderly ED‐SCLC patients may be influenced by treatments subsequent to first‐line chemotherapy; however, this remains to be verified with prospective studies.

Clinical Significance of the Relationship between Progression-Free Survival or Postprogression Survival and Overall Survival in Patients with Extensive Disease-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Treated with Carboplatin plus Etoposide

Background. The effects of first-line chemotherapy on overall survival (OS) might be confounded by subsequent therapies in patients with small-cell lung cancer (SCLC). Therefore, by using individual-level data, we aimed to determine the relationships between progression-free survival (PFS) or postprogression survival (PPS) and OS after first-line chemotherapies in patients with extensive disease-SCLC (ED-SCLC) treated with carboplatin plus etoposide. Methods. Between July 1998 and December 2014, we analyzed 63 cases of patients with ED-SCLC who were treated with carboplatin and etoposide as first-line chemotherapy. The relationships of PFS and PPS with OS were analyzed at the individual level. Results. Spearman rank correlation analysis and linear regression analysis showed that PPS was strongly correlated with OS (r = 0.90, p < 0.05, and R² = 0.71) and PFS was moderately correlated with OS (r = 0.72, p < 0.05, and R² = 0.62). Type of relapse (refractory/sensitive) and the number of regimens administered after disease progression after the first-line chemotherapy were both significantly associated with PPS (p < 0.05). Conclusions. PPS has a stronger relationship with OS than does PFS in ED-SCLC patients who have received first-line chemotherapy. These results suggest that treatments administered after first-line chemotherapy affect the OS of ED-SCLC patients treated with carboplatin plus etoposide.

Multitrial Evaluation of Progression-Free Survival as a Surrogate End Point for Overall Survival in First-Line Extensive-Stage Small-Cell Lung Cancer

INTRODUCTION

We previously reported that progression-free survival (PFS) may be a candidate surrogate end point for overall survival (OS) in first-line extensive-stage small-cell lung cancer (ES-SCLC) using data from three randomized trials (Foster, Cancer 2011). In this validation study (N0424-Alliance), we assessed the patient-level and trial-level surrogacy of PFS using data from seven new first-line phase II/III ES-SCLC trials and across all 10 trials as well (seven new, three previous).

METHODS

Individual patient data were utilized across the seven new trials (2259 patients) and all 10 trials (2855 patients). Patient-level surrogacy (Kendall's τ) was assessed using the Clayton copula bivariate survival model. Trial-level surrogacy was assessed through association of the log hazard ratios on OS and PFS across trials, including weighted (by trial size) least squares regression (WLS R²) of Cox model effects and correlation of the copula effects (copula R²). The minimum effect on the surrogate (MES) needed to detect a nonzero treatment effect on OS was also calculated.

RESULTS

The median OS and PFS across all 10 trials were 9.8 and 5.9 months, respectively. PFS showed strong surrogacy within the 7 new trials (copula R² = 0.90 [standard error = 0.27], WLS R² = 0.83 [95% confidence interval: 0.43, 0.95]; MES = 0.67, and Kendall's τ = 0.58) and across all 10 trials (copula R² = 0.81 [standard errors = 0.25], WLS R² = 0.77 [95% confidence interval: 0.47-0.91], MES = 0.70, and Kendall's τ = 0.57).

CONCLUSIONS

PFS demonstrated strong surrogacy for OS in first-line ES-SCLC based on this external validation study of individual patient data. PFS is a good alternative end point to OS and should be considered when resource constraints (time or patient) might make it useful or desirable in place of OS. Additional analyses are needed to assess its appropriateness for targeted agents in this disease setting.

Volume-based growth tumor kinetics as a prognostic biomarker for patients with EGFR mutant lung adenocarcinoma undergoing EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitor therapy: a case control study

BACKGROUND

We aim to determine whether volumetric assessment has the potential to serve as a prognostic biomarker, and to assess the relationship between longitudinal tumor data during treatment and prognosis in lung adenocarcinoma patients with sensitizing EGFR mutations treated with EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI).

METHODS

We retrospectively assessed patients with EGFR-mutant stage IV lung adenocarcinoma who were treated with EGFR TKIs until disease progression. CT studies of 106 patients were quantitatively analyzed in terms of tumor size and volume by comparing baseline and follow-up CT scans obtained at every two treatment cycles. Tumor response was quantified using longitudinal measurements, and tumor growth kinetics was determined. Correlation with early surrogate parameters for tumor response evaluation such as change in size, volume, and response rate was performed. The Cox-proportional hazard model and Log-rank test were used to predict overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

Responders based on the percent change in volume after four cycles of TKI therapy had a higher OS than non-responders (P = 0.035). The percent of volume and size changes after four cycles of TKI therapy were significantly correlated with TTP (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Volume measurements and corresponding rates of growth appear to be helpful adjuncts for predicting survival in patients undergoing EGFR-TKI therapy.

Verification of the correlation between progression-free survival and overall survival considering magnitudes of survival post- progression in the treatment of four types of cancer

BACKGROUND

With development and application of new and effective anti-cancer drugs, the median survival post-progression (SPP) is often prolonged, and the role of the median SPP on surrogacy performance should be considered. To evaluate the impact of the median SPP on the correlation between progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS), we performed simulations for treatment of four types of cancer, advanced gastric cancer (AGC), metastatic colorectal cancer (MCC), glioblastoma (GBM), and advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (ANSCLC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The effects of the median SPP on the statistical properties of OS and the correlation between PFS and OS were assessed. Further, comparisons were made between the surrogacy performance based on real data from meta-analyses and simulation results with similar scenarios.

RESULTS

The probability of a significant gain in OS and HR for OS was decreased by an increase of the SPP/ OS ratio or by a decrease of observed treatment benefit for PFS. Similarly, for each of the four types of cancer, the correlation between PFS and OS was reduced as the median SPP increased from 2 to 12 months. Except for ANSCLC, for which the median SPP was equal to the true value, the simulated correlation between PFS and OS was consistent with the values derived from meta-analyses for the other three kinds of cancer. Further, for these three types of cancer, when the median SPP was controlled at a designated level (i.e., < 4 months for AGC, < 12 months for MCC, and <6 months for GBM), the correlation between PFS and OS was strong; and the power of OS reached 34.9% at the minimum.

CONCLUSIONS

PFS is an acceptable surrogate endpoint for OS under the condition of controlling SPPs for AGC, MCC, and GBM at their limit levels; a similar conclusion cannot be made for ANSCLC.

Clinical impact of post-progression survival on overall survival in patients with limited-stage disease small cell lung cancer after first-line chemoradiotherapy

Background

The effects of first-line chemoradiotherapy on overall survival (OS) may be confounded by subsequent lines of therapy in patients with limited-stage disease small cell lung cancer (LD-SCLC). Therefore, we aimed to determine the relationships between progression-free survival (PFS), post-progression survival (PPS) and OS after first-line chemoradiotherapy in LD-SCLC patients.

Patients and methods.

We retrospectively analyzed 71 LD-SCLC patients with performance status (PS) 0–2 who received first-line chemoradiotherapy and had disease recurrence between September 2002 and March 2013 at Shizuoka Cancer Center (Shizuoka, Japan). We determined the correlation between PFS and OS and between PPS and OS at the individual level. In addition, we performed univariate and multivariate analyses to identify significant prognostic factors of PPS.

Results

OS is more strongly correlated with PPS (Spearman’s r = 0.86, R² = 0.72, p < 0.05) than PFS (Spearman’s r = 0.46, R² = 0.38, p < 0.05). In addition, the response to second-line treatments, the presence of distant metastases at recurrence and the number of additional regimens after first-line chemoradiotherapy were significant independent prognostic factors for PPS.

Conclusions

PPS has more impact on OS than PFS in recurrent LD-SCLC patients with good PS at beginning of the treatment. Moreover, treatments administered after first-line chemoradiotherapy may affect their OS. However, larger multicenter studies are needed to validate these findings.

Statistical controversies in clinical research: end points other than overall survival are vital for regulatory approval of anticancer agents

There is an ongoing debate about the relative merits of overall survival (OS) and other metrics that can be used as primary end points in cancer clinical trials. Although survival time is arguably the most objective metric for assessing the efficacy of anticancer treatment, OS as a clinical-trial end point needs to be conceptually distinguished from increased survival time as a goal desired by patients, clinicians and public-health policy makers. OS presents several drawbacks as a primary end point that threatens to hamper further drug development, including the increase in the number of patients and the much longer follow-up required in a clinical trial. In many settings of first-line therapy for metastatic disease, median OS is currently two to four times longer than median progression-free survival. As a result, the analysis of OS may be increasingly confounded by the effect of salvage therapies used after disease progression. In this review, we use straightforward statistical reasoning and examples from the oncology literature to argue that OS should no longer be the primary end point of most future phase III cancer clinical trials that aim at assessing the efficacy of novel therapies in the setting of metastatic disease.

The efficacy and safety of pemetrexed-based doublet therapy compared to pemetrexed alone for the second-line treatment of advanced non-small-cell lung cancer: an updated meta-analysis

Background

Pemetrexed is currently recommended as the second-line treatment for patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). However, it is unclear whether pemetrexed-based doublet therapy improves treatment efficacy and safety. Thus, this meta-analysis was performed to resolve this controversial question.

Methods

Electronic databases, including PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched for relevant articles before April 2015. Hazard ratios (HRs) were used to estimate overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS), and odds ratios (ORs) were used to analyze the overall response rate (ORR) and grade ≥3 toxicities. Subgroup analysis, sensitivity analysis, and publication bias were also evaluated.

Results

A total of 2,519 patients from ten randomized controlled trials were included. Compared to pemetrexed alone, PFS and ORR significantly improved in the pemetrexed-based doublet group (HR, 0.86; 95% CI [confidence interval], 0.75–0.99; P=0.038; and OR, 1.98; 95% CI, 1.25–3.12; P=0.003, respectively). However, no statistically significant differences in OS were observed between groups (HR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.83–1.02; P=0.132). In addition, subgroup analyses indicated that improved OS was only observed in nonsquamous NSCLC patients who received the combination of pemetrexed and erlotinib. An increasing incidence of grade ≥3 neutropenia and thrombocytopenia was observed in the pemetrexed-based doublet group.

Conclusion

Among patients with advanced NSCLC, pemetrexed-based doublet treatment tended to be associated with improved PFS, ORR, and increased toxicity, but not OS.

Bias in progression-free survival analysis due to intermittent assessment of progression

Cancer clinical trials are routinely designed to assess the effect of treatment on disease progression and death, often in terms of a composite endpoint called progression‐free survival. When progression status is known only at periodic assessment times, the progression time is interval censored, and complications arise in the analysis of progression‐free survival. Despite the advances in methods for dealing with interval‐censored data, naive methods such as right‐endpoint imputation are widely adopted in this setting. We examine the asymptotic and empirical properties of estimators of the marginal progression‐free survival functions and associated treatment effects under this scheme. Specifically, we explore the determinants of the asymptotic bias and point out that there is typically a loss in power of tests for treatment effects. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Detecting overall survival benefit derived from survival postprogression rather than progression-free survival

Broglio and Berry (2009) examined the impact of survival postprogression (SPP) on overall survival (OS) when progression-free survival (PFS) was used to assess treatment effect in metastatic cancer. Their simulation studies found no statistical difference in OS because of dilution effect from SPP, although there was a statistical difference in PFS between treatment arms. Recently, two phase III clinical trials showed efficacy of experimental treatments in OS, but not PFS. These results seem counterintuitive, because it may be reasonable to consider that the effect of treatment in prolonging PFS can influence OS prolongation. We conducted simulations to examine the role of SPP in OS under the assumption that only SPP, and not PFS, differed between treatment arms. We also explored the impact of patient heterogeneity on the OS analysis. Our study offers a reasonable explanation for the two phase III trials and recommends further discussion of PFS as an adequate endpoint and what role SPP might play in OS to evaluate current treatment regimens.