Factors associated with non-pharmaceutical interventions compliance during COVID-19 pandemic: a Portuguese cross-sectional survey

Evaluating the direct effect of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe

BACKGROUND

Across Europe, countries have responded to the COVID-19 pandemic with a combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination. Evaluating the effectiveness of such interventions is of particular relevance to policy-makers.

METHODS

We leverage almost three years of available data across 38 European countries to evaluate the effectiveness of governmental responses in controlling the pandemic. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model that flexibly relates daily COVID-19 incidence to past levels of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions as summarised in the Stringency Index. Specifically, we use a distributed lag approach to temporally weight past intervention values, a tensor-product smooth to capture non-linearities and interactions between both types of interventions, and a hierarchical approach to parsimoniously address heterogeneity across countries.

RESULTS

We identify a pronounced negative association between daily incidence and the strength of non-pharmaceutical interventions, along with substantial heterogeneity in effectiveness among European countries. Similarly, we observe a strong but more consistent negative association with vaccination levels. Our results show that non-linear interactions shape the effectiveness of interventions, with non-pharmaceutical interventions becoming less effective under high vaccination levels. Finally, our results indicate that the effects of interventions on daily incidence are most pronounced at a lag of 14 days after being in place.

CONCLUSIONS

Our Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach reveals clear negative and lagged effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on confirmed COVID-19 cases across European countries.

Sociodemographic influences on private and professional contact behaviour during the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany: cross-sectional analysis based on a Regional Blood Donor Cohort

OBJECTIVE

The COVID-19 pandemic has had significant health and socioeconomic impacts worldwide. Extensive measures, including contact restrictions, were implemented to control the spread of the virus. This study aims to examine the factors that influenced private and professional contact behaviour during the COVID-19 pandemic.

RESULTS

We used baseline data (January-April 2021) from the SeMaCo study (Serologische Untersuchungen bei Blutspendern des Großraums Magdeburg auf Antikörper gegen SARS-CoV-2), a longitudinal, regional cohort study assessing COVID-19 seroprevalence in blood donors from Magdeburg and surrounding areas in Germany. In the blood donor cohort (n = 2,195), there was a general reduction in private contacts (by 78.9%) and professional contacts (by 54.4%) after March 18, 2020. Individuals with higher education reduced both private (by 84.1%) and professional (by 70.1%) contacts more than those with lower education levels (private contacts 59.5%; professional contacts 37%). Younger age groups (18-30 years) reduced private contacts more frequently (by 85.4%) than older individuals (61-83 years, by 68.6%) and demonstrated a higher likelihood of private contact reduction compared to older age groups (51-60 years: odds ratio (OR) 0.45 [95% [CI] 0.32-0.65]; 61-83 years: OR 0.33 [95% [CI] 0.22-0.48]).

Survey of public knowledge, attitudes, and practices regarding personal protection against COVID-19 in the post-pandemic era

In the emerging post-pandemic era (the 'wavelet' era), humans must coexist with viruses for the foreseeable future, and personal protective behaviors will largely replace national-level preventive measures. In this new normal, encouraging the public to implement proper personal protective behaviors against the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is vital to the sustainable development of cities and communities. This knowledge-attitude-practice (KAP) survey conducted in Chengdu (N = 900) narrowed the knowledge gap regarding post-pandemic public practices of protective behavior. Findings show that:(1) approximately 1/3 of the respondents are currently not concerned about COVID-19 at all; (2) respondents with different demographics and individual COVID-19-related factors showed significant differences in practice behaviors indoors and outdoors; (3) vulnerable groups performed better in practice behavior indoors/outdoors; (4) because the public may relax their vigilance outdoors, public places may become a transmission threat in the next outbreak; (5) attitudes are important, but limited incentives for practice; and (6) when knowledge increases beyond a threshold (68.75-75% in this study), protective behaviors decrease. Our results suggest that authorities must continue to educate and motivate the public, extending measures to cover personal protective practices, and have targeted policies for specific demographics to ensure equity in healthcare in the event of another pandemic (COVID-19 and alike crisis). Besides, comparing the results of the current study with similar studies conducted in other parts of the world can provide insights into how different populations respond to and adopt COVID-19 protective behaviors. The epidemiologists can use the data collected by this and other KAP surveys to refine epidemiologic models, which can help predict the spread of the virus and the impact of interventions in different settings.

Autonomous and policy-induced behavior change during the COVID-19 pandemic: Towards understanding and modeling the interplay of behavioral adaptation

Changes in human behaviors, such as reductions of physical contacts and the adoption of preventive measures, impact the transmission of infectious diseases considerably. Behavioral adaptations may be the result of individuals aiming to protect themselves or mere responses to public containment measures, or a combination of both. What drives autonomous and policy-induced adaptation, how they are related and change over time is insufficiently understood. Here, we develop a framework for more precise analysis of behavioral adaptation, focusing on confluence, interactions and time variance of autonomous and policy-induced adaptation. We carry out an empirical analysis of Germany during the fall of 2020 and beyond. Subsequently, we discuss how behavioral adaptation processes can be better represented in behavioral-epidemiological models. We find that our framework is useful to understand the interplay of autonomous and policy-induced adaptation as a "moving target". Our empirical analysis suggests that mobility patterns in Germany changed significantly due to both autonomous and policy-induced adaption, with potentially weaker effects over time due to decreasing risk signals, diminishing risk perceptions and an erosion of trust in the government. We find that while a number of simulation and prediction models have made great efforts to represent behavioral adaptation, the interplay of autonomous and policy-induced adaption needs to be better understood to construct convincing counterfactual scenarios for policy analysis. The insights presented here are of interest to modelers and policy makers aiming to understand and account for behaviors during a pandemic response more accurately.

Mobile vaccination units substantially increase COVID-19 vaccinations: evidence from a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Governments around the world used mobile vaccination units (MVUs) to increase COVID-19 vaccine uptake, but the causal effect of MVUs has not yet been evaluated.

METHODS

In a randomized controlled trial (RCT) with 20 Swiss communities (10 treatment, 10 control) in August 2021, MVUs were sent to treatment communities for 4 hours on a single day. The experimental sample comprises 20 414 adults who were unvaccinated against COVID-19 at this point. The researchers designed the RCT and the government introduced the idea to test the effectiveness of MVUs and was responsible for administering the vaccines.

RESULTS

The vaccination rate in the sample of the treatment group surpassed the rate in the control group by a factor of 3.4 (+9.0 percentage points) over 3 weeks. The increase was present and highly statistically significant for women, men and for all age groups. We found no evidence of cannibalization of vaccinations at other service locations.

CONCLUSIONS

The offer of MVUs is highly effective in raising vaccination rates, even at a later point in the vaccination campaign. The absence of cannibalization effects suggests that MVUs reach more people overall, not just faster.

Impact of Vaccination and Nonpharmaceutical Interventions With Possible COVID-19 Viral Evolutions Using an Agent-Based Simulation

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic continues with highly contagious variants and waning immunity. As the virus keeps evolving to be more infectious and immune evasive, some question whether the COVID-19 pandemic can be managed through sustainable public health measures.

Methods

We developed an agent-based simulation to explore the impact of COVID-19 mutations, periodic vaccinations, and nonpharmaceutical interventions on reducing COVID-19 deaths. The model is calibrated to the greater Seattle area by observing local epidemic data. We perform scenario analyses on viral mutations that change infectiousness, disease severity, and immune evasiveness from previous infections and vaccination every 6 months. The simulation is run until the end of year 2023.

Results

Variants with increased infectivity or increased immune evasion dominate previous strains. With enhanced immune protection from a pancoronavirus vaccine, the most optimistic periodic vaccination rate reduces average total deaths by 44.6% compared with the most pessimistic periodic vaccination rate. A strict threshold nonpharmaceutical intervention policy reduces average total deaths by 71.3% compared with an open society, whereas a moderate nonpharmaceutical intervention policy results in a 33.6% reduction.

Conclusions

Our findings highlight the potential benefits of pancoronavirus vaccines that offer enhanced and longer-lasting immunity. We emphasize the crucial role of nonpharmaceutical interventions in reducing COVID-19 deaths regardless of virus mutation scenarios. Owing to highly immune evasive and contagious SARS-CoV-2 variants, most scenarios in this study fail to reduce the mortality of COVID-19 to the level of influenza and pneumonia. However, our findings indicate that periodic vaccinations and a threshold nonpharmaceutical intervention policy may succeed in achieving this goal. This indicates the need for caution and vigilance in managing a continuing COVID-19 epidemic.

The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 outcomes: A heterogeneous age-related generalisation of the SEIR model

Successive generalisations of the basic SEIR model have been proposed to accommodate the different needs of the organisations handling the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic and the assessment of the public health measures adopted and named under the common umbrella of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs). So far, these generalisations have not been able to assess the ability of these measures to avoid infection by the SARS-CoV-2 and thus their contribution to contain the spread of the disease. This work proposes a new generalisation of SEIR model and includes a heterogeneous and age-related generation of infections that depends both on a probability that a contact generates the transmission of the disease and a contact rate. The results show (1) thanks to the universal wearing of facial coverings, the probability that a contact provokes the transmission of the disease was reduced by at least 50% and (2) the impact of the other NPI is so significant that otherwise Portugal would have gone into a non-sustainable situation of having 80% of its population infected in the first 300 days of the pandemic. This situation would have led to a number of deaths almost twenty times higher than the number that was actually recorded by December 26th, 2020. Moreover, the results suggest that even if the requirement of universal wearing of facial coverings was adopted sooner jointly with closing workplaces and resorting to teleworking would have postponed the peak of the incidence, altought the epidemic path would have result in a number of infections hardly managed by the National Health System. Complementary, results confirm that (3) the health authorities adopted a conservative approach on the criteria to consider an infected individual not infective any longer; and (4) the most effective NPIs and stringency levels either impacting on self-protection against infection or reducing the contacts that would eventually result in infection are, in decreasing order of importance, the use of Facial coverings, Workplace closing and Stay at home requirements.

Effect of time-varying adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions on the occurrence of multiple epidemic waves: A modeling study

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) play a central role in infectious disease outbreak response and control. Their usefulness cannot be overstated, especially during the early phases of a new epidemic when vaccines and effective treatments are not available yet. These interventions can be very effective in curtailing the spread of infectious diseases when adequately implemented and sufficiently adopted by the public. However, NPIs can be very disruptive, and the socioeconomic and cultural hardships that come with their implementation interfere with both the ability and willingness of affected populations to adopt such interventions. This can lead to reduced and unsteady adherence to NPIs, making disease control more challenging to achieve. Deciphering this complex interaction between disease dynamics, NPI stringency, and NPI adoption would play a critical role in informing disease control strategies. In this work, we formulate a general-purpose model that integrates government-imposed control measures and public adherence into a deterministic compartmental epidemic model and study its properties. By combining imitation dynamics and the health belief model to encode the unsteady nature of NPI adherence, we investigate how temporal variations in NPI adherence levels affect the dynamics and control of infectious diseases. Among the results, we note the occurrence of multiple epidemic waves as a result of temporal variations in NPI adherence and a trade-off between the stringency of control measures and adherence. Additionally, our results suggest that interventions that aim at increasing public adherence to NPIs are more beneficial than implementing more stringent measures. Our findings highlight the necessity of taking the socioeconomic and cultural realities of affected populations into account when devising public health interventions.