Heterogeneous Long-Term Trajectories of Dependency in Older Adults: The PAQUID Cohort, a Population-Based Study over 22 years

Differences between subjective and disability health expectancies across ages in older adults

Health expectancies (HEs) have become a key indicator for monitoring healthy aging. So far, they have mainly been calculated based on functional rather than subjective health measures. Yet, by integrating several dimensions (medical, social, and cultural), subjective health is also an important measure of an older person's health status. In this study, we first estimated HEs using self-rated health (SRH), by age and sex. Second, we compared these results to those obtained when using a disability measure. We used pooled data from three prospective population-based cohorts including adults aged 65 years and over, living in Southwestern France (N = 4468). SRH was assessed using a single question and disability was measured using the Lawton scale. Healthy/Unhealthy Life Expectancies (HLE/UHLE) and Disability/Disability-Free Life Expectancies (DLE/DFLE) were estimated using the Interpolated Markov Chain program (IMaCh), separately in men and women. Women lived longer than men, with similar HLE but longer UHLE at all ages. The proportion of HLE in total LE decreased with age for both sexes and for women, it became smaller than the proportion of UHLE from age 73 onward. In both sexes, while the DLE was shorter than the UHLE in the youngest, a reversal was observed with advancing age. This change occurred earlier in women. Our study supports that SRH and disability showed different aging patterns, with sex and age differences. From a public health perspective, SRH and disability indicators appeared not interchangeable as they uncovered complementary but different information on the needs of aging people.

Social participation and functional disability trajectories in the last three years of life: The Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study

BACKGROUND

Functional disability has various patterns from onset until death. Although social participation is a known protective factor against functional disability among older individuals, it is unclear whether social participation is associated with the trajectory patterns of functional disability prior to death. This study assessed the association between social participation, specifically in horizontal and vertical groups, and the trajectories of functional disability prior to death.

METHODS

We used survey data from the 2010 Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study for functionally independent older adults combined with public long-term care insurance system data from 2010 to 2016 (n = 4,502). The outcome variables included five previously identified trajectory patterns using group-based trajectory modeling. As the explanatory variable, we used three definitions of social participation: any group, horizontal group (e.g., sports, hobbies), or vertical group (e.g., political, religious), at least once a month. We used a multinomial logistic regression analysis to calculate odds ratios with 95 % confidence intervals for the identified trajectory patterns.

RESULTS

Participation in any groups was significantly less likely to belong to "Accelerated disability" (OR=0.74 [95 % CIs 0.60-0.92]), "Persistently mild disability" (0.68 [0.55-0.84]), and "Persistently severe disability" (0.67 [0.50-0.83]) compared to "Minimum disability." Although participation in horizontal groups was similarly associated with trajectories regardless of gender, vertical groups was not associated with trajectories among males.

CONCLUSIONS

Social participation among older adults may be associated with an extended period of living without disabilities before death. This association may differ by gender and social participation group and requires further research.

An Evidence-Based Update on Anticholinergic Use for Drug-Induced Movement Disorders

Drug-induced movement disorders (DIMDs) are associated with use of dopamine receptor blocking agents (DRBAs), including antipsychotics. The most common forms are drug-induced parkinsonism (DIP), dystonia, akathisia, and tardive dyskinesia (TD). Although rare, neuroleptic malignant syndrome (NMS) is a potentially life-threatening consequence of DRBA exposure. Recommendations for anticholinergic use in patients with DIMDs were developed on the basis of a roundtable discussion with healthcare professionals with extensive expertise in DIMD management, along with a comprehensive literature review. The roundtable agreed that "extrapyramidal symptoms" is a non-specific term that encompasses a range of abnormal movements. As such, it contributes to a misconception that all DIMDs can be treated in the same way, potentially leading to the misuse and overprescribing of anticholinergics. DIMDs are neurobiologically and clinically distinct, with different treatment paradigms and varying levels of evidence for anticholinergic use. Whereas evidence indicates anticholinergics can be effective for DIP and dystonia, they are not recommended for TD, akathisia, or NMS; nor are they supported for preventing DIMDs except in individuals at high risk for acute dystonia. Anticholinergics may induce serious peripheral adverse effects (e.g., urinary retention) and central effects (e.g., impaired cognition), all of which can be highly concerning especially in older adults. Appropriate use of anticholinergics therefore requires careful consideration of the evidence for efficacy (e.g., supportive for DIP but not TD) and the risks for serious adverse events. If used, anticholinergic medications should be prescribed at the lowest effective dose and for limited periods of time. When discontinued, they should be tapered gradually.

Identifying and predicting physical limitation and cognitive decline trajectory group of older adults in China: A data-driven machine learning analysis

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to utilize data-driven machine learning methods to identify and predict potential physical and cognitive function trajectory groups of older adults and determine their crucial factors for promoting active ageing in China.

METHODS

Longitudinal data on 3026 older adults from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity and Happy Family Survey was used to identify potential physical and cognitive function trajectory groups using a group-based multi-trajectory model (GBMTM). Predictors were selected from sociodemographic characteristics, lifestyle factors, and physical and mental conditions. The trajectory groups were predicted using data-driven machine learning models and dynamic nomogram. Model performance was evaluated by area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC), area under the precision-recall curve (PRAUC), and confusion matrix.

RESULTS

Two physical and cognitive function trajectory groups were determined, including a trajectory group with physical limitation and cognitive decline (14.18 %) and a normal trajectory group (85.82 %). Logistic regression performed well in predicting trajectory groups (AUROC = 0.881, PRAUC = 0.649). Older adults with lower baseline score of activities of daily living, older age, less frequent housework, and fewer actual teeth were more likely to experience physical limitation and cognitive decline trajectory group.

LIMITATION

This study didn't carry out external validation.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows that GBMTM and machine learning models effectively identify and predict physical limitation and cognitive decline trajectory group. The identified predictors might be essential for developing targeted interventions to promote healthy ageing.

The impact of falls on activities of daily living in older adults: A retrospective cohort analysis

BACKGROUND

Falls contribute to impairments in activities of daily living (ADLs), resulting in significant declines in the quality of life, safety, and functioning of older adults. Understanding the magnitude and duration of the effect of falls on ADLs, as well as identifying the characteristics of older adults more likely to have post-fall ADL impairment is critical to inform fall prevention and post-fall intervention. The purpose of this study is to 1) Quantify the association between falls and post-fall ADL impairment and 2) Model trajectories of ADL impairment pre- and post-fall to estimate the long-term impact of falls and identify characteristics of older adults most likely to have impairment.

METHOD

Study participants were from the Ginkgo Evaluation of Memory Study, a randomized controlled trial in older adults (age 75+) in the United States. Self-reported incident falls and ADL scores were ascertained every 6 months over a 7-year study period. We used Cox proportional hazards analyses (n = 2091) to quantify the association between falls and ADL impairment and latent class trajectory modeling (n = 748) to visualize trajectories of ADL impairment pre-and post-fall.

RESULTS

Falls reported in the previous 6 months were associated with impairment in ADLs (HR: 1.42; 95% CI 1.32, 1.52) in fully adjusted models. Based on trajectory modeling (n = 748), 19% (n = 139) of participants had increased, persistent ADL impairment after falling. Participants who were female, lived in a neighborhood with higher deprivation, or experienced polypharmacy were more likely to have ADL impairment post-fall.

CONCLUSIONS

Falls are associated with increased ADL impairment, and this impairment can persist over time. It is crucial that all older adults, and particularly those at higher risk of post-fall ADL impairment have access to comprehensive fall risk assessment and evidence-based fall prevention interventions, to help mitigate the negative impacts on ADL function.

Variability in repeated economic games: comparing trust game decisions to other social trust measures

Economic games are well-established tools that offer a convenient approach to study social behaviour. Although widely used, recent evidence suggests that decisions made in the context of standard economic games are less predictive of real-world behaviour than previously assumed self-reported questionnaires. A possible explanation for this discrepancy is that economic games decisions in the laboratory are more likely to be influenced by the current situation, while questionnaires are specifically designed to measure people's average behaviour across a long period of time. To test this hypothesis, we performed a longitudinal study where 275 respondents played 16 Trust games every two days within a three-week period, and filled out a questionnaire that measures social trust. This study confirmed the instability of our measure of trust behaviour over time and the substantial stability of questionnaire responses. However, we found a significant association between self-reported social trust and participants' average behaviour in the trust game measured across sessions, but also with participants' behaviour measured only in Session 1. Nevertheless, analysis of behavioural changes in the Trust games over time revealed different behavioural profiles, highlighting how economic games and questionnaires can complement each other in the study of social trust.

Trajectories of physical functioning and its predictors in older adults: A 12-year longitudinal study in China

Objective

Maintaining and delaying a decline in physical function in older adults is critical for healthy aging. This study aimed to explore trajectories, critical points of the trajectory changes, and predictors among older people in the Chinese community.

Design

This study was one with a longitudinal design performed in China.

Setting and participants

The target population was community-dwelling older adults aged over 65 years. A total of 2,503 older adults from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) were included in this study.

Methods

Physical functioning was measured by instrumental activities of daily living (IADL). Population-based trajectory models were used to identify potential heterogeneity in longitudinal changes over 12 years and to investigate associations between baseline predictors and different trajectories for different cohort members using LASSO regression and logistic regression.

Results

Four trajectories of physical function were identified: slow decline (33.0%), poor function and moderate decline (8.1%), rapid decline (23.5%), and stable function (35.4%). Older age, male sex, worse self-reported health status, worse vision status, more chronic diseases, worse cognitive function, and a decreased frequency of leisure activity influenced changes in the trajectory of physical function. Having fewer teeth, stronger depressive symptoms, a lack of exercise, and reduced hearing may increase the rate of decline.

Conclusion and implications

Four trajectories of physical function were identified in the Chinese elderly population. Early prevention or intervention of the determinants of these trajectories can maintain or delay the rate of decline in physical function and improve healthy aging.

Interpretable classifiers for prediction of disability trajectories using a nationwide longitudinal database

OBJECTIVES

To explore the heterogeneous disability trajectories and construct explainable machine learning models for effective prediction of long-term disability trajectories and understanding the mechanisms of predictions among the elderly Chinese at community level.

METHODS

This study retrospectively collected data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity and Happy Family Study between 2002 and 2018. A total of 4149 subjects aged 65 + in 2002 with completed activities of daily living (ADL) information for at least three waves were included. The mixed growth model was used to identify disability trajectories, and five machine learning models were further established to predict disability trajectories using epidemiological variables. An explainable approach was deployed to understand the model's decisions.

RESULTS

Three distinct disability trajectories, including normal class (77.3%), progressive class (15.5%), and high-onset class (7.2%), were identified for three-class prediction. The latter two were further merged into abnormal class, accompanied by normal class for two-class prediction. Machine learning, especially random forest and extreme gradient boosting achieved good performance in both two tasks. ADL, age, leisure activity, cognitive function, and blood pressure were key predictors.

CONCLUSION

The findings suggest that machine learning showed good performance and maybe of additional value in analyzing quality indicators in predicting disability trajectories, thereby providing basis to personalize intervention measures.

Mental and physical health among the French population before and during the first and second COVID-19 lockdowns: Latent class trajectory analyses using longitudinal data

BACKGROUND

The French government issued national COVID-19-related confinement and stay-at-home orders depending on different epidemic levels in a bid to stem the coronavirus pandemic and its resurgence. The long-term impact of lockdown measures on the general population may vary. We aimed to identify and characterize self-reported mental and physical health trajectories in the French population from pre-lockdown to the first and second COVID-19 lockdowns and to identify factors associated with health status variation patterns.

METHODS

We did a secondary analysis of the MAVIE cohort in France. Volunteers of this national cohort were recruited between November 2014 and December 2019, and information was collected at recruitment (pre-lockdown), April-May 2020 (the first lockdown), and October-December 2020 (the second lockdown). Latent class mixed models were built to identify distinct anxiety (as measured by GAD-7) and depressive (as measured by PHQ-9) symptoms, and self-perceived mental and physical health trajectories. Factors associated with status variation were identified by logistic or multinomial regression.

RESULTS

A total of 613 participants with data in all three data collection waves were included. Respondents spent almost half as much time on traditional media, websites and social media during the second lockdown as during the first. Mean anxiety scores were 1.96, 2.37 and 2.82 at pre-lockdown, and the first and second lockdowns, respectively. Mean depressive scores were 3.12, 3.36 and 3.95, respectively. Latent class mixed models fitted two and three distinct trajectory classes respectively for anxiety symptoms ('no pre-pandemic anxiety, slightly increase', 58.9%; 'consistently fair', 41.1%) and depressive symptoms ('consistently very low', 34.6%; 'consistently low', 56.1%; 'increasing and clinically significant at the second lockdown', 9.3%), and four classes for self-perceived mental and physical health. Females were more likely to belong to trajectories of the most vulnerable one as regard to the symptoms of anxiety and depression, and self-perceived mental and physical health. The younger participants were also more vulnerable to anxiety symptoms and those with a clinical diagnosis or a positive COVID-19 test for the participant or relatives were more likely to belong to vulnerable trajectories for depressive symptoms and self-perceived mental health.

CONCLUSION

A continuing increase in the mean scores of anxiety and depression symptoms was observed throughout the two lockdown periods in France. Further analyses revealed distinct patterns with a small fraction of volunteers experiencing worsening mental and physical health symptoms. This vulnerable small part of the population requires targeted support.

The Effectiveness of Multicomponent Intervention on Daily Functioning among the Community-Dwelling Elderly: A Systematic Review

The deterioration of physical and cognitive functioning in the elderly is an impairment to their independent self-management and to improving their ability to perform daily functions. Nurses should support the elderly to experience a healthy and a successful aging process by preventing dependence on daily functioning and understanding the care assistance that such persons need. This study aimed to gain insight into the evidence on the effectiveness of multicomponent intervention on the activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) among the community-dwelling elderly without cognitive impairment. The design is a systematic review of a randomized controlled trial. The language of the published literature was English, and the search period was from January 2000 to December 2020. Articles were included under the PICO (population, intervention, comparison, and outcome) framework for: (a) community-dwelling elderly without cognitive impairment; (b) multicomponent intervention; (c) comparison group who did not receive the intervention; and (d) measurement of the effect of ADL and IADL. A total of 4413 references were found, 6 studies were included. Most studies (n = 5) reported that the multicomponent intervention exerted a beneficial effect on ADL and IADL. Only one study showed the highest methodology and reporting quality in the Cochrane review. Common components of the programs included: occupational therapy, physical therapy, exercise, memory training, cognitive–behavioral therapy, interdisciplinary intervention, and cognitive training. Multicomponent intervention may be a beneficial way to improve dependence on ADL and IADL as an important area of functional evaluation in the elderly. Considering the physical condition of the elderly, multicomponent interventions, including physical activity, exercise, occupational therapy, and especially individually customized coaching related to ADL and IADL training, may be useful.

ADL/ IADL dependencies and unmet healthcare needs in older persons: A nationwide survey

PURPOSE

To determine the impact of overall and component-wise activities for daily living (ADL) as well as instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) dependencies on unmet healthcare needs in older adults.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Cross-sectional analyses were performed based on a National Survey of Older Koreans. A total of 10,082 participants aged ≥ 65 years were included. All data were collected through standardized, personal interviews with participants and their representatives. Logistic regression was used to analyse the risk of unmet healthcare needs, with or without adjustment.

RESULTS

Amongst all participants, 734 (7.2%) had ADL dependency. Participants with ADL dependency had lower income, education level, and perceived health status (p<0.001). The adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for the risk of unmet healthcare needs was 1.52 (95%, confidence interval [CI] 1.19-1.95) for ADL and 1.54 (95%, CI 1.28-1.86) for IADL. When men have ADL dependency, aOR of unmet healthcare needs was higher than that of women (aOR 1.89, 95% CI 1.15 - 3.11; aOR 1.65, 95% CI 1.15 - 2.36, respectively) and IADL showed the same trend. Any dependency on ADL or IADL was associated with higher risk of unmet healthcare needs, whether adjusted or not (p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Older adults with ADL or IADL dependency had higher risks of unmet healthcare needs than their independent counterparts. In addition to mobility problems, other components were related to unmet healthcare needs. Therefore, to reduce unmet healthcare needs, integration of health and social care that supports ADL or IADL dependency should be considered.

Association Between Disability Trajectory and Health Care Service Utilization Among Older Adults in China

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to identify the heterogeneous disability trajectories among older Chinese adults and examine the association between disability trajectories and health care service utilization.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

A community-based study including older adults aged ≥65 years from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey.

METHODS

Disability was assessed by the difficulties in activities of daily living and instrumental activities of daily living between 2002 and 2018. Health care utilization was measured by the expenditures on outpatient and inpatient services in 2018. Growth mixture modeling was conducted to estimate heterogeneous disability trajectories. A 2-part model was used to analyze the association of disability trajectories and health care utilization. Covariates were included based on Andersen's behavioral model.

RESULTS

Three classes of disability trajectories were identified: the progressive (7.9%), late-onset (13.7%), and normal classes (78.4%). Older adults who followed the late-onset trajectory of disability were more likely to use inpatient services compared with the normal class (odds ratio = 1.47, P < .010), after controlling potential confounders. Compared with the normal class, the progressive class on average spent US$145.94 more annually (45.2% higher) on outpatient services (P < .010) and $738.99 more annually (72.6% higher) on inpatient services (P < .001); the late-onset class reported higher annual expenditures on outpatient and inpatient services of $215.94 (66.9% higher) and $1405.00 (138.0% higher), respectively (all P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Heterogeneous disability trajectories exhibited distinct health care service utilization patterns among older Chinese adults. Older adults affected by late-onset disability incurred the highest health care needs. These findings provide valuable policy-relevant evidence for reducing health care burden among older adults.

The activity of daily living (ADL) subgroups and health impairment among Chinese elderly: a latent profile analysis

Background

Disability in aged people became one of the major challenges in China due to the acceleration of population aging. Nevertheless, there were limited methods to appropriately discriminate the degree of combined basic activity of daily living (BADL) and instrumental activity of daily living (IADL). The present study explored an empirical typology of the activity of daily living (ADL) and its association with health status among the elderly in China.

Methods

Data throughout the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) was retrieved and Latent profile analysis (LPA) was conducted to identify the subgroups of ADL for included elderly subjects. Multinomial regression was performed to detect the effect of identified characteristics with ADL subgroups, and the restricted cubic spine was drawn to show the changes in the relationship between age-specific ADL disability and BMI.

Results

The overall participants (n=8108) were divided into three ADL classes by LPA - ‘no BADL limitation-no IADL limitation’ (Class one, n=6062, 75%), ‘no BADL limitation- IADL impairment’ (Class two, n=1526, 19%), and ‘BADL impairment- IADL impairment’ (Class three, n=520, 6%). Compared with the participants in Class one, the oldest-old, living without spouse, lacking of exercise, short in social activities, having experience of falls, having comorbidity of diabetes, heart disease, stroke, decreased cognitive function, depression symptom were highly associated with Class two and Class three. Additionally, malnutrition and asthma were associated with combined BADL/IADL impairment (Class three), while illiteracy was only associated with IADL impairment (Class two). Furthermore, a statistically significant U-shape association was detected between age and BADL/IADL disability (Class three vs. Class two) as well as BMI and BADL/IADL disability (Class three vs. Class one). The elderly aged 80–90 with IADL impairment were less likely to evolve into combined BADL/IADL impairment, and the elderly who were underweight or obese may have higher risk of combined BADL/IADL impairment.

Conclusion

A novel functional assessment was explored based on LPA, by which elderly people could be classified into three distinct classes of combined BADL/IADL. The predictors identified with particular IADL/BADL classes could draw early attention to the onset of functional disability and enlighten targeted interventions to address consequent problems of aged people.