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Luka MM, Otieno JR, Kamau E, Morobe JM, Murunga N, Adema I, Nyiro JU, Macharia PM, Bigogo G, Otieno NA, Nyawanda BO, Rabaa MA, Emukule GO, Onyango C, Munywoki PK, Agoti CN, Nokes DJ. Rhinovirus dynamics across different social structures. NPJ VIRUSES 2023; 1:6. [PMID: 38665239 PMCID: PMC11041716 DOI: 10.1038/s44298-023-00008-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/29/2023] [Accepted: 10/30/2023] [Indexed: 04/28/2024]
Abstract
Rhinoviruses (RV), common human respiratory viruses, exhibit significant antigenic diversity, yet their dynamics across distinct social structures remain poorly understood. Our study delves into RV dynamics within Kenya by analysing VP4/2 sequences across four different social structures: households, a public primary school, outpatient clinics in the Kilifi Health and Demographics Surveillance System (HDSS), and countrywide hospital admissions and outpatients. The study revealed the greatest diversity of RV infections at the countrywide level (114 types), followed by the Kilifi HDSS (78 types), the school (47 types), and households (40 types), cumulatively representing >90% of all known RV types. Notably, RV diversity correlated directly with the size of the population under observation, and several RV type variants occasionally fuelled RV infection waves. Our findings highlight the critical role of social structures in shaping RV dynamics, information that can be leveraged to enhance public health strategies. Future research should incorporate whole-genome analysis to understand fine-scale evolution across various social structures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Martha M. Luka
- Epidemiology and Demography Department, KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Centre for Geographic Medicine Research – Coast, Kilifi, Kenya
- Department of Biochemistry and Biotechnology, Pwani University, Kilifi, Kenya
- Present Address: School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ UK
| | - James R. Otieno
- Epidemiology and Demography Department, KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Centre for Geographic Medicine Research – Coast, Kilifi, Kenya
| | - Everlyn Kamau
- Epidemiology and Demography Department, KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Centre for Geographic Medicine Research – Coast, Kilifi, Kenya
| | - John Mwita Morobe
- Epidemiology and Demography Department, KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Centre for Geographic Medicine Research – Coast, Kilifi, Kenya
| | - Nickson Murunga
- Epidemiology and Demography Department, KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Centre for Geographic Medicine Research – Coast, Kilifi, Kenya
| | - Irene Adema
- Epidemiology and Demography Department, KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Centre for Geographic Medicine Research – Coast, Kilifi, Kenya
| | - Joyce Uchi Nyiro
- Epidemiology and Demography Department, KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Centre for Geographic Medicine Research – Coast, Kilifi, Kenya
| | - Peter M. Macharia
- Population & Health Impact Surveillance Group, KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Nairobi, Kenya
- Centre for Health Informatics, Computing, and Statistics, Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
- Department of Public Health, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp, Belgium
| | | | | | | | - Maia A. Rabaa
- Coronavirus and Other Respiratory Viruses Division (CORVD), National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD), U.S. Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta, GA USA
| | - Gideon O. Emukule
- U.S. Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Clayton Onyango
- U.S. Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Patrick K. Munywoki
- Epidemiology and Demography Department, KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Centre for Geographic Medicine Research – Coast, Kilifi, Kenya
- U.S. Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Charles N. Agoti
- Epidemiology and Demography Department, KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Centre for Geographic Medicine Research – Coast, Kilifi, Kenya
- Department of Public Health, Pwani University, Kilifi, Kenya
| | - D. James Nokes
- Epidemiology and Demography Department, KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Centre for Geographic Medicine Research – Coast, Kilifi, Kenya
- School of Life Sciences and Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER), University of Warwick, Coventry, UK
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Beukenhorst AL, Koch CM, Hadjichrysanthou C, Alter G, de Wolf F, Anderson RM, Goudsmit J. SARS-CoV-2 elicits non-sterilizing immunity and evades vaccine-induced immunity: implications for future vaccination strategies. Eur J Epidemiol 2023; 38:237-242. [PMID: 36738380 PMCID: PMC9898703 DOI: 10.1007/s10654-023-00965-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/07/2022] [Accepted: 01/07/2023] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
Neither vaccination nor natural infection result in long-lasting protection against SARS-COV-2 infection and transmission, but both reduce the risk of severe COVID-19. To generate insights into optimal vaccination strategies for prevention of severe COVID-19 in the population, we extended a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) mathematical model to compare the impact of vaccines that are highly protective against severe COVID-19 but not against infection and transmission, with those that block SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our analysis shows that vaccination strategies focusing on the prevention of severe COVID-19 are more effective than those focusing on creating of herd immunity. Key uncertainties that would affect the choice of vaccination strategies are: (1) the duration of protection against severe disease, (2) the protection against severe disease from variants that escape vaccine-induced immunity, (3) the incidence of long-COVID and level of protection provided by the vaccine, and (4) the rate of serious adverse events following vaccination, stratified by demographic variables.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna L Beukenhorst
- Department of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
- Centre for Epidemiology Versus Arthritis, University of Manchester, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, Manchester, UK.
- Leyden Laboratories BV, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
| | | | | | - Galit Alter
- Ragon Institute of MGH MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Frank de Wolf
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Roy M Anderson
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Jaap Goudsmit
- Leyden Laboratories BV, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Departments of Epidemiology, Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
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Medina MJ, Nazareth J, Dillon HM, Wighton CJ, Bandi S, Pan D, Nicholson KG, Clark TW, Andrew PW, Pareek M. Respiratory virus transmission using a novel viral challenge model: an observational cohort study. J Infect 2022; 85:405-411. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jinf.2022.08.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/15/2022] [Revised: 07/30/2022] [Accepted: 08/02/2022] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
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