A community study of inapparent cholera infections

Clinical surveillance systems obscure the true cholera infection burden in an endemic region

Our understanding of cholera transmission and burden largely relies on clinic-based surveillance, which can obscure trends, bias burden estimates and limit the impact of targeted cholera-prevention measures. Serological surveillance provides a complementary approach to monitoring infections, although the link between serologically derived infections and medically attended disease incidence-shaped by immunological, behavioral and clinical factors-remains poorly understood. We unravel this cascade in a cholera-endemic Bangladeshi community by integrating clinic-based surveillance, healthcare-seeking and longitudinal serological data through statistical modeling. Combining the serological trajectories with a reconstructed incidence timeline of symptomatic cholera, we estimated an annual Vibrio cholerae O1 infection incidence rate of 535 per 1,000 population (95% credible interval 514-556), with incidence increasing by age group. Clinic-based surveillance alone underestimated the number of infections and reported cases were not consistently correlated with infection timing. Of the infections, 4 in 3,280 resulted in symptoms, only 1 of which was reported through the surveillance system. These results impart insights into cholera transmission dynamics and burden in the epicenter of the seventh cholera pandemic, where >50% of our study population had an annual V. cholerae O1 infection, and emphasize the potential for a biased view of disease burden and infection risk when depending solely on clinical surveillance data.

Inferring the proportion of undetected cholera infections from serological and clinical surveillance in an immunologically naive population

Most infections with pandemic Vibrio cholerae are thought to result in subclinical disease and are not captured by surveillance. Previous estimates of the ratio of infections to clinical cases have varied widely (2 to 100). Understanding cholera epidemiology and immunity relies on the ability to translate between numbers of clinical cases and the underlying number of infections in the population. We estimated the infection incidence during the first months of an outbreak in a cholera-naive population using a Bayesian vibriocidal antibody titer decay model combining measurements from a representative serosurvey and clinical surveillance data. 3,880 suspected cases were reported in Grande Saline, Haiti, between 20 October 2010 and 6 April 2011 (clinical attack rate 18.4%). We found that more than 52.6% (95% Credible Interval (CrI) 49.4-55.7) of the population ≥2 years showed serologic evidence of infection, with a lower infection rate among children aged 2-4 years (35.5%; 95%CrI 24.2-51.6) compared with people ≥5 years (53.1%; 95%CrI 49.4-56.4). This estimated infection rate, nearly three times the clinical attack rate, with underdetection mainly seen in those ≥5 years, has likely impacted subsequent outbreak dynamics. Our findings show how seroincidence estimates improve understanding of links between cholera burden, transmission dynamics and immunity.

Vibrio cholerae O1 transmission in Bangladesh: insights from a nationally representative serosurvey

BACKGROUND

Pandemic Vibrio cholerae from cholera-endemic countries around the Bay of Bengal regularly seed epidemics globally. Without reducing cholera in these countries, including Bangladesh, global cholera control might never be achieved. Little is known about the geographical distribution and magnitude of V cholerae O1 transmission nationally. We aimed to describe infection risk across Bangladesh, making use of advances in cholera seroepidemiology, therefore overcoming many of the limitations of current clinic-based surveillance.

METHODS

We tested serum samples from a nationally representative serosurvey in Bangladesh with eight V cholerae-specific assays. Using these data with a machine-learning model previously validated within a cohort of confirmed cholera cases and their household contacts, we estimated the proportion of the population with evidence of infection by V cholerae O1 in the previous year (annual seroincidence) and used Bayesian geostatistical models to create high-resolution national maps of infection risk.

FINDINGS

Between Oct 16, 2015, and Jan 24, 2016, we obtained and tested serum samples from 2930 participants (707 households) in 70 communities across Bangladesh. We estimated national annual seroincidence of V cholerae O1 infection of 17·3% (95% CI 10·5-24·1). Our high-resolution maps showed large heterogeneity of infection risk, with community-level annual infection risk within the sampled population ranging from 4·3% to 62·9%. Across Bangladesh, we estimated that 28·1 (95% CI 17·1-39·2) million infections occurred in the year before the survey. Despite having an annual seroincidence of V cholerae O1 infection lower than much of Bangladesh, Dhaka (the capital of Bangladesh and largest city in the country) had 2·0 (95% CI 0·6-3·9) million infections during the same year, primarily because of its large population.

INTERPRETATION

Serosurveillance provides an avenue for identifying areas with high V cholerae O1 transmission and investigating key risk factors for infection across geographical scales. Serosurveillance could serve as an important method for countries to plan and monitor progress towards 2030 cholera elimination goals.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institutes of Health, and US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

How Food Affects Colonization Resistance Against Enteropathogenic Bacteria

Food has a major impact on all aspects of health. Recent data suggest that food composition can also affect susceptibility to infections by enteropathogenic bacteria. Here, we discuss how food may alter the microbiota as well as mucosal defenses and how this can affect infection. Salmonella Typhimurium diarrhea serves as a paradigm, and complementary evidence comes from other pathogens. We discuss the effects of food composition on colonization resistance, host defenses, and the infection process as well as the merits and limitations of mouse models and experimental foods, which are available to decipher the underlying mechanisms.

Cholera outbreaks in Africa

During the current seventh cholera pandemic, Africa bore the major brunt of global disease burden. More than 40 years after its resurgence in Africa in 1970, cholera remains a grave public health problem, characterized by large disease burden, frequent outbreaks, persistent endemicity, and high CFRs, particularly in the region of the central African Great Lakes which might act as reservoirs for cholera. There, cases occur year round with a rise in incidence during the rainy season. Elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa, cholera occurs mostly in outbreaks of varying size with a constant threat of widespread epidemics. Between 1970 and 2011, African countries reported 3,221,050 suspected cholera cases to the World Health Organization, representing 46 % of all cases reported globally. Excluding the Haitian epidemic, sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 86 % of reported cases and 99 % of deaths worldwide in 2011. The number of cholera cases is possibly much higher than what is reported to the WHO due to the variation in modalities, completeness, and case definition of national cholera data. One source on country specific incidence rates for Africa, adjusting for underreporting, estimates 1,341,080 cases and 160,930 deaths (52.6 % of 2,548,227 estimated cases and 79.6 % of 209,216 estimated deaths worldwide). Another estimates 1,411,453 cases and 53,632 deaths per year, respectively (50 % of 2,836,669 estimated cases and 58.6 % of 91,490 estimated deaths worldwide). Within Africa, half of all cases between 1970 and 2011 were notified from only seven countries: Angola, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique, Nigeria, Somalia, Tanzania, and South Africa. In contrast to a global trend of decreasing case fatality ratios (CFRs), CFRs have remained stable in Africa at approximately 2 %. Early propagation of cholera outbreaks depends largely on the extent of individual bacterial shedding, host and organism characteristics, the likelihood of people coming into contact with an infectious dose of Vibrio cholerae and on the virulence of the implicated strain. Cholera transmission can then be amplified by several factors including contamination of human water- or food sources; climate and extreme weather events; political and economic crises; high population density combined with poor quality informal housing and poor hygiene practices; spread beyond a local community through human travel and animals, e.g., water birds. At an individual level, cholera risk may increase with decreasing immunity and hypochlorhydria, such as that induced by Helicobacter pylori infection, which is endemic in much of Africa, and may increase individual susceptibility and cholera incidence. Since contaminated water is the main vehicle for the spread of cholera, the obvious long-term solution to eradicate the disease is the provision of safe water to all African populations. This requires considerable human and financial resources and time. In the short and medium term, vaccination may help to prevent and control the spread of cholera outbreaks. Regardless of the intervention, further understanding of cholera biology and epidemiology is essential to identify populations and areas at increased risk and thus ensure the most efficient use of scarce resources for the prevention and control of cholera.

Cholera outbreaks in the classical biotype era

In the Indian subcontinent description of a disease resembling cholera has been mentioned in Sushruta Samita, estimated to have been written between ~400 and 500 BC. It is however not clear whether the disease known today as cholera caused by Vibrio cholerae Vibrio cholerae O1 is the evolutionary progression of the ancient disease. The modern history of cholera began in 1817 when an explosive epidemic broke out in the Ganges River Delta region of Bengal. This was the first of the seven recorded cholera pandemics cholera pandemics that affected nearly the entire world and caused hundreds of thousands of deaths. The bacterium responsible for this human disease was first recognised during the fifth pandemic and was named V. cholerae which was grouped as O1, and was further differentiated into Classical and El Tor biotypes. It is now known that the fifth and the sixth pandemics were caused by the V. cholerae O1 of the Classical biotype Classical biotype and the seventh by the El Tor biotype El Tor biotype . The El Tor biotype of V. cholerae, which originated in Indonesia Indonesia and shortly thereafter began to spread in the early 1960s. Within the span of 50 years the El Tor biotype had invaded nearly the entire world, completely displacing the Classical biotype from all the countries except Bangladesh. What prompted the earlier pandemics to begin is not clearly understood, nor do we know how and why they ended. The success of the seventh pandemic clone over the pre-existing sixth pandemic strain remains largely an unsolved mystery. Why classical biotype eventually disappeared from the world remains to be explained. For nearly three decades (1963-1991) during the Seventh cholera pandemic seventh pandemic, cholera in Bangladesh has recorded a unique history of co-existence of Classical and El Tor biotypes of V. cholerae O1 as epidemic and endemic strain. This long co-existence has provided us with great opportunity to improve our understanding of the disease itself and answer some important questions.

Cholera transmission: the host, pathogen and bacteriophage dynamic

Zimbabwe offers the most recent example of the tragedy that befalls a country and its people when cholera strikes. The 2008-2009 outbreak rapidly spread across every province and brought rates of mortality similar to those witnessed as a consequence of cholera infections a hundred years ago. In this Review we highlight the advances that will help to unravel how interactions between the host, the bacterial pathogen and the lytic bacteriophage might propel and quench cholera outbreaks in endemic settings and in emergent epidemic regions such as Zimbabwe.

Inapparent infections and cholera dynamics

In many infectious diseases, an unknown fraction of infections produce symptoms mild enough to go unrecorded, a fact that can seriously compromise the interpretation of epidemiological records. This is true for cholera, a pandemic bacterial disease, where estimates of the ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic infections have ranged from 3 to 100 (refs 1-5). In the absence of direct evidence, understanding of fundamental aspects of cholera transmission, immunology and control has been based on assumptions about this ratio and about the immunological consequences of inapparent infections. Here we show that a model incorporating high asymptomatic ratio and rapidly waning immunity, with infection both from human and environmental sources, explains 50 yr of mortality data from 26 districts of Bengal, the pathogen's endemic home. We find that the asymptomatic ratio in cholera is far higher than had been previously supposed and that the immunity derived from mild infections wanes much more rapidly than earlier analyses have indicated. We find, too, that the environmental reservoir (free-living pathogen) is directly responsible for relatively few infections but that it may be critical to the disease's endemicity. Our results demonstrate that inapparent infections can hold the key to interpreting the patterns of disease outbreaks. New statistical methods, which allow rigorous maximum likelihood inference based on dynamical models incorporating multiple sources and outcomes of infection, seasonality, process noise, hidden variables and measurement error, make it possible to test more precise hypotheses and obtain unexpected results. Our experience suggests that the confrontation of time-series data with mechanistic models is likely to revise our understanding of the ecology of many infectious diseases.

Análise dos anticorpos vibriocidas e aglutinantes na população urbana do Município do Manacapuru/AM (1992/1993)

Foi realizado um estudo sorológico em 1.196 indivíduos residentes na área urbana do município de Manacapuru/AM, visando analisar o perfil dos anticorpos vibriocidas e aglutinantes. Empregou-se o procedimento de amostragem aleatória sistemática na obtenção da amostra populacional. Um ano após, obteve-se uma 2a amostra de soro de 120 indivíduos (10% da amostra inicial), escolhidos aleatoriamente entre os participantes do inquérito, com o objetivo de avaliar o comportamento dos anticorpos nesse intervalo de tempo. Foram empregados os métodos de microtitulação de anticorpos vibriocidas e de soroaglutinação em tubos. A associação entre os anticorpos estudados foi determinada pelo coeficiente de correlação, calculado com base na distribuição de freqüência dos títulos detectados. A análise dos resultados revelou forte correlação positiva entre os anticorpos (r = 1,0) e queda nos títulos em grande proporção das amostras após um ano.

Cholera-Brucella Cross-Reaction: A New Potential Diagnostic Problem for Travelers to Latin America

Background: Brucellosis is an endemic disease in Latin America and other countries. Serologic cross-reaction between cholera and Brucella infection is well recognized. Since the introduction to cholera in 1991 in Latin America, interpreting serologic tests has become potentially problematic. This study attempts to evaluate this problem. Methods: Tube agglutination tests were performed to detect Brucella antibodies in 44 Peruvian adult patients with moderate to severe diarrhea due to Vibrio cholerae O1 El Tor infection. These patients had no prior history and no clinical evidence of brucellosis. Results: False positive reactions were observed in 43.2% and 15.9% of the patients when cut-off points of >= 1/80 and >= 1/160 titer, respectively, were selected. These false positive reactions occurred within 4 to 14 days after the onset of diarrhea. The cross-reactivity decreased at the end of the fifth week (only 8.33% had a positive value at the fifth week). Conclusions: Physicians should be alert to the false positive reaction to Brucella in patients with diarrhea. This is relevant to the evaluation of febrile illness in patients coming from developing countries where they could have been exposed to cholera.

Seroepidemiology of cholera in Gulf coastal Texas

Single serum samples from 559 volunteers from a Texas Gulf Coast area were examined for vibriocidal antibody to Vibrio cholerae O1 (biotype El Tor, serotype Inaba) by a microtiter method. Elevated levels of vibriocidal antibody were present in 14% of the subjects. Also, 6.8% of the subjects had elevated levels of antibody to the enterotoxin of V. cholerae O1 by the immunoglobulin G enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Recent infection, defined on the basis of elevations in both vibriocidal and antitoxin antibodies, had occurred in 1.3% of the subjects. When subjects who reported Brucella infection, travel to a cholera-endemic area, and/or cholera vaccination within a year of the study were removed from the analysis, a prevalence of recent infection of 0.89% was obtained. Significantly higher titers of vibriocidal antibody were found in those with exposure to seawater (fishermen, shrimpers, merchant marines, and dock workers) than in those without such exposure (P less than 0.005). Furthermore, titers of antitoxin antibody were significantly higher in those who consumed shellfish than in nonconsumers. Finally, titers of vibriocidal antibody were significantly higher in Vietnamese subjects than in non-Vietnamese subjects. The results of this study indicate that an endemic focus of infection with V. cholerae occurs in this area.

Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli and idiopathic diarrhoea in Bangladesh

Faecal Escherichia coli from Bangalee patients with idiopathic diarrhoea were tested in the Chinese hamster ovary cell (C.H.O.) assay to detect production of thermolabile enterotoxin (L.T.). C.H.O-positive E. coli produce both L.T. and a thermostable toxin (S.T.). C.H.O.-positive strains were found in 19.2% of all cases and in 70% of the most severely ill patients with non-vibrio cholera. E. coli which produce S.T. alone were identified in a third of the C.H.O.-negative cases. Enterotoxigenic E. coli were found in 55% of inpatients with idiopathic diarrhoea and, if an aetiological role is confirmed, may be one of the commonest causes of tropical diarrhoea.