Investigating Mediators of the Poor Pneumonia Outcomes of Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Exposed but Uninfected Children

What are the risk factors for death among children with pneumonia in low- and middle-income countries? A systematic review

Background

Knowledge of the risk factors for and causes of treatment failure and mortality in childhood pneumonia is important for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment at an individual and population level. This review aimed to identify the most important risk factors for mortality among children aged under ten years with pneumonia.

Methods

We systematically searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PubMed for observational and interventional studies reporting risk factors for mortality in children (aged two months to nine years) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We screened articles according to specified inclusion and exclusion criteria, assessed risk of bias using the EPHPP framework, and extracted data on demographic, clinical, and laboratory risk factors for death. We synthesized data descriptively and using Forest plots and did not attempt meta-analysis due to the heterogeneity in study design, definitions, and populations.

Findings

We included 143 studies in this review. Hypoxaemia (low blood oxygen level), decreased conscious state, severe acute malnutrition, and the presence of an underlying chronic condition were the risk factors most strongly and consistently associated with increased mortality in children with pneumonia. Additional important clinical factors that were associated with mortality in the majority of studies included particular clinical signs (cyanosis, pallor, tachypnoea, chest indrawing, convulsions, diarrhoea), chronic comorbidities (anaemia, HIV infection, congenital heart disease, heart failure), as well as other non-severe forms of malnutrition. Important demographic factors associated with mortality in the majority of studies included age <12 months and inadequate immunisation. Important laboratory and investigation findings associated with mortality in the majority of studies included: confirmed Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia (PJP), consolidation on chest x-ray, pleural effusion on chest x-ray, and leukopenia. Several other demographic, clinical and laboratory findings were associated with mortality less consistently or in a small numbers of studies.

Conclusions

Risk assessment for children with pneumonia should include routine evaluation for hypoxaemia (pulse oximetry), decreased conscious state (e.g. AVPU), malnutrition (severe, moderate, and stunting), and the presence of an underlying chronic condition as these are strongly and consistently associated with increased mortality. Other potentially useful risk factors include the presence of pallor or anaemia, chest indrawing, young age (<12 months), inadequate immunisation, and leukopenia.

Severity of illness and mortality among children admitted to a tertiary referral hospital in Botswana: A secondary data analysis of a prospective cohort study

Objectives

Data on triage practices of children admitted to Princess Marina Hospital in Gaborone, Botswana is limited. The inpatient triage, assessment, and treatment score was developed for low resource settings to predict mortality in children. We assess its performance among children admitted to Princess Marina Hospital and their demographic, clinical, and risk factors for death.

Methods

This was a secondary data analysis of a prospective cohort study comprising 299 children ages 1 month to 13 years admitted June to September 2018. Descriptive statistics, bivariate analysis, and multivariate logistic regression were used. Sensitivity and specificity data were generated for the inpatient triage, assessment, and treatment score.

Results

Thirteen children died (13/284, 4.6%). Comorbidity (adjusted odds ratio 4.0, p = 0.020) and high inpatient triage, assessment, and treatment score (adjusted odds ratio 5.0, p = 0.017) increased odds of death. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.81. Using inpatient triage, assessment, and treatment cutoff of 4, the sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratio were 31%, 94%, and 5.0, respectively.

Conclusion

Implementing the inpatient triage, assessment, and treatment score in low resource settings may improve identification, treatment, and evaluation of the sickest children.

Antibiotic treatment failure in children aged 1 to 59 months with World Health Organization-defined severe pneumonia in Malawi: A CPAP IMPACT trial secondary analysis

BACKGROUND

Pneumonia is a leading cause of mortality in children <5 years globally. Early identification of hospitalized children with pneumonia who may fail antibiotics could improve outcomes. We conducted a secondary analysis from the Malawi CPAP IMPACT trial evaluating risk factors for antibiotic failure among children hospitalized with pneumonia.

METHODS

Participants were 1-59 months old with World Health Organization-defined severe pneumonia and hypoxemia, severe malnutrition, and/or HIV exposure/infection. All participants received intravenous antibiotics per standard care. First-line antibiotics were benzylpenicillin and gentamicin for five days. Study staff assessed patients for first-line antibiotic failure daily between days 3-6. When identified, patients failing antibiotics were switched to second-line ceftriaxone. Analyses excluded children receiving ceftriaxone and/or deceased by hospital day two. We compared characteristics between patients with and without treatment failure and fit multivariable logistic regression models to evaluate associations between treatment failure and admission characteristics.

RESULTS

From June 2015-March 2018, 644 children were enrolled and 538 analyzed. Antibiotic failure was identified in 251 (46.7%) participants, and 19/251 (7.6%) died. Treatment failure occurred more frequently with severe malnutrition (50.2% (126/251) vs 28.2% (81/287), p<0.001) and amongst those dwelling ≥10km from a health facility (22.3% (56/251) vs 15.3% (44/287), p = 0.026). Severe malnutrition occurred more frequently among children living ≥10km from a health facility than those living <10km (49.0% (49/100) vs 35.7% (275/428), p = 0.014). Children with severe malnutrition (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.2 (95% CI 1.52, 3.24), p<0.001) and pre-hospital antibiotics ((aOR 1.47, 95% CI 1.01, 2.14), p = 0.043) had an elevated aOR for antibiotic treatment failure.

CONCLUSION

Severe malnutrition and pre-hospital antibiotic use predicted antibiotic treatment failure in this high-risk severe pneumonia pediatric population in Malawi. Our findings suggest addressing complex sociomedical conditions like severe malnutrition and improving pneumonia etiology diagnostics will be key for better targeting interventions to improve childhood pneumonia outcomes.

Higher Hospitalization Rates in Children Born HIV-exposed Uninfected in British Columbia, Canada, Between 1990 and 2012

BACKGROUND

Compared with children who are HIV-unexposed and uninfected (CHUU), children who are HIV-exposed and uninfected (CHEU) experience more clinical complications. We investigated hospitalizations among CHEU by antenatal antiretroviral therapy (ART) exposure, in British Columbia, Canada.

METHODS

This retrospective controlled cohort study used administrative health data from 1990 to 2012. CHEU and CHUU were matched 1:3 for age, sex and maternal geographical area of residence. We determined adjusted odds ratios (aORs) via conditional logistic regression, adjusting for maternal risk factors.

RESULTS

A total of 446 CHEU and 1333 CHUU were included. Compared with CHUU, more CHEU experienced one or more lifetime hospitalization (47.3% vs. 29.8%), one or more neonatal hospitalization (40.4% vs. 27.6%), and any intensive care unit admission (28.5% vs. 9.2%). In adjusted analyses, CHEU experienced higher odds of any lifetime hospitalization (aOR 2.30, 95% confidence interval 1.81-2.91) and neonatal hospitalization (aOR 2.14, 95% confidence interval 1.68-2.73), compared with CHUU. There was, however, no difference in infection-related hospitalizations (9.0% vs. 7.5%), which were primarily respiratory tract infections among both CHEU and CHUU. CHEU whose mothers-initiated ART preconception showed lower odds of infection-related hospitalizations than children whose mothers initiated ART during pregnancy or received no ART.

CONCLUSIONS

CHEU experienced increased odds of hospitalization relative to CHUU. A substantial number of CHEU hospitalizations occurred within the neonatal period and were ICU admissions. Initiating ART preconception may reduce the risk of infection-related hospitalizations. These findings reinforce the benefit of ART in pregnancy and the need for ongoing pediatric care to reduce hospitalizations.

Global, regional, and national estimates of pneumonia morbidity and mortality in children younger than 5 years between 2000 and 2015: a systematic analysis

BACKGROUND

Global child mortality reduced substantially during the Millennium Development Goal period (2000-15). We aimed to estimate morbidity, mortality, and prevalence of risk factors for child pneumonia at the global, regional, and national level for developing countries for the Millennium Development Goal period.

METHODS

We estimated the incidence, number of hospital admissions, and in-hospital mortality due to all-cause clinical pneumonia in children younger than 5 years in developing countries at 5-year intervals during the Millennium Development Goal period (2000-15) using data from a systematic review and Poisson regression. We estimated the incidence and number of cases of clinical pneumonia, and the pneumonia burden attributable to HIV for 132 developing countries using a risk-factor-based model that used Demographic and Health Survey data on prevalence of the various risk factors for child pneumonia. We also estimated pneumonia mortality in young children using data from multicause models based on vital registration and verbal autopsy.

FINDINGS

Globally, the number of episodes of clinical pneumonia in young children decreased by 22% from 178 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 110-289) in 2000 to 138 million (86-226) in 2015. In 2015, India, Nigeria, Indonesia, Pakistan, and China contributed to more than 54% of all global pneumonia cases, with 32% of the global burden from India alone. Between 2000 and 2015, the burden of clinical pneumonia attributable to HIV decreased by 45%. Between 2000 and 2015, global hospital admissions for child pneumonia increased by 2·9 times with a more rapid increase observed in the WHO South-East Asia Region than the African Region. Pneumonia deaths in this age group decreased from 1·7 million (95% UI 1·7-2·0) in 2000 to 0·9 million (0·8-1·1) in 2015. In 2015, 49% of global pneumonia deaths occurred in India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Ethiopia collectively. All key risk factors for child pneumonia (non-exclusive breastfeeding, crowding, malnutrition, indoor air pollution, incomplete immunisation, and paediatric HIV), with the exception of low birthweight, decreased across all regions between 2000 and 2015.

INTERPRETATION

Globally, the incidence of child pneumonia decreased by 30% and mortality decreased by 51% during the Millennium Development Goal period. These reductions are consistent with the decrease in the prevalence of some of the key risk factors for pneumonia, increasing socioeconomic development and preventive interventions, improved access to care, and quality of care in hospitals. However, intersectoral action is required to improve socioeconomic conditions and increase coverage of interventions targeting risk factors for child pneumonia to accelerate decline in pneumonia mortality and achieve the Sustainable Development Goals for health by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Pneumonia in HIV-exposed and Infected Children and Association With Malnutrition

We evaluated the association between HIV exposed-uninfected (HEU) status, malnutrition and risk of death in Ugandan children hospitalized with pneumonia. Both HIV exposure and infection were associated with lower anthropometric indices on univariate analysis, and mid-upper arm circumference was significantly associated with overall mortality (odds ratio (OR), 0.96) in a multivariable model. HIV infection (OR 5.0) but not HEU status was associated with overall mortality. Malnutrition may contribute to poor pneumonia outcomes among HIV-infected and HEU children requiring hospitalization.