Verbal autopsy-assigned causes of death among adults being investigated for TB in South Africa

Are all tuberculosis deaths correctly attributed due to tuberculosis? Analysis of causes of death (COD) using verbal autopsy: A cross-sectional study in Puducherry

Background

State Task Force National Tuberculosis Elimination Programme (STF-NTEP) wanted to ascertain the cause of death of tuberculosis (TB) patients was due to TB. Hence, this study was done to determine the cause of death among TB patients using verbal autopsy.

Material and Method

The community-based cross-sectional study was conducted among the closest caregivers of the reported TB death cases using a verbal autopsy questionnaire. A list of TB deaths was extracted from Puducherry's State Tuberculosis Office (STO). The VA questionnaires were reviewed by two trained faculties and experts independently who were also asked to code the cause of death according to the International Classification of Diseases - 10th Revision. Data were analysed using the SPSS software receiver operator curve (ROC) curve and Cohen's kappa statistics with 95% confidence interval (CI) were applied to compare agreement between the raters.

Results

Out of 307 TB deaths, 143 were contacted and the remaining were migrated, missing or not available. Among them 34.9% of the declared TB deaths are not due to TB. Cohen's kappa = 0.4; 95% CI: (0.858-0.985) showed moderate agreement between the raters. Experts' review was used as a reference standard to compare rater agreements. The Predictive accuracy of Rater 2 (area under the curve [AUC] -0.953; P value <0.001) was slightly higher than Rater 1 (AUC -0.942; P value <0.001).

Conclusion

The findings of the study have clearly indicated that 34.9% of the declared TB deaths are not due to TB.

Comparison of the Causes of Death Identified Using Automated Verbal Autopsy and Complete Autopsy among Brought-in-Dead Cases at a Tertiary Hospital in Sub-Sahara Africa

BACKGROUND

Over one-third of deaths recorded at health facilities in Zambia are brought in dead (BID) and the causes of death (CODs) are not fully analyzed. The use of automated verbal autopsy (VA) has reportedly determined the CODs of more BID cases than the death notification form issued by the hospital. However, the validity of automated VA is yet to be fully investigated.

OBJECTIVES

To compare the CODs identified by automated VA with those by complete autopsy to examine the validity of a VA tool.

METHODS

The study site was the tertiary hospital in the capital city of Zambia. From September 2019 to January 2020, all BID cases aged 13 years and older brought to the hospital during the daytime on weekdays were enrolled in this study. External COD cases were excluded. The deceased's relatives were interviewed using the 2016 World Health Organization VA questionnaire. The data were analyzed using InterVA, an automated VA tool, to determine the CODs, which were compared with the results of complete autopsies.

RESULTS

A total of 63 cases were included. The CODs of 50 BID cases were determined by both InterVA and complete autopsies. The positive predictive value of InterVA was 22%. InterVA determined the CODs correctly in 100% cases of maternal CODs, 27.5% cases of noncommunicable disease CODs, and 5.3% cases of communicable disease CODs. Using the three broader disease groups, 56.0% cases were classified in the same groups by both methods.

CONCLUSION

While the positive predictive value was low, more than half of the cases were categorized into the same broader categories. However, there are several limitations in this study, including small sample size. More research is required to investigate the factors leading to discrepancies between the CODs determined by both methods to optimize the use of automated VA in Zambia.

Social and demographic correlates of cardiovascular mortality in the Kassena-Nankana districts of Ghana: a verbal post-mortem analysis

BACKGROUND

The burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Ghana is rising, but details on its epidemiology are scarce. We sought to quantify mortality due to CVD in two districts in rural Ghana using verbal post-mortem (VPM) data.

METHODS

We conducted a proportional sub-hazards analysis of 10 232 deaths in the Kassena-Nankana East and West districts from 2005 to 2012, to determine adult mortality attributed to CVD over time. We stratified results by age, gender and socio-economic status (SES), and compared CVD mortality among SES and gender strata over time. A competing risk model estimated the cumulative effect of eliminating CVD from the area.

RESULTS

From 2005 to 2012, CVD mortality more than doubled overall, from 0.51 deaths for every 1000 person-years in 2005 to 1.08 per 1000 person-years in 2012. Mortality peaked in 2008 at 1.23 deaths per 1000 person-years. Increases were comparable in men (2.0) and women (2.3), but greater among the poorest residents (3.3) than the richest (1.3), and among persons aged 55-69 years (2.1) than those aged ≥70 years (1.8). By 2012, male and female CVD mortality was highest in middle-SES persons. We project that eliminating CVD would increase the number of individuals reaching age 73 years from 35% to 40%, adding 1.6 years of life expectancy.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden of CVD on overall mortality in the Upper East Region is substantial and markedly increasing. CVD mortality has especially increased in lower-income persons and persons in middle age. Further initiatives for the surveillance and control of CVD in these vulnerable populations are needed.

Mortality and risk of tuberculosis among people living with HIV in whom TB was initially ruled out

Tuberculosis (TB) misdiagnosis remains a public health concern, especially among people living with HIV (PLHIV), given the high mortality associated with missed TB diagnoses. The main objective of this study was to describe the all-cause mortality, TB incidence rates and their associated risk factors in a cohort of PLHIV with presumptive TB in whom TB was initially ruled out. We retrospectively followed a cohort of PLHIV with presumptive TB over a 2 year-period in a rural district in Southern Mozambique. During the study period 382 PLHIV were followed-up. Mortality rate was 6.8/100 person-years (PYs) (95% CI 5.2-9.2) and TB incidence rate was 5.4/100 PYs (95% CI 3.9-7.5). Thirty-six percent of deaths and 43% of TB incident cases occurred in the first 12 months of the follow up. Mortality and TB incidence rates in the 2-year period after TB was initially ruled out was very high. The TB diagnostic work-up and linkage to HIV care should be strengthened to decrease TB burden and all-cause mortality among PLHIV with presumptive TB.

Unmasking the hidden tuberculosis mortality burden in a large post mortem study in Maputo Central Hospital, Mozambique

Sensitive tools are needed to accurately establish the diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) at death, especially in low-income countries. The objective of this study was to evaluate the burden of TB in a series of patients who died in a tertiary referral hospital in sub-Saharan Africa using an in-house real time PCR (TB-PCR) and the Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra (Xpert Ultra) assay.

Complete diagnostic autopsies were performed in a series of 223 deaths (56.5% being HIV-positive), including 54 children, 57 maternal deaths and 112 other adults occurring at the Maputo Central Hospital, Mozambique. TB-PCR was performed in all lung, cerebrospinal fluid and central nervous system samples in HIV-positive patients. All samples positive for TB-PCR or showing histological findings suggestive of TB were analysed with the Xpert Ultra assay.

TB was identified as the cause of death in 31 patients: three out of 54 (6%) children, five out of 57 (9%)maternal deaths and 23 out of 112 (21%) other adults. The sensitivity of the main clinical diagnosis to detect TB as the cause of death was 19.4% (95% CI 7.5–37.5) and the specificity was 97.4% (94.0–99.1) compared to autopsy findings. Concomitant TB (TB disease in a patient dying of other causes) was found in 31 additional cases. Xpert Ultra helped to identify 15 cases of concomitant TB. In 18 patients, Mycobacterium tuberculosis DNA was identified by TB-PCR and Xpert Ultra in the absence of histological TB lesions. Overall, 62 (27.8%) cases had TB disease at death and 80 (35.9%) had TB findings.

The use of highly sensitive, easy to perform molecular tests in complete diagnostic autopsies may contribute to identifying TB cases at death that would have otherwise been missed. Routine use of these tools in certain diagnostic algorithms for hospitalised patients needs to be considered. Clinical diagnosis showed poor sensitivity for the diagnosis of TB at death.

This study shows the usefulness of molecular assays in ascertaining TB diagnosis at death. It questions the information of clinical diagnoses obtained from hospital registries as a reliable tool for TB mortality estimation.http://bit.ly/2KrzTBJ

What is the true tuberculosis mortality burden? Differences in estimates by the World Health Organization and the Global Burden of Disease study

Background

The World Health Organization (WHO) and the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) periodically provide global estimates of tuberculosis (TB) mortality. We compared the 2015 WHO and GBD TB mortality estimates and explored which factors might drive the differences.

Methods

We extracted the number of estimated TB-attributable deaths, disaggregated by age, HIV status, sex and country from publicly available WHO and GBD datasets for the year 2015. We 'standardized' differences between sources by adjusting each country's difference in absolute number of deaths by the average number of deaths estimated by both sources.

Results

For 195 countries with estimates from both institutions, WHO estimated 1 768 482 deaths attributable to TB, whereas GBD estimated 1 322 916 deaths, a difference of 445 566 deaths or 29% of the average of the two estimates. The countries with the largest absolute differences in deaths were Nigeria (216 621), Bangladesh (49 863) and Tanzania (38 272). The standardized difference was not associated with HIV prevalence, prevalence of multidrug resistance or global region, but did show correlation with the case detection rate as estimated by WHO [r = -0.37, 95% confidence interval (CI): -049; -0.24] or, inversely, with case detection rate based on GBD data (r = 0.44, 95% CI: 0.31; 0.54). Countries with a recent national prevalence survey had higher standardized differences (higher estimates by WHO) than those without (P = 0.006). After exclusion of countries with recent prevalence surveys, the overall correlation between both estimates was r = 0.991.

Conclusions

A few countries account for the large global discrepancy in TB mortality estimates. The differences are due to the methodological approaches used by WHO and GBD. The use and interpretation of prevalence survey data and case detection rates seem to play a role in the observed differences.

Reporting of ethics in peer-reviewed verbal autopsy studies: a systematic review

Introduction

Verbal autopsy (VA) is a method that determines the cause of death by interviewing a relative of the deceased about the events occurring before the death, in regions where medical certification of cause of death is incomplete. This paper aims to review the ethical standards reported in peer-reviewed VA studies.

Methods

A systematic review of Medline and Ovid was conducted by two independent researchers. Data were extracted and analysed for articles based on three key areas: Institutional Review Board (IRB) clearance and consenting process; data collection and management procedures, including: time between death and interview; training and education of interviewer, confidentiality of data and data security; and declarations of funding and conflict of interest.

Results

The review identified 802 articles, of which 288 were included. The review found that 48% all the studies reported having IRB clearance or obtaining consent of participants. The interviewer training and education levels were reported in 62% and 21% of the articles, respectively. Confidentiality of data was reported for 14% of all studies, 18% did not report the type of respondent interviewed and 51% reported time between death and the interview for the VA. Data security was reported in 8% of all studies. Funding was declared in 63% of all studies and conflict of interest in 42%. Reporting of all these variables increased over time.

Conclusions

The results of this systematic review show that although there has been an increase in ethical reporting for VA studies, there still remains a large gap in reporting.

Completeness and reliability of mortality data in Viet Nam: Implications for the national routine health management information system

BACKGROUND

Mortality statistics form a crucial component of national Health Management Information Systems (HMIS). However, there are limitations in the availability and quality of mortality data at national level in Viet Nam. This study assessed the completeness of recorded deaths and the reliability of recorded causes of death (COD) in the A6 death registers in the national routine HMIS in Viet Nam.

METHODOLOGY AND FINDINGS

1477 identified deaths in 2014 were reviewed in two provinces. A capture-recapture method was applied to assess the completeness of the A6 death registers. 1365 household verbal autopsy (VA) interviews were successfully conducted, and these were reviewed by physicians who assigned multiple and underlying cause of death (UCOD). These UCODs from VA were then compared with the CODs recorded in the A6 death registers, using kappa scores to assess the reliability of the A6 death register diagnoses. The overall completeness of the A6 death registers in the two provinces was 89.3% (95%CI: 87.8-90.8). No COD recorded in the A6 death registers demonstrated good reliability. There is very low reliability in recording of cardiovascular deaths (kappa for stroke = 0.47 and kappa for ischaemic heart diseases = 0.42) and diabetes (kappa = 0.33). The reporting of deaths due to road traffic accidents, HIV and some cancers are at a moderate level of reliability with kappa scores ranging between 0.57-0.69 (p<0.01). VA methods identify more specific COD than the A6 death registers, and also allow identification of multiple CODs.

CONCLUSIONS

The study results suggest that data completeness in HMIS A6 death registers in the study sample of communes was relatively high (nearly 90%), but triangulation with death records from other sources would improve the completeness of this system. Further, there is an urgent need to enhance the reliability of COD recorded in the A6 death registers, for which VA methods could be effective. Focussed consultation among stakeholders is needed to develop a suitable mechanism and process for integrating VA methods into the national routine HMIS A6 death registers in Viet Nam.

Empiric tuberculosis treatment in South African primary health care facilities - for whom, where, when and why: Implications for the development of tuberculosis diagnostic tests

Background

The extent and circumstances under which empiric tuberculosis (TB) treatment (treatment without microbiological confirmation at treatment initiation) is administered in primary health care settings in South Africa are not well described.

Methods

We used data from a pragmatic evaluation of Xpert MTB/RIF in which persons undergoing TB investigations by PHC nurses were followed for six months. Following Xpert or smear-microscopy at enrolment, investigations for tuberculosis were undertaken at the discretion of health care workers. We identified persons whose TB treatment was initiated empirically (no microbiological confirmation at time of treatment initiation at a primary health care facility) and describe pathways to treatment initiation.

Results

Of 4665 evaluable participants, 541 persons were initiated on treatment of whom 167 (31%) had negative sputum tests at enrolment. Amongst these 167, the median number of participant visits to health care providers prior to treatment initiation was 3 (interquartile range [IQR] 2–4). Chest radiography, sputum culture or hospital referral was done in 106/167 (63%). Reasons for TB treatment start were: 1) empiric (n = 82, 49%); 2) a positive laboratory test (n = 49, 29%); 3) referral and treatment start at a higher level of care (n = 28, 17%); and 4) indeterminable (n = 8, 5%). Empiric treatment accounted for 15% (82/541) of all TB treatment initiations and 1.7% (82/4665) of all persons undergoing TB investigations. Chest radiography findings compatible with TB (63/82 [77%]) were the basis for treatment initiation amongst the majority of empirically treated participants. Microbiological confirmation of TB was subsequently obtained for 11/82 (13%) empirically-treated participants. Median time to empiric treatment start was 3.9 weeks (IQR 1.4–11 weeks) after enrolment.

Conclusion

Uncommon prescription of empiric TB treatment with reliance on chest radiography in a nurse-managed programme underscores the need for highly sensitive TB diagnostics suitable for point-of-care, and strong health systems to support TB diagnosis in this setting.