Effectiveness of Influenza Vaccines in the HIVE household cohort over 8 years: is there evidence of indirect protection?

Influenza virus shedding and symptoms: Dynamics and implications from a multiseason household transmission study

Isolation of symptomatic infectious persons can reduce influenza transmission. However, virus shedding that occurs without symptoms will be unaffected by such measures. Identifying effective isolation strategies for influenza requires understanding the interplay between individual virus shedding and symptom presentation. From 2017 to 2020, we conducted a case-ascertained household transmission study using influenza real-time RT-qPCR testing of nasal swabs and daily symptom diary reporting for up to 7 days after enrolment (≤14 days after index onset). We assumed real-time RT-qPCR cycle threshold (Ct) values were indicators of quantitative virus shedding and used symptom diaries to create a score that tracked influenza-like illness (ILI) symptoms (fever, cough, or sore throat). We fit phenomenological nonlinear mixed-effects models stratified by age and vaccination status and estimated two quantities influencing isolation effectiveness: shedding before symptom onset and shedding that might occur once isolation ends. We considered different isolation end points (including 24 h after fever resolution or 5 days after symptom onset) and assumptions about the infectiousness of Ct shedding trajectories. Of the 116 household contacts with ≥2 positive tests for longitudinal analyses, 105 (91%) experienced ≥1 ILI symptom. On average, children <5 years experienced greater peak shedding, longer durations of shedding, and elevated ILI symptom scores compared with other age groups. Most individuals (63/105) shed <10% of their total shed virus before symptom onset, and shedding after isolation varied substantially across individuals, isolation end points, and infectiousness assumptions. Our results can inform strategies to reduce transmission from symptomatic individuals infected with influenza.

Evaluating Potential Impacts of a Preferential Vaccine Recommendation for Adults 65 Years of Age and Older on US Influenza Burden

BACKGROUND

High-dose, adjuvanted, and recombinant influenza vaccines may offer improved effectiveness among older adults compared with standard-dose, unadjuvanted, inactivated vaccines. However, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) only recently recommended preferential use of these "higher-dose or adjuvanted" vaccines. One concern was that individuals might delay or decline vaccination if a preferred vaccine is not readily available.

METHODS

We mathematically model how a recommendation for preferential use of higher-dose or adjuvanted vaccines in adults ≥65 years might impact influenza burden in the United States during exemplar "high-" and "low-"severity seasons. We assume higher-dose or adjuvanted vaccines are more effective than standard vaccines and that such a recommendation would increase uptake of the former but could cause (i) delays in administration of additional higher-dose or adjuvanted vaccines relative to standard vaccines and/or (ii) reductions in overall coverage if individuals only offered standard vaccines forego vaccination.

RESULTS

In a best-case scenario, assuming no delay or coverage reduction, a new recommendation could decrease hospitalizations and deaths in adults ≥65 years by 0%-4% compared with current uptake. However, intermediate and worst-case scenarios, with assumed delays of 3 or 6 weeks and/or 10% or 20% reductions in coverage, included projections in which hospitalizations and deaths increased by over 7%.

CONCLUSIONS

We estimate that increased use of higher-dose or adjuvanted vaccines could decrease influenza burden in adults ≥65 in the United States provided there is timely and adequate access to these vaccines, and that standard vaccines are administered when they are unavailable.

Respiratory virus circulation during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Household Influenza Vaccine Evaluation (HIVE) cohort

Background

The annual reappearance of respiratory viruses has been recognized for decades. COVID-19 mitigation measures taken during the pandemic were targeted at respiratory transmission and broadly impacted the burden of acute respiratory illnesses (ARIs).

Methods

We used the longitudinal Household Influenza Vaccine Evaluation (HIVE) cohort in southeast Michigan to characterize the circulation of respiratory viruses from March 1, 2020, to June 30, 2021, using RT-PCR of respiratory specimens collected at illness onset. Participants were surveyed twice during the study period, and SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were measured in serum by electrochemiluminescence immunoassay. Incidence rates of ARI reports and virus detections were compared between the study period and a preceding pre-pandemic period of similar duration.

Results

Overall, 437 participants reported a total of 772 ARIs; 42.6% had respiratory viruses detected. Rhinoviruses were the most frequent virus, but seasonal coronaviruses, excluding SARS-CoV-2, were also common. Illness reports and percent positivity were lowest from May to August 2020, when mitigation measures were most stringent. Seropositivity for SARS-CoV-2 was 5.3% in summer 2020 and increased to 11.3% in spring 2021. The incidence rate of total reported ARIs for the study period was 50% lower (95% CI: 0.5, 0.6; p < 0.001) than the incidence rate from a pre-pandemic comparison period (March 1, 2016, to June 30, 2017).

Conclusions

The burden of ARI in the HIVE cohort during the COVID-19 pandemic fluctuated, with declines occurring concurrently with the widespread use of public health measures. Rhinovirus and seasonal coronaviruses continued to circulate even when influenza and SARS-CoV-2 circulation was low.

The Nicaraguan Pediatric Influenza Cohort Study, 2011-2019: Influenza Incidence, Seasonality, and Transmission

BACKGROUND

Children account for a large portion of global influenza burden and transmission, and a better understanding of influenza in children is needed to improve prevention and control strategies.

METHODS

To examine the incidence and transmission of influenza we conducted a prospective community-based study of children aged 0-14 years in Managua, Nicaragua, between 2011 and 2019. Participants were provided with medical care through study physicians and symptomatic influenza was confirmed by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Wavelet analyses were used to examine seasonality. Generalized growth models (GGMs) were used to estimate effective reproduction numbers.

RESULTS

From 2011 to 2019, 3016 children participated, with an average of ∼1800 participants per year and median follow-up time of 5 years per child, and 48.3% of the cohort in 2019 had been enrolled their entire lives. The overall incidence rates per 100 person-years were 14.5 symptomatic influenza cases (95% confidence interval [CI]: 13.9-15.1) and 1.0 influenza-associated acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) case (95% CI: .8-1.1). Symptomatic influenza incidence peaked at age 9-11 months. Infants born during peak influenza circulation had lower incidence in the first year of their lives. The mean effective reproduction number was 1.2 (range 1.02-1.49), and we observed significant annual patterns for influenza and influenza A, and a 2.5-year period for influenza B.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides important information for understanding influenza epidemiology and informing influenza vaccine policy. These results will aid in informing strategies to reduce the burden of influenza.

mRNA vaccines: The future of prevention of viral infections?

Messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines against COVID-19 are the first authorized biological preparations developed using this platform. During the pandemic, their administration has been proven to be a life-saving intervention. Here, we review the main advantages of using mRNA vaccines, identify further technological challenges to be met during the development of the mRNA platform, and provide an update on the clinical progress on leading mRNA vaccine candidates against different viruses that include influenza viruses, human immunodeficiency virus 1, respiratory syncytial virus, Nipah virus, Zika virus, human cytomegalovirus, and Epstein-Barr virus. The prospects and challenges of manufacturing mRNA vaccines in low-income countries are also discussed. The ongoing interest and research in mRNA technology are likely to overcome some existing challenges for this technology (e.g., related to storage conditions and immunogenicity of some components of lipid nanoparticles) and enhance the portfolio of vaccines against diseases for which classical formulations are already authorized. It may also open novel pathways of protection against infections and their consequences for which no safe and efficient immunization methods are currently available.

Respiratory Virus Circulation during the First Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the Household Influenza Vaccine Evaluation (HIVE) Cohort

Background

The annual reappearance of respiratory viruses has been recognized for decades. The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic altered typical respiratory virus transmission patterns. COVID-19 mitigation measures taken during the pandemic were targeted at SARS-CoV-2 respiratory transmission and thus broadly impacted the burden of acute respiratory illnesses (ARIs), in general.

Methods

We used the longitudinal Household Influenza Vaccine Evaluation (HIVE) cohort of households in southeast Michigan to characterize mitigation strategy adherence, respiratory illness burden, and the circulation of 15 respiratory viruses during the COVID-19 pandemic determined by RT-PCR of respiratory specimens collected at illness onset. Study participants were surveyed twice during the study period (March 1, 2020, to June 30, 2021), and serologic specimens were collected for antibody measurement by electrochemiluminescence immunoassay. Incidence rates of ARI reports and virus detections were calculated and compared using incidence rate ratios for the study period and a pre-pandemic period of similar length.

Results

Overall, 437 participants reported a total of 772 ARIs and 329 specimens (42.6%) had respiratory viruses detected. Rhinoviruses were the most frequently detected organism, but seasonal coronaviruses-excluding SARS-CoV-2-were also common. Illness reports and percent positivity were lowest from May to August 2020, when mitigation measures were most stringent. Study participants were more adherent to mitigation measures in the first survey compared with the second survey. Supplemental serology surveillance identified 5.3% seropositivity for SARS-CoV-2 in summer 2020; 3.0% between fall 2020 and winter 2021; and 11.3% in spring 2021. Compared to a pre-pandemic period of similar length, the incidence rate of total reported ARIs for the study period was 50% lower (95% CI: 0.5, 0.6; p<0.001) than the incidence rate from March 1, 2016, to June 30, 2017.

Conclusions

The burden of ARI in the HIVE cohort during the COVID-19 pandemic fluctuated, with declines occurring concurrently with the widespread use of public health measures. It is notable, however, that rhinovirus and seasonal coronaviruses continued to circulate even as influenza and SARS-CoV-2 circulation was low.

Influenza

Annual seasonal influenza epidemics of variable severity caused by influenza A and B virus infections result in substantial disease burden worldwide. Seasonal influenza virus circulation declined markedly in 2020-21 after SARS-CoV-2 emerged but increased in 2021-22. Most people with influenza have abrupt onset of respiratory symptoms and myalgia with or without fever and recover within 1 week, but some can experience severe or fatal complications. Prevention is primarily by annual influenza vaccination, with efforts underway to develop new vaccines with improved effectiveness. Sporadic zoonotic infections with novel influenza A viruses of avian or swine origin continue to pose pandemic threats. In this Seminar, we discuss updates of key influenza issues for clinicians, in particular epidemiology, virology, and pathogenesis, diagnostic testing including multiplex assays that detect influenza viruses and SARS-CoV-2, complications, antiviral treatment, influenza vaccines, infection prevention, and non-pharmaceutical interventions, and highlight gaps in clinical management and priorities for clinical research.