Effects of plant size and weather on the flowering phenology of the organ pipe cactus (Stenocereus thurberi)

Natural and anthropogenic factors influence flowering synchrony and reproduction of a dominant plant in an inter-Andean scrub

PREMISE

Agriculture expansion, livestock, and global change have transformed biological communities and altered, through aerosols and direct deposition, N:P balance in soils of inter-Andean valleys, potentially affecting flowering phenology of many species and thereby flowering synchrony and plant reproduction.

METHODS

We evaluated the influence of variation in temperature and moisture along the local elevational gradient and treatments with the addition of N and P and grazing on flowering synchrony and reproduction of Croton, a dominant shrub of the inter-Andean dry scrub. Along the elevational gradient (300 m difference between the lowest and highest site), we set up plots with and without grazing nested with four nutrient treatments: control and addition of N or P alone or combined N + P. We recorded the number of female and male flowers in bloom monthly from September 2017 to August 2019 to calculate flowering synchrony. We assessed fruiting, seed mass, and pre-dispersal seed predation.

RESULTS

Higher growing-season soil temperatures, which were negatively associated with local elevation and higher nitrogen availability promoted flowering synchrony of Croton, particularly among larger plants. Greater flowering synchrony, high soil temperatures, and addition of N + P resulted in production of more fruits of Croton, but also intensified pre-dispersal seed predation.

CONCLUSIONS

Temperature, availability of moisture throughout the elevational gradient, and nutrient manipulation affected flowering synchrony, which subsequently affected production of fruits in Croton. These results emphasize the critical role of current anthropogenic changes in climate and nutrient availability on flowering synchrony and reproduction of Croton, a dominant plant of the inter-Andean scrub.

Are 150 km of open sea enough? Gene flow and population differentiation in a bat-pollinated columnar cactus

Genetic differentiations and phylogeographical patterns are controlled by the interplay between spatial isolation and gene flow. To assess the extent of gene flow across an oceanic barrier, we explored the effect of the separation of the peninsula of Baja California on the evolution of mainland and peninsular populations of the long-lived columnar cactus Stenocereus thurberi. We analyzed twelve populations throughout the OPC distribution range to assess genetic diversity and structure using chloroplast DNA sequences. Genetic diversity was higher (Hd = 0.81), and genetic structure was lower (GST = 0.143) in mainland populations vs peninsular populations (Hd = 0.71, GST = 0.358 respectively). Genetic diversity was negatively associated with elevation but positively with rainfall. Two mainland and one peninsular ancestral haplotypes were reconstructed. Peninsular populations were as isolated among them as with mainland populations. Peninsular haplotypes formed a group with one mainland coastal population, and populations across the gulf shared common haplotypes giving support to regular gene flow across the Gulf. Gene flow is likely mediated by bats, the main pollinators and seed dispersers. Niche modeling suggests that during the Last Glacial Maximum (c. 130 ka), OPC populations shrank to southern locations. Currently, Stenocereus thurberi populations are expanding, and the species is under population divergence despite ongoing gene flow. Ancestral populations are located on the mainland and although vicariant peninsular populations cannot be ruled out, they are likely the result of gene flow across the seemingly formidable barrier of the Gulf of California. Still, unique haplotypes occur in the peninsula and the mainland, and peninsular populations are more structured than those on the mainland.

Phenological variations in relation to climatic variables of moist temperate forest tree species of western Himalaya, India

Phenology, an important ecological attribute, deals with the development of vegetative and reproductive parts of trees called "phenophases", which are important determinants of primary productivity and sensitive to climate change. The present study recorded various phenophases of major tree species (i.e., Quercus leucotrichophora, Rhododendron arboreum, and Myrica esculenta) as per the two-digit numerical system of Biologische Bundesanstalt, Bundessortenamt, Chemische Industrie (BBCH) scale. A total of 72 individual trees, twenty-four from each species, distributed between 1400 and 1980 m. a.s.l elevations were tagged and measured fortnightly for two consecutive years (2019-2021) in the moist temperate forest of Western Himalaya and compared with earlier existing records. Various phenophases were correlated with climatic factors along with duration and thermal time for each phenological growth stage. We found 24 growth stages for Q. leucotrichophora and M. esculenta and 28 for R. arboreum distributed across seven principal growth stages (e.g. bud development, 0; leaf development, 1; shoot development, 3; inflorescence development, 5; flower development, 6; fruit development, 7; and fruit maturation, 8) of trees as per BBCH scale. Maximum growing degree was 748.87 and 627.95 days recorded for R. arboreum and M. esculenta during leaf development, and 796.17 days for Q. leucotrichophora during fruit development. Flower emergence was observed pre, during, and post-emergence of new leaves for R. arboreum, M. esculenta, and Q. leucotrichophora, respectively, which varied at spatial scale with previous findings. Longevity of fruit development to ripening took 17, 4, and 2 months, respectively in Q. leucotrichophora, R. arboreum and M. esculenta. Duration of leaf initiation and flowering was positively correlated with climatic variables, whereas, the reverse was observed for fruiting in the studied tree species. The study concludes that the variations in phenophases of the three species were strongly influenced by climatic variations, especially minimum temperature. The result of the present study would be important in enabling us to formulate efficient forest management strategies by understanding the short-term adaptation of the climate-sensitive important tree species in the western Himalaya.

Analyzing a phenological anomaly in Yucca of the southwestern United States

Yucca in the American desert Southwest typically flowers in early spring, but a well-documented anomalous bloom event occurred during an unusually cold and wet late fall and early winter 2018–2019. We used community science photographs to generate flowering presence and absence data. We fit phenoclimatic models to determine which climate variables are explanatory for normal flowering, and then we tested if the same conditions that drive normal blooming also drove the anomalous blooming event. Flowering for Yucca brevifolia (Joshua tree) and Yucca schidigera (Mojave yucca) is driven by complex, nonlinear interactions between daylength, temperature, and precipitation. To our surprise, early-season flowering odds are highest in colder and drier conditions, especially for Joshua trees, but increase with precipitation late-season. However, the models used to fit normal blooming overpredicted the number of anomalous blooms compared to what was actually observed. Thus, predicting anomalous flowering events remains a challenge for quantitative phenological models. Because our model overpredicted the number of anomalous blooms, there are likely other factors, such as biotic interactions or other seasonal factors, which may be especially important in controlling what is presumed to be rare, out-of-season flowering in desert-adapted Yucca.

Phylogenetic Relationships and Evolutionary Trends in the Cactus Family

Members of the cactus family are keystone species of arid and semiarid biomes in the Americas, as they provide shelter and resources to support other members of ecosystems. Extraordinary examples are the several species of flies of the genus Drosophila that lay eggs and feed in their rotting stems, which provide a model system for studying evolutionary processes. Although there is significant progress in understanding the evolution of Drosophila species, there are gaps in our knowledge about the cactus lineages hosting them. Here, we review the current knowledge about the evolution of Cactaceae, focusing on phylogenetic relationships and trends revealed by the study of DNA sequence data. During the last several decades, the availability of molecular phylogenies has considerably increased our understanding of the relationships, biogeography, and evolution of traits in the family. Remarkably, although succulent cacti have very low growth rates and long generation times, they underwent some of the fastest diversifications observed in the plant kingdom, possibly fostered by strong ecological interactions. We have a better understanding of the reproductive biology, population structure and speciation mechanisms in different clades. The recent publication of complete genomes for some species has revealed the importance of phenomena such as incomplete lineage sorting. Hybridization and polyploidization are common in the family, and have been studied using a variety of phylogenetic methods. We discuss potential future avenues for research in Cactaceae, emphasizing the need of a concerted effort among scientists in the Americas, together with the analyses of data from novel sequencing techniques.

Tunicate bulb size variation in monocots explained by temperature and phenology

Plant bulbs are modified shoot systems comprised of short internodes with apical bud(s) surrounded by layers of leaf bases. Bulb diameters can vary greatly, with overall bulb size playing a role in flower formation and resource allocation. Despite the importance of bulb size to the overall fitness of an individual, evolutionary and ecological aspects of this trait have been almost completely neglected. Examining over 2,500 herbarium vouchers for 115 selected species, we analyzed monocot tunicate bulb size within a phylogenetic context in order to investigate its evolutionary significance. We recorded two bulb diameter optima and observed that as bulb size increases taxa inhabit warmer areas with less temperature seasonality. Furthermore, we found that hysteranthous taxa, a habit where leaves emerge separately from flowers, exhibit overall larger bulbs potentially due to reliance upon belowground stored resources to flower rather than on current environmental inputs. This work highlights the importance of including the belowground portion of plants into ecological and evolutionary studies in order to gain a more complete understanding of the evolution of plant forms and functions.

Nonlinear modeling of saguaro growth rates reveals the importance of temperature for size-dependent growth

PREMISE

The saguaro cactus is an iconic species of the Sonoran Desert. Its individual growth rates have been investigated for over 100 years. Its growth dynamics have been studied using phenomenological models intended to estimate growth, but not to understand the underlying biological processes. Most studies have suggested summer rainfall as the sole factor determining saguaro growth, overlooking the influence of other factors related to the process of growth.

METHODS

We analyzed the annual growth rates for 13 saguaro populations in the Sonoran Desert using nonlinear models. These are better suited to analyze growth since they consider the fact that maximum growth rates diminish just before the onset of reproduction. We related model parameters to the local climate.

RESULTS

The most parsimonious model was the Ricker function that described growth considering cactus decline with age. Variance in temperature, rather than precipitation, was more closely related to growth. Higher variance in temperature at the beginning of the warm season was detrimental to saguaro growth.

CONCLUSIONS

Simple nonlinear equations modeled growth rate using biologically interpretable parameters related to climate factors. Because the temperature is projected to increase in both mean and variance by climate change, the population dynamics of this iconic cactus are likely to be affected.

A decade of flowering phenology of the keystone saguaro cactus (Carnegiea gigantea)

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Phenology is the study of biological life cycle events, such as flowering and migration. Climate patterns can alter these life history events, having ecosystem-wide ramifications. For example, warmer springs are associated with earlier leaf-out for many species, impacting species interactions and growing-season carbon dynamics. While phenological research has been conducted extensively in temperate regions, relatively little is known about the phenological responses in arid and semi-arid regions.

METHODS

In this study we looked at the flowering phenology of a keystone species in the Sonoran Desert, the saguaro cactus (Carnegiea gigantea). The timing and abundance of flowering was observed on 151 individuals for 10 years at a site near Tucson, Arizona, USA. Using six phenological traits, we explored the relationship between saguaro size and flowering and the climatic drivers of flowering.

KEY RESULTS

Our analyses demonstrated how the calculation of phenological traits at the individual versus the population level can yield differing responses to climate variability, suggesting that not all studies examining the same trait (e.g., first day of bloom) are directly comparable. We found that larger cacti began flowering earlier, flowered for longer, and produced more flowers. Warmer temperatures were correlated with advanced onset and higher bloom yields, while increased precipitation appeared to delay onset and reduce bloom yields.

CONCLUSIONS

Given that climate models predict that the Southwestern USA will become increasingly warmer with more variable precipitation, saguaros may begin flowering earlier in the season and flower more intensely, which could impact pollen availability and population dynamics.

Reproductive consequences of variation in flowering phenology in the dry forest tree Enterolobium cyclocarpum in Guanacaste, Costa Rica

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Flowering initiation, duration and magnitude, and degree of flowering synchrony within a population can affect the reproductive fitness of individuals. We examined the flowering phenology within a population of the tropical dry forest Guanacaste tree (Enterolobium cyclocarpum) to gauge the impact of phenological variation among trees on fruit production and progeny vigor.

METHODS

We monitored the flowering phenology of 93 trees weekly during 2005, 2006, and 2007, using a scale based on the percentage of the crown with open flowers. We also monitored fruit production for each tree in 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008. Finally, we evaluated the relationship between phenological variation and progeny performance.

KEY RESULTS

Ten measures of flowering phenology and synchrony among flowering trees, based on the number of weeks when anthesis of the crown exceeded 50%, were used to develop four phenological profiles. These profiles were correlated with significant differences in fruit production and progeny vigor. Trees with flowers in >50% of their crown for at least 2 weeks produced more fruits and more vigorous progeny than trees with other profiles. Trees also tended to produce the same phenological profile among years than predicted by chance.

CONCLUSIONS

Guanacaste trees vary significantly in the initiation of anthesis, duration and magnitude of flowering, and degree of synchrony among trees. Trees also tend to maintain the same flowering profile among years. Finally, the flowering behavior of E. cyclocarpum leads to significant differences in fruit and seed production, germination, and early progeny growth.

Pollination and reproductive system of synchronopatric species of Cactaceae (Cactoideae) subject to interspecific flow of pollen: an example of ecological adaptation in the Brazilian Chaco

Three synchronopatric Cactaceae species, Echinopsis rhodotricha, Harrisia balansae and Praecereus saxicola, have mostly nocturnal anthesis and similar flowers, characteristics that motivated us to perform a comparative study of reproductive ecology. Reproductive phenology was sampled monthly from December 2014 to November 2015. We describe floral biology, breeding system via pollination treatments and evaluate floral visitors from focal and filming observations. Pollen grains found on moth proboscis were compared among cactus species under light microscopy. We used fluorescent dye particles to test intra- and interspecific pollen flow. These three species have extended flowering with greater intensity in the wet season, causing high overlap. They have white and hypocrateriformis flowers that open at twilight or nightfall and last about 15 h. H. balansae seems to be self-incompatible, while E. rhodotricha presented self-compatibility. P. saxicola presented self-fertility, but most of the population seems to be self-incompatible. We suggest sphingophily for the three species, but only P. saxicola was visited by Manduca rustica (Sphingidae). However, we observed pollen grains of all three species on the proboscis of moths, especially M. rustica and M. sexta. Prolonged anthesis allowed bees (herein considered as secondary pollinators) to visit flowers of E. rhodotricha and P. saxicola. It can be concluded that the studied species share nocturnal and diurnal pollinators, suggesting interspecific pollen flow, which, however, could not be detected with fluorescent dye particles. In view of the low frequency of primary pollinators, it appears that these three species have different reproductive strategies, ensuring the fruiting and production of viable seeds.

Thermal buffering capacity of the germination phenotype across the environmental envelope of the Cactaceae

Recruitment from seeds is among the most vulnerable stage for plants as global temperatures change. While germination is the means by which the vast majority of the world's flora regenerate naturally, a framework for accurately predicting which species are at greatest risk of germination failure during environmental perturbation is lacking. Taking a physiological approach, we assess how one family, the Cactaceae, may respond to global temperature change based on the thermal buffering capacity of the germination phenotype. We selected 55 cactus species from the Americas, all geo-referenced seed collections, reflecting the broad environmental envelope of the family across 70° of latitude and 3700 m of altitude. We then generated empirical data of the thermal germination response from which we estimated the minimum (T_b ), optimum (T_o ) and ceiling (T_c ) temperature for germination and the thermal time (θ₅₀ ) for each species based on the linearity of germination rate with temperature. Species with the highest T_b and lowest T_c germinated fastest, and the interspecific sensitivity of the germination rate to temperature, as assessed through θ₅₀ , varied tenfold. A left-skewed asymmetry in the germination rate with temperature was relatively common but the unimodal pattern typical of crop species failed for nearly half of the species due to insensitivity to temperature change at T_o . For 32 fully characterized species, seed thermal parameters correlated strongly with the mean temperature of the wettest quarter of the seed collection sites. By projecting the mean temperature of the wettest quarter under two climate change scenarios, we predict under the least conservative scenario (+3.7°C) that 25% of cactus species will have reduced germination performance, whilst the remainder will have an efficiency gain, by the end of the 21st century.

Plant phenological synchrony increases under rapid within-spring warming

Phenological synchrony influences many ecological processes. Recent climate change has altered the synchrony of phenology, but little is known about the underlying mechanisms. Here using in situ phenological records from Europe, we found that the standard deviation (SD, as a measure of synchrony) of first leafing day (FLD) and the SD of first flowering day (FFD) among local plants were significantly smaller in the years and/or in the regions with a more rapid within-spring warming speed (WWS, the linear slope of the daily mean temperature against the days during spring, in ^oC/day) with correlation coefficients of −0.75 and −0.48 for FLD and −0.55 and −0.23 for FFD. We further found that the SDs of temperature sensitivity of local plants were smaller under the rapid WWS conditions with correlation coefficients of −0.46 and −0.33 for FLD and FFD respectively. This study provides the first evidence that the within-season rate of change of the temperature but not the magnitude determines plant phenological synchrony. It implies that temporally, the asymmetric seasonal climatic warming may decrease the synchrony via increasing WWS, especially in arctic regions; spatially, plants in coastal and low latitude areas with low WWS would have more diverse spring phenological traits.

Shift in precipitation regime promotes interspecific hybridization of introduced Coffea species

The frequency of plant species introductions has increased in a highly connected world, modifying species distribution patterns to include areas outside their natural ranges. These introductions provide the opportunity to gain new insight into the importance of flowering phenology as a component of adaptation to a new environment. Three Coffea species, C. arabica, C. canephora (Robusta), and C. liberica, native to intertropical Africa have been introduced to New Caledonia. On this archipelago, a secondary contact zone has been characterized where these species coexist, persist, and hybridize spontaneously. We investigated the impact of environmental changes undergone by each species following its introduction in New Caledonia on flowering phenology and overcoming reproductive barriers between sister species. We developed species distribution models and compared both environmental envelopes and climatic niches between native and introduced hybrid zones. Flowering phenology was monitored in a population in the hybrid zone along with temperature and precipitation sequences recorded at a nearby weather station. The extent and nature of hybridization events were characterized using chloroplast and nuclear microsatellite markers. The three Coffea species encountered weak environmental suitability compared to their native ranges when introduced to New Caledonia, especially C. arabica and C. canephora. The niche of the New Caledonia hybrid zone was significantly different from all three species' native niches based on identity tests (I Similarity and D Schoener's Similarity Indexes). This area appeared to exhibit intermediate conditions between the native conditions of the three species for temperature-related variables and divergent conditions for precipitation-related ones. Flowering pattern in these Coffea species was shown to have a strong genetic component that determined the time between the triggering rain and anthesis (flower opening), specific to each species. However, a precipitation regime different from those in Africa was directly involved in generating partial flowering overlap between species and thus in allowing hybridization and interspecific gene flow. Interspecific hybrids accounted for 4% of the mature individuals in the sympatric population and occurred between each pair of species with various level of introgression. Adaptation to new environmental conditions following introduction of Coffea species to New Caledonia has resulted in a secondary contact between three related species, which would not have happened in their native ranges, leading to hybridization and gene flow.

Population Genetic Structure of a Widespread Bat-Pollinated Columnar Cactus

Bats are the main pollinators and seed dispersers of Stenocereus thurberi, a xenogamous columnar cactus of northwestern Mexico and a good model to illustrate spatial dynamics of gene flow in long-lived species. Previous studies in this cactus showed differences among populations in the type and abundance of pollinators, and in the timing of flowering and fruiting. In this study we analyzed genetic variability and population differentiation among populations. We used three primers of ISSR to analyze within and among populations genetic variation from eight widely separated populations of S. thurberi in Sonora, Mexico. Sixty-six out of 99 of the ISSR bands (P = 66.7%) were polymorphic. Total heterozygosity for all populations sampled revealed high genetic diversity (Hsp = 0.207, HBT = 0.224). The AMOVA showed that most of the genetic variation was within populations (80.5%). At the species level, estimates of population differentiation, θ = 0.175 and θB = 0.194, indicated moderate gene flow among populations. The absence of a significant correlation between genetic and geographic distances indicated little isolation by geographic distance. The large genetic variation and diversity found in S. thurberi is consistent with its open reproductive system and the high mobility of bats, a major pollinator. However, small changes in number or kind of pollinators and seed dispersal agents, in the directionality of migratory routes, and/or in the timing of flowering and fruiting among populations, can critically affect gene flow dynamics.

Flowering phenology and its implications for management of big-leaf mahogany Swietenia macrophylla in Brazilian Amazonia

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Flowering phenology is a crucial determinant of reproductive success and offspring genetic diversity in plants. We measure the flowering phenology of big-leaf mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla, Meliaceae), a widely distributed neotropical tree, and explore how disturbance from logging impacts its reproductive biology.

METHODS

We use a crown scoring system to estimate the timing and duration of population-level flowering at three forest sites in the Brazilian Amazon over a five-year period. We combine this information with data on population structure and spatial distribution to consider the implications of logging for population flowering patterns and reproductive success.

KEY RESULTS

Mahogany trees as small as 14 cm diam flowered, but only trees > 30 cm diam flowered annually or supra-annually. Mean observed flowering periods by focal trees ranged from 18-34 d, and trees flowered sequentially during 3-4 mo beginning in the dry season. Focal trees demonstrated significant interannual correlation in flowering order. Estimated population-level flowering schedules resembled that of the focal trees, with temporal isolation between early and late flowering trees. At the principal study site, conventional logging practices eliminated 87% of mahogany trees > 30 cm diam and an estimated 94% of annual pre-logging floral effort.

CONCLUSIONS

Consistent interannual patterns of sequential flowering among trees create incompletely isolated subpopulations, constraining pollen flow. After harvests, surviving subcommercial trees will have fewer, more distant, and smaller potential partners, with probable consequences for post-logging regeneration. These results have important implications for the sustainability of harvesting systems for tropical timber species.

Effect of habitat disturbance on pollination biology of the columnar cactus Stenocereus quevedonis at landscape-level in central Mexico

Stenocereus quevedonis ('pitire') is a columnar cactus endemic to central Mexico, grown for its edible fruit. Phenology, pollination biology and behaviour of flower visitors of this species were compared in six conserved and disturbed sites, hypothesising that: (i) pitire pollination is self-incompatible, requiring animal vectors; (ii) higher incidence of radiation on plants in cleared forest may lead to a higher number of flowers per pitire plant and longer blooming season, and disturbing and differential spatial availability of flower resources may determine differential attraction of pollinators to conserved and disturbed areas; (iii) if pitire pollination system is specialised, reproductive success would decrease with pollinator scarcity, or other species may substitute for main pollinators. In all sites, pitire reproduction started in January, flowering peak occurring in April, anthesis duration was 15 h and predominantly nocturnal (9 h), pollen was released at 23:00 h, nectar was produced throughout anthesis, and breeding system was self-incompatible. Flower production per plant was similar in disturbed and conserved sites, but flower availability was higher (because of higher tree density) and longer in disturbed sites. Pollination is nocturnal, the most frequent legitimate pollinator being the bat Leptonycteris yerbabuenae; diurnal pollination is rare but possible, carried out by bee species. Fruit and seed set in control and nocturnal pollination treatments at disturbed sites were higher than in conserved sites. Frequency of L. yerbabuenae visits was similar among site types, but more visits of complementary nocturnal and diurnal pollinators were recorded in disturbed sites, which could explain differences in reproductive success.

Geographic variation in reproductive success of Stenocereus thurberi (Cactaceae): Effects of pollination timing and pollinator guild

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

It has been proposed that species of columnar cacti from dry tropical areas depend on bats for their reproduction, whereas species from dry subtropical areas are also pollinated by other species. To test this hypothesis, we examined the effects of pollinator guild and of variation in time and space on the reproductive success of a widespread species. •

METHODS

Changes in fruit set, seed set, and pollinator activity through time were recorded in three widely separated populations of Stenocereus thurberi. Breeding system and sources of pollination limitation were determined by controlled pollinator exclusions in each population. •

KEY RESULTS

Significant differences were found in the timing of activity and in the effectiveness of pollinators among sites. In the northern and central populations, reproductive success depends on bats, whereas in the southern population a combination of pollinators was more effective. No difference between open and hand cross-pollination treatments was found in the northern and central populations, which suggests no pollen limitation. However, significant differences were detected in the southern population, which indicates temporal differences in pollinator abundance or arrival time. •

CONCLUSIONS

Local variation in pollinator assemblages and reproductive success could greatly affect the evolution of pollination systems. The pattern of generalist pollination in the southernmost populations and specialized pollination in the central and northern populations contradicts the hypothesis of latitudinal variation. In the absence of nocturnal pollinators, the accumulated nectar can sustain visits by diurnal pollinators, a bet-hedging strategy that increases the chances of fruit set in some populations.

Selection on variance in flowering time within and among individuals

We model the impact of pollinator visitation rate and behavior on the short-term evolution of population flowering phenologies determined by the distributions of flowering times within and among individual plants. Evolution of population flowering phenologies depends on the phenotypic variances and heritabilities of the within-individual mean and variance of flowering time. In the ecological scenarios we investigate selection does not produce a correlation of the mean and variance of individual flowering time. Self-incompatibility causes weak stabilizing selection on flowering time that acts to reduce the within-individual variance in flowering time. Disruptive selection due to pollinator limitation acts mostly to increase the among-individual variance in flowering time. Stabilizing selection due to pollinator attraction, or short reproductive season, acts mostly to decrease the within-individual variance in flowering time. Temporal autocorrelation of environmental stochasticity in pollinator visitation rate strongly selects to increase the within-individual variance in flowering time. These predictions can be tested by measuring the causal factors described above, partitioning the variance in population phenology within and among individuals, and estimating the inheritance of, and selection on, within-individual mean and variance of flowering time.