Can we harness digital technologies and physiology to hasten genetic gain in US maize breeding?

Modeling soybean growth: A mixed model approach

The evaluation of plant and animal growth, separately for genetic and environmental effects, is necessary for genetic understanding and genetic improvement of environmental responses of plants and animals. We propose to extend an existing approach that combines nonlinear mixed-effects model (NLMEM) and the stochastic approximation of the Expectation-Maximization algorithm (SAEM) to analyze genetic and environmental effects on plant growth. These tools are widely used in many fields but very rarely in plant biology. During model formulation, a nonlinear function describes the shape of growth, and random effects describe genetic and environmental effects and their variability. Genetic relationships among the varieties were also integrated into the model using a genetic relationship matrix. The SAEM algorithm was chosen as an efficient alternative to MCMC methods, which are more commonly used in the domain. It was implemented to infer the expected growth patterns in the analyzed population and the expected curves for each variety through a maximum-likelihood and a maximum-a-posteriori approaches, respectively. The obtained estimates can be used to predict the growth curves for each variety. We illustrate the strengths of the proposed approach using simulated data and soybean plant growth data obtained from a soybean cultivation experiment conducted at the Arid Land Research Center, Tottori University. In this experiment, plant height was measured daily using drones, and the growth was monitored for approximately 200 soybean cultivars for which whole-genome sequence data were available. The NLMEM approach improved our understanding of the determinants of soybean growth and can be successfully used for the genomic prediction of growth pattern characteristics.

Mapping and quantifying unique branching structures in lentil (Lens culinaris Medik.)

BACKGROUND

Lentil (Lens culinaris Medik.) is a globally-significant agricultural crop used to feed millions of people. Lentils have been cultivated in the Australian states of Victoria and South Australia for several decades, but efforts are now being made to expand their cultivation into Western Australia and New South Wales. Plant architecture plays a pivotal role in adaptation, leading to improved and stable yields especially in new expansion regions. Image-based high-throughput phenomics technologies provide opportunities for an improved understanding of plant development, architecture, and trait genetics. This paper describes a novel method for mapping and quantifying individual branch structures on immature glasshouse-grown lentil plants grown using a LemnaTec Scanalyser 3D high-throughput phenomics platform, which collected side-view RGB images at regular intervals under controlled photographic conditions throughout the experiment. A queue and distance-based algorithm that analysed morphological skeletons generated from images of lentil plants was developed in Python. This code was incorporated into an image analysis pipeline using open-source software (PlantCV) to measure the number, angle, and length of individual branches on lentil plants.

RESULTS

Branching structures could be accurately identified and quantified in immature plants, which is sufficient for calculating early vigour traits, however the accuracy declined as the plants matured. Absolute accuracy for branch counts was 77.9% for plants at 22 days after sowing (DAS), 57.9% at 29 DAS and 51.9% at 36 DAS. Allowing for an error of ± 1 branch, the associated accuracies for the same time periods were 97.6%, 90.8% and 79.2% respectively. Occlusion in more mature plants made the mapping of branches less accurate, but the information collected could still be useful for trait estimation. For branch length calculations, the amount of variance explained by linear mixed-effects models was 82% for geodesic length and 87% for Euclidean branch lengths. Within these models, both the mean geodesic and Euclidean distance measurements of branches were found to be significantly affected by genotype, DAS and their interaction. Two informative metrices were derived from the calculations of branch angle; 'splay' is a measure of how far a branch angle deviates from being fully upright whilst 'angle-difference' is the difference between the smallest and largest recorded branch angle on each plant. The amount of variance explained by linear mixed-effects models was 38% for splay and 50% for angle difference. These lower R2 values are likely due to the inherent difficulties in measuring these parameters, nevertheless both splay and angle difference were found to be significantly affected by cultivar, DAS and their interaction. When 276 diverse lentil genotypes with varying degrees of salt tolerance were grown in a glasshouse-based experiment where a portion were subjected to a salt treatment, the branching algorithm was able to distinguish between salt-treated and untreated lentil lines based on differences in branch counts. Likewise, the mean geodesic and Euclidean distance measurements of branches were both found to be significantly affected by cultivar, DAS and salt treatment. The amount of variance explained by the linear mixed-effects models was 57.8% for geodesic branch length and 46.5% for Euclidean branch length.

CONCLUSION

The methodology enabled the accurate quantification of the number, angle, and length of individual branches on glasshouse-grown lentil plants. This methodology could be applied to other dicotyledonous species.

GIS-FA: an approach to integrating thematic maps, factor-analytic, and envirotyping for cultivar targeting

KEY MESSAGE

We propose an "enviromics" prediction model for recommending cultivars based on thematic maps aimed at decision-makers. Parsimonious methods that capture genotype-by-environment interaction (GEI) in multi-environment trials (MET) are important in breeding programs. Understanding the causes and factors of GEI allows the utilization of genotype adaptations in the target population of environments through environmental features and factor-analytic (FA) models. Here, we present a novel predictive breeding approach called GIS-FA, which integrates geographic information systems (GIS) techniques, FA models, partial least squares (PLS) regression, and enviromics to predict phenotypic performance in untested environments. The GIS-FA approach enables: (i) the prediction of the phenotypic performance of tested genotypes in untested environments, (ii) the selection of the best-ranking genotypes based on their overall performance and stability using the FA selection tools, and (iii) the creation of thematic maps showing overall or pairwise performance and stability for decision-making. We exemplify the usage of the GIS-FA approach using two datasets of rice [Oryza sativa (L.)] and soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] in MET spread over tropical areas. In summary, our novel predictive method allows the identification of new breeding scenarios by pinpointing groups of environments where genotypes demonstrate superior predicted performance. It also facilitates and optimizes cultivar recommendations by utilizing thematic maps.

Biocultural diversity and crop improvement

Biocultural diversity is the ever-evolving and irreplaceable sum total of all living organisms inhabiting the Earth. It plays a significant role in sustainable productivity and ecosystem services that benefit humanity and is closely allied with human cultural diversity. Despite its essentiality, biodiversity is seriously threatened by the insatiable and inequitable human exploitation of the Earth's resources. One of the benefits of biodiversity is its utilization in crop improvement, including cropping improvement (agronomic cultivation practices) and genetic improvement (plant breeding). Crop improvement has tended to decrease agricultural biodiversity since the origins of agriculture, but awareness of this situation can reverse this negative trend. Cropping improvement can strive to use more diverse cultivars and a broader complement of crops on farms and in landscapes. It can also focus on underutilized crops, including legumes. Genetic improvement can access a broader range of biodiversity sources and, with the assistance of modern breeding tools like genomics, can facilitate the introduction of additional characteristics that improve yield, mitigate environmental stresses, and restore, at least partially, lost crop biodiversity. The current legal framework covering biodiversity includes national intellectual property and international treaty instruments, which have tended to limit access and innovation to biodiversity. A global system of access and benefit sharing, encompassing digital sequence information, would benefit humanity but remains an elusive goal. The Kunming-Montréal Global Biodiversity Framework sets forth an ambitious set of targets and goals to be accomplished by 2030 and 2050, respectively, to protect and restore biocultural diversity, including agrobiodiversity.

Leveraging data from the Genomes-to-Fields Initiative to investigate genotype-by-environment interactions in maize in North America

Genotype-by-environment (G×E) interactions can significantly affect crop performance and stability. Investigating G×E requires extensive data sets with diverse cultivars tested over multiple locations and years. The Genomes-to-Fields (G2F) Initiative has tested maize hybrids in more than 130 year-locations in North America since 2014. Here, we curate and expand this data set by generating environmental covariates (using a crop model) for each of the trials. The resulting data set includes DNA genotypes and environmental data linked to more than 70,000 phenotypic records of grain yield and flowering traits for more than 4000 hybrids. We show how this valuable data set can serve as a benchmark in agricultural modeling and prediction, paving the way for countless G×E investigations in maize. We use multivariate analyses to characterize the data set's genetic and environmental structure, study the association of key environmental factors with traits, and provide benchmarks using genomic prediction models.

Machine learning applications to improve flavor and nutritional content of horticultural crops through breeding and genetics

Over the last decades, significant strides were made in understanding the biochemical factors influencing the nutritional content and flavor profile of fruits and vegetables. Product differentiation in the produce aisle is the natural consequence of increasing consumer power in the food industry. Cotton-candy grapes, specialty tomatoes, and pineapple-flavored white strawberries provide a few examples. Given the increased demand for flavorful varieties, and pressing need to reduce micronutrient malnutrition, we expect breeding to increase its prioritization toward these traits. Reaching this goal will, in part, necessitate knowledge of the genetic architecture controlling these traits, as well as the development of breeding methods that maximize their genetic gain. Can artificial intelligence (AI) help predict flavor preferences, and can such insights be leveraged by breeding programs? In this Perspective, we outline both the opportunities and challenges for the development of more flavorful and nutritious crops, and how AI can support these breeding initiatives.

Two decades of harnessing standing genetic variation for physiological traits to improve drought tolerance in maize

We review approaches to maize breeding for improved drought tolerance during flowering and grain filling in the central and western US corn belt and place our findings in the context of results from public breeding. Here we show that after two decades of dedicated breeding efforts, the rate of crop improvement under drought increased from 6.2 g m-2 year-1 to 7.5 g m-2 year-1, closing the genetic gain gap with respect to the 8.6 g m-2 year-1 observed under water-sufficient conditions. The improvement relative to the long-term genetic gain was possible by harnessing favourable alleles for physiological traits available in the reference population of genotypes. Experimentation in managed stress environments that maximized the genetic correlation with target environments was key for breeders to identify and select for these alleles. We also show that the embedding of physiological understanding within genomic selection methods via crop growth models can hasten genetic gain under drought. We estimate a prediction accuracy differential (Δr) above current prediction approaches of ~30% (Δr=0.11, r=0.38), which increases with increasing complexity of the trait environment system as estimated by Shannon information theory. We propose this framework to inform breeding strategies for drought stress across geographies and crops.

Image-based phenomic prediction can provide valuable decision support in wheat breeding

KEY MESSAGE

Genotype-by-environment interactions of secondary traits based on high-throughput field phenotyping are less complex than those of target traits, allowing for a phenomic selection in unreplicated early generation trials. Traditionally, breeders' selection decisions in early generations are largely based on visual observations in the field. With the advent of affordable genome sequencing and high-throughput phenotyping technologies, enhancing breeders' ratings with such information became attractive. In this research, it is hypothesized that G[Formula: see text]E interactions of secondary traits (i.e., growth dynamics' traits) are less complex than those of related target traits (e.g., yield). Thus, phenomic selection (PS) may allow selecting for genotypes with beneficial response-pattern in a defined population of environments. A set of 45 winter wheat varieties was grown at 5 year-sites and analyzed with linear and factor-analytic (FA) mixed models to estimate G[Formula: see text]E interactions of secondary and target traits. The dynamic development of drone-derived plant height, leaf area and tiller density estimations was used to estimate the timing of key stages, quantities at defined time points and temperature dose-response curve parameters. Most of these secondary traits and grain protein content showed little G[Formula: see text]E interactions. In contrast, the modeling of G[Formula: see text]E for yield required a FA model with two factors. A trained PS model predicted overall yield performance, yield stability and grain protein content with correlations of 0.43, 0.30 and 0.34. While these accuracies are modest and do not outperform well-trained GS models, PS additionally provided insights into the physiological basis of target traits. An ideotype was identified that potentially avoids the negative pleiotropic effects between yield and protein content.

Inclusive collaboration across plant physiology and genomics: Now is the time!

Within the broad field of plant sciences, what are the most pressing challenges and opportunities to advance? Answers to this question usually include food and nutritional security, climate change mitigation, adaptation of plants to changing climates, preservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services, production of plant-based proteins and products, and growth of the bioeconomy. Genes and the processes their products carry out create differences in how plants grow, develop, and behave, and thus, the key solutions to these challenges lie squarely in the space where plant genomics and physiology intersect. Advancements in genomics, phenomics, and analysis tools have generated massive datasets, but these data are complex and have not always generated scientific insights at the anticipated pace. Further, new tools may need to be created or adapted, and field-relevant applications tested, to advance scientific discovery derived from such datasets. Meaningful, relevant conclusions and connections from genomics and plant physiological and biochemical data require both subject matter expertise and the collaborative skills needed to work together outside of specific disciplines. Bringing the best expertise to bear on complex problems in plant sciences requires enhanced, inclusive, and sustained collaboration across disciplines. However, despite significant efforts to enable and sustain collaborative research, a variety of challenges persist. Here, we present the outcomes and conclusions of two workshops convened to address the need for collaboration between scientists engaged in plant physiology, genetics, and genomics and to discuss the approaches that will create the necessary environments to support successful collaboration. We conclude with approaches to share and reward collaboration and the need to train inclusive scientists that will have the skills to thrive in interdisciplinary contexts.

Extending the breeder's equation to take aim at the target population of environments

A major focus for genomic prediction has been on improving trait prediction accuracy using combinations of algorithms and the training data sets available from plant breeding multi-environment trials (METs). Any improvements in prediction accuracy are viewed as pathways to improve traits in the reference population of genotypes and product performance in the target population of environments (TPE). To realize these breeding outcomes there must be a positive MET-TPE relationship that provides consistency between the trait variation expressed within the MET data sets that are used to train the genome-to-phenome (G2P) model for applications of genomic prediction and the realized trait and performance differences in the TPE for the genotypes that are the prediction targets. The strength of this MET-TPE relationship is usually assumed to be high, however it is rarely quantified. To date investigations of genomic prediction methods have focused on improving prediction accuracy within MET training data sets, with less attention to quantifying the structure of the TPE and the MET-TPE relationship and their potential impact on training the G2P model for applications of genomic prediction to accelerate breeding outcomes for the on-farm TPE. We extend the breeder's equation and use an example to demonstrate the importance of the MET-TPE relationship as a key component for the design of genomic prediction methods to realize improved rates of genetic gain for the target yield, quality, stress tolerance and yield stability traits in the on-farm TPE.

Breeding crops for drought-affected environments and improved climate resilience

Breeding climate-resilient crops with improved levels of abiotic and biotic stress resistance as a response to climate change presents both opportunities and challenges. Applying the framework of the "breeder's equation," which is used to predict the response to selection for a breeding program cycle, we review methodologies and strategies that have been used to successfully breed crops with improved levels of drought resistance, where the target population of environments (TPEs) is a spatially and temporally heterogeneous mixture of drought-affected and favorable (water-sufficient) environments. Long-term improvement of temperate maize for the US corn belt is used as a case study and compared with progress for other crops and geographies. Integration of trait information across scales, from genomes to ecosystems, is needed to accurately predict yield outcomes for genotypes within the current and future TPEs. This will require transdisciplinary teams to explore, identify, and exploit novel opportunities to accelerate breeding program outcomes; both improved germplasm resources and improved products (cultivars, hybrids, clones, and populations) that outperform and replace the products in use by farmers, in combination with modified agronomic management strategies suited to their local environments.

Smart breeding driven by big data, artificial intelligence, and integrated genomic-enviromic prediction

The first paradigm of plant breeding involves direct selection-based phenotypic observation, followed by predictive breeding using statistical models for quantitative traits constructed based on genetic experimental design and, more recently, by incorporation of molecular marker genotypes. However, plant performance or phenotype (P) is determined by the combined effects of genotype (G), envirotype (E), and genotype by environment interaction (GEI). Phenotypes can be predicted more precisely by training a model using data collected from multiple sources, including spatiotemporal omics (genomics, phenomics, and enviromics across time and space). Integration of 3D information profiles (G-P-E), each with multidimensionality, provides predictive breeding with both tremendous opportunities and great challenges. Here, we first review innovative technologies for predictive breeding. We then evaluate multidimensional information profiles that can be integrated with a predictive breeding strategy, particularly envirotypic data, which have largely been neglected in data collection and are nearly untouched in model construction. We propose a smart breeding scheme, integrated genomic-enviromic prediction (iGEP), as an extension of genomic prediction, using integrated multiomics information, big data technology, and artificial intelligence (mainly focused on machine and deep learning). We discuss how to implement iGEP, including spatiotemporal models, environmental indices, factorial and spatiotemporal structure of plant breeding data, and cross-species prediction. A strategy is then proposed for prediction-based crop redesign at both the macro (individual, population, and species) and micro (gene, metabolism, and network) scales. Finally, we provide perspectives on translating smart breeding into genetic gain through integrative breeding platforms and open-source breeding initiatives. We call for coordinated efforts in smart breeding through iGEP, institutional partnerships, and innovative technological support.

Physiological trait networks enhance understanding of crop growth and water use in contrasting environments

Plant function arises from a complex network of structural and physiological traits. Explicit representation of these traits, as well as their connections with other biophysical processes, is required to advance our understanding of plant-soil-climate interactions. We used the Terrestrial Regional Ecosystem Exchange Simulator (TREES) to evaluate physiological trait networks in maize. Net primary productivity (NPP) and grain yield were simulated across five contrasting climate scenarios. Simulations achieving high NPP and grain yield in high precipitation environments featured trait networks conferring high water use strategies: deep roots, high stomatal conductance at low water potential ("risky" stomatal regulation), high xylem hydraulic conductivity and high maximal leaf area index. In contrast, high NPP and grain yield was achieved in dry environments with low late-season precipitation via water conserving trait networks: deep roots, high embolism resistance and low stomatal conductance at low leaf water potential ("conservative" stomatal regulation). We suggest that our approach, which allows for the simultaneous evaluation of physiological traits, soil characteristics and their interactions (i.e., networks), has potential to improve our understanding of crop performance in different environments. In contrast, evaluating single traits in isolation of other coordinated traits does not appear to be an effective strategy for predicting plant performance.