HIV-1 transmission between MSM and heterosexuals, and increasing proportions of circulating recombinant forms in the Nordic Countries

Characterization of Human Immunodeficiency Virus-1 Transmission Clusters and Transmitted Drug-Resistant Mutations in Croatia from 2019 to 2022

Molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 infection is challenging due to the highly diverse HIV-genome. We investigated the genetic diversity and prevalence of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) followed by phylogenetic analysis in 270 HIV-1 infected, treatment-naïve individuals from Croatia in the period 2019-2022. The results of this research confirmed a high overall prevalence of TDR of 16.7%. Resistance to nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), non-nucleoside RTIs (NNRTIs), and protease inhibitors (PIs) was found in 9.6%, 7.4%, and 1.5% of persons, respectively. No resistance to integrase strand-transfer inhibitors (INSTIs) was found. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that 173/229 sequences (75.5%) were part of transmission clusters, and the largest identified was T215S, consisting of 45 sequences. Forward transmission was confirmed in several clusters. We compared deep sequencing (DS) with Sanger sequencing (SS) on 60 randomly selected samples and identified additional surveillance drug resistance mutations (SDRMs) in 49 of them. Our data highlight the need for baseline resistance testing in treatment-naïve persons. Although no major INSTIs were found, monitoring of SDRMs to INSTIs should be continued due to the extensive use of first- and second-generation INSTIs.

Molecular networks reveal complex interactions with MSM in heterosexual women living with HIV-1 who play peripheral roles in Guangzhou, China

BACKGROUND

With the number of newly diagnosed HIV-positive heterosexual women increasing yearly, it is urgent to understand HIV-1 transmission among heterosexual women in Guangzhou, China.

METHODS

HIV-1 pol sequences were obtained from people living with HIV-1 during 2008 to 2017 in Guangzhou, China. A molecular network was constructed using HIV-1 TRAnsmission Cluster Engine with 1.5% genetic distance. Potential linkage and centrality metric were measured with Cytoscape. Transmission pathways between heterosexual women and men who have sex with men (MSM) were determined using Bayesian phylogenetic analysis.

RESULTS

In the network, 1799 (62.6%) MSM, 692 (24.1%) heterosexual men and 141 (4.9%) heterosexual women formed 259 clusters. Molecular clusters including MSM and heterosexuals were more likely to form larger networks (P<0.001). Nearly half of the heterosexual women (45.4%) were linked to heterosexual men and 17.7% to MSM, but only 0.9% of MSM were linked to heterosexual women. Thirty-three (23.4%) heterosexual women linked to at least one MSM node and were in peripheral role. Compared to general heterosexual women, the proportion of heterosexual women linked to MSM infected with CRF55_01B (P<0.001) and CRF07_BC (P<0.001) was higher than that of other subtypes, and the proportion diagnosed between 2012-2017 (P=0.001) was higher than that in 2008-2012. In MCC trees, 63.6% (21/33) of the heterosexual women differentiated from the heterosexual evolutionary branch, while 36.4% (12/33) differentiated from the MSM evolutionary branch.

CONCLUSION

Heterosexual women living with HIV-1 were mainly linked to heterosexual men and were in peripheral positions in the molecular network. The role of heterosexual women in HIV-1 transmission was limited, but the interaction between MSM and heterosexual women were complex. Awareness of the HIV-1 infection status of sexual partners and active HIV-1 detection are needed for women.

Transmission Clusters, Predominantly Associated With Men Who Have Sex With Men, Play a Main Role in the Propagation of HIV-1 in Northern Spain (2013–2018)

Viruses of HIV-1-infected individuals whose transmission is related group phylogenetically in transmission clusters (TCs). The study of the phylogenetic relations of these viruses and the factors associated with these individuals is essential to analyze the HIV-1 epidemic. In this study, we examine the role of TCs in the epidemiology of HIV-1 infection in Galicia and the Basque County, two regions of northern Spain. A total of 1,158 HIV-1-infected patients from both regions with new diagnoses (NDs) in 2013–2018 were included in the study. Partial HIV-1 pol sequences were analyzed phylogenetically by approximately maximum-likelihood with FastTree 2. In this analysis, 10,687 additional sequences from samples from HIV-1-infected individuals collected in Spain in 1999–2019 were also included to assign TC membership and to determine TCs’ sizes. TCs were defined as those which included viruses from ≥4 individuals, at least 50% of them Spaniards, and with ≥0.95 Shimodaira-Hasegawa-like node support in the phylogenetic tree. Factors associated to TCs were evaluated using odds ratios (OR) and their 95% CI. Fifty-one percent of NDs grouped in 162 TCs. Male patients (OR: 2.6; 95% CI: 1.5–4.7) and men having sex with men (MSM; OR: 2.1; 95% CI: 1.4–3.2) had higher odds of belonging to a TC compared to female and heterosexual patients, respectively. Individuals from Latin America (OR: 0.3; 95% CI: 0.2–0.4), North Africa (OR: 0.4; 95% CI: 0.2–1.0), and especially Sub-Saharan Africa (OR: 0.02; 95% CI: 0.003–0.2) were inversely associated to belonging to TCs compared to native Spaniards. Our results show that TCs are important components of the HIV-1 epidemics in the two Spanish regions studied, where transmission between MSM is predominant. The majority of migrants were infected with viruses not belonging to TCs that expand in Spain. Molecular epidemiology is essential to identify local peculiarities of HIV-1 propagation. The early detection of TCs and prevention of their expansion, implementing effective control measures, could reduce HIV-1 infections.

Phylogeographic Assessment Reveals Geographic Sources of HIV-1 Dissemination Among Men Who Have Sex With Men in Kenya

HIV-1 transmission dynamics involving men who have sex with men (MSM) in Africa are not well understood. We investigated the rates of HIV-1 transmission between MSM across three regions in Kenya: Coast, Nairobi, and Nyanza. We analyzed 372 HIV-1 partial pol sequences sampled during 2006-2019 from MSM in Coast (N = 178, 47.9%), Nairobi (N = 137, 36.8%), and Nyanza (N = 57, 15.3%) provinces in Kenya. Maximum-likelihood (ML) phylogenetics and Bayesian inference were used to determine HIV-1 clusters, evolutionary dynamics, and virus migration rates between geographic regions. HIV-1 sub-subtype A1 (72.0%) was most common followed by subtype D (11.0%), unique recombinant forms (8.9%), subtype C (5.9%), CRF 21A2D (0.8%), subtype G (0.8%), CRF 16A2D (0.3%), and subtype B (0.3%). Forty-six clusters (size range 2-20 sequences) were found-half (50.0%) of which had evidence of extensive HIV-1 mixing among different provinces. Data revealed an exponential increase in infections among MSM during the early-to-mid 2000s and stable or decreasing transmission dynamics in recent years (2017-2019). Phylogeographic inference showed significant (Bayes factor, BF > 3) HIV-1 dissemination from Coast to Nairobi and Nyanza provinces, and from Nairobi to Nyanza province. Strengthening HIV-1 prevention programs to MSM in geographic locations with higher HIV-1 prevalence among MSM (such as Coast and Nairobi) may reduce HIV-1 incidence among MSM in Kenya.

Quantifying rates of HIV-1 flow between risk groups and geographic locations in Kenya: A country-wide phylogenetic study

In Kenya, HIV-1 key populations including men having sex with men (MSM), people who inject drugs (PWID) and female sex workers (FSW) are thought to significantly contribute to HIV-1 transmission in the wider, mostly heterosexual (HET) HIV-1 transmission network. However, clear data on HIV-1 transmission dynamics within and between these groups are limited. We aimed to empirically quantify rates of HIV-1 flow between key populations and the HET population, as well as between different geographic regions to determine HIV-1 'hotspots' and their contribution to HIV-1 transmission in Kenya. We used maximum-likelihood phylogenetic and Bayesian inference to analyse 4058 HIV-1 pol sequences (representing 0.3 per cent of the epidemic in Kenya) sampled 1986-2019 from individuals of different risk groups and regions in Kenya. We found 89 per cent within-risk group transmission and 11 per cent mixing between risk groups, cyclic HIV-1 exchange between adjoining geographic provinces and strong evidence of HIV-1 dissemination from (i) West-to-East (i.e. higher-to-lower HIV-1 prevalence regions), and (ii) heterosexual-to-key populations. Low HIV-1 prevalence regions and key populations are sinks rather than major sources of HIV-1 transmission in Kenya. Targeting key populations in Kenya needs to occur concurrently with strengthening interventions in the general epidemic.

Transmitted HIV-1 is more virulent in heterosexual individuals than men-who-have-sex-with-men

Transmission bottlenecks introduce selection pressures on HIV-1 that vary with the mode of transmission. Recent studies on small cohorts have suggested that stronger selection pressures lead to fitter transmitted/founder (T/F) strains. Manifestations of this selection bias at the population level have remained elusive. Here, we analysed early CD4 cell count measurements reported from ∼340,000 infected heterosexual individuals (HET) and men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM), across geographies, ethnicities and calendar years. The reduction in CD4 counts early in infection is reflective of the virulence of T/F strains. MSM and HET use predominant modes of transmission, namely, anal and penile-vaginal, with among the largest differences in the selection pressures at transmission across modes. Further, in most geographies, the groups show little inter-mixing, allowing for the differential selection bias to be sustained and amplified. We found that the early reduction in CD4 counts was consistently greater in HET than MSM (P<0.05). To account for inherent variations in baseline CD4 counts, we constructed a metric to quantify the extent of progression to AIDS as the ratio of the reduction in measured CD4 counts from baseline and the reduction associated with AIDS. We found that this progression corresponding to the early CD4 measurements was ∼68% for MSM and ∼87% for HET on average (P<10⁻⁴; Cohen’s d, d_s = 0.36), reflecting the more severe disease caused by T/F strains in HET than MSM at the population level. Interestingly, the set-point viral load was not different between the groups (d_s<0.12), suggesting that MSM were more tolerant and not more resistant to their T/F strains than HET. This difference remained when we controlled for confounding factors using multivariable regression. We concluded that the different selection pressures at transmission have resulted in more virulent T/F strains in HET than MSM. These findings have implications for our understanding of HIV-1 pathogenesis, evolution, and epidemiology.

HIV-1 encounters a key bottleneck at the time of its transmission from one individual to another. This transmission bottleneck can differ between modes of transmission. The stronger this bottleneck is, the more fit the virus has to be to be successfully transmitted. Accordingly, the transmitted/founder (T/F) strains of HIV-1 may have different fitness in risk groups that use different modes of transmission. While studies on small cohorts do support this notion, observations of the manifestations of this differential selection bias at the population level have been lacking. Here, we examined reported early CD4 count measurements from ∼340,000 HET and MSM, across geographies, ethnicities, and calendar years. Early CD4 counts are a measure of the severity of the infection due to T/F strains. HET and MSM transmit predominantly via penile-vaginal and anal modes, respectively, and do not inter-mix significantly. Remarkably, we found that HET consistently had lower early CD4 counts than MSM. This difference could not be attributed to potential confounding factors, such as set-point viral load. The difference thus provided evidence that T/F strains had evolved to be more virulent in HET than MSM at the population level. Intervention strategies may benefit from accounting for this difference between risk groups.

Molecular Epidemiology and Transmission Dynamics of the HIV-1 Epidemic in Ethiopia: Epidemic Decline Coincided With Behavioral Interventions Before ART Scale-Up

Background

Ethiopia is one of the sub-Saharan countries hit hard by the HIV epidemic. Previous studies have shown that subtype C dominates the Ethiopian HIV-1 epidemic, but the evolutionary and temporal dynamics of HIV-1 in Ethiopia have not been closely scrutinized. Understanding the evolutionary and epidemiological pattern of HIV is vital to monitor the spread, evaluate and implement HIV prevention strategies.

Methods

We analyzed 1,276 Ethiopian HIV-1 subtype C polymerase (pol sequences), including 144 newly generated sequences, collected from different parts of the country from 1986 to 2017. We employed state-of-art maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylodynamic analyses to comprehensively describe the evolutionary dynamics of the HIV-1 epidemic in Ethiopia. We used Bayesian phylodynamic models to estimate the dynamics of the effective population size (Ne) and reproductive numbers (Re) through time for the HIV epidemic in Ethiopia.

Results

Our analysis revealed that the Ethiopian HIV-1 epidemic originated from two independent introductions at the beginning of the 1970s and 1980s from eastern and southern African countries, respectively, followed by epidemic growth reaching its maximum in the early 1990s. We identified three large clusters with a majority of Ethiopian sequences. Phylodynamic analyses revealed that all three clusters were characterized by high transmission rates during the early epidemic, followed by a decline in HIV-1 transmissions after 1990. Re was high (4–6) during the earlier time of the epidemic but dropped significantly and remained low (Re &lt; 1) after the mid-1990. Similarly, with an expected shift in time, the effective population size (Ne) steadily increased until the beginning of 2000, followed by a decline and stabilization until recent years. The phylodynamic analyses corroborated the modeled UNAIDS incidence and prevalence estimates.

Conclusion

The rapid decline in the HIV epidemic took place a decade before introducing antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia and coincided with early behavioral, preventive, and awareness interventions implemented in the country. Our findings highlight the importance of behavioral interventions and antiretroviral therapy scale-up to halt and maintain HIV transmissions at low levels (Re &lt; 1). The phylodynamic analyses provide epidemiological insights not directly available using standard surveillance and may inform the adjustment of public health strategies in HIV prevention in Ethiopia.

Variable Proportions of Phylogenetic Clustering and Low Levels of Antiviral Drug Resistance among the Major HBV Sub-Genotypes in the Middle East and North Africa

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection remains a major public health threat in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Phylogenetic analysis of HBV can be helpful to study the putative transmission links and patterns of inter-country spread of the virus. The objectives of the current study were to analyze the HBV genotype/sub-genotype (SGT) distribution, reverse transcriptase (RT), and surface (S) gene mutations and to investigate the domestic transmission of HBV in the MENA. All HBV molecular sequences collected in the MENA were retrieved from GenBank as of 30 April 2021. Determination of genotypes/SGT, RT, and S mutations were based on the Geno2pheno (hbv) 2.0 online tool. For the most prevalent HBV SGTs, maximum likelihood phylogenetic analysis was conducted to identify the putative phylogenetic clusters, with approximate Shimodaira-Hasegawa-like likelihood ratio test values ≥ 0.90, and genetic distance cut-off values ≤ 0.025 substitutions/site as implemented in Cluster Picker. The total number of HBV sequences used for genotype/SGT determination was 4352 that represented a total of 20 MENA countries, with a majority from Iran (n = 2103, 48.3%), Saudi Arabia (n = 503, 11.6%), Tunisia (n = 395, 9.1%), and Turkey (n = 267, 6.1%). Genotype D dominated infections in the MENA (86.6%), followed by genotype A (4.1%), with SGT D1 as the most common in 14 MENA countries and SGT D7 dominance in the Maghreb. The highest prevalence of antiviral drug resistance was observed against lamivudine (4.5%) and telbivudine (4.3%). The proportion of domestic phylogenetic clustering was the highest for SGT D7 (61.9%), followed by SGT D2 (28.2%) and genotype E (25.7%). The largest fraction of domestic clusters with evidence of inter-country spread within the MENA was seen in SGT D7 (81.3%). Small networks (containing 3-14 sequences) dominated among domestic phylogenetic clusters. Specific patterns of HBV genetic diversity were seen in the MENA with SGT D1 dominance in the Levant, Iran, and Turkey; SGT D7 dominance in the Maghreb; and extensive diversity in Saudi Arabia and Egypt. A low prevalence of lamivudine, telbivudine, and entecavir drug resistance was observed in the region, with almost an absence of resistance to tenofovir and adefovir. Variable proportions of phylogenetic clustering indicated prominent domestic transmission of SGT D7 (particularly in the Maghreb) and relatively high levels of virus mobility in SGT D1.

Phylogenetic and Drug-Resistance Analysis of HIV-1 Sequences From an Extensive Paediatric HIV-1 Outbreak in Larkana, Pakistan

Introduction

In April 2019, an HIV-1 outbreak among children occurred in Larkana, Pakistan, affecting more than a thousand children. It was assumed that the outbreak originated from a single source, namely a doctor at a private health facility. In this study, we performed subtype distribution, phylogenetic and drug-resistance analysis of HIV-1 sequences from 2019 outbreak in Larkana, Pakistan.

Methods

A total of 401 blood samples were collected between April–June 2019, from children infected with HIV-1 aged 0–15 years recruited into a case-control study to investigate the risk factors for HIV-1 transmission. Partial HIV-1 pol sequences were generated from 344 blood plasma samples to determine HIV-1 subtype and drug resistance mutations (DRM). Maximum-likelihood phylogenetics based on outbreak and reference sequences was used to identify transmission clusters and assess the relationship between outbreak and key population sequences between and within the determined clusters. Bayesian analysis was employed to identify the time to the most recent common recent ancestor (tMRCA) of the main Pakistani clusters.

Results

The HIV-1 circulating recombinant form (CRF) 02_AG and subtype A1 were most common among the outbreak sequences. Of the treatment-naïve participants, the two most common mutations were RT: E138A (8%) and RT: K219Q (8%). Four supported clusters within the outbreak were identified, and the median tMRCAs of the Larkana outbreak sequences were estimated to 2016 for both the CRF02_AG and the subtype A1 clusters. Furthermore, outbreak sequences exhibited no phylogenetic mixing with sequences from other high-risk groups of Pakistan.

Conclusion

The presence of multiple clusters indicated a multi-source outbreak, rather than a single source outbreak from a single health practitioner as previously suggested. The multiple introductions were likely a consequence of ongoing transmission within the high-risk groups of Larkana, and it is possible that the so-called Larkana strain was introduced into the general population through poor infection prevention control practices in healthcare settings. The study highlights the need to scale up HIV-1 prevention programmes among key population groups and improving infection prevention control in Pakistan.

The Role of Phylogenetics in Discerning HIV-1 Mixing among Vulnerable Populations and Geographic Regions in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Review

To reduce global HIV-1 incidence, there is a need to understand and disentangle HIV-1 transmission dynamics and to determine the geographic areas and populations that act as hubs or drivers of HIV-1 spread. In Sub-Saharan Africa (sSA), the region with the highest HIV-1 burden, information about such transmission dynamics is sparse. Phylogenetic inference is a powerful method for the study of HIV-1 transmission networks and source attribution. In this review, we assessed available phylogenetic data on mixing between HIV-1 hotspots (geographic areas and populations with high HIV-1 incidence and prevalence) and areas or populations with lower HIV-1 burden in sSA. We searched PubMed and identified and reviewed 64 studies on HIV-1 transmission dynamics within and between risk groups and geographic locations in sSA (published 1995-2021). We describe HIV-1 transmission from both a geographic and a risk group perspective in sSA. Finally, we discuss the challenges facing phylogenetic inference in mixed epidemics in sSA and offer our perspectives and potential solutions to the identified challenges.

Phylodynamic analysis reveals changing transmission dynamics of HIV-1 CRF01_AE in Japan from heterosexuals to men who have sex with men

BACKGROUND

HIV-1 circulating recombinant form (CRF) 01_AE is the second major subtype in Japan. Our previous study indicated that CRF01_AE was predominantly circulating in heterosexuals/injecting drug users (IDUs). With implications of increased CRF01_AE infections among men who have sex with men (MSM), this study sought to investigate whether the transmission dynamics of CRF01_AE infections in Japan have changed.

METHODS

Sequences from 8032 newly diagnosed HIV-1-infected individuals were analysed. For 614 (7.6%) of CRF01_AE cases, clusters were identified and categorised by transmission risks. Median times to the most recent common ancestors (tMRCA) were estimated.

RESULTS

The individuals were predominantly Japanese (64%) and male (72%). MSM became the predominant transmission risk from 2014. Thirty transmission clusters (TCs) and 48 pairs, including 40% of individuals, were identified. MSM were approximately five times more likely to be in a TC compared to heterosexuals, and were the major contributors to TCs. tMRCA data suggest that MSM TCs emerged from 1996 and became predominant around 2000.

CONCLUSIONS

CRF01_AE has spread among MSM, with frequent and continuous cluster formations, and MSM has become the predominant transmission risk. Our study suggested that CRF01_AE transmission has shifted from heterosexuals/IDUs to MSM. Prevention measures targeting key populations should be considered for controlling CRF01_AE spread.

Analysis of the Driving Factors of Active and Rapid Growth Clusters Among CRF07_BC-Infected Patients in a Developed Area in Eastern China

Background

The purpose of this study was to research the molecular transmission and genetic evolutionary characteristics among CRF07_BC-infected patients in a developed area in Eastern China.

Methods

Plasma samples from newly diagnosed HIV-1-positive patients from 2015–2018 and basic demographic and epidemiological information were obtained. Pol sequences from CRF07_BC-infected patients were selected for phylogenetic, molecular transmission network, and Bayesian evolutionary analyses.

Results

Pol sequences were successfully obtained from 258 samples of CRF07_BC. Phylogenetic analysis revealed 2 distinct lineages: lineage 1 (66.3%, 171/258), primarily from men who have sex with men (MSM) and some heterosexual individuals, and lineage 2 (33.7%, 87/258), primarily from heterosexual individuals. Under an optimal genetic distance of 0.01 substitutions/site, 163 individuals (63.2%, 163/258) formed 23 groups comprising 6 clusters and 17 dyads in the networks. A distinctly large and rapidly growing cluster (C1) containing 105 individuals was identified, in which MSM with ≥4 links had quite a high transmission risk (low educational background, active sexual behavior, low sexual protection awareness, etc.). According to Bayesian analyses, most C1 clades formed from 2005 to 2009, most of which were closely geographically related to CRF07_BC epidemic strains from Anhui province.

Conclusions

Here, we elucidated the local transmission characteristics and epidemic pattern of HIV-1 CRF07_BC, revealing that MSM (especially with ≥4 links) may be a significant driver in the formation of active and rapid growth networks in regional CRF07_BC epidemics. Thus, unique region– and risk group–specific transmission network analysis based on a molecular approach can provide critical and insightful information for more effective intervention strategies to limit future HIV-1 transmission.

Dynamics and Dispersal of Local HIV Epidemics Within San Diego and Across The San Diego-Tijuana Border

BACKGROUND

Evolutionary analyses of well-annotated HIV sequence data can provide insights into viral transmission patterns and associated factors. Here, we explored the transmission dynamics of the HIV-1 subtype B epidemic across the San Diego (US) - Tijuana (Mexico) border region to identify factors that could help guide public health policy.

METHODS

HIV pol sequences were collected from people with HIV in San Diego County and from Tijuana between 1996-2018. A multistep phylogenetic approach was used to characterize the dynamics of spread. The contribution of geospatial factors and HIV risk group to the local dynamics were evaluated.

RESULTS

Phylogeographic analyses of the 2,034 sequences revealed an important contribution of local transmission in sustaining the epidemic, as well as a complex viral migration network across the region. Geospatial viral dispersal between San Diego communities occurred predominantly among men-who-have-sex with-men with central San Diego being the main source (34.9%) and recipient (39.5%) of migration events. HIV migration was more frequent from San Diego county towards Tijuana than vice versa. Migrations were best explained by driving time between locations.

CONCLUSION

The US-Mexico border may not be a major barrier to the spread of HIV, which may stimulate coordinated transnational intervention approaches. Whereas a focus on central San Diego has the potential to avert most spread, the substantial viral migration independent of central San Diego shows that county-wide efforts will be more effective. Combined, this work shows that epidemiological information gleaned from pathogen genomes can uncover mechanisms that underlie sustained spread and, in turn, can be a building block of public health decision making.

Inferring transmission heterogeneity using virus genealogies: Estimation and targeted prevention

Spread of HIV typically involves uneven transmission patterns where some individuals spread to a large number of individuals while others to only a few or none. Such transmission heterogeneity can impact how fast and how much an epidemic spreads. Further, more efficient interventions may be achieved by taking such transmission heterogeneity into account. To address these issues, we developed two phylogenetic methods based on virus sequence data: 1) to generally detect if significant transmission heterogeneity is present, and 2) to pinpoint where in a phylogeny high-level spread is occurring. We derive inference procedures to estimate model parameters, including the amount of transmission heterogeneity, in a sampled epidemic. We show that it is possible to detect transmission heterogeneity under a wide range of simulated situations, including incomplete sampling, varying levels of heterogeneity, and including within-host genetic diversity. When evaluating real HIV-1 data from different epidemic scenarios, we found a lower level of transmission heterogeneity in slowly spreading situations and a higher level of heterogeneity in data that included a rapid outbreak, while R0 and Sackin's index (overall tree shape statistic) were similar in the two scenarios, suggesting that our new method is able to detect transmission heterogeneity in real data. We then show by simulations that targeted prevention, where we pinpoint high-level spread using a coalescence measurement, is efficient when sequence data are collected in an ongoing surveillance system. Such phylogeny-guided prevention is efficient under both single-step contact tracing as well as iterative contact tracing as compared to random intervention.

Stable prevalence of transmitted drug resistance mutations and increased circulation of non-B subtypes in antiretroviral-naive chronically HIV-infected patients in 2015/2016 in France

OBJECTIVES

We estimated the prevalence of transmitted-drug-resistance-associated mutations (TDRAMs) in antiretroviral-naive chronically HIV-1-infected patients.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

TDRAMs were sought in samples from 660 diagnosed HIV-1-infected individuals in 2015/2016 in 33 HIV clinical centres. Weighted analyses, considering the number of patients followed in each centre, were used to derive representative estimates of the percentage of individuals with TDRAMs. Results were compared with those of the 2010/2011 survey (n = 661) using the same methodology.

RESULTS

At inclusion, median CD4 cell counts and plasma HIV-1 RNA were 394 and 350/mm3 (P = 0.056) and 4.6 and 4.6 log10 copies/mL (P = 0.360) in the 2010/2011 survey and the 2015/2016 survey, respectively. The frequency of non-B subtypes increased from 42.9% in 2010/2011 to 54.8% in 2015/2016 (P < 0.001), including 23.4% and 30.6% of CRF02_AG (P = 0.004). The prevalence of virus with protease or reverse-transcriptase TDRAMs was 9.0% (95% CI = 6.8-11.2) in 2010/2011 and 10.8% (95% CI = 8.4-13.2) in 2015/2016 (P = 0.269). No significant increase was observed in integrase inhibitor TDRAMs (6.7% versus 9.2%, P = 0.146). Multivariable analysis showed that men infected with the B subtype were the group with the highest risk of being infected with a resistant virus compared with others (adjusted OR = 2.2, 95% CI = 1.3-3.9).

CONCLUSIONS

In France in 2015/2016, the overall prevalence of TDRAMs was 10.8% and stable compared with 9.0% in the 2010/2011 survey. Non-B subtypes dramatically increased after 2010. Men infected with B subtype were the group with the highest risk of being infected with a resistant virus, highlighting the need to re-emphasize safe sex messages.

Evaluation of HIV Transmission Clusters among Natives and Foreigners Living in Italy

We aimed at evaluating the characteristics of HIV-1 molecular transmission clusters (MTCs) among natives and migrants living in Italy, diagnosed between 1998 and 2018. Phylogenetic analyses were performed on HIV-1 polymerase (pol) sequences to characterise subtypes and identify MTCs, divided into small (SMTCs, 2–3 sequences), medium (MMTCs, 4–9 sequences) and large (LMTCs, ≥10 sequences). Among 3499 drug-naïve individuals enrolled in the Italian Cohort Naive Antiretroviral (ICONA) cohort (2804 natives; 695 migrants), 726 (20.8%; 644 natives, 82 migrants) were involved in 228 MTCs (6 LMTCs, 36 MMTCs, 186 SMTCs). Migrants contributed 14.4% to SMTCs, 7.6% to MMTCs and 7.1% to LMTCs, respectively. HIV-1 non-B subtypes were found in 51 MTCs; noteworthy was that non-B infections involved in MTCs were more commonly found in natives (n = 47) than in migrants (n = 4). Factors such as Italian origin, being men who have sex with men (MSM), younger age, more recent diagnosis and a higher CD4 count were significantly associated with MTCs. Our findings show that HIV-1 clustering transmission among newly diagnosed individuals living in Italy is prevalently driven by natives, mainly MSM, with a more recent diagnosis and frequently infected with HIV-1 non-B subtypes. These results can contribute to monitoring of the HIV epidemic and guiding the public health response to prevent new HIV infections.

HIV-1 Transmission Patterns Within and Between Risk Groups in Coastal Kenya

HIV-1 transmission patterns within and between populations at different risk of HIV-1 acquisition in Kenya are not well understood. We investigated HIV-1 transmission networks in men who have sex with men (MSM), injecting drug users (IDU), female sex workers (FSW) and heterosexuals (HET) in coastal Kenya. We used maximum-likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetics to analyse new (N = 163) and previously published (N = 495) HIV-1 polymerase sequences collected during 2005-2019. Of the 658 sequences, 131 (20%) were from MSM, 58 (9%) IDU, 109 (17%) FSW, and 360 (55%) HET. Overall, 206 (31%) sequences formed 61 clusters. Most clusters (85%) consisted of sequences from the same risk group, suggesting frequent within-group transmission. The remaining clusters were mixed between HET/MSM (7%), HET/FSW (5%), and MSM/FSW (3%) sequences. One large IDU-exclusive cluster was found, indicating an independent sub-epidemic among this group. Phylodynamic analysis of this cluster revealed a steady increase in HIV-1 infections among IDU since the estimated origin of the cluster in 1987. Our results suggest mixing between high-risk groups and heterosexual populations and could be relevant for the development of targeted HIV-1 prevention programmes in coastal Kenya.

Molecular network-based intervention brings us closer to ending the HIV pandemic

Precise identification of HIV transmission among populations is a key step in public health responses. However, the HIV transmission network is usually difficult to determine. HIV molecular networks can be determined by phylogenetic approach, genetic distance-based approach, and a combination of both approaches. These approaches are increasingly used to identify transmission networks among populations, reconstruct the history of HIV spread, monitor the dynamics of HIV transmission, guide targeted intervention on key subpopulations, and assess the effects of interventions. Simulation and retrospective studies have demonstrated that these molecular network-based interventions are more cost-effective than random or traditional interventions. However, we still need to address several challenges to improve the practice of molecular network-guided targeting interventions to finally end the HIV epidemic. The data remain limited or difficult to obtain, and more automatic real-time tools are required. In addition, molecular and social networks must be combined, and technical parameters and ethnic issues warrant further studies.

High Prevalence of Sequences Included in Transmission Clusters Within Newly Diagnosed HIV-1 Patients in Southern Spain (2004-2015)

The presence of transmission clusters (TCs) and their epidemiological characteristics in a treatment-naive cohort of HIV-1 patients in southern Spain over a decade (2004-2015) were evaluated. Protease and reverse transcriptase sequences provided by each genotype test were used in the phylogenetic study, performed first by the neighbor-joining method and then confirmed by Bayesian analysis. We collected clinical, immunovirological, and demographic data for all patients included. Our cohort comprised 757 patients, 428 (56.5%) belonging to a TC. Overall, we found 123 TCs, 21 of them comprising five or more individuals and three with ≥10 sequences. Forty-three TCs (35.0%) remained active. The clustered patients were mainly men (92.8%) who had sex with men (MSM) (81.5%), Spanish (80.6%), and young adults (median age at diagnosis of 32.6 years). They had lower percentages of late diagnosis and AIDS cases (42.1% and 13.6%, respectively), whereas the presence of recent seroconverters (31.1%), HIV-1 B subtypes (79.4%), and transmission drug resistance (20.3%) increased within TCs, with regard to not-clustered individuals. Among the TCs of non-B variants, circulating recombinant forms (CRF) were predominant (87.5%), with the highest frequencies for CRF19_cpx (17.0% of non-B subtype sequences in TCs); CRF02_AG (15.9%); and CRF01_AE (9.1%). In conclusion, over half of our cohort was included within a TC. More than a third of TCs found could be considered active transmission events. Belonging to a TC was related to MSM, Spanish origin, recent seroconversion, high prevalence of resistance mutations, and B HIV subtype. Among the non-B genetic forms in TCs, we found a high prevalence of CRF19_cpx, CRF02_AG, and CRF01_AE variants.

Characterisation of HIV-1 Molecular Epidemiology in Nigeria: Origin, Diversity, Demography and Geographic Spread

Nigeria has the highest number of AIDS-related deaths in the world. In this study, we characterised the HIV-1 molecular epidemiology by analysing 1442 HIV-1 pol sequences collected 1999-2014 from four geopolitical zones in Nigeria using state-of-the-art maximum-likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic analyses. The main circulating forms were the circulating recombinant form (CRF) 02_AG (44% of the analysed sequences), CRF43_02G (16%), and subtype G (8%). Twenty-three percent of the sequences represented unique recombinant forms (URFs), whereof 37 (11%) could be grouped into seven potentially novel CRFs. Bayesian phylodynamic analysis suggested that five major Nigerian HIV-1 sub-epidemics were introduced in the 1960s and 1970s, close to the Nigerian Civil War. The analysis also indicated that the number of effective infections decreased in Nigeria after the introduction of free antiretroviral treatment in 2006. Finally, Bayesian phylogeographic analysis suggested gravity-like dynamics in which virus lineages first emerge and expand within large urban centers such as Abuja and Lagos, before migrating towards smaller rural areas. This study provides novel insight into the Nigerian HIV-1 epidemic and may have implications for future HIV-1 prevention strategies in Nigeria and other severely affected countries.

Tracing the Impact of Public Health Interventions on HIV-1 Transmission in Portugal Using Molecular Epidemiology

BACKGROUND

Estimation of temporal changes in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission patterns can help to elucidate the impact of preventive strategies and public health policies.

METHODS

Portuguese HIV-1 subtype B and G pol genetic sequences were appended to global reference data sets to identify country-specific transmission clades. Bayesian birth-death models were used to estimate subtype-specific effective reproductive numbers (Re). Discrete trait analysis (DTA) was used to quantify mixing among transmission groups.

RESULTS

We identified 5 subtype B Portuguese clades (26-79 sequences) and a large monophyletic subtype G Portuguese clade (236 sequences). We estimated that major shifts in HIV-1 transmission occurred around 1999 (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI], 1998-2000) and 2000 (95% BCI, 1998-2001) for subtypes B and G, respectively. For subtype B, Re dropped from 1.91 (95% BCI, 1.73-2.09) to 0.62 (95% BCI,.52-.72). For subtype G, Re decreased from 1.49 (95% BCI, 1.39-1.59) to 0.72 (95% BCI, .63-.8). The DTA suggests that people who inject drugs (PWID) and heterosexuals were the source of most (>80%) virus lineage transitions for subtypes G and B, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The estimated declines in Re coincide with the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy and the scale-up of harm reduction for PWID. Inferred transmission events across transmission groups emphasize the importance of prevention efforts for bridging populations.

A cross-sectional study to characterize local HIV-1 dynamics in Washington, DC using next-generation sequencing

Washington, DC continues to experience a generalized HIV-1 epidemic. We characterized the local phylodynamics of HIV-1 in DC using next-generation sequencing (NGS) data. Viral samples from 68 participants from 2016 through 2017 were sequenced and paired with epidemiological data. Phylogenetic and network inferences, drug resistant mutations (DRMs), subtypes and HIV-1 diversity estimations were completed. Haplotypes were reconstructed to infer transmission clusters. Phylodynamic inferences based on the HIV-1 polymerase (pol) and envelope genes (env) were compared. Higher HIV-1 diversity (n.s.) was seen in men who have sex with men, heterosexual, and male participants in DC. 54.0% of the participants contained at least one DRM. The 40-49 year-olds showed the highest prevalence of DRMs (22.9%). Phylogenetic analysis of pol and env sequences grouped 31.9-33.8% of the participants into clusters. HIV-TRACE grouped 2.9-12.8% of participants when using consensus sequences and 9.0-64.2% when using haplotypes. NGS allowed us to characterize the local phylodynamics of HIV-1 in DC more broadly and accurately, given a better representation of its diversity and dynamics. Reconstructed haplotypes provided novel and deeper phylodynamic insights, which led to networks linking a higher number of participants. Our understanding of the HIV-1 epidemic was expanded with the powerful coupling of HIV-1 NGS data with epidemiological data.

Molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 infection in immigrant population in northern Italy

Human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1) is characterised by a vast genetic diversity classified into distinct phylogenetic strains and recombinant forms. We describe the HIV-1 molecular epidemiology and evolution of 129 consecutive HIV-1 positive migrants living in Milan (northern Italy). Polymerase gene sequences of 116 HIV-1 subtype-B positive patients were aligned with HIV-1 reference sequences (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/) by using MAFFT alignment and edited by using Bioedit software. A maximum likelihood (ML) phylogenetic tree was performed by MEGA7 and was visualised by using FigTree v1.4.3. Of 129 migrants, 35 were born in Europe (28 in Eastern Europe), 70 in the Americas (67 in South America), 15 in Africa and nine in Asia; 76.4% were men who have sex with men (MSM). The serotype HIV-1-B prevailed (89.9%), followed by -C, -F1, -D and -A. Compared with 116 HIV-B patients, the 13 with HIV-non-B showed lower Nadir of CD4+ cell/mmc (P = 0.043), more frequently had sub Saharan origin (38.5 vs. 1.72%, P = 0.0001) and less frequently were MSM (40 vs. 74.5%, P = 0.02). The ML phylogenetic tree of the 116 HIV-1 subtype-B positive patients showed 13 statistically supported nodes (bootstrap > 70%). Most of the sequences included in these nodes have been isolated from male patients from the Americas and the most common risk factor was MSM. The low number of HIV-1 non-B subtype patients did not allow to perform this analysis. These results suggest a shift of HIV-1 prevention projects' focus and a continuous monitoring of HIV-1 molecular epidemiology among entry populations. Prevention efforts based on HIV molecular epidemiology may improve public health surveillance setting.

Prevalence of Non-B HIV-1 Subtypes in North Italy and Analysis of Transmission Clusters Based on Sequence Data Analysis

HIV-1 diversity is increasing in European countries due to immigration flows, as well as travels and human mobility, leading to the circulation of both new viral subtypes and new recombinant forms, with important implications for public health. We analyzed 710 HIV-1 sequences comprising protease and reverse-transcriptase (PR/RT) coding regions, sampled from 2011 to 2017, from naive patients in Spedali Civili Hospital, Brescia, Italy. Subtyping was performed by using a combination of different tools; the phylogenetic analysis with a structured coalescence model and Makarov Chain Monte Carlo was used on the datasets, to determine clusters and evolution. We detected 304 (43%) patients infected with HIV-1 non-B variants, of which only 293 sequences were available, with four pure subtypes and five recombinant forms; subtype F1 (17%) and CRF02_AG (51.1%) were most common. Twenty-five transmission clusters were identified, three of which included >10 patients, belonging to subtype CRF02_AG and subtype F. Most cases of alleged transmission were between heterosexual couples. Probably due to strong migratory flows, we have identified different subtypes with particular patterns of recombination or, as in the case of the subtype G (18/293, 6.1%), to a complete lack of relationship between the sequenced strains, revealing that they are all singletons. Continued HIV molecular surveillance is most important to analyze the dynamics of the boost of transmission clusters in order to implement public health interventions aimed at controlling the HIV epidemic.

Analysis of HIV-1 diversity, primary drug resistance and transmission networks in Croatia

Molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 infection in treatment-naive HIV-1 infected persons from Croatia was investigated. We included 403 persons, representing 92.4% of all HIV-positive individuals entering clinical care in Croatia in 2014–2017. Overall prevalence of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) was estimated at 16.4%. Resistance to nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), non-nucleoside RTI (NNRTIs) and protease inhibitors (PIs) was found in 11.4%, 6.7% and 2.5% of persons, respectively. Triple-class resistance was determined in 2.2% of individuals. In addition, a single case (1.0%) of resistance to integrase strand-transfer inhibitors (InSTIs) was found. Deep sequencing was performed on 48 randomly selected samples and detected additional TDR mutations in 6 cases. Phylogenetic inference showed that 347/403 sequences (86.1%) were part of transmission clusters and identified forward transmission of resistance in Croatia, even that of triple-class resistance. The largest TDR cluster of 53 persons with T215S was estimated to originate in the year 1992. Our data show a continuing need for pre-treatment HIV resistance testing in Croatia. Even though a low prevalence of resistance to InSTI was observed, surveillance of TDR to InSTI should be continued.

Drivers of HIV-1 transmission: The Portuguese case

Background

Portugal has one of the most severe HIV-1 epidemics in Western Europe. Two subtypes circulate in parallel since the beginning of the epidemic. Comparing their transmission patterns and its association with transmitted drug resistance (TDR) is important to pinpoint transmission hotspots and to develop evidence-based treatment guidelines.

Methods

Demographic, clinical and genomic data were collected from 3599 HIV-1 naive patients between 2001 and 2014. Sequences obtained from drug resistance testing were used for subtyping, TDR determination and transmission clusters (TC) analyses.

Results

In Portugal, transmission of subtype B was significantly associated with young males, while transmission of subtype G was associated with older heterosexuals. In Portuguese originated people, there was a decreasing trend both for prevalence of subtype G and for number of TCs in this subtype. The active TCs that were identified (i.e. clusters originated after 2008) were associated with subtype B-infected males residing in Lisbon. TDR was significantly different when comparing subtypes B (10.8% [9.5–12.2]) and G (7.6% [6.4–9.0]) (p = 0.001).

Discussion

TC analyses shows that, in Portugal, the subtype B epidemic is active and fueled by young male patients residing in Lisbon, while transmission of subtype G is decreasing. Despite similar treatment rates for both subtypes in Portugal, TDR is significantly different between subtypes.

Diversity of HIV-1 genotypes and high prevalence of pretreatment drug resistance in newly diagnosed HIV-infected patients in Shanghai, China

Background

Genetic variability and liability to develop drug-resistant mutations are the main characteristics of HIV-1, which can not only increase the risk of antiretroviral treatment (ART) failure, but also can lead to the spread of resistant strains. We aim to investigate the distribution of HIV-1 genotypes and prevalence of pretreatment drug resistance (PDR) in ART-naïve HIV-1 infected patients in Shanghai China.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was performed among the newly diagnosed ART-naive HIV-1 infected patients during the period from January 2017 to November 2017 in Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center. The target fragment of 1316 bp in the pol gene spanning the reverse transcriptase and protease regions was amplified using a nested polymerase chain reaction. HIV-1 genotypes were determined by phylogenetic analysis, and PDR associated mutations were determined according to Stanford University HIV Drug Resistance Database (http://hivdb.stanford.edu/).

Results

We successfully amplified pol gene sequences from blood samples of 317 patients, of whom 95.3% were male, and 68.8% were men who have sex with men. The median age was 33 years; and the median CD4 count was 275 cells/μL. The predominant HIV-1 genotype was circulating recombinant form (CRF) 01_AE (53.0%, 168/317), followed by CRF07_BC (29.7%, 94/317), B (7.6%, 24/317), CRF08_BC (1.9%, 6/317), CRF55_01B (1.9%, 6/317), CRF 59_01B (0.9%, 3/317). In addition, 5% (16/317) HIV-1 strains were identified as other subtypes or CRFs/URFs (unique recombinant forms). The overall prevalence of PDR was 17.4% (55/317). PDR frequency to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI, 16.4%) was much higher than that to nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI, 4.7%) and protease inhibitor (PI, 0.6%). The most common HIV-1 mutation pattern for NNRTI and NRTI were V179D/E (10.1%, 32/317) and M184 V (2.8%, 9/317), respectively. About half (49.1%, 27/55) of the HIV-1 strains with mutation presented as potential low-level resistant to NNRTI attributed to V179D/E.

Conclusion

The distribution of HIV-1 genotypes in Shanghai China is diverse and complex. The high prevalence of PDR highlights the significance of baseline HIV-1 drug resistance testing. Non-NNRTI-containing regimen may be the preferred initial therapy for newly diagnosed HIV-1 patients in Shanghai in the absence of PDR test results.

Diverse Large HIV-1 Non-subtype B Clusters Are Spreading Among Men Who Have Sex With Men in Spain

In Western Europe, the HIV-1 epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) is dominated by subtype B. However, recently, other genetic forms have been reported to circulate in this population, as evidenced by their grouping in clusters predominantly comprising European individuals. Here we describe four large HIV-1 non-subtype B clusters spreading among MSM in Spain. Samples were collected in 9 regions. A pol fragment was amplified from plasma RNA or blood-extracted DNA. Phylogenetic analyses were performed via maximum likelihood, including database sequences of the same genetic forms as the identified clusters. Times and locations of the most recent common ancestors (MRCA) of clusters were estimated with a Bayesian method. Five large non-subtype B clusters associated with MSM were identified. The largest one, of F1 subtype, was reported previously. The other four were of CRF02_AG (CRF02_1; n = 115) and subtypes A1 (A1_1; n = 66), F1 (F1_3; n = 36), and C (C_7; n = 17). Most individuals belonging to them had been diagnosed of HIV-1 infection in the last 10 years. Each cluster comprised viruses from 3 to 8 Spanish regions and also comprised or was related to viruses from other countries: CRF02_1 comprised a Japanese subcluster and viruses from 8 other countries from Western Europe, Asia, and South America; A1_1 comprised viruses from Portugal, United Kingom, and United States, and was related to the A1 strain circulating in Greece, Albania and Cyprus; F1_3 was related to viruses from Romania; and C_7 comprised viruses from Portugal and was related to a virus from Mozambique. A subcluster within CRF02_1 was associated with heterosexual transmission. Near full-length genomes of each cluster were of uniform genetic form. Times of MRCAs of CRF02_1, A1_1, F1_3, and C_7 were estimated around 1986, 1989, 2013, and 1983, respectively. MRCA locations for CRF02_1 and A1_1 were uncertain (however initial expansions in Spain in Madrid and Vigo, respectively, were estimated) and were most probable in Bilbao, Spain, for F1_3 and Portugal for C_7. These results show that the HIV-1 epidemic among MSM in Spain is becoming increasingly diverse through the expansion of diverse non-subtype B clusters, comprising or related to viruses circulating in other countries.

A 28-Year History of HIV-1 Drug Resistance and Transmission in Washington, DC

Washington, DC consistently has one of the highest annual rates of new HIV-1 diagnoses in the United States over the last 10 years. To guide intervention and prevention strategies to combat DC HIV infection, it is helpful to understand HIV transmission dynamics in a historical context. Toward this aim, we conducted a retrospective study (years 1987–2015) of 3,349 HIV pol sequences (1,026 bp) from 1,995 individuals living in the DC area belonging to three different cohorts. We coupled HIV sequence data with clinical information (sex, risk factor, race/ethnicity, viral load, subtype, anti-retroviral regimen) to identify circulating drug resistant mutations (DRM) and transmission clusters and assess their persistence over time. Of the transmission clusters identified in the DC area, 78.0 and 31.7% involved MSM and heterosexuals, respectively. The longest spread of time for a single cluster was 5 years (2007–2012) using a distance-based network inference approach and 27 years (1987–2014) using a maximum likelihood phylogenetic approach. We found eight subtypes and nine recombinants. Genetic diversity increased steadily over time with a slight peak in 2009 and remained constant thereafter until 2015. Nucleotide diversity also increased over time while relative genetic diversity (BEAST) remained relatively steady over the last 28 years with slight increases since 2000 in subtypes B and C. Sequences from individuals on drug therapy contained the highest total number of DRMs (1,104–1,600) and unique DRMs (63–97) and the highest proportion (>20%) of resistant individuals. Heterosexuals (43.94%), MSM (40.13%), and unknown (44.26%) risk factors showed similar prevalence of DRMs, while injection drug users had a lower prevalence (33.33%). Finally, there was a 60% spike in the number of codons with DRMs between 2007 and 2010. Past patterns of HIV transmission and DRM accumulation over time described here will help to predict future efficacy of ART drugs based on DRMs persisting over time and identify risk groups of interest for prevention and intervention efforts within the DC population. Our results show how longitudinal data can help to understand the temporal dynamics of HIV-1 at the local level.

Exploring Evolutionary and Transmission Dynamics of HIV Epidemic in Serbia: Bridging Socio-Demographic With Phylogenetic Approach

Previous molecular studies of Serbian HIV epidemic identified the dominance of subtype B and presence of clusters related HIV-1 transmission, in particular among men who have sex with men (MSM). In order to get a deeper understanding of the complexities of HIV sub-epidemics in Serbia, epidemic trends, temporal origin and phylodynamic characteristics in general population and subpopulations were analyzed by means of mathematical modeling, phylogenetic analysis and latent class analysis (LCA). Fitting of the logistic curve of trends for a cumulative annual number of new HIV cases in 1984–2016, in general population and MSM transmission group, was performed. Both datasets fitted the logistic growth model, showing the early exponential phase of the growth curve. According to the suggested model, in the year 2030, the number of newly diagnosed HIV cases in Serbia will continue to grow, in particular in the MSM transmission group. Further, a detailed phylogenetic analysis was performed on 385 sequences from the period 1997–2015. Identification of transmission clusters, estimation of population growth (Ne), of the effective reproductive number (Re) and time of the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) were estimated employing Bayesian and maximum likelihood methods. A substantial proportion of 53% of subtype B sequences was found within transmission clusters/network. Phylodynamic analysis revealed Re over one during the whole period investigated, with the steepest slopes and a recent tMRCA for MSM transmission group subtype B clades, in line with a growing trend in the number of transmissions in years approaching the end of the study period. Contrary, heterosexual clades in both studied subtypes – B and C – showed modest growth and stagnation. LCA analysis identified five latent classes, with transmission clusters dominantly present in 2/5 classes, linked to MSM transmission living in the capital city and with the high prevalence of co-infection with HBV and/or other STIs.Presented findings imply that HIV epidemic in Serbia is still in the exponential growth phase, in particular, related to the MSM transmission, with estimated steep growth curve until 2030. The obtained results imply that an average new HIV patient in Serbia is a young man with concomitant sexually transmitted infection.

Insights on transmission of HIV from phylogenetic analysis to locally optimize HIV prevention strategies

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Phylogenetic analysis can identify transmission networks by clustering genetically related HIV genotypes that are routinely collected. In this study, we will review phylogenetic insights gained on transmission of HIV and phylogenetically optimized HIV prevention strategies.

RECENT FINDINGS

Phylogenetic analysis reports that HIV transmission varies by geographical region and by route of transmission. In high-income countries, HIV is predominantly transmitted between recently infected MSM who live in the same country. In rural Uganda, transmission of HIV is frequently between different communities. Age-discrepant transmission has been reported across the world. Four studies have used phylogenetic optimization of HIV prevention. Three studies predict that immediate treatment after diagnosis would have prevented 19-42% of infections, and that preexposure prophylaxis would have prevented 66% of infections. One phylogenetic study guided a public health response to an actively ongoing HIV outbreak. Phylogenetic clustering requires a dense sample of patients and small time-gaps between infection and diagnosis.

SUMMARY

Phylogenetic analysis can be an important tool to identify a local strategy that prevents most infections. Future studies that use phylogenetic analysis for optimizing HIV prevention strategies should also include cost-effectiveness so that the most cost-effective prevention method is identified.

The Changing Epidemiological Profile of HIV-1 Subtype B Epidemic in Ukraine

While HIV-1 subtype B has caused a large epidemic in the Western world, its transmission in Ukraine remains poorly understood. We assessed the genetic diversity of HIV-1 subtype B viruses circulating in Ukraine, characterized the transmission group structure, and estimated key evolutionary and epidemiological parameters. We analyzed 120 HIV-1 subtype B pol sequences (including 46 newly generated) sampled from patients residing in 11 regions of Ukraine between 2002 and 2017. Phylogenies were estimated using maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic methods. A Bayesian molecular clock coalescent analysis was used to estimate effective population size dynamics and date the most recent common ancestors of identified clades. A phylodynamic birth-death model was used to estimate the effective reproductive number (R_e) of these clades. We identified two phylogenetically distinct predominantly Ukrainian (≥75%) clades of HIV-1 subtype B. We found no significant transmission group structure for either clade, suggesting frequent mixing among transmission groups. The estimated dates of origin of both subtype B clades were around early 1970s, similar to the introduction of HIV-1 subtype A into Ukraine. R_e was estimated to be 1.42 [95% highest posterior density (HPD) 1.26-1.56] for Clade 1 and 1.69 (95% HPD 1.49-1.84) for Clade 2. Evidently, the subtype B epidemic in the country is no longer concentrated in specific geographical regions or transmission groups. The study results highlight the necessity for strengthening preventive and monitoring efforts to reduce the further spread of HIV-1 subtype B.

HIV-1 subtype diversity, transmission networks and transmitted drug resistance amongst acute and early infected MSM populations from Coastal Kenya

Background

HIV-1 molecular epidemiology amongst men who have sex with men (MSM) in sub-Saharan Africa remains not well characterized. We aimed to determine HIV-1 subtype distribution, transmission clusters and transmitted drug resistance (TDR) in acute and early infected MSM from Coastal Kenya.

Methods

Analysis of HIV-1 partial pol sequences from MSM recruited 2005–2017 and sampled within six months of the estimated date of infection. Volunteers were classified as men who have sex with men exclusively (MSME) or with both men and women (MSMW). HIV-1 subtype and transmission clusters were determined by maximum-likelihood phylogenetics. TDR mutations were determined using the Stanford HIV drug resistance database.

Results

Of the 97 volunteers, majority (69%) were MSMW; 74%, 16%, 9% and 1% had HIV-1 subtypes A1, D, C or G, respectively. Overall, 65% formed transmission clusters, with substantial mixing between MSME and MSMW. Majority of volunteer sequences were either not linked to any reference sequence (56%) or clustered exclusively with sequences of Kenyan origin (19%). Eight (8% [95% CI: 4–16]) had at least one TDR mutation against nucleoside (n = 2 [2%]) and/or non-nucleoside (n = 7 [7%]) reverse transcriptase inhibitors. The most prevalent TDR mutation was K103N (n = 5), with sequences forming transmission clusters of two and three taxa each. There were no significant differences in HIV-1 subtype distribution and TDR between MSME and MSMW.

Conclusions

This HIV-1 MSM epidemic was predominantly sub-subtype A1, of Kenyan origin, with many transmission clusters and having intermediate level of TDR. Targeted HIV-1 prevention, early identification and care interventions are warranted to break the transmission cycle amongst MSM from Coastal Kenya.

Increasing proportions of HIV-1 non-B subtypes and of NNRTI resistance between 2013 and 2016 in Germany: Results from the national molecular surveillance of new HIV-diagnoses

Background

Molecular surveillance of newly diagnosed HIV-infections is important for tracking trends in circulating HIV-variants, including those with transmitted drug resistances (TDR) to sustain ART efficacy.

Methods

Dried serum spots (DSS) are received together with the statutory notification of a new diagnosis. 'Recent infections' (<155 days) classified by a 'recent infection test algorithm' (BED-CEIA and clinical data) are genotyped in HIV-protease (PR), reverse transcriptase (RT) and integrase (INT) to determine the HIV-1 subtype, to calculate prevalence and trends of TDR, to predict baseline susceptibility and to identify potential transmission clusters for resistant variants.

Results

Between January 2013 and December 2016, 1,885 recent infections were analysed regarding the PR/RT genomic region, with 43.5% of these also being subjected to the analysis of INT. The proportion of HIV-1 non-B viruses (31.3%; 591/1,885) increased from 21.6% to 36.0%, particularly the subtypes A (5.0% to 8.3%) and C (3.2% to 7.7%; all p_trends < 0.01). The subtype A increment is mainly due to transmissions within men who have sex with men (MSM) while subtype C transmissions are associated with heterosexuals and people who inject drugs. The prevalence of TDR was stable at 11.0% (208/1,885) over the study period. Resistances to nucleotide RT inhibitors (NRTI) and PR inhibitors (PI) were 4.5% and 3.2%, respectively, without identifiable trends. In contrast, resistances to non-NRTIs (NNRTI, 4.7%) doubled between 2014 and 2016 from 3.2% to 6.4% (p_trend = 0.02) mainly due to the K103N mutation (from 1.7% to 4.1%; p_trend = 0.03) predominantly detected in recently infected German MSM not linked to transmission clusters. Transmitted INSTI mutations were present in only one case (T66I) and resistance to dolutegravir was not identified at all. Reduced susceptibility to recommended first-line therapies was low with 1.0% for PIs, 1.3% for NRTIs and 0.7% for INSTIs, but high for the NNRTIs efavirence (4.9%) and rilpivirine (6.0%) due to the K103N mutation and the polymorphic mutation E138A. These trends in therapy-naïve individuals impact current first-line regimens and require awareness and vigilant surveillance.

Prevalence of HIV-1 pretreatment drug resistance among treatment naïve pregnant women in Bissau, Guinea Bissau

Background

With increased access to antiretroviral treatment (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa emergence of HIV-1 pretreatment drug resistance constitutes a serious risk. This may lead to rapid virological failure in subjects initiating ART, and mother-to-child transmission despite prophylaxis.

Methods

Treatment-naïve pregnant women from four antenatal care clinics in Bissau, Guinea-Bissau, were enrolled from October 2016 to November 2017. Genotypic resistance testing and phylogenetic subtype analysis was performed on 48 specimens.

Results

Forty eight women met the survey inclusion criteria. All specimens were successfully amplified and genotyped. Specimens from five women were associated with HIV-1 drug resistance mutations. Four carried mutations exclusively linked to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) (K103N, K103N/S) and one carried mutations to both NNRTIs (G190S, K101E) and nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) (M184V). These results corresponded to 10.4% (95% CI: 4.5–22.2%), 2.1% (95% CI: 0.4–10.9%) and 0% (95% CI: 0.0–7.4%) drug resistance mutations to NNRTIs, NRTIs and protease inhibitors, respectively. HIV-1 circulating recombinant form 02AG was most commonly found, followed by HIV-1 sub-subtype A3. Subtype/CRF was not associated with drug resistance mutations.

Conclusion

Our study reports a 10.4% prevalence of pretreatment drug resistance to NNRTIs in HIV-1-infected pregnant women in the capital Bissau, Guinea Bissau. Since NNRTIs are part of first-line ART in the country, baseline resistance screenings or adjustment of national treatment guidelines should be considered as antiretroviral treatment programs are scaled up.

HIV-genetic diversity and drug resistance transmission clusters in Gondar, Northern Ethiopia, 2003-2013

BACKGROUND

The HIV-1 epidemic in Ethiopia has been shown to be dominated by two phylogenetically distinct subtype C clades, the Ethiopian (C'-ET) and East African (C-EA) clades, however, little is known about the temporal dynamics of the HIV epidemic with respect to subtypes and distinct clades. Moreover, there is only limited information concerning transmission of HIV-1 drug resistance (TDR) in the country.

METHODS

A cross-sectional survey was conducted among young antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naïve individuals recently diagnosed with HIV infection, in Gondar, Ethiopia, 2011-2013 using the WHO recommended threshold survey. A total of 84 study participants with a median age of 22 years were enrolled. HIV-1 genotyping was performed and investigated for drug resistance in 67 individuals. Phylogenetic analyses were performed on all available HIV sequences obtained from Gondar (n = 301) which were used to define subtype C clades, temporal trends and local transmission clusters. Dating of transmission clusters was performed using BEAST.

RESULT

Four of 67 individuals (6.0%) carried a HIV drug resistance mutation strain, all associated with non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTI). Strains of the C-EA clade were most prevalent as we found no evidence of temporal changes during this time period. However, strains of the C-SA clade, prevalent in Southern Africa, have been introduced in Ethiopia, and became more abundant during the study period. The oldest Gondar transmission clusters dated back to 1980 (C-EA), 1983 (C-SA) and 1990 (C'-ET) indicating the presence of strains of different subtype C clades at about the same time point in Gondar. Moreover, some of the larger clusters dated back to the 1980s but transmissions within clusters have been ongoing up till end of the study period. Besides being associated with more sequences and larger clusters, the C-EA clade sequences were also associated with clustering of HIVDR sequences. One cluster was associated with the G190A mutation and showed onward transmissions at high rate.

CONCLUSION

TDR was detected in 6.0% of the sequenced samples and confirmed pervious reports that the two subtype C clades, C-EA and C'-ET, are common in Ethiopia. Moreover, the findings indicated an increased diversity in the epidemic as well as differences in transmission clusters sizes of the different clades and association with resistance mutations. These findings provide epidemiological insights not directly available using standard surveillance and may inform the adjustment of public health strategies in HIV prevention in Ethiopia.

THE PREVALENCE OF HIV RECOMBINANT FORMS IN RUSSIA AND COUNTRIES OF THE CIS: SYSTEMATIC REVIEW AND METAANALYSIS

This review was to aimed to access the prevalence of HIV recombinant forms in Russia and countries of the CIS, which have  close social and economic ties. We conducted a search in Russian  Science Citation Index and PubMed for a depth of 8 years. We  included 22 articles, which contained the results of 35 independent  cross-sectional studies, in our review. Meta-analysis of HIV  recombinant forms prevalence was conducted in Open Meta-analyst  with the use of Der Simonian Laird method, arcsin transformation  and correction factor for zero values. Subgroup analysis was used  along with meta-regression (by date of collection). Pooled prevalence of HIV recombinant forms was 21.3% (95% CI 16.2–26.5) and was  highly heterogeneous. Blood samples from 3,494 HIV patients living  in various regions of the Russian Federation and CIS countries —  Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Armenia,  Georgia — were examined. Among subtypes of HIV-1, the main  share was occupied by subtype A — 75.6% (n = 2643), subtype B —  5.5% (n = 193), C — 0.8% (n = 31), G — 0.2% (n = 7), F —  0.14% (n = 5). Among the recombinant forms (n = 616), the  fraction of CRF02_ AG was 39.6% (n = 244), CRF02_AG/A was  32.9% (n = 203), CRF63_02A1 was 15.9% (n = 98), CRF03_AB —  5.2% (n = 32), CRF06_cpx — 2.1% (n = 13). Unique recombinant  forms were 2.7% (n = 17), including URF63_A1 (2.5%). In Russia, the highest prevalence of recombinant forms of HIV-1 was  registered in the Siberian Federal District (33.2% (95% CI 12.2– 54.1), the lowest in the Northwest Federal District — 1.6% (95% CI  0.9–2.3). In the CIS countries, the highest prevalence of  recombinant forms of HIV-1 is found in a subgroup of the Central  Asian republics — Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan —  51.7% (95% CI 38.5–64.9). The significant upward trend was shown with a meta-regression. Our review is the first such research in  Russia and thus is of significant interest, but the result should be  applied with caution due to high risk of publication bias as well as significant heterogeneity of our results.

Dynamics and phylogenetic relationships of HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance according to subtype in Italy over the years 2000-14

Background

Transmitted drug-resistance (TDR) remains a critical aspect for the management of HIV-1-infected individuals. Thus, studying the dynamics of TDR is crucial to optimize HIV care.

Methods

In total, 4323 HIV-1 protease/reverse-transcriptase sequences from drug-naive individuals diagnosed in north and central Italy between 2000 and 2014 were analysed. TDR was evaluated over time. Maximum-likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic trees with bootstrap and Bayesian-probability supports defined transmission clusters.

Results

Most individuals were males (80.2%) and Italian (72.1%), with a median (IQR) age of 37 (30-45) years. MSM accounted for 42.2% of cases, followed by heterosexuals (36.4%). Non-B subtype infections accounted for 30.8% of the overall population and increased over time (<2005-14: 19.5%-38.5%, P < 0.0001), particularly among Italians (<2005-14: 6.5%-28.8%, P < 0.0001). TDR prevalence was 8.8% and increased over time in non-B subtypes (<2005-14: 2%-7.1%, P = 0.018). Overall, 467 transmission clusters (involving 1207 individuals; 27.9%) were identified. The prevalence of individuals grouping in transmission clusters increased over time in both B (<2005-14: 12.9%-33.5%, P = 0.001) and non-B subtypes (<2005-14: 18.4%-41.9%, P = 0.006). TDR transmission clusters were 13.3% within the overall cluster observed and dramatically increased in recent years (<2005-14: 14.3%-35.5%, P = 0.005). This recent increase was mainly due to non-B subtype-infected individuals, who were also more frequently involved in large transmission clusters than those infected with a B subtype [median number of individuals in transmission clusters: 7 (IQR 6-19) versus 4 (3-4), P = 0.047].

Conclusions

The epidemiology of HIV transmission changed greatly over time; the increasing number of transmission clusters (sometimes with drug resistance) shows that detection and proper treatment of the multi-transmitters is a major target for controlling HIV spread.

Increase in transmitted drug resistance in migrants from sub-Saharan Africa diagnosed with HIV-1 in Sweden

OBJECTIVE

To study the trends of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) in HIV-1 patients newly diagnosed in Sweden, 2010-2016.

DESIGN

Register-based study including all antiretroviral therapy-naive patients ≥18 years diagnosed with HIV-1 in Sweden 2010-2016.

METHODS

Patient data and viral pol sequences were extracted from the national InfCareHIV database. TDR was defined as the presence of surveillance drug resistance mutations (SDRMs). A CD4 T-cell decline trajectory model estimated time of infection. Phylogenetic inference was used for cluster analysis. Chi-square tests and logistic regressions were used to investigate relations between TDR, epidemiological and viral factors.

RESULTS

One thousand, seven hundred and thirteen pol sequences were analyzed, corresponding to 71% of patients with a new HIV-1 diagnosis (heterosexuals: 53%; MSM: 34%). The overall prevalence of TDR was 7.1% (95% CI 5.8-8.3%). Nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) TDR increased significantly from 1.5% in 2010 to 6.2% in 2016, and was associated to infection and/or origin in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). An MSM transmission cluster dating back to the 1990s with the M41L SDRM was identified. Twenty-five (1.5%) patients exhibited TDR to tenofovir (TDF; n = 8), emtricitabine/lamivudine (n = 9) or both (n = 8).

CONCLUSION

NNRTI TDR has increased from 2010 to 2016 in HIV-1-infected migrants from SSA diagnosed in Sweden, mirroring the situation in SSA. TDR to tenofovir/emtricitabine, used in preexposure prophylaxis, confirms the clinical and epidemiological need for resistance testing in newly diagnosed patients.

Phylogenetic analysis of the Belgian HIV-1 epidemic reveals that local transmission is almost exclusively driven by men having sex with men despite presence of large African migrant communities

To improve insight in the drivers of local HIV-1 transmission in Belgium, phylogenetic, demographic, epidemiological and laboratory data from patients newly diagnosed between 2013 and 2015 were combined and analyzed. Characteristics of clustered patients, paired patients and patients on isolated branches in the phylogenetic tree were compared. The results revealed an overall high level of clustering despite the short time frame of sampling, with 47.6% of all patients having at least one close genetic counterpart and 36.6% belonging to a cluster of 3 or more individuals. Compared to patients on isolated branches, patients in clusters more frequently reported being infected in Belgium (95.1% vs. 47.6%; p < 0.001), were more frequently men having sex with men (MSM) (77.9% vs. 42.8%; p < 0.001), of Belgian origin (68.2% vs. 32.9%; p < 0.001), male gender (92.6% vs. 65.8%; p < 0.001), infected with subtype B or F (87.8% vs. 43.4%; p < 0.001) and diagnosed early after infection (55.4% vs. 29.0%; p < 0.001). Strikingly, Sub-Saharan Africans (SSA), overall representing 27.1% of the population were significantly less frequently found in clusters than on individual branches (6.0% vs. 41.8%; p < 0.001). Of the SSA that participated in clustered transmission, 66.7% were MSM and this contrasts sharply with the overall 12.0% of SSA reporting MSM. Transmission clusters with SSA were more frequently non-B clusters than transmission clusters without SSA (44.4% versus 18.2%). MSM-driven clusters with patients of mixed origin may account, at least in part, for the increasing spread of non-B subtypes to the native MSM population, a cross-over that has been particularly successful for subtype F and CRF02_AG. The main conclusions from this study are that clustered transmission in Belgium remains almost exclusively MSM-driven with very limited contribution of SSA. There were no indications for local ongoing clustered transmission of HIV-1 among SSA.

HIV-1 Infection in Cyprus, the Eastern Mediterranean European Frontier: A Densely Sampled Transmission Dynamics Analysis from 1986 to 2012

Since HIV-1 treatment is increasingly considered an effective preventionstrategy, it is important to study local HIV-1 epidemics to formulate tailored preventionpolicies. The prevalence of HIV-1 in Cyprus was historically low until 2005. To investigatethe shift in epidemiological trends, we studied the transmission dynamics of HIV-1 in Cyprususing a densely sampled Cypriot HIV-1 transmission cohort that included 85 percent ofHIV-1-infected individuals linked to clinical care between 1986 and 2012 based on detailedclinical, epidemiological, behavioral and HIV-1 genetic information. Subtyping andtransmission cluster reconstruction were performed using maximum likelihood and Bayesianmethods, and the transmission chain network was linked to the clinical, epidemiological andbehavioral data. The results reveal that for the main HIV-1 subtype A1 and B sub-epidemics,young and drug-naïve HIV-1-infected individuals in Cyprus are driving the dynamics of thelocal HIV-1 epidemic. The results of this study provide a better understanding of thedynamics of the HIV-1 infection in Cyprus, which may impact the development of preventionstrategies. Furthermore, this methodology for analyzing densely sampled transmissiondynamics is applicable to other geographic regions to implement effective HIV-1 preventionstrategies in local settings.

Genotypic and Phylogenetic Insights on Prevention of the Spread of HIV-1 and Drug Resistance in "Real-World" Settings

HIV continues to spread among vulnerable heterosexual (HET), Men-having-Sex with Men (MSM) and intravenous drug user (IDU) populations, influenced by a complex array of biological, behavioral and societal factors. Phylogenetics analyses of large sequence datasets from national drug resistance testing programs reveal the evolutionary interrelationships of viral strains implicated in the dynamic spread of HIV in different regional settings. Viral phylogenetics can be combined with demographic and behavioral information to gain insights on epidemiological processes shaping transmission networks at the population-level. Drug resistance testing programs also reveal emergent mutational pathways leading to resistance to the 23 antiretroviral drugs used in HIV-1 management in low-, middle- and high-income settings. This article describes how genotypic and phylogenetic information from Quebec and elsewhere provide critical information on HIV transmission and resistance, Cumulative findings can be used to optimize public health strategies to tackle the challenges of HIV in “real-world” settings.

High prevalence and diversity of HIV-1 non-B genetic forms due to immigration in southern Spain: A phylogeographic approach

Phylogenetic studies are a valuable tool to understand viral transmission patterns and the role of immigration in HIV-1 spread. We analyzed the spatio-temporal relationship of different HIV-1 non-B subtype variants over time using phylogenetic analysis techniques. We collected 693 pol (PR+RT) sequences that were sampled from 2005 to 2012 from naïve patients in different hospitals in southern Spain. We used REGA v3.0 to classify them into subtypes and recombinant forms, which were confirmed by phylogenetic analysis through maximum likelihood (ML) using RAxML. For the main HIV-1 non-B variants, publicly available, genetically similar sequences were sought using HIV-BLAST. The presence of HIV-1 lineages circulating in our study population was established using ML and Bayesian inference (BEAST v1.7.5) and transmission networks were identified. We detected 165 (23.4%) patients infected with HIV-1 non-B variants: 104 (63%) with recombinant viruses in pol: CRF02_AG (71, 43%), CRF14_BG (8, 4.8%), CRF06_cpx (5, 3%) and nine other recombinant forms (11, 6.7%) and unique recombinants (9, 5.5%). The rest (61, 37%) were infected with non-recombinant subtypes: A1 (30, 18.2%), C (7, [4.2%]), D (3, [1.8%]), F1 (9, 5.5%) and G (12, 7.3%). Most patients infected with HIV-1 non-B variants were men (63%, p < 0.001) aged over 35 (73.5%, p < 0.001), heterosexuals (92.2%, p < 0.001), from Africa (59.5%, p < 0.001) and living in the El Ejido area (62.4%, p<0.001). We found lineages of epidemiological relevance (mainly within Subtype A1), imported primarily through female sex workers from East Europe. We detected 11 transmission clusters of HIV-1 non-B Subtypes, which included patients born in Spain in half of them. We present the phylogenetic profiles of the HIV-1 non-B variants detected in southern Spain, and explore their putative geographical origins. Our data reveals a high HIV-1 genetic diversity likely due to the import of viral lineages that circulate in other countries. The highly immigrated El Ejido area acts as a gateway through which different subtypes are introduced into other regions, hence the importance of setting up epidemiological control measures to prevent future outbreaks.

Identification of major routes of HIV transmission throughout Mesoamerica

BACKGROUND

Migration and travel are major drivers of the spread of infectious diseases. Geographic proximity and a common language facilitate travel and migration in Mesoamerica, which in turn could affect the spread of HIV in the region.

METHODS

6092 HIV-1 subtype B partial pol sequences sampled from unique antiretroviral treatment-naïve individuals from Mexico (40.7%), Guatemala (24.4%), Honduras (19%), Panama (8.2%), Nicaragua (5.5%), Belize (1.4%), and El Salvador (0.7%) between 2011 and 2016 were included. Phylogenetic and genetic network analyses were performed to infer putative relationships between HIV sequences. The demographic and geographic associations with clustering were analyzed and viral migration patterns were inferred using the Slatkin-Maddison approach on 100 iterations of random subsets of equal number of sequences per location.

RESULTS

A total of 1685/6088 (27.7%) of sequences linked with at least one other sequence, forming 603 putative transmission clusters (range: 2-89 individuals). Clustering individuals were significantly more likely to be younger (median age 29 vs 33years, p<0.01) and men-who-have-sex-with-men (40.4% vs 30.3%, p<0.01). Of the 603 clusters, 30 (5%) included sequences from multiple countries with commonly observed linkages between Mexican and Honduran sequences. Eight of the 603 clusters included >10 individuals, including two comprised exclusively of Guatemalans (52 and 89 individuals). Phylogenetic and migration analyses suggested that the Central and Southern regions of Mexico along with Belize were major sources of HIV throughout the region (p<0.01) with genetic flow southward from Mexico to the other nations of Mesoamerica. We also found evidence of significant viral migration within Mexico.

CONCLUSION

International clusters were infrequent, suggesting moderate migration between HIV epidemics of the different Mesoamerican countries. Nevertheless, we observed important sources of transnational HIV spread in the region, including Southern and Central Mexico and Belize.

Assessing the danger of self-sustained HIV epidemics in heterosexuals by population based phylogenetic cluster analysis

Assessing the danger of transition of HIV transmission from a concentrated to a generalized epidemic is of major importance for public health. In this study, we develop a phylogeny-based statistical approach to address this question. As a case study, we use this to investigate the trends and determinants of HIV transmission among Swiss heterosexuals. We extract the corresponding transmission clusters from a phylogenetic tree. To capture the incomplete sampling, the delayed introduction of imported infections to Switzerland, and potential factors associated with basic reproductive number R0, we extend the branching process model to infer transmission parameters. Overall, the R0 is estimated to be 0.44 (95%-confidence interval 0.42—0.46) and it is decreasing by 11% per 10 years (4%—17%). Our findings indicate rather diminishing HIV transmission among Swiss heterosexuals far below the epidemic threshold. Generally, our approach allows to assess the danger of self-sustained epidemics from any viral sequence data.

In epidemiology, the “basic reproductive number” describes how efficiently a disease is transmitted, and represents the average number of new infections that an infected individual causes. If this number is less than one, many people do not infect anybody and hence the transmission chains die out. On the other hand, if the basic reproductive number is larger than one, an infected person infects on average more than one new individual, which leads to the virus or bacteria spreading in a self-sustained way.

Turk et al. have now developed a method to estimate the basic reproductive number using the genetic sequences of the virus or bacteria, and have used it to investigate how efficiently HIV spreads among Swiss heterosexuals. The results show that the basic reproductive number of HIV in this group is far below the critical value of one and that over the last years this number has been decreasing. Furthermore, the basic reproductive number differs for different subtypes of the HIV virus, indicating that the geographical region where the infection was acquired may play a role in transmission. Turk et al. also found that people who are diagnosed later or who often have sex with occasional partners spread the virus more efficiently.

These findings might be helpful for policy makers as they indicate that the risk of self-sustained transmission in this group in Switzerland is small. Furthermore the method allows HIV epidemics to be monitored at high resolution using sequence data, assesses the success of currently implemented preventive measures, and helps to target subgroups who are at higher risk of an infection – for instance, by supporting frequent HIV testing of these people. The method developed by Turk et al. could also prove useful for assessing the danger of other epidemics.

Recent increased identification and transmission of HIV-1 unique recombinant forms in Sweden

A temporal increase in non-B subtypes has earlier been described in Sweden by us and we hypothesized that this increased viral heterogeneity may become a hotspot for the development of more complex and unique recombinant forms (URFs) if the epidemics converge. In the present study, we performed subtyping using four automated tools and phylogenetic analysis by RAxML of pol gene sequences (n = 5246) and HIV-1 near full-length genome (HIV-NFLG) sequences (n = 104). A CD4⁺ T-cell decline trajectory algorithm was used to estimate time of HIV infection. Transmission clusters were identified using the family-joining method. The analysis of HIV-NFLG and pol gene described 10.6% (11/104) and 2.6% (137/5246) of the strains as URFs, respectively. An increasing trend of URFs was observed in recent years by both approaches (p = 0·0082; p < 0·0001). Transmission cluster analysis using the pol gene of all URFs identified 14 clusters with two to eight sequences. Larger transmission clusters of URFs (BF1 and 01B) were observed among MSM who mostly were sero-diagnosed in recent time. Understanding the increased appearance and transmission of URFs in recent years could have importance for public health interventions and the use of HIV-NFLG would provide better statistical support for such assessments.

Genetic characterization of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 transmission in the Middle East and North Africa

BACKGROUND

The HIV-1 spread in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has not been previously characterised using the phylogenetic approach. The aim of the current study was to investigate the genetic diversity and domestic transmission of HIV-1 in the MENA.

METHODS

A total of 2036 HIV-1 sequences available in Genbank and collected in the MENA during 1988-2016 were used together with 715 HIV-1 reference sequences that were retrieved from Genbank based on genetic similarity with the MENA sequences. The REGA and COMET tools were used to determine HIV-1 subtypes and circulating recombinant forms. Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic analyses were used to identify and date HIV-1 transmission clusters.

RESULTS

At least 21 HIV-1 subtypes and recombinant forms were prevalent in the MENA. Subtype B was the most common variant (39%), followed by CRF35_AD (19%) and CRF02_AG (14%). The most common genetic region was pol, and 675 partial pol sequences (average of 1005 bp) were eligible for detailed phylogenetic analysis. Fifty-four percent of the MENA sequences formed HIV-1 transmission clusters. Whereas numerous clusters were country-specific, some clusters indicated transmission links between countries for subtypes B, C and CRF02_AG. This was more common in North Africa compared with the Middle East (p < 0.001). Recombinant forms had a larger proportion of clustering compared to pure subtypes (p < 0.001). The largest MENA clusters dated back to 1991 (an Algerian CRF06_cpx cluster of 43 sequences) and 2002 (a Tunisian CRF02_AG cluster of 48 sequences).

CONCLUSIONS

We found an extensive HIV-1 diversity in the MENA and a high proportion of sequences in transmission clusters. This study highlights the need for preventive measures in the MENA to limit HIV-1 spread in this region.

Defining HIV-1 transmission clusters based on sequence data

Understanding HIV-1 transmission dynamics is relevant to both screening and intervention strategies of HIV-1 infection. Commonly, HIV-1 transmission chains are determined based on sequence similarity assessed either directly from a sequence alignment or by inferring a phylogenetic tree. This review is aimed at both nonexperts interested in understanding and interpreting studies of HIV-1 transmission, and experts interested in finding the most appropriate cluster definition for a specific dataset and research question. We start by introducing the concepts and methodologies of how HIV-1 transmission clusters usually have been defined. We then present the results of a systematic review of 105 HIV-1 molecular epidemiology studies summarizing the most common methods and definitions in the literature. Finally, we offer our perspectives on how HIV-1 transmission clusters can be defined and provide some guidance based on examples from real life datasets.

Inference of Transmission Network Structure from HIV Phylogenetic Trees

Phylogenetic inference is an attractive means to reconstruct transmission histories and epidemics. However, there is not a perfect correspondence between transmission history and virus phylogeny. Both node height and topological differences may occur, depending on the interaction between within-host evolutionary dynamics and between-host transmission patterns. To investigate these interactions, we added a within-host evolutionary model in epidemiological simulations and examined if the resulting phylogeny could recover different types of contact networks. To further improve realism, we also introduced patient-specific differences in infectivity across disease stages, and on the epidemic level we considered incomplete sampling and the age of the epidemic. Second, we implemented an inference method based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to discriminate among three well-studied network models and jointly estimate both network parameters and key epidemiological quantities such as the infection rate. Our ABC framework used both topological and distance-based tree statistics for comparison between simulated and observed trees. Overall, our simulations showed that a virus time-scaled phylogeny (genealogy) may be substantially different from the between-host transmission tree. This has important implications for the interpretation of what a phylogeny reveals about the underlying epidemic contact network. In particular, we found that while the within-host evolutionary process obscures the transmission tree, the diversification process and infectivity dynamics also add discriminatory power to differentiate between different types of contact networks. We also found that the possibility to differentiate contact networks depends on how far an epidemic has progressed, where distance-based tree statistics have more power early in an epidemic. Finally, we applied our ABC inference on two different outbreaks from the Swedish HIV-1 epidemic.