Policy Lessons From Quantitative Modeling of Leprosy

A modelling analysis of a new multi-stage pathway for classifying achievement of public health milestones for leprosy

Several countries have come close to eliminating leprosy, but leprosy cases continue to be detected at low levels. Due to the long, highly variable delay from infection to detection, the relationship between observed cases and transmission is uncertain. The World Health Organization's new technical guidance provides a path for countries to reach elimination. We use a simple probabilistic model to simulate the stochastic dynamics of detected cases as transmission declines, and evaluate progress through the new public health milestones. In simulations where transmission is halted, 5 years of zero incidence in autochthonous children, combined with 3 years of zero incidence in all ages is a flawed indicator that transmission has halted (54% correctly classified). A further 10 years of only occasional sporadic cases is associated with a high probability of having interrupted transmission (99%). If, however, transmission continues at extremely low levels, it is possible that cases could be misidentified as historic cases from the tail of the incubation period distribution, although misleadingly achieving all three milestones is unlikely (less than 1% probability across a 15-year period of ongoing low-level transmission). These results demonstrate the feasibility and challenges of a phased progression of milestones towards interruption of transmission, allowing assessment of programme status. This article is part of the theme issue 'Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs'.

Suspicious symptom monitoring for leprosy: an optimal practice for early detection under a low endemic situation in Zhejiang Province, China

BACKGROUND

Leprosy is a chronic infectious disease that causes disabilities and deformities. Early detection is a major strategy for leprosy control. This study reported a new practice of suspicious symptom monitoring for early detection of leprosy.

METHODS

A descriptive and comparative analysis between a non-strategy group of pre-implementation of suspicious symptom monitoring in 2005-2011 and a strategy group of strategy implementation in 2012-2018 was conducted through indicators of the number of times of misdiagnoses, delayed period, proportion of early detected cases, and proportion of disabilities.

RESULT

Compared with the non-strategy group in 2005-2011, the median number of times of misdiagnoses was decreased from two times to zero times (z = 4.387, P < 0.001), and the median delayed period of newly detected cases were shortened from 24 months to 13 months (z = 2.381, P < 0.001), the proportion of early detected cases was increased from 43.7% to 75.2% (χ²  = 29.464, P < 0.001), the proportion of grade 2 disabilities was decreased from 28.6% in the highest year of 2005 to 4.0% in the lowest year of 2014, and the average proportion of disabilities was decreased from 33.5% to 17.6% (χ²  = 9.421, P = 0.002) in the strategy group in 2012-2018, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Suspicious symptom monitoring promoted early detection of cases by reducing the number of times misdiagnosis of leprosy patients, shortening the delayed period, increasing the proportion of early detection, and decreasing the proportion of disabilities. It is an important and recommendable public health strategy for leprosy prevention and control in a low epidemic condition.

How modelling can help steer the course set by the World Health Organization 2021-2030 roadmap on neglected tropical diseases

The World Health Organization recently launched its 2021-2030 roadmap, Ending the Neglect to Attain the Sustainable Development Goals , an updated call to arms to end the suffering caused by neglected tropical diseases. Modelling and quantitative analyses played a significant role in forming these latest goals. In this collection, we discuss the insights, the resulting recommendations and identified challenges of public health modelling for 13 of the target diseases: Chagas disease, dengue, gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), lymphatic filariasis (LF), onchocerciasis, rabies, scabies, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH), Taenia solium taeniasis/ cysticercosis, trachoma, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and yaws. This piece reflects the three cross-cutting themes identified across the collection, regarding the contribution that modelling can make to timelines, programme design, drug development and clinical trials.

How modelling can help steer the course set by the World Health Organization 2021-2030 roadmap on neglected tropical diseases

The World Health Organization recently launched its 2021-2030 roadmap, Ending the Neglect to Attain the Sustainable Development Goals , an updated call to arms to end the suffering caused by neglected tropical diseases. Modelling and quantitative analyses played a significant role in forming these latest goals. In this collection, we discuss the insights, the resulting recommendations and identified challenges of public health modelling for 13 of the target diseases: Chagas disease, dengue, gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), lymphatic filariasis (LF), onchocerciasis, rabies, scabies, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH), Taenia solium taeniasis/ cysticercosis, trachoma, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and yaws. This piece reflects the three cross-cutting themes identified across the collection, regarding the contribution that modelling can make to timelines, programme design, drug development and clinical trials.

The long-term impact of the Leprosy Post-Exposure Prophylaxis (LPEP) program on leprosy incidence: A modelling study

Background

The Leprosy Post-Exposure Prophylaxis (LPEP) program explored the feasibility and impact of contact tracing and the provision of single dose rifampicin (SDR) to eligible contacts of newly diagnosed leprosy patients in Brazil, India, Indonesia, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Tanzania. As the impact of the programme is difficult to establish in the short term, we apply mathematical modelling to predict its long-term impact on the leprosy incidence.

Methodology

The individual-based model SIMCOLEP was calibrated and validated to the historic leprosy incidence data in the study areas. For each area, we assessed two scenarios: 1) continuation of existing routine activities as in 2014; and 2) routine activities combined with LPEP starting in 2015. The number of contacts per index patient screened varied from 1 to 36 between areas. Projections were made until 2040.

Principal findings

In all areas, the LPEP program increased the number of detected cases in the first year(s) of the programme as compared to the routine programme, followed by a faster reduction afterwards with increasing benefit over time. LPEP could accelerate the reduction of the leprosy incidence by up to six years as compared to the routine programme. The impact of LPEP varied by area due to differences in the number of contacts per index patient included and differences in leprosy epidemiology and routine control programme.

Conclusions

The LPEP program contributes significantly to the reduction of the leprosy incidence and could potentially accelerate the interruption of transmission. It would be advisable to include contact tracing/screening and SDR in routine leprosy programmes.

The Leprosy Post-Exposure Prophylaxis (LPEP) program explored the feasibility and impact of contact tracing and the provision of SDR to eligible contacts of newly diagnosed leprosy patients in states or districts of Brazil, India, Indonesia, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Tanzania. This study investigated the long-term impact of the LPEP program on the leprosy new case detection rate (NCDR). Our results show that LPEP could reduce the NCDR beyond the impact of the routine leprosy control programme and that many new cases could be prevented. The benefit of LPEP increases gradually over time. LPEP could accelerate the time of reaching predicted NCDR levels of 2040 under routine program by up to six years. Furthermore, we highlighted how the impact varies between countries due to differences in the number of contacts per index patient screened and differences in leprosy epidemiology and national control programme. Generally, including both household contacts and neighbours (> 20 contacts per index patient) would yield the highest impact.

Geospatial epidemiology of leprosy in northwest Bangladesh: a 20-year retrospective observational study

Background

Leprosy is known to be unevenly distributed between and within countries. High risk areas or ‘hotspots’ are potential targets for preventive interventions, but the underlying epidemiologic mechanisms that enable hotspots to emerge, are not yet fully understood. In this study, we identified and characterized leprosy hotspots in Bangladesh, a country with one of the highest leprosy endemicity levels globally.

Methods

We used data from four high-endemic districts in northwest Bangladesh including 20 623 registered cases between January 2000 and April 2019 (among ~ 7 million population). Incidences per union (smallest administrative unit) were calculated using geospatial population density estimates. A geospatial Poisson model was used to detect incidence hotspots over three (overlapping) 10-year timeframes: 2000–2009, 2005–2014 and 2010–2019. Ordinal regression models were used to assess whether patient characteristics were significantly different for cases outside hotspots, as compared to cases within weak (i.e., relative risk (RR) of one to two), medium (i.e., RR of two to three), and strong (i.e., RR higher than three) hotspots.

Results

New case detection rates dropped from 44/100 000 in 2000 to 10/100 000 in 2019. Statistically significant hotspots were identified during all timeframes and were often located at areas with high population densities. The RR for leprosy was up to 12 times higher for inhabitants of hotspots than for people living outside hotspots. Within strong hotspots (1930 cases among less than 1% of the population), significantly more child cases (i.e., below 15 years of age) were detected, indicating recent transmission. Cases in hotspots were not significantly more likely to be detected actively.

Conclusions

Leprosy showed a heterogeneous distribution with clear hotspots in northwest Bangladesh throughout a 20-year period of decreasing incidence. Findings confirm that leprosy hotspots represent areas of higher transmission activity and are not solely the result of active case finding strategies.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40249-021-00817-4.

Number of people requiring post-exposure prophylaxis to end leprosy: A modeling study

BACKGROUND

Worldwide, around 210,000 new cases of leprosy are detected annually. To end leprosy, i.e. zero new leprosy cases, preventive interventions such as contact tracing and post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) are required. This study aims to estimate the number of people requiring PEP to reduce leprosy new case detection (NCD) at national and global level by 50% and 90%.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

The individual-based model SIMCOLEP was fitted to seven leprosy settings defined by NCD and MB proportion. Using data of all 110 countries with known leprosy patients in 2016, we assigned each country to one of these settings. We predicted the impact of administering PEP to about 25 contacts of leprosy patients on the annual NCD for 25 years and estimated the number of contacts requiring PEP per country for each year. The NCD trends show an increase in NCD in the first year (i.e. backlog cases) followed by a significant decrease thereafter. A reduction of 50% and 90% of new cases would be achieved in most countries in 5 and 22 years if 20.6 and 40.2 million people are treated with PEP over that period, respectively. For India, Brazil, and Indonesia together, a total of 32.9 million people requiring PEP to achieve a 90% reduction in 22 years.

CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE

The leprosy problem is far greater than the 210,000 new cases reported annually. Our model estimates of the number of people requiring PEP to achieve significant reduction of new leprosy cases can be used by policymakers and program managers to develop long-term strategies to end leprosy.

A comprehensive research agenda for zero leprosy

BACKGROUND

Leprosy control achieved dramatic success in the 1980s-1990s with the implementation of short course multidrug therapy, which reduced the global prevalence of leprosy to less than 1 in 10 000 population. However, a period of relative stagnation in leprosy control followed this achievement, and only limited further declines in the global number of new cases reported have been achieved over the past decade.

MAIN TEXT

In 2016, major stakeholders called for the development of an innovative and comprehensive leprosy strategy aimed at reducing the incidence of leprosy, lowering the burden of disability and discrimination, and interrupting transmission. This led to the establishment of the Global Partnership for Zero Leprosy (GPZL) in 2018, with partners aligned around a shared Action Framework committed to achieving the WHO targets by 2030 through national leprosy program capacity-building, resource mobilisation and an enabling research agenda. GPZL convened over 140 experts from more than 20 countries to develop a research agenda to achieve zero leprosy. The result is a detailed research agenda focusing on diagnostics, mapping, digital technology and innovation, disability, epidemiological modelling and investment case, implementation research, stigma, post exposure prophylaxis and transmission, and vaccines. This research agenda is aligned with the research priorities identified by other stakeholders.

CONCLUSIONS

Developing and achieving consensus on the research agenda for zero leprosy is a significant step forward for the leprosy community. In a next step, research programmes must be developed, with individual components of the research agenda requiring distinct expertise, varying in resource needs, and operating over different timescales. Moving toward zero leprosy now requires partner alignment and new investments at all stages of the research process, from discovery to implementation.

Fingerstick test quantifying humoral and cellular biomarkers indicative for M. leprae infection

OBJECTIVES

New user-friendly diagnostic tests for detection of individuals infected by Mycobacterium leprae (M. leprae), the causative pathogen of leprosy, can help guide therapeutic and prophylactic treatment, thus positively contributing to clinical outcome and reduction of transmission. To facilitate point-of-care testing without the presence of phlebotomists, the use of fingerstick blood (FSB) rather than whole blood-derived serum is preferred. This study is a first proof-of-principle validating that previously described rapid serum tests detecting antibodies and cytokines can also be used with FSB.

METHODS

Quantitative detection of previously identified biomarkers for leprosy and M. leprae infection, anti-M. leprae PGL-I IgM antibodies (αPGL-I), IP-10 and CRP, was performed with lateral flow (LF) strips utilizing luminescent up-converting reporter particles (UCP) and a portable reader generating unbiased read-outs. Precise amounts of FSB samples were collected using disposable heparinized capillaries. Biomarker levels in paired FSB and serum samples were determined using UCP-LF test strips for leprosy patients and controls in Bangladesh, Brazil, South-Africa and the Netherlands.

RESULTS

Correlations between serum and FSB from the same individuals for αPGL-I, CRP and IP-10 were highly significant (p < .0001) even after FSB samples had been frozen. The αPGL-I FSB test was able to correctly identify all multibacillary leprosy patients presenting a good quantitative correlation with the bacterial index.

CONCLUSIONS

Reader-assisted, quantitative UCP-LF tests for the detection of humoral and cellular biomarkers for M. leprae infection, are compatible with FSB. This allows near-patient testing for M. leprae infection and immunomonitoring of treatment without highly trained staff. On site availability of test-result concedes immediate initiation of appropriate counselling and treatment. Alternatively, the UCP-LF format allows frozen storage of FSB samples compatible with deferred testing in central laboratories.

Counting Down the 2020 Goals for 9 Neglected Tropical Diseases: What Have We Learned From Quantitative Analysis and Transmission Modeling?

The control of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) has received huge investment in recent years, leading to large reductions in morbidity. In 2012, the World Health Organization set ambitious targets for eliminating many of these diseases as a public health problem by 2020, an aspiration that was supported by donations of treatments, intervention materials, and funding committed by a broad partnership of stakeholders in the London Declaration on NTDs. Alongside these efforts, there has been an increasing role for quantitative analysis and modeling to support the achievement of these goals through evaluation of the likely impact of interventions, the factors that could undermine these achievements, and the role of new diagnostics and treatments in reducing transmission. In this special issue, we aim to summarize those insights in an accessible way. This article acts as an introduction to the special issue, outlining key concepts in NTDs and insights from modeling as we approach 2020.