The Effect of Latent Tuberculosis Infection on Ovarian Reserve and Pregnancy Outcomes among Infertile Women Undergoing Intrauterine Insemination: A Retrospective Cohort Study with Propensity Score Matching

Latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) widely exists in patients with unexplained infertility, and whether LTBI would affect the ovarian reserve and pregnancy outcome of infertile women undergoing intrauterine insemination (IUI) is still unknown. A single-center, retrospective, cohort study was designed that included infertile women undergoing IUI at the Department of Reproductive Medicine, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology in Wuhan, China, from January 2018 to December 2020. The primary outcomes of this study were ovarian reserve and live birth rate. Secondary outcomes included pregnancy outcomes and maternal and neonatal complications. As a result, 3066 IUI cycles were eventually enrolled in this study. Of these women, 9.6% (295/3066) had LTBI evidence. After propensity score matching (PSM), there was no significant difference in the baseline between the LTBI and non-LTBI groups. The data showed that women who had LTBI had trends toward lower biochemical pregnancy rates (12.9% vs. 17.7%, p-value 0.068), lower clinical pregnancy rates (10.8% vs. 15.1%, p-value 0.082) and lower live birth rates (8.1% vs. 12.1%, p-value 0.076), with no significant differences. There were also no significant differences in ovarian reserve and other secondary outcomes between the two groups. In conclusion, there were no significant differences in ovarian reserve, perinatal or neonatal complications between women with and without LTBI. Women with LTBI tended to have worse pregnancy outcomes after receiving IUI, but the difference was not significant.

Risk factors for the development of tuberculosis among the pediatric population: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Pediatric tuberculosis is a major cause of mortality and morbidity in children due to high transmission, poor diagnostic tools, and various respiratory diseases mimicking TB. Identifying risk factors will provide evidence for clinicians to strongly relate their diagnosis to the associated pathology. Studies were retrieved from PubMed, Embase, and Google Scholar, systematically reviewed, and meta-analyzed for various risk factors and their association with pediatric TB. Meta-analysis depicted that four out of eleven risk factors were significant-contact with known TB cases (OR 6.42 [3.85,10.71]), exposure to smoke (OR 2.61 [1.24, 5.51]), overcrowding in the houses (OR 2.29 [1.04, 5.03]), and, poor household conditions (OR 2.65 [1.38, 5.09]). Although significant odds ratio estimates were obtained, we observed heterogeneity in the studies included.    Conclusion: The study findings demand the constant screening of risk factors such as contact with known TB cases, exposure to smoke, overcrowding, and, poor household conditions for the development of pediatric TB. What is Known: • Knowledge of the risk factors of a disease is of utmost importance in the planning and institution of its control measures. Well-established risk factors in the occurrence of TB in the pediatric group are HIV positivity, older age and close contact with a known case of TB. What is New: • In addition to what is already known; this review and meta-analysis has identified exposure to indoor smoking, overcrowding and poor household conditions as important risk factors for developing pediatric TB. • Implications of the study: The findings highlight that in addition to routine contact screening for the pediatric group, the children living in poor household conditions and getting exposed to passive indoor smoking demand more attention to prevent the development of pediatric TB.

Analysis of Factors Affecting the Rate of Latent Tuberculosis Infection and Management in Pediatrics

The incidence of tuberculosis remains high in South Korea; the management of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) has become the prime target for reducing the infection rate. The management of pediatric LTBI is especially crucial because children can serve as a long-term source of infection upon developing active tuberculosis. Therefore, it is important to assess pediatric LTBI using contact investigation and follow-up. We conducted a retrospective study on children aged between 0 and 18 years who visited our hospital for tuberculosis contact screening from February 2012 to February 2021. Tuberculosis index cases and their clinical characteristics were also reviewed retrospectively. A total of 350 children were investigated, and 68 of 247 (27.5%) were diagnosed with LTBI. The rate of LTBI (r = 7.98, p < 0.001) and the risk of loss to follow-up (r = 27.038, p < 0.001) were higher in cases with close household contact. Sputum (r = 10.992, p < 0.001) and positive acid-fast bacillus (AFB) stain (r = 4.458, p = 0.001) in tuberculosis index cases were related to the diagnosis of LTBI in pediatric contacts. Active management is needed for tuberculosis screening in pediatric contacts, especially when the contacts are older and the index case is within the family, and when the index case has sputum and has tested positive for AFB smear.

Strategies to detect and manage latent tuberculosis infection among household contacts of pulmonary TB patients in high TB burden countries - a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To summarise latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) management strategies among household contacts of bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) patients in high-TB burden countries.

METHODS

PubMed/MEDLINE (NCBI) and Scopus were searched (January 2006 to December 2021) for studies reporting primary data on LTBI management. Study selection, data management and data synthesis were protocol-driven (PROSPERO-CRD42021208715). Primary outcomes were the proportions of LTBI, initiating and completing tuberculosis preventive treatment (TPT). Reported factors influencing the LTBI care cascade were qualitatively synthesised.

RESULTS

From 3694 unique records retrieved, 58 studies from 23 countries were included. Most identified contacts were screened (median 99%, interquartile range [IQR] 82%-100%; 46 studies). Random-effects meta-analysis yielded pooled proportions for: LTBI 41% (95% confidence interval [CI] 33%-49%; 21,566 tested contacts); TPT initiation 91% (95% CI 79%-97%; 129,573 eligible contacts, 34 studies); TPT completion 65% (95% CI 54%-74%; 108,679 TPT-initiated contacts, 28 studies). Heterogeneity was significant (I²  ≥ 95%-100%) and could not be explained in subgroup analyses. Median proportions (IQR) were: LTBI 44% (28%-59%); TPT initiation 86% (60%-100%); TPT completion 68% (44%-82%). Nine broad themes related to diagnostic testing, health system structure and functions, risk perception, documentation and adherence were considered likely to influence the LTBI care cascade.

CONCLUSION

The proportions of household contacts screened, detected with LTBI and initiated on TPT, though variable was high, but the proportions completing TPT were lower indicating current strategies used for LTBI management in high TB burden countries are not sufficient.

Prevalence of latent tuberculosis infection and incidence of active tuberculosis in school close contacts in Shanghai, China: Baseline and follow-up results of a prospective cohort study

Background

The management of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is a key action for the realization of the “End tuberculosis (TB) Strategy” worldwide, and it is important to identify priority populations. In this prospective cohort study, we evaluated the prevalence of LTBI and incidence of active TB among close contacts and explored the suitable TB control strategy in schools.

Methods

We designed a cohort with 2 years of follow-up, recruiting freshman/sophomore TB patients’ close contacts from three administrative districts in Shanghai. These were chosen based on different levels of TB incidence reported in 2019. Questionnaires were included and all participants received both tuberculin skin test (TST) and QuantiFERON-TB Gold (QFT) at baseline, then tracked the outcomes of them during the follow-up period.

Results

The prevalence of LTBI was 4.8% by QFT. Univariate analysis showed that the risk of LTBI was higher in those contacting bacteriologically confirmed patients or did not have BCG scars, including smokers. The risk increased with poor lighting and ventilation conditions at contact sites. Multivariate analysis showed that those contacting with bacteriologically confirmed patients (OR=4.180; 95%CI, 1.164-15.011) or who did not have BCG scars (OR=5.054; 95%CI, 2.278-11.214) had a higher risk of being LTBI, as did the current smokers (OR=3.916; 95%CI, 1.508-10.168) and those who had stopped smoking (OR=7.491; 95%CI, 2.222-25.249). During the 2-year follow-up period, three clinically diagnosed cases of TB were recorded, the 2-year cumulative incidence was 0.4% (95%CI 0.1-1.2), the median duration for TB occurrence was 1 year, the incidence rate of active TB was 2.0 per 1000 person-years with a total of 1497.3 observation person-years. For those LTBI, no one initiated preventive treatment, in the QFT (+) cohort, 1 TB case was observed, 71 person-years with an incidence rate of 14.1 14.1 (95%CI 2.5-75.6) per 1000 person-years, in the TST (+++) cohort, 2 TB cases were observed 91.5 person-years with an incidence rate of 21.9 (95%CI 6.0-76.3) per 1000 person-years.

Conclusions

The results suggest that school close contacts are one of the key populations for LTBI management. Measures should be taken to further reduce the prevalence of LTBI and the incidence of active TB among them.

Prevalence of Latent Tuberculosis Infection Among Healthy Young Children and Adolescents and a Two-step Approach for the Diagnosis of Tuberculosis Infection in Chengdu, China

BACKGROUND

China has a high burden of tuberculosis and latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI). The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of LTBI among healthy young children and adolescents and test a 2-step approach to explore the threshold for the diagnosis of tuberculosis infection in Chengdu, China.

METHODS

Healthy preschool children and school-going children in Chengdu, Sichuan Province, were screened for LTBI using the tuberculin skin test (TST). Preschool children with TST ≥ 5 mm also underwent interferon-γ release assay (IGRA) to explore the threshold of this 2-step approach.

RESULTS

In total, 5667 healthy young children and adolescents completed TST test between July 2020 and January 2021 and were included in the present analysis. The age of the participants ranged from 2.4 to 18 years (median 7.25 ± 4.514 years), of which 2093 (36.9%) were younger than 5 years. The overall prevalence of LTBI was 6.37% and 6.64% in children younger than 5 years old. Fourteen of the 341 preschool children with TST ≥5 mm were interferon-γ release assay positive, of which 4 showed a TST result of 5-10 mm, and 6 preschool children received preventive treatment for LTBI.

CONCLUSIONS

Healthy young children and adolescents should also be considered as important target populations for LTBI screening. TST can be recommended for first-line screening as part of a 2-step approach for LTBI screening using a positive threshold of 5 mm.

Prevalence and determinants of TB infection in a rural population in northeastern Myanmar

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) is a major human threat, as evidenced by the large numbers of cases and deaths, particularly in developing countries with poor economic and educational statuses. Myanmar has one of the highest TB burdens in the world, but no TB information is available for people living in the rural northeastern regions of Myanmar. The present study estimated the prevalence of TB and identified factors associated with TB infection in people living in rural communities in Shan State.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was performed to gather information from participants. People aged 18-59 years who lived in the three areas with the highest numbers of TB cases in Shan State in northeastern Myanmar were included in the study population. A simple random method was used to select the sample from the villages. A validated questionnaire was used for data collection in face-to-face interviews after obtaining signed informed consent from the selected participants. The Mantoux tuberculin skin test (TST) was administered to detect TB infection, and a result that was 10 mm or greater after 48 h was considered positive. Chi-squared tests and logistic regression were used to identify the associations between the variables at a significance level of α = 0.05.

RESULTS

A total of 303 participants were recruited for the study; 64.7% were females, and the mean age was 37 years (SD = 12.5). Most participants were Burmese (25.4%), and 14.95% were Shan. Sixty-three participants (20.8%) had a positive TST. Four variables were associated with TB infection in the multivariate model. Males had a greater chance of TB infection than females (AOR = 2.51; 95% CI = 1.32-4.76). Participants who were ever married had a greater chance of TB infection than participants who were single (AOR = 3.93; 95% CI = 1.18-13.00). Participants who used wood and charcoal as their main sources of energy for cooking had a greater chance of TB infection than participants who used electricity (AOR = 4.23; 95% CI = 1.25-9.64). Participants who had a low level of TB prevention and care knowledge had a greater chance of TB infection than participants with a high level of TB prevention and care knowledge (AOR = 4.49; 95% CI = 1.88-10.72).

CONCLUSIONS

Public health programs that focus on improving knowledge of TB prevention and care and avoiding the use of wood and charcoal as the primary sources of energy for cooking, particularly in males and ever-married individuals, are urgently needed.

An exploration of health workers risks of contracting tuberculosis in the workplace: a qualitative study

BACKGROUND

To explore the perceptions of health workers on the risks of contracting tuberculosis at Namwala District Hospital. Tuberculosis literature indicates that health workers are at risk of contracting tuberculosis while conducting their daily duties in the workplace. This is mainly attributed to low tuberculosis awareness. It is with this empirical evidence that this study was conducted to further explore health workers risky behavior, attitude and practices that expose them to tuberculosis infection when on duty and eventually generate effective health promotion and public health interventions.

METHODS

Semi-structured interviews lasting between 35 to 45 min were conducted to all the participants. A purposive sampling technique was used to recruit ten participants for this study. All the ten interviews were audio recorded in order to enhance consistency during data analysis process. Interview materials were transcribed verbatim, coded and themes generated to form thematic networks. Data analysis was conducted using thematic analysis strategy.

RESULTS

Four themes were identified; 1. Health workers personal safety: participants reported wearing uniforms and gloves but they were not putting-on face masks hence, exposing themselves to tuberculosis infection. 2. Tuberculosis infection prevention practices: hand washing was described by many participants as a universal method of protecting health staff from the risks of contracting tuberculosis at the hospital however, few health workers frequently washed their hands after attending to tuberculosis patients. 3. Health workers working environment: the working environment at the hospital was not conducive for both health workers and patients due to poor ventilation, unhygienic conditions, overcrowding and the lack of an isolation ward. 4. Health promotion: awareness on tuberculosis was reported to be low with no refresher training being conducted for health workers at the hospital.

CONCLUSION

The risks of contracting tuberculosis by health workers at Namwala District Hospital did exist hence, a need of advocating for tuberculosis awareness for health workers through appropriate health promotion interventions. Health policy should focus on continuous health promotion activities on prevention and control of tuberculosis in health facilities and communities.

Management of latent tuberculosis infection in China: Exploring solutions suitable for high-burden countries

China is one of the countries with a high burden of tuberculosis (TB) and latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI). It was recently estimated that China had the highest LTBI burden in the world, with approximately 350 million persons living with the infection. The prevalence of LTBI in China is overestimated by tuberculin skin test (TST) as compared to interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA). A population-based study found that IGRA positivity rates ranged between 13.5% and 19.8%. The annual TB infection rate in the rural population was 1.5% based on persistent positive IGRA results in converters. The development of active TB from LTBI in the general rural population was 0.87 per 100 person-years in the first 2 years among individuals who newly converted to IGRA-positive. TB control in students has been paid more attention by the government, which also improved LTBI management among students in close contact with active TB patients. A 3-month regimen of twice-weekly rifapentine plus isoniazid (3H₂P₂, both with a maximum dose of 600 mg) has been practiced for LTBI treatment in China for years. With respect to LTBI management in populations using immune inhibitors, an expert consensus on TB prevention and management in tumor necrosis factor antagonist application was published in 2013 in China. In order to achieve the global goals of the End TB Strategy, China needs innovative ideas and technologies to reduce the TB incidence by management of LTBI, such as the identification of populations for LTBI testing and treatment, selecting and developing reliable LTBI tests, exploring safe and effective preventive treatment tools, and establishing a set of optimized LTBI management systems.

The global prevalence of latent tuberculosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

In 1999, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimated that one-third of the world's population had latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI), which was recently updated to one-fourth. However, this is still based on controversial assumptions in combination with tuberculin skin test (TST) surveys. Interferon-γ release assays (IGRAs) with a higher specificity than TST have since been widely implemented, but never used to estimate the global LTBI prevalence.We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of LTBI estimates based on both IGRA and TST results published between 2005 and 2018. Regional and global estimates of LTBI prevalence were calculated. Stratification was performed for low, intermediate and high TB incidence countries and a pooled estimate for each area was calculated using a random effects model.Among 3280 studies screened, we included 88 studies from 36 countries with 41 IGRA (n=67 167) and 67 TST estimates (n=284 644). The global prevalence of LTBI was 24.8% (95% CI 19.7-30.0%) and 21.2% (95% CI 17.9-24.4%), based on IGRA and a 10-mm TST cut-off, respectively. The prevalence estimates correlated well to WHO incidence rates (Rs=0.70, p<0.001).In the first study of the global prevalence of LTBI derived from both IGRA and TST surveys, we found that one-fourth of the world's population is infected. This is of relevance, as both tests, although imperfect, are used to identify individuals eligible for preventive therapy. Enhanced efforts are needed targeting the large pool of latently infected individuals, as this constitutes an enormous source of potential active tuberculosis.

Risk factors for active tuberculosis in 938 QuantiFERON-positive schoolchildren in Mongolia: a community-based cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

There is controversy regarding the relative influence of 'exogenous' versus 'endogenous' factors on the risk of progression from latent tuberculosis infection to active tuberculosis (TB) disease in children.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional analysis to identify risk factors for active tuberculosis in QuantiFERON®-TB Gold (QFT-G)-positive children aged 6-13 years attending 18 schools in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. Children underwent clinical and radiological screening for active tuberculosis, and data relating to potential risk factors for disease progression were collected by questionnaire and determination of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) concentrations. Risk ratios were calculated using generalized estimating equations with adjustment for potential confounders.

RESULTS

129/938 (13.8%) QFT-positive children were diagnosed with active tuberculosis. Risk of active tuberculosis was independently associated with household exposure to pulmonary TB (adjusted risk ratio [aRR] 2.40, 95% CI 1.74 to 3.30, P < 0.001), month of sampling (adjusted risk ratio [aRR] for March-May vs. June-November 3.31, 95% CI 1.63 to 6.74, P < 0.001; aRR for December-February vs. June-November 2.53, 95% CI 1.23 to 5.19, P = 0.01) and active smoking by the child (aRR 5.23, 95% CI 2.70 to 10.12, P < 0.001). No statistically significant independent association was seen for age, sex, socio-economic factors, presence of a Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) scar, tobacco exposure or vitamin D status.

CONCLUSIONS

Household exposure to active TB, winter or spring season and active smoking were independently associated with risk of active tuberculosis in QFT-positive children. Our findings highlight the potentially high yield of screening child household contacts of infectious index cases for active tuberculosis in low- and middle-income countries.

Tuberculosis Transmission in Households and Classrooms of Adolescent Cases Compared to the Community in China

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the link between the history of exposure to tuberculosis (TB) in the household and diagnosed TB cases at school, and to compare the detection rate of active TB among household contacts and classroom contacts of adolescent TB cases with the rates among contacts of healthy controls. From November 2016 to December 2017, a prospective matched case-control study was conducted using passively identified index adolescent student cases from the TB surveillance system and healthy controls (matched by county, school type, sex, age and ethnicity). Contacts in households and classrooms of index cases and of controls were investigated. Matched tabulation of 117 case-control pairs revealed exposure to TB in the household as a strong risk factor (odds ratio (OR) = 21.0, 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.4, 868.6). Forty-five (case detection rate 0.69%) and two (case detection rate 0.03%) new active TB cases were detected among 6512 and 6480 classroom contacts of the index cases and controls, respectively. Having an index case in the classroom significantly increased the risk of classmates contracting active TB (OR = 22.5, 95% CI: 5.9, 191.4). Our findings suggested that previous exposure to TB in the household could lead a child to catch TB at school, then spread TB to classmates.

Risk factors for latent tuberculosis infection in children in South Korea

OBJECTIVES

In South Korea, latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) screening is a critical strategy associated with efforts to reduce the incidence of tuberculosis (TB). Currently, only children with a known history of TB contact are considered as pediatric high-risk groups for LTBI, and consequently, LTBI screening is only provided to these children. However, to reduce the incidence of TB, the high-risk groups that undergo LTBI screening should be expanded. This study aimed to assess the risk factors for LTBI among children living in South Korea with no known history of TB contact for the identification of additional high-risk groups. We investigated the risk factors for LTBI among US visa applicant children, who undergo LTBI screening regardless of their TB contact history.

METHODS

We obtained data on demographic characteristics, medical history, Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccination history, and results of LTBI screening for children aged 2-14 years. A tuberculin skin test was used for the diagnosis of LTBI, and an induration of 10 mm or greater was used to define a positive test. Adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated to determine the association between clinical and demographic variables and LTBI.

RESULTS

Of the 1,664 study participants, 91 (5.5%) had LTBI. The binary logistic regression analysis showed that children born in high TB burden foreign countries had the highest odds of LTBI when considering all the risk factors investigated. Increasing age, absence of BCG vaccination, and a previous diagnosis of asthma were also significant risk factors for LTBI.

CONCLUSION

These results indicate that children born in high TB burden foreign countries should be considered a high-risk group for LTBI in South Korea; the inclusion of these children in LTBI screening should be considered.

Prevalence of latent tuberculosis infection among coal workers' pneumoconiosis patients in China: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the prevalence of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) among coal workers' pneumoconiosis (CWP) patients. To estimate the prevalence of LTBI and identify its associated risk factors among CWP patients.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted to assess the prevalence of LTBI. Participants were screened for active TB or a history of TB by X-ray and those that underwent QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube (QFT) test. A standardized questionnaire was completed and risk factors were assessed for acquiring TB. Log-binomial regression was used to estimate the LTBI prevalence ratio (PR) in relation to risk factors.

RESULTS

Of 244 individuals with CWP (median age 67 years; all male), 162 (66.4%) were QFT positive. In Multivariate analysis, poor workplace ventilation (adjusted prevalence ratio [APR] = 1.26) and intake of fruits regularly (≥4 days of every week) (APR = 0.81) (all p < 0.05) were associated with a decreased risk of QFT.

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed a high prevalence of LTBI among individuals with CWP in China. Poor workplace ventilation may be an important contributing factor for LTBI. Regular monitoring and dust control measures need to be improved in workplaces to ensure the safety of workers. Moreover, intake of fruits regularly may be a protective factor for LTBI. However, the effect of fruits should be further studied.

Tuberculosis infection in rural labor migrants in Shenzhen, China: Emerging challenge to tuberculosis control during urbanization

During China’s urbanization process, rural labor migrants have been suggested to be one important bridge population to change urban-rural distribution on tuberculosis (TB) burden. Aiming to estimate the prevalence of TB infection and to track the active disease development in rural labor migrants, a prospective study was conducted in Shenzhen city, southern China. TB infection was detected using interferon-γ release assay (IGRA). Here we mainly report the characteristics of TB infection in the study population based on the baseline survey. A total of 4,422 eligible participants completed baseline survey in July 2013. QuantiFERON (QFT) positivity rates 17.87% (790/4,422) and was found to be consistent with the local TB epidemic of the areas where the participants immigrated from. Age, smoking, residence registered place, and present of BCG scars were found to be independently associated with QFT positivity. Additionally, evidence for interaction between smoking and age was observed (p for likelihood ratio test < 0.001). Our results suggested that the development of TB control strategy including latent TB infection management should pay more attention to the rural flowing population due to their high mobility and higher prevalence of TB infection.

The prevalence of latent tuberculosis infection in rural Jiangsu, China

OBJECTIVES

Diagnosis and interventional treatment of latent tuberculosis (TB) infection (LTBI) are important components in tuberculosis control. But systematic studies regarding the epidemic of LTBI are still rare in China. The objective of this study was to assess the prevalence and risk factors associated with LTBI based on the results of a domestic TB-specific gamma interferon (IFN-γ) release assay (TB-IGRA) in rural Jiangsu, China.

STUDY DESIGN

Cross-sectional study of subjects registered in eight villages in Jiangsu, China.

METHODS

This study was conducted in 2012 in eight villages. After recruitment, individuals with active TB or a history of TB were excluded. The TB-IGRA was performed for diagnosis of LTBI.

RESULTS

2169 of 2185 subjects met the requirement and were analysed in this study. 524 (24.3%) had a positive result, and positive rate gradually increased with age (P for trend <0.001). Multivariate analyses showed that increasing age, male gender and a history of TB exposure were risk factors associated with LTBI. Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination did not reduce the risk of TB infection in participants (aged ≥20 years).

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of this study demonstrate that the prevalence of LTBI in China might be overestimated by tuberculin skin test compared with IFN-γ release assay (IGRA). The degree of TB exposure is related to Mycobacterium tubercuium (MTB) infection, and BCG vaccination offers little protection against MTB infection in adults. The early and effective detection and treatment of active TB patients, and screening and intervention for LTBI patients with a high risk of developing active TB could be cost-effective methods for TB control in China.

Spatial-Temporal Epidemiology of Tuberculosis in Mainland China: An Analysis Based on Bayesian Theory

OBJECTIVE

To explore the spatial-temporal interaction effect within a Bayesian framework and to probe the ecological influential factors for tuberculosis.

METHODS

Six different statistical models containing parameters of time, space, spatial-temporal interaction and their combination were constructed based on a Bayesian framework. The optimum model was selected according to the deviance information criterion (DIC) value. Coefficients of climate variables were then estimated using the best fitting model.

RESULTS

The model containing spatial-temporal interaction parameter was the best fitting one, with the smallest DIC value (-4,508,660). Ecological analysis results showed the relative risks (RRs) of average temperature, rainfall, wind speed, humidity, and air pressure were 1.00324 (95% CI, 1.00150-1.00550), 1.01010 (95% CI, 1.01007-1.01013), 0.83518 (95% CI, 0.93732-0.96138), 0.97496 (95% CI, 0.97181-1.01386), and 1.01007 (95% CI, 1.01003-1.01011), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The spatial-temporal interaction was statistically meaningful and the prevalence of tuberculosis was influenced by the time and space interaction effect. Average temperature, rainfall, wind speed, and air pressure influenced tuberculosis. Average humidity had no influence on tuberculosis.