Matching Methods for Confounder Adjustment: An Addition to the Epidemiologist's Toolbox

Estimating the effectiveness of marked sidewalks: An application of the spatial causality approach

Various safety enhancements and policies have been proposed to enhance pedestrian safety and minimize vehicle-pedestrian accidents. A relatively recent approach involves marked sidewalks delineated by painted pathways, particularly in Asia's crowded urban centers, offering a cost-effective and space-efficient alternative to traditional paved sidewalks. While this measure has garnered interest, few studies have rigorously evaluated its effectiveness. Current before-after studies often use correlation-based approaches like regression, lacking effective consideration of causal relationships and confounding variables. Moreover, spatial heterogeneity in crash data is frequently overlooked during causal inference analyses, potentially leading to inaccurate estimations. This study introduces a geographically weighted difference-in-difference (GWDID) method to address these gaps and estimate the safety impact of marked sidewalks. This approach considers spatial heterogeneity within the dataset in the spatial causal inference framework, providing a more nuanced understanding of the intervention's effects. The simplicity of the modeling process makes it applicable to various study designs relying solely on pre- and post-exposure outcome measurements. Conventional DIDs and Spatial Lag-DID models were used for comparison. The dataset we utilized included a total of 13,641 pedestrian crashes across Taipei City, Taiwan. Then the crash point data was transformed into continuous probability values to determine the crash risk on each road segment using network kernel density estimation (NKDE). The treatment group comprised 1,407 road segments with marked sidewalks, while the control group comprised 3,097 segments with similar road widths. The pre-development program period was in 2017, and the post-development period was in 2020. Results showed that the GWDID model outperformed the spatial lag DID and traditional DID models. As a local causality model, it illustrated spatial heterogeneity in installing marked sidewalks. The program significantly reduced pedestrian crash risk in 43% of the total road segments in the treatment group. The coefficient distribution map revealed a range from -22.327 to 2.600, with over 95% of the area yielding negative values, indicating reduced crash risk after installing marked sidewalks. Notably, the impact of crash risk reduction increased from rural to urban areas, emphasizing the importance of considering spatial heterogeneity in transportation safety policy assessments.

Two Decades of CABG in the UK: A Propensity Matched Analysis of Outcomes by Conduit Choice

Background/Objectives: Grafting of LIMA to LAD has long been considered the gold-standard conduit choice for patients undergoing CABG. Despite this, the LSV remains the most used conduit by volume and some patients may not receive even a single arterial conduit. However, the outcomes in this group are not frequently explored. This study, therefore, compares in-hospital outcomes of patients who underwent CABG without any arterial conduits to those who received at least one arterial conduit. Methods: Retrospective propensity-matched database analysis of consecutive patients undergoing CABG in the UK between 1996 and 2019 using data from the National Adult Cardiac Surgery Audit. Results: 335,144 patients underwent CABG, with 6% receiving venous conduits only; matched outcomes are reported for 39,812 patients. In both unmatched and matched groups, we found a significant increase in mortality with the use of veins only (matched mortality 5.3% vs. 3.8%, p < 0.001) with estimated treatment effect for mortality OR 1.43, p < 0.001 (95% CI: 1.31-1.57). We also identified greater rates of post-operative dialysis, IABP insertion, and length of hospital stay in this group. Conclusions: We identified a significant increase in in-hospital mortality with the use of veins only compared to using at least one arterial graft to the LAD. While a single arterial graft should be prioritised wherever possible, venous revascularisation retains a critical role for specific patients. We must, therefore, continue to conduct research addressing the mechanisms underlying and propagating vein graft disease in order better to optimise outcomes for this niche patient group after CABG.

Propensity score matching for estimating a marginal hazard ratio

Propensity score matching is commonly used to draw causal inference from observational survival data. However, its asymptotic properties have yet to be established, and variance estimation is still open to debate. We derive the statistical properties of the propensity score matching estimator of the marginal causal hazard ratio based on matching with replacement and a fixed number of matches. We also propose a double-resampling technique for variance estimation that takes into account the uncertainty due to propensity score estimation prior to matching.

Verbal Learning and Memory Deficits across Neurological and Neuropsychiatric Disorders: Insights from an ENIGMA Mega Analysis

Deficits in memory performance have been linked to a wide range of neurological and neuropsychiatric conditions. While many studies have assessed the memory impacts of individual conditions, this study considers a broader perspective by evaluating how memory recall is differentially associated with nine common neuropsychiatric conditions using data drawn from 55 international studies, aggregating 15,883 unique participants aged 15-90. The effects of dementia, mild cognitive impairment, Parkinson's disease, traumatic brain injury, stroke, depression, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), schizophrenia, and bipolar disorder on immediate, short-, and long-delay verbal learning and memory (VLM) scores were estimated relative to matched healthy individuals. Random forest models identified age, years of education, and site as important VLM covariates. A Bayesian harmonization approach was used to isolate and remove site effects. Regression estimated the adjusted association of each clinical group with VLM scores. Memory deficits were strongly associated with dementia and schizophrenia (p < 0.001), while neither depression nor ADHD showed consistent associations with VLM scores (p > 0.05). Differences associated with clinical conditions were larger for longer delayed recall duration items. By comparing VLM across clinical conditions, this study provides a foundation for enhanced diagnostic precision and offers new insights into disease management of comorbid disorders.

Preoperative breast MRI positively impacts surgical outcomes of needle biopsy-diagnosed pure DCIS: a patient-matched analysis from the MIPA study

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the influence of preoperative breast MRI on mastectomy and reoperation rates in patients with pure ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS).

METHODS

The MIPA observational study database (7245 patients) was searched for patients aged 18-80 years with pure unilateral DCIS diagnosed at core needle or vacuum-assisted biopsy (CNB/VAB) and planned for primary surgery. Patients who underwent preoperative MRI (MRI group) were matched (1:1) to those who did not receive MRI (noMRI group) according to 8 confounding covariates that drive referral to MRI (age; hormonal status; familial risk; posterior-to-nipple diameter; BI-RADS category; lesion diameter; lesion presentation; surgical planning at conventional imaging). Surgical outcomes were compared between the matched groups with nonparametric statistics after calculating odds ratios (ORs).

RESULTS

Of 1005 women with pure unilateral DCIS at CNB/VAB (507 MRI group, 498 noMRI group), 309 remained in each group after matching. First-line mastectomy rate in the MRI group was 20.1% (62/309 patients, OR 2.03) compared to 11.0% in the noMRI group (34/309 patients, p = 0.003). The reoperation rate was 10.0% in the MRI group (31/309, OR for reoperation 0.40) and 22.0% in the noMRI group (68/309, p < 0.001), with a 2.53 OR of avoiding reoperation in the MRI group. The overall mastectomy rate was 23.3% in the MRI group (72/309, OR 1.40) and 17.8% in the noMRI group (55/309, p = 0.111).

CONCLUSIONS

Compared to those going directly to surgery, patients with pure DCIS at CNB/VAB who underwent preoperative MRI had a higher OR for first-line mastectomy but a substantially lower OR for reoperation.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT

When confounding factors behind MRI referral are accounted for in the comparison of patients with CNB/VAB-diagnosed pure unilateral DCIS, preoperative MRI yields a reduction of reoperations that is more than twice as high as the increase in overall mastectomies.

KEY POINTS

• Confounding factors cause imbalance when investigating the influence of preoperative MRI on surgical outcomes of pure DCIS. • When patient matching is applied to women with pure unilateral DCIS, reoperation rates are significantly reduced in women who underwent preoperative MRI. • The reduction of reoperations brought about by preoperative MRI is more than double the increase in overall mastectomies.

Relative Vaccine Effectiveness of Cell- vs Egg-Based Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccine Against Test-Confirmed Influenza Over 3 Seasons Between 2017 and 2020 in the United States

Background

Influenza vaccine viruses grown in eggs may acquire egg-adaptive mutations that may reduce antigenic similarity between vaccine and circulating influenza viruses and decrease vaccine effectiveness. We compared cell- and egg-based quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIVc and QIVe, respectively) for preventing test-confirmed influenza over 3 US influenza seasons (2017-2020).

Methods

Using a retrospective test-negative design, we estimated the relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) of QIVc vs QIVe among individuals aged 4 to 64 years who had an acute respiratory or febrile illness and were tested for influenza in routine outpatient care. Exposure, outcome, and covariate data were obtained from electronic health records linked to pharmacy and medical claims. Season-specific rVE was estimated by comparing the odds of testing positive for influenza among QIVc vs QIVe recipients. Models were adjusted for age, sex, geographic region, influenza test date, and additional unbalanced covariates. A doubly robust approach was used combining inverse probability of treatment weights with multivariable regression.

Results

The study included 31 824, 33 388, and 34 398 patients in the 2017-2018, 2018-2019, and 2019-2020 seasons, respectively; ∼10% received QIVc and ∼90% received QIVe. QIVc demonstrated superior effectiveness vs QIVe in prevention of test-confirmed influenza: rVEs were 14.8% (95% CI, 7.0%-22.0%) in 2017-2018, 12.5% (95% CI, 4.7%-19.6%) in 2018-2019, and 10.0% (95% CI, 2.7%-16.7%) in 2019-2020.

Conclusions

This study demonstrated consistently superior effectiveness of QIVc vs QIVe in preventing test-confirmed influenza over 3 seasons characterized by different circulating viruses and degrees of egg adaptation.

Changes in subclinical cardiac abnormalities 1 Year after recovering from COVID-19 in patients without clinical cardiac findings

Aim

To evaluate the subclinical cardiac involvement in COVID-19 patients without clinical cardiac evidence using cardiac MR imaging.

Material and methods

Participants recovered from COVID-19 without cardiac symptoms and no cardiovascular medical history were enrolled in a prospective cohort study. They underwent baseline cardiac MR and follow-up cardiac MR > 300 days after discharge (n = 20). The study also included healthy controls (n = 20). Extracellular volume fraction (ECV), native T1, and 2D strain data were assessed and compared.

Results

The ECV values of participants at baseline [30.0% (28.3%-32.5%)] and at follow-up [31.0% (28.0%-32.8%)] were increased compared to the healthy control group [27.0% (25.3%-28.0%)] (both p < 0.001). However, the ECV increase from baseline cardiac MR to follow-up cardiac MR was not significant (p = 0.378). There was a statistically significant difference in global native T1 between baseline [1140 (1108.3-1192.0) ms] and follow-up [1176.0 (1113.0-1206.3) ms] (p = 0.016). However, no native T1 difference was found between the healthy controls [1160.7 (1119.6-1195.4) ms] and the baseline (p = 0.394) or follow-up group (p = 0.168). The global T2 was 41(40-42) ms at follow-up which was within the normal range. In addition, We found a recovery in 2D GLS among COVID-19 participants between baseline and follow-up [-12.4(-11.7 to -14.3)% vs. -17.2(-16.2 to -18.3)%; p＜0.001].

Conclusion

Using cardiac MR myocardial tissue and strain imaging parameters, 35% of people without cardiac symptoms or clinical evidence of myocardial injury still had subclinical myocardial tissue characteristic abnormalities at 300 days, but 2D GLS had recovered.

Effect of on-pump vs. off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting in patients with non-dialysis-dependent severe renal impairment: propensity-matched analysis from the UK registry dataset

Introduction

On-pump coronary artery bypass (ONCABG) grafting in patients with a pre-existing poor renal reserve is known to carry significant morbidity and mortality. There is limited controversial evidence on the benefit of off-pump coronary artery bypass (OPCABG) grafting in these high-risk groups of patients. We compared early clinical outcomes in propensity-matched cohorts of patients with non-dialysis-dependent pre-operative severe renal impairment undergoing OPCABG vs. ONCABG, captured in a large national registry dataset.

Methods

All data for patients with a pre-operative creatinine clearance of less than 50 mL/min who underwent elective or urgent isolated OPCABG or ONCABG from 1996 to 2019 were extracted from the UK National Adult Cardiac Surgery Audit (NACSA) database. Propensity score matching was performed using 1:1 nearest neighbor matching without replacement using several baseline characteristics. We investigated the effect of ONCABG vs. OPCABG in the matched cohort using cluster-robust standard error regression.

Results

We identified 8,628 patients with severe renal impairment undergoing isolated CABG, of whom 1,142 (13.23%) underwent OPCABG during the study period. We compared 1,141 propensity-matched pairs of patients undergoing OPCABG vs. ONCABG. The median age of the matched population was 78 years in both groups, with no significant imbalance post-matching in the rest of the variables. There was no difference between OPCABG and ONCABG in in-hospital mortality rates, post-operative dialysis, and stroke rates. However, the return to theatre for bleeding or tamponade was higher in ONCABG vs. OPCABG (P > 0.02); however, OPCABG reduced the total length of stay in the hospital by 1 day (P = 0.008). After double adjustment in the matched population using cluster-robust standard regression, ONCABG did not increase mortality compared to OPCABG (OR, 1.05, P = 0.78), postoperative stroke (OR, 1.7, P = 0.12), and dialysis (OR, 0.7, P = 0.09); however, ONCABG was associated with an increased risk of bleeding (OR, 1.53, P = 0.03).

Discussion

In this propensity analysis of a large national registry dataset, we found no difference in early mortality and stroke in patients with pre-operative severe renal impairment undergoing OPCABG or ONCABG surgery; however, ONCABG was associated with an increased risk of return to theatre for bleeding and an increased length of hospital stay.

Effectiveness of residential treatment services for veterans with substance use disorders: A propensity score matching evaluation

BACKGROUND

Prior reviews of substance use disorder (SUD) treatment have found mixed support for residential level of care but are limited by methodology problems and the ethical concerns of randomizing patients with severe SUD to lower levels of care.

METHODS

The present study is the first to use a large archival SUD residential sample with a matched comparison group and one-year follow-up period to examine the benefits of residential treatment provided to adults clinically assessed as warranting SUD residential care. We used propensity score matching in our sample (N = 6177) of veterans with a SUD who were screened and accepted for Veterans Affairs (VA) SUD residential treatment between January 1st, 2019 and June 30th, 2019.

RESULTS

We found evidence that VA SUD residential treatment saves veteran lives with an average 66% all-cause mortality risk reduction during the study period (b = -1.09, exp(b) = 0.34, p <0.001). Medium-to-large residential pre- to post-treatment self-reported mental health and SUD symptom improvements (|SMDrobust| = 0.54-0.93) were sustained by one-year post-screening. These residential treatment improvements were significantly larger than estimated counterfactual outcomes across self-reported SUD and stress disorder symptoms at one-year post-screening (ps <0.001). We found mixed behavioral, service utilization, and other self-reported mental health outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that VA SUD residential treatment is an effective level of care for veterans warranting residential care particularly for SUD symptom improvements and reductions in mortality risk.

Changes in Glomerular Filtration Rate After Switching From Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate to Tenofovir Alafenamide Fumarate for Human Immunodeficiency Virus Preexposure Prophylaxis

Background

Tenofovir alafenamide fumarate (TAF) was promoted as a safer alternative to tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) for human immunodeficiency virus oral preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP). It is unknown if switching from TDF to TAF translates to improved renal function. We used electronic health record (EHR) data to assess changes in creatinine-estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) after switching from TDF to TAF.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study using EHR data from Kaiser Permanente Southern California. We identified individuals who switched from TDF to TAF between October 2019 and May 2022 and used time-varying propensity score matching to identify controls who were on TDF ("nonswitchers"). We then used Bayesian longitudinal modeling to compare differences in eGFR between switching and nonswitching scenarios.

Results

Among 5246 eligible individuals, we included 118 TDF to TAF switchers and 114 nonswitchers. Compared to nonswitchers, switchers had older age of starting TDF but similar body weights at index date. A higher proportion of switchers were White, on Medicare or Medicaid, and had dyslipidemia at index date. Switching to TAF was associated with a higher eGFR compared to staying on TDF in 3-15 months post-switch, but the differences were not statistically significant (eg, month 9 difference: 1.27 [95% credible interval, -1.35 to 3.89]). While most of the estimated changes showed eGFR increase associated with switching, most were <2 eGFR units. Sensitivity analyses to address missingness or nonadherence showed similar results.

Conclusions

Switching from TDF to TAF for PrEP was associated with a nonsignificant increase in eGFR. Findings need to be confirmed using larger cohorts.

Clinical effectiveness of robotic-assisted compared to open or video-assisted lobectomy in Germany: a real-world data analysis

OBJECTIVES

Despite robotic-assisted thoracic surgery (RATS) lobectomy being on the rise in Europe, the majority of lobectomies in Germany are still performed with an open or thoracoscopic [video-assisted thoracic surgery (VATS)] approach. Empirical evidence in favour of RATS lobectomy is inconsistent. This retrospective cohort study investigates the impact of RATS lobectomy compared with open thoracic surgery (OPEN) and VATS lobectomy on short-term outcomes in Germany using multicentre real-world data.

METHODS

Anonymized routine data from Germany from 2018 to 2020 were retrospectively analysed. These data were provided by 61 German hospitals. Propensity score matching with subsequent generalized linear models was performed for statistical analysis. Additionally, in order to test the robustness of the results, multivariable regression analyses with cluster-robust standard errors were used.

RESULTS

A total of 2498 patients with lobectomy were identified: in 1345 patients OPEN, in 983 VATS and 170 a RATS lobectomy was performed. RATS-compared to OPEN and VATS-reduced length of stay (LOS) by 28% or 4.2 days [confidence interval: 2.9; 5.4] and by 13% or 1.6 days [confidence interval: 0.2; 3.0], respectively. The risk of pneumonia was reduced by 5.3 percentage points in the RATS group compared to both OPEN and VATS (P = 0.07/0.01). RATS-compared to an open approach-reduces the risk of blood transfusions by 8.8 percentage points (P < 0.001) and LOS on the intensive care unit (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides strong support that RATS lobectomy outperforms OPEN or VATS lobectomy in terms of hospital LOS, and short-term in-hospital postoperative complications in the real-world scenario in Germany.

Implementation and impact of the World Health Organization integrated care for older people (ICOPE) program in China: a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Fragmentation of services increases health and social care burden as people live longer with higher prevalence of diseases, frailty and dependency. Local evidence for implementing person-centred integrated care is urgently needed to advance practice and policies to achieve healthy ageing.

OBJECTIVE

To test the feasibility and impact of World Health Organization's (WHO) Integrated Care for Older People (ICOPE) approach in China.

DESIGN

A randomised controlled trial examining the feasibility of implementing ICOPE approach, evaluating its impact on health outcomes and health resource utilisation.

SETTING

Primary care setting in urban and suburban communities of Chaoyang District, Beijing, China.

SUBJECTS

Community-dwelling older adults screened as at-risk of functional declines and randomised into intervention (537) and control (1611) groups between September 2020 and February 2021.

METHODS

A 6-month intervention program following WHO's ICOPE care pathways implemented by integrated care managers compared to standard available care.

RESULTS

After 1 to 1 propensity score matching, participants in intervention and control groups (totally 938) had comparable baseline characteristics, demonstrated feasibility of implementing ICOPE with satisfaction by participants (97-99%) and providers (92-93%). All outcomes showed improvements after a 6-month intervention, while statistically significant least-squares mean differences (control-intervention) in vitality (Mini-Nutritional Assessment Short Form to measure vitality, -0.21, 95% CI, -0.40-0.02), mobility (Short Physical Performance Battery to measure mobility, -0.29, 95% CI, -0.44-0.14) and psychological health (Geriatric Depression Scale five items to measure psychological health, 0.09, 95% CI, 0.03-0.14) were observed (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

It is feasible to localise and implement WHO's ICOPE approach in regions with fragmented resources such as China. Preliminary evidence supports its acceptance among key stakeholders and impact on health outcomes.

Emergency Department Bridge Model and Health Services Use Among Patients With Opioid Use Disorder

STUDY OBJECTIVES

Little is known about the effectiveness of bridge clinics as transitional care programs for people with opioid use disorder in emergency departments (EDs). We assessed the effect of bridge clinic referral on health services use among patients with opioid use disorder identified in the ED.

METHODS

We used data for individuals aged 18 years and over with active opioid use disorder and no history of medication for opioid use disorder who were administered medication for opioid use disorder while in the ED between January 2013 and August 2022. Bridge clinic referrals started in January 2021. Eligible patients after this date comprised the intervention group. The usual care group included eligible patients before bridge clinic implementation, who were a 1:1 propensity score matched to intervention patients. We estimated risk differences and 95% confidence limits for linkage to long-term care, ED use, and inpatient admission within 120 days of the index ED visit.

RESULTS

Our study population comprised 928 observations after matching. Patients referred to the bridge clinic had a higher risk of linkage to long-term care (risk differences=25%; 95% confidence limits: 20%, 30%), higher risk of ED use (risk differences=7.5%, 95% confidence limits: 1.6%, 13%), and lower risk of inpatient admission (risk differences= -1.9%, 95% confidence limits: -5.9%, 2.1%). Inpatient admission increased among patients with serious mental illness but decreased among patients without serious mental illness.

CONCLUSION

Our overall results suggest that bridge clinic referral increases linkage to long-term care. Nevertheless, qualitatively different effects on inpatient admission between patients with and without serious mental illness warrant consideration of unmet needs among patients with serious mental illness.

Age at Type 2 Diabetes Diagnosis and Cause-Specific Mortality: Observational Study of Primary Care Patients in England

OBJECTIVE

To examine the associations between age at type 2 diabetes diagnosis and the relative and absolute risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality in England.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

In this cohort study using primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, we identified 108,061 individuals with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes (16-50 years of age), matched to 829,946 individuals without type 2 diabetes. We estimated all-cause and cause-specific mortality (cancer, cardiorenal, other [noncancer or cardiorenal]) by age at diagnosis, using competing-risk survival analyses adjusted for key confounders.

RESULTS

Comparing individuals with versus without type 2 diabetes, the relative risk of death decreased with an older age at diagnosis: the hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was 4.32 (95% CI 3.35-5.58) in individuals diagnosed at ages 16-27 years compared with 1.53 (95% CI 1.46-1.60) at ages 48-50 years. Smaller relative risks by increasing age at diagnosis were also observed for cancer, cardiorenal, and noncancer or cardiorenal death. Irrespective of age at diagnosis, the 10-year absolute risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality were higher in individuals with type 2 diabetes; yet, the absolute differences were small.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the relative risk of death in individuals with versus without type 2 was higher at younger ages, the 10-year absolute risk of all investigated causes of death was small and similar in the two groups. Further multidecade studies could help estimate the long-term risk of complications and death in individuals with early-onset type 2 diabetes.

Intraoperative hypotension in noncardiac surgery patients with chronic beta-blocker therapy: A matched cohort analysis

STUDY OBJECTIVE

To explore the incidence of intraoperative hypotension in patients with chronic beta-blocker therapy, expressed as time spent, area and time-weighted average under predefined mean arterial pressure thresholds.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis of a prospective observational cohort registry.

SETTING

Patients ≥60 years undergoing intermediate- to high-risk noncardiac surgery with routine postoperative troponin measurements on the first three days after surgery.

PATIENTS

1468 matched sets of patients (1:1 ratio with replacement) with and without chronic beta-blocker treatment.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS

The primary outcome was the exposure to intraoperative hypotension in beta-blocker users vs. non-users. Time spent, area and time-weighted average under predefined mean arterial pressure thresholds (55-75 mmHg) were calculated to express the duration and severity of exposure. Secondary outcomes included incidence of postoperative myocardial injury and thirty-day mortality, myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke. Furthermore, analyses for patient subgroup and beta-blocker subtype were conducted.

MAIN RESULTS

In patients with chronic beta-blocker therapy, no increased exposure to intraoperative hypotension was observed for all characteristics and thresholds calculated (all P > .05). Beta-blocker users had lower heart rate before, during and after surgery (70 vs. 74, 61 vs. 65 and 68 vs. 74 bpm, all P < .001, respectively). Postoperative myocardial injury (13.6% vs. 11.6%, P = .269) and thirty-day mortality (2.5% vs. 1.4%, P = .055), MI (1.4% vs. 1.5%, P = .944) and stroke (1.0% vs 0.7%, P =  .474) rates were comparable. The results were consistent in subtype and subgroup analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

In this matched cohort analysis, chronic beta-blocker therapy was not associated with increased exposure to intraoperative hypotension in patients undergoing intermediate- to high-risk noncardiac surgery. Furthermore, differences in patient subgroups and postoperative adverse cardiovascular events as a function of treatment regimen could not be demonstrated.

Use of Tenofovir Alafenamide Fumarate for HIV Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis and Incidence of Hypertension and Initiation of Statins

Importance

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an important tool for preventing HIV infection. However, PrEP's impact on cardiometabolic health is understudied.

Objective

To examine the risk of incident hypertension and statin initiation among adult (age ≥18 years) health plan members starting PrEP with tenofovir alafenamide fumarate (TAF) compared with propensity score-matched adults taking tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF).

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective cohort study used electronic health records (EHRs) from Kaiser Permanente Southern California. Adult members starting PrEP in Kaiser Permanente Southern California between October 2019 and May 2022 were included. Propensity score matching with multiple imputation (50 matched data sets) was conducted to generate 1 TAF:4 TDF matched data sets with balanced baseline covariates.

Exposures

PrEP initiation with either TAF or TDF during the study period.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Incident hypertension and statin initiation within 2 years of PrEP initiation were ascertained through blood pressure and outpatient pharmacy records, respectively. Risk differences and odds ratios (ORs) were estimated using logistic regression and g-computation.

Results

A total of 6824 eligible individuals were identified (mean [SD] age, 33.9 [10.3] years; 6618 [97%] male). This pool was used to generate 2 cohorts without baseline hypertension or statin use for matching (hypertension: n = 5523; statin: n = 6149) In both cohorts, those starting PrEP with TAF were older and were more likely to be non-Hispanic White compared with those starting with TDF. In matched analysis adjusting for baseline covariates, TAF use was associated with elevated risk of incident hypertension (TAF: n = 371; risk difference, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.12-1.50]; OR, 1.64 [95% CI, 1.05-2.56]). TAF use was also associated with elevated risk of statin initiation (TAF: n = 382; risk difference, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.37-1.33]; OR, 2.33 [95% CI, 1.41-3.85]). Subgroup analyses restricted to individuals 40 years and older at PrEP initiation showed similar results with larger risk difference in statin initiation (risk difference, 4.24 [95% CI, 1.82-6.26]; OR, 3.05 [95% CI, 1.64-5.67]).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study of people taking PrEP, TAF use was found to be associated with higher incident hypertension and statin initiation compared with TDF use, especially in those 40 years or older. Continued monitoring of blood pressure and lipids for TAF users is warranted.

Impact of Antibiotic Prophylaxis on Surgical Site Infections in Cardiac Surgery

(1) Background: Cephalosporins (CA) are the first-line antibiotic prophylaxis recommended to prevent surgical site infection (SSI) after cardiac surgery. The combination of vancomycin/gentamicin (VGA) might represent a good alternative, but few studies have evaluated its efficacy in SSI prevention. (2) Methods: A single-centre retrospective study was conducted over a 13-year period in all consecutive adult patients undergoing elective cardiac surgery. Patients were stratified according to the type of antibiotic prophylaxis. CA served as the first-line prophylaxis, and VGA was used as the second-line prophylaxis. The primary endpoint was SSI occurrence at 90 days, which was defined as the need for reoperation due to SSI. (3) Results: In total, 14,960 adult patients treated consecutively from 2006 to 2019 were included in this study, of whom 1774 (12%) received VGA and 540 (3.7%) developed SSI. VGA patients had higher severity with increased 90-day mortality. Nevertheless, the frequency of SSI was similar between CA and VGA patients. However, the microbiological aetiologies were different, with more Gram-negative bacteria noted in the VGA group. (4) Conclusions: VGA seems to be as effective as CA in preventing SSI.

Noninterventional studies in the COVID-19 era: methodological considerations for study design and analysis

The global COVID-19 pandemic has generated enormous morbidity and mortality, as well as large health system disruptions including changes in use of prescription medications, outpatient encounters, emergency department admissions, and hospitalizations. These pandemic-related disruptions are reflected in real-world data derived from electronic medical records, administrative claims, disease or medication registries, and mobile devices. We discuss how pandemic-related disruptions in healthcare utilization may impact the conduct of noninterventional studies designed to characterize the utilization and estimate the effects of medical interventions on health-related outcomes. Using hypothetical studies, we highlight consequences that the pandemic may have on study design elements including participant selection and ascertainment of exposures, outcomes, and covariates. We discuss the implications of these pandemic-related disruptions on possible threats to external validity (participant selection) and internal validity (for example, confounding, selection bias, missing data bias). These concerns may be amplified in populations disproportionately impacted by COVID-19, such as racial/ethnic minorities, rural residents, or people experiencing poverty. We propose a general framework for researchers to carefully consider during the design and analysis of noninterventional studies that use real-world data from the COVID-19 era.

Matching on Generalized Propensity Scores with Continuous Exposures

In the context of a binary treatment, matching is a well-established approach in causal inference. However, in the context of a continuous treatment or exposure, matching is still underdeveloped. We propose an innovative matching approach to estimate an average causal exposure-response function under the setting of continuous exposures that relies on the generalized propensity score (GPS). Our approach maintains the following attractive features of matching: a) clear separation between the design and the analysis; b) robustness to model misspecification or to the presence of extreme values of the estimated GPS; c) straightforward assessments of covariate balance. We first introduce an assumption of identifiability, called local weak unconfoundedness. Under this assumption and mild smoothness conditions, we provide theoretical guarantees that our proposed matching estimator attains point-wise consistency and asymptotic normality. In simulations, our proposed matching approach outperforms existing methods under settings with model misspecification or in the presence of extreme values of the estimated GPS. We apply our proposed method to estimate the average causal exposure-response function between long-term PM2.5 exposure and all-cause mortality among 68.5 million Medicare enrollees, 2000-2016. We found strong evidence of a harmful effect of long-term PM2.5 exposure on mortality. Code for the proposed matching approach is provided in the CausalGPS R package, which is available on CRAN and provides a computationally efficient implementation.

Propensity score methods for observational studies with clustered data: A review

Propensity score methods are a popular approach to mitigating confounding bias when estimating causal effects in observational studies. When study units are clustered (eg, patients nested within health systems), additional challenges arise such as accounting for unmeasured confounding at multiple levels and dependence between units within the same cluster. While clustered observational data are widely used to draw causal inferences in many fields, including medicine and healthcare, extensions of propensity score methods to clustered settings are still a relatively new area of research. This article presents a framework for estimating causal effects using propensity scores when study units are nested within clusters and are nonrandomly assigned to treatment conditions. We emphasize the need for investigators to examine the nature of the clustering, among other properties, of the observational data at hand in order to guide their choice of causal estimands and the corresponding propensity score approach.

The impact of moderator by confounder interactions in the assessment of treatment effect modification: a simulation study

Background

When performed in an observational setting, treatment effect modification analyses should account for all confounding, where possible. Often, such studies only consider confounding between the exposure and outcome. However, there is scope for misspecification of the confounding adjustment when estimating moderation as the effects of the confounders may themselves be influenced by the moderator. The aim of this study was to investigate bias in estimates of treatment effect modification resulting from failure to account for an interaction between a binary moderator and a confounder on either treatment receipt or the outcome, and to assess the performance of different approaches to account for such interactions.

Methods

The theory behind the reason for bias and factors that impact the magnitude of bias is explained. Monte Carlo simulations were used to assess the performance of different propensity scores adjustment methods and regression adjustment where the adjustment 1) did not account for any moderator-confounder interactions, 2) included moderator-confounder interactions, and 3) was estimated separately in each moderator subgroup. A real-world observational dataset was used to demonstrate this issue.

Results

Regression adjustment and propensity score covariate adjustment were sensitive to the presence of moderator-confounder interactions on outcome, whilst propensity score weighting and matching were more sensitive to the presence of moderator-confounder interactions on treatment receipt. Including the relevant moderator-confounder interactions in the propensity score (for methods using this) or the outcome model (for regression adjustment) rectified this for all methods except propensity score covariate adjustment. For the latter, subgroup-specific propensity scores were required. Analysis of the real-world dataset showed that accounting for a moderator-confounder interaction can change the estimate of effect modification.

Conclusions

When estimating treatment effect modification whilst adjusting for confounders, moderator-confounder interactions on outcome or treatment receipt should be accounted for.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12874-022-01519-7.

Effectiveness of Immune Checkpoint Inhibition vs Chemotherapy in Combination With Radiation Therapy Among Patients With Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer and Brain Metastasis Undergoing Neurosurgical Resection

IMPORTANCE

Patients with brain metastases from non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) have regularly been excluded from prospective clinical trials that include therapy with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). Clinical data demonstrating benefit with ICIs, specifically following neurosurgical brain metastasis resection, are scarce.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate and compare the association of radiation therapy with ICIs vs classic therapy involving radiation therapy and chemotherapy regarding overall survival in a cohort of patients who underwent NSCLC brain metastasis resection.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

This single-center 1:1 propensity-matched comparative effectiveness study at the largest neurosurgical clinic in Germany included individuals who had undergone craniotomy with brain metastasis resection from January 2010 to December 2021 with histologically confirmed NSCLC. Of 1690 patients with lung cancer and brain metastasis, 480 were included in the study. Key exclusion criteria were small-cell lung cancer, lack of tumor cells by means of histopathological analysis on brain metastasis resection, and patients who underwent biopsy without tumor resection. The association of overall survival with treatment with radiation therapy and chemotherapy vs radiation therapy and ICI was evaluated.

EXPOSURES

Radiation therapy and chemotherapy vs radiation therapy and ICI following craniotomy and microsurgical brain metastasis resection.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Median overall survival.

RESULTS

From the whole cohort of patients with NSCLC (N = 384), 215 (56%) were male and 169 (44%) were female. The median (IQR) age was 64 (57-72) years. The 2 cohorts of interest included 108 patients (31%) with radiation therapy and chemotherapy and 63 patients (16%) with radiation therapy and ICI following neurosurgical metastasis removal (before matching). Median (IQR) follow-up time for the total cohort was 47.9 (28.2-70.1) months with 89 patients (23%) being censored and 295 (77%) dead at the end of follow-up in December 2021. After covariate equalization using propensity score matching (62 patients per group), patients receiving radiation therapy and chemotherapy after neurosurgery had significantly lower overall survival (11.8 months; 95% CI; 9.1-15.2) compared with patients with radiation therapy and ICIs (23.0 months; 95% CI; 20.3-53.8) (P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Patients with NSCLC brain metastases undergoing neurosurgical resection had longer overall survival when treated with radiation therapy and ICIs following neurosurgery compared with those receiving platinum-based chemotherapy and radiation. Radiation and systemic immunotherapy should be regularly evaluated as a treatment option for these patients.

Considerations for Transgender Population Health Research Based on US National Surveys

Transgender identities and health are highly politicized in the United States leading to restrictions on relevant data collection in national health surveillance systems. This has serious implications on transgender population health research; an urgent area of study given the systemic discrimination faced by transgender individuals and the resultant social and health inequities. In this precarious political climate, obtaining high-quality data for research is challenging and in recent years, two data sources have formed the foundation of transgender health research in the United States, namely the 2015 United States Transgender Study and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) after the launch of the optional Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity Module in 2014. While useful, there are serious challenges to using these data to study transgender health, specifically related to survey weighting methodologies, ascertainment of gender identity, and study design. In this article, we detail these challenges and discuss the strengths and weaknesses of various methodological approaches that have been implemented as well as clarify several common errors that exist in the literature. We feel that this contribution is necessary to provide accurate interpretation of the evidence that currently informs policy and priority setting for transgender population health and will provide vital insights for future studies with these now ubiquitous sources of data in the field.