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Van Singer M, Brahier T, Koch J, Hugli PO, Weckman AM, Zhong K, Kain TJ, Leligdowicz A, Bernasconi E, Ceschi A, Parolari S, Vuichard-Gysin D, Kain KC, Albrich WC, Boillat-Blanco N. Validation of sTREM-1 and IL-6 based algorithms for outcome prediction of COVID-19. BMC Infect Dis 2023; 23:630. [PMID: 37752433 PMCID: PMC10523774 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-023-08630-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2023] [Accepted: 09/19/2023] [Indexed: 09/28/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND A prospective observational cohort study of COVID-19 patients in a single Emergency Department (ED) showed that sTREM-1- and IL-6-based algorithms were highly predictive of adverse outcome (Van Singer et al. J Allergy Clin Immunol 2021). We aim to validate the performance of these algorithms at ED presentation. METHODS This multicentric prospective observational study of PCR-confirmed COVID-19 adult patients was conducted in the ED of three Swiss hospitals. Data of the three centers were retrospectively completed and merged. We determined the predictive accuracy of the sTREM-1-based algorithm for 30-day intubation/mortality. We also determined the performance of the IL-6-based algorithm using data from one center for 30-day oxygen requirement. RESULTS 373 patients were included in the validation cohort, 139 (37%) in Lausanne, 93 (25%) in St.Gallen and 141 (38%) in EOC. Overall, 18% (93/373) patients died or were intubated by day 30. In Lausanne, 66% (92/139) patients required oxygen by day 30. The predictive accuracy of sTREM-1 and IL-6 were similar compared to the derivation cohort. The sTREM-1-based algorithm confirmed excellent sensitivity (90% versus 100% in the derivation cohort) and negative predictive value (94% versus 100%) for 30-day intubation/mortality. The IL-6-based algorithm performance was acceptable with a sensitivity of 85% versus 98% in the derivation cohort and a negative predictive value of 60% versus 92%. CONCLUSION The sTREM-1 algorithm demonstrated good reproducibility. A prospective randomized controlled trial, comparing outcomes with and without the algorithm, is necessary to assess its safety and impact on hospital and ICU admission rates. The IL-6 algorithm showed acceptable validity in a single center and need additional validation before widespread implementation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mathias Van Singer
- Infectious Diseases Service, University Hospital of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.
| | - Thomas Brahier
- Infectious Diseases Service, University Hospital of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Jana Koch
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Hospital Epidemiology, Cantonal Hospital St.Gallen, St.Gallen, Switzerland
| | - Pr Olivier Hugli
- Emergency Department, University Hospital of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Andrea M Weckman
- Tropical Disease Unit, Department of Medicine, Sandra Rotman Centre for Global Health, University of Toronto, University Health Network-Toronto General, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Kathleen Zhong
- Tropical Disease Unit, Department of Medicine, Sandra Rotman Centre for Global Health, University of Toronto, University Health Network-Toronto General, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Taylor J Kain
- Tropical Disease Unit, Department of Medicine, Sandra Rotman Centre for Global Health, University of Toronto, University Health Network-Toronto General, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | | | - Enos Bernasconi
- Division of infectious diseases, Ente Ospedaliero Cantonale, University of Geneva and University of Southern Switzerland, Lugano, Lugano, Switzerland
| | - Alessandro Ceschi
- Division of infectious diseases, Ente Ospedaliero Cantonale, University of Geneva and University of Southern Switzerland, Lugano, Lugano, Switzerland
- Ente Ospedaliero Cantonale (EOC), University Hospital Zurich and University of Southern Switzerland, Lugano, Switzerland
| | - Sara Parolari
- Department of Infectious Diseases and Hospital Epidemiology, Cantonal Hospital Muensterlingen, Thurgau Hospital Group, Muensterlingen, Switzerland
| | - Danielle Vuichard-Gysin
- Department of Infectious Diseases and Hospital Epidemiology, Cantonal Hospital Muensterlingen, Thurgau Hospital Group, Muensterlingen, Switzerland
| | - Kevin C Kain
- Tropical Disease Unit, Department of Medicine, Sandra Rotman Centre for Global Health, University of Toronto, University Health Network-Toronto General, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Werner C Albrich
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Hospital Epidemiology, Cantonal Hospital St.Gallen, St.Gallen, Switzerland
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Chalkias A, Skoulakis A, Papagiannakis N, Laou E, Tourlakopoulos K, Pagonis A, Michou A, Ntalarizou N, Mermiri M, Ragias D, Bernal-Morell E, Cebreiros López I, García de Guadiana-Romualdo L, Eugen-Olsen J, Gourgoulianis K, Pantazopoulos I. Circulating suPAR associates with severity and in-hospital progression of COVID-19. Eur J Clin Invest 2022; 52:e13794. [PMID: 35435245 PMCID: PMC9111634 DOI: 10.1111/eci.13794] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/18/2022] [Revised: 04/03/2022] [Accepted: 04/15/2022] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND COVID-19 disease progression is characterized by hyperinflammation and risk stratification may aid in early aggressive treatment and advanced planning. The aim of this study was to assess whether suPAR and other markers measured at hospital admission can predict the severity of COVID-19. METHODS The primary outcome measure in this international, multi-centre, prospective, observational study with adult patients hospitalized primarily for COVID-19 was the association of WHO Clinical Progression Scale (WHO-CPS) with suPAR, ferritin, CRP, albumin, LDH, eGFR, age, procalcitonin, and interleukin-6. Admission plasma suPAR levels were determined using the suPARnostic® ELISA and suPARnostic® Turbilatex assays. RESULTS Seven hundred and sixty-seven patients, 440 (57.4%) males and 327 (42.6%) females, were included with a median age of 64 years. Log-suPAR levels significantly correlated with WHO-CPS score, with each doubling of suPAR increasing the score by one point (p < .001). All the other markers were also correlated with WHO-CPS score. Admission suPAR levels were significantly lower in survivors (7.10 vs. 9.63, 95% CI 1.47-3.59, p < .001). A linear model (SALGA) including suPAR, serum albumin, serum lactate dehydrogenase, eGFR, and age can best estimate the WHO-CPS score and survival. Combining all five parameters in the SALGA model can improve the accuracy of discrimination with an AUC of 0.80 (95% CI: 0.759-0.836). CONCLUSIONS suPAR levels significantly correlated with WHO-CPS score, with each doubling of suPAR increasing the score by one point. The SALGA model may serve as a quick tool for predicting disease severity and survival at admission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Athanasios Chalkias
- Department of Anesthesiology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Thessaly, Larisa, Greece.,Outcomes Research Consortium, Cleveland, Ohio, USA
| | - Anargyros Skoulakis
- Department of Anesthesiology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Thessaly, Larisa, Greece
| | - Nikolaos Papagiannakis
- First Department of Neurology, Medical School, Aiginition University Hospital, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece
| | - Eleni Laou
- Department of Anesthesiology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Thessaly, Larisa, Greece
| | | | - Athanasios Pagonis
- Department of Respiratory Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Thessaly, Larisa, Greece
| | - Anastasia Michou
- Department of Anesthesiology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Thessaly, Larisa, Greece
| | - Nicoletta Ntalarizou
- Department of Anesthesiology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Thessaly, Larisa, Greece
| | - Maria Mermiri
- Department of Anesthesiology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Thessaly, Larisa, Greece
| | - Dimitrios Ragias
- Department of Anesthesiology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Thessaly, Larisa, Greece
| | - Enrique Bernal-Morell
- Infectious Diseases Unit, Department of Internal Medicine, Hospital General Universitario Reina Sofía, Murcia, Spain
| | - Iria Cebreiros López
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, Hospital Universitario Virgen de la Arrixaca, Murcia, Spain
| | | | - Jesper Eugen-Olsen
- Department of Clinical Research, Copenhagen University Hospital Hvidovre, Hvidovre, Denmark
| | | | - Ioannis Pantazopoulos
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Thessaly, Larisa, Greece
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