Disentangling Effects of Vector Birth Rate, Mortality Rate, and Abundance on Spread of Plant Pathogens

Integrating Community Ecology into Models of Vector-Borne Virus Transmission

Vector-borne plant viruses are a diverse and dynamic threat to agriculture with hundreds of economically damaging viruses and insect vector species. Mathematical models have greatly increased our understanding of how alterations of vector life history and host-vector-pathogen interactions can affect virus transmission. However, insect vectors also interact with species such as predators and competitors in food webs, and these interactions affect vector population size and behaviors in ways that mediate virus transmission. Studies assessing how species' interactions affect vector-borne pathogen transmission are limited in both number and scale, hampering the development of models that appropriately capture community-level effects on virus prevalence. Here, we review vector traits and community factors that affect virus transmission, explore the existing models of vector-borne virus transmission and areas where the principles of community ecology could improve the models and management, and finally evaluate virus transmission in agricultural systems. We conclude that models have expanded our understanding of disease dynamics through simulations of transmission but are limited in their ability to reflect the complexity of ecological interactions in real systems. We also document a need for experiments in agroecosystems, where the high availability of historical and remote-sensing data could serve to validate and improve vector-borne virus transmission models.

Mitigating an Epidemic of Resistance with Integrated Disease Management Tactics: Conflicting Management Recommendations from Insecticide Resistance and Epidemiological Models

Insect-transmitted plant pathogens threaten crop production worldwide. Because a single feeding bout may be sufficient for a vector to transmit a pathogen that kills the plant, treatment thresholds for vectors of plant pathogens are low. For many vector species, overreliance on chemical controls has resulted in evolution of insecticide resistance. Analysis of complementary insecticide resistance and epidemiological models indicated that tactics for delaying resistance evolution conflict with tactics for limiting pathogen spread. Insecticide resistance models support maintaining untreated refuges that serve as a source of susceptible insects that reduce the likelihood of mating among rare resistant insects. In contrast, epidemiological models indicate that movement of vectors from untreated areas to insecticide-treated areas contributes to pathogen spread. Accordingly, epidemiological models support area-wide insecticide spray programs, although resistance models indicate that such an approach is likely to lead to rapid resistance. To mitigate risk of insecticide resistance, additional management approaches must be integrated into plant disease management strategies. The resistance and epidemiological models were used to evaluate effects of integrating application of insecticides with two additional management strategies: deployment of partially resistant plants (plants that are not immune to infection but have lower acquisition and inoculation rates than susceptible plants) and mating disruption (reduced vector birth rate in mating disruption-treated areas). Deployment of partially resistant plants reduced the risk that untreated areas served as a source of inoculative vectors. Mating disruption reduced the risk of resistance by suppressing growth of insecticide-resistant populations and benefited disease management by reducing vector abundance. Simulation results indicated that by targeting multiple aspects of the plant-pathogen-vector system, pathogen spread could be suppressed and resistance delayed. Implementation of such an approach will require innovations in vector control and sustained efforts in plant breeding.

Modelling cassava production and pest management under biotic and abiotic constraints

We summarise modelling studies of the most economically important cassava diseases and arthropods, highlighting research gaps where modelling can contribute to the better management of these in the areas of surveillance, control, and host-pest dynamics understanding the effects of climate change and future challenges in modelling. For over 30 years, experimental and theoretical studies have sought to better understand the epidemiology of cassava diseases and arthropods that affect production and lead to considerable yield loss, to detect and control them more effectively. In this review, we consider the contribution of modelling studies to that understanding. We summarise studies of the most economically important cassava pests, including cassava mosaic disease, cassava brown streak disease, the cassava mealybug, and the cassava green mite. We focus on conceptual models of system dynamics rather than statistical methods. Through our analysis we identified areas where modelling has contributed and areas where modelling can improve and further contribute. Firstly, we identify research challenges in the modelling developed for the surveillance, detection and control of cassava pests, and propose approaches to overcome these. We then look at the contributions that modelling has accomplished in the understanding of the interaction and dynamics of cassava and its' pests, highlighting success stories and areas where improvement is needed. Thirdly, we look at the possibility that novel modelling applications can achieve to provide insights into the impacts and uncertainties of climate change. Finally, we identify research gaps, challenges, and opportunities where modelling can develop and contribute for the management of cassava pests, highlighting the recent advances in understanding molecular mechanisms of plant defence.

Modelling interference between vectors of non-persistently transmitted plant viruses to identify effective control strategies

Aphids are the primary vector of plant viruses. Transient aphids, which probe several plants per day, are considered to be the principal vectors of non-persistently transmitted (NPT) viruses. However, resident aphids, which can complete their life cycle on a single host and are affected by agronomic practices, can transmit NPT viruses as well. Moreover, they can interfere both directly and indirectly with transient aphids, eventually shaping plant disease dynamics. By means of an epidemiological model, originally accounting for ecological principles and agronomic practices, we explore the consequences of fertilization and irrigation, pesticide deployment and roguing of infected plants on the spread of viral diseases in crops. Our results indicate that the spread of NPT viruses can be i) both reduced or increased by fertilization and irrigation, depending on whether the interference is direct or indirect; ii) counter-intuitively increased by pesticide application and iii) reduced by roguing infected plants. We show that a better understanding of vectors’ interactions would enhance our understanding of disease transmission, supporting the development of disease management strategies.

A range of both experimental and theoretical studies show that the behaviour and population dynamics of insects depend strongly upon interactions with other insect species. These interactions have the potential to greatly affect the dynamics of insect-vectored plant disease, as transmission of viruses is intimately dependent on the local density of vectors, as well as how they select and move between potential host plants. Surprisingly, the effects of interaction between vector species on epidemics remains little studied and even worse understood, probably because experimentation is costly and difficult. Here, we present a model which permits us to investigate the effect of interaction between a virus, two vector species and the host plant on the spread of viral disease in crops. In this study, our model is used to explore the consequences of common agronomic practices on epidemics. Our study highlights the importance of exploring vectors’ interactions to enhance the understanding of disease transmission, supporting the development of disease management strategies.

Xylella fastidiosa and Glassy-Winged Sharpshooter Population Dynamics in the Southern San Joaquin Valley of California

Xylella fastidiosa is a vector-transmitted bacterial plant pathogen that affects a wide array of perennial crops, including grapevines (Pierce's disease). In the southern San Joaquin Valley of California, epidemics of Pierce's disease of grapevine were associated with the glassy-winged sharpshooter, Homalodisca vitripennis. During the growing season, rates of X. fastidiosa spread in vineyards are affected by changes in pathogen distribution within chronically infected grapevines and by vector population dynamics. Grapevines chronically infected with X. fastidiosa rarely tested positive for the pathogen prior to July, suggesting vector acquisition of X. fastidiosa from grapevines increases as the season progresses. This hypothesis was supported by an increase in number of X. fastidiosa-positive glassy-winged sharpshooters collected from vineyards during July through September. Analysis of insecticide records indicated that vineyards in the study area were typically treated with a systemic neonicotinoid in spring of each year. As a result, abundance of glassy-winged sharpshooters was typically low in late spring and early summer, with abundance of glassy-winged sharpshooter adults increasing in late June and early July of each year. Collectively, the results suggest that late summer is a crucial time for X. fastidiosa secondary spread in vineyards in the southern San Joaquin Valley, because glassy-winged sharpshooter abundance, number of glassy-winged sharpshooters testing positive for X. fastidiosa, and grapevines with detectable pathogen populations were all greatest during this period.

Eco-Epidemiological Uncertainties of Emerging Plant Diseases: The Challenge of Predicting Xylella fastidiosa Dynamics in Novel Environments

In order to prevent and control the emergence of biosecurity threats such as vector-borne diseases of plants, it is vital to understand drivers of entry, establishment, and spatiotemporal spread, as well as the form, timing, and effectiveness of disease management strategies. An inherent challenge for policy in combatting emerging disease is the uncertainty associated with intervention planning in areas not yet affected, based on models and data from current outbreaks. Following the recent high-profile emergence of the bacterium Xylella fastidiosa in a number of European countries, we review the most pertinent epidemiological uncertainties concerning the dynamics of this bacterium in novel environments. To reduce the considerable ecological and socio-economic impacts of these outbreaks, eco-epidemiological research in a broader range of environmental conditions needs to be conducted and used to inform policy to enhance disease risk assessment, and support successful policy-making decisions. By characterizing infection pathways, we can highlight the uncertainties that surround our knowledge of this disease, drawing attention to how these are amplified when trying to predict and manage outbreaks in currently unaffected locations. To help guide future research and decision-making processes, we invited experts in different fields of plant pathology to identify data to prioritize when developing pest risk assessments. Our analysis revealed that epidemiological uncertainty is mainly driven by the large variety of hosts, vectors, and bacterial strains, leading to a range of different epidemiological characteristics further magnified by novel environmental conditions. These results offer new insights on how eco-epidemiological analyses can enhance understanding of plant disease spread and support management recommendations.[Formula: see text] Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY 4.0 International license.

The Epidemiology of Xylella fastidiosa; A Perspective on Current Knowledge and Framework to Investigate Plant Host-Vector-Pathogen Interactions

Insect-transmitted plant diseases caused by viruses, phytoplasmas, and bacteria share many features in common regardless of the causal agent. This perspective aims to show how a model framework, developed originally for plant virus diseases, can be modified for the case of diseases incited by Xylella fastidiosa. In particular, the model framework enables the specification of a simple but quite general invasion criterion defined in terms of key plant, pathogen, and vector parameters and, importantly, their interactions, which determine whether or not an incursion or isolated outbreak of a pathogen will lead to establishment, persistence, and subsequent epidemic development. Hence, this approach is applicable to the wide range of X. fastidiosa-incited diseases that have recently emerged in southern Europe, each with differing host plant, pathogen subspecies, and vector identities. Of particular importance are parameters relating to vector abundance and activity, transmission characteristics, and behavior in relation to preferences for host infection status. Some gaps in knowledge with regard to the developing situation in Europe are noted.

Effects of Nymphal Diet and Adult Feeding on Allocation of Resources to Glassy-Winged Sharpshooter Egg Production

The glassy-winged sharpshooter is an invasive insect capable of transmitting the bacterial pathogen Xylella fastidiosa. Pre-oviposition periods of laboratory-reared glassy-winged sharpshooters are variable. Here, two questions were addressed: does nymphal diet affect pre-oviposition period and how do allocation patterns of resources differ for females that produce eggs versus females that do not? Nymphs were reared on one of three host plant species: cowpea, sunflower, or sorghum. Half of the females were sacrificed at emergence. The remaining adult females were held on cowpea, a host plant species known to support egg maturation via adult feeding. Females were sacrificed on the day of first oviposition or after 9 wk if no eggs were deposited. Females reared as nymphs on sorghum had longer development times and were smaller (head capsule width and hind tibia length) than females reared as nymphs on cowpea and sunflower. However, nymphal diet did not affect percentage of dry weight that was lipid at emergence. Further, nymphal diet did not affect time to deposition of the first egg mass or total number of eggs matured at the time of first oviposition. Egg production reduced the allocation of resources to insect bodies, with body lipid content decreasing with increasing egg production. In general, females increased wet weight 1.4-fold during the first week after adult emergence, with wet weights plateauing over the remaining 9 wk that adults were monitored. Thus, it seems reasonable to hypothesize that resources required for egg production were acquired via adult feeding during the first week after adult emergence.

Plant Virus Epidemiology: Applications and Prospects for Mathematical Modeling and Analysis to Improve Understanding and Disease Control

In recent years, mathematical modeling has increasingly been used to complement experimental and observational studies of biological phenomena across different levels of organization. In this article, we consider the contribution of mathematical models developed using a wide range of techniques and uses to the study of plant virus disease epidemics. Our emphasis is on the extent to which models have contributed to answering biological questions and indeed raised questions related to the epidemiology and ecology of plant viruses and the diseases caused. In some cases, models have led to direct applications in disease control, but arguably their impact is better judged through their influence in guiding research direction and improving understanding across the characteristic spatiotemporal scales of plant virus epidemics. We restrict this article to plant virus diseases for reasons of length and to maintain focus even though we recognize that modeling has played a major and perhaps greater part in the epidemiology of other plant pathogen taxa, including vector-borne bacteria and phytoplasmas.

Effects of Energy Reserves and Diet on Glassy-Winged Sharpshooter Egg Maturation

The glassy-winged sharpshooter is an invasive insect capable of transmitting the plant pathogen Xylella fastidiosa. As rates of pathogen spread are a function of vector abundance, identification of factors contributing to glassy-winged sharpshooter egg production will aid in predicting population growth. Here, effects of stored energy reserves and adult diet on glassy-winged sharpshooter egg maturation were evaluated. To estimate energy reserves available to adult females at the beginning of feeding assays, residuals from a regression of wet weight on size were used. Analysis of a subset of females sacrificed at the beginning of feeding assays, demonstrated that females with a positive residual wet weight had higher lipid content and carried more eggs than females with a negative residual wet weight. To evaluate effects of diet and energy reserves on egg maturation, energy reserves available to females entering feeding assays on cowpea and grapevine were estimated. For females held on cowpea, residual wet weight and quantity of excreta produced over a 6-d feeding period affected egg production. In contrast, for females held on grapevine, only residual wet weight affected egg production. Comparison of cowpea and grapevine xylem sap determined that eight amino acids were more concentrated in xylem sap from cowpea than from grapevine. Collectively, the results suggest that glassy-winged sharpshooter population growth within crop monocultures will not depend solely on the nutritional quality of the specific crop for producing mature eggs but also on the quantity of energy reserves accumulated by females prior to entering that crop habitat.

Validation of a Landscape-Based Model for Whitefly Spread of the Cucurbit Yellow Stunting Disorder Virus to Fall Melons

The cucurbit yellow stunting disorder virus (CYSDV) transmitted by Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius) (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) has caused significant reductions in fall melon (Cucumis melo L.) yields in Yuma County, Arizona. In a recent landscape-based study, we found evidence that cotton and spring melon fields increased abundance of B. tabaci and spread of CYSDV infection in fall melon fields. Here, we show that a statistical model derived from data collected in 2011-2012 and based on areas of cotton and spring melon fields located within 1,500 m from edges of fall melon fields was sufficient to retrospectively predict incidence of CYSDV infection in fall melon fields during 2007-2010. Nevertheless, the slope of the association between areas of spring melon fields and incidence of CYSDV infection was three times smaller in 2007-2010 than in 2011-2012, whereas the slope of the association between areas of cotton fields and incidence of CYSDV infection was consistent between study periods. Accordingly, predictions were more accurate when data on areas of cotton alone were used as a basis for prediction than when data on areas of cotton and spring melons were used. Validation of this statistical model confirms that crop isolation has potential for reducing incidence of CYSDV infection in fall melon fields in Yuma County, although isolation from cotton may provide more consistent benefits than isolation from spring melon.

Effects of Xylem-Sap Composition on Glassy-Winged Sharpshooter (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) Egg Maturation on High- and Low-Quality Host Plants

Glassy-winged sharpshooters must feed as adults to produce mature eggs. Cowpea and sunflower are both readily accepted by the glassy-winged sharpshooter for feeding, but egg production on sunflower was reported to be lower than egg production on cowpea. To better understand the role of adult diet in egg production, effects of xylem-sap chemistry on glassy-winged sharpshooter egg maturation was compared for females confined to cowpea and sunflower. Females confined to cowpea consumed more xylem-sap than females held on sunflower. In response, females held on cowpea produced more eggs, had heavier bodies, and greater lipid content than females held on sunflower. Analysis of cowpea and sunflower xylem-sap found that 17 of 19 amino acids were more concentrated in cowpea xylem-sap than in sunflower xylem-sap. Thus, decreased consumption of sunflower xylem-sap was likely owing to perceived lower quality, with decreased egg production owing to a combination of decreased feeding and lower return per unit volume of xylem-sap consumed. Examination of pairwise correlation coefficients among amino acids indicated that concentrations of several amino acids within a plant species were correlated. Principal component analyses identified latent variables describing amino acid composition of xylem-sap. For females held on cowpea, egg maturation was affected by test date, volume of excreta produced, and principal components describing amino acid composition of xylem-sap. Principal component analyses aided in identifying amino acids that were positively or negatively associated with egg production, although determining causality with respect to key nutritional requirements for glassy-winged sharpshooter egg production will require additional testing.