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Hejazi NS, Shen X, Carpp LN, Benkeser D, Follmann D, Janes HE, Baden LR, El Sahly HM, Deng W, Zhou H, Leav B, Montefiori DC, Gilbert PB. Stochastic interventional approach to assessing immune correlates of protection: Application to the COVE messenger RNA-1273 vaccine trial. Int J Infect Dis 2023; 137:28-39. [PMID: 37820782 PMCID: PMC10841741 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2023.09.012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2023] [Revised: 08/30/2023] [Accepted: 09/17/2023] [Indexed: 10/13/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Stochastic interventional vaccine efficacy (SVE) analysis is a new approach to correlate of protection (CoP) analysis of a phase III trial that estimates how vaccine efficacy (VE) would change under hypothetical shifts of an immune marker. METHODS We applied nonparametric SVE methodology to the COVE trial of messenger RNA-1273 vs placebo to evaluate post-dose 2 pseudovirus neutralizing antibody (nAb) titer against the D614G strain as a CoP against COVID-19. Secondly, we evaluated the ability of these results to predict VE against variants based on shifts of geometric mean titers to variants vs D614G. Prediction accuracy was evaluated by 13 validation studies, including 12 test-negative designs. RESULTS SVE analysis of COVE supported post-dose 2 D614G titer as a CoP: estimated VE ranged from 66.9% (95% confidence interval: 36.2, 82.8%) to 99.3% (99.1, 99.4%) at 10-fold decreased or increased titer shifts, respectively. The SVE estimates only weakly predicted variant-specific VE estimates (concordance correlation coefficient 0.062 for post 2-dose VE). CONCLUSION SVE analysis of COVE supports nAb titer as a CoP for messenger RNA vaccines. Predicting variant-specific VE proved difficult due to many limitations. Greater anti-Omicron titers may be needed for high-level protection against Omicron vs anti-D614G titers needed for high-level protection against pre-Omicron COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nima S Hejazi
- Department of Biostatistics, T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, USA
| | - Xiaoying Shen
- Department of Surgery and Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, USA
| | - Lindsay N Carpp
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, USA
| | - David Benkeser
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, USA
| | - Dean Follmann
- Biostatistics Research Branch, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, USA
| | - Holly E Janes
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, USA; Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, USA; Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, USA
| | - Lindsey R Baden
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Harvard Medical School, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, USA
| | - Hana M El Sahly
- Department of Molecular Virology and Microbiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, USA
| | - Weiping Deng
- Infectious Disease Development, Moderna, Inc., Cambridge, USA
| | - Honghong Zhou
- Infectious Disease Development, Moderna, Inc., Cambridge, USA
| | - Brett Leav
- Infectious Disease Development, Moderna, Inc., Cambridge, USA
| | - David C Montefiori
- Department of Surgery and Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, USA
| | - Peter B Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, USA; Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, USA; Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, USA.
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Huang Y, Hejazi NS, Blette B, Carpp LN, Benkeser D, Montefiori DC, McDermott AB, Fong Y, Janes HE, Deng W, Zhou H, Houchens CR, Martins K, Jayashankar L, Flach B, Lin BC, O’Connell S, McDanal C, Eaton A, Sarzotti-Kelsoe M, Lu Y, Yu C, Kenny A, Carone M, Huynh C, Miller J, El Sahly HM, Baden LR, Jackson LA, Campbell TB, Clark J, Andrasik MP, Kublin JG, Corey L, Neuzil KM, Pajon R, Follmann D, Donis RO, Koup RA, Gilbert PB. Stochastic Interventional Vaccine Efficacy and Principal Surrogate Analyses of Antibody Markers as Correlates of Protection against Symptomatic COVID-19 in the COVE mRNA-1273 Trial. Viruses 2023; 15:2029. [PMID: 37896806 PMCID: PMC10612023 DOI: 10.3390/v15102029] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/14/2023] [Revised: 09/25/2023] [Accepted: 09/28/2023] [Indexed: 10/29/2023] Open
Abstract
The COVE trial randomized participants to receive two doses of mRNA-1273 vaccine or placebo on Days 1 and 29 (D1, D29). Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Spike IgG binding antibodies (bAbs), anti-receptor binding domain IgG bAbs, 50% inhibitory dilution neutralizing antibody (nAb) titers, and 80% inhibitory dilution nAb titers were measured at D29 and D57. We assessed these markers as correlates of protection (CoPs) against COVID-19 using stochastic interventional vaccine efficacy (SVE) analysis and principal surrogate (PS) analysis, frameworks not used in our previous COVE immune correlates analyses. By SVE analysis, hypothetical shifts of the D57 Spike IgG distribution from a geometric mean concentration (GMC) of 2737 binding antibody units (BAU)/mL (estimated vaccine efficacy (VE): 92.9% (95% CI: 91.7%, 93.9%)) to 274 BAU/mL or to 27,368 BAU/mL resulted in an overall estimated VE of 84.2% (79.0%, 88.1%) and 97.6% (97.4%, 97.7%), respectively. By binary marker PS analysis of Low and High subgroups (cut-point: 2094 BAU/mL), the ignorance interval (IGI) and estimated uncertainty interval (EUI) for VE were [85%, 90%] and (78%, 93%) for Low compared to [95%, 96%] and (92%, 97%) for High. By continuous marker PS analysis, the IGI and 95% EUI for VE at the 2.5th percentile (519.4 BAU/mL) vs. at the 97.5th percentile (9262.9 BAU/mL) of D57 Spike IgG concentration were [92.6%, 93.4%] and (89.2%, 95.7%) vs. [94.3%, 94.6%] and (89.7%, 97.0%). Results were similar for other D29 and D57 markers. Thus, the SVE and PS analyses additionally support all four markers at both time points as CoPs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ying Huang
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA; (Y.H.); (N.S.H.); (L.N.C.); (Y.F.); (H.E.J.); (Y.L.); (C.Y.); (M.P.A.); (J.G.K.); (L.C.)
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA; (A.K.); (M.C.)
| | - Nima S. Hejazi
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA; (Y.H.); (N.S.H.); (L.N.C.); (Y.F.); (H.E.J.); (Y.L.); (C.Y.); (M.P.A.); (J.G.K.); (L.C.)
- Department of Biostatistics, T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA 02115, USA
| | - Bryan Blette
- Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Informatics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA;
| | - Lindsay N. Carpp
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA; (Y.H.); (N.S.H.); (L.N.C.); (Y.F.); (H.E.J.); (Y.L.); (C.Y.); (M.P.A.); (J.G.K.); (L.C.)
| | - David Benkeser
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA 30322, USA;
| | - David C. Montefiori
- Department of Surgery, Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC 27710, USA; (D.C.M.); (C.M.); (A.E.); (M.S.-K.)
| | - Adrian B. McDermott
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA (B.F.); (B.C.L.); (R.A.K.)
| | - Youyi Fong
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA; (Y.H.); (N.S.H.); (L.N.C.); (Y.F.); (H.E.J.); (Y.L.); (C.Y.); (M.P.A.); (J.G.K.); (L.C.)
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
| | - Holly E. Janes
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA; (Y.H.); (N.S.H.); (L.N.C.); (Y.F.); (H.E.J.); (Y.L.); (C.Y.); (M.P.A.); (J.G.K.); (L.C.)
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
| | - Weiping Deng
- Moderna, Inc., Cambridge, MA 02139, USA; (W.D.); (H.Z.); (J.M.); (R.P.)
| | - Honghong Zhou
- Moderna, Inc., Cambridge, MA 02139, USA; (W.D.); (H.Z.); (J.M.); (R.P.)
| | - Christopher R. Houchens
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC 20201, USA; (C.R.H.); (L.J.); (C.H.); (R.O.D.)
| | - Karen Martins
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC 20201, USA; (C.R.H.); (L.J.); (C.H.); (R.O.D.)
| | - Lakshmi Jayashankar
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC 20201, USA; (C.R.H.); (L.J.); (C.H.); (R.O.D.)
| | - Britta Flach
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA (B.F.); (B.C.L.); (R.A.K.)
| | - Bob C. Lin
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA (B.F.); (B.C.L.); (R.A.K.)
| | - Sarah O’Connell
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA (B.F.); (B.C.L.); (R.A.K.)
| | - Charlene McDanal
- Department of Surgery, Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC 27710, USA; (D.C.M.); (C.M.); (A.E.); (M.S.-K.)
| | - Amanda Eaton
- Department of Surgery, Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC 27710, USA; (D.C.M.); (C.M.); (A.E.); (M.S.-K.)
| | - Marcella Sarzotti-Kelsoe
- Department of Surgery, Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC 27710, USA; (D.C.M.); (C.M.); (A.E.); (M.S.-K.)
| | - Yiwen Lu
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA; (Y.H.); (N.S.H.); (L.N.C.); (Y.F.); (H.E.J.); (Y.L.); (C.Y.); (M.P.A.); (J.G.K.); (L.C.)
| | - Chenchen Yu
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA; (Y.H.); (N.S.H.); (L.N.C.); (Y.F.); (H.E.J.); (Y.L.); (C.Y.); (M.P.A.); (J.G.K.); (L.C.)
| | - Avi Kenny
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA; (A.K.); (M.C.)
| | - Marco Carone
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA; (A.K.); (M.C.)
| | - Chuong Huynh
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC 20201, USA; (C.R.H.); (L.J.); (C.H.); (R.O.D.)
| | - Jacqueline Miller
- Moderna, Inc., Cambridge, MA 02139, USA; (W.D.); (H.Z.); (J.M.); (R.P.)
| | - Hana M. El Sahly
- Department of Molecular Virology and Microbiology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX 77030, USA;
| | | | - Lisa A. Jackson
- Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute, Seattle, WA 98101, USA;
| | - Thomas B. Campbell
- Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, CO 80045, USA;
| | - Jesse Clark
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA;
| | - Michele P. Andrasik
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA; (Y.H.); (N.S.H.); (L.N.C.); (Y.F.); (H.E.J.); (Y.L.); (C.Y.); (M.P.A.); (J.G.K.); (L.C.)
| | - James G. Kublin
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA; (Y.H.); (N.S.H.); (L.N.C.); (Y.F.); (H.E.J.); (Y.L.); (C.Y.); (M.P.A.); (J.G.K.); (L.C.)
| | - Lawrence Corey
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA; (Y.H.); (N.S.H.); (L.N.C.); (Y.F.); (H.E.J.); (Y.L.); (C.Y.); (M.P.A.); (J.G.K.); (L.C.)
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Kathleen M. Neuzil
- Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD 21201, USA;
| | - Rolando Pajon
- Moderna, Inc., Cambridge, MA 02139, USA; (W.D.); (H.Z.); (J.M.); (R.P.)
| | - Dean Follmann
- Biostatistics Research Branch, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA;
| | - Ruben O. Donis
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC 20201, USA; (C.R.H.); (L.J.); (C.H.); (R.O.D.)
| | - Richard A. Koup
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA (B.F.); (B.C.L.); (R.A.K.)
| | - Peter B. Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA; (Y.H.); (N.S.H.); (L.N.C.); (Y.F.); (H.E.J.); (Y.L.); (C.Y.); (M.P.A.); (J.G.K.); (L.C.)
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA; (A.K.); (M.C.)
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Benkeser D, Montefiori DC, McDermott AB, Fong Y, Janes HE, Deng W, Zhou H, Houchens CR, Martins K, Jayashankar L, Castellino F, Flach B, Lin BC, O’Connell S, McDanal C, Eaton A, Sarzotti-Kelsoe M, Lu Y, Yu C, Borate B, van der Laan LWP, Hejazi NS, Kenny A, Carone M, Williamson BD, Garver J, Altonen E, Rudge T, Huynh C, Miller J, El Sahly HM, Baden LR, Frey S, Malkin E, Spector SA, Andrasik MP, Kublin JG, Corey L, Neuzil KM, Carpp LN, Pajon R, Follmann D, Donis RO, Koup RA, Gilbert PB. Comparing antibody assays as correlates of protection against COVID-19 in the COVE mRNA-1273 vaccine efficacy trial. Sci Transl Med 2023; 15:eade9078. [PMID: 37075127 PMCID: PMC10243212 DOI: 10.1126/scitranslmed.ade9078] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/17/2022] [Accepted: 03/27/2023] [Indexed: 04/21/2023]
Abstract
The best assay or marker to define mRNA-1273 vaccine-induced antibodies as a correlate of protection (CoP) is unclear. In the COVE trial, participants received two doses of the mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccine or placebo. We previously assessed IgG binding antibodies to the spike protein (spike IgG) or receptor binding domain (RBD IgG) and pseudovirus neutralizing antibody 50 or 80% inhibitory dilution titer measured on day 29 or day 57, as correlates of risk (CoRs) and CoPs against symptomatic COVID-19 over 4 months after dose. Here, we assessed a new marker, live virus 50% microneutralization titer (LV-MN50), and compared and combined markers in multivariable analyses. LV-MN50 was an inverse CoR, with a hazard ratio of 0.39 (95% confidence interval, 0.19 to 0.83) at day 29 and 0.51 (95% confidence interval, 0.25 to 1.04) at day 57 per 10-fold increase. In multivariable analyses, pseudovirus neutralization titers and anti-spike binding antibodies performed best as CoRs; combining antibody markers did not improve correlates. Pseudovirus neutralization titer was the strongest independent correlate in a multivariable model. Overall, these results supported pseudovirus neutralizing and binding antibody assays as CoRs and CoPs, with the live virus assay as a weaker correlate in this sample set. Day 29 markers performed as well as day 57 markers as CoPs, which could accelerate immunogenicity and immunobridging studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- David Benkeser
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA 30322, USA
| | - David C. Montefiori
- Department of Surgery and Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC 27710, USA
| | - Adrian B. McDermott
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA
| | - Youyi Fong
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
| | - Holly E. Janes
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
| | | | | | | | - Karen Martins
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC 20201, USA
| | - Lakshmi Jayashankar
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC 20201, USA
| | - Flora Castellino
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC 20201, USA
| | - Britta Flach
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA
| | - Bob C. Lin
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA
| | - Sarah O’Connell
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA
| | - Charlene McDanal
- Department of Surgery and Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC 27710, USA
| | - Amanda Eaton
- Department of Surgery and Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC 27710, USA
| | - Marcella Sarzotti-Kelsoe
- Department of Surgery and Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC 27710, USA
| | - Yiwen Lu
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
| | - Chenchen Yu
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
| | - Bhavesh Borate
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
| | - Lars W. P. van der Laan
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
| | - Nima S. Hejazi
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
- Department of Biostatistics, T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA 02115, USA
| | - Avi Kenny
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Marco Carone
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Brian D. Williamson
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
- Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute, Seattle, WA 98101, USA
| | | | | | | | - Chuong Huynh
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC 20201, USA
| | | | | | | | - Sharon Frey
- Department of Internal Medicine, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO 63110, USA
| | - Elissa Malkin
- Vaccine Research Unit, School of Medicine and Health Sciences, George Washington University, Washington, DC 20052, USA
| | - Stephen A. Spector
- Division of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA
- Rady Children’s Hospital, San Diego, CA 92123, USA
| | - Michele P. Andrasik
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
| | - James G. Kublin
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
| | - Lawrence Corey
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98115, USA
| | - Kathleen M. Neuzil
- Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD 21201, USA
| | - Lindsay N. Carpp
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
| | | | - Dean Follmann
- Biostatistics Research Branch, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA
| | - Ruben O. Donis
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC 20201, USA
| | - Richard A. Koup
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA
| | - Peter B. Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
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Fong Y, Huang Y, Benkeser D, Carpp LN, Áñez G, Woo W, McGarry A, Dunkle LM, Cho I, Houchens CR, Martins K, Jayashankar L, Castellino F, Petropoulos CJ, Leith A, Haugaard D, Webb B, Lu Y, Yu C, Borate B, van der Laan LWP, Hejazi NS, Randhawa AK, Andrasik MP, Kublin JG, Hutter J, Keshtkar-Jahromi M, Beresnev TH, Corey L, Neuzil KM, Follmann D, Ake JA, Gay CL, Kotloff KL, Koup RA, Donis RO, Gilbert PB. Immune correlates analysis of the PREVENT-19 COVID-19 vaccine efficacy clinical trial. Nat Commun 2023; 14:331. [PMID: 36658109 PMCID: PMC9851580 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-35768-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 30.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/11/2022] [Accepted: 12/28/2022] [Indexed: 01/21/2023] Open
Abstract
In the PREVENT-19 phase 3 trial of the NVX-CoV2373 vaccine (NCT04611802), anti-spike binding IgG concentration (spike IgG), anti-RBD binding IgG concentration (RBD IgG), and pseudovirus 50% neutralizing antibody titer (nAb ID50) measured two weeks post-dose two are assessed as correlates of risk and as correlates of protection against COVID-19. Analyses are conducted in the U.S. cohort of baseline SARS-CoV-2 negative per-protocol participants using a case-cohort design that measures the markers from all 12 vaccine recipient breakthrough COVID-19 cases starting 7 days post antibody measurement and from 639 vaccine recipient non-cases. All markers are inversely associated with COVID-19 risk and directly associated with vaccine efficacy. In vaccine recipients with nAb ID50 titers of 50, 100, and 7230 international units (IU50)/ml, vaccine efficacy estimates are 75.7% (49.8%, 93.2%), 81.7% (66.3%, 93.2%), and 96.8% (88.3%, 99.3%). The results support potential cross-vaccine platform applications of these markers for guiding decisions about vaccine approval and use.
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Affiliation(s)
- Youyi Fong
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Yunda Huang
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
| | - David Benkeser
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Lindsay N Carpp
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | - Wayne Woo
- Novavax, Inc., Gaithersburg, MD, USA
| | | | | | | | | | - Karen Martins
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC, USA
| | | | - Flora Castellino
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC, USA
| | | | | | | | | | - Yiwen Lu
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Chenchen Yu
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Bhavesh Borate
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Lars W P van der Laan
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Nima S Hejazi
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Biostatistics, T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - April K Randhawa
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Michele P Andrasik
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - James G Kublin
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Julia Hutter
- Division of Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, NIH, Rockville, MD, USA
| | - Maryam Keshtkar-Jahromi
- Division of Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, NIH, Rockville, MD, USA
| | - Tatiana H Beresnev
- Division of Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, NIH, Rockville, MD, USA
| | - Lawrence Corey
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Kathleen M Neuzil
- Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Dean Follmann
- Biostatistics Research Branch, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Julie A Ake
- U.S. Military HIV Research Program, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, MD, USA
| | - Cynthia L Gay
- University of North Carolina School of Medicine, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
| | - Karen L Kotloff
- Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Richard A Koup
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Ruben O Donis
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Peter B Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
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5
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Fong Y, McDermott AB, Benkeser D, Roels S, Stieh DJ, Vandebosch A, Le Gars M, Van Roey GA, Houchens CR, Martins K, Jayashankar L, Castellino F, Amoa-Awua O, Basappa M, Flach B, Lin BC, Moore C, Naisan M, Naqvi M, Narpala S, O'Connell S, Mueller A, Serebryannyy L, Castro M, Wang J, Petropoulos CJ, Luedtke A, Hyrien O, Lu Y, Yu C, Borate B, van der Laan LWP, Hejazi NS, Kenny A, Carone M, Wolfe DN, Sadoff J, Gray GE, Grinsztejn B, Goepfert PA, Little SJ, Paiva de Sousa L, Maboa R, Randhawa AK, Andrasik MP, Hendriks J, Truyers C, Struyf F, Schuitemaker H, Douoguih M, Kublin JG, Corey L, Neuzil KM, Carpp LN, Follmann D, Gilbert PB, Koup RA, Donis RO. Immune correlates analysis of the ENSEMBLE single Ad26.COV2.S dose vaccine efficacy clinical trial. Nat Microbiol 2022; 7:1996-2010. [PMID: 36357712 PMCID: PMC10166187 DOI: 10.1038/s41564-022-01262-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2022] [Accepted: 10/04/2022] [Indexed: 11/12/2022]
Abstract
Measuring immune correlates of disease acquisition and protection in the context of a clinical trial is a prerequisite for improved vaccine design. We analysed binding and neutralizing antibody measurements 4 weeks post vaccination as correlates of risk of moderate to severe-critical COVID-19 through 83 d post vaccination in the phase 3, double-blind placebo-controlled phase of ENSEMBLE, an international randomized efficacy trial of a single dose of Ad26.COV2.S. We also evaluated correlates of protection in the trial cohort. Of the three antibody immune markers we measured, we found most support for 50% inhibitory dilution (ID50) neutralizing antibody titre as a correlate of risk and of protection. The outcome hazard ratio was 0.49 (95% confidence interval 0.29, 0.81; P = 0.006) per 10-fold increase in ID50; vaccine efficacy was 60% (43%, 72%) at non-quantifiable ID50 (<2.7 IU50 ml-1) and increased to 89% (78%, 96%) at ID50 = 96.3 IU50 ml-1. Comparison of the vaccine efficacy by ID50 titre curves for ENSEMBLE-US, the COVE trial of the mRNA-1273 vaccine and the COV002-UK trial of the AZD1222 vaccine supported the ID50 titre as a correlate of protection across trials and vaccine types.
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Affiliation(s)
- Youyi Fong
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Adrian B McDermott
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - David Benkeser
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Sanne Roels
- Janssen R&D, a division of Janssen Pharmaceutica NV, Beerse, Belgium
| | - Daniel J Stieh
- Janssen Vaccines and Prevention, Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - An Vandebosch
- Janssen R&D, a division of Janssen Pharmaceutica NV, Beerse, Belgium
| | | | | | | | - Karen Martins
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC, USA
| | | | - Flora Castellino
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Obrimpong Amoa-Awua
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Manjula Basappa
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Britta Flach
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Bob C Lin
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Christopher Moore
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Mursal Naisan
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Muhammed Naqvi
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Sandeep Narpala
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Sarah O'Connell
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Allen Mueller
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Leo Serebryannyy
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Mike Castro
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Jennifer Wang
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | | | - Alex Luedtke
- Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Ollivier Hyrien
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Yiwen Lu
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Chenchen Yu
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Bhavesh Borate
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Lars W P van der Laan
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Nima S Hejazi
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Division of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, New York, NY, USA
| | - Avi Kenny
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington School of Public Health, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Marco Carone
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington School of Public Health, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Daniel N Wolfe
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Jerald Sadoff
- Janssen Vaccines and Prevention, Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - Glenda E Gray
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
- South African Medical Research Council, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Beatriz Grinsztejn
- Evandro Chagas National Institute of Infectious Diseases-Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Paul A Goepfert
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA
| | - Susan J Little
- Division of Infectious Diseases, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
| | - Leonardo Paiva de Sousa
- Evandro Chagas National Institute of Infectious Diseases-Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Rebone Maboa
- Ndlovu Elandsdoorn Site, Dennilton, Limpopo, South Africa
| | - April K Randhawa
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Michele P Andrasik
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Jenny Hendriks
- Janssen Vaccines and Prevention, Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - Carla Truyers
- Janssen R&D, a division of Janssen Pharmaceutica NV, Beerse, Belgium
| | - Frank Struyf
- Janssen R&D, a division of Janssen Pharmaceutica NV, Beerse, Belgium
| | | | | | - James G Kublin
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Lawrence Corey
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Kathleen M Neuzil
- Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Lindsay N Carpp
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Dean Follmann
- Biostatistics Research Branch, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Peter B Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington School of Public Health, Seattle, WA, USA.
| | - Richard A Koup
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Ruben O Donis
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, DC, USA
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