Measles Elimination, Immunity, Serosurveys, and Other Immunity Gap Diagnostic Tools

Who is missed in a community-based survey: Assessment and implications of biases due to incomplete sampling frame in a community-based serosurvey, Choma and Ndola Districts, Zambia, 2022

Community-based serological studies are increasingly relied upon to measure disease burden, identify population immunity gaps, and guide control and elimination strategies; however, there is little understanding of the potential for and impact of sampling biases on outcomes of interest. As part of efforts to quantify measles immunity gaps in Zambia, a community-based serological survey using stratified multi-stage cluster sampling approach was conducted in Ndola and Choma districts in May-June 2022, enrolling 1245 individuals. We carried out a follow-up study among individuals missed from the sampling frame of the serosurvey in July-August 2022, enrolling 672 individuals. We assessed the potential for and impact of biases in the community-based serosurvey by i) estimating differences in characteristics of households and individuals included and excluded (77% vs 23% of households) from the sampling frame of the serosurvey and ii) evaluating the magnitude these differences make on healthcare-seeking behavior, vaccination coverage, and measles seroprevalence. We found that missed households were 20% smaller and 25% less likely to have children. Missed individuals resided in less wealthy households, had different distributions of sex and occupation, and were more likely to seek care at health facilities. Despite these differences, simulating a survey in which missed households were included in the sampling frame resulted in less than a 5% estimated bias in these outcomes. Although community-based studies are upheld as the gold standard study design in assessing immunity gaps and underlying community health characteristics, these findings underscore the fact that sampling biases can impact the results of even well-conducted community-based surveys. Results from these studies should be interpreted in the context of the study methodology and challenges faced during implementation, which include shortcomings in establishing accurate and up-to-date sampling frames. Failure to account for these shortcomings may result in biased estimates and detrimental effects on decision-making.

Seroprevalence Study of Conserved Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli Antigens in Globally Diverse Populations

Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) are common causes of infectious diarrhea among young children of low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) and travelers to these regions. Despite their significant contributions to the morbidity and mortality associated with childhood and traveler's diarrhea, no licensed vaccines are available. Current vaccine strategies may benefit from the inclusion of additional conserved antigens, which may contribute to broader coverage and enhanced efficacy, given their key roles in facilitating intestinal colonization and effective enterotoxin delivery. EatA and EtpA are widely conserved in diverse populations of ETEC, but their immunogenicity has only been studied in controlled human infection models and a population of children in Bangladesh. Here, we compared serologic responses to EatA, EtpA and heat-labile toxin in populations from endemic regions including Haitian children and subjects residing in Egypt, Cameroon, and Peru to US children and adults where ETEC infections are sporadic. We observed elevated IgG and IgA responses in individuals from endemic regions to each of the antigens studied. In a cohort of Haitian children, we observed increased immune responses following exposure to each of the profiled antigens. These findings reflect the wide distribution of ETEC infections across multiple endemic regions and support further evaluation of EatA and EtpA as candidate ETEC vaccine antigens.

Measles Serostatus in Mothers and Their Newborns in Antioquia, Colombia: Implications for Measles Elimination

To describe the serostatus of measles IgG antibodies in pregnant women and newborns, placental transfer, and factors that determine being below the threshold of 150 mIU/mL, a cross-sectional study was conducted. Blood samples of 790 pregnant women at the time of delivery and 734 umbilical cord samples were analyzed from eight hospitals in the Aburrá Valley of Antioquia, Colombia. Measles IgG antibody measurement was performed with ELISA. The proportion of individuals with antibodies < 150 mIU/mL was 13.9% (95% CI: 12.2-15.8) in pregnant women and 11.1% (95% CI: 9.2-13.4) in newborns. The geometric mean of the antibody level of the pregnant women was 552 mIU/mL (95% CI: 504-605) and in the umbilical cord 662 mIU/mL (95% CI: 604-727). A positive correlation between pregnant woman and umbilical cord antibodies was found. The median ratio of measles IgG antibodies in umbilical cord/pregnant woman was 1.22 for all participants. A seroprevalence below the threshold of 150 mIU/mL was found in newborns whose mothers were born between 1983 and 1994, compared with those born before that period, when exposure to the wildtype virus was common (adjusted prevalence ratio: 3.6, 95% CI: 1.3-9.6). These findings suggest that there are gaps in measles immunity among women of childbearing age, before pregnancy. To close this immune gap and support efforts to maintain measles control, serological screening for measles antibodies should be routinely included in reproductive health and antenatal care programs to identify women without immunity who should be vaccinated before pregnancy or after delivery.

Probabilistic reconstruction of measles transmission clusters from routinely collected surveillance data

Pockets of susceptibility resulting from spatial or social heterogeneity in vaccine coverage can drive measles outbreaks, as cases imported into such pockets are likely to cause further transmission and lead to large transmission clusters. Characterizing the dynamics of transmission is essential for identifying which individuals and regions might be most at risk. As data from detailed contact-tracing investigations are not available in many settings, we developed an R package called o2geosocial to reconstruct the transmission clusters and the importation status of the cases from their age, location, genotype and onset date. We compared our inferred cluster size distributions to 737 transmission clusters identified through detailed contact-tracing in the USA between 2001 and 2016. We were able to reconstruct the importation status of the cases and found good agreement between the inferred and reference clusters. The results were improved when the contact-tracing investigations were used to set the importation status before running the model. Spatial heterogeneity in vaccine coverage is difficult to measure directly. Our approach was able to highlight areas with potential for local transmission using a minimal number of variables and could be applied to assess the intensity of ongoing transmission in a region.

A Survey of Vaccine-Induced Measles IgG Antibody Titer to Verify Temporal Changes in Response to Measles Vaccination in Young Adults

In Japan, sporadic measles cases increased rapidly in 2019 compared to the past six years. To clarify the persistence of immunity against measles in young adults, this study explored the persistence of immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody titers against the measles virus in 17- to 24-year-old young participants who reside in the Chiba prefecture of Japan. Measles-specific IgG antibody titers, determined by enzyme immunoassay in serum samples collected from 506 participants, were assessed through statistical analyses. Multivariable regression analysis revealed that the distribution of measles IgG antibody titers was significantly correlated with a medical history of measles (P < 0.05), while there was no significant correlation between the number of vaccinations related to measles IgG titers. Furthermore, measles IgG titers tended to decrease, as revealed by the temporal change in IgG titers, during the elapsed period after the last vaccination (P = 0.08). These results indicate that periodic vaccination against measles is required to prevent sporadic measles infection in young and older adults.

Assessment of population immunity to measles in Ontario, Canada: a Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN) study

Canada eliminated measles in 1998. We conducted a sero-epidemiology study to estimate population immunity to measles in the province of Ontario, Canada and to identify groups at higher risk of outbreaks. We used a previously developed modified enzyme immunoassay to test 1,199 residual sera from patients aged 1–39 years. We re-tested negative and equivocal sera using a plaque reduction neutralization assay. We interpreted our results in the context of Ontario’s immunization program and vaccine coverage data. Of 1,199 sera, 1035 (86.3%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 84.4, 88.2) were above the measles threshold for protection, 70 (5.8%, 95% CI 4.5, 7.2) were equivocal and 94 (7.8%, 95% CI 6.3, 9.4) were negative. The proportion of positive sera was highest for those 1–5 years, with 180/199 (90.5%, 95% CI 86.4, 94.5) positive sera, and lowest for those age 12–19 years, at 158/199 (79.4%, 95% CI 73.8, 85.0). Adjusted for age, females were more likely than males to have antibody titers above the threshold of protection (odds ratio = 1.60, 95% CI 1.14, 2.24). Most of the study cohort were eligible for two measles vaccine doses, and vaccine uptake in Ontario is >90% for school-aged cohorts. We observed a higher than expected proportion of sera with antibody levels below the threshold of protection, suggesting that immunity in some Ontario age-groups may be waning, despite high vaccine coverage. Alternatively, the traditional measles correlates of protection may not be an appropriate measure of population protection in measles-eliminated settings.