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Dhingra LS, Aminorroaya A, Camargos AP, Khunte A, Sangha V, McIntyre D, Chow CK, Asselbergs FW, Brant LCC, Barreto SM, Ribeiro ALP, Krumholz HM, Oikonomou EK, Khera R. Using Artificial Intelligence to Predict Heart Failure Risk from Single-lead Electrocardiographic Signals: A Multinational Assessment. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2024:2024.05.27.24307952. [PMID: 38854022 PMCID: PMC11160804 DOI: 10.1101/2024.05.27.24307952] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/11/2024]
Abstract
Importance Despite the availability of disease-modifying therapies, scalable strategies for heart failure (HF) risk stratification remain elusive. Portable devices capable of recording single-lead electrocardiograms (ECGs) can enable large-scale community-based risk assessment. Objective To evaluate an artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm to predict HF risk from noisy single-lead ECGs. Design Multicohort study. Setting Retrospective cohort of individuals with outpatient ECGs in the integrated Yale New Haven Health System (YNHHS) and prospective population-based cohorts of UK Biobank (UKB) and Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil). Participants Individuals without HF at baseline. Exposures AI-ECG-defined risk of left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD). Main Outcomes and Measures Among individuals with ECGs, we isolated lead I ECGs and deployed a noise-adapted AI-ECG model trained to identify LVSD. We evaluated the association of the model probability with new-onset HF, defined as the first HF hospitalization. We compared the discrimination of AI-ECG against the pooled cohort equations to prevent HF (PCP-HF) score for new-onset HF using Harrel's C-statistic, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and net reclassification improvement (NRI). Results There were 194,340 YNHHS patients (age 56 years [IQR, 41-69], 112,082 women [58%]), 42,741 UKB participants (65 years [59-71], 21,795 women [52%]), and 13,454 ELSA-Brasil participants (56 years [41-69], 7,348 women [55%]) with baseline ECGs. A total of 3,929 developed HF in YNHHS over 4.5 years (2.6-6.6), 46 in UKB over 3.1 years (2.1-4.5), and 31 in ELSA-Brasil over 4.2 years (3.7-4.5). A positive AI-ECG screen was associated with a 3- to 7-fold higher risk for HF, and each 0.1 increment in the model probability portended a 27-65% higher hazard across cohorts, independent of age, sex, comorbidities, and competing risk of death. AI-ECG's discrimination for new-onset HF was 0.725 in YNHHS, 0.792 in UKB, and 0.833 in ELSA-Brasil. Across cohorts, incorporating AI-ECG predictions in addition to PCP-HF resulted in improved Harrel's C-statistic (Δ=0.112-0.114), with an IDI of 0.078-0.238 and an NRI of 20.1%-48.8% for AI-ECG vs. PCP-HF. Conclusions and Relevance Across multinational cohorts, a noise-adapted AI model with lead I ECGs as the sole input defined HF risk, representing a scalable portable and wearable device-based HF risk-stratification strategy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lovedeep S Dhingra
- Section of Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Arya Aminorroaya
- Section of Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Aline Pedroso Camargos
- Section of Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Akshay Khunte
- Department of Computer Science, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Veer Sangha
- Section of Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA
- Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Daniel McIntyre
- Westmead Applied Research Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Westmead, Australia
| | - Clara K Chow
- Westmead Applied Research Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Westmead, Australia
- Department of Cardiology, Westmead Hospital, Sydney, Australia
| | - Folkert W Asselbergs
- Department of Cardiology, Amsterdam Cardiovascular Sciences, Amsterdam University Medical Centre, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
- Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, UK
- The National Institute for Health Research University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre, University College London, London, UK
| | - Luisa CC Brant
- Department of Internal Medicine, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
- Telehealth Center and Cardiology Service, Hospital das Clínicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Sandhi M Barreto
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Antonio Luiz P Ribeiro
- Department of Internal Medicine, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
- Telehealth Center and Cardiology Service, Hospital das Clínicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Harlan M Krumholz
- Section of Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA
- Center for Outcomes Research and Evaluation (CORE), Yale New Haven Hospital, New Haven, CT, USA
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Evangelos K Oikonomou
- Section of Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Rohan Khera
- Section of Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA
- Center for Outcomes Research and Evaluation (CORE), Yale New Haven Hospital, New Haven, CT, USA
- Section of Biomedical Informatics and Data Science, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA
- Section of Health Informatics, Department of Biostatistics, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
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Dhingra LS, Aminorroaya A, Sangha V, Camargos AP, Asselbergs FW, Brant LCC, Barreto SM, Ribeiro ALP, Krumholz HM, Oikonomou EK, Khera R. Scalable Risk Stratification for Heart Failure Using Artificial Intelligence applied to 12-lead Electrocardiographic Images: A Multinational Study. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2024:2024.04.02.24305232. [PMID: 38633808 PMCID: PMC11023679 DOI: 10.1101/2024.04.02.24305232] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/19/2024]
Abstract
Background Current risk stratification strategies for heart failure (HF) risk require either specific blood-based biomarkers or comprehensive clinical evaluation. In this study, we evaluated the use of artificial intelligence (AI) applied to images of electrocardiograms (ECGs) to predict HF risk. Methods Across multinational longitudinal cohorts in the integrated Yale New Haven Health System (YNHHS) and in population-based UK Biobank (UKB) and Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil), we identified individuals without HF at baseline. Incident HF was defined based on the first occurrence of an HF hospitalization. We evaluated an AI-ECG model that defines the cross-sectional probability of left ventricular dysfunction from a single image of a 12-lead ECG and its association with incident HF. We accounted for the competing risk of death using the Fine-Gray subdistribution model and evaluated the discrimination using Harrel's c-statistic. The pooled cohort equations to prevent HF (PCP-HF) were used as a comparator for estimating incident HF risk. Results Among 231,285 individuals at YNHHS, 4472 had a primary HF hospitalization over 4.5 years (IQR 2.5-6.6) of follow-up. In UKB and ELSA-Brasil, among 42,741 and 13,454 people, 46 and 31 developed HF over a follow-up of 3.1 (2.1-4.5) and 4.2 (3.7-4.5) years, respectively. A positive AI-ECG screen portended a 4-fold higher risk of incident HF among YNHHS patients (age-, sex-adjusted HR [aHR] 3.88 [95% CI, 3.63-4.14]). In UKB and ELSA-Brasil, a positive-screen ECG portended 13- and 24-fold higher hazard of incident HF, respectively (aHR: UKBB, 12.85 [6.87-24.02]; ELSA-Brasil, 23.50 [11.09-49.81]). The association was consistent after accounting for comorbidities and the competing risk of death. Higher model output probabilities were progressively associated with a higher risk for HF. The model's discrimination for incident HF was 0.718 in YNHHS, 0.769 in UKB, and 0.810 in ELSA-Brasil. Across cohorts, incorporating model probability with PCP-HF yielded a significant improvement in discrimination over PCP-HF alone. Conclusions An AI model applied to images of 12-lead ECGs can identify those at elevated risk of HF across multinational cohorts. As a digital biomarker of HF risk that requires just an ECG image, this AI-ECG approach can enable scalable and efficient screening for HF risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lovedeep S Dhingra
- Section of Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Arya Aminorroaya
- Section of Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Veer Sangha
- Section of Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA
- Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Aline Pedroso Camargos
- Section of Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Folkert W Asselbergs
- Department of Cardiology, Amsterdam Cardiovascular Sciences, Amsterdam University Medical Centre, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
- Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, UK
- The National Institute for Health Research University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre, University College London, London, UK
| | - Luisa CC Brant
- Department of Internal Medicine, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
- Telehealth Center and Cardiology Service, Hospital das Clínicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Sandhi M Barreto
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Antonio Luiz P Ribeiro
- Department of Internal Medicine, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
- Telehealth Center and Cardiology Service, Hospital das Clínicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Harlan M Krumholz
- Section of Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA
- Center for Outcomes Research and Evaluation (CORE), Yale New Haven Hospital, New Haven, CT, USA
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Evangelos K Oikonomou
- Section of Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Rohan Khera
- Section of Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA
- Center for Outcomes Research and Evaluation (CORE), Yale New Haven Hospital, New Haven, CT, USA
- Section of Biomedical Informatics and Data Science, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA
- Section of Health Informatics, Department of Biostatistics, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
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Di Costanzo A, Spaccarotella CAM, Esposito G, Indolfi C. An Artificial Intelligence Analysis of Electrocardiograms for the Clinical Diagnosis of Cardiovascular Diseases: A Narrative Review. J Clin Med 2024; 13:1033. [PMID: 38398346 PMCID: PMC10889404 DOI: 10.3390/jcm13041033] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/25/2023] [Revised: 02/04/2024] [Accepted: 02/08/2024] [Indexed: 02/25/2024] Open
Abstract
Artificial intelligence (AI) applied to cardiovascular disease (CVD) is enjoying great success in the field of scientific research. Electrocardiograms (ECGs) are the cornerstone form of examination in cardiology and are the most widely used diagnostic tool because they are widely available, inexpensive, and fast. Applications of AI to ECGs, especially deep learning (DL) methods using convolutional neural networks (CNNs), have been developed in many fields of cardiology in recent years. Deep learning methods provide valuable support for rapid ECG interpretation, demonstrating a diagnostic capability overlapping with specialists in the diagnosis of CVD by a classical analysis of macroscopic changes in the ECG trace. Through photoplethysmography, wearable devices can obtain single-derivative ECGs for the recognition of AI-diagnosed arrhythmias. In addition, CNNs have been developed that recognize no macroscopic electrocardiographic changes and can predict, from a 12-lead ECG, atrial fibrillation, even from sinus rhythm; left and right ventricular function; hypertrophic cardiomyopathy; acute coronary syndromes; or aortic stenosis. The fields of application are many, but numerous are the limitations, mainly associated with the reliability of the acquired data, an inability to verify black box processes, and medico-legal and ethical problems. The challenge of modern medicine is to recognize the limitations of AI and overcome them.
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Affiliation(s)
- Assunta Di Costanzo
- Division of Cardiology, Cardiovascular Research Center, University Magna Graecia Catanzaro, 88100 Catanzaro, Italy
| | - Carmen Anna Maria Spaccarotella
- Division of Cardiology, Department of Advanced Biomedical Sciences, University of Naples Federico II, 80126 Naples, Italy; (C.A.M.S.)
| | - Giovanni Esposito
- Division of Cardiology, Department of Advanced Biomedical Sciences, University of Naples Federico II, 80126 Naples, Italy; (C.A.M.S.)
| | - Ciro Indolfi
- Division of Cardiology, Cardiovascular Research Center, University Magna Graecia Catanzaro, 88100 Catanzaro, Italy
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