Change in Fibrosis 4 Index as Predictor of High Risk of Incident Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Eradication of Hepatitis C Virus

Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence after antiviral therapy for patients with chronic hepatitis C Infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence following antiviral therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) remains unclear. The current study aims to compare: (1) the HCC occurrence rate following sustained virological response (SVR) versus non-response (NR); (2) the HCC occurrence rate following direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy versus interferon (IFN)-based therapy, and (3) the HCC occurrence rate in SVR patients with or without cirrhosis.

METHODS

A search was performed for articles published between January 2017 and July 2022. Studies were included if they assessed HCC occurrence rate in CHC patients following anti-HCV therapy. Random effects meta-analysis was used to synthesize the results from individual studies.

RESULTS

A total of 23 studies including 29,395 patients (IFN-based = 6, DAA = 17; prospective = 10, retrospective = 13) were included in the review. HCC occurrence was significantly lower in CHC with SVR (1.54 per 100 person-years (py, 95% CI 1.52, 1.57) than those in non-responders (7.80 py, 95% CI 7.61, 7.99). Stratified by HCV treatment regimens, HCC occurrence following SVR was 1.17 per 100 py (95% CI 1.11, 1.22) and 1.60 per 100 py (95% CI 1.58, 1.63) in IFN- and DAA treatment-based studies. HCC occurrence was 0.85 per 100 py (95% CI 0.85, 0.86) in the non-cirrhosis population and rose to 2.47 per 100 py (95% CI 2.42, 2.52) in the cirrhosis population. Further meta-regression analysis showed that treatment types were not associated with a higher HCC occurrence rate, while cirrhosis status was an important factor of HCC occurrence rate.

CONCLUSION

HCC occurrence was significantly lower in the SVR population than in the NR population. HCC risk following SVR occurred three times more frequently in patients with cirrhosis than patients without cirrhosis. However, we found no significant difference in HCC occurrence risk following SVR between DAA and IFN therapies.

CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER

CRD42023473033.

Effect of treatment periods on efficacy of glecaprevir and pibrentasvir in chronic hepatitis C: A nationwide, prospective, multicenter study

Background and aim

In patients with chronic hepatitis C, 8 weeks of glecaprevir and pibrentasvir (GLE/PIB) treatment for chronic hepatitis (non-cirrhosis) and 12 weeks for cirrhosis have been approved in Japan. However, whether 8 weeks of treatment for cirrhosis may reduce treatment efficacy has not been adequately investigated.

Methods

This prospective, nationwide, multicenter cohort study enrolled 1275 patients with chronic hepatitis C who received GLE/PIB therapy. The effect of liver fibrosis and treatment periods on the efficiency of GLE/PIB therapy was investigated. The primary endpoint was the sustained virological response (SVR) rate in patients with chronic hepatitis (non-cirrhosis) and cirrhosis. The association between treatment periods and liver fibrosis on the SVR after 12 weeks of treatment rate was investigated.

Results

The SVR rates in patients with chronic hepatitis with 8 weeks of treatment, chronic hepatitis with 12 weeks of treatment, cirrhosis with 8 weeks of treatment, and cirrhosis with 12 weeks of treatment were 98.9% (800/809), 100% (87/87), 100% (166/166), and 99.1% (211/213), respectively, and were was not different among these groups (P = 0.4).

Conclusion

GLE/PIB therapy for chronic hepatitis C had high efficacy regardless of liver fibrosis status and treatment periods. Periods of GLE/PIB therapy could be chosen with available modalities, and high SVR rates could be achieved regardless of the decision.

Prognostic Nutritional Index as a Prognostic Factor for Very Early-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma

INTRODUCTION

Field factors play more important roles in predicting the outcomes of patients compared with tumor factors in early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the prognostic ability of noninvasive serum marker scores for hepatic fibrosis and liver functional reserve on very early-stage HCC is still not yet determined. We aimed to investigate the performance of these serum marker scores in predicting the prognoses of patients with very early-stage HCC.

METHODS

A total of 446 patients with very early-stage HCC from 2012 to 2022 were retrospectively enrolled. Serum biomarkers and prognostic scores determining overall survival (OS) were analyzed by Cox proportional hazards model. We compared the Akaike information criterion among the prognostic nutritional index (PNI), aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score, EZ (easy)-ALBI score, modified ALBI score, fibrosis-4 score, and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio to determine the predictability on the OS.

RESULTS

After a median follow-up of 41.0 months (interquartile range 36.9-45.1 months), 81 patients died, with a 5-year OS rate of 71.0%. Among the noninvasive serum marker scores, PNI had the best performance in predicting the OS with the lowest Akaike information criterion (846.407) compared with other scores. Moreover, we stratified the patients into high-risk (PNI <45) and low-risk (PNI ≥45) groups. It showed that the 5-year OS rates were 83.4% and 60.8% in the low-risk and high-risk PNI groups, respectively ( P < 0.001).

DISCUSSION

PNI had the best performance in predicting the OS for patients with very early-stage HCC.

Evaluation of soluble suppression of tumorigenicity 2 (sST2) as serum marker for liver fibrosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

With the increase in patients at risk of advanced liver disease due to the obesity epidemic, there will be a need for simple screening tools for advanced liver fibrosis. Soluble suppression of tumorigenicity 2 (sST2) is a serum biomarker for fibrotic processes. The aim of this study was to evaluate sST2 as marker for liver fibrosis in patients successfully treated for chronic hepatitis C.

METHODS

424 patients from the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort Study were screened for inclusion in this post-hoc cohort study. Inclusion criteria were sustained virological response (SVR), available elastography (VCTE) and serum samples for biomarker analysis before and after treatment. For the validation of sST2, values were compared to VCTE, FIB-4 and APRI using Spearman's correlation and AUROC analyses.

RESULTS

Data of 164 subjects were finally analyzed. Median sST2 values slightly increased with VCTE-derived fibrosis stages and remained stable after reaching SVR within the respective fibrosis stage, suggesting that sST2 is not influenced by liver inflammation. However, correlation of sST2 pre- and post-treatment with VCTE was fair (Spearman's rho = 0.39 and rho = 0.36). The area under the curve (AUROC) for sST2 in detecting VCTE-defined F4 fibrosis (vs. F0-F3) before therapy was 0.74 (95%CI 0.65-0.83), and 0.67(95%CI 0.56-0.78) for the discrimination of F3/F4 fibrosis vs. F0-F2. Adding sST2 to either APRI or FIB-4, respectively, increased diagnostic performance of both tests.

CONCLUSIONS

sST2 can potentially identify patients with advanced fibrosis as a single serum marker and in combination with APRI and FIB-4.

Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development in Korean Patients after Hepatitis C Cure with Direct-Acting Antivirals

Background/Aims

With the wide application of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) for hepatitis C virus infection, the number of patients achieving a sustained virologic response (SVR) will continue to increase. However, no consensus has been achieved on exempting SVR-achieving patients from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance.

Methods

Between 2013 and 2021, 873 Korean patients who achieved SVR following DAA treatment were analyzed. We evaluated the predictive performance of seven noninvasive scores (PAGE-B, modified PAGE-B, Toronto HCC risk index, fibrosis-4, aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index, albumin-bilirubin, and age male albumin-bilirubin platelet [aMAP]) at baseline and after SVR.

Results

The mean age of the 873 patients (39.3% males) was 59.1 years, and 224 patients (25.7%) had cirrhosis. During 3,542 person-years of follow-up, 44 patients developed HCC, with an annual incidence of 1.24/100 person-years. Male sex (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 2.21), cirrhosis (AHR, 7.93), and older age (AHR, 1.05) were associated with a significantly higher HCC risk in multivariate analysis. The performance of all scores at the time of SVR were numerically better than those at baseline as determined by the integrated area under the curve. Time-dependent area under the curves for predicting the 3-, 5-, and 7-year risk of HCC after SVR were higher in mPAGE-B (0.778, 0.746, and 0.812, respectively) and aMAP (0.776, 0.747, and 0.790, respectively) systems than others. No patients predicted as low-risk by the aMAP or mPAGE-B systems developed HCC.

Conclusions

aMAP and mPAGE-B scores demonstrated the highest predictive performance for de novo HCC in DAA-treated, SVR-achieving patients. Hence, these two systems may be used to identify low-risk patients that can be exempted from HCC surveillance.

Detecting advanced liver fibrosis using ultrasound shear wave velocity measurement in the general population

Background

Advanced fibrosis detection in the general population is an unmet need. Additionally, screening method for advanced fibrosis in the general population is not established. Thus, this study aimed to examine the use of shear wave measurement (SWM), which measures liver stiffness by ultrasound elastography as a screening tool for advanced fibrosis in health checkups that represents the general population.

Methods

SWM was performed in all subjects. Magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) was performed in those with SWM shear wave velocity (Vs) ≥1.3 m/s to determinate advanced fibrosis. The diagnostic accuracy of SWM Vs for advanced fibrosis (determined by MRE of ≥3.62 kPa) was examined. This prospective study was registered with the University Hospital Medical Information Network clinical trial registry (UMIN000041609).

Results

A total of 2,233 subjects were included. SWM Vs of 1.64 m/s was selected as the best threshold for advanced fibrosis. Using the threshold of SWM Vs at ≥1.64 m/s, subjects were narrowed down to 1.7%, and sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) for advanced fibrosis were 53.3%, 92.4%, 47.1%, and 94.0%, respectively, among these subjects. The multivariable analysis, after adjusting the age, sex, body mass index (BMI), hypertension, diabetes mellitus (DM), dyslipidemia, and alcohol use, revealed an SWM Vs of ≥1.64 m/s as the significant factor for advanced fibrosis with an odds ratio (95% confidence interval) of 14.5 (3.4-62; P<0.001).

Conclusions

SWM has high diagnostic accuracy for advanced fibrosis (PPV 47.1%) and may be used as a screening tool for liver fibrosis in the general population.

Hepatocellular organellar abnormalities following elimination of hepatitis C virus

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The future development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients after sustained virologic response (SVR) is an important issue. The purposes of this study were to investigate pathological alterations in organelle of the liver of SVR patients and to characterize organelle abnormalities that may be related to carcinogenesis after SVR.

METHODS

The ultrastructure of liver biopsy specimens from patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) and SVR were compared to cell and mouse models and assessed semi-quantitatively using transmission electron microscopy.

RESULTS

Hepatocytes in patients with CHC showed abnormalities in the nucleus, mitochondria, endoplasmic reticulum, lipid droplet, and pericellular fibrosis, comparable to those seen in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected mice and cells. DAA treatment significantly reduced organelle abnormalities such as the nucleus, mitochondria, and lipid droplet in the hepatocytes of patients and mice after SVR, and cured cells, but it did not change dilated/degranulated endoplasmic reticulum and pericellular fibrosis in patients and mice after SVR. Further, samples from patients with a post-SVR period of >1 year had significantly larger numbers of abnormalities in the mitochondria and endoplasmic reticulum than those of <1 year. A possible cause of organelle abnormalities in patients after SVR could be oxidative stress of the endoplasmic reticulum and mitochondria associated with abnormalities of the vascular system due to fibrosis. Interestingly, abnormal endoplasmic reticulum was associated with patients with HCC for >1 year after SVR.

CONCLUSIONS

These results indicate that patients with SVR exhibit a persistent disease state and require long-term follow-up to detect early signs of carcinogenesis.

Risk stratification and early detection biomarkers for precision HCC screening

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) mortality remains high primarily due to late diagnosis as a consequence of failed early detection. Professional societies recommend semi-annual HCC screening in at-risk patients with chronic liver disease to increase the likelihood of curative treatment receipt and improve survival. However, recent dynamic shift of HCC etiologies from viral to metabolic liver diseases has significantly increased the potential target population for the screening, whereas annual incidence rate has become substantially lower. Thus, with the contemporary HCC etiologies, the traditional screening approach might not be practical and cost-effective. HCC screening consists of (i) definition of rational at-risk population, and subsequent (ii) repeated application of early detection tests to the population at regular intervals. The suboptimal performance of the currently available HCC screening tests highlights an urgent need for new modalities and strategies to improve early HCC detection. In this review, we overview recent developments of clinical, molecular, and imaging-based tools to address the current challenge, and discuss conceptual framework and approaches of their clinical translation and implementation. These encouraging progresses are expected to transform the current "one-size-fits-all" HCC screening into individualized precision approaches to early HCC detection and ultimately improve the poor HCC prognosis in the foreseeable future.

Prognostic Significance of Hemoglobin, Albumin, Lymphocyte and Platelet (HALP) Score in Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Purpose

HALP score consisting of hemoglobin content, albumin content, lymphocyte count, and platelet count can comprehensively evaluate the inflammatory response and nutritional status. Many researchers have indicated that the HALP score is an effective predictor of the overall prognosis of various tumors. However, there is no relevant research to suggest whether the HALP score can predict the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

Patients and Methods

We retrospectively analyzed 273 HCC patients who underwent surgical resection. Hemoglobin content, albumin content, lymphocyte count, and platelet count in peripheral blood were measured for each patient. The relationship between the HALP score and overall survival (OS) was investigated.

Results

With a mean of 56.69 ± 1.25 months follow-up, the 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS was 98.9%, 76.9%, and 55.3% for all patients, respectively. HALP scores (HR=1.708, 95% CI=1.192-2.448, P=0.004) were significant independent risk factors of OS. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS were 99.3%, 84.3%, and 63.4% for patients with high HALP scores; and 98.6%, 69.8%, and 47.5% for patients with low HALP scores, respectively (P=0.018). In TNM I-II stage patients, compared with high HALP scores, low HALP scores have worse OS (P=0.039). In AFP positive patients, compared with high HALP scores, low HALP scores have worse OS (P=0.042).

Conclusion

Our research showed the preoperative HALP score is an independent predictive factor of overall prognosis, and a low HALP score indicates a worse prognosis in HCC patients who underwent surgical resection.

Necessity for surveillance for hepatocellualr carcinoma in older patients with chronic hepatitis C who achieved sustained virological response

Background and Aim

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance in low-risk patients (annual incidence <1.5%) is not recommended per the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases guidelines. Because patients with chronic hepatitis C with non-advanced fibrosis who have achieved sustained virological response (SVR) have a low risk of HCC, HCC surveillance is not recommended for them. However, aging is a risk factor for HCC; threfore, the necessity for HCC surveillance in older patients with non-advanced fibrosis needs to be verified.

Methods

This multicenter, prospective study enrolled 4993 patients with SVR (1998 patients with advanced fibrosis and 2995 patients with non-advanced fibrosis). The HCC incidence was examined with particular attention to age.

Results

The 3-year incidence of HCC in patients with advanced and non-advanced fibrosis was 9.2% (95% CI: 7.8-10.9) and 2.9% (95% CI: 2.1-3.7), respectively. HCC incidence was significantly higher in patients with advanced fibrosis (P < 0.001). HCC incidence stratified by age and sex was investigated in patients with non-advanced fibrosis. The HCC incidence in the 18-49, 50s, 60s, 70s, and ≥80 age groups were 0.26, 1.3, 1.8, 1.7, and 2.9 per 100 person-years in men, and 0.00, 0.32, 0.58, 0.49, and 0.57 per 100 person-years in women, respectively.

Conclusions

Male patients with non-advanced fibrosis aged ≥60 years have a higher risk of developing HCC and, thus, require HCC surveillance.

Dynamic Changes in Non-Invasive Markers of Liver Fibrosis Are Predictors of Liver Events after SVR in HCV Patients

Objectives: The course of progressive liver damage after achieving sustained virological response (SVR) with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) remains undetermined. We aimed to determine risk factors associated with the development of liver-related events (LREs) after SVR, focusing on the utility of non-invasive markers. Methods: An observational, retrospective study that included patients with advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) caused by hepatitis C virus (HCV), who achieved SVR with DAAs between 2014 and 2017. Patients were followed-up until December 2020. LREs were defined as the development of portal hypertension decompensation and the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Serological markers of fibrosis were calculated before treatment and one and two years after SVR. Results: The study included 321 patients, with a median follow-up of 48 months. LREs occurred in 13.7% of patients (10% portal hypertension decompensation and 3.7% HCC). Child-Pugh [HR 4.13 (CI 95% 1.74; 9.81)], baseline FIB-4 [HR 1.12 (CI 95% 1.03; 1.21)], FIB-4 one year post-SVR [HR 1.31 (CI 95% 1.15; 1.48)] and FIB-4 two years post-SVR [HR 1.42 (CI 95% 1.23; 1.64)] were associated with portal hypertension decompensation. Older age, genotype 3, diabetes mellitus and FIB-4 before and after SVR were associated with the development of HCC. FIB-4 cut-off values one and two years post-SVR to predict portal hypertension decompensation were 2.03 and 2.21, respectively, and to predict HCC were 2.42 and 2.70, respectively. Conclusions: HCV patients with ACLD remain at risk of developing liver complications after having achieved SVR. FIB-4 evaluation before and after SVR may help to predict this risk, selecting patients who will benefit from surveillance.

Fucosylated haptoglobin is a novel predictive marker of hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatitis C virus elimination in patients with advanced liver fibrosis

BACKGROUND

Patients with advanced fibrosis are at risk for developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) even after hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination. We previously reported that serum fucosylated haptoglobin (Fuc-Hp) levels increase as the disease progresses from chronic hepatitis to cirrhosis and then HCC. However, it remains unclear whether serum Fuc-Hp levels can stratify the risk of HCC occurrence after a sustained virological response (SVR) is achieved with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) in patients with advanced liver fibrosis.

METHODS

Among 3,550 patients with chronic hepatitis C treated with DAAs at Osaka University Hospital and related hospitals, the stored sera of 140 patients who were diagnosed with F3 or F4 by liver biopsy before DAA treatment, achieved SVR, and had no history of HCC were available at both baseline and the end of treatment (EOT). We measured the Fuc-Hp levels in these samples.

RESULTS

The median serum levels of Fuc-Hp at EOT were significantly lower than those at baseline. During the 54.4-month follow-up period, 16 of 140 patients developed HCC. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis revealed that high Fuc-Hp at EOT, high body mass index (BMI), and low albumin at EOT were independent risk factors for HCC occurrence. Patients with all three factors-high Fuc-Hp, high BMI, and low albumin-had a higher incidence of HCC than patients without these factors.

CONCLUSIONS

High serum Fuc-Hp levels at EOT were an independent risk factor for HCC occurrence after SVR. Combined with BMI and albumin, Fuc-Hp can stratify the risk of HCC occurrence among those with advanced fibrosis.

Comparison of Surgical Resection and Percutaneous Ultrasonographic Guided Radiofrequency Ablation for Initial Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Early Stage following Curative Treatment

Background/Aim: The SURF trial showed that surgical resection (SR) and percutaneous ultrasonographic guided radiofrequency ablation (RFA) had equal therapeutic effects for small hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, consensus regarding which treatment is appropriate for initial recurrent early-stage HCC remains lacking. This study aimed to elucidate therapeutic efficacy differences between SR and RFA for initial recurrent early-stage HCC. Materials/Methods: From 2000 to 2021, 371 patients with recurrent early-stage HCC (≤3 cm, ≤3 nodules) after undergoing initial curative treatment with SR or RFA were enrolled (median age 72 years; males 269; Child−Pugh A:B, n = 328:43; SR:RFA, n = 36:335). Recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) were retrospectively evaluated. Results: Although the median albumin−bilirubin (ALBI) score was better in the SR than the RFA group (−2.90 vs. −2.50, p < 0.01), there were no significant differences between them in regard to RFS (median 28.1 months, 95% CI 23.4−50.0 vs. 22.1 months, 95% CI 19.3−26.2; p = 0.34), OS (78.9 months, 95% CI 49.3—not applicable vs. 71.2 months 95% CI, 61.8−84.7; p = 0.337), or complications (8.3% vs. 9.3%; p = 1.0). In sub-analysis for RFS and OS according to ALBI grade revealed no significant differences between the SR and RFA groups (ALBI 1/2 = 28.2/17.5 vs. 24.0/23.4 months; p = 0.881/0684 and ALBI 1/2 = 78.9/58.9 vs. 115.3/52.6 months, p = 0.651/0.578, respectively). Conclusion: This retrospective study found no significant differences in regard to RFS or OS between patients in the SR and the RFA groups for initial recurrence of early-stage HCC after undergoing curative treatment. These results showing equal therapeutic efficacy of SR and RFA confirm the findings of the SURF trial.

Prevalence of fatty liver and advanced fibrosis by ultrasonography and FibroScan in a general population random sample

AIM

Fatty liver is the most common liver disease. This study examined fatty liver and advanced fibrosis prevalence in a random sample of the Japanese general population.

METHODS

A total of 6000 people randomly selected from two cities in Hiroshima Prefecture were invited to participate in this cross-sectional study originally carried out for hepatitis virus screening. Ultrasonography and FibroScan (controlled attenuation parameter [CAP] and liver stiffness measurement [LSM]) were provided as additional tests.

RESULTS

Of 6000 invited individuals, 1043 participated in hepatitis virus screening, of which 488 randomly selected individuals (median age, 56 years; interquartile range, 45-68 years; male participants, 49.8%) underwent ultrasonography, CAP, and LSM. Ultrasonography showed fatty liver in 24.6% and mild fatty liver in 32.8%. Controlled attenuation parameter showed severe steatosis in 27.5%, moderate steatosis in 12.5%, and mild steatosis in 11.1%. Overall, 62.1% were diagnosed with fatty liver based on ultrasonography or CAP. Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) prevalence was 50.6%. Liver stiffness measurement found cirrhosis in 1.0% and severe fibrosis in 1.8%. Multivariate analysis of risk factors associated with ≥F2 or higher liver fibrosis showed that age ≥60 years and above (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 3.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.5-6.9; p = 0.0031), hepatitis C virus antibody positivity (AOR, 8.4; 95% CI, 1.0-68.4; p = 0.0467), and fatty liver (AOR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.1-6.2; p = 0.0317) are independent risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

In the general population, 62.1% had fatty liver, and NAFLD prevalence was twice as high as previously reported. Screening that is noninvasive, low-cost, and does not require special techniques or equipment is needed to detect advanced liver fibrosis.

The Age, Gamma-Glutamyl Transpeptidase and Platelet Index: A Novel Noninvasive Model for Predicting Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Hepatitis B Virus-Related Liver Cirrhosis

Background and Aims

High incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) exists in patients with liver cirrhosis (LC), but the predictive accuracy of noninvasive scoring systems (NSSs) is yet to be elucidated. The present study aimed to evaluate the predictive ability of fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase to platelet ratio (GPR) in patients with LC, and to establish a new model with more accuracy.

Methods

Data from 94 patients with compensated LC and 134 patients with decompensated cirrhosis (DC) were collected. The prediction accuracy of NSSs, including APRI, GPR, and FIB-4, was compared.

Results

During a median follow-up of 37.5 months, 9 patients in the compensated LC group and 38 in the DC group developed HCC. For 228 patients, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of APRI, GPR, and FIB-4 was 0.596, 0.625, and 0.654, respectively. Multivariable logistic analysis showed that age, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT), and platelet (PLT) were independent risk factors for HCC development, and a new model encompassing age, GGT, and PLT was superior to NSSs (all P<0.05). With an optimal cutoff value of 0.216, Model (Age_GGT_PLT) achieved 68.09% sensitivity and 69.61% specificity.

Conclusion

NSSs, including APRI, GPR, and FIB-4, has a non-optimal accuracy in predicting HCC development in patients with HBV-related LC. Thus, the new model consisting of age, GGT, and PLT may be more accurate than NSSs.

Validation of magnetic resonance elastography plus fibrosis-4 for significant fibrosis in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

BACKGROUND AND AIM

MEFIB (the combination of magnetic resonance elastography [MRE] ≥ 3.3 kPa and fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) ≥ 1.6) is useful for detecting patients with significant fibrosis (fibrosis stage ≥ 2) having nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). However, age-dependent thresholds of FIB-4 have been proposed, and it remains unclear whether MEFIB could be applied with the same FIB-4 threshold in a different cohort. Therefore, in this study, we examined the best threshold of FIB-4 and validated the utility of MEFIB.

METHODS

This study included 105 biopsy-proven NAFLD patients with contemporaneous MRE assessment. The primary outcome was a diagnostic accuracy for significant fibrosis.

RESULTS

The median (interquartile range) age was 65 (58-72) years, and significant fibrosis was 76.2% (80/105). FIB-4 of 2.1 was defined as the best threshold for significant fibrosis in the cohort. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curves (AUROCs) of the combination of MRE and FIB-4 (MRE ≥ 3.3 kPa + FIB-4 ≥ 1.6: 0.80, MRE ≥ 3.3 kPa + FIB-4 ≥ 2.1: 0.84) were higher than those of each index alone (MRE ≥ 3.3 kPa: 0.76, FIB-4 ≥ 1.6: 0.72, and FIB-4 ≥ 2.1: 0.77), but AUROCs of MRE ≥ 3.3 kPa + FIB-4 ≥ 1.6 and MRE ≥ 3.3 kPa + FIB-4 ≥ 2.1 were equivalent (P = 0.3).

CONCLUSIONS

MEFIB is useful for detecting patients with significant fibrosis and could be utilized in a different cohort without changing the threshold of FIB-4, and it may then be used as a two-step screening strategy.

Impact of antiviral therapy for disease progression and non-invasive liver fibrosis index in patients with chronic hepatitis C: Markov chain model analysis

BACKGROUND/AIM

Antiviral therapy advancements resulted in an era in which eradication of hepatitis C has become a goal, however, there are few reports on the long-term course of liver disease progression with antiviral therapy. The aim of this study was to use the Markov model to analyze disease progression and non-invasive liver fibrosis index in hepatitis C Patients.

METHODS

Patients with chronic hepatitis C (n = 1432) were diagnosed between January 2012 and May 2021 in the Musashino Red Cross Hospital. Patients with other hepatitis virus co-infection, chronic liver disease, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) at the beginning of the study were excluded. A total of 618 patients with a 1-year or longer observation period were studied. The liver disease state was defined as chronic hepatitis (CH), compensated liver cirrhosis (CLC), decompensated liver cirrhosis (DLC), and HCC.

RESULTS

Cirrhosis and high FIB-4 index (≥3.61) were 42 cases (6.8%) and 208 cases (33.6%), respectively at the start of the study. The 40 years estimated transition analysis of 40-year-old CH low FIB-4 level (<3.61) revealed that the proportion of CH low/high, CLC low/high, DLC low/high, and HCC were 10.83%/10.86%, 0.35%/2.64%, 0%/3.21% 72.11% in untreated unit and 47.83%/9.21%, 6.69%/1.32%, 0.70%/0.99%, 33.27% in treated unit, respectively. Antiviral therapy suppressed liver fibrosis, disease progression, and HCC development significantly.

CONCLUSION

Markov model analysis of hepatitis C virus patients showed the impact of antiviral therapy on the suppression of disease progression in the order of CH, CLC, and DLC.

Characteristics of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with hepatitis C virus who received direct‐acting antiviral therapy and achieved sustained virological response: The impact of a hepatologist on surveillance

Background and Aim

The relationship between the characteristics of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) diagnosed after sustained virological response (SVR) with direct‐acting antiviral (DAA) therapy and surveillance status has not been sufficiently investigated. This study investigated the clinical risk factors for HCC development and HCC characteristics according to which type of physician performed follow‐up after SVR.

Methods

A total of 1070 patients in whom hepatitis C virus (HCV) was eradicated with DAA therapy were evaluated.

Results

There were 458 patients followed by hepatologists (specialist group) and 612 followed by non‐hepatologists (non‐specialist group) after SVR. During the follow‐up period, 54 patients developed HCC. The 1‐, 2‐, 3‐, 4‐, and 5‐year cumulative incidence rates of HCC were 1.8, 4.1, 6.9, 10.5, and 17.2%, respectively. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis showed that male sex (hazard ratio [HR], 3.139; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.732–5.690), α‐fetoprotein level (HR, 1.056; 95% CI, 1.035–1.077), and fibrosis‐4 (FIB‐4) index (HR, 1.051; 95% CI, 1.017–1.085) were significantly associated with HCC development, while the follow‐up physician type after SVR was not. There were 25 patients with stage I HCC, 17 with stage II, 9 with stage III, and 3 with stage IV. Multivariate ordinal logistic regression showed that follow‐up physician type (non‐specialist) (HR, 39.100; 95% CI, 9.350–224.00) was independently associated with HCC stage, while α‐fetoprotein level and FIB‐4 index were not.

Conclusion

When patients have more risk factors for HCC development after SVR (i.e., male sex, elevated α‐fetoprotein, or elevated FIB‐4 index), they should be followed by a hepatologist for HCC surveillance.

Noninvasive assessment of liver fibrosis and its clinical significance in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

Liver fibrosis is the most important prognostic factor in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Several noninvasive markers for fibrosis, including blood-based markers and imaging based-markers have been developed. Indirect fibrosis markers (e.g., fibrosis-4 index and NAFLD fibrosis score) consist of standard laboratory data and clinical parameters. Given its availability and high negative predictive value for advanced fibrosis, these markers are suitable for screening at primary care. Blood-based fibrogenesis markers (enhanced liver fibrosis and N-terminal propeptide of type 3 collagen), ultrasound-based modalities (vibration-controlled transient elastography, point shear wave elastography [SWE], and two-dimensional SWE), and magnetic resonance elastography have high diagnostic accuracy for liver fibrosis and are suitable for diagnosing liver fibrosis at secondary care centers. Sequential use of these markers can increase diagnostic accuracy and reduce health care costs. Furthermore, combining noninvasive makers may assist in identifying candidates for pharmacological trials and reducing screening failure. Emerging data suggest that these noninvasive markers are associated with liver-related events (hepatocellular carcinoma and decompensation) and mortality. Furthermore, delta change in noninvasive markers over time is also associated with time-course change in fibrosis, liver-related event risk, and mortality risk. However, the association between liver fibrosis and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is still controversial. CVD risk may decrease in patients with decompensated liver disease and noninvasive markers may be useful for assessing CVD risk in these patients. Therefore, noninvasive markers may be utilized as measures of fibrosis as well as real-time prognostic tools, in place of liver biopsy.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Assessment for Patients With Advanced Fibrosis After Eradication of Hepatitis C Virus

The identification of patients with advanced fibrosis who do not need any further hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance after the eradication of hepatitis C is pivotal. In this study, we developed a simple serum-based risk model that could identify patients with low-risk HCC. This was a nationwide multicenter study involving 16 Hospitals in Japan. Patients with advanced fibrosis (1,325 in a derivation cohort and 508 in a validation cohort) who achieved sustained virological responses at 24 weeks after treatment (SVR24) were enrolled. The HCC risk model at any point after SVR24 and its change were evaluated, and subsequent HCC development was analyzed. Based on the multivariable analysis, patients fulfilling all of the factors (GAF4 criteria: gamma-glutamyl transferase < 28 IU/L, alpha-fetoprotein < 4.0 ng/mL, and Fibrosis-4 Index < 4.28) were classified as low-risk and others were classified as high-risk. When patients were stratified at the SVR24, and 1 year, and 2 years after SVR24, subsequent HCC development was significantly lower in low-risk patients (0.5-1.1 per 100 person-years in the derivation cohort and 0.9-1.1 per 100 person-years in the validation cohort) than in high-risk patients at each point. HCC risk from 1 year after SVR24 decreased in patients whose risk improved from high-risk to low-risk (HCC incidence: 0.6 per 100 person-years [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.163 in the derivation cohort] and 1.3 per 100 person-years [HR = 0.239 in the validation cohort]) than in those with sustained high risk. Conclusion: The HCC risk model based on simple serum markers at any point after SVR and its change can identify patients with advanced fibrosis who are at low HCC risk, and these patients may be able to reduce HCC surveillance.

Prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma using age and liver stiffness on transient elastography after hepatitis C virus eradication

Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) is a useful tool for assessing advanced liver fibrosis, an important risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) following hepatitis C (HCV) eradication. This study aimed to clarify the non-invasive factors associated with HCC following sustained virological response (SVR) and to identify the low-risk group. 567 patients without history of HCC who achieved SVR at 24 weeks (SVR24) after IFN-free treatment were retrospectively analyzed. The cumulative incidence of HCC and the risk factors were examined using pre-treatment and SVR24 data. The median observation period was 50.2 months. Thirty cases of HCC were observed, and the 4-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 5.9%. In multivariate analysis, significant pre-treatment factors were age ≥ 71 years (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.402) and LSM ≥ 9.2 kPa (HR: 6.328); SVR24 factors were age ≥ 71 years (HR: 2.689) and LSM ≥ 8.4 kPa (HR: 6.642). In cases with age < 71 years and LSM < 8.4 kPa at the time of SVR24, the 4-year cumulative incidence of HCC was as low as 1.1%. Both pre-treatment LSM (≥ 9.2 kPa) and SVR24 LSM (≥ 8.4 kPa) and age (≥ 71 years) are useful in predicting the risk of HCC after SVR with IFN-free treatment. Identification of low-risk individuals may improve the efficiency of follow-up.

Should we continue surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma and gastroesophageal varices in patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV infection?

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and variceal bleeding are among the most common causes of liver-related mortality in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-induced cirrhosis. Current guidelines recommend HCC and gastroesophageal varices (GEV) surveillance in patients with HCV infection and cirrhosis. However, since the recent introduction of direct-acting antivirals, most patients with cirrhosis are now cured of their chronic HCV infection. As virological cure is considered to substantially reduce the risk of cirrhosis-related complications, this review discusses the current literature concerning the surveillance of HCC and GEV in patients with HCV-induced cirrhosis with a focus on the setting following sustained virological response.

Attenuation coefficient (ATT) measurement for liver fat quantification in chronic liver disease

Liver fat is one of the main clinical features in chronic liver disease, and the number of fatty liver patients is increasing as the prevalence of obesity and metabolic syndrome increases globally. Noninvasive and quantitative assessment of liver fat content was made possible by recent technological advances. Attenuation coefficient (ATT) measurement is a noninvasive and quantitative liver fat measurement method used in clinical practice. The ATT value is significantly associated with histological steatosis grade. The diagnostic accuracy of ATT for histological steatosis grade is equivalent to controlled attenuation parameter (CAP), and ATT has a lower measurement failure rate than CAP because ATT can be measured on a B-mode image with the exact location of the region of interest. Furthermore, ATT measurement has high interobserver reproducibility. Since ATT measurement and other ultrasound-based modalities for liver fat quantification are easy to perform and inexpensive, these modalities are suitable for point-of-care and screening. Although emerging data suggest that quantitative liver fat content and its changes over time may be associated with disease progression in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, the association between ATT and disease progression has not been evaluated yet. Therefore, further investigation and validation studies are necessary to strengthen the clinical significance of ATT measurement in chronic liver disease.