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Hamilton KA, Ciol Harrison J, Mitchell J, Weir M, Verhougstraete M, Haas CN, Nejadhashemi AP, Libarkin J, Gim Aw T, Bibby K, Bivins A, Brown J, Dean K, Dunbar G, Eisenberg JNS, Emelko M, Gerrity D, Gurian PL, Hartnett E, Jahne M, Jones RM, Julian TR, Li H, Li Y, Gibson JM, Medema G, Meschke JS, Mraz A, Murphy H, Oryang D, Owusu-Ansah EDGJ, Pasek E, Pradhan AK, Razzolini MTP, Ryan MO, Schoen M, Smeets PWMH, Soller J, Solo-Gabriele H, Williams C, Wilson AM, Zimmer-Faust A, Alja'fari J, Rose JB. Research gaps and priorities for quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). RISK ANALYSIS : AN OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE SOCIETY FOR RISK ANALYSIS 2024. [PMID: 38772724 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14318] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/01/2023] [Revised: 03/12/2024] [Accepted: 04/28/2024] [Indexed: 05/23/2024]
Abstract
The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic highlighted the need for more rapid and routine application of modeling approaches such as quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) for protecting public health. QMRA is a transdisciplinary science dedicated to understanding, predicting, and mitigating infectious disease risks. To better equip QMRA researchers to inform policy and public health management, an Advances in Research for QMRA workshop was held to synthesize a path forward for QMRA research. We summarize insights from 41 QMRA researchers and experts to clarify the role of QMRA in risk analysis by (1) identifying key research needs, (2) highlighting emerging applications of QMRA; and (3) describing data needs and key scientific efforts to improve the science of QMRA. Key identified research priorities included using molecular tools in QMRA, advancing dose-response methodology, addressing needed exposure assessments, harmonizing environmental monitoring for QMRA, unifying a divide between disease transmission and QMRA models, calibrating and/or validating QMRA models, modeling co-exposures and mixtures, and standardizing practices for incorporating variability and uncertainty throughout the source-to-outcome continuum. Cross-cutting needs identified were to: develop a community of research and practice, integrate QMRA with other scientific approaches, increase QMRA translation and impacts, build communication strategies, and encourage sustainable funding mechanisms. Ultimately, a vision for advancing the science of QMRA is outlined for informing national to global health assessments, controls, and policies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kerry A Hamilton
- The Biodesign Institute Center for Environmental Health Engineering, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, USA
- School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, USA
| | - Joanna Ciol Harrison
- The Biodesign Institute Center for Environmental Health Engineering, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, USA
- School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, USA
| | - Jade Mitchell
- Department of Biosystems and Agricultural Engineering, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, USA
| | - Mark Weir
- Division of Environmental Health Sciences and Sustainability Institute, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, USA
| | - Marc Verhougstraete
- Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | - Charles N Haas
- Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - A Pouyan Nejadhashemi
- Department of Biosystems and Agricultural Engineering, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, USA
| | - Julie Libarkin
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, USA
| | - Tiong Gim Aw
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Tulane University, New Orleans, Louisiana, USA
| | - Kyle Bibby
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Earth Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, USA
| | - Aaron Bivins
- Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA
| | - Joe Brown
- Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA
| | - Kara Dean
- Department of Biosystems and Agricultural Engineering, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, USA
| | - Gwyneth Dunbar
- Department of Biosystems and Agricultural Engineering, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, USA
| | - Joseph N S Eisenberg
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
| | - Monica Emelko
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada
| | - Daniel Gerrity
- Applied Research and Development Center, Southern Nevada Water Authority, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
| | - Patrick L Gurian
- Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
| | | | - Michael Jahne
- Office of Research and Development, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Cincinnati, Ohio, USA
| | - Rachael M Jones
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Fielding School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Timothy R Julian
- Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Duebendorf, Switzerland
| | - Hongwan Li
- Department of Biosystems and Agricultural Engineering, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, USA
| | - Yanbin Li
- Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, The University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA
| | - Jacqueline MacDonald Gibson
- Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA
| | - Gertjan Medema
- KWR Water Research Institute, Nieuwegein, The Netherlands
- TU Delft, Delft, The Netherlands
| | - J Scott Meschke
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Alexis Mraz
- Department of Public Health, School of Nursing, Health and Exercise Science, The College of New Jersey, Ewing, New Jersey, USA
| | - Heather Murphy
- Ontario Veterinary College Department of Pathobiology, University of Guelph, Ontario, Canada
| | - David Oryang
- Food and Drug Administration (FDA), US Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS), Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition (CFSAN), College Park, United States
| | | | - Emily Pasek
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, USA
| | - Abani K Pradhan
- Department of Nutrition and Food Science & Center for Food Safety and Security Systems, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA
| | | | - Michael O Ryan
- Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - Mary Schoen
- Soller Environmental, Berkeley, California, USA
| | - Patrick W M H Smeets
- KWR Water Research Institute, Nieuwegein, The Netherlands
- TU Delft, Delft, The Netherlands
| | | | - Helena Solo-Gabriele
- Department of Chemical, Environmental, and Materials Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida, USA
| | - Clinton Williams
- US Arid Land Agricultural Research Center, Maricopa, Arizona, USA
| | - Amanda M Wilson
- Community, Environment & Policy Department, Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | | | - Jumana Alja'fari
- National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), Gaithersburg, Maryland, USA
| | - Joan B Rose
- Department of Biosystems and Agricultural Engineering, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, USA
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Mac S, Mishra S, Ximenes R, Barrett K, Khan YA, Naimark DMJ, Sander B. Modeling the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic: A comprehensive guide of infectious disease and decision-analytic models. J Clin Epidemiol 2020; 132:133-141. [PMID: 33301904 PMCID: PMC7837043 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2020.12.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2020] [Revised: 11/22/2020] [Accepted: 12/01/2020] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Stephen Mac
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada
| | - Sharmistha Mishra
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada
| | - Raphael Ximenes
- Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada; Escola de Matemática Aplicada, Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Kali Barrett
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; University Health Network, Toronto, Canada
| | - Yasin A Khan
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; University Health Network, Toronto, Canada
| | - David M J Naimark
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Toronto, Canada
| | - Beate Sander
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada; Public Health Ontario, Toronto, Canada; ICES, Toronto, Canada.
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Lutz CS, Huynh MP, Schroeder M, Anyatonwu S, Dahlgren FS, Danyluk G, Fernandez D, Greene SK, Kipshidze N, Liu L, Mgbere O, McHugh LA, Myers JF, Siniscalchi A, Sullivan AD, West N, Johansson MA, Biggerstaff M. Applying infectious disease forecasting to public health: a path forward using influenza forecasting examples. BMC Public Health 2019; 19:1659. [PMID: 31823751 PMCID: PMC6902553 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-019-7966-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 53] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2019] [Accepted: 11/19/2019] [Indexed: 01/23/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Infectious disease forecasting aims to predict characteristics of both seasonal epidemics and future pandemics. Accurate and timely infectious disease forecasts could aid public health responses by informing key preparation and mitigation efforts. MAIN BODY For forecasts to be fully integrated into public health decision-making, federal, state, and local officials must understand how forecasts were made, how to interpret forecasts, and how well the forecasts have performed in the past. Since the 2013-14 influenza season, the Influenza Division at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has hosted collaborative challenges to forecast the timing, intensity, and short-term trajectory of influenza-like illness in the United States. Additional efforts to advance forecasting science have included influenza initiatives focused on state-level and hospitalization forecasts, as well as other infectious diseases. Using CDC influenza forecasting challenges as an example, this paper provides an overview of infectious disease forecasting; applications of forecasting to public health; and current work to develop best practices for forecast methodology, applications, and communication. CONCLUSIONS These efforts, along with other infectious disease forecasting initiatives, can foster the continued advancement of forecasting science.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chelsea S Lutz
- Influenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, 30329, USA.
- Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education, United States Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, TN, 37830, USA.
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 21205, USA.
| | - Mimi P Huynh
- Infectious Disease Program, Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists, Atlanta, GA, 30345, USA
| | - Monica Schroeder
- Infectious Disease Program, Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists, Atlanta, GA, 30345, USA
| | - Sophia Anyatonwu
- PHI/CDC Global Health Fellowship Program, Public Health Institute, Oakland, CA, 94607, USA
| | - F Scott Dahlgren
- Influenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, 30329, USA
| | - Gregory Danyluk
- Florida Department of Health in Polk County, Bartow, FL, 33830, USA
| | - Danielle Fernandez
- Epidemiology, Disease Control, and Immunization Services, Florida Department of Health in Miami-Dade County, Miami, FL, 33126, USA
| | - Sharon K Greene
- Bureau of Communicable Disease, New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, Queens, New York, NY, 11101, USA
| | | | - Leann Liu
- Office of Science, Surveillance, and Technology, Harris County Public Health, Houston, TX, 77027, USA
| | - Osaro Mgbere
- Disease Prevention and Control Division, Houston Health Department, Houston, TX, 77054, USA
| | - Lisa A McHugh
- Communicable Disease Service, New Jersey Department of Health, Trenton, NJ, 08608, USA
| | - Jennifer F Myers
- Infectious Diseases Branch, California Department of Public Health, Richmond, CA, 94804, USA
| | - Alan Siniscalchi
- Infectious Disease Section, Epidemiology & Emerging Infections Program, State of Connecticut Department of Health, Hartford, CT, 06134, USA
| | - Amy D Sullivan
- Division of Prevention and Community Health, Washington State Department of Health, Olympia, WA, 98504, USA
| | - Nicole West
- Acute and Communicable Disease Prevention, Oregon Health Authority, Portland, OR, 97232, USA
| | - Michael A Johansson
- Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, PR, 00920, USA
| | - Matthew Biggerstaff
- Influenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, 30329, USA
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