Determining four confounding factors in individual cognitive traits prediction with functional connectivity: an exploratory study

Using precision approaches to improve brain-behavior prediction

Predicting individual behavioral traits from brain idiosyncrasies has broad practical implications, yet predictions vary widely. This constraint may be driven by a combination of signal and noise in both brain and behavioral variables. Here, we expand on this idea, highlighting the potential of extended sampling 'precision' studies. First, we discuss their relevance to improving the reliability of individualized estimates by minimizing measurement noise. Second, we review how targeted within-subject experiments, when combined with individualized analysis or modeling frameworks, can maximize signal. These improvements in signal-to-noise facilitated by precision designs can help boost prediction studies. We close by discussing the integration of precision approaches with large-sample consortia studies to leverage the advantages of both.

MRI economics: Balancing sample size and scan duration in brain wide association studies

A pervasive dilemma in neuroimaging is whether to prioritize sample size or scan time given fixed resources. Here, we systematically investigate this trade-off in the context of brain-wide association studies (BWAS) using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). We find that total scan duration (sample size × scan time per participant) robustly explains individual-level phenotypic prediction accuracy via a logarithmic model, suggesting that sample size and scan time are broadly interchangeable up to 20-30 min of data. However, the returns of scan time diminish relative to sample size, which we explain with principled theoretical derivations. When accounting for fixed overhead costs associated with each participant (e.g., recruitment, non-imaging measures), prediction accuracy in many small-scale and some large-scale BWAS might benefit from longer scan time than typically assumed. These results generalize across phenotypic domains, scanners, acquisition protocols, racial groups, mental disorders, age groups, as well as resting-state and task-state functional connectivity. Overall, our study emphasizes the importance of scan time, which is ignored in standard power calculations. Standard power calculations maximize sample size, at the expense of scan time, which can result in sub-optimal prediction accuracies and inefficient use of resources. Our empirically informed reference is available for future study design: WEB_APPLICATION_LINK.