Spatial quantification of the world population potentially exposed to Zika virus

Characterization of Two Highly Specific Monoclonal Antibodies Targeting the Glycan Loop of the Zika Virus Envelope Protein

Zika virus (ZIKV) is an emerging flavivirus associated with several neurological diseases such as Guillain-Barré syndrome in adults and microcephaly in newborn children. Its distribution and mode of transmission (via Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes) collectively cause ZIKV to be a serious concern for global health. High genetic homology of flaviviruses and shared ecology is a hurdle for accurate detection. Distinguishing infections caused by different viruses based on serological recognition can be misleading as many anti-flavivirus monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) discovered to date are highly cross-reactive, especially those against the envelope (E) protein. To provide more specific research tools, we produced ZIKV E directed hybridoma cell lines and characterized two highly ZIKV-specific mAb clones (mAbs A11 and A42) against several members of the Flavivirus genus. Epitope mapping of mAb A11 revealed glycan loop specificity in Domain I of the ZIKV E protein. The development of two highly specific mAbs targeting the surface fusion protein of ZIKV presents a significant advancement in research capabilities as these can be employed as essential tools to enhance our understanding of ZIKV identification on infected cells ex vivo or in culture.

Trends in mosquito species distribution modeling: insights for vector surveillance and disease control

Species distribution modeling (SDM) has become an increasingly common approach to explore questions about ecology, geography, outbreak risk, and global change as they relate to infectious disease vectors. Here, we conducted a systematic review of the scientific literature, screening 563 abstracts and identifying 204 studies that used SDMs to produce distribution estimates for mosquito species. While the number of studies employing SDM methods has increased markedly over the past decade, the overwhelming majority used a single method (maximum entropy modeling; MaxEnt) and focused on human infectious disease vectors or their close relatives. The majority of regional models were developed for areas in Africa and Asia, while more localized modeling efforts were most common for North America and Europe. Findings from this study highlight gaps in taxonomic, geographic, and methodological foci of current SDM literature for mosquitoes that can guide future efforts to study the geography of mosquito-borne disease risk.

Tracing the future of epidemics: Coincident niche distribution of host animals and disease incidence revealed climate-correlated risk shifts of main zoonotic diseases in China

Climate has critical roles in the origin, pathogenesis and transmission of infectious zoonotic diseases. However, large-scale epidemiologic trend and specific response pattern of zoonotic diseases under future climate scenarios are poorly understood. Here, we projected the distribution shifts of transmission risks of main zoonotic diseases under climate change in China. First, we shaped the global habitat distribution of main host animals for three representative zoonotic diseases (2, 6, and 12 hosts for dengue, hemorrhagic fever, and plague, respectively) with 253,049 occurrence records using maximum entropy (Maxent) modeling. Meanwhile, we predicted the risk distribution of the above three diseases with 197,098 disease incidence records from 2004 to 2017 in China using an integrated Maxent modeling approach. The comparative analysis showed that there exist highly coincident niche distributions between habitat distribution of hosts and risk distribution of diseases, indicating that the integrated Maxent modeling is accurate and effective for predicting the potential risk of zoonotic diseases. On this basis, we further projected the current and future transmission risks of 11 main zoonotic diseases under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) in 2050 and 2070 in China using the above integrated Maxent modeling with 1,001,416 disease incidence records. We found that Central China, Southeast China, and South China are concentrated regions with high transmission risks for main zoonotic diseases. More specifically, zoonotic diseases had diverse shift patterns of transmission risks including increase, decrease, and unstable. Further correlation analysis indicated that these patterns of shifts were highly correlated with global warming and precipitation increase. Our results revealed how specific zoonotic diseases respond in a changing climate, thereby calling for effective administration and prevention strategies. Furthermore, these results will shed light on guiding future epidemiologic prediction of emerging infectious diseases under global climate change.

Modelling the ecological niche of naturally occurring anthrax at global and circumpolar extents using an ensemble modelling framework

Bacillus anthracis, the causative agent of anthrax, is a spore-forming bacterium that primarily affects herbivorous livestock, wildlife and humans exposed to direct contact with infected animal carcasses or products. To date, there are a limited number of studies that have delineated the potential global distribution of anthrax, despite the importance of the disease from both an economic and public health standpoint. This study compiled occurrence data (n = 874) of confirmed human and animal cases from 1954 to 2021 in 94 countries. Using an ensemble ecological niche model framework, we developed updated maps of the global predicted ecological suitability of anthrax to measure relative risk at multiple scales of analysis, including a model for circumpolar regions. Additionally, we produced maps quantifying the disease transmission risk associated with anthrax to cattle, sheep and goat populations. Environmental suitability for B. anthracis globally is concentred throughout Eurasia, sub-Saharan Africa, the Americas, Southeast Asia, Australia and Oceania. Suitable environments for B. anthracis at the circumpolar scale extend above the Arctic Circle into portions of Russia, Canada, Alaska and northern Scandinavia. Environmental factors driving B. anthracis suitability globally include vegetation, land surface temperature, soil characteristics, primary climate conditions and topography. At the circumpolar scale, suitability is influenced by soil factors, topography and the derived climate characteristics. The greatest risk to livestock is concentrated within the Indian subcontinent, Australia, Anatolia, the Caucasus region, Central Asia, the European Union, Argentina, Uruguay, China, the United States, Canada and East Africa. This study expands on previous work by providing enhanced knowledge of the potential spatial distribution of anthrax in the Southern Hemisphere, sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and circumpolar regions of the Northern Hemisphere. We conclude that these updated maps will provide pertinent information to guide disease control programs, inform policymakers and raise awareness at the global level to lessen morbidity and mortality among animals and humans located in environmentally suitable areas.

Predictive Risk Mapping of Schistosomiasis in Madagascar Using Ecological Niche Modeling and Precision Mapping

Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease (NTD) found throughout tropical and subtropical Africa. In Madagascar, the condition is widespread and endemic in 74% of all administrative districts in the country. Despite the significant burden of the disease, high-resolution risk maps have yet to be produced to guide national control programs. This study used an ecological niche modeling (ENM) and precision mapping approach to estimate environmental suitability and disease transmission risk. The results show that suitability for schistosomiasis is widespread and covers 264,781 km2 (102,232 sq miles). Covariates of significance to the model were the accessibility to cities, distance to water, enhanced vegetation index (EVI), annual mean temperature, land surface temperature (LST), clay content, and annual precipitation. Disease transmission risk is greatest in the central highlands, tropical east coast, arid-southwest, and northwest. An estimated 14.9 million people could be at risk of schistosomiasis; 11.4 million reside in rural areas, while 3.5 million are in urban areas. This study provides valuable insight into the geography of schistosomiasis in Madagascar and its potential risk to human populations. Because of the focal nature of the disease, these maps can inform national surveillance programs while improving understanding of areas in need of medical interventions.

Zika virus infection and microcephaly: spatial analysis and socio-environmental determinants in a region of high Aedes aegypti infestation in the Central-West Region of Brazil

Background

More than 5 years after the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic, Zika infection remains a major concern in regions with high Aedes infestation. The objectives of this study were (i) to identify clusters of ZIKV infection and microcephaly, and/or central nervous system (CNS) alterations associated with congenital infection during the epidemic peak in 2016 and subsequently, in 2017 and 2018; (ii) to measure the non-spatial correlation between ZIKV infection and microcephaly and/or CNS alterations associated with congenital infection; and (iii) to analyse the sociodemographic/economic, health, and environmental determinants associated with the incidence of ZIKV in a region of high infestation by Aedes aegypti in the Central-West Region of Brazil.

Methods

This ecological study analysed 246 municipalities in the state of Goiás (6.9 million inhabitants). The data were obtained from the Information System for Notifiable Diseases (ZIKV cases) and the Public Health Event Registry (microcephaly and/or CNS alterations associated with congenital infection). Incidence rates and prevalence of ZIKA infection were smoothed by an empirical Bayesian estimator (LEbayes), producing the local empirical Bayesian rate (LEBR). In the spatial analysis, ZIKV infection and microcephaly cases were georeferenced by the municipality of residence for 2016 and grouped for 2017 and 2018. Global Moran's I and the Hot Spot Analysis tool (Getis-Ord Gi* statistics) were used to analyse the spatial autocorrelation and clusters of ZIKV infection and microcephaly, respectively. A generalised linear model from the Poisson family was used to assess the association between ecological determinants and the smoothing incidence rate of ZIKV infection.

Results

A total of 9892 cases of acute ZIKV infection and 121 cases of microcephaly were confirmed. The mean LEBR of the ZIKV infection in the 246 municipalities was 22.3 cases/100,000 inhabitants in 2016, and 10.3 cases/100,000 inhabitants in 2017 and 2018. The LEBR of the prevalence rate of microcephaly and/or CNS alterations associated with congenital infection was 7 cases/10,000 live births in 2016 and 2 cases/10,000 live births during 2017–2018. Hotspots of ZIKV infection and microcephaly cases were identified in the capital and neighbouring municipalities in 2016, with new clusters in the following years. In a multiple regression Poisson analysis, ZIKV infection was associated with higher population density, the incidence of dengue, Aedes larvae infestation index, and average rainfall. The important determinant of ZIKV infection incidence reduction was the increase in households attended by endemic disease control agents.

Conclusions

Our analyses were able to capture, in a more granular way, aspects that make it possible to inform public managers of the sentinel areas identified in the post-epidemic hotspots.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-06805-1.

Aedes aegypti in the Mediterranean container ports at the time of climate change: A time bomb on the mosquito vector map of Europe

In the past, Aedes aegypti was present in Southern Europe. Although the mosquito was eradicated from the Mediterranean region, its regional ecotype survived the second half of the 20th century in the eastern Black Sea area. The aim of the study was to model the changes in the altering climatic suitability, ontogenetic development time and the survival rate of Aedes aegypti from first-stage larvae to adulthood in Southern Europe. The modelled present climatic suitability patterns of the mosquito show that large areas of the lower altitude Mediterranean regions, including the coastal areas of the Balkan Peninsula, South France, and large regions of the Apennines and the Iberian Peninsulas could be suitable for Ae. aegypti. The future (2041-2060 and 2061-2080) projections predict the potential northward shift of the northern occurrence of the species in the circum-Mediterranean and Black Sea areas. Both, the potential development time, and survival rate of Ae. aegypti in the late 19th and the early 20th century could be like in the present times along the Mediterranean coast. The current climatic conditions cannot explain the absence of the mosquito in wide areas of the Mediterranean and sub-Mediterranean ecoregions. The future models predict the notable increase in the development time and survival rate of the mosquito in the southern and central regions of Europe. In general, the container ports of the Alboran, Balearic, and Aegean seas seem to be the most suitable sites for the re-colonization of the mosquito, and such northern parts of the Mediterranean Sea like the Gulf of Lion, the Ligurian, and Adriatic Seas are in less extent.

Is the ZIKV Congenital Syndrome and Microcephaly Due to Syndemism with Latent Virus Coinfection?

The emergence of the Zika virus (ZIKV) mirrors its evolutionary nature and, thus, its ability to grow in diversity or complexity (i.e., related to genome, host response, environment changes, tropism, and pathogenicity), leading to it recently joining the circle of closed congenital pathogens. The causal relation of ZIKV to microcephaly is still a much-debated issue. The identification of outbreak foci being in certain endemic urban areas characterized by a high-density population emphasizes that mixed infections might spearhead the recent appearance of a wide range of diseases that were initially attributed to ZIKV. Globally, such coinfections may have both positive and negative effects on viral replication, tropism, host response, and the viral genome. In other words, the possibility of coinfection may necessitate revisiting what is considered to be known regarding the pathogenesis and epidemiology of ZIKV diseases. ZIKV viral coinfections are already being reported with other arboviruses (e.g., chikungunya virus (CHIKV) and dengue virus (DENV)) as well as congenital pathogens (e.g., human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and cytomegalovirus (HCMV)). However, descriptions of human latent viruses and their impacts on ZIKV disease outcomes in hosts are currently lacking. This review proposes to select some interesting human latent viruses (i.e., herpes simplex virus 2 (HSV-2), Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), human herpesvirus 6 (HHV-6), human parvovirus B19 (B19V), and human papillomavirus (HPV)), whose virological features and co-exposition with ZIKV may provide evidence of the syndemism process, shedding some light on the emergence of the ZIKV-induced global congenital syndrome in South America.

A review of models applied to the geographic spread of Zika virus

In recent years, Zika virus (ZIKV) has expanded its geographic range and in 2015–2016 caused a substantial epidemic linked to a surge in developmental and neurological complications in newborns. Mathematical models are powerful tools for assessing ZIKV spread and can reveal important information for preventing future outbreaks. We reviewed the literature and retrieved modelling studies that were developed to understand the spatial epidemiology of ZIKV spread and risk. We classified studies by type, scale, aim and applications and discussed their characteristics, strengths and limitations. We examined the main objectives of these models and evaluated the effectiveness of integrating epidemiological and phylogeographic data, along with socioenvironmental risk factors that are known to contribute to vector–human transmission. We also assessed the promising application of human mobility data as a real-time indicator of ZIKV spread. Lastly, we summarised model validation methods used in studies to ensure accuracy in models and modelled outcomes. Models are helpful for understanding ZIKV spread and their characteristics should be carefully considered when developing future modelling studies to improve arbovirus surveillance.

The failed invasion of Harmonia axyridis in the Azores, Portugal: Climatic restriction or wrong population origin?

We tested two questions: (i) whether the climatic conditions of the Azorean Islands in Portugal may have restricted the invasion of Harmonia axyridis across this archipelago and (ii) determine what population of this species could have a higher probability of invading the islands. We used MaxEnt to project the climate requirements of different H. axyridis populations from three regions of the world, and the potential global niche of the species in the Azorean islands. Then we assessed the suitability of the islands for each of the three H. axyridis populations and global potential niche through histograms analysis, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of climate variables, and a variable-by-variable assessment of the suitability response curves compared with the climatic conditions of the Azores. Climatic conditions of the Azores are less suitable for the U.S. and native Asian populations of H. axyridis, and more suitable for European populations and the global potential niche. The PCA showed that the climatic conditions of the islands differed from the climatic requirements of H. axyridis. This difference is mainly explained by precipitation of the wettest month, isothermality, and the minimum temperature of the coldest month. We concluded that the climatic conditions of the Azores could have influenced the establishment and spread of H. axyridis on these islands from Europe. Our results showed that abiotic resistance represented by the climate of the potentially colonizable zones could hinder the establishment of invasive insects, but it could vary depending of the origin of the colonizing population.

Nexus between population density and novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in the south Indian states: A geo-statistical approach

The unprecedented growth of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) as a severe acute respiratory syndrome escalated to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. It has created an unanticipated global public health crisis that is spreading rapidly in India as well, posing a serious threat to 1350 million persons. Among the factors, population density is foremost in posing a challenge in controlling the COVID-19 contagion. In such extraordinary times, evidence-based knowledge is the prime requisite for pacifying the effect. In this piece, we have studied the district wise transmissions of the novel coronavirus in five south Indian states until 20th July 2020 and its relationship with their respective population density. The five states are purposefully selected for their records in better healthcare infrastructure vis-à-vis other states in India. The study uses Pearson's correlation coefficient to account for the direct impact of population density on COVID-19 transmission rate. Response surface methodology approach is used to validate the correlation between density and transmission rate and spatiotemporal dynamics is highlighted using Thiessen polygon method. The analysis has found that COVID-19 transmission in four states (Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Telangana) strongly hinges upon the spatial distribution of population density. In addition, the results indicate that the long-term impacts of the COVID-19 crisis are likely to differ with demographic density. In conclusion, those at the helm of affairs must take cognizance of the vulnerability clusters together across districts.

COVID-19 and urban vulnerability in India

The global pandemic has an inherently urban character. The UN-Habitat's publication of a Response Plan for mollification of the SARS-CoV-2 based externalities in the cities of the world testifies to that. This article takes the UN-Habitat report as the premise to carry out an empirical investigation in the four major metro cities of India. The report's concern with the urban character of the pandemic has underlined the role of cities in disease transmission. In that wake, the study demarcates factors at the sub-city level that tend to jeopardize the two mandatory precautionary measures during COVID-19 - Social Distancing and Lockdown. It investigates those factors through a Covid Vulnerability Index. The Index devised with the help of Analytic Hierarchy Process demarcates the low, moderate, high, and very high vulnerable city sub-units. Secondly, UN-Habitat's one of the major action areas is evidence-based knowledge creation through mapping and its analysis. In our study, we do it at a granular scale for arriving at a more nuanced understanding. Thus, in harmony with the UN-habitat's we take the urban seriously and identify the gaps that need to be plugged for the pandemic cities of now and of the future.

Expansion of the Emerging Fungal Pathogen Cryptococcus bacillisporus Into America: Linking Phylogenetic Origin, Geographical Spread and Population Under Exposure Risk

In 2018 the fungal pathogen Cryptococcus bacillisporus (AFLP5/VGIII) was isolated for the first time in Chile, representing the only report in a temperate region in South America. We reconstructed the colonization process of C. bacillisporus in Chile, estimating the phylogenetic origin, the potential spread zone, and the population at risk. We performed a phylogenetic analysis of the strain and modeled the environmental niche of the pathogen projecting its potential spread zone into the new colonized region. Finally, we generated risk maps and quantified the people under potential risk. Phylogenetic analysis showed high similarity between the Chilean isolate and two clonal clusters from California, United States and Colombia in South America. The pathogen can expand into all the temperate Mediterranean zone in central Chile and western Argentina, exposing more than 12 million people to this pathogen in Chile. This study has epidemiological and public health implications for the response to a potential C. bacillisporus outbreak, optimizing budgets, routing for screening diagnosis, and treatment implementation.

Vertical Transmission of Zika Virus in Aedes aegypti Produces Potentially Infectious Progeny

Vertical transmission, or pathogen transfer from female to offspring, can facilitate the persistence of emerging arboviruses, such as Zika virus (ZIKV), through periods of low horizontal transmission or adverse environmental conditions. We aimed at determining the rate of vertical transmission for ZIKV in its principal vector, Aedes aegypti, and the vector competence of vertically infected progeny. Aedes aegypti females that consumed a blood meal provisioned with ZIKV were maintained under three temperature conditions (27°C, 30°C, and 33°C) following the infectious blood meal and allowed to complete three reproductive cycles. The overall vertical transmission rate was 6.5% (95% CI = 3.9-9.9). Vertical transmission of ZIKV was observed across all temperature conditions and virus detected in adult progeny up to 2 weeks postemergence. In total, 3.4% (95% CI = 1.6-6.2) of adult progeny produced saliva with ZIKV, indicating their vector competence. These results suggest the virus may be maintained in Ae. aegypti populations without a vertebrate host for short periods.

Current and future spatial assessment of biological control as a mechanism to reduce economic losses and carbon emissions: the case of Solanum sisymbriifolium in Africa

BACKGROUND

Solanum sisymbriifolium is a native plant of South America introduced into Africa, which has detrimental effects on crop yields, and on the environment due to weed control treatment by burning. In South America, S. sisymbriifolium is naturally controlled by the beetle Gratiana spadicea, making this a potential option for its control in Africa. Here, we aim to generate current and future scenarios for the introduction of G. spadicea as a biocontrol agent in Africa, analysing: (i) current and future effective biocontrol areas; (ii) potentially avoided economic losses (AEL), and chemical control costs and savings; and (iii) avoided carbon emissions (ACE) associated with the non-burning of crop fields. We combine species distribution models (SDM) with land cover maps to estimate current and future effective biocontrol considering Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios. We then estimate AEL and ACE using biocontrol, and chemical control costs and savings.

RESULTS

The effective biocontrol area reached 392 405 km² in 18 countries, representing 40% of potentially affected croplands. Climate change induced a decrease in affected croplands and effective biocontrol. The estimated AEL reached US$45 447.2 ± 5617.3 billion distributed across 16 countries, while the estimated chemical control costs and savings reached US$1988.5 billion and 1411.8 billion, respectively. Potential ACE reached 36.3 ± 5.4 Tg.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study provides evidence for the potential benefits of biological controllers on economic losses and carbon emissions, which can be incorporated into sustainable development in low-income countries.

Importance of microenvironment to arbovirus vector distribution in an urban area, São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION:

The study of the landscape ecology, biological microhabitat, and epidemiological implications for the distribution of the main vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus contribute to the prevention and control actions regarding the diseases they transmit.

METHODS:

This study sought to assess data on positive properties of the vector control program activities from 1998 to 2010. An entomological survey was also carried out on a sample of buildings collecting larvae and pupae from containers between October and April (spring / summer) from 2002 to 2005. We assessed the physico-chemical data of the water in 20% of positive containers. The vegetation and urbanization were assessed with the aid of satellite images and microenvironments were classified as urbanized, woods, and shrubs. The data were analyzed using statistical and geoprocessing software.

RESULTS:

Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus colonized all types of microhabitats and microenvironments, predominantly in the urbanized area, in isolation and in coexistence. The microhabitat of Ae. aegypti showed a temperature gradient greater than that of Ae. albopictus, and there was an association with urbanized areas for the first species and wooded areas for the last species.

CONCLUSIONS:

Landscape ecology and intra-urban differences favor different microclimates, which contribute to the coexistence of species in the urban environment in an area close to the forest, raising the risk of other arbovirus infections in urban areas. The ecological niche should be considered for Ae. albopictus. Entomological and virologic monitoring are suggested as arbovirus surveillance actions in urban infested centers near preserved forests.

Spatial Quantification of the Population Exposed to Cryptococcus neoformans and Cryptococcus gattii Species Complexes in Europe: Estimating the Immunocompetent and HIV/AIDS Patients Under Risk

Cryptococcus is an important fungal pathogen worldwide, causing serious clinical manifestations that can affect immunocompetent patients and can be particularly severe for immunocompromised patients. The Cryptococcus gattii s.s. (AFLP4/VGI), Cryptococcus tetragattii (AFLP/VGIV), Cryptococcus neoformans, and Cryptococcus deneoformans have been isolated from both clinical and environmental sources in Europe. We aim to quantify the people in Europe and the entire Mediterranean area who are under risk associated with each of the three fungal pathogens in a spatially explicit way, generating a series of maps and population statistics per country. Niche modeling was applied to estimate the potential distribution of each fungal pathogen, then these models were overlapped with a map of population density to estimate risk levels. The potential number of people per risk level and per country was quantified using a map of population count per pixel. Prevalence of HIV per country was also included in the analysis to quantify the HIV-infected population under potential risk. People under risk associated with exposure to C. gattii species (C. gattii s.s. and C. tetragattii) reached 137.65 million, whereas those exposed to C. neoformans and C. deneoformans were 268.58 and 360.78 million people, respectively. More than a half million HIV-infected patients are exposed to each of the two species of the C. neoformans species complex, and more than 200,000 to the C. gattii species complex. The present results can be useful for public health planning by European governments, focusing on the provision of inputs for a "screen-and-treat" approach, availability of medical resources, and continuous monitoring programs in risk zones.

In Vivo Delivery of Nucleic Acid-Encoded Monoclonal Antibodies

Antibody immunotherapy is revolutionizing modern medicine. The field has advanced dramatically over the past 40 years, driven in part by major advances in isolation and manufacturing technologies that have brought these important biologics to the forefront of modern medicine. However, the global uptake of monoclonal antibody (mAb) biologics is impeded by biophysical and biochemical liabilities, production limitations, the need for cold-chain storage and transport, as well as high costs of manufacturing and distribution. Some of these hurdles may be overcome through transient in vivo gene delivery platforms, such as non-viral synthetic plasmid DNA and messenger RNA vectors that are engineered to encode optimized mAb genes. These approaches turn the body into a biological factory for antibody production, eliminating many of the steps involved in bioprocesses and providing several other significant advantages, and differ from traditional gene therapy (permanent delivery) approaches. In this review, we focus on nucleic acid delivery of antibody employing synthetic plasmid DNA vector platforms, and RNA delivery, these being important approaches that are advancing simple, rapid, in vivo expression and having an impact in animal models of infectious diseases and cancer, among others.

Geographic shifts in the bioclimatic suitability for Aedes aegypti under climate change scenarios in Colombia

The Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika viruses are arboviruses predominantly transmitted to humans through the bite of the female mosquito Aedes aegypti. Currently, the vector represents a potential epidemiological risk in several Latin American and Pacific countries. However, little is known about the geographical distribution and bioclimatic suitability of this mosquito in the projected climate change scenarios in Colombia. Using a species distribution model of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) based on presence-only records obtained from Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), land elevation obtained from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and bioclimatic variables (WorldClim), we produced environmental suitability maps of this mosquito vector for present and future geographic distribution. The future distribution were constructed based on the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) for the years 2050 and 2070, projected according to the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For the current conditions, Colombia has ~140,612.8 square km of areas with the possible presence of the vector; however, for the future, this will be reduced by more than 30%. For the future conditions, the suitable areas for A. aegypti decreased compared to the present, mainly for the year 2070 under RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5, however, the probability of mosquito occurrence increases in some departments of Colombia. Areas susceptible to the presence of A. aegypti are affected by climate change. The Caribbean and Andean regions have a high probability of mosquito distribution; therefore, control and epidemiological surveillance are required in these areas. The results can serve as an input to define preventive and control measures, especially in areas with a higher risk of contracting the virus.

Identifying high risk areas of Zika virus infection by meteorological factors in Colombia

BACKGROUND

Several Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreaks have occurred since October 2015. Because there is no effective treatment for ZIKV infection, developing an effective surveillance and warning system is currently a high priority to prevent ZIKV infection. Despite Aedes mosquitos having been known to spread ZIKV, the calculation approach is diverse, and only applied to local areas. This study used meteorological measurements to monitor ZIKV infection due to the high correlation between climate change and Aedes mosquitos and the convenience to obtain meteorological data from weather monitoring stations.

METHODS

This study applied the Bayesian structured additive regression modeling approach to include spatial interactive terms with meteorological factors and a geospatial function in a zero-inflated Poisson model. The study area contained 32 administrative departments in Colombia from October 2015 to December 2017. Weekly ZIKV infection cases and daily meteorological measurements were collected. Mapping techniques were adopted to visualize spatial findings. A series of model selections determined the best combinations of meteorological factors in the same model.

RESULTS

When multiple meteorological factors are considered in the same model, both total rainfall and average temperature can best assess the geographic disparities of ZIKV infection. Meanwhile, a 1-in. increase in rainfall is associated with an increase in the logarithm of relative risk (logRR) of ZIKV infection of at most 1.66 (95% credible interval [CI] = 1.09, 2.15) as well as a 1 °F increase in average temperature is significantly associated with at most 0.79 (95% CI = 0.12, 1.22) increase in the logRR of ZIKV. Moreover, after controlling rainfall and average temperature, an independent geospatial function in the model results in two departments with an excessive ZIKV risk which may be explained by unobserved factors other than total rainfall and average temperature.

CONCLUSION

Our study found that meteorological factors are significantly associated with ZIKV infection across departments. The study determined both total rainfall and average temperature as the best meteorological factors to identify high risk departments of ZIKV infection. These findings can help governmental agencies monitor at risk areas according to meteorological measurements, and develop preventions in those at risk areas in priority.

Immunogenicity and protection conferred by an optimized purified inactivated Zika vaccine in mice

After decades of inconsequential infections, and sporadic outbreaks in the Asia-Pacific region between 2007 and 2013, Zika virus caused a widespread epidemic in South America in 2015 that was complicated by severe congenital infections. After the WHO declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in February 2016, vaccine development efforts based on different platforms were initiated. Several candidates have since been evaluated in clinical phase I studies. Of these, a Zika purified inactivated vaccine (ZPIV), adjuvanted with aluminum hydroxide, developed by the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research (WRAIR), yielded high seroconversion rates. Sanofi Pasteur further optimized the vaccine in terms of production scale, purification conditions and regulatory compliance, using its experience in flavivirus vaccine development. Here we report that the resulting optimized vaccine (ZPIV-SP) elicited robust seroneutralizing antibody responses and provided complete protection from homologous Zika virus strain challenge in immunocompetent BALB/c mice. ZPIV-SP also showed improved immunogenicity compared with the first-generation vaccine, and improved efficacy in the more permissive interferon receptor-deficient A129 mice. Finally, analysis of the IgG response directed towards nonstructural protein 1 (NS1) suggests that viral NS1 was efficiently removed during the optimized purification process of ZPIV-SP. Together, these results suggest that the optimized vaccine is well suited for further evaluation in larger animal models and late-stage clinical studies.

Global spatial assessment of Aedes aegypti and Culex quinquefasciatus: a scenario of Zika virus exposure

Zika virus (ZIKV) is an arbovirus transmitted mainly by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Recent scientific evidence on Culex quinquefasciatus has suggested its potential as a vector for ZIKV, which may change the current risk zones. We aimed to quantify the world population potentially exposed to ZIKV in a spatially explicit way, considering the primary vector (A. aegypti) and the potential vector (C. quinquefasciatus). Our model combined species distribution modelling of mosquito species with spatially explicit human population data to estimate ZIKV exposure risk. We estimated the potential global distribution of C. quinquefasciatus and estimated its potential interaction zones with A. aegypti. Then we evaluated the risk zones for ZIKV considering both vectors. Finally, we quantified and compared the people under risk associated with each vector by risk level, country and continent. We found that C. quinquefasciatus had a more temperate distribution until 42° in both hemispheres, while the risk involving A. aegypti is concentrated mainly in tropical latitudes until 35° in both hemispheres. Globally, 4.2 billion people are under risk associated with ZIKV. Around 2.6 billon people are under very high risk associated with C. quinquefasciatus and 1 billion people associated with A. aegypti. Several countries could be exposed to ZIKV, which emphasises the need to clarify the competence of C. quinquefasciatus as a potential vector as soon as possible. The models presented here represent a tool for risk management, public health planning, mosquito control and preventive actions, especially to focus efforts on the most affected areas.

Quiescence in Aedes aegypti: Interpopulation Differences Contribute to Population Dynamics and Vectorial Capacity

The strategy of Aedes aegypti to prolong embryonic viability by quiescence has severe implications for geographic expansion and maintenance of mosquito populations in areas under control measures. We evaluated the effects of quiescence on biological parameters directly or indirectly associated with population dynamics and vectorial capacity in populations of this mosquito species from two Brazilian municipalities characterized as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika transmission areas. Egg viability, initial hatching time, post-embryonic development time, adult emergence rate, sexual proportion, adult size, fecundity, and fertility were analyzed using eggs stored for 10, 40, 70, 100, 130, and 160 d. Quiescence time reduced overall egg viability and post-embryonic development time in both municipalities but was more costly in Aracaju (100 d, 8 d) than in Recife (130 d, 7.5 d). Emergence rates increased in Recife when the eggs were older, but not in Aracaju. Significant deviations in sexual proportion, with male predominance, were observed in both populations. Initial hatch, fecundity, fertility, and adult size did not significantly influence egg quiescence time. These results indicate intrinsic and differential characteristics for each A. aegypti population, suggesting a differential cost of quiescence for population dynamics parameters that can indirectly affect vectorial capacity and control measures.

Dynamics of Zika virus outbreaks: an overview of mathematical modeling approaches

BACKGROUND

The Zika virus was first discovered in 1947. It was neglected until a major outbreak occurred on Yap Island, Micronesia, in 2007. Teratogenic effects resulting in microcephaly in newborn infants is the greatest public health threat. In 2016, the Zika virus epidemic was declared as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). Consequently, mathematical models were constructed to explicitly elucidate related transmission dynamics.

SURVEY METHODOLOGY

In this review article, two steps of journal article searching were performed. First, we attempted to identify mathematical models previously applied to the study of vector-borne diseases using the search terms "dynamics," "mathematical model," "modeling," and "vector-borne" together with the names of vector-borne diseases including chikungunya, dengue, malaria, West Nile, and Zika. Then the identified types of model were further investigated. Second, we narrowed down our survey to focus on only Zika virus research. The terms we searched for were "compartmental," "spatial," "metapopulation," "network," "individual-based," "agent-based" AND "Zika." All relevant studies were included regardless of the year of publication. We have collected research articles that were published before August 2017 based on our search criteria. In this publication survey, we explored the Google Scholar and PubMed databases.

RESULTS

We found five basic model architectures previously applied to vector-borne virus studies, particularly in Zika virus simulations. These include compartmental, spatial, metapopulation, network, and individual-based models. We found that Zika models carried out for early epidemics were mostly fit into compartmental structures and were less complicated compared to the more recent ones. Simple models are still commonly used for the timely assessment of epidemics. Nevertheless, due to the availability of large-scale real-world data and computational power, recently there has been growing interest in more complex modeling frameworks.

DISCUSSION

Mathematical models are employed to explore and predict how an infectious disease spreads in the real world, evaluate the disease importation risk, and assess the effectiveness of intervention strategies. As the trends in modeling of infectious diseases have been shifting towards data-driven approaches, simple and complex models should be exploited differently. Simple models can be produced in a timely fashion to provide an estimation of the possible impacts. In contrast, complex models integrating real-world data require more time to develop but are far more realistic. The preparation of complicated modeling frameworks prior to the outbreaks is recommended, including the case of future Zika epidemic preparation.

Consensus and conflict among ecological forecasts of Zika virus outbreaks in the United States

Ecologists are increasingly involved in the pandemic prediction process. In the course of the Zika outbreak in the Americas, several ecological models were developed to forecast the potential global distribution of the disease. Conflicting results produced by alternative methods are unresolved, hindering the development of appropriate public health forecasts. We compare ecological niche models and experimentally-driven mechanistic forecasts for Zika transmission in the continental United States. We use generic and uninformed stochastic county-level simulations to demonstrate the downstream epidemiological consequences of conflict among ecological models, and show how assumptions and parameterization in the ecological and epidemiological models propagate uncertainty and produce downstream model conflict. We conclude by proposing a basic consensus method that could resolve conflicting models of potential outbreak geography and seasonality. Our results illustrate the usually-undocumented margin of uncertainty that could emerge from using any one of these predictions without reservation or qualification. In the short term, ecologists face the task of developing better post hoc consensus that accurately forecasts spatial patterns of Zika virus outbreaks. Ultimately, methods are needed that bridge the gap between ecological and epidemiological approaches to predicting transmission and realistically capture both outbreak size and geography.