Balancing immunological benefits and cardiovascular risks of antiretroviral therapy: when is immediate treatment optimal?

Quantile Markov Decision Processes

The goal of a traditional Markov decision process (MDP) is to maximize expected cumulative reward over a defined horizon (possibly infinite). In many applications, however, a decision maker may be interested in optimizing a specific quantile of the cumulative reward instead of its expectation. In this paper we consider the problem of optimizing the quantiles of the cumulative rewards of a Markov decision process (MDP), which we refer to as a quantile Markov decision process (QMDP). We provide analytical results characterizing the optimal QMDP value function and present a dynamic programming-based algorithm to solve for the optimal policy. The algorithm also extends to the MDP problem with a conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) objective. We illustrate the practical relevance of our model by evaluating it on an HIV treatment initiation problem, where patients aim to balance the potential benefits and risks of the treatment.

Making Smarter Decisions Faster: Systems Engineering to Improve the Global Public Health Response to HIV

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review offers an operational definition of systems engineering (SE) as applied to public health, reviews applications of SE in the field of HIV, and identifies opportunities and challenges of broader application of SE in global health.

RECENT FINDINGS

SE involves the deliberate sequencing of three steps: diagnosing a problem, evaluating options using modeling or optimization, and providing actionable recommendations. SE includes diverse tools (from process improvement to mathematical modeling) applied to decisions at various levels (from local staffing decisions to planning national-level roll-out of new interventions). Contextual factors are crucial to effective decision-making, but there are gaps in understanding global decision-making processes. Integrating SE into pre-service training and translating SE tools to be more accessible could increase utilization of SE approaches in global health. SE is a promising, but under-recognized approach to improve public health response to HIV globally.

Creating impact with operations research in health: making room for practice in academia

Operations research (OR)-based analyses have the potential to improve decision making for many important, real-world health care problems. However, junior scholars often avoid working on practical applications in health because promotion and tenure processes tend to value theoretical studies more highly than applied studies. This paper discusses the author's experiences in using OR to inform and influence decisions in health and provides a blueprint for junior researchers who wish to find success by taking a similar path. This involves selecting good problems to study, forming productive collaborations with domain experts, developing appropriate models, identifying the most salient results from an analysis, and effectively disseminating findings to decision makers. The paper then suggests how journals, funding agencies, and senior academics can encourage such work by taking a broader and more informed view of the potential role and contributions of OR to solving health care problems. Making room in academia for the application of OR in health follows in the tradition begun by the founders of operations research: to work on important real-world problems where operations research can contribute to better decision making.

Should expectations about the rate of new antiretroviral drug development impact the timing of HIV treatment initiation and expectations about treatment benefits?

Background

Many analyses of HIV treatment decisions assume a fixed formulary of HIV drugs. However, new drugs are approved nearly twice a year, and the rate of availability of new drugs may affect treatment decisions, particularly when to initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART).

Objectives

To determine the impact of considering the availability of new drugs on the optimal initiation criteria for ART and outcomes in patients with HIV/AIDS.

Methods

We enhanced a previously described simulation model of the optimal time to initiate ART to incorporate the rate of availability of new antiviral drugs. We assumed that the future rate of availability of new drugs would be similar to the past rate of availability of new drugs, and we estimated the past rate by fitting a statistical model to actual HIV drug approval data from 1982–2010. We then tested whether or not the future availability of new drugs affected the model-predicted optimal time to initiate ART based on clinical outcomes, considering treatment initiation thresholds of 200, 350, and 500 cells/mm³. We also quantified the impact of the future availability of new drugs on life expectancy (LE) and quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE).

Results

In base case analysis, considering the availability of new drugs raised the optimal starting CD4 threshold for most patients to 500 cells/mm³. The predicted gains in outcomes due to availability of pipeline drugs were generally small (less than 1%), but for young patients with a high viral load could add as much as a 4.9% (1.73 years) increase in LE and a 8% (2.43 QALY) increase in QALE, because these patients were particularly likely to exhaust currently available ART regimens before they died. In sensitivity analysis, increasing the rate of availability of new drugs did not substantially alter the results. Lowering the toxicity of future ART drugs had greater potential to increase benefit for many patient groups, increasing QALE by as much as 10%.

Conclusions

The future availability of new ART drugs without lower toxicity raises optimal treatment initiation for most patients, and improves clinical outcomes, especially for younger patients with higher viral loads. Reductions in toxicity of future ART drugs could impact optimal treatment initiation and improve clinical outcomes for all HIV patients.

Cardiovascular disease and HIV infection

The emergence of chronic disease complications in controlled HIV disease has changed the landscape of HIV clinical care. HIV infection confers an increased cardiovascular disease risk, which is thought to be due to a complex interplay of mechanistic factors. While traditional cardiovascular risk factors likely play a role, recent evidence suggests that HIV-associated inflammation and immune activation are important mediators of cardiovascular risk. It is unclear whether established preventative interventions for the general population are applicable to HIV-infected patients, and the need to translate mechanistic knowledge into HIV-specific clinical interventions represents an important priority. Developing strategies to prevent cardiovascular disease in HIV-infected individuals calls for a multidisciplinary approach and represents an opportunity to exert a major public health impact in an at-risk population.