Assessing Uncertainty in the Rooting of the SARS-CoV-2 Phylogeny

Reticulate evolution: Detection and utility in the phylogenomics era

Phylogenomics has enriched our understanding that the Tree of Life can have network-like or reticulate structures among some taxa and genes. Two non-vertical modes of evolution - hybridization/introgression and horizontal gene transfer - deviate from a strictly bifurcating tree model, causing non-treelike patterns. However, these reticulate processes can produce similar patterns to incomplete lineage sorting or recombination, potentially leading to ambiguity. Here, we present a brief overview of a phylogenomic workflow for inferring organismal histories and compare methods for distinguishing modes of reticulate evolution. We discuss how the timing of coalescent events can help disentangle introgression from incomplete lineage sorting and how horizontal gene transfer events can help determine the relative timing of speciation events. In doing so, we identify pitfalls of certain methods and discuss how to extend their utility across the Tree of Life. Workflows, methods, and future directions discussed herein underscore the need to embrace reticulate evolutionary patterns for understanding the timing and rates of evolutionary events, providing a clearer view of life's history.

Evolutionary trajectory of diverse SARS-CoV-2 variants at the beginning of COVID-19 outbreak

Despite extensive scientific efforts directed toward the evolutionary trajectory of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in humans at the beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic, it remains unclear how the virus jumped into and evolved in humans so far. Herein, we recruited almost all adult coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases appeared locally or imported from abroad during the first 8 months of the outbreak in Shanghai. From these patients, SARS-CoV-2 genomes occupying the important phylogenetic positions in the virus phylogeny were recovered. Phylogenetic and mutational landscape analyses of viral genomes recovered here and those collected in and outside of China revealed that all known SARS-CoV-2 variants exhibited the evolutionary continuity despite the co-circulation of multiple lineages during the early period of the epidemic. Various mutations have driven the rapid SARS-CoV-2 diversification, and some of them favor its better adaptation and circulation in humans, which may have determined the waxing and waning of various lineages.

Protein structures unravel the signatures and patterns of deep time evolution

The formulation and testing of hypotheses using 'big biology data' often lie at the interface of computational biology and structural biology. The Protein Data Bank (PDB), which was established about 50 years ago, catalogs three-dimensional (3D) shapes of organic macromolecules and showcases a structural view of biology. The comparative analysis of the structures of homologs, particularly of proteins, from different species has significantly improved the in-depth analyses of molecular and cell biological questions. In addition, computational tools that were developed to analyze the 'protein universe' are providing the means for efficient resolution of longstanding debates in cell and molecular evolution. In celebrating the golden jubilee of the PDB, much has been written about the transformative impact of PDB on a broad range of fields of scientific inquiry and how structural biology transformed the study of the fundamental processes of life. Yet, the transforming influence of PDB on one field of inquiry of fundamental interest-the reconstruction of the distant biological past-has gone almost unnoticed. Here, I discuss the recent advances to highlight how insights and tools of structural biology are bearing on the data required for the empirical resolution of vigorously debated and apparently contradicting hypotheses in evolutionary biology. Specifically, I show that evolutionary characters defined by protein structure are superior compared to conventional sequence characters for reliable, data-driven resolution of competing hypotheses about the origins of the major clades of life and evolutionary relationship among those clades. Since the better quality data unequivocally support two primary domains of life, it is imperative that the primary classification of life be revised accordingly.

Incongruence in the phylogenomics era

Genome-scale data and the development of novel statistical phylogenetic approaches have greatly aided the reconstruction of a broad sketch of the tree of life and resolved many of its branches. However, incongruence - the inference of conflicting evolutionary histories - remains pervasive in phylogenomic data, hampering our ability to reconstruct and interpret the tree of life. Biological factors, such as incomplete lineage sorting, horizontal gene transfer, hybridization, introgression, recombination and convergent molecular evolution, can lead to gene phylogenies that differ from the species tree. In addition, analytical factors, including stochastic, systematic and treatment errors, can drive incongruence. Here, we review these factors, discuss methodological advances to identify and handle incongruence, and highlight avenues for future research.

Association between SARS-CoV-2 and metagenomic content of samples from the Huanan Seafood Market

The role of the Huanan Seafood Market in the early severe acute respiratory syndrome virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak remains unclear. Recently, the Chinese Centers for Disease Control (CDC) released data from deep sequencing of environmental samples collected from the market after it was closed on 1 January 2020. Prior to this release, Crits-Christoph et al. analyzed data from a subset of the samples. Both that study and the Chinese CDC study concurred that the samples contained genetic material from a variety of species, including some like raccoon dogs that are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2. However, neither study systematically analyzed the relationship between the amount of genetic material from SARS-CoV-2 and different animal species. Here I implement a fully reproducible computational pipeline that jointly analyzes the number of reads mapping to SARS-CoV-2 and the mitochondrial genomes of chordate species across the full set of samples. I validate the presence of genetic material from numerous species and calculate mammalian mitochondrial compositions similar to those reported by Crits-Christoph et al. However, the SARS-CoV-2 content of the environmental samples is generally very low: only 21 of 176 samples contain more than ten SARS-CoV-2 reads, despite most samples being sequenced to depths exceeding 108 total reads. None of the samples with double-digit numbers of SARS-CoV-2 reads have a substantial fraction of their mitochondrial material from any non-human susceptible species. Only one of the fourteen samples with at least a fifth of the chordate mitochondrial material from raccoon dogs contains any SARS-CoV-2 reads, and that sample only has 1 of ~200,000,000 reads mapping to SARS-CoV-2. Instead, SARS-CoV-2 reads are most correlated with reads mapping to various fish, such as catfish and largemouth bass. These results suggest that while metagenomic analysis of the environmental samples is useful for identifying animals or animal products sold at the market, co-mingling of animal and viral genetic material is unlikely to reliably indicate whether any animals were infected by SARS-CoV-2.

Impact and mitigation of sampling bias to determine viral spread: Evaluating discrete phylogeography through CTMC modeling and structured coalescent model approximations

Bayesian phylogeographic inference is a powerful tool in molecular epidemiological studies, which enables reconstruction of the origin and subsequent geographic spread of pathogens. Such inference is, however, potentially affected by geographic sampling bias. Here, we investigated the impact of sampling bias on the spatiotemporal reconstruction of viral epidemics using Bayesian discrete phylogeographic models and explored different operational strategies to mitigate this impact. We considered the continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model and two structured coalescent approximations (Bayesian structured coalescent approximation [BASTA] and marginal approximation of the structured coalescent [MASCOT]). For each approach, we compared the estimated and simulated spatiotemporal histories in biased and unbiased conditions based on the simulated epidemics of rabies virus (RABV) in dogs in Morocco. While the reconstructed spatiotemporal histories were impacted by sampling bias for the three approaches, BASTA and MASCOT reconstructions were also biased when employing unbiased samples. Increasing the number of analyzed genomes led to more robust estimates at low sampling bias for the CTMC model. Alternative sampling strategies that maximize the spatiotemporal coverage greatly improved the inference at intermediate sampling bias for the CTMC model, and to a lesser extent, for BASTA and MASCOT. In contrast, allowing for time-varying population sizes in MASCOT resulted in robust inference. We further applied these approaches to two empirical datasets: a RABV dataset from the Philippines and a SARS-CoV-2 dataset describing its early spread across the world. In conclusion, sampling biases are ubiquitous in phylogeographic analyses but may be accommodated by increasing the sample size, balancing spatial and temporal composition in the samples, and informing structured coalescent models with reliable case count data.

Molecular Evolution of SARS-CoV-2 during the COVID-19 Pandemic

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) produced diverse molecular variants during its recent expansion in humans that caused different transmissibility and severity of the associated disease as well as resistance to monoclonal antibodies and polyclonal sera, among other treatments. In order to understand the causes and consequences of the observed SARS-CoV-2 molecular diversity, a variety of recent studies investigated the molecular evolution of this virus during its expansion in humans. In general, this virus evolves with a moderate rate of evolution, in the order of 10-3-10-4 substitutions per site and per year, which presents continuous fluctuations over time. Despite its origin being frequently associated with recombination events between related coronaviruses, little evidence of recombination was detected, and it was mostly located in the spike coding region. Molecular adaptation is heterogeneous among SARS-CoV-2 genes. Although most of the genes evolved under purifying selection, several genes showed genetic signatures of diversifying selection, including a number of positively selected sites that affect proteins relevant for the virus replication. Here, we review current knowledge about the molecular evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in humans, including the emergence and establishment of variants of concern. We also clarify relationships between the nomenclatures of SARS-CoV-2 lineages. We conclude that the molecular evolution of this virus should be monitored over time for predicting relevant phenotypic consequences and designing future efficient treatments.

Viral Cultures for Assessing Fomite Transmission of SARS-CoV-2: a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

The role of fomites in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is unclear.

Aim

To assess whether SARS-CoV-2 can be transmitted through fomites, using evidence from viral culture studies.

Methods

Searches were conducted in the World Health Organization COVID-19 Database, PubMed, LitCovid, medRxiv, and Google Scholar to December 31^st, 2021. Studies that investigated fomite transmission and performed viral culture to assess the cytopathic effect (CPE) of positive fomite samples and confirmation of SARS-CoV-2 as the cause of the CPE were included. The risk of bias using a checklist modified from the modified Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies – 2 (QUADAS-2) criteria was assessed.

Findings

Twenty-three studies were included. The overall risk of bias was moderate. Five studies demonstrated replication-competent virus from fomite cultures and three used genome sequencing to match fomite samples with human clinical specimens. The mean cycle threshold (C_T) of samples with positive viral culture was significantly lower compared with cultured samples that returned negative results (standardized mean difference: –1.45; 95% confidence interval (CI): –2.00 to –0.90; I² = 0%; P < 0.00001). The likelihood of isolating replication-competent virus was significantly greater when C_T was <30 (relative risk: 3.10; 95% CI: 1.32 to 7.31; I² = 71%; P = 0.01). Infectious specimens were mostly detected within seven days of symptom onset. One study showed possible transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from fomites to humans.

Conclusion

The evidence from published studies suggests that replication-competent SARS-CoV-2 is present on fomites. Replication-competent SARS-CoV-2 is significantly more likely when the PCR C_T for clinical specimens and fomite samples is <30. Further studies should investigate the duration of infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2 and the frequency of transmission from fomites.

The molecular epidemiology of multiple zoonotic origins of SARS-CoV-2

Understanding the circumstances that lead to pandemics is important for their prevention. We analyzed the genomic diversity of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) early in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We show that SARS-CoV-2 genomic diversity before February 2020 likely comprised only two distinct viral lineages, denoted "A" and "B." Phylodynamic rooting methods, coupled with epidemic simulations, reveal that these lineages were the result of at least two separate cross-species transmission events into humans. The first zoonotic transmission likely involved lineage B viruses around 18 November 2019 (23 October to 8 December), and the separate introduction of lineage A likely occurred within weeks of this event. These findings indicate that it is unlikely that SARS-CoV-2 circulated widely in humans before November 2019 and define the narrow window between when SARS-CoV-2 first jumped into humans and when the first cases of COVID-19 were reported. As with other coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-2 emergence likely resulted from multiple zoonotic events.

A Single Early Introduction Governed Viral Diversity in the Second Wave of SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic in Hungary

Retrospective evaluation of past waves of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic is key for designing optimal interventions against future waves and novel pandemics. Here, we report on analysing genome sequences of SARS-CoV-2 from the first two waves of the epidemic in 2020 in Hungary, mirroring a suppression and a mitigation strategy, respectively. Our analysis reveals that the two waves markedly differed in viral diversity and transmission patterns. Specifically, unlike in several European areas or in the USA, we have found no evidence for early introduction and cryptic transmission of the virus in the first wave of the pandemic in Hungary. Despite the introduction of multiple viral lineages, extensive community spread was prevented by a timely national lockdown in March 2020. In sharp contrast, the majority of the cases in the much larger second wave can be linked to a single transmission lineage of the pan-European B.1.160 variant. This lineage was introduced unexpectedly early, followed by a 2-month-long cryptic transmission before a soar of detected cases in September 2020. Epidemic analysis has revealed that the dominance of this lineage in the second wave was not associated with an intrinsic transmission advantage. This finding is further supported by the rapid replacement of B.1.160 by the alpha variant (B.1.1.7) that launched the third wave of the epidemic in February 2021. Overall, these results illustrate how the founder effect in combination with the cryptic transmission, instead of repeated international introductions or higher transmissibility, can govern viral diversity.

Genomic epidemiological models describe pathogen evolution across fitness valleys

Genomics is fundamentally changing epidemiological research. However, systematically exploring hypotheses in pathogen evolution requires new modeling tools. Models intertwining pathogen epidemiology and genomic evolution can help understand processes such as the emergence of novel pathogen genotypes with higher transmissibility or resistance to treatment. In this work, we present Opqua, a flexible simulation framework that explicitly links epidemiology to sequence evolution and selection. We use Opqua to study determinants of evolution across fitness valleys. We confirm that competition can limit evolution in high-transmission environments and find that low transmission, host mobility, and complex pathogen life cycles facilitate reaching new adaptive peaks through population bottlenecks and decoupling of selective pressures. The results show the potential of genomic epidemiological modeling as a tool in infectious disease research.

A multi-tissue study of immune gene expression profiling highlights the key role of the nasal epithelium in COVID-19 severity

Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) symptoms range from mild to severe illness; the cause for this differential response to infection remains unknown. Unravelling the immune mechanisms acting at different levels of the colonization process might be key to understand these differences. We carried out a multi-tissue (nasal, buccal and blood; n = 156) gene expression analysis of immune-related genes from patients affected by different COVID-19 severities, and healthy controls through the nCounter technology. Mild and asymptomatic cases showed a powerful innate antiviral response in nasal epithelium, characterized by activation of interferon (IFN) pathway and downstream cascades, successfully controlling the infection at local level. In contrast, weak macrophage/monocyte driven innate antiviral response and lack of IFN signalling activity were present in severe cases. Consequently, oral mucosa from severe patients showed signals of viral activity, cell arresting and viral dissemination to the lower respiratory tract, which ultimately could explain the exacerbated innate immune response and impaired adaptative immune responses observed at systemic level. Results from saliva transcriptome suggest that the buccal cavity might play a key role in SARS-CoV-2 infection and dissemination in patients with worse prognosis. Co-expression network analysis adds further support to these findings, by detecting modules specifically correlated with severity involved in the abovementioned biological routes; this analysis also provides new candidate genes that might be tested as biomarkers in future studies. We also found tissue specific severity-related signatures mainly represented by genes involved in the innate immune system and cytokine/chemokine signalling. Local immune response could be key to determine the course of the systemic response and thus COVID-19 severity. Our findings provide a framework to investigate severity host gene biomarkers and pathways that might be relevant to diagnosis, prognosis, and therapy.

TopHap: rapid inference of key phylogenetic structures from common haplotypes in large genome collections with limited diversity

MOTIVATION

Building reliable phylogenies from very large collections of sequences with a limited number of phylogenetically informative sites is challenging because sequencing errors and recurrent/backward mutations interfere with the phylogenetic signal, confounding true evolutionary relationships. Massive global efforts of sequencing genomes and reconstructing the phylogeny of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) strains exemplify these difficulties since there are only hundreds of phylogenetically informative sites but millions of genomes. For such datasets, we set out to develop a method for building the phylogenetic tree of genomic haplotypes consisting of positions harboring common variants to improve the signal-to-noise ratio for more accurate and fast phylogenetic inference of resolvable phylogenetic features.

RESULTS

We present the TopHap approach that determines spatiotemporally common haplotypes of common variants and builds their phylogeny at a fraction of the computational time of traditional methods. We develop a bootstrap strategy that resamples genomes spatiotemporally to assess topological robustness. The application of TopHap to build a phylogeny of 68 057 SARS-CoV-2 genomes (68KG) from the first year of the pandemic produced an evolutionary tree of major SARS-CoV-2 haplotypes. This phylogeny is concordant with the mutation tree inferred using the co-occurrence pattern of mutations and recovers key phylogenetic relationships from more traditional analyses. We also evaluated alternative roots of the SARS-CoV-2 phylogeny and found that the earliest sampled genomes in 2019 likely evolved by four mutations of the most recent common ancestor of all SARS-CoV-2 genomes. An application of TopHap to more than 1 million SARS-CoV-2 genomes reconstructed the most comprehensive evolutionary relationships of major variants, which confirmed the 68KG phylogeny and provided evolutionary origins of major and recent variants of concern.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

TopHap is available at https://github.com/SayakaMiura/TopHap.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

On the Origin and Propagation of the COVID-19 Outbreak in the Italian Province of Trento, a Tourist Region of Northern Italy

Background: Trentino is an Italian province with a tourism-based economy, bordering the regions of Lombardy and Veneto, where the two earliest and largest outbreaks of COVID-19 occurred in Italy. The earliest cases in Trentino were reported in the first week of March 2020, with most of the cases occurring in the winter sport areas in the Dolomites mountain range. The number of reported cases decreased over the summer months and was followed by a second wave in the autumn and winter of 2020. Methods: we performed high-coverage Oxford Nanopore sequencing of 253 positive SARS-CoV-2 swabs collected in Trentino between March and December 2020. Results: in this work, we analyzed genome sequences to trace the routes through which the virus entered the area, and assessed whether the autumnal resurgence could be attributed to lineages persisting undetected during summer, or as a consequence of new introductions. Conclusions: Comparing the draft genomes analyzed with a large selection of European sequences retrieved from GISAID we found that multiple introductions of the virus occurred at the early stage of the epidemics; the two epidemic waves were unrelated; the second wave was due to reintroductions of the virus in summer when traveling restrictions were uplifted.

Periodically aperiodic pattern of SARS-CoV-2 mutations underpins the uncertainty of its origin and evolution

Various lineages of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) have contributed to prolongation of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Several non-synonymous mutations in SARS-CoV-2 proteins have generated multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants. In our previous report, we have shown that an evenly uneven distribution of unique protein variants of SARS-CoV-2 is geo-location or demography-specific. However, the correlation between the demographic transmutability of the SARS-CoV-2 infection and mutations in various proteins remains unknown due to hidden symmetry/asymmetry in the occurrence of mutations. This study tracked how these mutations are emerging in SARS-CoV-2 proteins in six model countries and globally. In a geo-location, considering the mutations having a frequency of detection of at least 500 in each SARS-CoV-2 protein, we studied the country-wise percentage of invariant residues. Our data revealed that since October 2020, highly frequent mutations in SARS-CoV-2 have been observed mostly in the Open Reading Frame (ORF) 7b and ORF8, worldwide. No such highly frequent mutations in any of the SARS-CoV-2 proteins were found in the UK, India, and Brazil, which does not correlate with the degree of transmissibility of the virus in India and Brazil. However, we have found a signature that SARS-CoV-2 proteins were evolving at a higher rate, and considering global data, mutations are detected in the majority of the available amino acid locations. Fractal analysis of each protein's normalized factor time series showed a periodically aperiodic emergence of dominant variants for SARS-CoV-2 protein mutations across different countries. It was noticed that certain high-frequency variants have emerged in the last couple of months, and thus the emerging SARS-CoV-2 strains are expected to contain prevalent mutations in the ORF3a, membrane, and ORF8 proteins. In contrast to other beta-coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-2 variants have rapidly emerged based on demographically dependent mutations. Characterization of the periodically aperiodic nature of the demographic spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants in various countries can contribute to the identification of the origin of SARS-CoV-2.

The performance of outgroup-free rooting under evolutionary radiations

Tree rooting implies a temporal dimension to phylogenies. Only after defining the position of the root node is that the ancestral-descendant relationship between branches can be fully deduced. Rooting has been usually carried out by employing evolutionarily close outgroup lineages, which is a drawback when these lineages are unavailable or unknown. Alternatively, outgroup-free rooting methods were proposed, which rely on the constancy of evolutionary rates to varying degrees. In this work we analyzed the performance of two of these methods, the midpoint rooting (MPR) and the minimal ancestor deviation (MAD), in rooting topologies evolved under challenging scenarios of fast evolutionary radiations derived from empirical data, characterized by short internal branches near the crown node. Considering all branch length combinations investigated, both methods exhibited average success rates below 50%, although MAD slightly outperformed MPR. Moreover, tree balance significantly impacted the relative performance of the methods. We found that, in four-taxa unrooted trees, the outcome of whether both methodologies will correctly root the tree can be roughly predicted by two simple dimensionless metrics: the coefficient of variation of the external branch lengths, and the ratio between the internal branch length to the total sum of branch lengths, which were employed to devise a general linear model that allowed calculating the probability of correct placing the root node for any four-taxa tree. We predicted that the performance of both outgroup-free rooting methods on loci representing the placental mammal radiation ranged between 50% and 75%.

Nasopharyngeal microbiome reveals the prevalence of opportunistic pathogens in SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals and their association with host types

The novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is causing a severe global health emergency owing to its highly infectious nature. Although the symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 are well known but its impact on nasopharyngeal microbiome is poorly studied. The present cross-sectional study was intended to understand the perturbation in the nasopharyngeal microbiome composition within the infected (n = 63) and non-infected (n = 26) individuals using 16S rRNA gene based targeted amplicon sequencing and their association with host types and the prevalence of opportunistic pathogens at the stage of infection. The results confirmed that number of OTUs were significantly (p < 0.05) decreased in the SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals in comparison to non-infected individuals. Pairwise Wilcoxon test showed a significant (p < 0.05) increase in the abundance of Proteobacteria in infected individuals compared to non-infected ones and vice-versa for Fusobacteria and Bacteroidetes. Similarity percentage (SIMPER) analysis showed the increment in the abundance of opportunistic pathogens (Haemophilus, Stenotrophomonas, Acinetobacter, Moraxella, Corynebacterium 1, Gemella, Ralstonia, and Pseudomonas) involved in secondary infection. Furthermore, this study highlighted the microbial community structure of individuals within and across the families. In this study, we also performed the assesment of microbiome associated with host types (age and genders) and COVID-19 conditions (symptomatic and asymptomatic). The data suggested that the host types/conditions during the COVID-19 infection are potential factors in enrichment of specific bacterial communities in upper respiratory tract.

TopHap: Rapid inference of key phylogenetic structures from common haplotypes in large genome collections with limited diversity

MOTIVATION

Building reliable phylogenies from very large collections of sequences with a limited number of phylogenetically informative sites is challenging because sequencing errors and recurrent/backward mutations interfere with the phylogenetic signal, confounding true evolutionary relationships. Massive global efforts of sequencing genomes and reconstructing the phylogeny of SARS-CoV-2 strains exemplify these difficulties since there are only hundreds of phylogenetically informative sites and millions of genomes. For such datasets, we set out to develop a method for building the phylogenetic tree of genomic haplotypes consisting of positions harboring common variants to improve the signal-to-noise ratio for more accurate phylogenetic inference of resolvable phylogenetic features.

RESULTS

We present the TopHap approach that determines spatiotemporally common haplotypes of common variants and builds their phylogeny at a fraction of the computational time of traditional methods. To assess topological robustness, we develop a bootstrap resampling strategy that resamples genomes spatiotemporally. The application of TopHap to build a phylogeny of 68,057 genomes (68KG) produced an evolutionary tree of major SARS-CoV-2 haplotypes. This phylogeny is concordant with the mutation tree inferred using the co-occurrence pattern of mutations and recovers key phylogenetic relationships from more traditional analyses. We also evaluated alternative roots of the SARS-CoV-2 phylogeny and found that the earliest sampled genomes in 2019 likely evolved by four mutations of the most recent common ancestor of all SARS-CoV-2 genomes. An application of TopHap to more than 1 million genomes reconstructed the most comprehensive evolutionary relationships of major variants, which confirmed the 68KG phylogeny and provided evolutionary origins of major variants of concern.

AVAILABILITY

TopHap is available on the web at https://github.com/SayakaMiura/TopHap .

CONTACT

s.kumar@temple.edu.

Recovery of Deleted Deep Sequencing Data Sheds More Light on the Early Wuhan SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic

The origin and early spread of SARS-CoV-2 remains shrouded in mystery. Here, I identify a data set containing SARS-CoV-2 sequences from early in the Wuhan epidemic that has been deleted from the NIH's Sequence Read Archive. I recover the deleted files from the Google Cloud and reconstruct partial sequences of 13 early epidemic viruses. Phylogenetic analysis of these sequences in the context of carefully annotated existing data further supports the idea that the Huanan Seafood Market sequences are not fully representative of the viruses in Wuhan early in the epidemic. Instead, the progenitor of currently known SARS-CoV-2 sequences likely contained three mutations relative to the market viruses that made it more similar to SARS-CoV-2's bat coronavirus relatives.

SNP and Phylogenetic Characterization of Low Viral Load SARS-CoV-2 Specimens by Target Enrichment

Background: Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 across the globe has enabled detection of new variants and informed the public health response. With highly sensitive methods like qPCR widely adopted for diagnosis, the ability to sequence and characterize specimens with low titers needs to keep pace.

Methods: Nucleic acids extracted from nasopharyngeal swabs collected from four sites in the United States in early 2020 were converted to NGS libraries to sequence SARS-CoV-2 genomes using metagenomic and xGen target enrichment approaches. Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) analysis and phylogeny were used to determine clade assignments and geographic origins of strains.

Results: SARS-CoV-2-specific xGen enrichment enabled full genome coverage for 87 specimens with Ct values &lt;29, corresponding to viral loads of &gt;10,000 cp/ml. For samples with viral loads between 103 and 106 cp/ml, the median genome coverage for xGen was 99.1%, sequence depth was 605X, and the “on-target” rate was 57 ± 21%, compared to 13%, 2X and 0.001 ± 0.016%, respectively, for metagenomic sequencing alone. Phylogenetic analysis revealed the presence of most clades that existed at the time of the study, though clade GH dominated in the Midwest.

Conclusions: Even as vaccines are being widely distributed, a high case load of SARS-CoV-2 infection persists around the world. Viral genetic surveillance has succeeded in warning the public of new variants in circulation and ensured that diagnostic tools remain resilient to a steadily increasing number of mutations. Target capture offers a means of characterizing low viral load samples which would normally pose a challenge for metagenomic sequencing.

Potential Achilles heels of SARS-CoV-2 are best displayed by the base order-dependent component of RNA folding energy

The base order-dependent component of folding energy has revealed a highly conserved region in HIV-1 genomes that associates with RNA structure. This corresponds to a packaging signal that is recognized by the nucleocapsid domain of the Gag polyprotein. Long viewed as a potential HIV-1 "Achilles heel," the signal can be targeted by a new antiviral compound. Although SARS-CoV-2 differs in many respects from HIV-1, the same technology displays regions with a high base order-dependent folding energy component, which are also highly conserved. This indicates structural invariance (SI) sustained by natural selection. While the regions are often also protein-encoding (e. g. NSP3, ORF3a), we suggest that their nucleic acid level functions can be considered potential "Achilles heels" for SARS-CoV-2, perhaps susceptible to therapies like those envisaged for AIDS. The ribosomal frameshifting element scored well, but higher SI scores were obtained in other regions, including those encoding NSP13 and the nucleocapsid (N) protein.

An Evolutionary Portrait of the Progenitor SARS-CoV-2 and Its Dominant Offshoots in COVID-19 Pandemic

Global sequencing of genomes of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has continued to reveal new genetic variants that are the key to unraveling its early evolutionary history and tracking its global spread over time. Here we present the heretofore cryptic mutational history and spatiotemporal dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 from an analysis of thousands of high-quality genomes. We report the likely most recent common ancestor of SARS-CoV-2, reconstructed through a novel application and advancement of computational methods initially developed to infer the mutational history of tumor cells in a patient. This progenitor genome differs from genomes of the first coronaviruses sampled in China by three variants, implying that none of the earliest patients represent the index case or gave rise to all the human infections. However, multiple coronavirus infections in China and the United States harbored the progenitor genetic fingerprint in January 2020 and later, suggesting that the progenitor was spreading worldwide months before and after the first reported cases of COVID-19 in China. Mutations of the progenitor and its offshoots have produced many dominant coronavirus strains that have spread episodically over time. Fingerprinting based on common mutations reveals that the same coronavirus lineage has dominated North America for most of the pandemic in 2020. There have been multiple replacements of predominant coronavirus strains in Europe and Asia as well as continued presence of multiple high-frequency strains in Asia and North America. We have developed a continually updating dashboard of global evolution and spatiotemporal trends of SARS-CoV-2 spread (http://sars2evo.datamonkey.org/).

Phylogenetic Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Data Is Difficult

Numerous studies covering some aspects of SARS-CoV-2 data analyses are being published on a daily basis, including a regularly updated phylogeny on nextstrain.org. Here, we review the difficulties of inferring reliable phylogenies by example of a data snapshot comprising a quality-filtered subset of 8,736 out of all 16,453 virus sequences available on May 5, 2020 from gisaid.org. We find that it is difficult to infer a reliable phylogeny on these data due to the large number of sequences in conjunction with the low number of mutations. We further find that rooting the inferred phylogeny with some degree of confidence either via the bat and pangolin outgroups or by applying novel computational methods on the ingroup phylogeny does not appear to be credible. Finally, an automatic classification of the current sequences into subclasses using the mPTP tool for molecular species delimitation is also, as might be expected, not possible, as the sequences are too closely related. We conclude that, although the application of phylogenetic methods to disentangle the evolution and spread of COVID-19 provides some insight, results of phylogenetic analyses, in particular those conducted under the default settings of current phylogenetic inference tools, as well as downstream analyses on the inferred phylogenies, should be considered and interpreted with extreme caution.

Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province

Understanding when severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged is critical to evaluating our current approach to monitoring novel zoonotic pathogens and understanding the failure of early containment and mitigation efforts for COVID-19. We used a coalescent framework to combine retrospective molecular clock inference with forward epidemiological simulations to determine how long SARS-CoV-2 could have circulated before the time of the most recent common ancestor of all sequenced SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Our results define the period between mid-October and mid-November 2019 as the plausible interval when the first case of SARS-CoV-2 emerged in Hubei province, China. By characterizing the likely dynamics of the virus before it was discovered, we show that more than two-thirds of SARS-CoV-2-like zoonotic events would be self-limited, dying out without igniting a pandemic. Our findings highlight the shortcomings of zoonosis surveillance approaches for detecting highly contagious pathogens with moderate mortality rates.

Intercontinental transmission and local demographic expansion of SARS-CoV-2

The global outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is greatly threatening the public health in the world. We reconstructed global transmissions and potential demographic expansions of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 based on genomic information. We found that intercontinental transmissions were rare in January and early February but drastically increased since late February. After world-wide implements of travel restrictions, the transmission frequencies decreased to a low level in April. We identified a total of 88 potential demographic expansions over the world based on the star-radiative networks and 75 of them were found in Europe and North America. The expansion numbers peaked in March and quickly dropped since April. These findings are highly concordant with epidemic reports and modelling results and highlight the significance of quarantine validity on the global spread of COVID-19. Our analyses indicate that the travel restrictions and social distancing measures are effective in containing the spread of COVID-19.

SARS-CoV-2 Molecular Transmission Clusters and Containment Measures in Ten European Regions during the First Pandemic Wave

Background: The spatiotemporal profiling of molecular transmission clusters (MTCs) using viral genomic data can effectively identify transmission networks in order to inform public health actions targeting SARS-CoV-2 spread. Methods: We used whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences derived from ten European regions belonging to eight countries to perform phylogenetic and phylodynamic analysis. We developed dedicated bioinformatics pipelines to identify regional MTCs and to assess demographic factors potentially associated with their formation. Results: The total number and the scale of MTCs varied from small household clusters identified in all regions, to a super-spreading event found in Uusimaa-FI. Specific age groups were more likely to belong to MTCs in different regions. The clustered sequences referring to the age groups 50–100 years old (y.o.) were increased in all regions two weeks after the establishment of the lockdown, while those referring to the age group 0–19 y.o. decreased only in those regions where schools’ closure was combined with a lockdown. Conclusions: The spatiotemporal profiling of the SARS-CoV-2 MTCs can be a useful tool to monitor the effectiveness of the interventions and to reveal cryptic transmissions that have not been identified through contact tracing.

SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance in Rondônia, Brazilian Western Amazon

SARS-CoV-2 has spread rapidly around the world, with Brazil currently considered an epicenter of the pandemic. The Northern region has the second highest incidence coefficient, as well as the third highest mortality rate in the country. This study aimed to investigate information about the evolutionary history of epidemic spread and genetic aspects of strains isolated on the Western Amazon, in the State of Rondônia, Brazil. It was possible to detect a total of 22 mutations. Some of these alterations may possibly be related to effects on transmissibility, the fidelity of RNA replication, the ability of cancer patients to respond to infection, beyond a mutation that emerged after the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in Rondônia. At least two events of introduction were detected, corresponding to the B.1 and B.1.1 European lineages. An introduction was observed possibly through Argentina, where strains originated that circulated in the Minas Gerais and Ceará Brazilian states, prior to Rondônia (B.1.), as well as through the Minas Gerais state and the Federal District, which gave rise to strains that spread to Rondônia, from the capital to more rural parts of the state (B.1.1.). The findings show the need to monitor the genetic epidemiology of COVID-19, in order to surveil the virus’s evolution, dispersion and diversity.