Transmission of Non-B HIV Subtypes in the United Kingdom Is Increasingly Driven by Large Non-Heterosexual Transmission Clusters

From components to communities: bringing network science to clustering for molecular epidemiology

Defining clusters of epidemiologically related infections is a common problem in the surveillance of infectious disease. A popular method for generating clusters is pairwise distance clustering, which assigns pairs of sequences to the same cluster if their genetic distance falls below some threshold. The result is often represented as a network or graph of nodes. A connected component is a set of interconnected nodes in a graph that are not connected to any other node. The prevailing approach to pairwise clustering is to map clusters to the connected components of the graph on a one-to-one basis. We propose that this definition of clusters is unnecessarily rigid. For instance, the connected components can collapse into one cluster by the addition of a single sequence that bridges nodes in the respective components. Moreover, the distance thresholds typically used for viruses like HIV-1 tend to exclude a large proportion of new sequences, making it difficult to train models for predicting cluster growth. These issues may be resolved by revisiting how we define clusters from genetic distances. Community detection is a promising class of clustering methods from the field of network science. A community is a set of nodes that are more densely inter-connected relative to the number of their connections to external nodes. Thus, a connected component may be partitioned into two or more communities. Here we describe community detection methods in the context of genetic clustering for epidemiology, demonstrate how a popular method (Markov clustering) enables us to resolve variation in transmission rates within a giant connected component of HIV-1 sequences, and identify current challenges and directions for further work.

Reconstructing the Temporal Origin and the Transmission Dynamics of the HIV Subtype B Epidemic in St. Petersburg, Russia

The HIV/AIDS epidemic in Russia is among the fastest growing in the world. HIV epidemic burden is non-uniform in different Russian regions and diverse key populations. An explosive epidemic has been documented among people who inject drugs (PWID) starting from the mid-1990s, whereas presently, the majority of new infections are linked to sexual transmission. Nationwide, HIV sub-subtype A6 (previously called A_FSU) predominates, with the increasing presence of other subtypes, namely subtype B and CRF063_02A. This study explores HIV subtype B sequences from St. Petersburg, collected from 2006 to 2020, in order to phylogenetically investigate and characterize transmission clusters, focusing on their evolutionary dynamics and potential for further growth, along with a socio-demographic analysis of the available metadata. In total, 54% (107/198) of analyzed subtype B sequences were found grouped in 17 clusters, with four transmission clusters with the number of sequences above 10. Using Bayesian MCMC inference, tMRCA of HIV-1 subtype B was estimated to be around 1986 (95% HPD 1984-1991), whereas the estimated temporal origin for the four large clusters was found to be more recent, between 2001 and 2005. The results of our study imply a complex pattern of the epidemic spread of HIV subtype B in St. Petersburg, Russia, still in the exponential growth phase, and in connection to the men who have sex with men (MSM) transmission, providing a useful insight needed for the design of public health priorities and interventions.

Optimized phylogenetic clustering of HIV-1 sequence data for public health applications

Clusters of genetically similar infections suggest rapid transmission and may indicate priorities for public health action or reveal underlying epidemiological processes. However, clusters often require user-defined thresholds and are sensitive to non-epidemiological factors, such as non-random sampling. Consequently the ideal threshold for public health applications varies substantially across settings. Here, we show a method which selects optimal thresholds for phylogenetic (subset tree) clustering based on population. We evaluated this method on HIV-1 pol datasets (n = 14, 221 sequences) from four sites in USA (Tennessee, Washington), Canada (Northern Alberta) and China (Beijing). Clusters were defined by tips descending from an ancestral node (with a minimum bootstrap support of 95%) through a series of branches, each with a length below a given threshold. Next, we used pplacer to graft new cases to the fixed tree by maximum likelihood. We evaluated the effect of varying branch-length thresholds on cluster growth as a count outcome by fitting two Poisson regression models: a null model that predicts growth from cluster size, and an alternative model that includes mean collection date as an additional covariate. The alternative model was favoured by AIC across most thresholds, with optimal (greatest difference in AIC) thresholds ranging 0.007-0.013 across sites. The range of optimal thresholds was more variable when re-sampling 80% of the data by location (IQR 0.008 - 0.016, n = 100 replicates). Our results use prospective phylogenetic cluster growth and suggest that there is more variation in effective thresholds for public health than those typically used in clustering studies.

Transmission Clusters, Predominantly Associated With Men Who Have Sex With Men, Play a Main Role in the Propagation of HIV-1 in Northern Spain (2013–2018)

Viruses of HIV-1-infected individuals whose transmission is related group phylogenetically in transmission clusters (TCs). The study of the phylogenetic relations of these viruses and the factors associated with these individuals is essential to analyze the HIV-1 epidemic. In this study, we examine the role of TCs in the epidemiology of HIV-1 infection in Galicia and the Basque County, two regions of northern Spain. A total of 1,158 HIV-1-infected patients from both regions with new diagnoses (NDs) in 2013–2018 were included in the study. Partial HIV-1 pol sequences were analyzed phylogenetically by approximately maximum-likelihood with FastTree 2. In this analysis, 10,687 additional sequences from samples from HIV-1-infected individuals collected in Spain in 1999–2019 were also included to assign TC membership and to determine TCs’ sizes. TCs were defined as those which included viruses from ≥4 individuals, at least 50% of them Spaniards, and with ≥0.95 Shimodaira-Hasegawa-like node support in the phylogenetic tree. Factors associated to TCs were evaluated using odds ratios (OR) and their 95% CI. Fifty-one percent of NDs grouped in 162 TCs. Male patients (OR: 2.6; 95% CI: 1.5–4.7) and men having sex with men (MSM; OR: 2.1; 95% CI: 1.4–3.2) had higher odds of belonging to a TC compared to female and heterosexual patients, respectively. Individuals from Latin America (OR: 0.3; 95% CI: 0.2–0.4), North Africa (OR: 0.4; 95% CI: 0.2–1.0), and especially Sub-Saharan Africa (OR: 0.02; 95% CI: 0.003–0.2) were inversely associated to belonging to TCs compared to native Spaniards. Our results show that TCs are important components of the HIV-1 epidemics in the two Spanish regions studied, where transmission between MSM is predominant. The majority of migrants were infected with viruses not belonging to TCs that expand in Spain. Molecular epidemiology is essential to identify local peculiarities of HIV-1 propagation. The early detection of TCs and prevention of their expansion, implementing effective control measures, could reduce HIV-1 infections.

Spatiotemporal Patterns of CRF07_BC in China: A Population-Based Study of the HIV Strain With the Highest Infection Rates

The prevalence of CRF07_BC is 39.7% and has become the most infectious HIV strain in China. To study the transmission and diffusion trajectory of CRF07_BC in China and to prevent further expansion of its transmission. A total of 16,635 sequences of the CRF07_BC pol gene were collected from 1997-2020. We characterized the gene subtypes according to a phylogenetic tree analysis. A 0.50% molecular network was constructed to analyze the transmission relationship among different provinces for CRF07_BC and its two epidemic clusters. Spatial and temporal propagation characteristics were analyzed according to phylogeographic analysis. Finally, we evaluated the differences in transmission of CRF07_BC-O, and CRF07_BC-N. Our dataset included 8,816 sequences of CRF07_BC-N and 7,819 sequences of CRF07_BC-O. There were 7,132 CRF07_BC sequences in the molecular network, and the rate of clustered was 42.9%. Compared to CRF07_BC-O, CRF07_BC-N showed significantly (P<0.001) higher transmission-specific rates. CRF07_BC originated among injecting drug users (IDUs), and spread to men who have sex with men (MSMs) and heterosexual individuals (HETs), while MSMs also transmitted directly to HETs. CRF07_BC-O and CRF07_BC-N were prevalent in Xinjiang and Sichuan, respectively, before spreading interprovincially. In modern China, CRF07_BC-N occurs in five of the major economic zones. The CRF07_BC strain, which has contributed to the highest number of HIV infections in China, is divided into two epidemic clusters. Compared with CRF07_BC-O, risk of transmission is much greater in CRF07_BC-N, which is predominantly prevalent in economically developed provinces, and both MSMs and IDUs have transmitted this epidemic cluster to HETs. High-resolution, large-scale monitoring is a useful tool in assessing the trend and spread of the HIV epidemic. The rapidly developing economy of China requires an equally rapid response to the prevention and control of infectious diseases.

Many but small HIV-1 non-B transmission chains in the Netherlands

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to investigate introductions and spread of different HIV-1 subtypes in the Netherlands.

DESIGN

We identified distinct HIV-1 transmission chains in the Netherlands within the global epidemic context through viral phylogenetic analysis of partial HIV-1 polymerase sequences from individuals enrolled in the ATHENA national HIV cohort of all persons in care since 1996, and publicly available international background sequences.

METHODS

Viral lineages circulating in the Netherlands were identified through maximum parsimony phylogeographic analysis. The proportion of HIV-1 infections acquired in-country among heterosexuals and MSM was estimated from phylogenetically observed, national transmission chains using a branching process model that accounts for incomplete sampling.

RESULTS

As of 1 January 2019, 2589 (24%) of 10 971 (41%) HIV-1 sequenced individuals in ATHENA had non-B subtypes (A1, C, D, F, G) or circulating recombinant forms (CRF01AE, CRF02AG, CRF06-cpx). The 1588 heterosexuals were in 1224, and 536 MSM in 270 phylogenetically observed transmission chains. After adjustments for incomplete sampling, most heterosexual (75%) and MSM (76%) transmission chains were estimated to include only the individual introducing the virus (size = 1). Onward transmission occurred mostly in chains size 2-5 amongst heterosexuals (62%) and in chains size at least 10 amongst MSM (64%). Considering some chains originated in-country from other risk-groups, 40% (95% confidence interval: 36-44) of non-B-infected heterosexuals and 62% (95% confidence interval: 49-73) of MSM-acquired infection in-country.

CONCLUSION

Although most HIV-1 non-B introductions showed no or very little onward transmission, a considerable proportion of non-B infections amongst both heterosexuals and MSM in the Netherlands have been acquired in-country.

Sorting by Race/Ethnicity Across HIV Genetic Transmission Networks in Three Major Metropolitan Areas in the United States

An important component underlying the disparity in HIV risk between race/ethnic groups is the preferential transmission between individuals in the same group. We sought to quantify transmission between different race/ethnicity groups and measure racial assortativity in HIV transmission networks in major metropolitan areas in the United States. We reconstructed HIV molecular transmission networks from viral sequences collected as part of HIV surveillance in New York City, Los Angeles County, and Cook County, Illinois. We calculated assortativity (the tendency for individuals to link to others with similar characteristics) across the network for three candidate characteristics: transmission risk, age at diagnosis, and race/ethnicity. We then compared assortativity between race/ethnicity groups. Finally, for each race/ethnicity pair, we performed network permutations to test whether the number of links observed differed from that expected if individuals were sorting at random. Transmission networks in all three jurisdictions were more assortative by race/ethnicity than by transmission risk or age at diagnosis. Despite the different race/ethnicity proportions in each metropolitan area and lower proportions of clustering among African Americans than other race/ethnicities, African Americans were the group most likely to have transmission partners of the same race/ethnicity. This high level of assortativity should be considered in the design of HIV intervention and prevention strategies.

Epidemiological and phylogenetic analysis for non-B subtypes of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 in Busan, Korea

Recent data on non-B subtypes’ epidemiology among patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1) in Korea are lacking. We aimed to assess the changing trends in the epidemiology of non-B subtypes of HIV-1 in Korea using phyloepidemiological analyses. We analyzed the demographic records and sequencing data obtained from genotypic drug resistance tests between 2005 and 2019 from 517 patients infected with HIV attending a tertiary care hospital in Busan, Korea. Subtyping and phylogenetic analyses with reference sequences were performed. Additionally, transmission clusters were identified via maximum-likelihood trees. Non-B subtypes accounted for 21.3% of the 517 sequences. CRF01_AE (52.7%) was the most common non-B subtype, followed by CRF02_AG (16.4%), A1 (11.8%), and C (5.5%). The prevalence of non-B subtypes decreased from 36.4 to 13.4% by 2009, while it increased to 27.4% between 2015 and 2019. Among patients with non-B subtypes, the proportion of overseas sailors decreased from 66.7 to 7.5%; contrarily, the proportion of men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) increased from 0 to 46.9% over the study period. We identified 8 transmission clusters involving non-B subtypes, with sizes ranging from 2 to 4 patients, including 3 clusters containing MSM. Our results highlight the changes in the epidemiological trends of non-B subtypes of HIV-1 in Korea.

Increasing Frequency and Transmission of HIV-1 Non-B Subtypes among Men Who Have Sex with Men in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

In Switzerland, HIV-1 transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM) has been dominated by subtype B, whilst non-B subtypes are commonly attributed to infections acquired abroad among heterosexuals. Here, we evaluated the temporal trends of non-B subtypes and the characteristics of molecular transmission clusters (MTCs) among MSM.

METHODS

Sociodemographic and clinical data and partial pol sequences were obtained from participants enrolled in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). For non-B subtypes, maximum likelihood trees were constructed, from which Swiss MTCs were identified and analysed by transmission group.

RESULTS

Non-B subtypes were identified in 8.1% (416/5,116) of MSM participants. CRF01_AE was the most prevalent strain (3.5%), followed by A (1.2%), F (1.1%), CRF02_AG (1.1%), C (0.9%), and G (0.3%). Between 1990 and 2019, an increase in the proportion of newly diagnosed individuals (0/123[0%] to 11/32 [34%]) with non-B subtypes in MSM was found. Across all non-B subtypes, the majority of MSM MTCs were European. Larger MTCs were observed for MSM than heterosexuals.

CONCLUSIONS

We found a substantial increase in HIV-1 non-B subtypes among MSM in Switzerland and the occurrence of large MTCs, highlighting the importance of molecular surveillance in guiding public health strategies targeting the HIV-1 epidemic.

The Role of Phylogenetics in Discerning HIV-1 Mixing among Vulnerable Populations and Geographic Regions in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Review

To reduce global HIV-1 incidence, there is a need to understand and disentangle HIV-1 transmission dynamics and to determine the geographic areas and populations that act as hubs or drivers of HIV-1 spread. In Sub-Saharan Africa (sSA), the region with the highest HIV-1 burden, information about such transmission dynamics is sparse. Phylogenetic inference is a powerful method for the study of HIV-1 transmission networks and source attribution. In this review, we assessed available phylogenetic data on mixing between HIV-1 hotspots (geographic areas and populations with high HIV-1 incidence and prevalence) and areas or populations with lower HIV-1 burden in sSA. We searched PubMed and identified and reviewed 64 studies on HIV-1 transmission dynamics within and between risk groups and geographic locations in sSA (published 1995-2021). We describe HIV-1 transmission from both a geographic and a risk group perspective in sSA. Finally, we discuss the challenges facing phylogenetic inference in mixed epidemics in sSA and offer our perspectives and potential solutions to the identified challenges.

Study To Evaluate the Performance of a Point-of-Care Whole-Blood HIV Viral Load Test (SAMBA II HIV-1 Semi-Q Whole Blood)

Remote areas of many low and middle income (LMI) countries have poor access to HIV viral load (HIV VL) testing. The SAMBA II (simple amplification-based assay) Semi-Q whole-blood test (Diagnostics for the Real World [DRW], Cambridge, UK) is a point-of-care assay, which uses leucodepletion technology to allow whole-blood testing in remote settings. A total of 1,540 consecutive HIV-positive clinic patients in Cameroon (250), United Kingdom (633), Ukraine (412), and Zimbabwe (245) donated venous blood (all countries) and finger prick blood (all except UK) for testing on SAMBA II. SAMBA II results were compared with simultaneous plasma results on the Abbott RealTime HIV-1 (Abbott Molecular, Des Plaines, IL) viral load assay and interpreted as either <1,000 RNA copies/ml or ≥1,000 RNA copies/ml. For 1,528 venous whole-blood samples tested on SAMBA II, overall percent agreement with the reference test at a cutoff HIV VL of ≥1,000 copies/ml was 96.9% (1,480/1,528; 95% confidence interval [CI], 95.9% to 97.7%), negative percent agreement was 97.7% (1,259/1,289; 95% CI, 96.7% to 98.4%), and positive percent agreement was 92.5% (221/239; 95% CI, 88.4% to 95.5%). For 854 finger prick samples, there was 95.0% (811/854; 95% CI, 93.3% to 96.3%) overall percent agreement, 98.0% (625/638; 95% CI, 96.5% to 98.9%) negative percent agreement, and 86.1% (186/216; 95% CI, 80.8% to 90.4%) positive percent agreement. These rose to 93.5% (82.1% to 98.6%), 97.6% (95.6% to 98.8%), and 95.6% (93.3% to 97.3%) after exclusion of aberrant results from the Ukraine center. These results show a high level of agreement between SAMBA-II and a laboratory-based assay. SAMBA-II has a performance that is suitable to use as a VL point-of-care assay in remote settings.

HIV transmission network analysis allows identifying unreported risk factors in HIV-positive blood donors in France

OBJECTIVES

As sex between men is a major route of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in most western countries, restrictive deferral rules for blood donation have largely been implemented regarding men having sex with men (MSM). Here, we sought here to assign unreported HIV risk factors in blood donors (BDs) and reevaluated the MSM-associated fraction of HIV transfusion residual risk (%RR_MSM ).

METHODS

We applied a genetic distance-based approach to infer an HIV transmission network for 384 HIV sequences from French BDs and 1337 HIV sequences from individuals with known risk factors (ANRS PRIMO primary HIV infection cohort). We validated the possibility of assigning a risk factor according to clustering using assortative mixing. Finally, we recalculated the %RR_MSM .

RESULTS

A total of 81 of 284 (28.5%) male and 5 of 100 (5%) female BDs belonged to a cluster; 72 (88.9%) of the 81 male BDs belonged to MSM clusters. After cluster correction, 8 of 67 (11.9%), 4 of 21 (19.0%), and 19 of 88 (21.6%) HIV-positive (HIV+) male BDs with heterosexual, other, or unknown risk factors could be reclassified as MSM, accounting for 10.9% of the total HIV+ male BDs. Overall, 139 of 284 HIV+ male donors (48.9%) could be considered MSM between 2000 and 2016 in France. Between 2005 and 2016, the %RR_MSM increase varied from 0 to 19%, without differing significantly from the %RR_MSM before reclassification.

CONCLUSION

Network inference can be used to complement declaration data on risk factors for HIV infection in BDs. This approach, complementary to behavioral studies, is a valuable tool to evaluate the effect of changes in deferral criteria on BD compliance.

Dynamics of HIV-1 Molecular Networks Reveal Effective Control of Large Transmission Clusters in an Area Affected by an Epidemic of Multiple HIV Subtypes

This study reconstructed molecular networks of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission history in an area affected by an epidemic of multiple HIV-1 subtypes and assessed the efficacy of strengthened early antiretroviral therapy (ART) and regular interventions in preventing HIV spread. We collected demographic and clinical data of 2221 treatment-naïve HIV-1–infected patients in a long-term cohort in Shenyang, Northeast China, between 2008 and 2016. HIV pol gene sequencing was performed and molecular networks of CRF01_AE, CRF07_BC, and subtype B were inferred using HIV-TRACE with separate optimized genetic distance threshold. We identified 168 clusters containing ≥ 2 cases among CRF01_AE-, CRF07_BC-, and subtype B-infected cases, including 13 large clusters (≥ 10 cases). Individuals in large clusters were characterized by younger age, homosexual behavior, more recent infection, higher CD4 counts, and delayed/no ART (P < 0.001). The dynamics of large clusters were estimated by proportional detection rate (PDR), cluster growth predictor, and effective reproductive number (R_e). Most large clusters showed decreased or stable during the study period, indicating that expansion was slowing. The proportion of newly diagnosed cases in large clusters declined from 30 to 8% between 2008 and 2016, coinciding with an increase in early ART within 6 months after diagnosis from 24 to 79%, supporting the effectiveness of strengthened early ART and continuous regular interventions. In conclusion, molecular network analyses can thus be useful for evaluating the efficacy of interventions in epidemics with a complex HIV profile.

Phylogenetic clustering networks among heterosexual migrants with new HIV diagnoses post-migration in Australia

Background

It is estimated that approximately half of new HIV diagnoses among heterosexual migrants in Victoria, Australia, were acquired post-migration. We investigated the characteristics of phylogenetic clusters in notified cases of HIV among heterosexual migrants.

Methods

Partial HIV pol sequences obtained from routine clinical genotype tests were linked to Victorian HIV notifications with the following exposures listed on the notification form: heterosexual sexual contact, injecting drug use, bisexual sexual contact, male-to male sexual contact or heterosexual sexual contact in combination with injecting drug use, unknown exposure. Those with heterosexual sexual contact as the only exposure were the focus of this study, with the other exposures included to better understand transmission networks. Additional reference sequences were extracted from the Los Alamos database. Maximum likelihood methods were used to infer the phylogeny and the robustness of the resulting tree was assessed using bootstrap analysis. Phylogenetic clusters were defined on the basis of bootstrap and genetic distance.

Results

HIV pol sequences were available for 332 of 445 HIV notifications attributed to only heterosexual sexual contact in Victoria from 2005–2014. Forty-three phylogenetic clusters containing at least one heterosexual migrant were detected, 30 (70%) of which were pairs. The characteristics of these phylogenetic clusters varied considerably by cluster size. Pairs were more likely to be composed of people living with HIV from a single country of birth (p = 0.032). Larger clusters (n≥3) were more likely to contain people born in Australian/New Zealand (p = 0.002), migrants from more than one country of birth (p = 0.013) and viral subtype-B, the most common subtype in Australia (p = 0.006). Pairs were significantly more likely to contain females (p = 0.037) and less likely to include HIV diagnoses with male-to-male sexual contact reported as a possible exposure (p<0.001) compared to larger clusters (n≥3).

Conclusion

Migrants appear to be at elevated risk of HIV acquisition, in part due to intimate relationships between migrants from the same country of origin, and in part due to risks associated with the broader Australian HIV epidemic. However, there was no evidence of large transmission clusters driven by heterosexual transmission between migrants. A multipronged approach to prevention of HIV among migrants is warranted.

Evaluation of HIV Transmission Clusters among Natives and Foreigners Living in Italy

We aimed at evaluating the characteristics of HIV-1 molecular transmission clusters (MTCs) among natives and migrants living in Italy, diagnosed between 1998 and 2018. Phylogenetic analyses were performed on HIV-1 polymerase (pol) sequences to characterise subtypes and identify MTCs, divided into small (SMTCs, 2–3 sequences), medium (MMTCs, 4–9 sequences) and large (LMTCs, ≥10 sequences). Among 3499 drug-naïve individuals enrolled in the Italian Cohort Naive Antiretroviral (ICONA) cohort (2804 natives; 695 migrants), 726 (20.8%; 644 natives, 82 migrants) were involved in 228 MTCs (6 LMTCs, 36 MMTCs, 186 SMTCs). Migrants contributed 14.4% to SMTCs, 7.6% to MMTCs and 7.1% to LMTCs, respectively. HIV-1 non-B subtypes were found in 51 MTCs; noteworthy was that non-B infections involved in MTCs were more commonly found in natives (n = 47) than in migrants (n = 4). Factors such as Italian origin, being men who have sex with men (MSM), younger age, more recent diagnosis and a higher CD4 count were significantly associated with MTCs. Our findings show that HIV-1 clustering transmission among newly diagnosed individuals living in Italy is prevalently driven by natives, mainly MSM, with a more recent diagnosis and frequently infected with HIV-1 non-B subtypes. These results can contribute to monitoring of the HIV epidemic and guiding the public health response to prevent new HIV infections.

Molecular Epidemiology of the HIV-1 Subtype B Sub-Epidemic in Bulgaria

HIV-1 subtype B is the predominant strain in Bulgaria, yet little is known about the molecular epidemiology of these infections, including its origin and transmissibility. We used a phylodynamics approach by combining and analyzing 663 HIV-1 polymerase (pol) sequences collected from persons diagnosed with HIV/AIDS between 1988-2018 and associated epidemiologic data to better understand this sub-epidemic in Bulgaria. Using network analyses at a 1.5% genetic distance threshold (d) we found several large phylogenetic clusters composed mostly of men who have sex with men (MSM) and male heterosexuals (HET). However, at d = 0.5%, used to identify more recent transmission, the largest clusters dissociated to become smaller in size. The majority of female HET and persons with other transmission risks were singletons or pairs in the network. Phylogenetic analysis of the Bulgarian pol sequences with publicly available global sequences showed that subtype B was likely introduced into Bulgaria from multiple countries, including Israel and several European countries. Our findings indicate that subtype B was introduced into Bulgaria multiple times since 1988 and then infections rapidly spread among MSM and non-disclosed MSM. These high-risk behaviors continue to spread subtype B infection in Bulgaria as evidenced by the large clusters at d = 0.5%. Relatively low levels of antiretroviral drug resistance were observed in our study. Prevention strategies should continue to include increased testing and linkage to care and treatment, as well as expanded outreach to the MSM communities.

High Prevalence of Sequences Included in Transmission Clusters Within Newly Diagnosed HIV-1 Patients in Southern Spain (2004-2015)

The presence of transmission clusters (TCs) and their epidemiological characteristics in a treatment-naive cohort of HIV-1 patients in southern Spain over a decade (2004-2015) were evaluated. Protease and reverse transcriptase sequences provided by each genotype test were used in the phylogenetic study, performed first by the neighbor-joining method and then confirmed by Bayesian analysis. We collected clinical, immunovirological, and demographic data for all patients included. Our cohort comprised 757 patients, 428 (56.5%) belonging to a TC. Overall, we found 123 TCs, 21 of them comprising five or more individuals and three with ≥10 sequences. Forty-three TCs (35.0%) remained active. The clustered patients were mainly men (92.8%) who had sex with men (MSM) (81.5%), Spanish (80.6%), and young adults (median age at diagnosis of 32.6 years). They had lower percentages of late diagnosis and AIDS cases (42.1% and 13.6%, respectively), whereas the presence of recent seroconverters (31.1%), HIV-1 B subtypes (79.4%), and transmission drug resistance (20.3%) increased within TCs, with regard to not-clustered individuals. Among the TCs of non-B variants, circulating recombinant forms (CRF) were predominant (87.5%), with the highest frequencies for CRF19_cpx (17.0% of non-B subtype sequences in TCs); CRF02_AG (15.9%); and CRF01_AE (9.1%). In conclusion, over half of our cohort was included within a TC. More than a third of TCs found could be considered active transmission events. Belonging to a TC was related to MSM, Spanish origin, recent seroconversion, high prevalence of resistance mutations, and B HIV subtype. Among the non-B genetic forms in TCs, we found a high prevalence of CRF19_cpx, CRF02_AG, and CRF01_AE variants.

Recent and Rapid Transmission of HIV Among People Who Inject Drugs in Scotland Revealed Through Phylogenetic Analysis

Background

Harm reduction has dramatically reduced HIV incidence among people who inject drugs (PWID). In Glasgow, Scotland, <10 infections/year have been diagnosed among PWID since the mid-1990s. However, in 2015 a sharp rise in diagnoses was noted among PWID; many were subtype C with 2 identical drug-resistant mutations and some displayed low avidity, suggesting the infections were linked and recent.

Methods

We collected Scottish pol sequences and identified closely related sequences from public databases. Genetic linkage was ascertained among 228 Scottish, 1820 UK, and 524 global sequences. The outbreak cluster was extracted to estimate epidemic parameters.

Results

All 104 outbreak sequences originated from Scotland and contained E138A and V179E. Mean genetic distance was <1% and mean time between transmissions was 6.7 months. The average number of onward transmissions consistently exceeded 1, indicating that spread was ongoing.

Conclusions

In contrast to other recent HIV outbreaks among PWID, harm reduction services were not clearly reduced in Scotland. Nonetheless, the high proportion of individuals with a history of homelessness (45%) suggests that services were inadequate for those in precarious living situations. The high prevalence of hepatitis C (>90%) is indicative of sharing of injecting equipment. Monitoring the epidemic phylogenetically in real time may accelerate public health action.

Reconstruction of the Genetic History and the Current Spread of HIV-1 Subtype A in Germany

HIV-1 non-B infections have been increasing in Europe for several years. In Germany, subtype A belongs to the most abundant non-B subtypes showing an increasing prevalence of 8.3% among new infections in 2016. Here we trace the origin and examine the current spread of the German HIV-1 subtype A epidemic. Bayesian coalescence and birth-death analyses were performed with 180 German HIV-1 pol sequences and 528 related and publicly available sequences to reconstruct the population dynamics and fluctuations for each of the transmission groups. Our reconstructions indicate two distinct sources of the German subtype A epidemic, with an Eastern European and an Eastern African lineage both cocirculating in the country. A total of 13 German-origin clusters were identified; among these, 6 clusters showed recent activity. Introductions leading to further countrywide spread originated predominantly from Eastern Africa when introduced before 2005. Since 2005, however, spreading introductions have occurred exclusively within the Eastern European clade. Moreover, we observed changes in the main route of subtype A transmission. The beginning of the German epidemic (1985 to 1995) was dominated by heterosexual transmission of the Eastern African lineage. Since 2005, transmissions among German men who have sex with men (MSM) have been increasing and have been associated with the Eastern European lineage. Infections among people who inject drugs dominated between 1998 and 2005. Our findings on HIV-1 subtype A infections provide new insights into the spread of this virus and extend the understanding of the HIV epidemic in Germany.IMPORTANCE HIV-1 subtype A is the second most prevalent subtype worldwide, with a high prevalence in Eastern Africa and Eastern Europe. However, an increase of non-B infections, including subtype A infections, has been observed in Germany and other European countries. There has simultaneously been an increased flow of refugees into Europe and especially into Germany, raising the question of whether the surge in non-B infections resulted from this increased immigration or whether German transmission chains are mainly involved. This study is the first comprehensive subtype A study from a western European country analyzing in detail its phylogenetic origin, the impact of various transmission routes, and its current spread. The results and conclusions presented provide new and substantial insights for virologists, epidemiologists, and the general public health sector. In this regard, they should be useful to those authorities responsible for developing public health intervention strategies to combat the further spread of HIV/AIDS.

Characterisation of HIV-1 molecular transmission clusters among newly diagnosed individuals infected with non-B subtypes in Italy

OBJECTIVE

We evaluated the characteristics of HIV-1 molecular transmission clusters (MTCs) in 1890 newly diagnosed individuals infected with non-B subtypes between 2005 and 2017 in Italy.

METHODS

Phylogenetic analyses were performed on pol sequences to characterise subtypes/circulating recombinant forms and identify MTCs. MTCs were divided into small (SMTCs, 2-3 sequences), medium (MMTCs, 4-9 sequences) and large (LMTCs, ≥10 sequences). Factors associated with MTCs were evaluated using logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

145 MTCs were identified and involved 666 individuals (35.2%); 319 of them (16.9%) were included in 13 LMTCs, 111 (5.9%) in 20 MMTCs and 236 (12.5%) in 112 SMTCs. Compared with individuals out of MTCs, individuals involved in MTCs were prevalently Italian (72.7% vs 30.9%, p<0.001), male (82.9% vs 62.3%, p<0.001) and men who have sex with men (MSM) (43.5% vs 14.5%, p<0.001). Individuals in MTCs were also younger (median (IQR) years: 41 (35-49) vs 43 (36-51), p<0.001) and had higher CD4 cell count in comparison with individuals out of MTCs (median (IQR): 10⁹/L: 0.4 (0.265-0.587) vs 0.246 (0.082-0.417), p<0.001). The viral load remained stable between the two groups (median (IQR) log₁₀ copies/mL: 4.8 (4.2-5.5) vs 5.0 (4.3-5.5), p=0.87). Logistic regression confirmed that certain factors such as being MSM, of Italian origin, younger age and higher CD4 cell count were significantly associated with MTCs.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings show that HIV-1 newly diagnosed individuals infected with non-B subtypes are involved in several MTCs in Italy. These MTCs include mainly Italians and MSM and highlight the complex phenomenon characterising the HIV-1 spread. This is important especially in view of monitoring the HIV epidemic and guiding the public health response.

Re-emergence of HIV related to injecting drug use despite a comprehensive harm reduction environment: a cross-sectional analysis

BACKGROUND

In 2015, an outbreak of HIV was identified among people who inject drugs (PWID) in the Greater Glasgow and Clyde (GGC) area of Scotland, an area which distributes more than 1 million needles and syringes per year. This is the largest such incident in the UK for 30 years. Here, we provide an epidemiological analysis of the impact of the outbreak on HIV prevalence trends in the population and the individual and environmental risk factors associated with infection.

METHODS

Four cross-sectional, anonymous, bio-behavioural surveys of almost 4000 PWID attending services providing injecting equipment across GGC between 2011 and 2018 were analysed. Participants were recruited by trained independent interviewers and eligible if they had a history of injecting drug use, either current (within the past 6 months) or historical. Interviewers asked participants questions about demographics, behaviours, and service use and to give a dried blood spot sample that was tested anonymously for the presence of blood-borne viruses. Our primary outcome measure was HIV infection status, as determined by the dried blood spot sample. We removed duplicates and participants with missing data and used all remaining participants to examine trends in prevalence of HIV infection, risk behaviours, and intervention coverage. We then did multivariate analysis with adjusted and unadjusted logistic regression to determine individual and environmental factors associated with HIV infection.

FINDINGS

The overall GGC sample comprised 3641 PWID; data from 2712 PWID were available for multivariate analysis after further removal of duplicate participants and missing data. Between 2011 and 2018, HIV prevalence in GGC rose from 0·1% (95% CI 0·0-0·6) to 4·8% (3·4-6·2) overall, and from 1·1% (0·2-6·2) to 10·8% (7·4-15·5) in Glasgow city centre. Over the same period, the prevalence of cocaine injecting in all individuals in GGC in our sample rose from 16% (129/805) to 50% (291/583) overall, and from 37% (26/70) to 77% (117/153) in Glasgow city centre. HIV infection was more likely among PWID who had participated in surveys after the start of the outbreak in 2014 (adjusted odds ratio 3·4, 95% CI 1·7-6·7; p=0·00052), been homeless in the past 6 months (3·0, 1·7-5·0; p<0·0001), had had more than five incarcerations since they first began injecting (2·1, 1·2-3·7; p=0·0098); and had injected cocaine within the past 6 months (6·7, 3·8-12·1; p<0·0001). Age (per 1-year increase) was also a significant factor (1·1, 1·0-1·1; p=0·0016) but sex was not (1·7, 0·9-3·2; p=0·083).

INTERPRETATION

Despite high coverage of harm reduction interventions, Glasgow has experienced a rapid rise in prevalence of HIV among its PWID population, associated with homelessness, incarceration, and a major shift to injection of cocaine. Robust surveillance through regular HIV testing of high-risk populations is crucial to ensure outbreaks are detected and rapid responses are informed by the best available evidence.

FUNDING

Health Protection Scotland.

Diverse Large HIV-1 Non-subtype B Clusters Are Spreading Among Men Who Have Sex With Men in Spain

In Western Europe, the HIV-1 epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) is dominated by subtype B. However, recently, other genetic forms have been reported to circulate in this population, as evidenced by their grouping in clusters predominantly comprising European individuals. Here we describe four large HIV-1 non-subtype B clusters spreading among MSM in Spain. Samples were collected in 9 regions. A pol fragment was amplified from plasma RNA or blood-extracted DNA. Phylogenetic analyses were performed via maximum likelihood, including database sequences of the same genetic forms as the identified clusters. Times and locations of the most recent common ancestors (MRCA) of clusters were estimated with a Bayesian method. Five large non-subtype B clusters associated with MSM were identified. The largest one, of F1 subtype, was reported previously. The other four were of CRF02_AG (CRF02_1; n = 115) and subtypes A1 (A1_1; n = 66), F1 (F1_3; n = 36), and C (C_7; n = 17). Most individuals belonging to them had been diagnosed of HIV-1 infection in the last 10 years. Each cluster comprised viruses from 3 to 8 Spanish regions and also comprised or was related to viruses from other countries: CRF02_1 comprised a Japanese subcluster and viruses from 8 other countries from Western Europe, Asia, and South America; A1_1 comprised viruses from Portugal, United Kingom, and United States, and was related to the A1 strain circulating in Greece, Albania and Cyprus; F1_3 was related to viruses from Romania; and C_7 comprised viruses from Portugal and was related to a virus from Mozambique. A subcluster within CRF02_1 was associated with heterosexual transmission. Near full-length genomes of each cluster were of uniform genetic form. Times of MRCAs of CRF02_1, A1_1, F1_3, and C_7 were estimated around 1986, 1989, 2013, and 1983, respectively. MRCA locations for CRF02_1 and A1_1 were uncertain (however initial expansions in Spain in Madrid and Vigo, respectively, were estimated) and were most probable in Bilbao, Spain, for F1_3 and Portugal for C_7. These results show that the HIV-1 epidemic among MSM in Spain is becoming increasingly diverse through the expansion of diverse non-subtype B clusters, comprising or related to viruses circulating in other countries.

HIV transmission networks among transgender women in Los Angeles County, CA, USA: a phylogenetic analysis of surveillance data

BACKGROUND

Transgender women are among the groups at highest risk for HIV infection, with a prevalence of 27·7% in the USA; and despite this known high risk, undiagnosed infection is common in this population. We set out to identify transgender women and their partners in a molecular transmission network to prioritise public health activities.

METHODS

Since 2006, HIV protease and reverse transcriptase gene (pol) sequences from drug resistance testing have been reported to the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health and linked to demographic data, gender, and HIV transmission risk factor data for each case in the enhanced HIV/AIDS Reporting System. We reconstructed a molecular transmission network by use of HIV-TRAnsmission Cluster Engine (with a pairwise genetic distance threshold of 0·015 substitutions per site) from the earliest pol sequences from 22 398 unique individuals, including 412 (2%) self-identified transgender women. We examined the possible predictors of clustering with multivariate logistic regression. We characterised the genetically linked partners of transgender women and calculated assortativity (the tendency for people to link to other people with the same attributes) for each transmission risk group.

FINDINGS

8133 (36·3%) of 22 398 individuals clustered in the network across 1722 molecular transmission clusters. Transgender women who indicated a sexual risk factor clustered at the highest frequency in the network, with 147 (43%) of 345 being linked to at least one other person (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2·0, p=0·0002). Transgender women were assortative in the network (assortativity 0·06, p<0·001), indicating that they tended to link to other transgender women. Transgender women were more likely than expected to link to other transgender women (OR 4·65, p<0·001) and cisgender men who did not identify as men who have sex with men (MSM; OR 1·53, p<0·001). Transgender women were less likely than expected to link to MSM (OR 0·75, p<0·001), despite the high prevalence of HIV among MSM. Transgender women were distributed across 126 clusters, and cisgender individuals linked to one transgender woman were 9·2 times more likely to link to a second transgender woman than other individuals in the surveillance database. Reconstruction of the transmission network is limited by sample availability, but sequences were available for more than 40% of diagnoses.

INTERPRETATION

Clustering of transgender women and the observed tendency for linkage with cisgender men who did not identify as MSM, shows the potential to use molecular epidemiology both to identify clusters that are likely to include undiagnosed transgender women with HIV and to improve the targeting of public health prevention and treatment services to transgender women.

FUNDING

California HIV and AIDS Research Program and National Institutes of Health-National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Exploring Evolutionary and Transmission Dynamics of HIV Epidemic in Serbia: Bridging Socio-Demographic With Phylogenetic Approach

Previous molecular studies of Serbian HIV epidemic identified the dominance of subtype B and presence of clusters related HIV-1 transmission, in particular among men who have sex with men (MSM). In order to get a deeper understanding of the complexities of HIV sub-epidemics in Serbia, epidemic trends, temporal origin and phylodynamic characteristics in general population and subpopulations were analyzed by means of mathematical modeling, phylogenetic analysis and latent class analysis (LCA). Fitting of the logistic curve of trends for a cumulative annual number of new HIV cases in 1984–2016, in general population and MSM transmission group, was performed. Both datasets fitted the logistic growth model, showing the early exponential phase of the growth curve. According to the suggested model, in the year 2030, the number of newly diagnosed HIV cases in Serbia will continue to grow, in particular in the MSM transmission group. Further, a detailed phylogenetic analysis was performed on 385 sequences from the period 1997–2015. Identification of transmission clusters, estimation of population growth (Ne), of the effective reproductive number (Re) and time of the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) were estimated employing Bayesian and maximum likelihood methods. A substantial proportion of 53% of subtype B sequences was found within transmission clusters/network. Phylodynamic analysis revealed Re over one during the whole period investigated, with the steepest slopes and a recent tMRCA for MSM transmission group subtype B clades, in line with a growing trend in the number of transmissions in years approaching the end of the study period. Contrary, heterosexual clades in both studied subtypes – B and C – showed modest growth and stagnation. LCA analysis identified five latent classes, with transmission clusters dominantly present in 2/5 classes, linked to MSM transmission living in the capital city and with the high prevalence of co-infection with HBV and/or other STIs.Presented findings imply that HIV epidemic in Serbia is still in the exponential growth phase, in particular, related to the MSM transmission, with estimated steep growth curve until 2030. The obtained results imply that an average new HIV patient in Serbia is a young man with concomitant sexually transmitted infection.

Prevalence and persistence of transmitted drug resistance mutations in the German HIV-1 Seroconverter Study Cohort

The prevalence of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) in antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naïve individuals remains stable in most developed countries despite a decrease in the prevalence of acquired drug resistance. This suggests that persistence and further transmission of HIV-1 that encodes transmitted drug resistance mutations (TDRMs) is occurring in ART-naïve individuals. In this study, we analysed the prevalence and persistence of TDRMs in the protease and reverse transcriptase-sequences of ART-naïve patients within the German HIV-1 Seroconverter Study Cohort who were infected between 1996 and 2017. The prevalence of TDRMs and baseline susceptibility to antiretroviral drugs were assessed using the Stanford HIVdb list and algorithm. Mean survival times of TDRMs were calculated by Kaplan-Meier analysis. The overall prevalence of TDR was 17.2% (95% CI 15.7–18.6, N = 466/2715). Transmitted NNRTI resistance was observed most frequently with 7.8% (95% CI 6.8–8.8), followed by NRTI resistance (5.0%, 95% CI 4.2–5.9) and PI resistance (2.8%, 95% CI 2.2–3.4). Total TDR (OR = 0.89, p = 0.034) and transmitted NRTI resistance (OR = 0.65, p = 0.000) decreased between 1996 and 2017 but has remained stable during the last decade. Viral susceptibility to NNRTIs (6.5%-6.9% for individual drugs) was mainly reduced, while <3% of the recommended NRTIs and PIs were affected. The longest mean survival times were calculated for the NNRTI mutations K103N (5.3 years, 95% CI 4.2–5.6) and E138A/G/K (8.0 years, 95% CI 5.8–10.2 / 7.9 years, 95% CI 5.4–10.3 / 6.7 years, 95% CI 6.7–6.7) and for the NRTI mutation M41L (6.4 years, 95% CI 6.0–6.7).The long persistence of single TDRMs indicates that onward transmission from ART-naïve individuals is the main cause for TDR in Germany. Transmitted NNRTI resistance was the most frequent TDR, showing simultaneously the highest impact on baseline ART susceptibility and on TDRMs with prolonged persistence. These results give cause for concern regarding the use of NNRTI in first-line regimens.

Increasing proportions of HIV-1 non-B subtypes and of NNRTI resistance between 2013 and 2016 in Germany: Results from the national molecular surveillance of new HIV-diagnoses

Background

Molecular surveillance of newly diagnosed HIV-infections is important for tracking trends in circulating HIV-variants, including those with transmitted drug resistances (TDR) to sustain ART efficacy.

Methods

Dried serum spots (DSS) are received together with the statutory notification of a new diagnosis. 'Recent infections' (<155 days) classified by a 'recent infection test algorithm' (BED-CEIA and clinical data) are genotyped in HIV-protease (PR), reverse transcriptase (RT) and integrase (INT) to determine the HIV-1 subtype, to calculate prevalence and trends of TDR, to predict baseline susceptibility and to identify potential transmission clusters for resistant variants.

Results

Between January 2013 and December 2016, 1,885 recent infections were analysed regarding the PR/RT genomic region, with 43.5% of these also being subjected to the analysis of INT. The proportion of HIV-1 non-B viruses (31.3%; 591/1,885) increased from 21.6% to 36.0%, particularly the subtypes A (5.0% to 8.3%) and C (3.2% to 7.7%; all p_trends < 0.01). The subtype A increment is mainly due to transmissions within men who have sex with men (MSM) while subtype C transmissions are associated with heterosexuals and people who inject drugs. The prevalence of TDR was stable at 11.0% (208/1,885) over the study period. Resistances to nucleotide RT inhibitors (NRTI) and PR inhibitors (PI) were 4.5% and 3.2%, respectively, without identifiable trends. In contrast, resistances to non-NRTIs (NNRTI, 4.7%) doubled between 2014 and 2016 from 3.2% to 6.4% (p_trend = 0.02) mainly due to the K103N mutation (from 1.7% to 4.1%; p_trend = 0.03) predominantly detected in recently infected German MSM not linked to transmission clusters. Transmitted INSTI mutations were present in only one case (T66I) and resistance to dolutegravir was not identified at all. Reduced susceptibility to recommended first-line therapies was low with 1.0% for PIs, 1.3% for NRTIs and 0.7% for INSTIs, but high for the NNRTIs efavirence (4.9%) and rilpivirine (6.0%) due to the K103N mutation and the polymorphic mutation E138A. These trends in therapy-naïve individuals impact current first-line regimens and require awareness and vigilant surveillance.

Characterisation of HIV-1 transmission clusters and drug-resistant mutations in Denmark, 2004 to 2016

This study describes the prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) drug resistance mutations among 1,815 patients in Denmark from 2004 to 2016 and characterises transmission clusters. POL sequences were analysed for subtype, drug resistance mutations and phylogenetic relationship. The prevalence of surveillance drug resistance mutations (SDRM) was 6.7%, while the prevalence of drug resistance mutations (DRM) with a clinical impact was 12.3%. We identified 197 transmission clusters with 706 patients. Patients 40 years or older were less likely to be members of a transmission cluster and patients in transmission clusters were less likely to be infected abroad. The proportion of late presenters (LP) was lower in active compared with inactive clusters. Large active clusters consisted of more men who have sex with men (MSM), had members more frequently infected in Denmark and contained a significantly lower proportion of LP and significantly fewer patients with DRM than small active clusters. Subtyping demonstrated that the Danish HIV epidemic is gradually becoming more composed of non-B subtypes/circulating recombinant forms. This study shows that active HIV-1 transmission has become increasingly MSM-dominated and that the recent increase in SDRM and DRM prevalence is not associated with more sustained transmission within identified transmission networks or clusters.

Transmission dynamics among participants initiating antiretroviral therapy upon diagnosis of early acute HIV-1 infection in Thailand

OBJECTIVE

To assess transmission characteristics in a predominantly MSM cohort initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) immediately following diagnosis of acute HIV-1infection (AHI).

METHODS

A longitudinal study (2009-2017) was performed in participants with AHI (n = 439) attending a single clinic in Bangkok. Plasma samples obtained prior to ART were used to obtain HIV-1 pol sequences and combined with clinical and epidemiologic data to assess transmission dynamics (cluster formation and size) using phylogenetic analysis. Clusters were estimated using maximum likelihood, genetic distance of 1.5% and visual inspection. The potential transmitter(s) in a cluster was determined using time to viral suppression and interview data.

RESULTS

The cohort was predominantly MSM (93%) and infected with HIV-1 CRF01_AE (87%). Medians (ranges) for age and viral load prior to ART were 26 (18-70) years and 5.9 (2.5-8.2) log10 HIV-1 RNA copies/ml. Median time from history of HIV-1 exposure to diagnosis was 19 (3-61) days. Viral suppression was observed in 388 of 412 (94%) participants at a median time of 12 weeks following ART. Twenty-six clusters with median cluster size of 2 (2-5) representing 62 of 439 (14%) participants were observed. Younger age was associated with cluster formation: median 28 versus 30 years for unique infections (P = 0.01). A potential transmitter was identified in 11 of 26 (42%) clusters.

CONCLUSION

Despite high rates of viral suppression following diagnosis and treatment of AHI within a cohort of young Thai MSM, HIV-1 transmission continued, reflecting the need to expand awareness and treatment access to the entire MSM population.

HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance in Slovenia and its impact on predicted treatment effectiveness: 2011-2016 update

HIV-positive individuals that have a detected transmitted drug resistance (TDR) at baseline have a higher risk of virological failure with antiretroviral therapy (ART). This study offers an update on the prevalence of TDR in Slovenia, looks for onward transmission of TDR, and reassesses the need for baseline drug resistance testing. Blinded questionnaires and partial pol sequences were obtained from 54.5% (168/308) of all of the patients diagnosed with HIV-1 from 2011 to 2016. Subtype B was detected in 82.7% (139/168) of patients, followed by subtype A (8.3%), subtype C (2.4%), and CRF01_AE (1.8%). Surveillance drug resistance mutations (SDRMs) were found in four individuals (2.4%), all of them men who have sex with men (MSM) and infected with subtype B. K103N was detected in two patients and T68D and T215D in one person each, corresponding to a prevalence of 0%, 1.2%, and 1.2% of TDR to protease inhibitors (PIs), nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), and non-NRTIs (NNRTIs), respectively. The impact of mutations on drug susceptibility was found to be most pronounced for NNRTIs. No forward spread of TDR within the country was observed; however, phylogenetic analysis revealed several new introductions of HIV into Slovenia in recent years, possibly due to increased risky behavior by MSM. This was indirectly confirmed by a substantial increase in syphilis cases and HIV-1 non-B subtypes during the study period. A drug-resistant HIV variant with good transmission fitness is thus more likely to be imported into Slovenia in the near future, and so TDR should be closely monitored.

Phylogenetic analysis as a forensic tool in HIV transmission investigations

: Because HIV is a fast-evolving virus, HIV genomic sequences of several individuals can be used to investigate whether they belong to a transmission network. Since the infamous 'Florida dentist case' in the beginning of the 1990s, phylogenetic analyses has been recurrently used in court settings as a forensic tool in HIV transmission investigations, for example cases where one or more complainants allege that a defendant has unlawfully infected them with HIV. Such cases can arise both in the context of HIV-specific criminal laws - in countries where transmission of HIV infection is specifically criminalized - or in the context of general laws, for example, by applying physical or sexual assault laws to HIV-related cases. Although phylogenetic analysis as a forensic technique for HIV transmission investigations has become common in several countries, the methodologies have not yet been standardized, sometimes giving rise to unwarranted conclusions. In this literature review, we revisit HIV court case investigations published in the scientific literature, as well as the methodological aspects important for the application and standardization of phylogenetic analyses methods as a forensic tool. Phylogenetic methodologies are improving quickly, such that more recently, phylogenetic relatedness, directionality of transmission and timing of nodes in the tree are used to assess whether the phylogenetic transmission analysis is consistent with or contradicting the charges. We find that there has been a lack of consistency between methods used in court case investigations and that it is essential to define guidelines to be used by phylogenetic forensic experts in HIV transmission cases in court.

Phylogenetic analysis of the Belgian HIV-1 epidemic reveals that local transmission is almost exclusively driven by men having sex with men despite presence of large African migrant communities

To improve insight in the drivers of local HIV-1 transmission in Belgium, phylogenetic, demographic, epidemiological and laboratory data from patients newly diagnosed between 2013 and 2015 were combined and analyzed. Characteristics of clustered patients, paired patients and patients on isolated branches in the phylogenetic tree were compared. The results revealed an overall high level of clustering despite the short time frame of sampling, with 47.6% of all patients having at least one close genetic counterpart and 36.6% belonging to a cluster of 3 or more individuals. Compared to patients on isolated branches, patients in clusters more frequently reported being infected in Belgium (95.1% vs. 47.6%; p < 0.001), were more frequently men having sex with men (MSM) (77.9% vs. 42.8%; p < 0.001), of Belgian origin (68.2% vs. 32.9%; p < 0.001), male gender (92.6% vs. 65.8%; p < 0.001), infected with subtype B or F (87.8% vs. 43.4%; p < 0.001) and diagnosed early after infection (55.4% vs. 29.0%; p < 0.001). Strikingly, Sub-Saharan Africans (SSA), overall representing 27.1% of the population were significantly less frequently found in clusters than on individual branches (6.0% vs. 41.8%; p < 0.001). Of the SSA that participated in clustered transmission, 66.7% were MSM and this contrasts sharply with the overall 12.0% of SSA reporting MSM. Transmission clusters with SSA were more frequently non-B clusters than transmission clusters without SSA (44.4% versus 18.2%). MSM-driven clusters with patients of mixed origin may account, at least in part, for the increasing spread of non-B subtypes to the native MSM population, a cross-over that has been particularly successful for subtype F and CRF02_AG. The main conclusions from this study are that clustered transmission in Belgium remains almost exclusively MSM-driven with very limited contribution of SSA. There were no indications for local ongoing clustered transmission of HIV-1 among SSA.

Quantifying the fitness cost of HIV-1 drug resistance mutations through phylodynamics

Drug resistant HIV is a major threat to the long-term efficacy of antiretroviral treatment. Around 10% of ART-naïve patients in Europe are infected with drug-resistant HIV type 1. Hence it is important to understand the dynamics of transmitted drug resistance evolution. Thanks to routinely performed drug resistance tests, HIV sequence data is increasingly available and can be used to reconstruct the phylogenetic relationship among viral lineages. In this study we employ a phylodynamic approach to quantify the fitness costs of major resistance mutations in the Swiss HIV cohort. The viral phylogeny reflects the transmission tree, which we model using stochastic birth–death-sampling processes with two types: hosts infected by a sensitive or resistant strain. This allows quantification of fitness cost as the ratio between transmission rates of hosts infected by drug resistant strains and transmission rates of hosts infected by drug sensitive strains. The resistance mutations 41L, 67N, 70R, 184V, 210W, 215D, 215S and 219Q (nRTI-related) and 103N, 108I, 138A, 181C, 190A (NNRTI-related) in the reverse trancriptase and the 90M mutation in the protease gene are included in this study. Among the considered resistance mutations, only the 90M mutation in the protease gene was found to have significantly higher fitness than the drug sensitive strains. The following mutations associated with resistance to reverse transcriptase inhibitors were found to be less fit than the sensitive strains: 67N, 70R, 184V, 219Q. The highest posterior density intervals of the transmission ratios for the remaining resistance mutations included in this study all included 1, suggesting that these mutations do not have a significant effect on viral transmissibility within the Swiss HIV cohort. These patterns are consistent with alternative measures of the fitness cost of resistance mutations. Overall, we have developed and validated a novel phylodynamic approach to estimate the transmission fitness cost of drug resistance mutations.

The introduction of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has decreased mortality and morbidity rates among HIV-infected people, and improved their quality of life. In fact, the WHO states that antiretroviral therapy programmes averted an estimated 7.8 million deaths worldwide between 2000 and 2014. However, the antiretroviral regimen prescribed to a patient may be unable to control HIV infection. Factors that can contribute to treatment failure include drug resistance, drug toxicity, or poor treatment adherence. In this study we aim to understand the dynamics of transmitted drug resistance by analysing the viral sequence data that was collected for resistance testing. We present a novel approach to quantify how drug resistance impacts virus lineage transmissibility, how fast resistance mutations evolve in sensitive strains and how fast they revert back to the sensitive type. We apply our approach to the Swiss HIV cohort study, and obtain patterns of viral transmission fitness that are consistent with alternative, harder to obtain measures of fitness.

Genotypic and Phylogenetic Insights on Prevention of the Spread of HIV-1 and Drug Resistance in "Real-World" Settings

HIV continues to spread among vulnerable heterosexual (HET), Men-having-Sex with Men (MSM) and intravenous drug user (IDU) populations, influenced by a complex array of biological, behavioral and societal factors. Phylogenetics analyses of large sequence datasets from national drug resistance testing programs reveal the evolutionary interrelationships of viral strains implicated in the dynamic spread of HIV in different regional settings. Viral phylogenetics can be combined with demographic and behavioral information to gain insights on epidemiological processes shaping transmission networks at the population-level. Drug resistance testing programs also reveal emergent mutational pathways leading to resistance to the 23 antiretroviral drugs used in HIV-1 management in low-, middle- and high-income settings. This article describes how genotypic and phylogenetic information from Quebec and elsewhere provide critical information on HIV transmission and resistance, Cumulative findings can be used to optimize public health strategies to tackle the challenges of HIV in “real-world” settings.

Assessing the danger of self-sustained HIV epidemics in heterosexuals by population based phylogenetic cluster analysis

Assessing the danger of transition of HIV transmission from a concentrated to a generalized epidemic is of major importance for public health. In this study, we develop a phylogeny-based statistical approach to address this question. As a case study, we use this to investigate the trends and determinants of HIV transmission among Swiss heterosexuals. We extract the corresponding transmission clusters from a phylogenetic tree. To capture the incomplete sampling, the delayed introduction of imported infections to Switzerland, and potential factors associated with basic reproductive number R0, we extend the branching process model to infer transmission parameters. Overall, the R0 is estimated to be 0.44 (95%-confidence interval 0.42—0.46) and it is decreasing by 11% per 10 years (4%—17%). Our findings indicate rather diminishing HIV transmission among Swiss heterosexuals far below the epidemic threshold. Generally, our approach allows to assess the danger of self-sustained epidemics from any viral sequence data.

In epidemiology, the “basic reproductive number” describes how efficiently a disease is transmitted, and represents the average number of new infections that an infected individual causes. If this number is less than one, many people do not infect anybody and hence the transmission chains die out. On the other hand, if the basic reproductive number is larger than one, an infected person infects on average more than one new individual, which leads to the virus or bacteria spreading in a self-sustained way.

Turk et al. have now developed a method to estimate the basic reproductive number using the genetic sequences of the virus or bacteria, and have used it to investigate how efficiently HIV spreads among Swiss heterosexuals. The results show that the basic reproductive number of HIV in this group is far below the critical value of one and that over the last years this number has been decreasing. Furthermore, the basic reproductive number differs for different subtypes of the HIV virus, indicating that the geographical region where the infection was acquired may play a role in transmission. Turk et al. also found that people who are diagnosed later or who often have sex with occasional partners spread the virus more efficiently.

These findings might be helpful for policy makers as they indicate that the risk of self-sustained transmission in this group in Switzerland is small. Furthermore the method allows HIV epidemics to be monitored at high resolution using sequence data, assesses the success of currently implemented preventive measures, and helps to target subgroups who are at higher risk of an infection – for instance, by supporting frequent HIV testing of these people. The method developed by Turk et al. could also prove useful for assessing the danger of other epidemics.

Recent increased identification and transmission of HIV-1 unique recombinant forms in Sweden

A temporal increase in non-B subtypes has earlier been described in Sweden by us and we hypothesized that this increased viral heterogeneity may become a hotspot for the development of more complex and unique recombinant forms (URFs) if the epidemics converge. In the present study, we performed subtyping using four automated tools and phylogenetic analysis by RAxML of pol gene sequences (n = 5246) and HIV-1 near full-length genome (HIV-NFLG) sequences (n = 104). A CD4⁺ T-cell decline trajectory algorithm was used to estimate time of HIV infection. Transmission clusters were identified using the family-joining method. The analysis of HIV-NFLG and pol gene described 10.6% (11/104) and 2.6% (137/5246) of the strains as URFs, respectively. An increasing trend of URFs was observed in recent years by both approaches (p = 0·0082; p < 0·0001). Transmission cluster analysis using the pol gene of all URFs identified 14 clusters with two to eight sequences. Larger transmission clusters of URFs (BF1 and 01B) were observed among MSM who mostly were sero-diagnosed in recent time. Understanding the increased appearance and transmission of URFs in recent years could have importance for public health interventions and the use of HIV-NFLG would provide better statistical support for such assessments.

Rising prevalence of non-B HIV-1 subtypes in North Carolina and evidence for local onward transmission

HIV-1 diversity is increasing in North American and European cohorts which may have public health implications. However, little is known about non-B subtype diversity in the southern United States, despite the region being the epicenter of the nation's epidemic. We characterized HIV-1 diversity and transmission clusters to identify the extent to which non-B strains are transmitted locally. We conducted cross-sectional analyses of HIV-1 partial pol sequences collected from 1997 to 2014 from adults accessing routine clinical care in North Carolina (NC). Subtypes were evaluated using COMET and phylogenetic analysis. Putative transmission clusters were identified using maximum-likelihood trees. Clusters involving non-B strains were confirmed and their dates of origin were estimated using Bayesian phylogenetics. Data were combined with demographic information collected at the time of sample collection and country of origin for a subset of patients. Among 24,972 sequences from 15,246 persons, the non-B subtype prevalence increased from 0% to 3.46% over the study period. Of 325 persons with non-B subtypes, diversity was high with over 15 pure subtypes and recombinants; subtype C (28.9%) and CRF02_AG (24.0%) were most common. While identification of transmission clusters was lower for persons with non-B versus B subtypes, several local transmission clusters (≥3 persons) involving non-B subtypes were identified and all were presumably due to heterosexual transmission. Prevalence of non-B subtype diversity remains low in NC but a statistically significant rise was identified over time which likely reflects multiple importation. However, the combined phylogenetic clustering analysis reveals evidence for local onward transmission. Detection of these non-B clusters suggests heterosexual transmission and may guide diagnostic and prevention interventions.

Phylogenetic evidence for underreporting of male-to-male sex among human immunodeficiency virus-infected donors in the Netherlands and Flanders

BACKGROUND

Separate transmission networks for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) coexist. Molecular typing of viral genomes can provide insight in HIV transmission routes in donors for whom risk behavior-based donor selection failed.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

This study includes all HIV-infected Dutch and Flemish donors in the period 2005 to 2014 (n = 55). Part of the HIV polymerase (pol) gene was amplified, sequenced, and compared with more than 10,000 HIV strains obtained from HIV-infected Dutch and Flemish patients. The most likely transmission route was determined based on HIV phylogeny and the donor's self-reported risk behavior during the exit interview.

RESULTS

HIV-infected donors were predominantly male (69%), were repeat donors (73%), were born in the Netherlands or Belgium (95%), and harbored HIV Subtype B (68%). Seventy-five percent of HIV-infected male donors were part of robust phylogenetic clusters linked to male-to-male sex, while only 24% of HIV-infected male donors reported male-to-male sex during posttest counseling. Sex between men and women accounted for 13% of HIV infections in male donors and 93% of HIV infections in female donors based on phylogenetic analysis. Only 40% of HIV-infected female donors had HIV Subtype B; 65% of female donors reported a foreign partner and indeed HIV sequences interspersed with sequences from HIV-endemic areas abroad, in particular sub-Saharan Africa.

CONCLUSION

HIV typing helps to understand HIV transmission routes in donor populations. We found substantial underreporting of male-to-male sex among HIV-infected male donors. Donor education on HIV risk factors and the danger of window-period donations and a donor environment that encourages frank disclosure of sexual behavior will contribute to a decrease of HIV-infected donors.

Identifying Transmission Clusters with Cluster Picker and HIV-TRACE

We compared the behavior of two approaches (Cluster Picker and HIV-TRACE) at varying genetic distances to identify transmission clusters. We used three HIV gp41 sequence datasets originating from the Rakai Community Cohort Study: (1) next-generation sequence (NGS) data from nine linked couples; (2) NGS data from longitudinal sampling of 14 individuals; and (3) Sanger consensus sequences from a cross-sectional dataset (n = 1,022) containing 91 epidemiologically linked heterosexual couples. We calculated the optimal genetic distance threshold to separate linked versus unlinked NGS datasets using a receiver operating curve analysis. We evaluated the number, size, and composition of clusters detected by Cluster Picker and HIV-TRACE at six genetic distance thresholds (1%-5.3%) on all three datasets. We further tested the effect of using all NGS, versus only a single variant for each patient/time point, for datasets (1) and (2). The optimal gp41 genetic distance threshold to distinguish linked and unlinked couples and individuals was 5.3% and 4%, respectively. HIV-TRACE tended to detect larger and fewer clusters, whereas Cluster Picker detected more clusters containing only two sequences. For NGS datasets (1) and (2), HIV-TRACE and Cluster Picker detected all linked pairs at 3% and 4% genetic distances, respectively. However, at 5.3% genetic distance, 20% of couples in dataset (3) did not cluster using either program, and for >1/3 of couples cluster assignment were discordant. We suggest caution in choosing thresholds for clustering analyses in a generalized epidemic.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of HIV-1 transmission in France (1999-2014) and impact of targeted prevention strategies

Background

Characterizing HIV-1 transmission networks can be important in understanding the evolutionary patterns and geospatial spread of the epidemic. We reconstructed the broad molecular epidemiology of HIV from individuals with primary HIV-1 infection (PHI) enrolled in France in the ANRS PRIMO C06 cohort over 15 years.

Results

Sociodemographic, geographic, clinical, biological and pol sequence data from 1356 patients were collected between 1999 and 2014. Network analysis was performed to infer genetic relationships, i.e. clusters of transmission, between HIV-1 sequences. Bayesian coalescent-based methods were used to examine the temporal and spatial dynamics of identified clusters from different regions in France. We also evaluated the use of network information to target prevention efforts. Participants were mostly Caucasian (85.9%) and men (86.7%) who reported sex with men (MSM, 71.4%). Overall, 387 individuals (28.5%) were involved in clusters: 156 patients (11.5%) in 78 dyads and 231 participants (17%) in 42 larger clusters (median size: 4, range 3–41). Compared to individuals with single PHI (n = 969), those in clusters were more frequently men (95.9 vs 83%, p < 0.01), MSM (85.8 vs 65.6%, p < 0.01) and infected with CRF02_AG (20.4 vs 13.4%, p < 0.01). Reconstruction of viral migrations across time suggests that Paris area was the major hub of dissemination of both subtype B and CRF02_AG epidemics. By targeting clustering individuals belonging to the identified active transmission network before 2010, 60 of the 143 onward transmissions could have been prevented.

Conclusion

These analyses support the hypothesis of a recent and rapid rise of CRF02_AG within the French HIV-1 epidemic among MSM. Combined with a short turnaround time for sample processing, targeting prevention efforts based on phylogenetic monitoring may be an efficient way to deliver prevention interventions but would require near real time targeted interventions on the identified index cases and their partners.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12977-017-0339-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

An epidemiological modelling study to estimate the composition of HIV-positive populations including migrants from endemic settings

OBJECTIVE

Migrants account for a significant number of people living with HIV in Europe, and it is important to fully consider this population in national estimates. Using a novel approach with the UK as an example, we present key public health measures of the HIV epidemic, taking into account both in-country infections and infections likely to have been acquired abroad.

DESIGN

Mathematical model calibrated to extensive data sources.

METHODS

An individual-based stochastic simulation model is used to calibrate to routinely collected surveillance data in the UK. Data on number of new HIV diagnoses, number of deaths, CD4 cell count at diagnosis, as well as time of arrival into the UK for migrants and the annual number of people receiving care were used.

RESULTS

An estimated 106 400 (90% plausibility range: 88 700-124 600) people were living with HIV in the UK in 2013. Twenty-three percent of these people, 24 600 (15 000-36 200) were estimated to be undiagnosed; this number has remained stable over the last decade. An estimated 32% of the total undiagnosed population had CD4 cell count less than 350 cells/μl in 2013. Twenty-five and 23% of black African men and women heterosexuals living with HIV were undiagnosed respectively.

CONCLUSION

We have shown a working example to characterize the HIV population in a European context which incorporates migrants from countries with generalized epidemics. Despite all aspects of HIV care being free and widely available to anyone in need in the UK, there is still a substantial number of people who are not yet diagnosed and thus not in care.

HIV surveillance combining an assay for identification of very recent infection and phylogenetic analyses on dried spots

BACKGROUND

Transmitted/founder viruses isolated at the early stage of infection are indicators of the variants that are spreading within a population. The French reporting system for new HIV diagnoses is linked to a virological surveillance using dried serum spots.

METHODS

We combined an immunoassay for very recent infection (less than 31 days) to a phylogenetic analysis of transmitted/founder viruses and sociodemographic information to analyze the dynamics of the HIV-1 epidemic during a 3-year period. Bayesian coalescent-based methods were used to explore the temporal and spatial dynamics of the identified clusters.

RESULTS

Of 17 010 dried serum spots collected, 549 very recent infections were identified for which both env sequences and sociodemographic data were available. Non-B transmitted/founder viruses were found in 196 cases (35.7%), belonging to six subtypes and seven circulating recombinant forms. Forty-three dyads/clusters were identified (range 2-11 cases), including 107 individuals (19.5%), mainly MSM. The largest cluster involved MSM infected by a CRF02_AG variant. Reconstruction of viral migrations across time suggests that Paris was the major hub of dissemination.

CONCLUSION

The study shows the feasibility of the surveillance of the HIV epidemic using this methodology. The observation of actively growing spatiotemporal clusters allows identification of specific networks that may be targets for intervention.

Differences in the integrase and reverse transcriptase transmitted resistance patterns in Northern Poland

INTRODUCTION

With the widespread introduction of the integrase (In) inhibitors into clinical practice, transmission of drug resistance to this class of antiretroviral medications may expand. The aim of this study was to analyze the recent patterns of In resistance in treatment naive individuals in Northern Poland and its association with transmitted protease (PR) and reverse transcriptase (RT) mutations.

METHODS

Study included 172 PR, RT and InI sequences from antiretroviral treatment naive HIV-1 infected patients linked to care in Northern Poland from 2010 to 2015. Drug resistance was interpreted based on the WHO surveillance and IAS-USA mutation lists. For phylogeny maximum likelihood and Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain analyses were used.

RESULTS

Overall rate of transmitted drug resistance was 12.21%. Nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) resistance associated substitutions were found in 11.05% of cases and non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor resistance variants in 1.16%. In multivariate models transmitted resistance strongly associated with subtype D infections [66.67% compared to the 3.84% for subtype B (p=0.001)]. No transmission of major protease or integrase mutations were observed. Polymorphisms associated with resistance against integrase inhibitor, mostly E157Q, were found in 21.5% sequences and associated with female (31.91% vs. 15.2% for male, p=0.01), injection drug use (84.21% compared to 22.08% for heterosexual and 1.39% for men-who-have-sex-with-men transmissions, p<0.0001) as well as hepatitis C coinfection [63.64% for positive, versus 8.57% for HCV antibody negative, p<0.0001]. Clusters of nucleoside reverse transcriptase mutations in subtype D and integrase E157Q variants in subtype B were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Transmitted drug resistance frequency was high in subtype D but limited to clustered NRTI mutations, being infrequent among subtype B infected cases. Despite lack of major integrase resistance in treatment naive patients, variants potentially affecting susceptibility to this class were common, which indicates the potential need for extended surveillance in the near future.

Using nearly full-genome HIV sequence data improves phylogeny reconstruction in a simulated epidemic

HIV molecular epidemiology studies analyse viral pol gene sequences due to their availability, but whole genome sequencing allows to use other genes. We aimed to determine what gene(s) provide(s) the best approximation to the real phylogeny by analysing a simulated epidemic (created as part of the PANGEA_HIV project) with a known transmission tree. We sub-sampled a simulated dataset of 4662 sequences into different combinations of genes (gag-pol-env, gag-pol, gag, pol, env and partial pol) and sampling depths (100%, 60%, 20% and 5%), generating 100 replicates for each case. We built maximum-likelihood trees for each combination using RAxML (GTR + Γ), and compared their topologies to the corresponding true tree’s using CompareTree. The accuracy of the trees was significantly proportional to the length of the sequences used, with the gag-pol-env datasets showing the best performance and gag and partial pol sequences showing the worst. The lowest sampling depths (20% and 5%) greatly reduced the accuracy of tree reconstruction and showed high variability among replicates, especially when using the shortest gene datasets. In conclusion, using longer sequences derived from nearly whole genomes will improve the reliability of phylogenetic reconstruction. With low sample coverage, results can be highly variable, particularly when based on short sequences.

A Direct Comparison of Two Densely Sampled HIV Epidemics: The UK and Switzerland

Phylogenetic clustering approaches can elucidate HIV transmission dynamics. Comparisons across countries are essential for evaluating public health policies. Here, we used a standardised approach to compare the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database and the Swiss HIV Cohort Study while maintaining data-protection requirements. Clusters were identified in subtype A1, B and C pol phylogenies. We generated degree distributions for each risk group and compared distributions between countries using Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) tests, Degree Distribution Quantification and Comparison (DDQC) and bootstrapping. We used logistic regression to predict cluster membership based on country, sampling date, risk group, ethnicity and sex. We analysed >8,000 Swiss and >30,000 UK subtype B sequences. At 4.5% genetic distance, the UK was more clustered and MSM and heterosexual degree distributions differed significantly by the KS test. The KS test is sensitive to variation in network scale, and jackknifing the UK MSM dataset to the size of the Swiss dataset removed the difference. Only heterosexuals varied based on the DDQC, due to UK male heterosexuals who clustered exclusively with MSM. Their removal eliminated this difference. In conclusion, the UK and Swiss HIV epidemics have similar underlying dynamics and observed differences in clustering are mainly due to different population sizes.

Molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 infection in Europe: An overview

Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) is characterised by vast genetic diversity. Globally circulating HIV-1 viruses are classified into distinct phylogenetic strains (subtypes, sub-subtypes) and several recombinant forms. Here we describe the characteristics and evolution of European HIV-1 epidemic over time through a review of published literature and updated queries of existing HIV-1 sequence databases. HIV-1 in Western and Central Europe was introduced in the early-1980s in the form of subtype B, which is still the predominant clade. However, in Eastern Europe (Former Soviet Union (FSU) countries and Russia) the predominant strain, introduced into Ukraine in the mid-1990s, is subtype A (A_FSU) with transmission mostly occurring in People Who Inject Drugs (PWID). In recent years, the epidemic is evolving towards a complex tapestry with an increase in the prevalence of non-B subtypes and recombinants in Western and Central Europe. Non-B epidemics are mainly associated with immigrants, heterosexuals and females but more recently, non-B clades have also spread amongst groups where non-B strains were previously absent - non-immigrant European populations and amongst men having sex with men (MSM). In some countries, non-B clades have spread amongst the native population, for example subtype G in Portugal and subtype A in Greece, Albania and Cyprus. Romania provides a unique case where sub-subtype F1 has predominated throughout the epidemic. In contrast, HIV-1 epidemic in FSU countries remains more homogeneous with A_FSU clade predominating in all countries. The differences between the evolution of the Western epidemic and the Eastern epidemic may be attributable to differences in transmission risk behaviours, lifestyle and the patterns of human mobility. The study of HIV-1 epidemic diversity provides a useful tool by which we can understand the history of the pandemic in addition to allowing us to monitor the spread and growth of the epidemic over time.