The Application of Dynamic Time Warping to the Quality Evaluation of Radix Puerariae thomsonii: Correcting Retention Time Shift in the Chromatographic Fingerprints

The Potential Use of Herbal Fingerprints by Means of HPLC and TLC for Characterization and Identification of Herbal Extracts and the Distinction of Latvian Native Medicinal Plants

The growing market of herbal medicines, the increase in international trade in Latvia, and the lack of adequate analytical methods have raised the question of the potential use of herbal fingerprinting methods. In this study, high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and thin layer chromatography (TLC) methods were developed for obtaining chromatographic fingerprints of four taxonomically and evolutionary different medicinal plants (Hibiscus sabdariffa L., Calendula officinalis L., Matricaria recutita L., Achillea millefolium L.). Retention time shifting, principal component analysis (PCA), hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA), and orthogonal projections to latent structures (OPLS) analysis were used to improve and analyze the obtained fingerprints. HPLC data detection at 270 nm was determined superior to 360 nm for the distinction of medicinal plants and used data alignment method significantly increased similarity between samples. Analyzed medicinal plant extracts formed separate, compact clusters in PCA, and the results of HCA correlated with the evolutionary relationships of the analyzed medicinal plants. Herbal fingerprinting using chromatographic analysis coupled with multivariate analysis has a great potential for the identification of medicinal plants as well as for the distinction of Latvian native medicinal plants.

Gas Chromatographic Fingerprint Analysis for the Comparison of Seized Cannabis Samples

Cannabis sativa L. is widely used as recreational illegal drugs. Illicit Cannabis profiling, comparing seized samples, is challenging due to natural Cannabis heterogeneity. The aim of this study was to use GC-FID and GC-MS herbal fingerprints for intra (within)- and inter (between)-location variability evaluation. This study focused on finding an acceptable threshold to link seized samples. Through Pearson correlation-coefficient calculations between intra-location samples, 'linked' thresholds were derived using 95% and 99% confidence limits. False negative (FN) and false positive (FP) error rate calculations, aiming at obtaining the lowest possible FP value, were performed for different data pre-treatments. Fingerprint-alignment parameters were optimized using Automated Correlation-Optimized Warping (ACOW) or Design of Experiments (DoE), which presented similar results. Hence, ACOW data, as reference, showed 54% and 65% FP values (95 and 99% confidence, respectively). An additional fourth root normalization pre-treatment provided the best results for both the GC-FID and GC-MS datasets. For GC-FID, which showed the best improved FP error rate, 54 and 65% FP for the reference data decreased to 24 and 32%, respectively, after fourth root transformation. Cross-validation showed FP values similar as the entire calibration set, indicating the representativeness of the thresholds. A noteworthy improvement in discrimination between seized Cannabis samples could be concluded.

Epidemiology of Coronavirus COVID-19: Forecasting the Future Incidence in Different Countries

This paper forecasts the future spread of COVID-19 by exploiting the identified lead-lag effects between different countries. Specifically, we first determine the past relation among nations with the aid of dynamic time warping. This procedure allows an elastic adjustment of the time axis to find similar but phase-shifted sequences. Afterwards, the established framework utilizes information about the leading country to predict the Coronavirus spread of the following nation. The presented methodology is applied to confirmed Coronavirus cases from 1 January 2020 to 28 March 2020. Our results show that China leads all other countries in the range of 29 days for South Korea and 44 days for the United States. Finally, we predict a future collapse of the healthcare systems of the United Kingdom and Switzerland in case of our explosion scenario.