Serial assessment of biomarkers and the risk of stroke or systemic embolism and bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation in the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 trial

Harnessing Risk Assessment for Thrombosis and Bleeding to Optimize Anticoagulation Strategy in Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND

 Oral anticoagulation (OAC) following catheter ablation (CA) of nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) is essential for the prevention of thrombosis events. Inappropriate application of OACs does not benefit stroke prevention but may be associated with a higher risk of bleeding. Therefore, this study aims to develop clinical data-driven machine learning (ML) methods to predict the risk of thrombosis and bleeding to establish more precise anticoagulation strategies for patients with NVAF.

METHODS

 Patients with NVAF who underwent CA therapy were enrolled from Southwest Hospital from 2015 to 2023. This study compared eight ML algorithms to evaluate the predictive power for both thrombosis and bleeding. Model interpretations were recognized by feature importance and SHapley Additive exPlanations methods. With potential essential risk factors, simplified ML models were proposed to improve the feasibility of the tool.

RESULTS

 A total of 1,055 participants were recruited, including 105 patients with thrombosis and 252 patients with bleeding. The models based on XGBoost achieved the best performance with accuracies of 0.740 and 0.781 for thrombosis and bleeding, respectively. Age, BNP, and the duration of heparin are closely related to the high risk of thrombosis, whereas the anticoagulation strategy, BNP, and lipids play a crucial role in the occurrence of bleeding. The optimized models enrolling crucial risk factors, RF-T for thrombosis and Xw-B for bleeding, achieved the best recalls of 0.774 and 0.780, respectively.

CONCLUSION

 The optimized models will have a great application potential in predicting thrombosis and bleeding among patients with NVAF and will form the basis for future score scales.

Forecasting Atrial Fibrillation: The Predictive Power of N-terminal Prohormone of Brain Natriuretic Peptide in a Five-Year Study

Introduction Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a major global health concern, and early prediction is essential for managing high-risk individuals. N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) has emerged as a crucial biomarker for predicting AF. While most studies have concentrated on cohorts already diagnosed with AF or other cardiac diseases, this research investigates the predictive value of NT-proBNP for AF development in a population without prior AF diagnosis. Methods and materials A five-year prospective observational study was conducted on 4090 individuals aged 45 to 75 with no previous diagnosis of AF. Baseline demographic characteristics, comorbid conditions, cardiac-specific measures, and NT-proBNP levels were systematically recorded. The primary endpoint was the onset of AF, confirmed through annual 12-lead ECG or 24-hour Holter monitoring. Univariate and multivariate analyses identified factors associated with AF onset. Results Out of the total population, 16.6% (679 individuals) developed AF. Notably, increased NT-proBNP levels (P=0.001), older age (P=0.001), and hypertension (P=0.001) were significantly associated with the onset of AF. The mean NT-proBNP levels in the AF group were significantly higher than in the non-AF group (P<0.001). The AF group also showed a higher mean age and a greater prevalence of hypertension (P<0.001 for both). Conclusion This study confirms the predictive value of NT-proBNP for AF onset in a non-AF population, highlighting older age and hypertension as significant risk factors for AF development. The findings underscore the potential of NT-proBNP not only as a predictive biomarker but also as a therapeutic target. These insights emphasize the potential role of NT-proBNP in early intervention and management strategies for AF, suggesting that future research should include additional variables, such as lifestyle factors and genetic predisposition, in assessing AF risk.

2024 Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics: A Report of US and Global Data From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association (AHA), in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, nutrition, sleep, and obesity) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, glucose control, and metabolic syndrome) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The AHA Heart Disease and Stroke Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, brain health, complications of pregnancy, kidney disease, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, sudden cardiac arrest, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, cardiomyopathy, heart failure, valvular disease, venous thromboembolism, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The AHA, through its Epidemiology and Prevention Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States and globally to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update with review of published literature through the year before writing. The 2024 AHA Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort in 2023 by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and AHA staff members. The AHA strives to further understand and help heal health problems inflicted by structural racism, a public health crisis that can significantly damage physical and mental health and perpetuate disparities in access to health care, education, income, housing, and several other factors vital to healthy lives. This year's edition includes additional global data, as well as data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, with an enhanced focus on health equity across several key domains.

RESULTS

Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Disturbed atrial metabolism, shear stress, and cardiac load contribute to atrial fibrillation after ablation: AXAFA biomolecule study

AIMS

Different disease processes can combine to cause atrial fibrillation (AF). Their contribution to recurrent AF after ablation in patients is not known. Cardiovascular processes associated with recurrent AF after AF ablation were determined by quantifying biomolecules related to inflammation, metabolism, proliferation, fibrosis, shear stress, atrial pressure, and others in the AXAFA biomolecule study.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Twelve circulating cardiovascular biomolecules (ANGPT2, BMP10, CA125, hsCRP, ESM1, FABP3, FGF23, GDF15, IGFBP7, IL6, NT-proBNP, and hsTnT) were quantified in plasma samples obtained prior to a first AF ablation using high-throughput, high-precision assays. Cox regression was used to identify biomolecules associated with recurrent AF during the first 3 months after AF ablation. In 433 patients (64 years [58, 70]; 33% women), baseline concentrations of ANGPT2, BMP10, hsCRP, FGF23, FABP3, GDF15, and NT-proBNP were elevated in patients with recurrent AF (120/433; 28%). After adjustment for 11 clinical features and randomized treatment, elevated NT-proBNP [hazard ratio (HR) 1.58, 95% confidence interval (1.29, 1.94)], ANGPT2 [HR 1.37, (1.12, 1.67)], and BMP10 [HR 1.24 (1.02, 1.51)] remained associated with recurrent AF. Concentrations of ANGPT2, BMP10, and NT-proBNP decreased in patients who remained arrhythmia free, but not in patients with recurrent AF, highlighting their connection to AF. The other eight biomarkers showed unchanged concentrations.

CONCLUSION

Elevated concentrations of ANGPT2, BMP10, and NT-proBNP are associated with recurrent AF after a first AF ablation, suggesting that processes linked to disturbed cardiomyocyte metabolism, altered atrial shear stress, and increased load contribute to AF after AF ablation in patients.

Reducing bleeding risk in patients on oral anticoagulation therapy

INTRODUCTION

Oral anticoagulation (OAC) significantly mitigates thromboembolism risks in atrial fibrillation (AF) and venous thromboembolism (VTE) patients yet concern about major bleeding events persist. In fact, clinically relevant hemorrhages can be life-threatening. Bleeding risk is dynamic and influenced by factors such as age, new comorbidities, and drug therapies, and should not be assessed solely based on static baseline factors.

AREAS COVERED

We comprehensively review the bleeding risk associated with OAC therapy. Emphasizing the importance of assessing both thromboembolic and bleeding risks, we present clinical tools for estimating stroke and systemic embolism (SSE) and bleeding risk in AF and VTE patients. We also address overlapping risk factors and the dynamic nature of bleeding risk.

EXPERT OPINION

The OAC management is undergoing constant transformation, motivated by the primary objective of mitigating thromboembolism and bleeding hazards, thereby amplifying patient safety throughout the course of treatment. The future of OAC embraces personalized approaches and innovative therapies, driven by advanced pathophysiological insights and technological progress. This holds promise for improving patient outcomes and revolutionizing anticoagulation practices.

Challenges of Anticoagulant Therapy in Atrial Fibrillation-Focus on Gastrointestinal Bleeding

The rising prevalence and the complexity of atrial fibrillation (AF) pose major clinical challenges. Stroke prevention is accompanied by non-negligible risks, making anticoagulant treatment an ongoing challenge for the clinician. Current guidelines recommend direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) over warfarin for stroke prevention in most AF patients, mainly due to the ease of their use. However, assessing the bleeding risk in patients receiving oral anticoagulants remains-particularly in the case of DOACs-highly challenging. Using dose-adjusted warfarin increases threefold the risk of gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB). Although the overall bleeding risk appears to be lower, the use of DOACs has been associated with an increased risk of GIB compared to warfarin. Accurate bleeding (including GIB-specific) risk scores specific for DOACs remain to be developed. Until then, the assessment of bleeding risk factors remains the only available tool, although the extent to which each of these factors contributes to the risk of bleeding is unknown. In this paper, we aim to provide a comprehensive review of the bleeding risk associated with oral anticoagulant therapy in AF patients, with a highlight on the latest insights into GIB associated with oral anticoagulation; we emphasize questions that remain to be answered; and we identify hotspots for future research.

Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2023 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association, in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, diet, and weight) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, and glucose control) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, heart failure, valvular disease, venous disease, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The American Heart Association, through its Epidemiology and Prevention Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update with review of published literature through the year before writing. The 2023 Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort in 2022 by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and American Heart Association staff members. The American Heart Association strives to further understand and help heal health problems inflicted by structural racism, a public health crisis that can significantly damage physical and mental health and perpetuate disparities in access to health care, education, income, housing, and several other factors vital to healthy lives. This year's edition includes additional COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) publications, as well as data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, with an enhanced focus on health equity across several key domains.

RESULTS

Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Relationship of diabetes, heart failure, and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide with cardiovascular outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation

AIMS

We aim to explore the relationship of heart failure (HF) and diabetes with cardiovascular (CV) death or hospitalization for HF (HHF) and to study the clinical utility of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in an unselected patient population with atrial fibrillation (AF).

METHODS AND RESULTS

Patients with AF admitted to a tertiary academic center between January 2005 and July 2019 were identified through a search of electronic health records. We used Cox regression models adjusted for age, sex, estimated glomerular filtration rate, diabetes, HF, body mass index, prior myocardial infarction, coronary artery disease, hypertension, smoking, C-reactive protein, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. To select the most informative variables, we performed a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Cox regression with 10-fold cross-validation. In total, 7412 patients (median age 70 years, 39.7% female) were included in this analysis and followed over a median of 4.5 years. Both diabetes [adjusted (Adj.) HR 1.87, 95% CI 1.55-2.25] and HF (Adj. HR 2.57, 95% CI 2.22-2.98) were significantly associated with CV death/HHF after multivariable adjustment. Compared with patients with diabetes, HF patients had a higher risk of HHF but a similar risk of CV and all-cause death. NT-proBNP showed good discriminatory performance (area under the curve 0.78, 95% CI 0.77-0.80) and the addition of NT-proBNP to the covariates used for adjustment resulted in a significant area under the curve improvement (Δ = 0.04, P < 0.001). With least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, the strongest associations for CV death/HHF were obtained for NT-proBNP [HR 1.91 per 1-SD in log-transformed biomarker], HF (HR 1.72), and diabetes (HR 1.56).

CONCLUSIONS

Diabetes and HF were independently associated with an increased risk of CV death/HHF in an unselected AF patient population, and NT-proBNP improved risk assessment. These findings suggest that AF patients with diabetes and/or HF should be managed not only for their risk of stroke and systemic embolic events but also for CV death/HHF.

Prognosis of elderly non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients stratified by B-type natriuretic peptide: ELDERCARE-AF subanalysis

BACKGROUND

B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) is a risk factor for stroke and cardiac death in patients with atrial fibrillation. We hypothesized the prognostic outcomes of very elderly non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients ineligible for standard anticoagulation treatment would vary according to BNP stratification.

METHODS

In this subanalysis of the ELDERCARE-AF trial, patients were stratified by BNP levels at enrollment, and clinical outcomes compared among BNP subgroups. Hazard ratios were adjusted for age, atrial fibrillation type, body mass index, creatine clearance, congestive heart failure, and D-dimer. BNP levels were measured using chemiluminescence enzyme immunoassays.

RESULTS

In total, 984 patients (average age: 86.6 years) not considered eligible for oral anticoagulant therapy at approved doses for stroke prevention were included. The BNP levels at enrollment were <200 (low), 200 to <400 (moderate), and ≥400 (high) pg/mL in 428, 300, and 256 patients, respectively. The number (%) of patients with stroke or systemic embolism (SSE) was 7 (1.2%), 24 (5.9%), and 28 (8.6%) in the low, moderate, and high BNP subgroups, respectively (adjusted hazard ratio 3.82, P = .0025 for low vs moderate BNP and 4.76, P = .0007 for low vs high BNP). There was no significant difference in major bleeding incidence between the BNP subgroups. Edoxaban 15 mg was associated with a consistent reduction in SSE vs placebo in all BNP subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

Stratification by BNP level was associated with the incidence of SSE for very elderly non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients ineligible for standard anticoagulation treatment, and the effect of edoxaban 15 mg was consistent across BNP levels.

Cardiac troponins and adverse outcomes in European patients with atrial fibrillation: A report from the ESC-EHRA EORP atrial fibrillation general long-term registry

BACKGROUND

Cardiac troponins (cTn) have been reported to be predictors for adverse outcomes in atrial fibrillation (AF), patients, but their actual use is still unclear.

AIM

To assess the factors associated with cTn testing in routine practice and evaluate the association with outcomes.

METHODS

Patients enrolled in the ESC-EHRA EORP-AF General Long-Term Registry were stratified into 3 groups according to cTn levels as (i) cTn not tested, (ii) cTn in range (≤99th percentile), (iii) cTn elevated (>99th percentile). The composite outcome of any thromboembolism /any acute coronary syndrome/cardiovascular (CV) death, defined as Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events (MACE) and all-cause death were the main endpoints.

RESULTS

Among 10 445 AF patients (median age 71 years, 40.3% females) cTn were tested in 2834 (27.1%). cTn was elevated in 904/2834 (31.9%) and in-range in 1930/2834 (68.1%) patients. Female sex, in-hospital enrollment, first-detected AF, CV risk factors, history of coronary artery disease, and atypical AF symptoms were independently associated with cTn testing. Elevated cTn were independently associated with a higher risk for MACE (Model 1, hazard ratio [HR] 1.74, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.40-2.16, Model 2, HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.28-2.05; Model 3 HR 1.76, 95% CI 1.37-2.26) and all-cause death (Model 1, HR 1.45, 95% CI 1.21-1.74; Model 2, HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.12-1.66; Model 3, HR 1.38, 95% CI 1.12-1.71).

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated cTn levels were associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality and adverse CV events. Clinical factors that might enhance the need to rule out CAD were associated with cTn testing.

Atrial fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia despite substantial efforts to understand the pathophysiology of the condition and develop improved treatments. Identifying the underlying causative mechanisms of AF in individual patients is difficult and the efficacy of current therapies is suboptimal. Consequently, the incidence of AF is steadily rising and there is a pressing need for novel therapies. Research has revealed that defects in specific molecular pathways underlie AF pathogenesis, resulting in electrical conduction disorders that drive AF. The severity of this so-called electropathology correlates with the stage of AF disease progression and determines the response to AF treatment. Therefore, unravelling the molecular mechanisms underlying electropathology is expected to fuel the development of innovative personalized diagnostic tools and mechanism-based therapies. Moreover, the co-creation of AF studies with patients to implement novel diagnostic tools and therapies is a prerequisite for successful personalized AF management. Currently, various treatment modalities targeting AF-related electropathology, including lifestyle changes, pharmaceutical and nutraceutical therapy, substrate-based ablative therapy, and neuromodulation, are available to maintain sinus rhythm and might offer a novel holistic strategy to treat AF.

Growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) in cardiovascular diseases: predicting bleeding after cardiac surgery and beyond that!

No Abstract.

A Review of Biomarkers for Ischemic Stroke Evaluation in Patients With Non-valvular Atrial Fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most prevalent cardiac arrhythmia worldwide and results in a significantly increased ischemic stroke (IS) risk. IS risk stratification tools are widely being applied to guide anticoagulation treatment decisions and duration in patients with non-valvular AF (NVAF). The CHA₂DS₂-VASc score is largely validated and currently recommended by renowned guidelines. However, this score is heavily dependent on age, sex, and comorbidities, and exhibits only moderate predictive power. Finding effective and validated clinical biomarkers to assist in personalized IS risk evaluation has become one of the promising directions in the prevention and treatment of NVAF. A number of studies in recent years have explored differentially expressed biomarkers in NVAF patients with and without IS, and the potential role of various biomarkers for prediction or early diagnosis of IS in patients with NVAF. In this review, we describe the clinical application and utility of AF characteristics, cardiac imaging and electrocardiogram markers, arterial stiffness and atherosclerosis-related markers, circulating biomarkers, and novel genetic markers in IS diagnosis and management of patients with NVAF. We conclude that at present, there is no consensus understanding of a desirable biomarker for IS risk stratification in NVAF, and enrolling these biomarkers into extant models also remains challenging. Further prospective cohorts and trials are needed to integrate various clinical risk factors and biomarkers to optimize IS prediction in patients with NVAF. However, we believe that the growing insight into molecular mechanisms and in-depth understanding of existing and emerging biomarkers may further improve the IS risk identification and guide anticoagulation therapy in patients with NVAF.

Stroke and Bleeding Risk Assessment in Atrial Fibrillation: Where Are We Now?

Stroke prevention with oral anticoagulants (OACs) is the cornerstone for the management of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). It is crucial to assess the stroke and bleeding risks of individual AF patients to make appropriate decisions for OAC use and achieve optimal patient care. In this review, we provided an overview on the correct use of CHA₂DS₂-VASc and HAS-BLED scores, and update important revisions about the definitions of some of the CHA₂DS₂-VASc components. Also, data about the biomarkers and potential roles of AF duration and left atrial functions in the prediction of stroke in AF were also discussed.

Most important international guidelines recommend the use of CHA₂DS₂-VASc and HAS-BLED scores for stroke and bleeding risk assessments in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients, respectively. The 2020 AF guidelines of European Society of Cardiology have revised the definition of “C: congestive heart failure (HF)” component, and now patients with either HF with reduced ejection fraction or preserved ejection fraction should be assigned 1 point. Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy was also included. Besides, the revised “V: vascular diseases” component included both prior myocardial infarction and “angiographically significant coronary artery disease”. It is important to understand that the stroke and bleeding risks of AF patients were not static and should be re-assessed regularly. A high HAS-BLED score itself should not be the only reason to withhold or discontinue oral anticoagulants, but remind physicians for the corrections of modifiable bleeding risk factors and more regular follow up. In the future, the AF duration and left atrial function may play an important role for personalized evaluation of individual stroke risk while more studies are necessary.

Update on Biomarkers Associated to Cardioembolic Stroke: A Narrative Review

Background: In the last years, several studies were conducted that evaluated biomarkers that could be helpful for cardioembolic stroke diagnosis, prognosis, and the determination of risk of stroke recurrence. Methods: We performed a narrative review of the main studies that evaluated biomarkers related to specific cardioembolic causes: atrial fibrillation, patent foramen ovale, atrial cardiomyopathy, and left ventricular wall motion abnormalities. Results: BNP and NT-proBNP are, among all biomarkers of cardioembolic stroke, the ones that have the highest amount of evidence for their use. NT-proBNP is currently used for the selection of patients that will be included in clinical trials that aim to evaluate the use of anticoagulation in patients suspected of having a cardioembolic stroke and for the selection of patients to undergo cardiac monitoring. NT-proBNP has also been incorporated in tools used to predict the risk of stroke recurrence (ABC-stroke score). Conclusions: NT-proBNP and BNP continue to be the biomarkers most widely studied in the context of cardioembolic stroke. The possibility of using other biomarkers in clinical practice is still distant, mainly because of the low methodological quality of the studies in which they were evaluated. Both internal and external validation studies are rarely performed for most biomarkers.

Atrial fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia despite substantial efforts to understand the pathophysiology of the condition and develop improved treatments. Identifying the underlying causative mechanisms of AF in individual patients is difficult and the efficacy of current therapies is suboptimal. Consequently, the incidence of AF is steadily rising and there is a pressing need for novel therapies. Research has revealed that defects in specific molecular pathways underlie AF pathogenesis, resulting in electrical conduction disorders that drive AF. The severity of this so-called electropathology correlates with the stage of AF disease progression and determines the response to AF treatment. Therefore, unravelling the molecular mechanisms underlying electropathology is expected to fuel the development of innovative personalized diagnostic tools and mechanism-based therapies. Moreover, the co-creation of AF studies with patients to implement novel diagnostic tools and therapies is a prerequisite for successful personalized AF management. Currently, various treatment modalities targeting AF-related electropathology, including lifestyle changes, pharmaceutical and nutraceutical therapy, substrate-based ablative therapy, and neuromodulation, are available to maintain sinus rhythm and might offer a novel holistic strategy to treat AF.