Arrhythmogenic propensity of the fibrotic substrate after atrial fibrillation ablation: a longitudinal study using magnetic resonance imaging-based atrial models

Medical Digital Twin: A Review on Technical Principles and Clinical Applications

The usage of digital twins (DTs) is growing across a wide range of businesses. The health sector is one area where DT use has recently increased. Ultimately, the concept of digital health twins holds the potential to enhance human existence by transforming disease prevention, health preservation, diagnosis, treatment, and management. Big data's explosive expansion, combined with ongoing developments in data science (DS) and artificial intelligence (AI), might greatly speed up research and development by supplying crucial data, a strong cyber technical infrastructure, and scientific know-how. The field of healthcare applications is still in its infancy, despite the fact that there are several DT programs in the military and industry. This review's aim is to present this cutting-edge technology, which focuses on neurology, as one of the most exciting new developments in the medical industry. Through innovative research and development in DT technology, we anticipate the formation of a global cooperative effort among stakeholders to improve health care and the standard of living for millions of people globally.

Optimizing the Distribution of Ablation Lesions to Prevent Postablation Atrial Tachycardia: A Personalized Digital-Twin Study

BACKGROUND

Although targeting atrial fibrillation (AF) drivers and substrates has been used as an effective adjunctive ablation strategy for patients with persistent AF (PsAF), it can result in iatrogenic scar-related atrial tachycardia (iAT) requiring additional ablation. Personalized atrial digital twins (DTs) have been used preprocedurally to devise ablation targeting that eliminate the fibrotic substrate arrhythmogenic propensity and could potentially be used to predict and prevent postablation iAT.

OBJECTIVES

In this study, the authors sought to explore possible alternative configurations of ablation lesions that could prevent iAT occurrence with the use of biatrial DTs of prospectively enrolled PsAF patients.

METHODS

Biatrial DTs were generated from late gadolinium enhancement-magnetic resonance images of 37 consecutive PsAF patients, and the fibrotic substrate locations in the DT capable of sustaining reentries were determined. These locations were ablated in DTs by representing a single compound region of ablation with normal power (SSA), and postablation iAT occurrence was determined. At locations of iAT, ablation at the same DT target was repeated, but applying multiple lesions of reduced-strength (MRA) instead of SSA.

RESULTS

Eighty-three locations in the fibrotic substrates of 28 personalized biatrial DTs were capable of sustaining reentries and were thus targeted for SSA ablation. Of these ablations, 45 resulted in iAT. Repeating the ablation at these targets with MRA instead of SSA resulted in the prevention of iAT occurrence at 15 locations (18% reduction in the rate of iAT occurrence).

CONCLUSIONS

Personalized atrial DTs enable preprocedure prediction of iAT occurrence after ablation in the fibrotic substrate. It also suggests MRA could be a potential strategy for preventing postablation AT.

Mechanisms of stretch-induced electro-anatomical remodeling and atrial arrhythmogenesis

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac rhythm disorder, often occurring in the setting of atrial distension and elevated myocardialstretch. While various mechano-electrochemical signal transduction pathways have been linked to AF development and progression, the underlying molecular mechanisms remain poorly understood, hampering AF therapies. In this review, we describe different aspects of stretch-induced electro-anatomical remodeling as seen in animal models and in patients with AF. Specifically, we focus on cellular and molecular mechanisms that are responsible for mechano-electrochemical signal transduction and the development of ectopic beats triggering AF from pulmonary veins, the most common source of paroxysmal AF. Furthermore, we describe structural changes caused by stretch occurring before and shortly after the onset of AF as well as during AF progression, contributing to longstanding forms of AF. We also propose mechanical stretch as a new dimension to the concept "AF begets AF", in addition to underlying diseases. Finally, we discuss the mechanisms of these electro-anatomical alterations in a search for potential therapeutic strategies and the development of novel antiarrhythmic drugs targeted at the components of mechano-electrochemical signal transduction not only in cardiac myocytes, but also in cardiac non-myocyte cells.

Computational modeling of cardiac electrophysiology and arrhythmogenesis: toward clinical translation

The complexity of cardiac electrophysiology, involving dynamic changes in numerous components across multiple spatial (from ion channel to organ) and temporal (from milliseconds to days) scales, makes an intuitive or empirical analysis of cardiac arrhythmogenesis challenging. Multiscale mechanistic computational models of cardiac electrophysiology provide precise control over individual parameters, and their reproducibility enables a thorough assessment of arrhythmia mechanisms. This review provides a comprehensive analysis of models of cardiac electrophysiology and arrhythmias, from the single cell to the organ level, and how they can be leveraged to better understand rhythm disorders in cardiac disease and to improve heart patient care. Key issues related to model development based on experimental data are discussed, and major families of human cardiomyocyte models and their applications are highlighted. An overview of organ-level computational modeling of cardiac electrophysiology and its clinical applications in personalized arrhythmia risk assessment and patient-specific therapy of atrial and ventricular arrhythmias is provided. The advancements presented here highlight how patient-specific computational models of the heart reconstructed from patient data have achieved success in predicting risk of sudden cardiac death and guiding optimal treatments of heart rhythm disorders. Finally, an outlook toward potential future advances, including the combination of mechanistic modeling and machine learning/artificial intelligence, is provided. As the field of cardiology is embarking on a journey toward precision medicine, personalized modeling of the heart is expected to become a key technology to guide pharmaceutical therapy, deployment of devices, and surgical interventions.

Assessing the arrhythmogenic propensity of fibrotic substrate using digital twins to inform a mechanisms-based atrial fibrillation ablation strategy

Atrial fibrillation (AF), the most common heart rhythm disorder, may cause stroke and heart failure. For patients with persistent AF with fibrosis proliferation, the standard AF treatment-pulmonary vein isolation-has poor outcomes, necessitating redo procedures, owing to insufficient understanding of what constitutes good targets in fibrotic substrates. Here we present a prospective clinical and personalized digital twin study that characterizes the arrhythmogenic properties of persistent AF substrates and uncovers locations possessing rotor-attracting capabilities. Among these, a portion needs to be ablated to render the substrate not inducible for rotors, but the rest (37%) lose rotor-attracting capabilities when another location is ablated. Leveraging digital twin mechanistic insights, we suggest ablation targets that eliminate arrhythmia propensity with minimum lesions while also minimizing the risk of iatrogenic tachycardia and AF recurrence. Our findings provide further evidence regarding the appropriate substrate ablation targets in persistent AF, opening the door for effective strategies to mitigate patients' AF burden.

Digital twins in medicine

Medical digital twins, which are potentially vital for personalized medicine, have become a recent focus in medical research. Here we present an overview of the state of the art in medical digital twin development, especially in oncology and cardiology, where it is most advanced. We discuss major challenges, such as data integration and privacy, and provide an outlook on future advancements. Emphasizing the importance of this technology in healthcare, we highlight the potential for substantial improvements in patient-specific treatments and diagnostics.

Computational Modeling and Simulation of the Fibrotic Human Atria

Patient-specific modeling of atrial electrical activity enables the execution of simulations that can provide mechanistic insights and provide novel solutions to vexing clinical problems. The geometry and fibrotic remodeling of the heart can be reconstructed from clinical-grade medical scans and used to inform personalized models with detail incorporated at the cell- and tissue-scale to represent changes in image-identified diseased regions. Here, we provide a rubric for the reconstruction of realistic atrial models from pre-segmented 3D renderings of the left atrium with fibrotic tissue regions delineated, which are the output from clinical-grade systems for quantifying fibrosis. We then provide a roadmap for using those models to carry out patient-specific characterization of the fibrotic substrate in terms of its potential to harbor reentrant drivers via cardiac electrophysiology simulations.

Up digital and personal: How heart digital twins can transform heart patient care

Precision medicine is the vision of health care where therapy is tailored to each patient. As part of this vision, digital twinning technology promises to deliver a digital representation of organs or even patients by using tools capable of simulating personal health conditions and predicting patient or disease trajectories on the basis of relationships learned both from data and from biophysics knowledge. Such virtual replicas would update themselves with data from monitoring devices and medical tests and assessments, reflecting dynamically the changes in our health conditions and the responses to treatment. In precision cardiology, the concepts and initial applications of heart digital twins have slowly been gaining popularity and the trust of the clinical community. In this article, we review the advancement in heart digital twinning and its initial translation to the management of heart rhythm disorders.

Atrial Ablation Lesion Evaluation by Cardiac Magnetic Resonance: Review of Imaging Strategies and Histological Correlations

Cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging is a valuable noninvasive tool for evaluating tissue response following catheter ablation of atrial tissue. This review provides an overview of the contemporary CMR strategies to visualize atrial ablation lesions in both the acute and chronic postablation stages, focusing on their strengths and limitations. Moreover, the accuracy of CMR imaging in comparison to atrial lesion histology is discussed. T2-weighted CMR imaging is sensitive to edema and tends to overestimate lesion size in the acute stage after ablation. Noncontrast agent-enhanced T1-weighted CMR imaging has the potential to provide more accurate assessment of lesions in the acute stage but may not be as effective in the chronic stage. Late gadolinium enhancement imaging can be used to detect chronic atrial scarring, which may inform repeat ablation strategies. Moreover, novel imaging strategies are being developed, but their efficacy in characterizing atrial lesions is yet to be determined. Overall, CMR imaging has the potential to provide virtual histology that aids in evaluating the efficacy and safety of catheter ablation and monitoring of postprocedural myocardial changes. However, technical factors, scanning during arrhythmia, and transmurality assessment pose challenges. Therefore, further research is needed to develop CMR strategies to visualize the ablation lesion maturation process more effectively.

Comparing Inducibility of Re-Entrant Arrhythmia in Patient-Specific Computational Models to Clinical Atrial Fibrillation Phenotypes

BACKGROUND

Computational models of fibrosis-mediated, re-entrant left atrial (LA) arrhythmia can identify possible substrate for persistent atrial fibrillation (AF) ablation. Contemporary models use a 1-size-fits-all approach to represent electrophysiological properties, limiting agreement between simulations and patient outcomes.

OBJECTIVES

The goal of this study was to test the hypothesis that conduction velocity (ϴ) modulation in persistent AF models can improve simulation agreement with clinical arrhythmias.

METHODS

Patients with persistent AF (n = 37) underwent ablation and were followed up for ≥2 years to determine post-ablation outcomes: AF, atrial flutter (AFL), or no recurrence. Patient-specific LA models (n = 74) were constructed using pre-ablation and ≥90 days' post-ablation magnetic resonance imaging data. Simulated pacing gauged in silico arrhythmia inducibility due to AF-like rotors or AFL-like macro re-entrant tachycardias. A physiologically plausible range of ϴ values (±10 or 20% vs. baseline) was tested, and model/clinical agreement was assessed.

RESULTS

Fifteen (41%) patients had a recurrence with AF and 6 (16%) with AFL. Arrhythmia was induced in 1,078 of 5,550 simulations. Using baseline ϴ, model/clinical agreement was 46% (34 of 74 models), improving to 65% (48 of 74) when any possible ϴ value was used (McNemar's test, P = 0.014). ϴ modulation improved model/clinical agreement in both pre-ablation and post-ablation models. Pre-ablation model/clinical agreement was significantly greater for patients with extensive LA fibrosis (>17.2%) and an elevated body mass index (>32.0 kg/m2).

CONCLUSIONS

Simulations in persistent AF models show a 41% relative improvement in model/clinical agreement when ϴ is modulated. Patient-specific calibration of ϴ values could improve model/clinical agreement and model usefulness, especially in patients with higher body mass index or LA fibrosis burden. This could ultimately facilitate better personalized modeling, with immediate clinical implications.

Artificial Intelligence in the Image-Guided Care of Atrial Fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation arises mainly due to abnormalities in the cardiac conduction system and is associated with anatomical remodeling of the atria and the pulmonary veins. Cardiovascular imaging techniques, such as echocardiography, computed tomography, and magnetic resonance imaging, are crucial in the management of atrial fibrillation, as they not only provide anatomical context to evaluate structural alterations but also help in determining treatment strategies. However, interpreting these images requires significant human expertise. The potential of artificial intelligence in analyzing these images has been repeatedly suggested due to its ability to automate the process with precision comparable to human experts. This review summarizes the benefits of artificial intelligence in enhancing the clinical care of patients with atrial fibrillation through cardiovascular image analysis. It provides a detailed overview of the two most critical steps in image-guided AF management, namely, segmentation and classification. For segmentation, the state-of-the-art artificial intelligence methodologies and the factors influencing the segmentation performance are discussed. For classification, the applications of artificial intelligence in the diagnosis and prognosis of atrial fibrillation are provided. Finally, this review also scrutinizes the current challenges hindering the clinical applicability of these methods, with the aim of guiding future research toward more effective integration into clinical practice.

AugmentA: Patient-specific augmented atrial model generation tool

Digital twins of patients' hearts are a promising tool to assess arrhythmia vulnerability and to personalize therapy. However, the process of building personalized computational models can be challenging and requires a high level of human interaction. We propose a patient-specific Augmented Atria generation pipeline (AugmentA) as a highly automated framework which, starting from clinical geometrical data, provides ready-to-use atrial personalized computational models. AugmentA identifies and labels atrial orifices using only one reference point per atrium. If the user chooses to fit a statistical shape model to the input geometry, it is first rigidly aligned with the given mean shape before a non-rigid fitting procedure is applied. AugmentA automatically generates the fiber orientation and finds local conduction velocities by minimizing the error between the simulated and clinical local activation time (LAT) map. The pipeline was tested on a cohort of 29 patients on both segmented magnetic resonance images (MRI) and electroanatomical maps of the left atrium. Moreover, the pipeline was applied to a bi-atrial volumetric mesh derived from MRI. The pipeline robustly integrated fiber orientation and anatomical region annotations in 38.4 ± 5.7 s. In conclusion, AugmentA offers an automated and comprehensive pipeline delivering atrial digital twins from clinical data in procedural time.

Explainable Machine Learning to Predict Anchored Reentry Substrate Created by Persistent Atrial Fibrillation Ablation in Computational Models

Background Postablation arrhythmia recurrence occurs in ~40% of patients with persistent atrial fibrillation. Fibrotic remodeling exacerbates arrhythmic activity in persistent atrial fibrillation and can play a key role in reentrant arrhythmia, but emergent interaction between nonconductive ablation-induced scar and native fibrosis (ie, residual fibrosis) is poorly understood. Methods and Results We conducted computational simulations in pre- and postablation left atrial models reconstructed from late gadolinium enhanced magnetic resonance imaging scans to test the hypothesis that ablation in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation creates new substrate conducive to recurrent arrhythmia mediated by anchored reentry. We trained a random forest machine learning classifier to accurately pinpoint specific nonconductive tissue regions (ie, areas of ablation-delivered scar or vein/valve boundaries) with the capacity to serve as substrate for anchored reentry-driven recurrent arrhythmia (area under the curve: 0.91±0.03). Our analysis suggests there is a distinctive nonconductive tissue pattern prone to serving as arrhythmogenic substrate in postablation models, defined by a specific size and proximity to residual fibrosis. Conclusions Overall, this suggests persistent atrial fibrillation ablation transforms substrate that favors functional reentry (ie, rotors meandering in excitable tissue) into an arrhythmogenic milieu more conducive to anchored reentry. Our work also indicates that explainable machine learning and computational simulations can be combined to effectively probe mechanisms of recurrent arrhythmia.

Long-term changes in heart rate and electrical remodeling contribute to alternans formation in heart failure: a patient-specific in silico study

Individuals with chronic heart failure (CHF) have an increased risk of ventricular arrhythmias, which has been linked to pathological cellular remodeling and may also be mediated by changes in heart rate. Heart rate typically fluctuates on a timescale ranging from seconds to hours, termed heart rate variability (HRV). This variability is reduced in CHF, and this HRV reduction is associated with a greater risk for arrhythmias. Furthermore, variations in heart rate influence the formation of proarrhythmic alternans, a beat-to-beat alternation in the action potential duration (APD), or intracellular calcium (Ca). In this study, we investigate how long-term changes in heart rate and electrical remodeling associated with CHF influence alternans formation. We measure key statistical properties of the RR-interval sequences from ECGs of individuals with normal sinus rhythm (NSR) and CHF. Patient-specific RR-interval sequences and synthetic sequences (randomly generated to mimicking these statistical properties) are used as the pacing protocol for a discrete time-coupled map model that governs APD and intracellular Ca handling of a single cardiac myocyte, modified to account for pathological electrical remodeling in CHF. Patient-specific simulations show that beat-to-beat differences in APD vary temporally in both populations, with alternans formation more prevalent in CHF. Parameter studies using synthetic sequences demonstrate that increasing the autocorrelation time or mean RR-interval reduces APD alternations, whereas increasing the RR-interval standard deviation leads to higher alternans magnitudes. Importantly, we find that although both the CHF-associated changes in heart rate and electrical remodeling influence alternans formation, variations in heart rate may be more influential.NEW & NOTEWORTHY Using patient-specific data, we show that both the changes in heart rate and electrical remodeling associated with chronic heart failure influence the formation of proarrhythmic alternans in the heart.

How can the adult zebrafish and neonatal mice teach us about stimulating cardiac regeneration in the human heart?

The proliferative capacity of mammalian cardiomyocytes diminishes shortly after birth. In contrast, adult zebrafish and neonatal mice can regenerate cardiac tissues, highlighting new potential therapeutic avenues. Different factors have been found to promote cardiomyocyte proliferation in zebrafish and neonatal mice; these include maintenance of mononuclear and diploid cardiomyocytes and upregulation of the proto-oncogene c-Myc. The growth factor NRG-1 controls cell proliferation and interacts with the Hippo-Yap pathway to modulate regeneration. Key components of the extracellular matrix such as Agrin are also crucial for cardiac regeneration. Novel therapies explored in this review, include intramyocardial injection of Agrin or zebrafish-ECM and NRG-1 administration. These therapies may induce regeneration in patients and should be further explored.

Clinical and Structural Factors Affecting Ablation Outcomes in Atrial Fibrillation Patients - A Review

Catheter ablation is an effective and durable treatment option for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Ablation outcomes vary widely, with optimal results in patients with paroxysmal AF and diminishing results in patients with persistent or long-standing persistent AF. A number of clinical factors including obesity, hypertension, diabetes, obstructive sleep apnea, and alcohol use contribute to AF recurrence following ablation, likely through modulation of the atrial electroanatomic substrate. In this article, we review the clinical risk factors and the electro-anatomic features that contribute to AF recurrence in patients undergoing ablation for AF.

Atrial fibrillation: Insights from animal models, computational modeling, and clinical studies

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common human arrhythmia, affecting millions of patients worldwide. A combination of risk factors and comorbidities results in complex atrial remodeling, which increases AF vulnerability and persistence. Insights from animal models, clinical studies, and computational modeling have advanced the understanding of the mechanisms and pathophysiology of AF. Areas of heterogeneous pathological remodeling, as well as altered electrophysiological properties, serve as a substrate for AF drivers and spontaneous activations. The complex and individualized presentation of this arrhythmia suggests that mechanisms-based personalized approaches will likely be needed to overcome current challenges in AF management. In this paper, we review the insights on the mechanisms of AF obtained from animal models and clinical studies and how computational models integrate this knowledge to advance AF clinical management. We also assess the challenges that need to be overcome to implement these mechanistic models in clinical practice.

A personalized real-time virtual model of whole heart electrophysiology

Computer models capable of representing the intrinsic personal electrophysiology (EP) of the heart in silico are termed virtual heart technologies. When anatomy and EP are tailored to individual patients within the model, such technologies are promising clinical and industrial tools. Regardless of their vast potential, few virtual technologies simulating the entire organ-scale EP of all four-chambers of the heart have been reported and widespread clinical use is limited due to high computational costs and difficulty in validation. We thus report on the development of a novel virtual technology representing the electrophysiology of all four-chambers of the heart aiming to overcome these limitations. In our previous work, a model of ventricular EP embedded in a torso was constructed from clinical magnetic resonance image (MRI) data and personalized according to the measured 12 lead electrocardiogram (ECG) of a single subject under normal sinus rhythm. This model is then expanded upon to include whole heart EP and a detailed representation of the His-Purkinje system (HPS). To test the capacities of the personalized virtual heart technology to replicate standard clinical morphological ECG features under such conditions, bundle branch blocks within both the right and the left ventricles under two different conduction velocity settings are modeled alongside sinus rhythm. To ensure clinical viability, model generation was completely automated and simulations were performed using an efficient real-time cardiac EP simulator. Close correspondence between the measured and simulated 12 lead ECG was observed under normal sinus conditions and all simulated bundle branch blocks manifested relevant clinical morphological features.

How synergy between mechanistic and statistical models is impacting research in atrial fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation (AF) with multiple complications, high morbidity and mortality, and low cure rates, has become a global public health problem. Although significant progress has been made in the treatment methods represented by anti-AF drugs and radiofrequency ablation, the therapeutic effect is not as good as expected. The reason is mainly because of our lack of understanding of AF mechanisms. This field has benefited from mechanistic and (or) statistical methodologies. Recent renewed interest in digital twin techniques by synergizing between mechanistic and statistical models has opened new frontiers in AF analysis. In the review, we briefly present findings that gave rise to the AF pathophysiology and current therapeutic modalities. We then summarize the achievements of digital twin technologies in three aspects: understanding AF mechanisms, screening anti-AF drugs and optimizing ablation strategies. Finally, we discuss the challenges that hinder the clinical application of the digital twin heart. With the rapid progress in data reuse and sharing, we expect their application to realize the transition from AF description to response prediction.

Left atrium phasic impairments in paroxysmal atrial fibrillation patients assessed by cardiovascular magnetic resonance feature tracking

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is an abnormal and irregular heartbeat caused by uncoordinated electrical impulses in the left atrium (LA), which could induce lasting changes in the heart tissue or could be a consequence of underlying cardiac disease. This study aimed to assess the left atrial phasic function and deformation in paroxysmal AF (PAF) patients—who had not received radiofrequency ablation and had no signs of permanent AF—using the cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) feature-tracking (FT) technique. Fifty subjects (27 PAF patients and 23 controls) were included and examined with CMR. Their LA volume, LA function, LA longitudinal strain (LS) and LA strain rate were assessed in the LA reservoir, conduit, and contractile phases. PAF patients exhibited higher LA volumes than controls, while their LA emptying fraction and LA LS was significantly lower in all three phases. In contrast, the corresponding emptying volumes (total, passive and active) were similar in both groups. The LA volumetric rates from CMR-derived volume curves differed significantly in PAF patients vs controls in the reservoir and contractile phases. In contrast, the equivalent LV volumetric rates were similar. This study suggests that assessing the LA phasic function could offer insight into early LA impairments for PAF patients.

The impact of the atrial wall thickness in normal/mild late-gadolinium enhancement areas on atrial fibrillation rotors in persistent atrial fibrillation patients

Background

Some of atrial fibrillation (AF) drivers are found in normal/mild late-gadolinium enhancement (LGE) areas, as well as moderate ones. The atrial wall thickness (AWT) has been reported to be important as a possible AF substrate. However, the AWT and degree of LGEs as an AF substrate has not been fully validated in humans.

Objective

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of the AWT in normal/mild LGE areas on AF drivers.

Methods

A total of 287 segments in 15 persistent AF patients were assessed. AF drivers were defined as non-passively activated areas (NPAs), where rotational activation was frequently observed, and were detected by the novel real-time phase mapping (ExTRa Mapping), mild LGE areas were defined as areas with a volume ratio of the enhancement voxel of 0% to <10%. The AWT was defined as the minimum distance from the manually determined endocardium to the epicardial border on the LGE-MRI.

Results

NPAs were found in 20 (18.0%) of 131 normal/mild LGE areas where AWT was significantly thicker than that in the passively activated areas (PAs) (2.5 ± 0.3 vs. 2.2 ± 0.3 mm, p < .001). However, NPAs were found in 41 (26.3%) of 156 moderate LGE areas where AWT was thinner than that of PAs (2.1 ± 0.2 mm vs. 2.23 ± 0.3 mm, p = .02). An ROC curve analysis yielded an optimal cutoff value of 2.2 mm for predicting the presence of an NPA in normal/mild LGE areas.

Conclusion

The location of AF drivers in normal/mild LGE areas might be more accurately identified by evaluating AWT.

Predicting Atrial Fibrillation Recurrence by Combining Population Data and Virtual Cohorts of Patient-Specific Left Atrial Models

BACKGROUND

Current ablation therapy for atrial fibrillation is suboptimal, and long-term response is challenging to predict. Clinical trials identify bedside properties that provide only modest prediction of long-term response in populations, while patient-specific models in small cohorts primarily explain acute response to ablation. We aimed to predict long-term atrial fibrillation recurrence after ablation in large cohorts, by using machine learning to complement biophysical simulations by encoding more interindividual variability.

METHODS

Patient-specific models were constructed for 100 atrial fibrillation patients (43 paroxysmal, 41 persistent, and 16 long-standing persistent), undergoing first ablation. Patients were followed for 1 year using ambulatory ECG monitoring. Each patient-specific biophysical model combined differing fibrosis patterns, fiber orientation maps, electrical properties, and ablation patterns to capture uncertainty in atrial properties and to test the ability of the tissue to sustain fibrillation. These simulation stress tests of different model variants were postprocessed to calculate atrial fibrillation simulation metrics. Machine learning classifiers were trained to predict atrial fibrillation recurrence using features from the patient history, imaging, and atrial fibrillation simulation metrics.

RESULTS

We performed 1100 atrial fibrillation ablation simulations across 100 patient-specific models. Models based on simulation stress tests alone showed a maximum accuracy of 0.63 for predicting long-term fibrillation recurrence. Classifiers trained to history, imaging, and simulation stress tests (average 10-fold cross-validation area under the curve, 0.85±0.09; recall, 0.80±0.13; precision, 0.74±0.13) outperformed those trained to history and imaging (area under the curve, 0.66±0.17) or history alone (area under the curve, 0.61±0.14).

CONCLUSION

A novel computational pipeline accurately predicted long-term atrial fibrillation recurrence in individual patients by combining outcome data with patient-specific acute simulation response. This technique could help to personalize selection for atrial fibrillation ablation.

Current progress of computational modeling for guiding clinical atrial fibrillation ablation

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is one of the most common arrhythmias, associated with high morbidity, mortality, and healthcare costs, and it places a significant burden on both individuals and society. Anti-arrhythmic drugs are the most commonly used strategy for treating AF. However, drug therapy faces challenges because of its limited efficacy and potential side effects. Catheter ablation is widely used as an alternative treatment for AF. Nevertheless, because the mechanism of AF is not fully understood, the recurrence rate after ablation remains high. In addition, the outcomes of ablation can vary significantly between medical institutions and patients, especially for persistent AF. Therefore, the issue of which ablation strategy is optimal is still far from settled. Computational modeling has the advantages of repeatable operation, low cost, freedom from risk, and complete control, and is a useful tool for not only predicting the results of different ablation strategies on the same model but also finding optimal personalized ablation targets for clinical reference and even guidance. This review summarizes three-dimensional computational modeling simulations of catheter ablation for AF, from the early-stage attempts such as Maze III or circumferential pulmonary vein isolation to the latest advances based on personalized substrate-guided ablation. Finally, we summarize current developments and challenges and provide our perspectives and suggestions for future directions.

Time-Averaged Wavefront Analysis Demonstrates Preferential Pathways of Atrial Fibrillation, Predicting Pulmonary Vein Isolation Acute Response

Electrical activation during atrial fibrillation (AF) appears chaotic and disorganised, which impedes characterisation of the underlying substrate and treatment planning. While globally chaotic, there may be local preferential activation pathways that represent potential ablation targets. This study aimed to identify preferential activation pathways during AF and predict the acute ablation response when these are targeted by pulmonary vein isolation (PVI). In patients with persistent AF (n = 14), simultaneous biatrial contact mapping with basket catheters was performed pre-ablation and following each ablation strategy (PVI, roof, and mitral lines). Unipolar wavefront activation directions were averaged over 10 s to identify preferential activation pathways. Clinical cases were classified as responders or non-responders to PVI during the procedure. Clinical data were augmented with a virtual cohort of 100 models. In AF pre-ablation, pathways originated from the pulmonary vein (PV) antra in PVI responders (7/7) but not in PVI non-responders (6/6). We proposed a novel index that measured activation waves from the PV antra into the atrial body. This index was significantly higher in PVI responders than non-responders (clinical: 16.3 vs. 3.7%, p = 0.04; simulated: 21.1 vs. 14.1%, p = 0.02). Overall, this novel technique and proof of concept study demonstrated that preferential activation pathways exist during AF. Targeting patient-specific activation pathways that flowed from the PV antra to the left atrial body using PVI resulted in AF termination during the procedure. These PV activation flow pathways may correspond to the presence of drivers in the PV regions.

Efficacy of Extensive Ablation for Persistent Atrial Fibrillation With Trigger-Based vs. Substrate-Based Mechanisms - A Prespecified Subanalysis of the EARNEST-PVI Trial

BACKGROUND

Extensive ablation in addition to pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) would be effective for modification of non-pulmonary vein (non-PV) substrates, whereas PVI might be sufficient for elimination of PV triggers. This study aimed to test the hypothesis that in patients with reproducible atrial fibrillation (AF) triggered by premature atrial contractions originating only from PVs, PVI alone can be sufficient to maintain sinus rhythm.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This study is a prespecified subanalysis of the EARNEST-PVI randomized controlled trial. This study investigated the efficacy of the PVI-alone strategy (PVI-alone) in comparison with the extensive strategy (PVI-plus) for persistent AF with a trigger-based mechanism vs. a substrate-based mechanism. Patients were stratified into 3 groups based on AF mechanisms: (1) Substrate group (N=236); (2) PV trigger group (N=236); and (3) non-PV trigger group (N=24). The hazard ratios for AF recurrence of the PVI-alone strategy with reference to the PVI-plus strategy were 1.456 (95% confidence interval [CI] [0.864-2.452]) in the substrate group, 1.648 (95% CI 0.969-2.801) in the PV trigger group, and 0.937 (95% CI 0.252-3.488) in the non-PV trigger group. No significant interaction between ablation strategy and AF mechanism was observed (P for interaction=0.748).

CONCLUSIONS

This study indicated that the efficacies of the PVI-alone strategy compared with the PVI-plus strategy were consistent across persistent AF with trigger-based and substrate-based mechanisms.

Synergistic antiarrhythmic effect of inward rectifier current inhibition and pulmonary vein isolation in a 3D computer model for atrial fibrillation

AIMS

Recent clinical studies showed that antiarrhythmic drug (AAD) treatment and pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) synergistically reduce atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrences after initially successful ablation. Among newly developed atrial-selective AADs, inhibitors of the G-protein-gated acetylcholine-activated inward rectifier current (IKACh) were shown to effectively suppress AF in an experimental model but have not yet been evaluated clinically. We tested in silico whether inhibition of inward rectifier current or its combination with PVI reduces AF inducibility.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We simulated the effect of inward rectifier current blockade (IK blockade), PVI, and their combination on AF inducibility in a detailed three-dimensional model of the human atria with different degrees of fibrosis. IK blockade was simulated with a 30% reduction of its conductivity. Atrial fibrillation was initiated using incremental pacing applied at 20 different locations, in both atria. IK blockade effectively prevented AF induction in simulations without fibrosis as did PVI in simulations without fibrosis and with moderate fibrosis. Both interventions lost their efficacy in severe fibrosis. The combination of IK blockade and PVI prevented AF in simulations without fibrosis, with moderate fibrosis, and even with severe fibrosis. The combined therapy strongly decreased the number of fibrillation waves, due to a synergistic reduction of wavefront generation rate while the wavefront lifespan remained unchanged.

CONCLUSION

Newly developed blockers of atrial-specific inward rectifier currents, such as IKAch, might prevent AF occurrences and when combined with PVI effectively supress AF recurrences in human.

Characterizing the arrhythmogenic substrate in personalized models of atrial fibrillation: sensitivity to mesh resolution and pacing protocol in AF models

AIMS

Computationally guided persistent atrial fibrillation (PsAF) ablation has emerged as an alternative to conventional treatment planning. To make this approach scalable, computational cost and the time required to conduct simulations must be minimized while maintaining predictive accuracy. Here, we assess the sensitivity of the process to finite-element mesh resolution. We also compare methods for pacing site distribution used to evaluate inducibility arrhythmia sustained by re-entrant drivers (RDs).

METHODS AND RESULTS

Simulations were conducted in low- and high-resolution models (average edge lengths: 400/350 µm) reconstructed from PsAF patients' late gadolinium enhancement magnetic resonance imaging scans. Pacing was simulated from 80 sites to assess RD inducibility. When pacing from the same site led to different outcomes in low-/high-resolution models, we characterized divergence dynamics by analysing dissimilarity index over time. Pacing site selection schemes prioritizing even spatial distribution and proximity to fibrotic tissue were evaluated. There were no RD sites observed in low-resolution models but not high-resolution models, or vice versa. Dissimilarity index analysis suggested that differences in simulation outcome arising from differences in discretization were the result of isolated conduction block incidents in one model but not the other; this never led to RD sites unique to one mesh resolution. Pacing site selection based on fibrosis proximity led to the best observed trade-off between number of stimulation locations and predictive accuracy.

CONCLUSION

Simulations conducted in meshes with 400 µm average edge length and ∼40 pacing sites proximal to fibrosis are sufficient to reveal the most comprehensive possible list of RD sites, given feasibility constraints.

Computational models of atrial fibrillation: achievements, challenges, and perspectives for improving clinical care

Despite significant advances in its detection, understanding and management, atrial fibrillation (AF) remains a highly prevalent cardiac arrhythmia with a major impact on morbidity and mortality of millions of patients. AF results from complex, dynamic interactions between risk factors and comorbidities that induce diverse atrial remodelling processes. Atrial remodelling increases AF vulnerability and persistence, while promoting disease progression. The variability in presentation and wide range of mechanisms involved in initiation, maintenance and progression of AF, as well as its associated adverse outcomes, make the early identification of causal factors modifiable with therapeutic interventions challenging, likely contributing to suboptimal efficacy of current AF management. Computational modelling facilitates the multilevel integration of multiple datasets and offers new opportunities for mechanistic understanding, risk prediction and personalized therapy. Mathematical simulations of cardiac electrophysiology have been around for 60 years and are being increasingly used to improve our understanding of AF mechanisms and guide AF therapy. This narrative review focuses on the emerging and future applications of computational modelling in AF management. We summarize clinical challenges that may benefit from computational modelling, provide an overview of the different in silico approaches that are available together with their notable achievements, and discuss the major limitations that hinder the routine clinical application of these approaches. Finally, future perspectives are addressed. With the rapid progress in electronic technologies including computing, clinical applications of computational modelling are advancing rapidly. We expect that their application will progressively increase in prominence, especially if their added value can be demonstrated in clinical trials.

Presence of Left Atrial Fibrosis May Contribute to Aberrant Hemodynamics and Increased Risk of Stroke in Atrial Fibrillation Patients

Atrial fibrillation (AF) patients are at high risk of stroke, with the left atrial appendage (LAA) found to be the most common site of clot formation. Presence of left atrial (LA) fibrosis has also been associated with higher stroke risk. However, the mechanisms for increased stroke risk in patients with atrial fibrotic remodeling are poorly understood. We sought to explore these mechanisms using fluid dynamic analysis and to test the hypothesis that the presence of LA fibrosis leads to aberrant hemodynamics in the LA, contributing to increased stroke risk in AF patients. We retrospectively collected late-gadolinium-enhanced MRI (LGE-MRI) images of eight AF patients (four persistent and four paroxysmal) and reconstructed their 3D LA surfaces. Personalized computational fluid dynamic simulations were performed, and hemodynamics at the LA wall were quantified by wall shear stress (WSS, friction of blood), oscillatory shear index (OSI, temporal directional change of WSS), endothelial cell activation potential (ECAP, ratio of OSI and WSS), and relative residence time (RRT, residence time of blood near the LA wall). For each case, these hemodynamic metrics were compared between fibrotic and non-fibrotic portions of the wall. Our results showed that WSS was lower, and OSI, ECAP, and RRT was higher in the fibrotic region as compared to the non-fibrotic region, with ECAP (p = 0.001) and RRT (p = 0.002) having significant differences. Case-wise analysis showed that these differences in hemodynamics were statistically significant for seven cases. Furthermore, patients with higher fibrotic burden were exposed to larger regions of high ECAP, which represents regions of low WSS and high OSI. Consistently, high ECAP in the vicinity of the fibrotic wall suggest that local blood flow was slow and oscillating that represents aberrant hemodynamic conditions, thus enabling prothrombotic conditions for circulating blood. AF patients with high LA fibrotic burden had more prothrombotic regions, providing more sites for potential clot formation, thus increasing their risk of stroke.

Computational modeling identifies embolic stroke of undetermined source patients with potential arrhythmic substrate

Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has revealed fibrosis in embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) patients comparable to levels seen in atrial fibrillation (AFib). We used computational modeling to understand the absence of arrhythmia in ESUS despite the presence of putatively pro-arrhythmic fibrosis. MRI-based atrial models were reconstructed for 45 ESUS and 45 AFib patients. The fibrotic substrate's arrhythmogenic capacity in each patient was assessed computationally. Reentrant drivers were induced in 24/45 (53%) ESUS and 22/45 (49%) AFib models. Inducible models had more fibrosis (16.7 ± 5.45%) than non-inducible models (11.07 ± 3.61%; p<0.0001); however, inducible subsets of ESUS and AFib models had similar fibrosis levels (p=0.90), meaning that the intrinsic pro-arrhythmic substrate properties of fibrosis in ESUS and AFib are indistinguishable. This suggests that some ESUS patients have latent pre-clinical fibrotic substrate that could be a future source of arrhythmogenicity. Thus, our work prompts the hypothesis that ESUS patients with fibrotic atria are spared from AFib due to an absence of arrhythmia triggers.

Competitive Drivers of Atrial Fibrillation: The Interplay Between Focal Drivers and Multiwavelet Reentry

Background

There is debate whether human atrial fibrillation is driven by focal drivers or multiwavelet reentry. We propose that the changing activation sequences surrounding a focal driver can at times self-sustain in the absence of that driver. Further, the relationship between focal drivers and surrounding chaotic activation is bidirectional; focal drivers can generate chaotic activation, which may affect the dynamics of focal drivers.

Methods and Results

In a propagation model, we generated tissues that support structural micro-reentry and moving functional reentrant circuits. We qualitatively assessed (1) the tissue’s ability to support self-sustaining fibrillation after elimination of the focal driver, (2) the impact that structural-reentrant substrate has on the duration of fibrillation, the impact that micro-reentrant (3) frequency, (4) excitable gap, and (5) exposure to surrounding fibrillation have on micro-reentry in the setting of chaotic activation, and finally the likelihood fibrillation will end in structural reentry based on (6) the distance between and (7) the relative lengths of an ablated tissue’s inner and outer boundaries. We found (1) focal drivers produced chaotic activation when waves encountered heterogeneous refractoriness; chaotic activation could then repeatedly initiate and terminate micro-reentry. Perpetuation of fibrillation following elimination of micro-reentry was predicted by tissue properties. (2) Duration of fibrillation was increased by the presence of a structural micro-reentrant substrate only when surrounding tissue had a low propensity to support self-sustaining chaotic activation. Likelihood of micro-reentry around the structural reentrant substrate increased as (3) the frequency of structural reentry increased relative to the frequency of fibrillation in the surrounding tissue, (4) the excitable gap of micro-reentry increased, and (5) the exposure of the structural circuit to the surrounding tissue decreased. Likelihood of organized tachycardia following termination of fibrillation increased with (6) decreasing distance and (7) disparity of size between focal obstacle and external boundary.

Conclusion

Focal drivers such as structural micro-reentry and the chaotic activation they produce are continuously interacting with one another. In order to accurately describe cardiac tissue’s propensity to support fibrillation, the relative characteristics of both stationary and moving drivers must be taken into account.

Feasibility of catheter ablation in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation guided by fragmented late-gadolinium enhancement areas

BACKGROUND

A computer simulation model has demonstrated that atrial fibrillation (AF) driver can be attached to heterogeneous fibrosis assessed by late gadolinium enhancement magnetic resonance imaging (LGE-MRI). However, it has not been well elucidated in patients with persistent AF. The aim of this study was to investigate whether radiofrequency (RF) applications in the fragmented LGE area (FLA) could terminate AF or convert it to atrial tachycardia (AT) and improve the rhythm outcome.

METHODS

A total of 31 consecutive persistent AF patients with FLAs were enrolled (FLA ablation group, mean age: 69 ± 8 years, mean left atrial diameter: 42 ± 6 mm). A favorable response was defined as direct AF termination or AT conversion during RF applications at the FLA. The rhythm outcome was compared between the FLA ablation group and FLA burden-matched pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) group.

RESULTS

Favorable responses were found in 15 (48%) of 31 patients in the FLA group (AF termination in seven, AT conversion in eight patients), but not in the PVI group. AF recurrence at 12 months follow-up was significantly less in the FLA ablation group than in the PVI group (4 [13%] vs. 12 [39%] of 31 patients, log-rank p = .023). In patients with a favorable response, AT recurred in 1 (7%) of 15 patients, but AF did not.

CONCLUSIONS

FLA ablation could terminate AF or convert it to AT in half of the patients. No AF recurrence was documented in patients with a favorable response.

Translational applications of computational modelling for patients with cardiac arrhythmias

Cardiac arrhythmia is associated with high morbidity, and its underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. Computational modelling and simulation approaches have the potential to improve standard-of-care therapy for these disorders, offering deeper understanding of complex disease processes and sophisticated translational tools for planning clinical procedures. This review provides a clinician-friendly summary of recent advancements in computational cardiology. Organ-scale models automatically generated from clinical-grade imaging data are used to custom tailor our understanding of arrhythmia drivers, estimate future arrhythmogenic risk and personalise treatment plans. Recent mechanistic insights derived from atrial and ventricular arrhythmia simulations are highlighted, and the potential avenues to patient care (eg, by revealing new antiarrhythmic drug targets) are covered. Computational approaches geared towards improving outcomes in resynchronisation therapy have used simulations to elucidate optimal patient selection and lead location. Technology to personalise catheter ablation procedures are also covered, specifically preliminary outcomes form early-stage or pilot clinical studies. To conclude, future developments in computational cardiology are discussed, including improving the representation of patient-specific fibre orientations and fibrotic remodelling characterisation and how these might improve understanding of arrhythmia mechanisms and provide transformative tools for patient-specific therapy.

Comprehensive evaluation of electrophysiological and 3D structural features of human atrial myocardium with insights on atrial fibrillation maintenance mechanisms

Atrial fibrillation (AF) occurrence and maintenance is associated with progressive remodeling of electrophysiological (repolarization and conduction) and 3D structural (fibrosis, fiber orientations, and wall thickness) features of the human atria. Significant diversity in AF etiology leads to heterogeneous arrhythmogenic electrophysiological and structural substrates within the 3D structure of the human atria. Since current clinical methods have yet to fully resolve the patient-specific arrhythmogenic substrates, mechanism-based AF treatments remain underdeveloped. Here, we review current knowledge from in-vivo, ex-vivo, and in-vitro human heart studies, and discuss how these studies may provide new insights on the synergy of atrial electrophysiological and 3D structural features in AF maintenance. In-vitro studies on surgically acquired human atrial samples provide a great opportunity to study a wide spectrum of AF pathology, including functional changes in single-cell action potentials, ion channels, and gene/protein expression. However, limited size of the samples prevents evaluation of heterogeneous AF substrates and reentrant mechanisms. In contrast, coronary-perfused ex-vivo human hearts can be studied with state-of-the-art functional and structural technologies, such as high-resolution near-infrared optical mapping and contrast-enhanced MRI. These imaging modalities can resolve atrial arrhythmogenic substrates and their role in reentrant mechanisms maintaining AF and validate clinical approaches. Nonetheless, longitudinal studies are not feasible in explanted human hearts. As no approach is perfect, we suggest that combining the strengths of direct human atrial studies with high fidelity approaches available in the laboratory and in realistic patient-specific computer models would elucidate deeper knowledge of AF mechanisms. We propose that a comprehensive translational pipeline from ex-vivo human heart studies to longitudinal clinically relevant AF animal studies and finally to clinical trials is necessary to identify patient-specific arrhythmogenic substrates and develop novel AF treatments.

Using cardiac ionic cell models to interpret clinical data

For over 100 years cardiac electrophysiology has been measured in the clinic. The electrical signals that can be measured span from noninvasive ECG and body surface potentials measurements through to detailed invasive measurements of local tissue electrophysiology. These electrophysiological measurements form a crucial component of patient diagnosis and monitoring; however, it remains challenging to quantitatively link changes in clinical electrophysiology measurements to biophysical cellular function. Multi-scale biophysical computational models represent one solution to this problem. These models provide a formal framework for linking cellular function through to emergent whole organ function and routine clinical diagnostic signals. In this review, we describe recent work on the use of computational models to interpret clinical electrophysiology signals. We review the simulation of human cardiac myocyte electrophysiology in the atria and the ventricles and how these models are being used to link organ scale function to patient disease mechanisms and therapy response in patients receiving implanted defibrillators, \cardiac resynchronisation therapy or suffering from atrial fibrillation and ventricular tachycardia. There is a growing use of multi-scale biophysical models to interpret clinical data. This allows cardiologists to link clinical observations with cellular mechanisms to better understand cardiopathophysiology and identify novel treatment strategies. This article is categorized under: Cardiovascular Diseases > Computational Models Cardiovascular Diseases > Biomedical Engineering Cardiovascular Diseases > Molecular and Cellular Physiology.

Atrial Substrate Underlies the Recurrence after Catheter Ablation in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation

Prediction of recurrences after catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation (AF) remains challenging. We sought to investigate the long-term outcomes after AF catheter ablation. A total of 2221 consecutive patients who underwent catheter ablation for symptomatic AF were included in this study (mean age 55 ± 11 years, 20.3% women, and 59.0% paroxysmal AF). Extensive ablation, in addition to circumferential pulmonary vein isolation, was more often accomplished in patients with non-paroxysmal AF than in those with paroxysmal AF (87.4% vs. 25.3%, p < 0.001). During a median follow-up of 54 months, sinus rhythm (SR) was maintained in 67.1% after index procedure. After redo procedures in 418 patients, 83.3% exhibited SR maintenance. Recurrence rates were similar for single and multiple procedures (17.4% vs. 16.7%, p = 0.765). Subanalysis showed that the extent of late gadolinium enhancement (LGE), as assessed by cardiac magnetic resonance, is greater in patients with recurrence than in those without recurrence (36.2 ± 23.9% vs. 21.8 ± 13.7%, p < 0.001). Cox-regression analysis revealed that non-paroxysmal AF (hazard ratio (HR) 2.238, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.905-2.629, p < 0.001), overweight (HR 1.314, 95% CI 1.107-1.559, p = 0.020), left atrium dimension ≥ 45 mm (HR 1.284, 95% CI 1.085-1.518, p = 0.004), AF duration (HR 1.020 per year, 95% CI 1.006-1.034, p = 0.004), and LGE ≥ 25% (HR 1.726, 95% CI 1.330-2.239, p < 0.001) are significantly associated with AF recurrence after catheter ablation. This study showed that repeated catheter ablation improves the clinical outcomes of patients with non-paroxysmal AF, suggesting that AF substrate based on LGE may underpin the mechanism of recurrence after catheter ablation.

Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in Arrhythmias and Cardiac Electrophysiology

Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in medicine are currently areas of intense exploration, showing potential to automate human tasks and even perform tasks beyond human capabilities. Literacy and understanding of AI/ML methods are becoming increasingly important to researchers and clinicians. The first objective of this review is to provide the novice reader with literacy of AI/ML methods and provide a foundation for how one might conduct an ML study. We provide a technical overview of some of the most commonly used terms, techniques, and challenges in AI/ML studies, with reference to recent studies in cardiac electrophysiology to illustrate key points. The second objective of this review is to use examples from recent literature to discuss how AI and ML are changing clinical practice and research in cardiac electrophysiology, with emphasis on disease detection and diagnosis, prediction of patient outcomes, and novel characterization of disease. The final objective is to highlight important considerations and challenges for appropriate validation, adoption, and deployment of AI technologies into clinical practice.

Interleukin-22 is elevated in the atrium and plasma of patients with atrial fibrillation and increases collagen synthesis in transforming growth factor-β1-treated cardiac fibroblasts via the JNK pathway

Our previous studies demonstrated that interleukin (IL)-22 is involved in cardiovascular diseases such as hypertension, cardiac fibrosis and aortic dissection. The purpose of the present study was to detect IL-22 expression in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Atrial tissue was collected from donors with sinus rhythm and patients with permanent AF, and the expression level of IL-22 and its receptors (IL-22R1 and IL-10R2) in both the left atrium (LA) and right atrium (RA) of each sample was detected. Blood samples were also obtained from donors with paroxysmal, persistent and permanent AF and from donors without AF history, and IL-22 levels were measured. In addition, the effects of IL-22 on collagen synthesis in TGF-β1-treated cardiac fibroblasts were investigated. IL-22R1, IL-10R2 and IL-22 expression was elevated in both the LA and RA in permanent AF patients. Elevated IL-22 expression positively correlated with the collagen areas and fibrosis marker levels in the atria of these patients. Plasma IL-22 levels were higher in AF patients compared with healthy donors and increased with increasing AF duration (from paroxysmal to persistent to permanent AF). A positive correlation was observed between IL-22 levels and TGF-β1 levels in AF patients. In vitro, recombinant mouse IL-22 treatment upregulated α-SMA, collagen I and collagen III expression in TGF-β1-treated cardiac fibroblasts. These effects were reversed by SP600125, an inhibitor of the JNK pathway. To conclude, IL-22 levels are elevated in patients with AF and may exacerbate collagen synthesis in TGF-β1-induced cardiac fibroblasts. IL-22 may also influence AF by activating the JNK pathway.

Preprocedure Application of Machine Learning and Mechanistic Simulations Predicts Likelihood of Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation Recurrence Following Pulmonary Vein Isolation

BACKGROUND

Pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) is an effective treatment strategy for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), but many experience AF recurrence and require repeat ablation procedures. The goal of this study was to develop and evaluate a methodology that combines machine learning (ML) and personalized computational modeling to predict, before PVI, which patients are most likely to experience AF recurrence after PVI.

METHODS

This single-center retrospective proof-of-concept study included 32 patients with documented paroxysmal AF who underwent PVI and had preprocedural late gadolinium enhanced magnetic resonance imaging. For each patient, a personalized computational model of the left atrium simulated AF induction via rapid pacing. Features were derived from pre-PVI late gadolinium enhanced magnetic resonance images and from results of simulations of AF induction. The most predictive features were used as input to a quadratic discriminant analysis ML classifier, which was trained, optimized, and evaluated with 10-fold nested cross-validation to predict the probability of AF recurrence post-PVI.

RESULTS

In our cohort, the ML classifier predicted probability of AF recurrence with an average validation sensitivity and specificity of 82% and 89%, respectively, and a validation area under the curve of 0.82. Dissecting the relative contributions of simulations of AF induction and raw images to the predictive capability of the ML classifier, we found that when only features from simulations of AF induction were used to train the ML classifier, its performance remained similar (validation area under the curve, 0.81). However, when only features extracted from raw images were used for training, the validation area under the curve significantly decreased (0.47).

CONCLUSIONS

ML and personalized computational modeling can be used together to accurately predict, using only pre-PVI late gadolinium enhanced magnetic resonance imaging scans as input, whether a patient is likely to experience AF recurrence following PVI, even when the patient cohort is small.

An audit of uncertainty in multi-scale cardiac electrophysiology models

Models of electrical activation and recovery in cardiac cells and tissue have become valuable research tools, and are beginning to be used in safety-critical applications including guidance for clinical procedures and for drug safety assessment. As a consequence, there is an urgent need for a more detailed and quantitative understanding of the ways that uncertainty and variability influence model predictions. In this paper, we review the sources of uncertainty in these models at different spatial scales, discuss how uncertainties are communicated across scales, and begin to assess their relative importance. We conclude by highlighting important challenges that continue to face the cardiac modelling community, identifying open questions, and making recommendations for future studies. This article is part of the theme issue 'Uncertainty quantification in cardiac and cardiovascular modelling and simulation'.

Creation and application of virtual patient cohorts of heart models

Patient-specific cardiac models are now being used to guide therapies. The increased use of patient-specific cardiac simulations in clinical care will give rise to the development of virtual cohorts of cardiac models. These cohorts will allow cardiac simulations to capture and quantify inter-patient variability. However, the development of virtual cohorts of cardiac models will require the transformation of cardiac modelling from small numbers of bespoke models to robust and rapid workflows that can create large numbers of models. In this review, we describe the state of the art in virtual cohorts of cardiac models, the process of creating virtual cohorts of cardiac models, and how to generate the individual cohort member models, followed by a discussion of the potential and future applications of virtual cohorts of cardiac models. This article is part of the theme issue 'Uncertainty quantification in cardiac and cardiovascular modelling and simulation'.

Pro-Arrhythmic Signaling of Thyroid Hormones and Its Relevance in Subclinical Hyperthyroidism

A perennial task is to prevent the occurrence and/or recurrence of most frequent or life-threatening cardiac arrhythmias such as atrial fibrillation (AF) and ventricular fibrillation (VF). VF may be lethal in cases without an implantable cardioverter defibrillator or with failure of this device. Incidences of AF, even the asymptomatic ones, jeopardize the patient's life due to its complication, notably the high risk of embolic stroke. Therefore, there has been a growing interest in subclinical AF screening and searching for novel electrophysiological and molecular markers. Considering the worldwide increase in cases of thyroid dysfunction and diseases, including thyroid carcinoma, we aimed to explore the implication of thyroid hormones in pro-arrhythmic signaling in the pathophysiological setting. The present review provides updated information about the impact of altered thyroid status on both the occurrence and recurrence of cardiac arrhythmias, predominantly AF. Moreover, it emphasizes the importance of both thyroid status monitoring and AF screening in the general population, as well as in patients with thyroid dysfunction and malignancies. Real-world data on early AF identification in relation to thyroid function are scarce. Even though symptomatic AF is rare in patients with thyroid malignancies, who are under thyroid suppressive therapy, clinicians should be aware of potential interaction with asymptomatic AF. It may prevent adverse consequences and improve the quality of life. This issue may be challenging for an updated registry of AF in clinical practice. Thyroid hormones should be considered a biomarker for cardiac arrhythmias screening and their tailored management because of their multifaceted cellular actions.

Postablation Atrial Arrhythmias

Atrial arrhythmias, including atrial tachycardia and atrial flutter, are not uncommon after prior ablation. Mechanisms for arrhythmogenesis may vary and include recurrent conduction through sites of ablation, leading to recurrence of prior ablated arrhythmias and creation of new substrate. Incidence of postablation atrial arrhythmias varies across studies and may relate to the approach to ablation, including extent of ablation performed, or to extent of substrate identified at the time of prior ablation and how that relates to the lesion set. In addition, postablation atrial arrhythmias may be more common in certain types of cardiomyopathy, including hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.