Disease spreading modeling and analysis: a survey

Leveraging graph neural networks for supporting automatic triage of patients

Patient triage is crucial in emergency departments, ensuring timely and appropriate care based on correctly evaluating the emergency grade of patient conditions. Triage methods are generally performed by human operator based on her own experience and information that are gathered from the patient management process. Thus, it is a process that can generate errors in emergency-level associations. Recently, Traditional triage methods heavily rely on human decisions, which can be subjective and prone to errors. A growing interest has recently been focused on leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) to develop algorithms to maximize information gathering and minimize errors in patient triage processing. We define and implement an AI-based module to manage patients' emergency code assignments in emergency departments. It uses historical data from the emergency department to train the medical decision-making process. Data containing relevant patient information, such as vital signs, symptoms, and medical history, accurately classify patients into triage categories. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm achieved high accuracy outperforming traditional triage methods. By using the proposed method, we claim that healthcare professionals can predict severity index to guide patient management processing and resource allocation.

The Omicron XBB.1 Variant and Its Descendants: Genomic Mutations, Rapid Dissemination and Notable Characteristics

The SARS-CoV-2 virus, which is a major threat to human health, has undergone many mutations during the replication process due to errors in the replication steps and modifications in the structure of viral proteins. The XBB variant was identified for the first time in Singapore in the fall of 2022. It was then detected in other countries, including the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. We study the impact of sequence changes on spike protein structure on the subvariants of XBB, with particular attention to the velocity of variant diffusion and virus activity with respect to its diffusion. We examine the structural and functional distinctions of the variants in three different conformations: (i) spike glycoprotein in complex with ACE2 (1-up state), (ii) spike glycoprotein (closed-1 state), and (iii) S protein (open-1 state). We also estimate the affinity binding between the spike protein and ACE2. The market binding affinity observed in specific variants raises questions about the efficacy of current vaccines in preparing the immune system for virus variant recognition. This work may be useful in devising strategies to manage the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. To stay ahead of the virus evolution, further research and surveillance should be carried out to adjust public health measures accordingly.

Modeling the effect of observational social learning on parental decision-making for childhood vaccination and diseases spread over household networks

In this paper, we introduce a novel model for parental decision-making about vaccinations against a childhood disease that spreads through a contact network. This model considers a bilayer network comprising two overlapping networks, which are either Erdős-Rényi (random) networks or Barabási-Albert networks. The model also employs a Bayesian aggregation rule for observational social learning on a social network. This new model encompasses other decision models, such as voting and DeGroot models, as special cases. Using our model, we demonstrate how certain levels of social learning about vaccination preferences can converge opinions, influencing vaccine uptake and ultimately disease spread. In addition, we explore how two different cultures of social learning affect the establishment of social norms of vaccination and the uptake of vaccines. In every scenario, the interplay between the dynamics of observational social learning and disease spread is influenced by the network's topology, along with vaccine safety and availability.

Strategies and Trends in COVID-19 Vaccination Delivery: What We Learn and What We May Use for the Future

Vaccination has been the most effective way to control the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The numbers and types of vaccines have reached considerable proportions, even if the question of vaccine procedures and frequency still needs to be resolved. We have come to learn the necessity of defining vaccination distribution strategies with regard to COVID-19 that could be used for any future pandemics of similar gravity. In fact, vaccine monitoring implies the existence of a strategy that should be measurable in terms of input and output, based on a mathematical model, including death rates, the spread of infections, symptoms, hospitalization, and so on. This paper addresses the issue of vaccine diffusion and strategies for monitoring the pandemic. It provides a description of the importance and take up of vaccines and the links between procedures and the containment of COVID-19 variants, as well as the long-term effects. Finally, the paper focuses on the global scenario in a world undergoing profound social and political change, with particular attention on current and future health provision. This contribution would represent an example of vaccination experiences, which can be useful in other pandemic or epidemiological contexts.

COVID Variants, Villain and Victory: A Bioinformatics Perspective

The SARS-CoV-2 virus, a novel member of the Coronaviridae family, is responsible for the viral infection known as Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). In response to the urgent and critical need for rapid detection, diagnosis, analysis, interpretation, and treatment of COVID-19, a wide variety of bioinformatics tools have been developed. Given the virulence of SARS-CoV-2, it is crucial to explore the pathophysiology of the virus. We intend to examine how bioinformatics, in conjunction with next-generation sequencing techniques, can be leveraged to improve current diagnostic tools and streamline vaccine development for emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants. We also emphasize how bioinformatics, in general, can contribute to critical areas of biomedicine, including clinical diagnostics, SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance and its evolution, identification of potential drug targets, and development of therapeutic strategies. Currently, state-of-the-art bioinformatics tools have helped overcome technical obstacles with respect to genomic surveillance and have assisted in rapid detection, diagnosis, and delivering precise treatment to individuals on time.

Multi-weight susceptible-infected model for predicting COVID-19 in China

The mutant strains of COVID-19 caused a global explosion of infections, including many cities of China. In 2020, a hybrid AI model was proposed by Zheng et al., which accurately predicted the epidemic in Wuhan. As the main part of the hybrid AI model, ISI method makes two important assumptions to avoid over-fitting. However, the assumptions cannot be effectively applied to new mutant strains. In this paper, a more general method, named the multi-weight susceptible-infected model (MSI) is proposed to predict COVID-19 in Chinese Mainland. First, a Gaussian pre-processing method is proposed to solve the problem of data fluctuation based on the quantity consistency of cumulative infection number and the trend consistency of daily infection number. Then, we improve the model from two aspects: changing the grouped multi-parameter strategy to the multi-weight strategy, and removing the restriction of weight distribution of viral infectivity. Experiments on the outbreaks in many places in China from the end of 2021 to May 2022 show that, in China, an individual infected by Delta or Omicron strains of SARS-CoV-2 can infect others within 3-4 days after he/she got infected. Especially, the proposed method effectively predicts the trend of the epidemics in Xi'an, Tianjin, Henan, and Shanghai from December 2021 to May 2022.

Computational analysis of the sequence-structure relation in SARS-CoV-2 spike protein using protein contact networks

The structure of proteins impacts directly on the function they perform. Mutations in the primary sequence can provoke structural changes with consequent modification of functional properties. SARS-CoV-2 proteins have been extensively studied during the pandemic. This wide dataset, related to sequence and structure, has enabled joint sequence-structure analysis. In this work, we focus on the SARS-CoV-2 S (Spike) protein and the relations between sequence mutations and structure variations, in order to shed light on the structural changes stemming from the position of mutated amino acid residues in three different SARS-CoV-2 strains. We propose the use of protein contact network (PCN) formalism to: (i) obtain a global metric space and compare various molecular entities, (ii) give a structural explanation of the observed phenotype, and (iii) provide context dependent descriptors of single mutations. PCNs have been used to compare sequence and structure of the Alpha, Delta, and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variants, and we found that omicron has a unique mutational pattern leading to different structural consequences from mutations of other strains. The non-random distribution of changes in network centrality along the chain has allowed to shed light on the structural (and functional) consequences of mutations.

Temporal networks in biology and medicine: a survey on models, algorithms, and tools

The use of static graphs for modelling and analysis of biological and biomedical data plays a key role in biomedical research. However, many real-world scenarios present dynamic behaviours resulting in both node and edges modification as well as feature evolution. Consequently, ad-hoc models for capturing these evolutions along the time have been introduced, also referred to as dynamic, temporal, time-varying graphs. Here, we focus on temporal graphs, i.e., graphs whose evolution is represented by a sequence of time-ordered snapshots. Each snapshot represents a graph active in a particular timestamp. We survey temporal graph models and related algorithms, presenting fundamentals aspects and the recent advances. We formally define temporal graphs, focusing on the problem setting and we present their main applications in biology and medicine. We also present temporal graph embedding and the application to recent problems such as epidemic modelling. Finally, we further state some promising research directions in the area. Main results of this study include a systematic review of fundamental temporal network problems and their algorithmic solutions considered in the literature, in particular those having application in computational biology and medicine. We also include the main software developed in this context.

Mosaic Recombination Inflicted Various SARS-CoV-2 Lineages to Emerge into Novel Virus Variants: a Review Update

Human Coronaviruses (hCoVs) belongs to the enormous and dissimilar family of positive-sense, non-segmented, single-stranded RNA viruses. The RNA viruses are prone to high rates of mutational recombination resulting in emergence of evolutionary variant to alter various features including transmissibility and severity. The evolutionary changes affect the immune escape and reduce effectiveness of diagnostic and therapeutic measures by becoming undetectable by the currently available diagnostics and refractory to therapeutics and vaccines. Whole genome sequencing studies from various countries have adequately reported mosaic recombination between different lineage strain of SARS-CoV-2 whereby RNA dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) gene reconnects with a homologous RNA strand at diverse position. This all lead to evolutionary emergence of new variant/ lineage as evident with the emergence of XBB in India at the time of writing this review. The continuous periodical genomic surveillance is utmost required for understanding the various lineages involved in recombination to emerge into hybrid variant. This may further help in assessing virus transmission dynamics, virulence and severity factor to help health authorities take appropriate timely action for prevention and control of any future COVID-19 outbreak.

Identification of the effects of COVID-19 on patients with pulmonary fibrosis and lung cancer: a bioinformatics analysis and literature review

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) poses a serious threat to human health and life. The effective prevention and treatment of COVID-19 complications have become crucial to saving patients’ lives. During the phase of mass spread of the epidemic, a large number of patients with pulmonary fibrosis and lung cancers were inevitably infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Lung cancers have the highest tumor morbidity and mortality rates worldwide, and pulmonary fibrosis itself is one of the complications of COVID-19. Idiopathic lung fibrosis (IPF) and various lung cancers (primary and metastatic) become risk factors for complications of COVID-19 and significantly increase mortality in patients. Therefore, we applied bioinformatics and systems biology approaches to identify molecular biomarkers and common pathways in COVID-19, IPF, colorectal cancer (CRC) lung metastasis, SCLC and NSCLC. We identified 79 DEGs between COVID-19, IPF, CRC lung metastasis, SCLC and NSCLC. Meanwhile, based on the transcriptome features of DSigDB and common DEGs, we identified 10 drug candidates. In this study, 79 DEGs are the common core genes of the 5 diseases. The 10 drugs were found to have positive effects in treating COVID-19 and lung cancer, potentially reducing the risk of pulmonary fibrosis.

Design and Implementation of a New Local Alignment Algorithm for Multilayer Networks

Network alignment (NA) is a popular research field that aims to develop algorithms for comparing networks. Applications of network alignment span many fields, from biology to social network analysis. NA comes in two forms: global network alignment (GNA), which aims to find a global similarity, and LNA, which aims to find local regions of similarity. Recently, there has been an increasing interest in introducing complex network models such as multilayer networks. Multilayer networks are common in many application scenarios, such as modelling of relations among people in a social network or representing the interplay of different molecules in a cell or different cells in the brain. Consequently, the need to introduce algorithms for the comparison of such multilayer networks, i.e., local network alignment, arises. Existing algorithms for LNA do not perform well on multilayer networks since they cannot consider inter-layer edges. Thus, we propose local alignment of multilayer networks (MultiLoAl), a novel algorithm for the local alignment of multilayer networks. We define the local alignment of multilayer networks and propose a heuristic for solving it. We present an extensive assessment indicating the strength of the algorithm. Furthermore, we implemented a synthetic multilayer network generator to build the data for the algorithm's evaluation.

Uncertainty Modeling of a Modified SEIR Epidemic Model for COVID-19

Based on SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed) epidemic model, we propose a modified epidemic mathematical model to describe the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic in Wuhan, China. Using public data, the uncertainty parameters of the proposed model for COVID-19 in Wuhan were calibrated. The uncertainty of the control basic reproduction number was studied with the posterior probability density function of the uncertainty model parameters. The mathematical model was used to inverse deduce the earliest start date of COVID-19 infection in Wuhan with consideration of the lack of information for the initial conditions of the model. The result of the uncertainty analysis of the model is in line with the observed data for COVID-19 in Wuhan, China. The numerical results show that the modified mathematical model could model the spread of COVID-19 epidemics.