Performance of relaxed-clock methods in estimating evolutionary divergence times and their credibility intervals

Modeling Substitution Rate Evolution across Lineages and Relaxing the Molecular Clock

Relaxing the molecular clock using models of how substitution rates change across lineages has become essential for addressing evolutionary problems. The diversity of rate evolution models and their implementations are substantial, and studies have demonstrated their impact on divergence time estimates can be as significant as that of calibration information. In this review, we trace the development of rate evolution models from the proposal of the molecular clock concept to the development of sophisticated Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods that handle rate variation in phylogenies. We discuss the various approaches to modeling rate evolution, provide a comprehensive list of available software, and examine the challenges and advancements of the prevalent Bayesian framework, contrasting them to faster non-Bayesian methods. Lastly, we offer insights into potential advancements in the field in the era of big data.

No phylogenomic support for a Cenozoic origin of the "living fossil" Isoetes

PREMISE

The isoetalean lineage has a rich fossil record that extends to the Devonian, but the age of the living clade is unclear. Recent results indicate that it is young, from the Cenozoic, whereas earlier work based on less data from a denser taxon sampling yielded Mesozoic median ages.

METHODS

We analyzed node ages in Isoetes using two genomic data sets (plastome and nuclear ribosomal cistron), three clock models implemented in MrBayes (ILN, WN, and TK02 models), and a conservative approach to calibration.

RESULTS

While topological results were consistently resolved in Isoetes estimated crown group ages range from the latest Paleozoic (mid-Permian) to the Mesozoic depending on data type and clock model. The oldest estimates were retrieved using the autocorrelated TK02 clock model. An (early) Cenozoic age was only obtained under one specific condition (plastome data analyzed with the uncorrelated ILN clock model). That same plastome data set also yielded the oldest (mid-Permian) age estimate when analyzed with the autocorrelated TK02 clock model. Adding the highly divergent, recently established sister species Isoetes wormaldii to the data set approximately doubled the average median node depth to the Isoetes crown group.

CONCLUSIONS

There is no consistent support for a Cenozoic origin of the living clade Isoetes. We obtained seemingly well-founded, yet strongly deviating results depending on data type and clock model. The single most important future improvement is probably to add calibration points, which requires an improved understanding of the isoetalean fossil record or alternative bases for calibration.

Complete mitochondrial genomes and updated divergence time of the two freshwater clupeids endemic to Lake Tanganyika (Africa) suggest intralacustrine speciation

Background

The hydrogeological history of Lake Tanganyika paints a complex image of several colonization and adaptive radiation events. The initial basin was formed around 9–12 million years ago (MYA) from the predecessor of the Malagarasi–Congo River and only 5–6 MYA, its sub-basins fused to produce the clear, deep waters of today. Next to the well-known radiations of cichlid fishes, the lake also harbours a modest clade of only two clupeid species, Stolothrissatanganicae and Limnothrissamiodon. They are members of Pellonulini, a tribe of clupeid fishes that mostly occur in freshwater and that colonized West and Central-Africa during a period of high sea levels during the Cenozoic. There is no consensus on the phylogenetic relationships between members of Pellonulini and the timing of the colonization of Lake Tanganyika by clupeids.

Results

We use short-read next generation sequencing of 10X Chromium libraries to sequence and assemble the full mitochondrial genomes of S.tanganicae and L.miodon. We then use Maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference to place them into the phylogeny of Pellonulini and other clupeiforms, taking advantage of all available full mitochondrial clupeiform genomes. We identify Potamothrissaobtusirostris as the closest living relative of the Tanganyika sardines and confirm paraphyly for Microthrissa. We estimate the divergence of the Tanganyika sardines around 3.64 MYA [95% CI: 0.99, 6.29], and from P.obtusirostris around 10.92 MYA [95% CI: 6.37–15.48].

Conclusions

These estimates imply that the ancestor of the Tanganyika sardines diverged from a riverine ancestor and entered the proto-lake Tanganyika around the time of its formation from the Malagarasi–Congo River, and diverged into the two extant species at the onset of deep clearwater conditions. Our results prompt a more thorough examination of the relationships within Pellonulini, and the new mitochondrial genomes provide an important resource for the future study of this tribe, e.g. as a reference for species identification, genetic diversity, and macroevolutionary studies.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12862-022-02085-8.

Investigating the reliability of molecular estimates of evolutionary time when substitution rates and speciation rates vary

Background

An accurate timescale of evolutionary history is essential to testing hypotheses about the influence of historical events and processes, and the timescale for evolution is increasingly derived from analysis of DNA sequences. But variation in the rate of molecular evolution complicates the inference of time from DNA. Evidence is growing for numerous factors, such as life history and habitat, that are linked both to the molecular processes of mutation and fixation and to rates of macroevolutionary diversification. However, the most widely used methods rely on idealised models of rate variation, such as the uncorrelated and autocorrelated clocks, and molecular dating methods are rarely tested against complex models of rate change. One relationship that is not accounted for in molecular dating is the potential for interaction between molecular substitution rates and speciation, a relationship that has been supported by empirical studies in a growing number of taxa. If these relationships are as widespread as current evidence suggests, they may have a significant influence on molecular dates.

Results

We simulate phylogenies and molecular sequences under three different realistic rate variation models—one in which speciation rates and substitution rates both vary but are unlinked, one in which they covary continuously and one punctuated model in which molecular change is concentrated in speciation events, using empirical case studies to parameterise realistic simulations. We test three commonly used “relaxed clock” molecular dating methods against these realistic simulations to explore the degree of error in molecular dates under each model. We find average divergence time inference errors ranging from 12% of node age for the unlinked model when reconstructed under an uncorrelated rate prior using BEAST 2, to up to 91% when sequences evolved under the punctuated model are reconstructed under an autocorrelated prior using PAML.

Conclusions

We demonstrate the potential for substantial errors in molecular dates when both speciation rates and substitution rates vary between lineages. This study highlights the need for tests of molecular dating methods against realistic models of rate variation generated from empirical parameters and known relationships.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12862-022-02015-8.

Root Digger: a root placement program for phylogenetic trees

BACKGROUND

In phylogenetic analysis, it is common to infer unrooted trees. However, knowing the root location is desirable for downstream analyses and interpretation. There exist several methods to recover a root, such as molecular clock analysis (including midpoint rooting) or rooting the tree using an outgroup. Non-reversible Markov models can also be used to compute the likelihood of a potential root position.

RESULTS

We present a software called RootDigger which uses a non-reversible Markov model to compute the most likely root location on a given tree and to infer a confidence value for each possible root placement. We find that RootDigger is successful at finding roots when compared to similar tools such as IQ-TREE and MAD, and will occasionally outperform them. Additionally, we find that the exhaustive mode of RootDigger is useful in quantifying and explaining uncertainty in rooting positions.

CONCLUSIONS

RootDigger can be used on an existing phylogeny to find a root, or to asses the uncertainty of the root placement. RootDigger is available under the MIT licence at https://www.github.com/computations/root_digger .

Optimizing the widely used nuclear protein-coding gene primers in beetle phylogenies and their application in the genus Sasajiscymnus Vandenberg (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae)

Advances in genomic biology and the increasing availability of genomic resources allow developing hundreds of nuclear protein-coding (NPC) markers, which can be used in phylogenetic research. However, for low taxonomic levels, it may be more practical to select a handful of suitable molecular loci for phylogenetic inference. Unfortunately, the presence of degenerate primers of NPC markers can be a major impediment, as the amplification success rate is low and they tend to amplify nontargeted regions. In this study, we optimized five NPC fragments widely used in beetle phylogenetics (i.e., two parts of carbamoyl-phosphate synthetase: CADXM and CADMC, Topoisomerase, Wingless and Pepck) by reducing the degenerate site of primers and the length of target genes slightly. These five NPC fragments and 6 other molecular loci were amplified to test the monophyly of the coccinellid genus Sasajiscymnus Vandenberg. The analysis of our molecular data set clearly supported the genus Sasajiscymnus may be monophyletic but confirmation with an extended sampling is required. A fossil-calibrated chronogram was generated by BEAST, indicating an origin of the genus at the end of the Cretaceous (77.87 Myr). Furthermore, a phylogenetic informativeness profile was generated to compare the phylogenetic properties of each gene more explicitly. The results showed that COI provides the strongest phylogenetic signal among all the genes, but Pepck, Topoisomerase, CADXM and CADMC are also relatively informative. Our results provide insight into the evolution of the genus Sasajiscymnus, and also enrich the molecular data resources for further study.

Counterbalancing the time-dependent effect on the human mitochondrial DNA molecular clock

BACKGROUND

The molecular clock is an important genetic tool for estimating evolutionary timescales. However, the detection of a time-dependent effect on substitution rate estimates complicates its application. It has been suggested that demographic processes could be the main cause of this confounding effect. In the present study, I propose a new algorithm for estimating the coalescent age of phylogenetically related sequences, taking into account the observed time-dependent effect on the molecular rate detected by others.

RESULTS

By applying this method to real human mitochondrial DNA trees with shallow and deep topologies, I obtained significantly older molecular ages for the main events of human evolution than were previously estimated. These ages are in close agreement with the most recent archaeological and paleontological records favoring the emergence of early anatomically modern humans in Africa 315 ± 34 thousand years ago (kya) and the presence of recent modern humans outside of Africa as early as 174 ± 48 thousand years ago. Furthermore, during the implementation process, I demonstrated that in a population with fluctuating sizes, the probability of fixation of a new neutral mutant depends on the effective population size, which is in better accordance with the fact that under the neutral theory of molecular evolution, the fate of a molecular mutation is mainly determined by random drift.

CONCLUSIONS

I suggest that the demographic history of populations has a more decisive effect than purifying selection and/or mutational saturation on the time-dependent effect observed for the substitution rate, and I propose a new method that corrects for this effect.

Deep mitochondrial DNA phylogeographic divergence in the threatened aoudad Ammotragus lervia (Bovidae, Caprini)

The aoudad or Barbary sheep (Ammotragus lervia) is a threatened ungulate emblematic of North Africa, whose population structure and subspecific taxonomy have not been examined genetically. This knowledge is essential and urgently needed to inform ongoing conservation and management efforts. We analysed the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene and four nuclear genes (casein kappa, spectrin beta nonerythrocytic 1, thyroglobulin, thyrotropin subunit beta) for the first phylogeographic survey of the aoudad, and uncovered a deep Mediterranean-Saharan mitochondrial split separating two highly distinct evolutionary lineages. Their level of divergence is greater than or comparable to those observed between several pairs of congeneric species of different caprine genera. The split was estimated to have occurred in the Early Pleistocene, about 1.3 million years ago. None of the four nuclear genes surveyed, chosen because they have been used in phylogeographic and species-level phylogenetic studies of bovids, allowed us to detect, likely due to their slow evolutionary rate, the substantial and geographically coherent subdivision revealed by mitochondrial DNA. This study is evidence and testament to the ability of mitochondrial DNA, probably unrivalled by any other single-locus marker, as an exploratory tool for investigating population genealogy and history and identifying potential evolutionarily significant units for conservation in animals.

Battistuzzi F, Kumar S. A Machine Learning Method for Detecting Autocorrelation of Evolutionary Rates in Large Phylogenies

New species arise from pre-existing species and inherit similar genomes and environments. This predicts greater similarity of the tempo of molecular evolution between direct ancestors and descendants, resulting in autocorrelation of evolutionary rates in the tree of life. Surprisingly, molecular sequence data have not confirmed this expectation, possibly because available methods lack the power to detect autocorrelated rates. Here, we present a machine learning method, CorrTest, to detect the presence of rate autocorrelation in large phylogenies. CorrTest is computationally efficient and performs better than the available state-of-the-art method. Application of CorrTest reveals extensive rate autocorrelation in DNA and amino acid sequence evolution of mammals, birds, insects, metazoans, plants, fungi, parasitic protozoans, and prokaryotes. Therefore, rate autocorrelation is a common phenomenon throughout the tree of life. These findings suggest concordance between molecular and nonmolecular evolutionary patterns, and they will foster unbiased and precise dating of the tree of life.

The Estimated Pacemaker for Great Apes Supports the Hominoid Slowdown Hypothesis

The recent surge of genomic data has prompted the investigation of substitution rate variation across the genome, as well as among lineages. Evolutionary trees inferred from distinct genomic regions may display branch lengths that differ between loci by simple proportionality constants, indicating that rate variation follows a pacemaker model, which may be attributed to lineage effects. Analyses of genes from diverse biological clades produced contrasting results, supporting either this model or alternative scenarios where multiple pacemakers exist. So far, an evaluation of the pacemaker hypothesis for all great apes has never been carried out. In this work, we tested whether the evolutionary rates of hominids conform to pacemakers, which were inferred accounting for gene tree/species tree discordance. For higher precision, substitution rates in branches were estimated with a calibration-free approach, the relative rate framework. A predominant evolutionary trend in great apes was evidenced by the recovery of a large pacemaker, encompassing most hominid genomic regions. In addition, the majority of genes followed a pace of evolution that was closely related to the strict molecular clock. However, slight rate decreases were recovered in the internal branches leading to humans, corroborating the hominoid slowdown hypothesis. Our findings suggest that in great apes, life history traits were the major drivers of substitution rate variation across the genome.

Mode and Rate of Evolution of Haemosporidian Mitochondrial Genomes: Timing the Radiation of Avian Parasites

Haemosporidians are a diverse group of vector-borne parasitic protozoa that includes the agents of human malaria; however, most of the described species are found in birds and reptiles. Although our understanding of these parasites’ diversity has expanded by analyses of their mitochondrial genes, there is limited information on these genes’ evolutionary rates. Here, 114 mitochondrial genomes (mtDNA) were studied from species belonging to four genera: Leucocytozoon, Haemoproteus, Hepatocystis, and Plasmodium. Contrary to previous assertions, the mtDNA is phylogenetically informative. The inferred phylogeny showed that, like the genus Plasmodium, the Leucocytozoon and Haemoproteus genera are not monophyletic groups. Although sensitive to the assumptions of the molecular dating method used, the estimated times indicate that the diversification of the avian haemosporidian subgenera/genera took place after the Cretaceous–Paleogene boundary following the radiation of modern birds. Furthermore, parasite clade differences in mtDNA substitution rates and strength of negative selection were detected. These differences may affect the biological interpretation of mtDNA gene lineages used as a proxy to species in ecological and parasitological investigations. Given that the mitochondria are critically important in the parasite life cycle stages that take place in the vector and that the transmission of parasites belonging to particular clades has been linked to specific insect families/subfamilies, this study suggests that differences in vectors have affected the mode of evolution of haemosporidian mtDNA genes. The observed patterns also suggest that the radiation of haemosporidian parasites may be the result of community-level evolutionary processes between their vertebrate and invertebrate hosts.

Mitogenome Sequencing in the Genus Camelus Reveals Evidence for Purifying Selection and Long-term Divergence between Wild and Domestic Bactrian Camels

The genus Camelus is an interesting model to study adaptive evolution in the mitochondrial genome, as the three extant Old World camel species inhabit hot and low-altitude as well as cold and high-altitude deserts. We sequenced 24 camel mitogenomes and combined them with three previously published sequences to study the role of natural selection under different environmental pressure, and to advance our understanding of the evolutionary history of the genus Camelus. We confirmed the heterogeneity of divergence across different components of the electron transport system. Lineage-specific analysis of mitochondrial protein evolution revealed a significant effect of purifying selection in the concatenated protein-coding genes in domestic Bactrian camels. The estimated dN/dS < 1 in the concatenated protein-coding genes suggested purifying selection as driving force for shaping mitogenome diversity in camels. Additional analyses of the functional divergence in amino acid changes between species-specific lineages indicated fixed substitutions in various genes, with radical effects on the physicochemical properties of the protein products. The evolutionary time estimates revealed a divergence between domestic and wild Bactrian camels around 1.1 [0.58-1.8] million years ago (mya). This has major implications for the conservation and management of the critically endangered wild species, Camelus ferus.

Molecular clocks and the early evolution of metazoan nervous systems

The timing of early animal evolution remains poorly resolved, yet remains critical for understanding nervous system evolution. Methods for estimating divergence times from sequence data have improved considerably, providing a more refined understanding of key divergences. The best molecular estimates point to the origin of metazoans and bilaterians tens to hundreds of millions of years earlier than their first appearances in the fossil record. Both the molecular and fossil records are compatible, however, with the possibility of tiny, unskeletonized, low energy budget animals during the Proterozoic that had planktonic, benthic, or meiofaunal lifestyles. Such animals would likely have had relatively simple nervous systems equipped primarily to detect food, avoid inhospitable environments and locate mates. The appearance of the first macropredators during the Cambrian would have changed the selective landscape dramatically, likely driving the evolution of complex sense organs, sophisticated sensory processing systems, and diverse effector systems involved in capturing prey and avoiding predation.

Advances in Time Estimation Methods for Molecular Data

Molecular dating has become central to placing a temporal dimension on the tree of life. Methods for estimating divergence times have been developed for over 50 years, beginning with the proposal of molecular clock in 1962. We categorize the chronological development of these methods into four generations based on the timing of their origin. In the first generation approaches (1960s-1980s), a strict molecular clock was assumed to date divergences. In the second generation approaches (1990s), the equality of evolutionary rates between species was first tested and then a strict molecular clock applied to estimate divergence times. The third generation approaches (since ∼2000) account for differences in evolutionary rates across the tree by using a statistical model, obviating the need to assume a clock or to test the equality of evolutionary rates among species. Bayesian methods in the third generation require a specific or uniform prior on the speciation-process and enable the inclusion of uncertainty in clock calibrations. The fourth generation approaches (since 2012) allow rates to vary from branch to branch, but do not need prior selection of a statistical model to describe the rate variation or the specification of speciation model. With high accuracy, comparable to Bayesian approaches, and speeds that are orders of magnitude faster, fourth generation methods are able to produce reliable timetrees of thousands of species using genome scale data. We found that early time estimates from second generation studies are similar to those of third and fourth generation studies, indicating that methodological advances have not fundamentally altered the timetree of life, but rather have facilitated time estimation by enabling the inclusion of more species. Nonetheless, we feel an urgent need for testing the accuracy and precision of third and fourth generation methods, including their robustness to misspecification of priors in the analysis of large phylogenies and data sets.

Inflation of Molecular Clock Rates and Dates: Molecular Phylogenetics, Biogeography, and Diversification of a Global Cicada Radiation from Australasia (Hemiptera: Cicadidae: Cicadettini)

Dated phylogenetic trees are important for studying mechanisms of diversification, and molecular clocks are important tools for studies of organisms lacking good fossil records. However, studies have begun to identify problems in molecular clock dates caused by uncertainty of the modeled molecular substitution process. Here we explore Bayesian relaxed-clock molecular dating while studying the biogeography of ca. 200 species from the global cicada tribe Cicadettini. Because the available fossils are few and uninformative, we calibrate our trees in part with a cytochrome oxidase I (COI) clock prior encompassing a range of literature estimates for arthropods. We show that tribe-level analyses calibrated solely with the COI clock recover extremely old dates that conflict with published estimates for two well-studied New Zealand subclades within Cicadettini. Additional subclade analyses suggest that COI relaxed-clock rates and maximum-likelihood branch lengths become inflated relative to EF-1[Formula: see text] intron and exon rates and branch lengths as clade age increases. We present corrected estimates derived from: (i) an extrapolated EF-1[Formula: see text] exon clock derived from COI-calibrated analysis within the largest New Zealand subclade; (ii) post hoc scaling of the tribe-level chronogram using results from subclade analyses; and (iii) exploitation of a geological calibration point associated with New Caledonia. We caution that considerable uncertainty is generated due to dependence of substitution estimates on both the taxon sample and the choice of model, including gamma category number and the choice of empirical versus estimated base frequencies. Our results suggest that diversification of the tribe Cicadettini commenced in the early- to mid-Cenozoic and continued with the development of open, arid habitats in Australia and worldwide. We find that Cicadettini is a rare example of a global terrestrial animal group with an Australasian origin, with all non-Australasian genera belonging to two distal clades. Within Australia, we show that Cicadettini is more widely distributed than any other cicada tribe, diverse in temperate, arid and monsoonal habitats, and nearly absent from rainforests. We comment on the taxonomic implications of our findings for thirteen cicada genera.

Fast Dating Using Least-Squares Criteria and Algorithms

Phylogenies provide a useful way to understand the evolutionary history of genetic samples, and data sets with more than a thousand taxa are becoming increasingly common, notably with viruses (e.g., human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)). Dating ancestral events is one of the first, essential goals with such data. However, current sophisticated probabilistic approaches struggle to handle data sets of this size. Here, we present very fast dating algorithms, based on a Gaussian model closely related to the Langley–Fitch molecular-clock model. We show that this model is robust to uncorrelated violations of the molecular clock. Our algorithms apply to serial data, where the tips of the tree have been sampled through times. They estimate the substitution rate and the dates of all ancestral nodes. When the input tree is unrooted, they can provide an estimate for the root position, thus representing a new, practical alternative to the standard rooting methods (e.g., midpoint). Our algorithms exploit the tree (recursive) structure of the problem at hand, and the close relationships between least-squares and linear algebra. We distinguish between an unconstrained setting and the case where the temporal precedence constraint (i.e., an ancestral node must be older that its daughter nodes) is accounted for. With rooted trees, the former is solved using linear algebra in linear computing time (i.e., proportional to the number of taxa), while the resolution of the latter, constrained setting, is based on an active-set method that runs in nearly linear time. With unrooted trees the computing time becomes (nearly) quadratic (i.e., proportional to the square of the number of taxa). In all cases, very large input trees (>10,000 taxa) can easily be processed and transformed into time-scaled trees. We compare these algorithms to standard methods (root-to-tip, r8s version of Langley–Fitch method, and BEAST). Using simulated data, we show that their estimation accuracy is similar to that of the most sophisticated methods, while their computing time is much faster. We apply these algorithms on a large data set comprising 1194 strains of Influenza virus from the pdm09 H1N1 Human pandemic. Again the results show that these algorithms provide a very fast alternative with results similar to those of other computer programs. These algorithms are implemented in the LSD software (least-squares dating), which can be downloaded from http://www.atgc-montpellier.fr/LSD/, along with all our data sets and detailed results. An Online Appendix, providing additional algorithm descriptions, tables, and figures can be found in the Supplementary Material available on Dryad at http://dx.doi.org/10.5061/dryad.968t3.

Potential for bias and low precision in molecular divergence time estimation of the Canopy of Life: an example from aquatic bird families

Uncertainty in divergence time estimation is frequently studied from many angles but rarely from the perspective of phylogenetic node age. If appropriate molecular models and fossil priors are used, a multi-locus, partitioned analysis is expected to equally minimize error in accuracy and precision across all nodes of a given phylogeny. In contrast, if available models fail to completely account for rate heterogeneity, substitution saturation and incompleteness of the fossil record, uncertainty in divergence time estimation may increase with node age. While many studies have stressed this concern with regard to deep nodes in the Tree of Life, the inference that molecular divergence time estimation of shallow nodes is less sensitive to erroneous model choice has not been tested explicitly in a Bayesian framework. Because of available divergence time estimation methods that permit fossil priors across any phylogenetic node and the present increase in efficient, cheap collection of species-level genomic data, insight is needed into the performance of divergence time estimation of shallow (<10 MY) nodes. Here, we performed multiple sensitivity analyses in a multi-locus data set of aquatic birds with six fossil constraints. Comparison across divergence time analyses that varied taxon and locus sampling, number and position of fossil constraint and shape of prior distribution showed various insights. Deviation from node ages obtained from a reference analysis was generally highest for the shallowest nodes but determined more by temporal placement than number of fossil constraints. Calibration with only the shallowest nodes significantly underestimated the aquatic bird fossil record, indicating the presence of saturation. Although joint calibration with all six priors yielded ages most consistent with the fossil record, ages of shallow nodes were overestimated. This bias was found in both mtDNA and nDNA regions. Thus, divergence time estimation of shallow nodes may suffer from bias and low precision, even when appropriate fossil priors and best available substitution models are chosen. Much care must be taken to address the possible ramifications of substitution saturation across the entire Tree of Life.

Do missing data influence the accuracy of divergence-time estimation with BEAST?

Time-calibrated phylogenies have become essential to evolutionary biology. A recurrent and unresolved question for dating analyses is whether genes with missing data cells should be included or excluded. This issue is particularly unclear for the most widely used dating method, the uncorrelated lognormal approach implemented in BEAST. Here, we test the robustness of this method to missing data. We compare divergence-time estimates from a nearly complete dataset (20 nuclear genes for 32 species of squamate reptiles) to those from subsampled matrices, including those with 5 or 2 complete loci only and those with 5 or 8 incomplete loci added. In general, missing data had little impact on estimated dates (mean error of ∼5Myr per node or less, given an overall age of ∼220Myr in squamates), even when 80% of sampled genes had 75% missing data. Mean errors were somewhat higher when all genes were 75% incomplete (∼17Myr). However, errors increased dramatically when only 2 of 9 fossil calibration points were included (∼40Myr), regardless of missing data. Overall, missing data (and even numbers of genes sampled) may have only minor impacts on the accuracy of divergence dating with BEAST, relative to the dramatic effects of fossil calibrations.

Simulating and detecting autocorrelation of molecular evolutionary rates among lineages

Evolutionary timescales can be estimated from genetic data using phylogenetic methods based on the molecular clock. To account for molecular rate variation among lineages, a number of relaxed-clock models have been developed. Some of these models assume that rates vary among lineages in an autocorrelated manner, so that closely related species share similar rates. In contrast, uncorrelated relaxed clocks allow all of the branch-specific rates to be drawn from a single distribution, without assuming any correlation between rates along neighbouring branches. There is uncertainty about which of these two classes of relaxed-clock models are more appropriate for biological data. We present an R package, NELSI, that allows the evolution of DNA sequences to be simulated according to a range of clock models. Using data generated by this package, we assessed the ability of two Bayesian phylogenetic methods to distinguish among different relaxed-clock models and to quantify rate variation among lineages. The results of our analyses show that rate autocorrelation is typically difficult to detect, even when there is complete taxon sampling. This provides a potential explanation for past failures to detect rate autocorrelation in a range of data sets.

The changing face of the molecular evolutionary clock

The molecular clock has played an important role in biological research, both as a description of the evolutionary process and as a tool for inferring evolutionary timescales. Genomic data have provided valuable insights into the molecular clock, allowing the patterns and causes of evolutionary rate variation to be characterized in increasing detail. I explain how genome sequences offer exciting opportunities for estimating the timescale of the Tree of Life. I describe the different approaches that have been used to deal with the computational and statistical challenges encountered in molecular clock analyses of genomic data. Finally, I offer a perspective on the future of molecular clocks, highlighting some of the key limitations and the most promising research directions.

Prospects for building large timetrees using molecular data with incomplete gene coverage among species

Scientists are assembling sequence data sets from increasing numbers of species and genes to build comprehensive timetrees. However, data are often unavailable for some species and gene combinations, and the proportion of missing data is often large for data sets containing many genes and species. Surprisingly, there has not been a systematic analysis of the effect of the degree of sparseness of the species-gene matrix on the accuracy of divergence time estimates. Here, we present results from computer simulations and empirical data analyses to quantify the impact of missing gene data on divergence time estimation in large phylogenies. We found that estimates of divergence times were robust even when sequences from a majority of genes for most of the species were absent. From the analysis of such extremely sparse data sets, we found that the most egregious errors occurred for nodes in the tree that had no common genes for any pair of species in the immediate descendant clades of the node in question. These problematic nodes can be easily detected prior to computational analyses based only on the input sequence alignment and the tree topology. We conclude that it is best to use larger alignments, because adding both genes and species to the alignment augments the number of genes available for estimating divergence events deep in the tree and improves their time estimates.

In the wake of invasion: tracing the historical biogeography of the South American cricetid radiation (Rodentia, Sigmodontinae)

The Great American Biotic Interchange (GABI) was greatly influenced by the completion of the Isthmus of Panama and impacted the composition of modern faunal assemblages in the Americas. However, the contribution of preceding events has been comparatively less explored, even though early immigrants in the fossil records are evidence for waif dispersals. The cricetid rodents of the subfamily Sigmodontinae are a classic example of a species-rich South American radiation resulting from an early episode of North American invasion. Here, we provide a temporal and spatial framework to address key aspects of the historical biogeography and diversification of this diverse mammal group by using mitochondrial and nuclear DNA datasets coupled with methods of divergence time estimation, ancestral area reconstruction and comparative phylogenetics. Relaxed-clock time estimates indicate that divergence of the Sigmodontinae began in the middle-late Miocene (ca. 12-9 Ma). Dispersal-vicariance analyses point to the arrival of a single lineage of northern invaders with a widespread ancestral distribution and imply that the initial differentiation between Central and South America gave rise to the most basal groups within the subfamily. These two major clades diversified in the late Miocene followed by the radiation of main tribes until the early Pliocene. Within the Oryzomyalia, tribes diverged initially in eastern South America whereas multiple dispersals into the Andes promoted further diversification of the majority of modern genera. A comparatively uniform background tempo of diversification explains the species richness of sigmodontines across most nodes, except for two akodontine genera with recent increases in diversification rates. The bridging of the Central American seaway and episodes of low sea levels likely facilitated the invasion of South America long before the onset of the post-Isthmian phase of the GABI.

A multilocus timescale for oomycete evolution estimated under three distinct molecular clock models

BACKGROUND

Molecular clock methodologies allow for the estimation of divergence times across a variety of organisms; this can be particularly useful for groups lacking robust fossil histories, such as microbial eukaryotes with few distinguishing morphological traits. Here we have used a Bayesian molecular clock method under three distinct clock models to estimate divergence times within oomycetes, a group of fungal-like eukaryotes that are ubiquitous in the environment and include a number of devastating pathogenic species. The earliest fossil evidence for oomycetes comes from the Lower Devonian (~400 Ma), however the taxonomic affinities of these fossils are unclear.

RESULTS

Complete genome sequences were used to identify orthologous proteins among oomycetes, diatoms, and a brown alga, with a focus on conserved regulators of gene expression such as DNA and histone modifiers and transcription factors. Our molecular clock estimates place the origin of oomycetes by at least the mid-Paleozoic (~430-400 Ma), with the divergence between two major lineages, the peronosporaleans and saprolegnialeans, in the early Mesozoic (~225-190 Ma). Divergence times estimated under the three clock models were similar, although only the strict and random local clock models produced reliable estimates for most parameters.

CONCLUSIONS

Our molecular timescale suggests that modern pathogenic oomycetes diverged well after the origin of their respective hosts, indicating that environmental conditions or perhaps horizontal gene transfer events, rather than host availability, may have driven lineage diversification. Our findings also suggest that the last common ancestor of oomycetes possessed a full complement of eukaryotic regulatory proteins, including those involved in histone modification, RNA interference, and tRNA and rRNA methylation; interestingly no match to canonical DNA methyltransferases could be identified in the oomycete genomes studied here.

Assignment of Calibration Information to Deeper Phylogenetic Nodes is More Effective in Obtaining Precise and Accurate Divergence Time Estimates

Divergence time estimation has become an essential tool for understanding macroevolutionary events. Molecular dating aims to obtain reliable inferences, which, within a statistical framework, means jointly increasing the accuracy and precision of estimates. Bayesian dating methods exhibit the propriety of a linear relationship between uncertainty and estimated divergence dates. This relationship occurs even if the number of sites approaches infinity and places a limit on the maximum precision of node ages. However, how the placement of calibration information may affect the precision of divergence time estimates remains an open question. In this study, relying on simulated and empirical data, we investigated how the location of calibration within a phylogeny affects the accuracy and precision of time estimates. We found that calibration priors set at median and deep phylogenetic nodes were associated with higher precision values compared to analyses involving calibration at the shallowest node. The results were independent of the tree symmetry. An empirical mammalian dataset produced results that were consistent with those generated by the simulated sequences. Assigning time information to the deeper nodes of a tree is crucial to guarantee the accuracy and precision of divergence times. This finding highlights the importance of the appropriate choice of outgroups in molecular dating.

The emergence of lobsters: phylogenetic relationships, morphological evolution and divergence time comparisons of an ancient group (decapoda: achelata, astacidea, glypheidea, polychelida)

Lobsters are a ubiquitous and economically important group of decapod crustaceans that include the infraorders Polychelida, Glypheidea, Astacidea and Achelata. They include familiar forms such as the spiny, slipper, clawed lobsters and crayfish and unfamiliar forms such as the deep-sea and "living fossil" species. The high degree of morphological diversity among these infraorders has led to a dynamic classification and conflicting hypotheses of evolutionary relationships. In this study, we estimated phylogenetic relationships among the major groups of all lobster families and 94% of the genera using six genes (mitochondrial and nuclear) and 195 morphological characters across 173 species of lobsters for the most comprehensive sampling to date. Lobsters were recovered as a non-monophyletic assemblage in the combined (molecular + morphology) analysis. All families were monophyletic, with the exception of Cambaridae, and 7 of 79 genera were recovered as poly- or paraphyletic. A rich fossil history coupled with dense taxon coverage allowed us to estimate and compare divergence times and origins of major lineages using two drastically different approaches. Age priors were constructed and/or included based on fossil age information or fossil discovery, age, and extant species count data. Results from the two approaches were largely congruent across deep to shallow taxonomic divergences across major lineages. The origin of the first lobster-like decapod (Polychelida) was estimated in the Devonian (∼409-372 Ma) with all infraorders present in the Carboniferous (∼353-318 Ma). Fossil calibration subsampling studies examined the influence of sampling density (number of fossils) and placement (deep, middle, and shallow) on divergence time estimates. Results from our study suggest including at least 1 fossil per 10 operational taxonomic units (OTUs) in divergence dating analyses. [Dating; decapods; divergence; lobsters; molecular; morphology; phylogenetics.].

Critiquing blind dating: the dangers of over-confident date estimates in comparative genomics

Phylogenomic advances provide more rigorous estimates for the timing of evolutionary divergences than previously available (e.g., Bayesian relaxed-clock estimates with soft fossil constraints). However, because many family-level clades and higher, as well as model species within those clades, have not been included in phylogenomic studies, the literature presents temporal estimates likely harboring substantial errors. Blindly using such dates can substantially retard scientific advancement. We suggest a way forward by conducting analyses that minimize prior assumptions and use large datasets, and demonstrate how using such a phylogenomic approach can lead to significantly more parsimonious conclusions without a good fossil record. We suggest that such an approach calls for research into the biological causes of conflict between molecular and fossil signatures.

Molecular timetrees reveal a Cambrian colonization of land and a new scenario for ecdysozoan evolution

Ecdysozoans have been key components of ecosystems since the early Cambrian, when trilobites and soft-bodied Burgess Shale-type ecdysozoans dominated marine animal communities. Even today, the most abundant animals on Earth are either nematode worms or plankton-forming crustaceans, whereas the most diverse are the insects. Throughout geological time, several ecdysozoan lineages independently colonized land, shaping both marine and terrestrial ecosystems and providing an adequate environment for successive animal terrestrialization. The timing of these events is largely uncertain and has been investigated only partially using molecular data. Here we present a timescale of ecdysozoan evolution based on multiple molecular data sets, the most complete set of fossil calibrations to date, and a thorough series of validation analyses. Results converge on an Ediacaran origin of all major ecdysozoan lineages (∼587-543 million years ago [mya]), followed by a fast Cambrian radiation of the pancrustaceans (∼539-511 mya), a Cambro-Ordovician colonization of land of different arthropod lineages (∼510-471 mya), and a relatively recent radiation of extant nematodes, onychophorans, and tardigrades (∼442 mya). Arthropods colonized land nearly synchronously with land plants. Further diversification within flying insects, nematodes and onychophorans might be related to the evolution of vascular plants and forests.

A practical approach to reconstruct evolutionary history of animal sialyltransferases and gain insights into the sequence-function relationships of Golgi-glycosyltransferases

In higher vertebrates, sialyltransferases catalyze the transfer of sialic acid residues, either Neu5Ac or Neu5Gc or KDN from an activated sugar donor, which is mainly CMP-Neu5Ac in human tissues, to the hydroxyl group of another saccharide acceptor. In the human genome, 20 unique genes have been described that encode enzymes with remarkable specificity with regards to their acceptor substrates and the glycosidic linkage formed. A systematic search of sialyltransferase-related sequences in genome and EST databases and the use of bioinformatic tools enabled us to investigate the evolutionary history of animal sialyltransferases and propose original models of divergent evolution of animal sialyltransferases. In this chapter, we extend our phylogenetic studies to the comparative analysis of the environment of sialyltransferase gene loci (synteny and paralogy studies), the variations of tissue expression of these genes and the analysis of amino-acid position evolution after gene duplications, in order to assess their sequence-function relationships and the molecular basis underlying their functional divergence.

Estimating divergence times in large molecular phylogenies

Molecular dating of species divergences has become an important means to add a temporal dimension to the Tree of Life. Increasingly larger datasets encompassing greater taxonomic diversity are becoming available to generate molecular timetrees by using sophisticated methods that model rate variation among lineages. However, the practical application of these methods is challenging because of the exorbitant calculation times required by current methods for contemporary data sizes, the difficulty in correctly modeling the rate heterogeneity in highly diverse taxonomic groups, and the lack of reliable clock calibrations and their uncertainty distributions for most groups of species. Here, we present a method that estimates relative times of divergences for all branching points (nodes) in very large phylogenetic trees without assuming a specific model for lineage rate variation or specifying any clock calibrations. The method (RelTime) performed better than existing methods when applied to very large computer simulated datasets where evolutionary rates were varied extensively among lineages by following autocorrelated and uncorrelated models. On average, RelTime completed calculations 1,000 times faster than the fastest Bayesian method, with even greater speed difference for larger number of sequences. This speed and accuracy will enable molecular dating analysis of very large datasets. Relative time estimates will be useful for determining the relative ordering and spacing of speciation events, identifying lineages with significantly slower or faster evolutionary rates, diagnosing the effect of selected calibrations on absolute divergence times, and estimating absolute times of divergence when highly reliable calibration points are available.

Estimating divergence dates and evaluating dating methods using phylogenomic and mitochondrial data in squamate reptiles

Recently, phylogenetics has expanded to routinely include estimation of clade ages in addition to their relationships. Various dating methods have been used, but their relative performance remains understudied. Here, we generate and assemble an extensive phylogenomic data set for squamate reptiles (lizards and snakes) and evaluate two widely used dating methods, penalized likelihood in r8s (r8s-PL) and Bayesian estimation with uncorrelated relaxed rates among lineages (BEAST). We obtained sequence data from 25 nuclear loci (∼500-1,000 bp per gene; 19,020bp total) for 64 squamate species and nine outgroup taxa, estimated the phylogeny, and estimated divergence dates using 14 fossil calibrations. We then evaluated how well each method approximated these dates using random subsets of the nuclear loci (2, 5, 10, 15, and 20; replicated 10 times each), and using ∼1 kb of the mitochondrial ND2 gene. We find that estimates from r8s-PL based on 2, 5, or 10 loci can differ considerably from those based on 25 loci (mean absolute value of differences between 2-locus and 25-locus estimates were 9.0 Myr). Estimates from BEAST are somewhat more consistent given limited sampling of loci (mean absolute value of differences between 2 and 25-locus estimates were 5.0 Myr). Most strikingly, age estimates using r8s-PL for ND2 were ∼68-82 Myr older (mean=73.1) than those using 25 nuclear loci with r8s-PL. These results show that dates from r8s-PL with a limited number of loci (and especially mitochondrial data) can differ considerably from estimates derived from a large number of nuclear loci, whereas estimates from BEAST derived from fewer nuclear loci or mitochondrial data alone can be surprisingly similar to those from many nuclear loci. However, estimates from BEAST using relatively few loci and mitochondrial data could still show substantial deviations from the full data set (>50 Myr), suggesting the benefits of sampling many nuclear loci. Finally, we found that confidence intervals on ages from BEAST were not significantly different when sampling 2 vs. 25 loci, suggesting that adding loci decreased errors but did not increase confidence in those estimates.

The influence of taxon sampling and tree shape on molecular dating: an empirical example from Mammalian mitochondrial genomes

Over the last decade, molecular dating methods have been among the most studied subjects in statistical phylogenetics. Although the evolutionary modelling of substitution rates and the handling of calibration information are the primary focus of species divergence time research, parameters that influence topological estimation, such as taxon sampling and tree shape, also have the potential to influence evolutionary age estimates. However, the impact of topological parameters on chronological estimates is rarely considered. In this study, we use mitochondrial genomes to evaluate the influence of tree shape and taxon sampling on the divergence times of selected nodes of the mammalian tree. Our results show that taxon sampling affects divergence time estimates; the credibility intervals for age estimates decrease as taxonomic sampling increases (i.e., estimates become more precise). The influence of taxonomic sampling was not observed on nodes that lay deep in the mammalian phylogeny, although the means of the posterior distributions tend to converge with increased taxon sampling, an effect that is independent of the location of the node. In the majority of cases, the effect of tree shape was negligible.

Impact of the partitioning scheme on divergence times inferred from Mammalian genomic data sets

Data partitioning has long been regarded as an important parameter for phylogenetic inference. The division of heterogeneous multigene data sets into partitions with similar substitution patterns is known to increase the performance of probabilistic phylogenetic methods. However, the effect of the partitioning scheme on divergence time estimates has generally been ignored. To investigate the impact of data partitioning on the estimation of divergence times, we have constructed two genomic data sets. The first one with 15 nuclear genes comprising 50,928 bp were selected from the OrthoMam database; the second set was composed of complete mitochondrial genomes. We studied two partitioning schemes: concatenated supermatrices and partitioned gene analysis. We have also measured the impact of taxonomic sampling on the estimates. After drawing divergence time inferences using the uncorrelated relaxed clock in BEAST, we have compared the age estimates between the partitioning schemes. Our results show that, in general, both schemes resulted in similar chronological estimates, however the concatenated data sets were more efficient than the partitioned ones in attaining suitable effective sample sizes.

Comparative nucleotide diversity across North American and European populus species

Nucleotide polymorphisms in two North American balsam poplars (Populus trichocarpa Torr. & Gray and P. balsamifera L.; section Tacamahaca), and one Eurasian aspen (P. tremula L.; section Populus) were compared using nine loci involved in defense, stress response, photoperiodism, freezing tolerance, and housekeeping. Nucleotide diversity varied among species and was highest for P. tremula (θ(w) = 0.005, π(T) = 0.007) as compared to P. balsamifera (θ(w) = 0.004, π(T) = 0.005) or P. trichocarpa (θ(w) = 0.002, π(T) = 0.003). Across species, the defense and the stress response loci accounted for the majority of the observed level of nucleotide diversity. In general, the studied loci did not deviate from neutral expectation either at the individual locus (non-significant normalized Fay and Wu's H) or at the multi-locus level (non-significant HKA test). Using molecular clock analysis, section Tacamahaca probably shared a common ancestor with section Populus approximately 4.5 million year ago. Divergence between the two closely related balsam poplars was about 0.8 million years ago, a pattern consistent with an isolation-with-migration (IM) model. As expected, P. tremula showed a five-fold higher substitution rate (2 × 10(-8) substitution/site/year) compared to the North American species (0.4 × 10(-8) substitution/site/year), probably reflecting its complex demographic history. Linkage disequilibrium (LD) varied among species with a more rapid decay in the North American species (<400 bp) in comparison to P. tremula (≫400 bp). The similarities in nucleotide diversity pattern and LD decay of the two balsam poplar species likely reflects the recent time of their divergence.

Vertebrate time-tree elucidates the biogeographic pattern of a major biotic change around the K-T boundary in Madagascar

The geographic and temporal origins of Madagascar's biota have long been in the center of debate. We reconstructed a time-tree including nearly all native nonflying and nonmarine vertebrate clades present on the island, from DNA sequences of two single-copy protein-coding nuclear genes (BDNF and RAG1) and a set of congruent time constraints. Reconstructions calculated with autocorrelated or independent substitution rates over clades agreed in placing the origins of the 31 included clades in Cretaceous to Cenozoic times. The two clades with sister groups in South America were the oldest, followed by those of a putative Asian ancestry that were significantly older than the prevalent clades of African ancestry. No colonizations from Asia occurred after the Eocene, suggesting that dispersal and vicariance of Asian/Indian groups were favored over a comparatively short period during, and shortly after, the separation of India and Madagascar. Species richness of clades correlates with their age but those clades that have a large proportion of species diversity in rainforests are significantly more species-rich. This finding suggests an underlying pattern of continuous speciation through time in Madagascar's vertebrates, with accelerated episodes of adaptive diversification in those clades that succeeded radiating into the rainforests.

Winding up the molecular clock in the genus Carabus (Coleoptera: Carabidae): assessment of methodological decisions on rate and node age estimation

BACKGROUND

Rates of molecular evolution are known to vary across taxa and among genes, and this requires rate calibration for each specific dataset based on external information. Calibration is sensitive to evolutionary model parameters, partitioning schemes and clock model. However, the way in which these and other analytical aspects affect both the rates and the resulting clade ages from calibrated phylogenies are not yet well understood. To investigate these aspects we have conducted calibration analyses for the genus Carabus (Coleoptera, Carabidae) on five mitochondrial and four nuclear DNA fragments with 7888 nt total length, testing different clock models and partitioning schemes to select the most suitable using Bayes Factors comparisons.

RESULTS

We used these data to investigate the effect of ambiguous character and outgroup inclusion on both the rates of molecular evolution and the TMRCA of Carabus. We found considerable variation in rates of molecular evolution depending on the fragment studied (ranging from 5.02% in cob to 0.26% divergence/My in LSU-A), but also on analytical conditions. Alternative choices of clock model, partitioning scheme, treatment of ambiguous characters, and outgroup inclusion resulted in rate increments ranging from 28% (HUWE1) to 1000% (LSU-B and ITS2) and increments in the TMRCA of Carabus ranging from 8.4% (cox1-A) to 540% (ITS2). Results support an origin of the genus Carabus during the Oligocene in the Eurasian continent followed by a Miocene differentiation that originated all main extant lineages.

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of several genes is proposed as the best strategy to minimise both the idiosyncratic behaviors of individual markers and the effect of analytical aspects in rate and age estimations. Our results highlight the importance of estimating rates of molecular evolution for each specific dataset, selecting for optimal clock and partitioning models as well as other methodological issues potentially affecting rate estimation.

Paleogenetic analyses reveal unsuspected phylogenetic affinities between mice and the extinct Malpaisomys insularis, an endemic rodent of the Canaries

Background

The lava mouse, Malpaisomys insularis, was endemic to the Eastern Canary islands and became extinct at the beginning of the 14^th century when the Europeans reached the archipelago. Studies to determine Malpaisomys' phylogenetic affinities, based on morphological characters, remained inconclusive because morphological changes experienced by this insular rodent make phylogenetic investigations a real challenge. Over 20 years since its first description, Malpaisomys' phylogenetic position remains enigmatic.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In this study, we resolved this issue using molecular characters. Mitochondrial and nuclear markers were successfully amplified from subfossils of three lava mouse samples. Molecular phylogenetic reconstructions revealed, without any ambiguity, unsuspected relationships between Malpaisomys and extant mice (genus Mus, Murinae). Moreover, through molecular dating we estimated the origin of the Malpaisomys/mouse clade at 6.9 Ma, corresponding to the maximal age at which the archipelago was colonised by the Malpaisomys ancestor via natural rafting.

Conclusion/Significance

This study reconsiders the derived morphological characters of Malpaisomys in light of this unexpected molecular finding. To reconcile molecular and morphological data, we propose to consider Malpaisomys insularis as an insular lineage of mouse.

A timeline for terrestrialization: consequences for the carbon cycle in the Palaeozoic

The geochemical carbon cycle is strongly influenced by life on land, principally through the effects of carbon sequestration and the weathering of calcium and magnesium silicates in surface rocks and soils. Knowing the time of origin of land plants and animals and also of key organ systems (e.g. plant vasculature, roots, wood) is crucial to understand the development of the carbon cycle and its effects on other Earth systems. Here, we compare evidence from fossils with calibrated molecular phylogenetic trees (timetrees) of living plants and arthropods. We show that different perspectives conflict in terms of the relative timing of events, the organisms involved and the pattern of diversification of various groups. Focusing on the fossil record, we highlight a number of key biases that underpin some of these conflicts, the most pervasive and far-reaching being the extent and nature of major facies changes in the rock record. These effects probably mask an earlier origin of life on land than is evident from certain classes of fossil data. If correct, this would have major implications in understanding the carbon cycle during the Early Palaeozoic.