Year-Round Respiratory Syncytial Virus Transmission in The Netherlands Following the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Prospective Nationwide Observational and Modeling Study

Inhibition, transition, and surge: dynamic evolution of pediatric respiratory pathogen trends amid COVID-19 pandemic policy adjustments

Background

The implementation of a zero-COVID policy for 3 years in China during the COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted a broad spectrum of acute respiratory tract infections (ARTIs). The epidemiological characteristics of ARTI pathogens in children following the cessation of the zero-COVID policy remain unclear.

Methods

Etiologically diagnostic data from 82,708 children with ARTIs at the Children's Hospital of Soochow University during 2016-2023 were analyzed for 8 pathogens (human respiratory syncytial virus [HRSV], influenza A [FluA], FluB, human parainfluenza virus [HPIV], adenovirus [ADV], human rhinovirus [HRV], bocavirus [BoV], and mycoplasma pneumoniae [MP]). The changes in respiratory infections in Suzhou, China during the first year (2020, Phase I) and the second and third years of the pandemic (2021-2022, Phase II) and the first year after the end of zero-COVID policy (2023, Phase III) versus that in the pre-pandemic years (2016-2019) were compared.

Results

When compared with the average pre-pandemic levels, the pathogen-positive rate decreased by 19.27% in Phase I (OR: 0.70; 95% CI: 0.67-0.74), increased by 32.87% in Phase II (OR: 1.78; 95% CI: 1.72-1.84), and increased by 79.16% in Phase III (OR: 4.58; 95% CI: 4.37-4.79). In Phase I, the positive rates of HRSV, FluA, ADV, and MP decreased by 26.72, 58.97, 72.85, and 67.87%, respectively, and the positive rates of FluB, HPIV, HRV, and BoV increased by 86.84, 25, 32.37, and 16.94%, respectively. In Phase III, the positive rates of HRSV, FluA, FluB, HPIV, ADV, and HRV increased by 39.74, 1046.15, 118.42, 116.57, 131.13, and 146.40%, respectively, while the positive rate of BoV decreased by 56.12%. MP was inhibited during the epidemic, and MP showed a delayed outbreak after the ending of the zero-COVID policy. Compared with the average pre-pandemic levels, the MP-positive rate in Phase III increased by 116.7% (OR: 2.86; 95% CI: 2.74-2.99), with the highest increase in 0-1-year-old children.

Conclusion

The strict and large-scale implementation of the zero-COVID policy in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic was the main driving factor for the sharp reduction in the rate of children's respiratory pathogenic infections. The termination of this policy can cause a resurgence or escalation of pathogenic infections.

Clinical Impact of Serious Respiratory Disease in Children Under the Age of 2 Years During the 2021-2022 Bronchiolitis Season in England, Scotland, and Ireland

BACKGROUND

Interventions introduced to reduce the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) led to a widespread reduction in childhood infections. However, from spring 2021 onwards the United Kingdom and Ireland experienced an unusual out-of-season epidemic of respiratory disease.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective observational study (BronchStart), enrolling children 0-23 months of age presenting with bronchiolitis, lower respiratory tract infection, or first episode of wheeze to 59 emergency departments across England, Scotland, and Ireland from May 2021 to April 2022. We combined testing data with national admissions datasets to infer the impact of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) disease.

RESULTS

The BronchStart study collected data on 17 899 presentations for 17 164 children. Risk factors for admission and escalation of care included prematurity and congenital heart disease, but most admissions were for previously healthy term-born children. Of those aged 0-11 months who were admitted and tested for RSV, 1907 of 3912 (48.7%) tested positive. We estimate that every year in England and Scotland 28 561 (95% confidence interval, 27 637-29 486) infants are admitted with RSV infection.

CONCLUSIONS

RSV infection was the main cause of hospitalizations in this cohort, but 51.3% of admissions in infants were not associated with the virus. The majority of admissions were in previously healthy term-born infants.

Inconsistent Increase in Age at Respiratory Syncytial Virus Hospitalization of Children Aged <2 Years During the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Pandemic: A Retrospective Multicenter Study in 4 European Countries

BACKGROUND

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic disrupted respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) seasonality. To optimize the use and evaluation of RSV infant immunization strategies, monitoring changes in RSV epidemiology is essential.

METHODS

Hospitalizations for acute respiratory infections (ARIs) and RSV-coded ARI in children <2 years were extracted in 4 European hospitals, according to predefined case definitions (International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision codes). Prepandemic RSV seasons (2017-2018 to 2019-2020) were compared to 2021-2022 and 2022-2023.

RESULTS

In 2021-2022 and 2022-2023, the peak number of RSV hospitalizations was higher than prepandemic peaks after short periods of RSV circulation, and lower than prepandemic peaks after long periods of RSV circulation. A greater proportion of RSV hospitalizations occurred in children 1 to <2 years in 2021-2022 in the Netherlands (18% vs 9%, P = .04). No increase in age was observed elsewhere. High-risk children represented a greater proportion of RSV hospitalizations during the pandemic. The proportion of pediatric intensive care unit admissions did not increase.

CONCLUSIONS

A decrease in population immunity has been linked to older age at RSV hospitalization. We did not observe an increase in age in 3 of the 4 participating countries. Broad age categories may have prevented detecting an age shift. Monitoring RSV epidemiology is essential as Europe implements RSV immunization.

Characterising the changes in RSV epidemiology in Beijing, China during 2015-2023: results from a prospective, multi-centre, hospital-based surveillance and serology study

Background

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) has posed substantial morbidity and mortality burden to young children and older adults globally. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic was reported to have altered RSV epidemiology and could have important implications for RSV prevention and control strategies. We aimed to compare RSV epidemiology in different phases of the COVID-19 pandemic with the pre-pandemic period by leveraging epidemiological, molecular, and serological data collected from a prospective respiratory pathogen surveillance and serology study.

Methods

This study was based on the data during July 1, 2015 to November 30, 2023 from the Respiratory Pathogen Surveillance System (RPSS), a sentinel-hospital based surveillance system of acute respiratory infections consisting of 35 hospitals that represent residents of all ages from all 16 districts in Beijing, China. RSV infection status was tested by RT-PCR and gene sequencing and phylogenetic analysis was conducted among the identified RSV strains. We further supplemented RPSS data with three serology surveys conducted during 2017-2023 that tested RSV IgG levels from serum specimens. RSV detection rate was calculated by calendar month and compared across RSV seasons (defined as the July 1 through June 30 of the following year). RSV IgG positivity proportion was calculated by quarter of the year and was correlated with quarterly aggregated RSV detection rate for understanding the relationship between infection and immunity at the population level.

Findings

Overall, a total of 52,931 respiratory specimens were collected and tested over the study period. RSV detection rates ranged from 1.24% (94/7594) in the 2017-2018 season to 2.80% (219/7824) in the 2018-2019 season, and from 1.06% (55/5165) in the 2022-2023 season to 2.98% (147/4938) in the 2021-2022 season during the pre-pandemic and pandemic period, respectively. ON1 and BA9 remained the predominant genotypes during the pandemic period; no novel RSV strains were identified. RSV circulation followed a winter-months seasonal pattern in most seasons. One exception was the 2020-2021 season when an extensive year-round circulation was observed, possibly associated with partial relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). The other exception was the 2022-2023 season when very low RSV activity was observed during the usual winter months (possibly due to the concurrent local COVID-19 epidemic), and followed by an out-of-season resurgence in the spring, with RSV detection persisting to the end of the study period (November 2023). During the two seasons above, we noted an age-group related asynchrony in the RSV detection rate; the RSV detection rate in young children remained similar (or even increased with borderline significance; 43/594, 7.24%, and 42/556, 7.55% vs 292/5293, 5.52%; P = 0.10 and P = 0.06, respectively) compared with the pre-pandemic seasons whereas the detection rate in older adults decreased significantly (8/1779, 0.45%, and 3/2021, 0.15% vs 160/10,348, 1.55%; P < 0.001 in two comparisons). Results from serology surveys showed significantly declined RSV IgG positivity in the 2022-2023 season compared to the pre-pandemic seasons (9.32%, 29/311 vs 20.16%, 100/496; P < 0.001); older adults had significantly higher RSV IgG positivity than young children in both pre-pandemic and pandemic periods (P values < 0.001).

Interpretation

Our study documented the trajectory of RSV detection along with the changes in the stringency of NPIs, measured IgG positivity, and local COVID-19 epidemics. The findings suggest the interplay between contact patterns, immunity dynamics, and SARS-CoV-2 infection in shaping the RSV epidemics of population of different ages. These findings provide novel insights into the potential drivers of RSV circulating patterns and have important implications for RSV prevention and control strategies.

Funding

The High-qualified Public Health Professionals Development Project, Capital's Funds for Health Improvement and Research, and the Public Health Personnel Training Support Program.

Resurgence of Respiratory Syncytial Virus in the Summer of 2021 in Denmark-a Large out-of-season Epidemic Affecting Older Children

Background

When coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) restrictions were lifted in Denmark in the spring of 2021, a surge in respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) cases followed, causing a large out-of-season epidemic. This study aims to investigate the summer epidemic compared with 3 typical pre-COVID-19 RSV winter seasons using Danish registers to identify RSV cases, RSV-related admissions, and use of intensive care treatment.

Methods

Incidence rates (IR) per 1000 person-years for RSV cases, RSV-related admissions, and intensive care treatment were calculated with 95% confidence interval (CI) for each season, stratified by age groups and incidence rate ratios (IRR) with 95% CI were calculated to compare the summer epidemic with the winter season for 2019-2020.

Results

In the summer epidemic, the IR of RSV cases and admissions exceeded previous winter seasons for all age groups. The highest increases in IRs were seen among children aged 2 to 3 years and 4 to 5 years. The IRR of cases were 4.6 (95% CI, 4.1-5.2) and 3.3 (2.6-4.2) and the IRR of admissions were 3.3 (2.7-4.2) and 3.8 (2.3-6.5) in the 2 age groups, respectively, when compared with the winter season 2019-2020.

Conclusions

Likely because of immunity debt following COVID-19 restrictions, the summer epidemic was significantly larger than previous winter seasons, most markedly among children aged 2 to 3 and 4 to 5 years but had a similar disease severity spectrum.

The role of viral interference in shaping RSV epidemics following the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) primarily affects infants, young children, and older adults, with seasonal outbreaks in the United States (US) peaking around December or January. Despite the limited implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions, disrupted RSV activity was observed in different countries following the 2009 influenza pandemic, suggesting possible viral interference from influenza. Although interactions between the influenza A/H1N1 pandemic virus and RSV have been demonstrated at an individual level, it remains unclear whether the disruption of RSV activity at the population level can be attributed to viral interference. In this work, we first evaluated changes in the timing and intensity of RSV activity across 10 regions of the US in the years following the 2009 influenza pandemic using dynamic time warping. We observed a reduction in RSV activity following the pandemic, which was associated with intensity of influenza activity in the region. We then developed an age-stratified, two-pathogen model to examine various hypotheses regarding viral interference mechanisms. Based on our model estimates, we identified three mechanisms through which influenza infections could interfere with RSV: 1) reducing susceptibility to RSV coinfection; 2) shortening the RSV infectious period in coinfected individuals; and 3) reducing RSV infectivity in coinfection. Our study offers statistical support for the occurrence of atypical RSV seasons following the 2009 influenza pandemic. Our work also offers new insights into the mechanisms of viral interference that contribute to disruptions in RSV epidemics and provides a model-fitting framework that enables the analysis of new surveillance data for studying viral interference at the population level.

Parental intention, attitudes, beliefs, trust and deliberation towards childhood vaccination in the Netherlands in 2022: Indications of change compared to 2013

BACKGROUND

Vaccine uptake within the Dutch National Immunisation Programme (NIP) has slightly declined since the COVID-19 pandemic. We studied psychosocial factors of vaccine uptake, namely parental intention, attitudes, beliefs, trust and deliberation (i.e., self-evidence), before (2013) and two years into the pandemic (2022).

METHODS

In 2022 and 2013, parents with a young child (aged < 3.5 years) participated in online surveys on vaccination (n = 1000 and 800, (estimated) response = 12.2 % and 37.2 %, respectively). Psychosocial factors were measured on 7-point Likert scales. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to study differences between parents in 2022 and 2013 in 'negative' scores (≤2) of psychosocial factors.

RESULTS

In both 2022 and 2013, most parents with a young child expressed positive intention (2022 = 83.1 %, 2013 = 87.0 %), attitudes (3 items: 2022 = 66.7 %-70.9 %, 2013 = 62.1 %-69.8 %) and trust (2022 = 51.8 %, 2013 = 52.0 %) towards the NIP and considered vaccinating their child as self-evident (2022 = 57.2 %, 2013 = 67.3 %). Compared to parents in 2013, parents in 2022 had significantly higher odds of reporting negative attitudes towards vaccination (3 items combined: OR = 2.84, 95 % CI = 1.09, 7.37), believing that vaccinations offer insufficient protection (OR = 4.89, 95 % CI = 3.19, 7.51), that the NIP is not beneficial for the protection of their child's health (OR = 2.23, 95 % CI = 1.15, 4.35), that vaccinating their child does not necessarily protect the health of other children (OR = 2.24, 95 % CI = 1.16, 4.33) or adults (OR = 2.22, 95 % CI = 1.32, 3.75) and that vaccinations could cause severe side effects (OR = 2.20, 95 % CI = 1.35, 3.58), preferring natural infection over vaccination (OR = 3.18, 95 % CI = 2.24, 4.51) and reporting low trust towards the NIP (OR = 1.73, 95 % CI = 1.08, 2.79).

CONCLUSIONS

Although most parents had positive intention, attitudes and trust towards vaccination and perceived vaccinating their child as self-evident, proportions of parents with negative scores were slightly larger in 2022 compared to 2013. Monitoring these determinants of vaccine uptake and developing appropriate interventions could contribute to sustaining high vaccine uptake.