Stroke and coronary heart disease: predictive power of standard risk factors into old age--long-term cumulative risk study among men in Gothenburg, Sweden

Novel Size-Based High-Density Lipoprotein Subspecies and Incident Vascular Events

Background High-density lipoprotein (HDL) particle concentration likely outperforms HDL cholesterol in predicting atherosclerotic cardiovascular events. Whether size-based HDL subspecies explain the atheroprotective associations of HDL particle concentration remains unknown. Our objective was to assess whether levels of specific size-based HDL subspecies associate with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in a multiethnic pooled cohort and improve risk prediction beyond traditional atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk factors. Methods and Results Seven HDL size-based subspecies were quantified by nuclear magnetic resonance (LP4 algorithm; H1=smallest; H7=largest) among participants without prior atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities), MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), PREVEND (Prevention of Renal and Vascular Endstage Disease), and DHS (Dallas Heart Study) cohorts (n=15 371 people). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the association between HDL subspecies and incident myocardial infarction (MI) or ischemic stroke at follow-up (average 8-10 years) adjusting for HDL cholesterol and risk factors. Improvement in risk prediction was assessed via discrimination and reclassification analysis. Within the pooled cohort (median age 57 years; female 54%; Black 22%) higher H1 (small) and H4 (medium) concentrations were inversely associated with incident MI (hazard ratio [HR]/SD, H1 0.88 [95% CI, 0.81-0.94]; H4 0.89 [95% CI, 0.82-0.97]). H4 but not H1 improved risk prediction indices for incident MI. Increasing H2 and H4 were inversely associated with improved risk prediction indices for composite end point of stroke, MI, and cardiovascular death (HR/SD, H2 0.94 [95% CI, 0.88-0.99]; H4 0.91 [95% CI, 0.85-0.98]). Levels of the large subspecies (H6 and H7) were not associated with any vascular end point. Conclusions Two of 7 HDL size-based subspecies modestly improved risk prediction for MI and composite vascular end points in a large multiethnic pooled cohort. These findings support assessment of precise HDL subspecies for future studies regarding clinical utility.

Intake of legumes and cardiovascular disease: A systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis

AIMS

To summarize the evidence on the association between the intake of legumes and the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) overall, coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke, and to identify optimal intake levels for reduced disease risk through a systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis.

DATA SYNTHESIS

We have systematically searched PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science up to March, 2022 for the retrieval of intervention and observational studies (PROSPERO Reg. number: CRD42021247565). Pooled relative risks (RRs) comparing extreme categories of intake were computed using random-effects models. One-stage dose-response meta-analyses were also performed using random-effects models. 22 831 articles were screened resulting in 26 eligible observational studies (21 prospective cohort and 5 case-control studies). When comparing extreme categories of intake, the consumption of legumes was inversely associated with CVD (n = 25: RR = 0.94; 95%CI:0.89,0.99) and CHD (n = 16: RR = 0.90; 95%CI:0.85,0.96), but not with stroke (n = 9: RR = 1.00; 95%CI:0.93,1.08). We further found evidence for an inverse dose-response association with CHD, increasing in magnitude up to an intake of 400 g/week, after which the benefit seems to level-off.

CONCLUSIONS

The intake of legumes was associated with a reduced risk of CVD and CHD, but not with stroke, among individuals with the highest consumption levels. An intake level of 400 g/week seemed to provide the optimal cardiovascular benefit. Further research is needed to better understand the role of legumes in stroke subtypes.

Stroke risk in older British men: Comparing performance of stroke-specific and composite-CVD risk prediction tools

Stroke risk is currently estimated as part of the composite risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). We investigated if composite-CVD risk prediction tools QRISK3 and Pooled Cohort Equations-PCE, derived from middle-aged adults, are as good as stroke-specific Framingham Stroke Risk Profile-FSRP and QStroke for capturing the true risk of stroke in older adults. External validation for 10y stroke outcomes was performed in men (60-79y) of the British Regional Heart Study. Discrimination and calibration were assessed in separate validation samples (FSRP n = 3762, QStroke n = 3376, QRISK3 n = 2669 and PCE n = 3047) with/without adjustment for competing risks. Sensitivity/specificity were examined using observed and clinically recommended thresholds. Performance of FSRP, QStroke and QRISK3 was further compared head-to-head in 2441 men free of a range of CVD, including across age-groups. Observed 10y risk (/1000PY) ranged from 6.8 (hard strokes) to 11 (strokes/transient ischemic attacks). All tools discriminated weakly, C-indices 0.63-0.66. FSRP and QStroke overestimated risk at higher predicted probabilities. QRISK3 and PCE showed reasonable calibration overall with minor mis-estimations across the risk range. Performance worsened on adjusting for competing non-stroke deaths. However, in men without CVD, QRISK3 displayed relatively better calibration for stroke events, even after adjustment for competing deaths, including in oldest men. All tools displayed similar sensitivity (63-73 %) and specificity (52-54 %) using observed risks as cut-offs. When QRISK3 and PCE were evaluated using thresholds for CVD prevention, sensitivity for stroke events was 99 %, with false positive rate 97 % suggesting existing intervention thresholds may need to be re-examined to reflect age-related stroke burden.

Comparison of risk factors for ischemic stroke and coronary events in a population-based cohort

BACKGROUND

Although coronary events (CE) and ischemic stroke share many risk factors, there are also some important differences. The aim of this paper was to assess the association of risk factors in relation to incident CE and ischemic stroke and to evaluate the heterogeneity in patterns of risk factors between the two outcomes.

METHOD

Traditional risk factors and inflammatory markers associated with coronary events and ischemic stroke were measured in the Malmö Diet and Cancer Cohort (MDCS, n = 26 519), where a total of 2270 incident ischemic stroke and 3087 incident CE occurred during a mean follow up time 19 ± 6 years, and in relation to inflammatory markers in the cardiovascular sub-cohort (MDC-CV, n = 4795). Cox regression analysis was used to obtain hazard ratios. A modified Lunn-McNeil competing risk analysis was conducted to assess the significance of any differences in risk profiles of these outcomes.

RESULTS

Most cardiovascular risk factors were associated both with incident CE and ischemic stroke. However, current smoking, ApoB, low ApoA1, male sex and education level of ≤ 9 years of schooling were preferentially associated with CE compared to ischemic stroke. Conversely, age showed a stronger association with ischemic stroke than with CE.

CONCLUSION

CE and ischemic stroke have broadly similar risk factors profiles. However, there are some important differential associations, as well as substantial differences in the magnitude of the association. These could reflect the distinct biology of atherogenesis in different vascular beds. The difference in the determinants highlights the importance of looking at CE and ischemic stroke, two manifestations of cardiovascular disease, separately.

Stroke and death-findings from a 25-year follow-up of a cohort of employed Swedish middle-aged men of the Coeur study

Aim

In 1993, a study of 1000 automotive workers in Sweden and France looked into national differences of cardiovascular disease. Here, we evaluate the proportion of the Swedish cohort that suffered a stroke or died over a 25-year period and associated risk factors.

Subject and methods

Data from 1993 included a life-style questionnaire, a health examination and laboratory data. Figures on stroke and survival status up until the end of 2018 were collected from national registers. Survival analysis was used for both univariable and multivariable analyses to study associations between potential risk factors and stroke and death, respectively.

Results

By the end of 2018, 65 individuals had suffered a stroke and 160 had died. In the univariable analysis, we found age, systolic blood pressure, Framingham risk index and diabetes at baseline to be significantly associated with stroke during follow-up.

For death, most of the traditional risk factors were significantly associated with the outcome, as was blue-collar work and living alone. In the multivariable analysis, age and diabetes at baseline remained significantly associated with stroke, whereas eight factors (age, blue-collar work, living alone, systolic blood pressure, waist–hip ratio, smoking habits, diabetes and hypertension at baseline) were significantly associated with death during follow-up.

Conclusion

Few of the traditional risk factors were significantly associated with stroke possibly explained by low power and/or different pathogenetic mechanism than for myocardial infarction.

Partly because death occurred more often, we did find a number of potential risk factors to be significantly associated with this outcome.

Long-term risk of stroke and myocardial infarction in middle-aged men with a hypertensive response to exercise: a 44-year follow-up study

INTRODUCTION

Data on the prognostic value of hypertensive response to exercise in cardiovascular disease are limited. The aim was to determine whether SBP reactions during exercise have any prognostic value in relation to the long-term risk of stroke and myocardial infarction (MI).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A representative cohort of men from Gothenburg, Sweden, born in 1913, who performed a maximum exercise test at age 54 years, (n = 604), was followed-up for a maximum of 44 years with regard to stroke and MI.

RESULTS

Among the 604 men, the mean resting and maximum SBP was 141.5 (SD 18.8) and 212.1 (SD 24.6) mmHg, respectively. For maximum SBP, the risk of stroke increased by 34% (hazard ratio 1.34, 95% confidence interval 1.11-1.61) per 1-SD increase, while no risk increase was observed for MI. The highest risk of stroke among blood pressure groups was observed among men with a resting SBP of at least 140 mmHg and a maximum SBP of at least 210 mmHg with an hazard ratio of 2.09 (95% confidence interval 1.29-3.40), compared with men with a resting SBP of less than 140 mmHg and a maximum SBP of less than 210 mmHg, independent of smoking, blood glucose, cholesterol and BMI.

CONCLUSION

Among middle-aged men with high resting and maximum blood pressure during maximum exercise workload, an increased risk of stroke was observed but not for MI. Further studies with larger sample sizes are needed to investigate the underlying mechanisms of the increased risk of stroke among individuals with hypertensive response to exercise.

Cardiovascular Health and Stroke in Older British Men: Prospective Findings From the British Regional Heart Study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Research exploring the utility of cardiovascular health (CVH) and its Life's Simple 7 (LS7) components (body mass index, blood pressure [BP], glucose, cholesterol, physical activity, smoking, and diet) for prevention of stroke in older adults is limited. In the British Regional Heart Study, we explored (1) prospective associations of LS7 metrics and composite CVH scores with, and their impact on, stroke in middle and older age; and (2) if change in CVH was associated with subsequent stroke.

METHODS

Men without cardiovascular disease were followed from baseline recruitment (1978-1980), and again from re-examination 20 years later, for stroke over a median period of 20 years and 16 years, respectively. LS7 were measured at each time point except baseline diet. Cox models estimated hazard ratios (95% CI) of stroke for (1) ideal and intermediate versus poor levels of LS7; (2) composite CVH scores; and (3) 4 CVH trajectory groups (low-low, low-high, high-low, high-high) derived by dichotomising CVH scores from each time point across the median value. Population attributable fractions measured impact of LS7.

RESULTS

At baseline (n=7274, mean age 50 years), healthier levels of BP, physical activity, and smoking were associated with reduced stroke risk. At 20-year follow-up (n=3798, mean age 69 years) only BP displayed an association. Hazard ratios for intermediate and ideal (versus poor) levels of BP 0.65 (0.52-0.81) and 0.40 (0.24-0.65) at baseline; and 0.84 (0.67-1.05) and 0.57 (0.36-0.90) at 20-year follow-up. With reference to low-low trajectory, the low-high trajectory was associated with 40% reduced risk, hazard ratio 0.60 (0.44-0.83). Associations of CVH scores weakened, and population attributable fractions of LS7 reduced, from middle to old age; population attributable fraction of nonideal BP from 53% to 39%.

CONCLUSIONS

Except for BP, CVH is weakly associated with stroke at older ages. Prevention strategies for older adults should prioritize BP control but also enhance focus beyond traditional risk factors.

Development and validation of modified risk prediction models for cardiovascular disease and its subtypes: The Hisayama Study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Predicting cardiovascular events is of practical benefit for disease prevention. The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate an updated risk prediction model for cardiovascular diseases and its subtypes.

METHODS

A total of 2462 community residents aged 40-84 years were followed up for 24 years. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to develop risk prediction models for cardiovascular diseases, and separately for stroke and coronary heart diseases. The risk assessment ability of the developed model was evaluated, and a bootstrapping method was used for internal validation. The predicted risk was translated into a simplified scoring system. A decision curve analysis was used to evaluate clinical usefulness.

RESULTS

The multivariable model for cardiovascular diseases included age, sex, systolic blood pressure, hemoglobin A1c, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, smoking habits, and regular exercise as predictors. The models for stroke and coronary heart diseases incorporated both shared and unique variables. The developed models showed good discrimination with little evidence of overfitting (optimism-corrected Harrell's C statistics 0.726-0.777) and calibrations (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, p = 0.44-0.90). The decision curve analysis revealed that the predicted risk-based decision-making would have higher net benefit than either a CVD intervention strategy for all individuals or no individuals.

CONCLUSIONS

The developed risk prediction models showed a good performance and satisfactory internal validity, which may help understand individual risk and setting personalized goals, and promote risk stratification in public health strategies for CVD prevention.

Exploring spatial patterns of cardiovascular disease in Sweden between 2000 and 2010

AIMS

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is one of the leading causes of mortality and morbidity worldwide, including in Sweden. The main aim of this study was to explore the temporal trends and spatial patterns of CVD in Sweden using spatial autocorrelation analyses.

METHODS

The CVD admission rates between 2000 and 2010 throughout Sweden were entered as the input disease data for the analytic processes performed for the Swedish capital, Stockholm, and also for the whole of Sweden. Age-adjusted admission rates were calculated using a direct standardisation approach for men and women, and temporal trends analysis were performed on the standardised rates. Global Moran's I was used to explore the structure of patterns and Anselin's local Moran's I, together with Kulldorff's scan statistic were applied to explore the geographical patterns of admission rates.

RESULTS

The rates followed a spatially clustered pattern in Sweden with differences occurring between sexes. Accordingly, hot spots were identified in northern Sweden, with higher intensity identified for men, together with clusters in central Sweden. Cold spots were identified in the adjacency of the three major Swedish cities of Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmö.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of this study can serve as a basis for distribution of health-care resources, preventive measures and exploration of aetiological factors.

Association Between Kidney Stones and Risk of Stroke: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study

Nephrolithiasis is highly prevalent and has been associated with vascular diseases such as cardiovascular events. Few studies have comprehensively associated renal stones with stroke.This study explored whether patients with renal stones were at a higher stroke risk than those without renal stones. A national insurance claim dataset of 22 million enrollees in Taiwan was used to identify 53,659 patients with renal stones, and 214,107 were selected as age-, sex-, and comorbidity-matched controls for a 13-year follow-up.The relative stroke risk for the RS cohort was 1.06-fold higher than that for the non-RS group (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.01-1.11). Age-specific analysis revealed that the adjusted stroke risk for the RS cohort increased as age decreased, with the highest risk of 1.47-fold (95% CI = 1.10-1.96) in patients aged 20 to 34 years, followed by a 1.12-fold risk (95% CI = 1.00-1.25) in patients aged 35 to 50 years. Sex-specific analysis clarified that women in the RS group had a 1.12-fold stroke risk compared with women in the non-RS group (95% CI = 1.03-1.21). Patients who had undergone >4 surgeries had up to 42.5-fold higher risk of stroke (95% CI = 33.8-53.4).The study utilized the national database and demonstrated that patients, particularly women and the younger population, with nephrolithiasis have an increased risk of ischemic stroke development. Patients treated with medication or through surgery for RSs showed steady and higher risks of stroke than those without surgical or medical intervention.

The association between job strain and atrial fibrillation in Swedish men

Objectives

The purpose of this study was to investigate whether psychosocial stress defined as high strain based on the job demand–control model increases risk for atrial fibrillation.

Methods

The present study comprised 6035 men born between 1915 and 1925 and free from previous coronary heart disease, atrial fibrillation and stroke at baseline (1974–1977). Work-related psychosocial stress was measured using a job-exposure matrix for the job demand–control model based on occupation at baseline. The participants were followed from baseline examination until death, hospital discharge or 75 years of age, using the Swedish national register on cause of death and the Swedish hospital discharge register for any registration for atrial fibrillation, resulting in the identification of 436 cases. Data were analysed with Cox regression models with atrial fibrillation as the outcome using high strain as the explanatory variable adjusted for age, smoking, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes and socioeconomic status.

Results

There was an increased risk for atrial fibrillation in relation to high strain (HR 1.32, 95% CI 1.003 to 1.75). When the four categories of the job-strain model were included and low strain was used as reference, the risk for high strain decreased (HR 1.23, 95% CI 0.84 to 1.82).

Conclusions

Exposure to occupational psychosocial stress defined as high strain may be associated with increased risk for atrial fibrillation. The observed increase in risk is small and residual confounding may also be present.

A longitudinal general population-based study of job strain and risk for coronary heart disease and stroke in Swedish men

OBJECTIVES

The aim was to investigate whether psychosocial stress based on the job-demand-control (JDC) model increased the risk for coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke.

SETTING

Swedish men.

PARTICIPANTS

The Primary Prevention Study (PPS) comprises 6070 men born between 1915 and 1925 free from previous history of CHD and stroke at baseline (1974-1977). Psychosocial workplace exposure was assessed using a job-exposure matrix (JEM) for the JDC model based on occupation at baseline. The participants were followed from baseline examination, until death, until hospital discharge or until 75 years of age, whichever occurred first, using the Swedish national register on cause of death and the Swedish hospital discharge register for non-fatal and fatal stroke and CHD events. Cox regression models were used with stroke or CHD as the outcome, using JDC model and age as explanatory variables, as well as stratified models with regard to smoking, self-reported stress, socioeconomic status, obesity, hypertension and diabetes.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Risk for stroke and CHD.

RESULTS

There was an increased risk (HR) for CHD in relation to high strain (HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.70). The risk was further increased among ever-smokers and among blue-collar workers. There was a relation between low control and increased risk for CHD (HR 1.19, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.35). There was no increased risk for stroke in any of the JDC categories.

CONCLUSIONS

Exposure to occupational psychosocial stress defined as job strain or low control increased the risk for CHD, especially among smokers and blue-collar workers. There was no increased risk for stroke in any of the JDC categories.