The role of China's terrestrial carbon sequestration 2010-2060 in offsetting energy-related CO2 emissions

Sustainable bioenergy contributes to cost-effective climate change mitigation in China

Bioenergy development is critical for achieving carbon neutrality. Biomass residues from agriculture, forest, and livestock manure provide substantial bioenergy resources in China, but their availability, climate, and economic impacts have not been evaluated systematically. Here we assess biomass sustainability, bioenergy potential, greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) reduction, and cost-effectiveness using an integrated data-modeling approach. Nationally, only 27% of biomass can be used for sustainable bioenergy production, but can contribute to significant climate change mitigation with optimized regional utilization. The annual GHG reduction can reach 1.0 Gt CO2e for bioenergy, or 1.4 Gt CO2e for bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), which is comparable to total terrestrial ecosystem carbon sinks in China. The abatement cost varies regionally but is lower than many other carbon removal technologies. Our findings reveal region-specific bioenergy pathways that contribute to carbon neutrality, and encourage future assessments to explore factors including technological advances and carbon markets.

Quantifying the Resilience of Coal Energy Supply in China Toward Carbon Neutrality

Facing the challenge of achieving the goal of carbon neutrality, China is decoupling the currently close dependence of its economy on coal use. The energy supply and demand decarbonization has substantial influence on the resilience of the coal supply. However, a general understanding of the precise impact of energy decarbonization on the resilience of the coal energy supply is still lacking. Here, from the perspective of network science, we propose a theoretical framework to explore the resilience of the coal market of China. We show that the processes of increasing the connectivity and the competition between the coal enterprises, which are widely believed to improve the resilience of the coal market, can undermine the sustainability of the coal supply. Moreover, our results reveal that the policy of closing small-sized coal mines may not only reduce the safety accidents in the coal production but also improve the resilience of the coal market network. Using our model, we also suggest a few practical policies for minimizing the systemic risk of the coal energy supply.

Changes in productivity partitioning induced by precipitation extremes increase inaccuracy of grassland carbon estimation

The fraction of net primary productivity (NPP) allocated to belowground organs (fBNPP) in grasslands is a critical parameter in global carbon cycle models; moreover, understanding the effect of precipitation changes on this parameter is vital to accurately estimating carbon sequestration in grassland ecosystems. However, how fBNPP responds to temporal precipitation changes along a gradient from extreme drought to extreme wetness, remains unclear, mainly due to the lack of long-term data of belowground net primary productivity (BNPP) and the fact that most precipitation experiments did not have a gradient from extreme drought to extreme wetness. Here, by conducting both a precipitation gradient experiment (100-500 mm) and a long-term observational study (34 years) in the Inner Mongolia grassland, we showed that fBNPP decreased linearly along the precipitation gradient from extreme drought to extreme wetness due to stronger responses in aboveground NPP to drought and wet conditions than those of BNPP. Our further meta-analysis in grasslands worldwide also indicated that fBNPP increased when precipitation decreased, and the vice versa. Such a consistent pattern of fBNPP response suggests that plants increase the belowground allocation with decreasing precipitation, while increase the aboveground allocation with increasing precipitation. Thus, the linearly decreasing response pattern in fBNPP should be incorporated into models that forecast carbon sequestration in grassland ecosystems; failure to do so will lead to underestimation of the carbon stock in drought years and overestimation of the carbon stock in wet years in grasslands.

Ensuring carbon neutrality via algae-based wastewater treatment systems: Progress and future perspectives

The emergence of algal biorefineries has garnered considerable attention to researchers owing to their potential to ensure carbon neutrality via mitigation of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Algae-derived biofuels, characterized by their carbon-neutral nature, stand poised to play a pivotal role in advancing sustainable development initiatives aimed at enhancing environmental and societal well-being. In this context, algae-based wastewater treatment systems are greatly appreciated for their efficacy in nutrient removal and simultaneous bioenergy generation. These systems leverage the growth of algae species on wastewater nutrients-including carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus-alongside carbon dioxide, thus facilitating a multifaceted approach to pollution remediation. This review seeks to delve into the realization of carbon neutrality through algae-mediated wastewater treatment approaches. Through a comprehensive analysis, this review scrutinizes the trajectory of algae-based wastewater treatment via bibliometric analysis. It subsequently examines the case studies and empirical insights pertaining to algae cultivation, treatment performance analysis, cost and life cycle analyses, and the implementation of optimization methodologies rooted in artificial intelligence and machine learning algorithms for algae-based wastewater treatment systems. By synthesizing these diverse perspectives, this study aims to offer valuable insights for the development of future engineering applications predicated on an in-depth understanding of carbon neutrality within the framework of circular economy paradigms.

Evaluation of Low-Cost CO2 Sensors Using Reference Instruments and Standard Gases for Indoor Use

CO2 monitoring is important for carbon emission evaluation. Low-cost and medium-precision sensors (LCSs) have become an exploratory direction for CO2 observation under complex emission conditions in cities. Here, we used a calibration method that improved the accuracy of SenseAir K30 CO2 sensors from ±30 ppm to 0.7-4.0 ppm for a CO2-monitoring instrument named the SENSE-IAP, which has been used in several cities, such as in Beijing, Jinan, Fuzhou, Hangzhou, and Wuhan, in China since 2017. We conducted monthly to yearly synchronous observations using the SENSE-IAP along with reference instruments (Picarro) and standard gas to evaluate the performance of the LCSs for indoor use with relatively stable environments. The results show that the precision and accuracy of the SENSE-IAP compared to the standard gases were rather good in relatively stable indoor environments, with the short-term (daily scale) biases ranging from -0.9 to 0.2 ppm, the root mean square errors (RMSE) ranging from 0.7 to 1.6 ppm, the long-term (monthly scale) bias ranging from -1.6 to 0.5 ppm, and the RMSE ranging from 1.3 to 3.2 ppm. The accuracy of the synchronous observations with Picarro was in the same magnitude, with an RMSE of 2.0-3.0 ppm. According to our evaluation, standard instruments or reliable standard gases can be used as a reference to improve the accuracy of the SENSE-IAP. If calibrated daily using standard gases, the bias of the SENSE-IAP can be maintained within 1.0 ppm. If the standard gases are hard to access frequently, we recommend a calibration frequency of at least three months to maintain an accuracy within 3 ppm.

Maximizing carbon sequestration potential in Chinese forests through optimal management

Forest carbon sequestration capacity in China remains uncertain due to underrepresented tree demographic dynamics and overlooked of harvest impacts. In this study, we employ a process-based biogeochemical model to make projections by using national forest inventories, covering approximately 415,000 permanent plots, revealing an expansion in biomass carbon stock by 13.6 ± 1.5 Pg C from 2020 to 2100, with additional sink through augmentation of wood product pool (0.6-2.0 Pg C) and spatiotemporal optimization of forest management (2.3 ± 0.03 Pg C). We find that statistical model might cause large bias in long-term projection due to underrepresentation or neglect of wood harvest and forest demographic changes. Remarkably, disregarding the repercussions of harvesting on forest age can result in a premature shift in the timing of the carbon sink peak by 1-3 decades. Our findings emphasize the pressing necessity for the swift implementation of optimal forest management strategies for carbon sequestration enhancement.

Effects of light quality on microalgae cultivation: bibliometric analysis, mini-review, and regulation approaches

The ever-increasing concern for energy shortages and greenhouse effect has triggered the development of sustainable green technologies. Microalgae have received more attention due to the characteristics of biofuel production and CO2 fixation. From the perspective of autotrophic growth, the optimization of light quality has the potential to promote biomass production and bio-component accumulation in microalgae at low cost. In this study, bibliometric analysis was used to describe the basic features, identify the hotspots, and predict future trends of the research related to the light quality on microalgae cultivation. In addition, a mini-review referring to regulation methods of light quality was provided to optimize the framework of research. Results demonstrated that China has the greatest interest in this area. The destination of most research was to obtain biofuels and high-value-added products. Both blue and red lights were identified as the crucial spectrums for microalgae cultivation. However, sunlight is the most affordable light resource, which could not be fully utilized by microalgae through the photosynthetic process. Hence, some regulation approaches (e.g., dyes, plasmonic scattering, and carbon-based quantum dots) are proposed to increase the proportion of beneficial spectrum for enhancement of photosynthetic efficiency. In summary, this review introduces state-of-the-art research and provides theoretical guidance for light quality optimization in microalgae cultivation to obtain more benefits.

Realization process of microalgal biorefinery: The optional approach toward carbon net-zero emission

Increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) emission has already become a dire threat to the human race and Earth's ecology. Microalgae are recommended to be engineered as CO2 fixers in biorefinery, which play crucial roles in responding climate change and accelerating the transition to a sustainable future. This review sorted through each segment of microalgal biorefinery to explore the potential for its practical implementation and commercialization, offering valuable insights into research trends and identifies challenges that needed to be addressed in the development process. Firstly, the known mechanisms of microalgal photosynthetic CO2 fixation and the approaches for strain improvement were summarized. The significance of process regulation for strengthening fixation efficiency and augmenting competitiveness was emphasized, with a specific focus on CO2 and light optimization strategies. Thereafter, the massive potential of microalgal refineries for various bioresource production was discussed in detail, and the integration with contaminant reclamation was mentioned for economic and ecological benefits. Subsequently, economic and environmental impacts of microalgal biorefinery were evaluated via life cycle assessment (LCA) and techno-economic analysis (TEA) to lit up commercial feasibility. Finally, the current obstacles and future perspectives were discussed objectively to offer an impartial reference for future researchers and investors.

China's current forest age structure will lead to weakened carbon sinks in the near future

Forests are chiefly responsible for the terrestrial carbon sink that greatly reduces the buildup of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere and alleviates climate change. Current predictions of terrestrial carbon sinks in the future have so far ignored the variation of forest carbon uptake with forest age. Here, we predict the role of China's current forest age in future carbon sink capacity by generating a high-resolution (30 m) forest age map in 2019 over China's landmass using satellite and forest inventory data and deriving forest growth curves using measurements of forest biomass and age in 3,121 plots. As China's forests currently have large proportions of young and middle-age stands, we project that China's forests will maintain high growth rates for about 15 years. However, as the forests grow older, their net primary productivity will decline by 5.0% ± 1.4% in 2050, 8.4% ± 1.6% in 2060, and 16.6% ± 2.8% in 2100, indicating weakened carbon sinks in the near future. The weakening of forest carbon sinks can be potentially mitigated by optimizing forest age structure through selective logging and implementing new or improved afforestation. This finding is important not only for the global carbon cycle and climate projections but also for developing forest management strategies to enhance land sinks by alleviating the age effect.

The effect of thinning intensity on the soil carbon pool mediated by soil microbial communities and necromass carbon in coastal zone protected forests

Thinning is a common forest management measure that can effectively maintain the ecological service function of protected forests. However, the effect of thinning on the soil carbon (C) pool remains uncertain. In particular, we lack an understanding of the complete link between thinning and microbial communities, microbial necromass C, and consequently, soil C pools in coastal zone protected forests. In this study, three thinning intensities, i.e., a control treatment (CT, i.e., no thinning), light thinning (LT) and heavy thinning (HT), were established in three types of forests (Quercus acutissima Carruth, Pinus thunbergii Parl and mixed Quercus acutissima Carruth and Pinus thunbergii Parl, i.e., QAC, PTP and QP, respectively). Two years after the completion of thinning, we investigated the changes in the soil organic carbon (SOC) fractions, soil microbial community and soil microbial necromass C in the surface layer (0-20 cm) and thoroughly evaluated the relationship between the potential change in SOC and the microbial community. Compared with CT, there was no change in the SOC content under LT and HT, but thinning conducted in QAC increased the proportion of mineral-associated organic C (MAOC) in SOC. Moreover, both LT and HT reduced the soil carbon lability (CL) in the QAC and QP forests. Different thinning intensities changed the soil microbial community structure, and most of the variation was explained by thinning and the soil physicochemical properties. The proportion of soil bacterial and fungal necromass C to SOC increased with increasing thinning intensity. The content of soil bacterial and fungal necromass C was mainly controlled by the relative abundance of the core phylum (relative abundance>10 %). Thinning affected the soil C pool by affecting the content of soil bacterial and fungal necromass C, but their accumulation pathways was different. The results showed that thinning was beneficial to the stability of SOC. The microbial C pool, total organic C pool and even bacterial and fungal C pools should be distinguished when studying the soil C pool, which can effectively deepen our understanding of the mechanism by which soil microorganisms affect the soil C pool.

Spatial-temporal variation of the carbon sequestration rate of afforestation in China: Implications for carbon trade and planning

Afforestation and reforestation (A&R) are nature-based and cost-effective solutions for enhancing terrestrial carbon sinks and facilitating faster carbon neutrality. However, the lack of hierarchical spatial-temporal maps for the carbon sequestration rate (CSR) from A&R at the national scale impedes the scientific implementation of forest management planning to a large extent. Here, we assessed the spatial-temporal CSR per area for A&R at the provincial, prefectural, and county levels in China using a forest carbon sequestration model under three climate scenarios. Results showed that the CSR of vegetation (CSR_Veg), soil (CSR_Soil), and the ecosystem (CSR_Eco) significantly varied across space and time. In China, the CSR_Veg, CSR_Soil, and CSR_Eco were primarily regulated by the spatial variations in temperature and precipitation. Additionally, CSR_Veg was found to be positively influenced by precipitation and temperature, whereas temperature had a negative influence on CSR_Soil. Therefore, the differences between the CSR_Veg and CSR_Soil should be emphasized in the future. These information on the spatiotemporal variation of CSR of A&R (vegetation, soil, and ecosystem) on unit area basis and at levels of province, prefecture, and county in China, can be used as a comparable protocol to estimate the carbon sinks of A&R at different scales. Overall, these hierarchical spatiotemporal maps for CSR on A&R may help to identify priority areas of forest management planning and carbon trade policy to achieve faster carbon neutrality for China in the future.

Impacts of vegetation restoration on water resources and carbon sequestration in the mountainous area of Haihe River basin, China

The mountainous region of the Haihe River basin (MHRB) plays an important role in the water resource supply of its nearby mega-cities, including Beijing and Tianjin, and large areas of cropland. With the implementation of afforestation projects in recent decades, vegetation and carbon (C) uptake have greatly increased in the MHRB. In addition, the annual runoff has significantly declined, threatening regional water security. The trade-off relationship between water yield and C uptake in the MHRB remains unknown. This study employed a biogeochemical model (Biome-BGC) to simulate the natural vegetation dynamics and gross primary productivity (GPP) during 1982-2019 driven by climate forcing. A distributed hydrological model (geomorphology-based hydrological model, GBHM) was adopted to assess the impact of vegetation restoration on the hydrological processes. The results indicated that the leaf area index in the MHRB increased significantly (P < 0.01) during 1982-2019, which led to evapotranspiration increase and runoff (R) reduction. Under the influence of vegetation restoration, both the GPP and the water use efficiency (WUE) increased significantly in the MHRB during 2000-2019, however, the improvement of WUE decreased with the aridity index increasing. Our results showed that vegetation restoration can improve C sequestration efficiency in the MHRB and that the trade-off between water yield and C sequestration should be considered in planning ecological projects to achieve C neutrality.

Closing the Gap between Carbon Neutrality Targets and Action: Technology Solutions for China's Key Energy-Intensive Sectors

Facing significant carbon emissions annually, China requires a clear decarbonization strategy to meet its climate targets. This study presents a MESSAGEix-CAEP model to explore Chinese decarbonization pathways and their cost-benefit under two mitigation scenarios by establishing connections between five energy-intensive sectors based on energy and material flows. The results indicated the following: 1) Interaction and feedback between sectors should not be disregarded. The electrification process of the other four sectors was projected to increase electricity production by 206%, resulting in a higher power demand than current forecasts. 2) The marginal abatement cost to achieve carbon neutrality across all five sectors was 2189 CNY/tCO₂, notably higher than current Chinese carbon emission trading prices. 3) The cost-benefit analysis indicates that a more ambitious abatement strategy would decrease the marginal abatement cost and result in a higher net carbon abatement benefit. The cumulative net benefit of carbon reduction was 7.8 trillion CNY under ambitious mitigation scenario, 1.3 trillion CNY higher than that under current Chinese mitigation scenario. These findings suggest that policy-makers should focus on the interaction effects of decarbonization pathways between sectors and strengthen their decarbonization efforts to motivate early carbon reduction.

Ecosystem carbon sequestration service supports the Sustainable Development Goals progress

Ecosystem carbon sequestration service (ECSS) is the benefits humans derive from the ecosystem carbon sequestration process, which is key to regulating climate, stabilising the natural foundation for development, and supporting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) achievement. However, how ECSS contributes to the SDGs still needs to be discovered. Here, based on downscaling localisation SDG indicators, regression methods, and mechanism analysis, we identified the contribution of ECSS to the SDGs, taking China's Loess Plateau (LP) region as an example. The results showed that the LP made higher progress on resource and environmental SDGs, such as SDGs 13, 12, 6, and 7 (climate, consumption and production, water, and energy) in the last two decades. As for the relationships between ECSS and SDGs, the progress of SDGs 6, 7, 13 and 15 (water, energy, climate, and ecosystems) showed positive linear responses to ECSS. The response of SDGs 1, 4, 8, and 12 (poverty reduction, education, economic growth, and consumption and production) to ECSS showed a threshold when the standardised ECSS value was 0.11. To improve ECSS for a more sustainable ecological foundation underpinning the SDGs, ECSS management should be improved to protect the ecosystem carbon pool and improve carbon sequestration function, as well as to promote the social-ecological co-benefits. This work links carbon sequestration service to sustainable development and can help in leveraging nature's contributions towards carbon neutrality and the 2030 Agenda.

Contribution of different types of terrestrial protected areas to carbon sequestration services in China: 1980–2020

Exploring the contribution of protected areas to carbon sequestration services is meaningful to enhance the role of protected areas in climate change mitigation globally. However, less attention has been paid to the contribution of different types of protected areas to carbon sequestration services as well as their changes, which is not conducive to provide more effective solutions in the context of future climate change. Here, we identified the status and changes of carbon sequestration in different types of terrestrial protected areas in China and calculated the amount of carbon sequestration in different ecosystems in terrestrial protected areas and in different climatic zones. Our results indicated that carbon sequestration of China’s terrestrial protected areas had shown a significant increasing trend over the past 40 years (1980–2020) (R2 = 0.862, p &lt; 0.05). Among the different types of terrestrial protected areas in China, nature reserves had the greatest carbon sequestration, accounting for 64–66% of the carbon sequestration in China’s terrestrial protected areas from 1980 to 2020. Although the carbon sequestration per unit area of forest parks was the highest among all types of protected areas, the proportion of carbon sequestration of forest parks tended to decrease significantly over the past 40 years. Carbon sequestration of protected areas in the humid zone had been mainly contributed by forest ecosystems, while grassland and desert ecosystems in terrestrial protected areas in regions with low rainfall (e.g., semi-arid and arid) had made more contribution to carbon sequestration services. Our study showed that China’s terrestrial protected areas had played an important role in carbon sequestration over the past 40 years, but there are still some gaps compared to the global level, and the planning and establishment of protected areas need to be further strengthened in the future.