Model-based geostatistics enables more precise estimates of neglected tropical-disease prevalence in elimination settings: mapping trachoma prevalence in Ethiopia

District-Level Forecast of Achieving Trachoma Elimination as a Public Health Problem By 2030: An Ensemble Modelling Approach

Assessing the feasibility of 2030 as a target date for global elimination of trachoma, and identification of districts that may require enhanced treatment to meet World Health Organization (WHO) elimination criteria by this date are key challenges in operational planning for trachoma programmes. Here we address these challenges by prospectively evaluating forecasting models of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) prevalence, leveraging ensemble-based approaches. Seven candidate probabilistic models were developed to forecast district-wise TF prevalence in 11 760 districts, trained using district-level data on the population prevalence of TF in children aged 1-9 years from 2004 to 2022. Geographical location, history of mass drug administration treatment, and previously measured prevalence data were included in these models as key predictors. The best-performing models were included in an ensemble, using weights derived from their relative likelihood scores. To incorporate the inherent stochasticity of disease transmission and challenges of population-level surveillance, we forecasted probability distributions for the TF prevalence in each geographic district, rather than predicting a single value. Based on our probabilistic forecasts, 1.46% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.43-1.48%) of all districts in trachoma-endemic countries, equivalent to 172 districts, will exceed the 5% TF control threshold in 2030 with the current interventions. Global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem by 2030 may require enhanced intervention and/or surveillance of high-risk districts.

Identifying childhood malaria hotspots and risk factors in a Nigerian city using geostatistical modelling approach

Malaria ranks high among prevalent and ravaging infectious diseases in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The negative impacts, disease burden, and risk are higher among children and pregnant women as part of the most vulnerable groups to malaria in Nigeria. However, the burden of malaria is not even in space and time. This study explores the spatial variability of malaria prevalence among children under five years (U5) in medium-sized rapidly growing city of Akure, Nigeria using model-based geostatistical modeling (MBG) technique to predict U5 malaria burden at a 100 × 100 m grid, while the parameter estimation was done using Monte Carlo maximum likelihood method. The non-spatial logistic regression model shows that U5 malaria prevalence is significantly influenced by the usage of insecticide-treated nets-ITNs, window protection, and water source. Furthermore, the MBG model shows predicted U5 malaria prevalence in Akure is greater than 35% at certain locations while we were able to ascertain places with U5 prevalence > 10% (i.e. hotspots) using exceedance probability modelling which is a vital tool for policy development. The map provides place-based evidence on the spatial variation of U5 malaria in Akure, and direction on where intensified interventions are crucial for the reduction of U5 malaria burden and improvement of urban health in Akure, Nigeria.

Spatial and network mapping of comorbidity with trachoma and visual-impairing NCDs in a pastoralist community in Kenya: implications for SDGs and UHC

BACKGROUND

We explore the spatial distribution of comorbidity with trachoma and potentially visual-impairing non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and their risk factors among Kenyan pastoralists.

METHODS

Using a cross-sectional study design, we recruited and clinically examined 262 study participants for NCDs (hypertension or diabetes) and trachoma using the World Health Organization grading system. Network models estimated interactions and risks linked with trachoma and NCDs while the Poisson point process determined their spatial distribution.

RESULTS

Of the 262 participants, 140 (53%) had trachoma, with >71% of these cases identified among females and those >60 y of age. A total of 36 trachoma cases co-occurred with hypertension (26%) and diabetes (0.01%). NCDs were frequent among those with recurring trachoma (21%) and trachomatous trichiasis (14.3%). Trachoma and NCDs clustered together in <1 km distances (R=0.18, p=0.02). In network analysis, age was strongly associated with trachoma and NCDs. Trachoma was linked with geographic location while diabetes was linked with water source distances. Education level became the central risk factor.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrate a twin trachoma-NCD burden that is higher among elderly pastoralists in southern Kenya. Attenuating adverse population-level visual impairment, including integrating the trachoma SAFE strategy with NCD comprehensive care, amplifies the benefits from economies of scale, accelerating realization of Sustainable Development Goal 3 and universal health coverage in hard-to-reach areas.

Tropical Data: Approach and Methodology as Applied to Trachoma Prevalence Surveys

PURPOSE

Population-based prevalence surveys are essential for decision-making on interventions to achieve trachoma elimination as a public health problem. This paper outlines the methodologies of Tropical Data, which supports work to undertake those surveys.

METHODS

Tropical Data is a consortium of partners that supports health ministries worldwide to conduct globally standardised prevalence surveys that conform to World Health Organization recommendations. Founding principles are health ministry ownership, partnership and collaboration, and quality assurance and quality control at every step of the survey process. Support covers survey planning, survey design, training, electronic data collection and fieldwork, and data management, analysis and dissemination. Methods are adapted to meet local context and needs. Customisations, operational research and integration of other diseases into routine trachoma surveys have also been supported.

RESULTS

Between 29th February 2016 and 24th April 2023, 3373 trachoma surveys across 50 countries have been supported, resulting in 10,818,502 people being examined for trachoma.

CONCLUSION

This health ministry-led, standardised approach, with support from the start to the end of the survey process, has helped all trachoma elimination stakeholders to know where interventions are needed, where interventions can be stopped, and when elimination as a public health problem has been achieved. Flexibility to meet specific country contexts, adaptation to changes in global guidance and adjustments in response to user feedback have facilitated innovation in evidence-based methodologies, and supported health ministries to strive for global disease control targets.

Monitoring transmission intensity of trachoma with serology

Trachoma, caused by ocular Chlamydia trachomatis infection, is targeted for global elimination as a public health problem by 2030. To provide evidence for use of antibodies to monitor C. trachomatis transmission, we collated IgG responses to Pgp3 antigen, PCR positivity, and clinical observations from 19,811 children aged 1-9 years in 14 populations. We demonstrate that age-seroprevalence curves consistently shift along a gradient of transmission intensity: rising steeply in populations with high levels of infection and active trachoma and becoming flat in populations near elimination. Seroprevalence (range: 0-54%) and seroconversion rates (range: 0-15 per 100 person-years) correlate with PCR prevalence (r: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.57, 0.97). A seroprevalence threshold of 13.5% (seroconversion rate 2.75 per 100 person-years) identifies clusters with any PCR-identified infection at high sensitivity ( >90%) and moderate specificity (69-75%). Antibody responses in young children provide a robust, generalizable approach to monitor population progress toward and beyond trachoma elimination.

Monitoring transmission intensity of trachoma with serology

Trachoma, caused by ocular Chlamydia trachomatis infection, is targeted for global elimination as a public health problem by 2030. To provide evidence for use of antibodies to monitor C. trachomatis transmission, we collated IgG responses to Pgp3 antigen, PCR positivity, and clinical observations from 19,811 children aged 1- 9 years in 14 populations. We demonstrate that age-seroprevalence curves consistently shift along a gradient of transmission intensity: rising steeply in populations with high levels of infection and active trachoma and becoming flat in populations near elimination. Seroprevalence (range: 0-54%) and seroconversion rates (range: 0-15 per 100 person-years) correlate with PCR prevalence (r: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.57, 0.97). A seroprevalence threshold of 13.5% (seroconversion rate 2.75 per 100 person-years) identifies clusters with any PCR-identified infection at high sensitivity (>90%) and moderate specificity (69-75%). Antibody responses in young children provide a robust, generalizable approach to monitor population progress toward and beyond trachoma elimination.

Prevalence of Trachoma in Four Evaluation Units in Yemen after Implementation of Trachoma Elimination Measures

BACKGROUND

In baseline trachoma prevalence surveys, six districts in two governorates of Yemen were identified as requiring interventions. We set out to estimate the prevalence of trachoma 6-12 months after one round of antibiotic mass drug administration (MDA) and implementation of measures to encourage facial cleanliness.

METHODS

A population-based prevalence survey was conducted in each of the four evaluation units in October 2019. Contemporary World Health Organization recommendations for trachoma surveys were followed. Participants were selected using a two-stage cluster sampling process. The prevalence of inflammatory and late-stage trachoma was measured through eye examination. Water, sanitation, and hygiene facility access among visited households was estimated.

RESULTS

The prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-,follicular (TF) in 1-9-year-olds per EU was <5.0% in three EUs (Al Mighlaf, Al Munirah, and As Salif; Az Zaydiyah; and Mudhaykhirah districts) and 5.0-9.9% in one EU (Far Al Udayn District). The prevalence of TT unknown to the health system in ≥15-year-olds per EU was <0.2% in all four EUs. Per EU, the proportion of households with an improved drinking water source ranged from 40% to 100%; access to an improved drinking water source within 30-minute return journey of the household ranged from 45% to 100%; and with an improved latrine ranged from 32% to 83%.

CONCLUSION

An additional round of antibiotic MDA should be administered in Far Al Udayn district before it is resurveyed. In the other surveyed districts, pre-validation surveillance surveys should be conducted in 2 years' time to determine if the TF prevalence <5% has been maintained.

Trachoma

Trachoma is a neglected tropical disease caused by infection with conjunctival strains of Chlamydia trachomatis. It can result in blindness. Pathophysiologically, trachoma is a disease complex composed of two linked chronic processes: a recurrent, generally subclinical infectious-inflammatory disease that mostly affects children, and a non-communicable, cicatricial and, owing to trichiasis, eventually blinding disease that supervenes in some individuals later in life. At least 150 infection episodes over an individual's lifetime are needed to precipitate trichiasis; thus, opportunity exists for a just global health system to intervene to prevent trachomatous blindness. Trachoma is found at highest prevalence in the poorest communities of low-income countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa; in June 2021, 1.8 million people worldwide were going blind from the disease. Blindness attributable to trachoma can appear in communities many years after conjunctival C. trachomatis transmission has waned or ceased; therefore, the two linked disease processes require distinct clinical and public health responses. Surgery is offered to individuals with trichiasis and antibiotic mass drug administration and interventions to stimulate facial cleanliness and environmental improvement are designed to reduce infection prevalence and transmission. Together, these interventions comprise the SAFE strategy, which is achieving considerable success. Although much work remains, a continuing public health problem from trachoma in the year 2030 will be difficult for the world to excuse.

Public Health Policy Pillars for the Sustainable Elimination of Zoonotic Schistosomiasis

Schistosomiasis is a parasitic disease acquired through contact with contaminated freshwater. The definitive hosts are terrestrial mammals, including humans, with some Schistosoma species crossing the animal-human boundary through zoonotic transmission. An estimated 12 million people live at risk of zoonotic schistosomiasis caused by Schistosoma japonicum and Schistosoma mekongi, largely in the World Health Organization’s Western Pacific Region and in Indonesia. Mathematical models have played a vital role in our understanding of the biology, transmission, and impact of intervention strategies, however, these have mostly focused on non-zoonotic Schistosoma species. Whilst these non-zoonotic-based models capture some aspects of zoonotic schistosomiasis transmission dynamics, the commonly-used frameworks are yet to adequately capture the complex epi-ecology of multi-host zoonotic transmission. However, overcoming these knowledge gaps goes beyond transmission dynamics modelling. To improve model utility and enhance zoonotic schistosomiasis control programmes, we highlight three pillars that we believe are vital to sustainable interventions at the implementation (community) and policy-level, and discuss the pillars in the context of a One-Health approach, recognising the interconnection between humans, animals and their shared environment. These pillars are: (1) human and animal epi-ecological understanding; (2) economic considerations (such as treatment costs and animal losses); and (3) sociological understanding, including inter- and intra-human and animal interactions. These pillars must be built on a strong foundation of trust, support and commitment of stakeholders and involved institutions.