Mapping Global Potential Risk of Establishment of Rhagoletis pomonella (Diptera: Tephritidae) Using MaxEnt and CLIMEX Niche Models

Bovine anaplasmosis in Zimbabwe: spatio-temporal distribution and environmental drivers

Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of Bovine anaplasmosis is crucial for identifying areas of high prevalence for targeted disease control. This research was aimed at modelling and mapping the B. anaplasmosis potential distribution, and identify hotspots as well as significant variables explaining the occurrence of the disease. The Getis Ord Gi* statistic for Hotspot analysis was used as well as MaxEnt ecological niche modelling. The effects of time, land-use, and agro-ecological regions on B. anaplasmosis occurrence were tested using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). Results showed that several districts in Zimbabwe are suitable for the occurence of the disease for example Binga, Seke, Buhera, Kwekwe, Gweru, Mhondoro, Chegutu, Sanyati, and in the North: Mbire, Muzarabani, Mt Darwin, Shamva, Bindura, Zvimba and Makonde. Morbidity and mortality hotspots were detected in Gokwe-south, Kwekwe, and Chirumhanzu districts. Binga, Gokwe-south, Gutu, Hurungwe, Mazoe, Nkayi, Shamva, and Kwekwe districts also experienced high disease incidences. Temperature seasonality, precipitation seasonality, mean diurnal range, and isothermality were the most important variables in explaining 93% of B. anaplasmosis distribution. Unlike land-use and agro-ecological regions, time (months) had a significant effect on B. anaplasmosis occurrence with July and September having significantly (p < 0.05) higher cases and deaths than the rest of the months. The results of this study provide insights into the management strategies and control of B. anaplasmosis in Zimbabwe. It is thus concluded that geo-spatial techniques, combined with ecological niche modelling can provide useful insights into disease prevalence and distribution and hence can contribute to effective management and control of B. anaplasmosis in Zimbabwe.

Current and future potential distribution of two bamboo pests in China: Anakaburmensis and Cicadellaviridis (Hemiptera, Cicadellidae)

China's bamboo output is closely associated with its national economy; however, it is currently rapidly declining due to damage from the pests Anakaburmensis and Cicadellaviridis. Identifying regions that are environmentally suitable for these pests is a critical step in their effective control. Therefore, in this study, we used a Maxent model to predict their current and future potential areas of distribution (2021-2040, 2041-2060, and 2061-2080) and explored changes over time using distribution data and related environmental variables. The model results demonstrates that the current potential areas of distribution of A.burmensis are predominantly concentrated in several provinces of southern and central China, such as Guizhou, Guangxi, and Hubei, whereas the current potential areas of distribution of C.viridis are primarily in many provinces across southern, central, and northeastern China. In the future, the potential distribution of A.burmensis will increase and move minimally, whereas the potential distribution of C.viridis will decrease and move considerably. The results of the present study provide vital information for predicting the spread and outbreaks of C.viridis and A.burmensis and provide a reference framework for developing management strategies to control these two pests, thereby minimizing economic loss in the bamboo industry.

Which SDM Model, CLIMEX vs. MaxEnt, Best Forecasts Aeolesthes sarta Distribution at a Global Scale under Climate Change Scenarios?

A precise evaluation of the risk of establishing insect pests is essential for national plant protection organizations. This accuracy is crucial in negotiating international trade agreements for forestry-related commodities, which have the potential to carry pests and lead to unintended introductions in the importing countries. In our study, we employed both mechanistic and correlative niche models to assess and map the global patterns of potential establishment for Aeolesthes sarta under current and future climates. This insect is a significant pest affecting tree species of the genus Populus, Salix, Acer, Malus, Juglans, and other hardwood trees. Notably, it is also categorized as a quarantine pest in countries where it is not currently present. The mechanistic model, CLIMEX, was calibrated using species-specific physiological tolerance thresholds, providing a detailed understanding of the environmental factors influencing the species. In contrast, the correlative model, maximum entropy (MaxEnt), utilized species occurrences and spatial climatic data, offering insights into the species' distribution based on observed data and environmental conditions. The projected potential distribution from CLIMEX and MaxEnt models aligns well with the currently known distribution of A. sarta. CLIMEX predicts a broader global distribution than MaxEnt, indicating that most central and southern hemispheres are suitable for its distribution, excluding the extreme northern hemisphere, central African countries, and the northern part of Australia. Both models accurately predict the known distribution of A. sarta in the Asian continent, and their projections suggest a slight overall increase in the global distribution range of A. sarta with future changes in climate temperature, majorly concentrating in the central and northern hemispheres. Furthermore, the models anticipate suitable conditions in Europe and North America, where A. sarta currently does not occur but where its preferred host species, Populus alba, is present. The main environmental variables associated with the distribution of A. sarta at a global level were the average annual temperature and precipitation rate. The predictive models developed in this study offer insights into the global risk of A. sarta establishment and can be valuable for monitoring potential pest introductions in different countries. Additionally, policymakers and trade negotiators can utilize these models to make science-based decisions regarding pest management and international trade agreements.

Projecting the Global Potential Geographical Distribution of Ceratitis capitata (Diptera: Tephritidae) under Current and Future Climates

The Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann), which is native to tropical Africa, has invaded more than 100 countries and constitutes a risk to the citrus sector. Studying its potential geographical distribution (PGD) in the context of global climate change is important for prevention and control efforts worldwide. Therefore, we used the CLIMEX model to project and assess the risk of global invasion by C. capitata under current (1981-2010) and future (2040-2059) climates. In the prevailing climatic conditions, the area of PGD for C. capitata was approximately 664.8 × 105 km2 and was concentrated in South America, southern Africa, southern North America, eastern Asia, and southern Europe. Under future climate conditions, the area of PGD for C. capitata is projected to decrease to approximately 544.1 × 105 km2 and shift to higher latitudes. Cold stress was shown to affect distribution at high latitudes, and heat stress was the main factor affecting distribution under current and future climates. According to the predicted results, countries with highly suitable habitats for C. capitata that have not yet been invaded, such as China, Myanmar, and Vietnam, must strengthen quarantine measures to prevent the introduction of this pest.

Spatiotemporal epidemiology and risk factors of scrub typhus in Hainan Province, China, 2011-2020

Background

The re-emergence of scrub typhus in the southern provinces of China in recent decades has been validated, thereby attracting the attention of public health authorities. There has been a spatial and temporal expansion of scrub typhus in Hainan Province, but the epidemiological characteristics, environmental drivers, and potential high-risk areas for scrub typhus have not yet been investigated.

Objective

The aims of this study were to characterize the spatiotemporal epidemiology of scrub typhus, identify dominant environmental risk factors, and map potential risk areas in Hainan Province from 2011 to 2020.

Methods

The spatiotemporal dynamics of scrub typhus in Hainan Province between 2011 and 2020 were analyzed using spatial analyses and seasonal-trend decomposition using regression (STR). The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was applied to determine the key environmental predictors and environmentally suitable areas for scrub typhus, and the demographic diversity of the predicted suitable zones was evaluated.

Results

During 2011-2020, 3260 scrub typhus cases were recorded in Hainan Province. The number of scrub typhus cases increased continuously each year, particularly among farmers (67.61%) and individuals aged 50-59 years (23.25%) who were identified as high-risk groups. A dual epidemic peak was detected, emerging annually from April to June and from July to October. The MaxEnt-based risk map illustrated that highly suitable areas, accounting for 25.36% of the total area, were mainly distributed in the northeastern part of Hainan Province, where 75.43% of the total population lived. Jackknife tests revealed that ground surface temperature, elevation, cumulative precipitation, evaporation, land cover, population density, and ratio of dependents were the most significant environmental factors.

Conclusion

In this study, we gained insights into the spatiotemporal epidemiological dynamics, pivotal environmental drivers, and potential risk map of scrub typhus in Hainan Province. These results have important implications for researchers and public health officials in guiding future prevention and control strategies for scrub typhus.

Two new invasive Ips bark beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) in mainland China and their potential distribution in Asia

BACKGROUND

Ips is a bark beetle genus of 45 species, many of which are pests of conifer forests and plantations under stress. Twelve Ips species are recorded from China and presumably native there. From 2016 to 2018, specimens suspected to be Ips calligraphus and Ips grandicollis, were collected from traps with ethanol as a sole lure in Zhuhai, Guangdong, China. Both species originate in North America and infest various species of native or introduced pines. Since Ips species are known to cause or exacerbate problems in pine plantations, and a regional survey using traps baited with attractants were implemented in this study to investigate the extent of the introduction.

RESULTS

Both I. calligraphus and I. grandicollis have been collected repeatedly from several traps with Ips attractants in Zhuhai, Guangdong, China since 2016. Potential distributions of these two species in Asia, inferred using MaxEnt, is extensive, given the high projected environmental suitability in North America, South America, Mediterranean Europe, Northern Africa, and Eastern Asia. The host plant of I. calligraphus from Zhuhai was identified as slash pine Pinus elliottii using DNA barcoding of gut contents from trapped individuals.

CONCLUSION

This is the first report of the establishment of two American pine bark beetles, I. calligraphus and I. grandicollis in continental Asia. The gut content of both species suggests that these pest feeds on a non-native host. Whether the two species present high-risk to Asian forests will become clear with more research on their interactions with native pines.

Ensemble evaluation of the potential risk areas of yellow-legged hornet distribution

Invasion of alien species facilitated by climate change and human assistant is one of global threats that cause irreversible damages on the local flora and fauna. One of these issued species, Vespa velutina nigrithorax du Buysson, 1905 (Hymenoptera:Vespidae), is a significant threat to entomofauna, including honeybees, in the introduced regions. This wasp is still expanding its habitats, prioritizing the development of a reliable species distribution model based on recently updated occurrence data. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the potential areas that are climatically exposed to V. v. nigrithorax invasion globally and in South Korea, where the wasp has caused severe damage to local ecosystems and apiculture after its recent introduction. We developed a new global scale ensemble model based on CLIMEX and Maxent models and applied it to South Korea using field survey data. As a result, risky areas were predicted to be temperate and subtropical climate regions, including the eastern USA, western Europe, Far East Asia, and small areas in South America and Australia. In particular, South Korea has a high potential risk throughout the country. We expect that this study would provide fundamental data for monitoring the environmental risks caused by V. v. nigrithorax using advanced species distribution modeling.

Risk Assessment for the Establishment of Vespa mandarinia (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) in the Pacific Northwest, United States

The recent introduction of the Asian giant hornet, Vespa mandarinia Smith, in the United States in late 2019 has raised concerns about its establishment in the Pacific Northwest and its potential deleterious effects on honey bees, Apis spp., and their pollination services in the region. Therefore, we conducted a risk assessment of the establishment of V. mandarinia in Washington, Oregon, Montana, and Idaho on a county-by-county basis. Our highly conservative tier-1 qualitative and semiquantitative risk assessment relied on the biological requirements and ecological relationships of V. mandarinia in the environments of the Pacific Northwest. Our risk characterization was based on climate and habitat suitability estimates for V. mandarinia queens to overwinter and colonize nests, density and distribution of apiaries, and locations of major human-mediated introduction pathways that may increase establishment of the hornet in the counties. Our results suggest that 32 counties in the region could be at low risk, 120 at medium risk, and 23 at high risk of establishment. Many of the western counties in the region were estimated to be at the highest risk of establishment mainly because of their suitable climate for queens to overwinter, dense forest biomass for nest colonization, and proximity to major port and freight hubs in the region. By design, our tier-1 risk assessment most likely overestimates the risk of establishment, but considering its negative effects, these counties should be prioritized in ongoing monitoring and eradication efforts of V. mandarinia.

The Eclosion of Rhagoletis pomonella (Diptera: Tephritidae) Under Different Chill Durations and Simulated Temperate and Tropical Conditions

The apple maggot fly, Rhagoletis pomonella (Walsh) (Diptera: Tephritidae), is a serious pest of apple in North America that is subject to quarantine measures to prevent its spread to currently pest-free regions, including the tropics. How the fly may survive in warmer climates is unclear. Here, we studied the effects of exposing postchill puparia to simulated temperate and tropical environmental conditions on eclosion of R. pomonella from Washington State, U.S.A. Puparia were chilled for 0-30 wk at 3°C and then held under four postchill conditions: A = 23°C, 16:8 L:D, 40% RH; B = 26°C, 12:12 L:D, 80% RH; C = 26°C, 16:8 L:D, 80% RH; and D = 23°C, 12:12 L:D, 40% RH, with B and D representing tropical conditions and A and C temperate conditions. Within each chill duration, total numbers of flies eclosed were equally high in tropical treatment B and temperate treatment C, while they were lower in treatments A and D. Mean weeks of the first eclosion in treatments B and C were earlier than in treatment D; mean week of peak eclosion and 50% eclosion in treatments A, B, and C were earlier than in treatment D. Eclosion spans in treatments A, B, and D were generally shorter than in treatment C. Results suggest that if introduced into a humid tropical country, R. pomonella puparia from Washington State could produce adult flies, regardless of chill duration or lack of chilling during the pupal stage, but whether flies could establish there would require further study.

Predicting the Global Distribution of Solenopsis geminata (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) under Climate Change Using the MaxEnt Model

Simple Summary

Climate change influences the distribution of species. The tropical fire ant Solenopsis geminata (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) is a serious invasive species that damages the native ecosystem. In this study, we evaluated the current and future distribution of S. geminata under climate change using the ecological niche model. The model results showed that the favorable habitat area of S. geminata will expand to higher latitudes on a global scale due to future global warming. Some countries located in America and East Asia, such as Brazil, China, South Korea, the USA, and Uruguay, can be threatened by S. geminata due to climate change.

Abstract

The tropical fire ant Solenopsis geminata (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) is a serious invasive species that causes a decline in agricultural production, damages infrastructure, and harms human health. This study was aimed to develop a model using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm to predict the current and future distribution of S. geminata on a global scale for effective monitoring and management. In total, 669 occurrence sites of S. geminata and six bioclimatic variables of current and future climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2100 were used for the modeling. The annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and precipitation in the driest quarter were the key influential factors for determining the distribution of S. geminata. Although the potential global distribution area of S. geminata is predicted to decrease slightly under global warming, the distribution of favorable habitats is predicted to expand to high latitudes under climate scenarios. In addition, some countries in America and East Asia, such as Brazil, China, South Korea, the USA, and Uruguay, are predicted to be threatened by S. geminata invasion under future climate change. These findings can facilitate the proactive management of S. geminata through monitoring, surveillance, and quarantine measures.

Prediction of Future Natural Suitable Areas for Rice under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)

Extreme temperature events, which are part of global climate change, are a growing threat to crop production, especially to such temperature-sensitive crops as rice. As a result, the traditional rice-growing areas are also likely to shift. The MaxEnt model was used for predicting the areas potentially suitable for rice in the short term (2016–2035) and in the medium term (2046–2065) and under two scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, namely representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 (the intermediate scenario) and RCP 8.5 (sometimes referred to as the worst-case scenario). The predictions, on verification, were seen to be highly accurate: the AUC—area under the curve—value of the MaxEnt model was > 0.85. The model made the following predictions. (1) Areas highly suitable for rice crops will continue to be concentrated mainly in the current major rice-production areas, and areas only marginally suitable will be concentrated mainly in the rainforest region. (2) Overall, although the current pattern of the distribution of such areas would remain more or less unchanged, their extent will mainly decrease in the subtropics but increase in the tropics and in high-latitude regions. (3) The extent of such areas will decrease in the short term but increase in the medium term.

Impacts of climate change on high priority fruit fly species in Australia

Tephritid fruit flies are among the most destructive horticultural pests posing risks to Australia’s multi-billion-dollar horticulture industry. Currently, there are 11 pest fruit fly species of economic concern in Australia. Of these, nine are native to this continent (Bactrocera aquilonis, B. bryoniae, B. halfordiae, B. jarvisi, B. kraussi, B. musae, B. neohumeralis, B. tryoni and Zeugodacus cucumis), while B. frauenfeldi and Ceratitis capitata are introduced. To varying degrees these species are costly to Australia’s horticulture through in-farm management, monitoring to demonstrate pest freedom, quarantine and trade restrictions, and crop losses. Here, we used a common species distribution model, Maxent, to assess climate suitability for these 11 species under baseline (1960–1990) and future climate scenarios for Australia. Projections indicate that the Wet Tropics is likely to be vulnerable to all 11 species until at least 2070, with the east coast of Australia also likely to remain vulnerable to multiple species. While the Cape York Peninsula and Northern Territory are projected to have suitable climate for numerous species, extrapolation to novel climates in these areas decreases confidence in model projections. The climate suitability of major horticulture areas currently in eastern Queensland, southern-central New South Wales and southern Victoria to these pests may increase as climate changes. By highlighting areas at risk of pest range expansion in the future our study may guide Australia’s horticulture industry in developing effective monitoring and management strategies.

The Establishment Risk of Lycorma delicatula (Hemiptera: Fulgoridae) in the United States and Globally

Native to Asia, the spotted lanternfly, Lycorma delicatula (White), is an emerging pest of many commercially important plants in Korea, Japan, and the United States. Determining its potential distribution is important for proactive measures to protect commercially important commodities. The objective of this study was to assess the establishment risk of L. delicatula globally and in the United States using the ecological niche model MAXENT, with a focus on Washington State (WA), where large fruit industries exist. The MAXENT model predicted highly suitable areas for L. delicatula in Asia, Oceania, South America, North America, Africa, and Europe, but also predicted that tropical habitats are not suitable for its establishment, contrary to published information. Within the United States, the MAXENT model predicted that L. delicatula can establish in most of New England and the mid-Atlantic states, the central United States and the Pacific Coast states, including WA. If introduced, L. delicatula is likely to establish in fruit-growing regions of the Pacific Northwest. The most important environmental variables for predicting the potential distribution of L. delicatula were mean temperature of driest quarter, elevation, degree-days with a lower developmental threshold value of 11°C, isothermality, and precipitation of coldest quarter. Results of this study can be used by regulatory agencies to guide L. delicatula surveys and prioritize management interventions for this pest.

Prediction of current and future potential distributions of the Eucalyptus pest Leptocybe invasa (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae) in China using the CLIMEX model

BACKGROUND

The wasp Leptocybe invasa Fisher & LaSalle (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae), a Eucalyptus (Myrtaceae) pest native to Australia, has caused economic and ecologic losses in China. It is a serious pest in southern provinces. Because climate is a limiting factor in insect distribution, we used the model CLIMEX to predict the effect of climate change on potential current and future distributions of L. invasa in China. Data were collected on the current locations of this wasp, along with the damage incurred to Eucalyptus. These data were used to create a forecast model to predict potential current and future distribution maps of L. invasa in China.

RESULTS

The verification results showed that 99.5% of the distribution samples formulated by the model are highly reliable and accurate. The result predicted that the potential current distribution of L. invasa will concentrate south of the Yellow River basin. The future distribution maps predicted a small-scale potential expansion north-northwest of Guangxi and more areas within China will provide increasingly suitable habitats for colonization by L. invasa.

CONCLUSION

These distribution predications will be useful in determining where preventive and control measures should be implemented against this pest wasp in Eucalyptus throughout China. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry.

Modeling the abundance of two Rhagoletis fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) pests in Washington State, U.S.A

Well-adapted and abundant insect pests can negatively affect agricultural production. We modeled the abundance of two Rhagoletis fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) pests, apple maggot fly, Rhagoletis pomonella (Walsh), and western cherry fruit fly, Rhagoletis indifferens Curran, in Washington State (WA), U.S.A. using biologically relevant environmental variables. We tested the hypothesis that abundance of the two species is influenced by different environmental variables, based on the fact that these two species evolved in different environments, have different host plants, and that R. pomonella is an introduced pest in WA while R. indifferens is native. We collected data on fly and host plant abundance at 61 randomly selected sites across WA in 2015 and 2016. We obtained land-cover, climate, and elevation data from online sources and used these data to derive relevant landscape variables and modeled fly abundance using generalized linear models. For R. pomonella, relatively high winter mean minimum temperature, low elevation, and developed land-cover were the top variables positively related to fly abundance. In contrast, for R. indifferens, the top variables related to greater fly abundance were high Hargreaves climatic moisture and annual heat-moisture deficits (indication of drier habitats), high host plant abundance, and developed land-cover. Our results identify key environmental variables driving Rhagoletis fly abundance in WA and can be used for understanding adaptation of insects to non-native and native habitats and for assisting fly quarantine and management decisions.

Estimation of Lower Developmental Threshold and Degree Days for Pupal Development of Different Geographical Populations of Chinese Citrus Fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) in China

The lower developmental threshold (LDT) and the number of developmental degree days (DDs) are fundamental parameters used to build phenology models that can be used to predict the timing of biological events during insect development. The Chinese citrus fly, Bactrocera minax (Enderlein) (Diptera: Tephritidae) is one of the most destructive citrus pest in China and Bhutan. This species overwinters as diapausing pupae in the soil before emerging as adults in the spring. In this study, B. minax collected from three representative geographical populations in China (Guizhou, Hubei, and Shaanxi) was used to conduct LDT experiments under laboratory conditions. Emergence data collected from pupae exposed to 10 constant temperatures was used to estimate the LDT and DDs required to complete pupal development for the three populations. The results show that LDT and DDs values for the Hubei and Shaanxi population are 11.9°C, 447.3 DDs and 11.5°C, 511.3 DDs, respectively. However, the geographic variation in pupal developmental rates was not statistically significant between the two populations. In addition, the Guizhou population was identified as a mixture of B. minax and B. tsuneonis (Miyake). The LDT and DDs values for the Hubei and Shaanxi populations obtained in this study can be used to predict adult emergence of naturally occurring field populations of B. minax within the majority of the citrus-growing production areas of China. These data can also be used in models to predict the risk of establishment of this species in the United States or other citrus-growing regions.

The Effect of Winter Length on Duration of Dormancy and Survival of Rhagoletis completa (Diptera: Tephritidae) and Associated Parasitoids From Northeastern Mexico

The walnut husk fly Rhagoletis completa (Cresson), native to the Midwestern United States and Mexico, is invasive in California and Europe. It is one of the most important pests of walnuts in areas gathering 30% of the world production. Knowledge of life-history regulation is important for the design of management strategies. Research on dormancy has been performed on invasive populations, and not on populations at the southern extreme of its native range. Here, we examined the effect of winter length on fly and parasitoid emergence, survival, and duration of dormancy. Percent emergence was higher for chill periods at 5°C ranging from 8 to 20 wk. No or insufficient chill resulted in low emergence and a significant proportion of individuals in prolonged dormancy (>1 yr). Duration of dormancy was longer for pupae at constant temperatures and a 4-wk chill period than longer winter durations. Dormancy was longer for Mexican than that reported for U.S. populations, suggesting the existence of a latitudinal cline where populations at southern latitudes have evolved slower metabolic rates. Three parasitoid species were found associated with R. completa (Aganaspis alujai (Wharton and Ovruski) (Hymenoptera: Figitidae), Diachasmimorpha juglandis Muesebeck, and Diachasmimorpha mellea Gahan) (Hymenoptera: Braconidae). Results suggest that rearing of R. completa is possible by subjecting pupae to chill periods between 8 and 20 wk. Overwintering mortality of flies and A. alujai could be further reduced above 5°C. Our findings can contribute for the accurate development of predictive models on invasion potential, development, fly and parasitoid rearing, and biological control.

Current and Future Potential Risk of Establishment of Grapholita molesta (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) in Washington State

The oriental fruit moth, Grapholita molesta (Busck) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), is a primary pest of stone fruits that cause significant economic damage. Larvae, which enter the host plant through shoot tips, damage shoots, and ripe fruits. Native to Asia, this pest now occurs in many fruit-growing countries, including the United States and Canada. Though the pest was previously reported from many states within the United States, its current distribution and the environmental variables that influence its distribution are not properly identified. The objectives of this study were to 1) identify the environmental factors associated with G. molesta current distribution, 2) predict the current distribution of G. molesta in Washington State (WA) using Maxent and Climex models, 3) identify those areas within WA best suited for establishment of pest free zones, areas of low pest prevalence, and pest free production areas, and 4) identify regions most at risk for further expansion of G. molesta populations as a function of climate change. The current models predicted a small portion of central WA is suitable to support G. molesta, which is consistent with observed distributions. However, climate change models predict that more areas will become suitable for the pest. These results indicate that action should be taken to monitor and reduce current populations of G. molesta to stem its potential expansion into the major commercial tree fruit production areas in the state.

Irrigation and Grass Cover Effects on Pupal Survival Rates in Soil and Adult Emergence Patterns of Rhagoletis indifferens (Diptera: Tephritidae)

Western cherry fruit fly, Rhagoletis indifferens (Curran; Diptera: Tephritidae), occurs in unmanaged cherries (Prunus spp.) across dry climates in Washington State and other regions in western United States and Canada. To help explain the fly's distribution in arid climates, we determined the effects of adding water to bare and grass-covered soils on pupal survival rates and adult emergence patterns of R. indifferens in central Washington. Water was added ('irrigated') or not to bare soil and grass-covered soil in cylinders pressed into the ground. Larvae were added to cylinders and pupal survival and adult fly emergence determined over three seasons. Irrigating bare soil had no effect on pupal survival or adult emergence, but in grass-covered soil, irrigation increased pupal survival (15.2-17.0% vs 6.7-9.5%) and adult emergence (2 of 3 yr, 12.8 and 24.1 vs 1.1 and 11.6%; no difference in 1 yr). Pupal survival was greater in bare (24.5-47.7%) than grass-covered soil (6.7-17.0%). Moisture was higher in irrigated than unirrigated treatments but within irrigated treatments, moisture in bare versus grass-covered soil did not differ. In both irrigated and unirrigated treatments, humidity in soil 5 cm below the surface where many pupae reside was >60%, including during summers. Results suggest R. indifferens pupae tolerate unirrigated soils during summer because soil moisture and high humidity there can prevent desiccation, contributing to the fly's wide distribution and abundance in dry climates, and that dry, grass-covered soils or mulch barriers in mid- and late-summer could reduce fly survival under some conditions.

Modeling and mapping the current and future distribution of Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae under climate change in China

OBJECTIVE

Bacterial canker of kiwifruit caused by Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae (Psa) is a major threat to the kiwifruit industry throughout the world and accounts for substantial economic losses in China. The aim of the present study was to test and explore the possibility of using MaxEnt (maximum entropy models) to predict and analyze the future large-scale distribution of Psa in China.

METHOD

Based on the current environmental factors, three future climate scenarios, which were suggested by the fifth IPCC report, and the current distribution sites of Psa, MaxEnt combined with ArcGIS was applied to predict the potential suitable areas and the changing trend of Psa in China. The jackknife test and correlation analysis were used to choose dominant climatic factors. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) drawn by MaxEnt was used to evaluate the accuracy of the simulation.

RESULT

The results showed that under current climatic conditions, the area from latitude 25° to 36°N and from longitude 101° to 122°E is the primary potential suitable area of Psa in China. The highly suitable area (with suitability between 66 and 100) was mainly concentrated in Northeast Sichuan, South Shaanxi, most of Chongqing, West Hubei and Southwest Gansu and occupied 4.94% of land in China. Under different future emission scenarios, both the areas and the centers of the suitable areas all showed differences compared with the current situation. Four climatic variables, i.e., maximum April temperature (19%), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (14%), precipitation in May (11.5%) and minimum temperature in October (10.8%), had the largest impact on the distribution of Psa.

CONCLUSION

The MaxEnt model is potentially useful for forecasting the future adaptive distribution of Psa under climate change, and it provides important guidance for comprehensive management.

Potential impacts of climate change on habitat suitability for the Queensland fruit fly

Anthropogenic climate change is a major factor driving shifts in the distributions of pests and invasive species. The Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni Froggatt (Qfly), is the most economically damaging insect pest of Australia's horticultural industry, and its management is a key priority for plant protection and biosecurity. Identifying the extent to which climate change may alter the distribution of suitable habitat for Qfly is important for the development and continuation of effective monitoring programs, phytosanitary measures, and management strategies. We used Maxent, a species distribution model, to map suitable habitat for Qfly under current climate, and six climate scenarios for 2030, 2050 and 2070. Our results highlight that south-western Australia, northern regions of the Northern Territory, eastern Queensland, and much of south-eastern Australia are currently suitable for Qfly. This includes southern Victoria and eastern Tasmania, which are currently free of breeding populations. There is substantial agreement across future climate scenarios that most areas currently suitable will remain so until at least 2070. Our projections provide an initial estimate of the potential exposure of Australia's horticultural industry to Qfly as climate changes, highlighting the need for long-term vigilance across southern Australia to prevent further range expansion of this species.

Use of necrophagous insects as evidence of cadaver relocation: myth or reality?

The use of insects as indicators of post-mortem displacement is discussed in many texts, courses and TV shows, and several studies addressing this issue have been published. Although the concept is widely cited, it is poorly understood, and only a few forensic cases have successfully applied such a method. The use of necrophagous insects as evidence of cadaver relocation actually involves a wide range of biological aspects. Distribution, microhabitat, phenology, behavioral ecology, and molecular analysis are among the research areas associated with this topic. This article provides the first review of the current knowledge and addresses the potential and limitations of different methods to evaluate their applicability. This work reveals numerous weaknesses and erroneous beliefs as well as many possibilities and research opportunities.