Carrier rate of zidovudine-resistant HIV-1: the impact of failing therapy on transmission of resistant strains

HIV treatment as prevention: contradictory perspectives from dynamic mathematical models

The preventative effects of antiretroviral therapy for people with HIV have been debated since they were first raised. Models commenced studying the preventive effects of treatment in the 1990s, prior to initial public reports. However, the outcomes of the preventive effects of antiretroviral use were not consistent. Some outcomes of dynamic models were based on unfeasible assumptions, such as no consideration of drug resistance, behavior disinhibition, or economic inputs in poor countries, and unrealistic input variables, for example, overstated initiation time, adherence, coverage, and efficacy of treatment. This paper reviewed dynamic mathematical models to ascertain the complex effects of ART on HIV transmission. This review discusses more conservative inputs and outcomes relative to antiretroviral use in HIV infections in dynamic mathematical models. ART alone cannot eliminate HIV transmission.

Mechanism of HIV antiretroviral drugs progress toward drug resistance

The rapid replication rate of HIV-1 RNA and its inherent genetic variation have led to the production of many HIV-1 variants with decreased drug susceptibility. The capacity of HIV to develop drug resistance mutations is a major obstacle to long-term effective anti-HIV therapy. Incomplete suppression of viral replication with an initial drug regimen diminishes the clinical benefit to the patient and may promote the development of broader drug resistance that may cause subsequent treatment regimens to be ineffective. The increased clinical use of combination antiretroviral treatment for HIV-1 infection has led to the selection of viral strains resistant to multiple drugs, including strains resistant to all licensed nucleoside analog RT inhibitors and protease inhibitors. Therefore, it is important to understand the influence of such mutations on viral properties such as replicative fitness, fidelity, and mutation rates. Although research continues to improve our understanding of resistance, leading to refined treatment strategies and, in some cases, improved outcome, resistance to antiretroviral therapy remains a major cause of treatment failure among patients living with HIV-1.

Mathematical models for the study of HIV spread and control amongst men who have sex with men

For a quarter of century, mathematical models have been used to study the spread and control of HIV amongst men who have sex with men (MSM). We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE databases up to the end of 2010 and reviewed this literature to summarise the methodologies used, key model developments, and the recommended strategies for HIV control amongst MSM. Of 742 studies identified, 127 studies met the inclusion criteria. Most studies employed deterministic modelling methods (80%). Over time we saw an increase in model complexity regarding antiretroviral therapy (ART), and a corresponding decrease in complexity regarding sexual behaviours. Formal estimation of model parameters was carried out in only a small proportion of the studies (22%) while model validation was considered by an even smaller proportion (17%), somewhat reducing confidence in the findings from the studies. Nonetheless, a number of common conclusions emerged, including (1) identification of the importance of assumptions regarding changes in infectivity and sexual contact rates on the impact of ART on HIV incidence, that subsequently led to empirical studies to gather these data, and (2) recommendation that multiple strategies would be required for effective HIV control amongst MSM. The role of mathematical models in studying epidemics is clear, and the lack of formal inference and validation highlights the need for further developments in this area. Improved methodologies for parameter estimation and systematic sensitivity analysis will help generate predictions that more fully express uncertainty, allowing better informed decision making in public health.

27 years of the HIV epidemic amongst men having sex with men in the Netherlands: an in depth mathematical model-based analysis

BACKGROUND

There has been increasing concern about a resurgent epidemic of HIV-1 amongst men having sex with men in the Netherlands, which has parallels with similar epidemics now occurring in many other countries.

METHODS

A transmission model applicable to HIV-1 epidemics, including the use of antiretroviral therapy, is presented in a set of ordinary differential equations. The model is fitted by maximum likelihood to national HIV-1 and AIDS diagnosis data from 1980 to 2006, estimating parameters on average changes in unsafe sex and time to diagnosis. Robustness is studied with a detailed univariate sensitivity analysis, and a range of hypothetical scenarios are explored for the past and next decade.

RESULTS

With a reproduction number around the epidemic threshold one, the HIV-1 epidemic amongst men having sex with men in the Netherlands is still not under control. Scenario analysis showed that in the absence of antiretroviral therapy limiting infectiousness in treated patients, the epidemic could have been more than double its current size. Ninety percent of new HIV transmissions are estimated to take place before diagnosis of the index case. Decreasing time from infection to diagnosis, which was 2.5 years on average in 2006, can prevent many future infections.

CONCLUSIONS

Sexual risk behaviour amongst men having sex with men who are not aware of their infection is the most likely factor driving this epidemic.

Transmission networks of HIV-1 among men having sex with men in the Netherlands

OBJECTIVE

To obtain insight in the HIV-1 transmission networks among men having sex with men (MSM) in the Netherlands.

DESIGN

A phylogenetic tree was constructed from polymerase sequences isolated from 2877 HIV-1 subtype B-infected patients monitored as part of the AIDS Therapy Evaluation in the Netherlands (ATHENA) nationwide observational cohort.

METHODS

For MSM with a known date of infection, the most similar sequences were selected as potential transmission pairs when they clustered with bootstrap value of at least 99%. Time from infection to onward transmission was estimated as the median time between dates of infection for each transmission pair. The source of infections with a resistant strain was traced using the entire phylogenetic tree.

RESULTS

Of sequences from 403 MSM with a known date of infection between 1987 and 2007, 175 (43%) formed 63 clusters. Median time to onward transmission was 1.4 years (interquartile range 0.6-2.7). Twenty-four (6%) MSM carried a virus with resistance-related mutations, 13 of these were in eight clusters together with sequences from 28 other patients in the entire phylogenetic tree. Six clusters contained sequences obtained from 29 men all presenting the same resistance-related mutations.

CONCLUSION

From our selection of likely transmission pairs, we conclude that onward transmission of HIV-1 from infected MSM in the Netherlands happens both during and after primary infection. Transmission of resistant strains from the antiretroviral therapy-treated population is limited, but strains with resistance-related mutations have formed subepidemics.

Evolutionary dynamics of complex networks of HIV drug-resistant strains: the case of San Francisco

Over the past two decades, HIV resistance to antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) has risen to high levels in the wealthier countries of the world, which are able to afford widespread treatment. We have gained insights into the evolution and transmission dynamics of ARV resistance by designing a biologically complex multistrain network model. With this model, we traced the evolutionary history of ARV resistance in San Francisco and predict its future dynamics. By using classification and regression trees, we identified the key immunologic, virologic, and treatment factors that increase ARV resistance. Our modeling shows that 60% of the currently circulating ARV-resistant strains in San Francisco are capable of causing self-sustaining epidemics, because each individual infected with one of these strains can cause, on average, more than one new resistant infection. It is possible that a new wave of ARV-resistant strains that pose a substantial threat to global public health is emerging.

The impact of transmission clusters on primary drug resistance in newly diagnosed HIV-1 infection

OBJECTIVES

To monitor HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance (TDR) in a well defined urban area with large access to antiretroviral therapy and to assess the potential source of infection of newly diagnosed HIV individuals.

METHODS

All individuals resident in Geneva, Switzerland, with a newly diagnosed HIV infection between 2000 and 2008 were screened for HIV resistance. An infection was considered as recent when the positive test followed a negative screening test within less than 1 year. Phylogenetic analyses were performed by using the maximum likelihood method on pol sequences including 1058 individuals with chronic infection living in Geneva.

RESULTS

Of 637 individuals with newly diagnosed HIV infection, 20% had a recent infection. Mutations associated with resistance to at least one drug class were detected in 8.5% [nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), 6.3%; non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs), 3.5%; protease inhibitors, 1.9%]. TDR (P-trend = 0.015) and, in particular, NNRTI resistance (P = 0.002) increased from 2000 to 2008. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that 34.9% of newly diagnosed individuals, and 52.7% of those with recent infection were linked to transmission clusters. Clusters were more frequent in individuals with TDR than in those with sensitive strains (59.3 vs. 32.6%, respectively; P < 0.0001). Moreover, 84% of newly diagnosed individuals with TDR were part of clusters composed of only newly diagnosed individuals.

CONCLUSION

Reconstruction of the HIV transmission networks using phylogenetic analysis shows that newly diagnosed HIV infections are a significant source of onward transmission, particularly of resistant strains, thus suggesting an important self-fueling mechanism for TDR.

A resurgent HIV-1 epidemic among men who have sex with men in the era of potent antiretroviral therapy

OBJECTIVE

Reducing viral load, highly active antiretroviral therapy has the potential to limit onwards transmission of HIV-1 and thus help contain epidemic spread. However, increases in risk behaviour and resurgent epidemics have been widely reported post-highly active antiretroviral therapy. The aim of this study was to quantify the impact that highly active antiretroviral therapy had on the epidemic.

DESIGN

We focus on the HIV-1 epidemic among men who have sex with men in the Netherlands, which has been well documented over the past 20 years within several long-standing national surveillance programs.

METHODS

We used a mathematical model including highly active antiretroviral therapy use and estimated the changes in risk behaviour and diagnosis rate needed to explain annual data on HIV and AIDS diagnoses.

RESULTS

We show that the reproduction number R(t), a measure of the state of the epidemic, declined early on from initial values above two and was maintained below one from 1985 to 2000. Since 1996, when highly active antiretroviral therapy became widely used, the risk behaviour rate has increased 66%, resulting in an increase of R(t) to 1.04 in the latest period 2000-2004 (95% confidence interval 0.98-1.09) near or just above the threshold for a self-sustaining epidemic. Hypothetical scenario analysis shows that the epidemiological benefits of highly active antiretroviral therapy and earlier diagnosis on incidence have been entirely offset by increases in the risk behaviour rate.

CONCLUSION

We provide the first detailed quantitative analysis of the HIV epidemic in a well defined population and find a resurgent epidemic in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy, most likely predominantly caused by increasing sexual risk behaviour.

Prevalence and determinants of transmitted antiretroviral drug resistance in HIV-1 infection

Transmission of drug-resistant HIV-1 variants from antiretroviral treatment-experienced persons has been documented to occur through multiple routes, including sexual intercourse, intravenous drug use and vertically from mother to child. Newly infected persons with transmitted drug resistance (TDR) also act as a source for the onward transmission of resistant variants. Rates of virological suppression and behavioural patterns of treated populations and the relative fitness of drug-resistant variants are important determinants of the prevalence of TDR. Current estimates indicate that the prevalence is highest in regions and populations with long-established use of antiretroviral therapy. Limited data suggest that the incidence of TDR is rising in developing countries where access to therapy is increasing. There are methodological variations between studies, however, including those relative to the selection of the study population and the resistance interpretation system, which can skew prevalence estimates. TDR has important implications for the successful management of antiretroviral therapy. Routine resistance testing of drug-naive persons has been widely adopted in affluent countries and shown to effectively guide the selection of first-line regimens. Genotypic resistance tests offer a practical approach for detecting TDR. However, routine methods can only detect resistant mutants within the dominant quasi-species and fail to detect low-frequency resistant variants, which may become important once selective drug pressure is introduced. More sensitive testing methods are being evaluated but remain research tools at present. In addition, factors such as superinfection and possible differences in resistance patterns between plasma and cellular reservoirs and between anatomical compartments should be considered when evaluating TDR.

HIV drug-resistant strains as epidemiologic sentinels

Observed declines in drug resistance to nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors among persons recently infected with HIV-1 in monitored subpopulations can be interpreted as a positive sign and lead public health officials to decrease efforts towards HIV prevention. By means of a mathematical model, we identified 3 processes that can account for the observed decline: increase in high-risk behavior, decrease in proportion of acutely infected persons whose conditions are treated, and change in treatment efficacy. These processes, singly or in combination, can lead to increases or decreases in disease and drug-resistance prevalence in the general population. We discuss the most appropriate public health response under each scenario and emphasize how further data collection and analyses are required to more reliably evaluate the observed time trends and the relative importance of forces shaping the epidemic. Our study highlights how drug resistance markers can be used as epidemiologic sentinels to devise public health solutions.

Evolution of Transmitted HIV-1 with Drug-Resistance Mutations in the Absence of Therapy: Effects on Cd4+ T-Cell Count and HIV-1 Rna Load

Sequence analysis of HIV-1 from 440 therapy-naive individuals included within the CASCADE study, who seroconverted within 18 months of the last negative test, identified 65 persons infected with a strain carrying resistance-associated mutations. Population-based sequencing was performed for 20 of these individuals during the therapy-free follow-up period. The median time of follow-up was 15 months (interquartile range from 10 to 23 months). Of these individuals, 12 showed subsequent evolution at the resistance positions, whereas the virus of 8 people was stable during this period. In the reverse transcriptase (RT) gene, the drug-resistant 215Y or 215F codons evolved to alternative codons in all six cases, 70R reverted to the wild-type 70K in 3 of the 4 individuals, 67N evolved only in 1 of 4 patients to a wild-type 67D, 215S evolved to wild-type 215T in 1 of 3 patients, 219N evolved to 219K in 1 of 2 patients, and one patient with 184V reversed to the wild-type 184M. The 181C variant evolved to the wild-type 181Y in 1 of 2 individuals. These codon changes were caused by single nucleotide mutations. No evolution was observed for other RT mutations: 41L, 69D, 69N, 190S, 210W, 215L, 215C, 215E and 219Q. In the protease gene, resistance mutations 84V and 90M were stable in 2 individuals. Comparing the CD4+ T-cell count of the 12 evolving versus the 8 stable cases revealed no statistically significant difference at the date of the first sequence following seroconversion. Interestingly, a lower CD4+ T-cell count was observed in the group without evolution at the second sequence time point ( P=0.043). No difference in HIV-1 RNA load was observed. These results, together with the apparent pressure to mutate at the resistance-associated positions exemplify the decreased fitness of viruses carrying 215Y/F, 70R or 184V

Confronting the emergence of drug-resistant HIV type 1: impact of antiretroviral therapy on individual and population resistance

Resistance to antiretroviral agents, and in particular the increasing levels of transmitted resistant virus could offset the substantial gains won with potent antiretroviral therapy. Primary and acquired antiretroviral resistance rates reflect the relative usage of different antiretroviral drugs in the population, as well as the inherent genetic barrier to the development of resistance associated with individual drugs. Data on antiretroviral resistance rates, gleaned from the growing HIV-1-infected population treated with a continuously increasing number of antiretroviral drugs and drug combinations, provide insights into patient management approaches for delaying the emergence of resistance and minimizing the degree of resistance. Evolving data suggest that the relative ease by which HIV-1 escapes the selective pressure of chronic drug exposure varies for the different antiretroviral drug classes and individual antiretroviral drugs. The development of resistance in vivo can be anticipated based on these data, in conjunction with the individuals treatment history and resistance testing results. These in turn can guide the judicious use of antiretroviral drugs to attain optimal treatment responses and to preserve therapeutic options for the time when antiretroviral-resistant strains emerge. The recent developments of new antiretroviral drugs, including the use of boosted protease inhibitors, suggest that treatment strategies can limit the development of resistance.

The antiretroviral rollout and drug-resistant HIV in Africa: insights from empirical data and theoretical models

The U.S. Government has pledged to spend $15 billion in Africa and the Caribbean on AIDS. A central focus of this plan is to provide antiretroviral treatment (ART) to millions. Here, we evaluate whether the plan to rollout ART in Africa is likely to generate an epidemic of drug-resistant strains of HIV. We review what has occurred as a result of high usage of ART in developed countries in terms of changes in risky behavior, and the emergence and transmission of drug-resistant HIV. We also review how mathematical models have been used to predict the evolution of drug-resistant HIV epidemics. We then show how models can be used to predict the likely impact of the ART rollout on the evolution of drug-resistant HIV in Africa. At currently planned levels of treatment coverage, we predict that (over the next decade) in Africa: (i) the impact of ART on reducing HIV transmission (and prevalence) is likely to be undetectable (unless accompanied by substantial changes in behavior), (ii) the transmission rate of drug-resistant HIV will be below the WHO surveillance threshold of 5%, and (ii) the majority of cases of drug-resistant HIV that will occur will be due to acquired (and not transmitted) resistance. For the next decade, large-scale surveillance for detecting transmitted resistance in Africa is unnecessary. Instead, we recommend that patients should be closely monitored for acquired resistance, and sentinel surveillance (in a few urban centers) should be used to monitor transmitted resistance.

Declining trend in transmission of drug-resistant HIV-1 in Amsterdam

OBJECTIVE

Symptomatic primary HIV infections are over-represented in the mainly hospital-based studies on transmission of resistant HIV-1. We examined a more general population for the prevalence of resistant HIV-1 strains among primary infections.

DESIGN

From 1994 to 2002 primary infections were identified within the Amsterdam Cohort Studies (ACS) among homosexual men and drug users, and at the Academic Medical Center (AMC). Whereas primary HIV-1-infected AMC patients, often presented with symptoms of acute retroviral syndrome, ACS participants largely seroconverted during follow-up and thus brought also asymptomatic primary infections to our study.

METHODS

Reverse transcriptase (RT) and protease sequences were obtained by population-based nucleotide sequence analysis of the first HIV RNA-positive sample available. Subtypes were identified by phylogenetic analysis. Mutations were identified based on the IAS-USA resistance table.

RESULTS

A total of 100 primary HIV-1 infections were identified (32 AMC and 68 ACS). Transmission of drug-resistant strains decreased over calendar time, with 20% [95% confidence interval (CI), 10-34%] of infections bearing drug-resistant mutations before 1998 versus only 6% (95% CI, 1-17%) after 1998. No multi-drug resistance pattern was observed. The median plasma HIV-1 RNA level of the first RNA positive sample was significantly lower for the individuals infected with a resistant strain versus those infected with wild-type, suggesting a fitness-cost to resistance. Four of seven non-B subtypes corresponded with the prevalent subtype in the presumed country of infection, and none showed resistance mutations.

CONCLUSIONS

The transmission of drug-resistant HIV-1 strains in Amsterdam has decreased over time. Monitoring should be continued as this trend might change.

Transmission of HIV-1 drug resistance

BACKGROUND

The use of highly-active anti-retroviral therapy (HAART) for treating HIV infections is increasing. Recent studies have demonstrated that HAART is improving both the length and quality of life in HIV-infected patients. Resistant strains of HIV arise when drug adherence is poor. This can lead to the transmission of drug-resistant strains of HIV to susceptible individuals. This can lead to suboptimal first-line therapy, if the resistance profile of the transmitted virus is unknown.

OBJECTIVES

To review the mechanisms of how drug resistance arises; the methods used to characterise drug resistance; the problems arising with compliance leading to the development of drug-resistant HIV strains; the evidence for the incidence, prevalence and trends in the transmission of resistant HIV strains in different risk groups; and the evidence of suboptimal response to first-line therapy where transmission of a resistant HIV strain has occurred. On the basis of this, a case is presented for the routine resistance testing of all newly diagnosed HIV-infected individuals.

STUDY DESIGN

Literature review.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

There is evidence, though limited at present, that transmission of drug-resistant HIV strains can lead to suboptimal response to first-line therapy in newly diagnosed HIV-infected individuals. As the use of HAART can only increase in the future, and compliance will always be a problem in such HAART-treated patients, baseline resistance testing should become a routine part of their management.

Identification of a transmission chain of HIV type 1 containing drug resistance-associated mutations

We have investigated a potential transmission chain of HIV-1 with drug resistance-associated mutations between three individuals over a period of 5 years by use of cloning and sequencing of viral genes, and phenotypic characterization. Viruses containing reverse transcriptase drug resistance-associated mutations were transmitted sequentially between three homosexual men (A, B, and C), and persisted in one individual for at least 4 years, despite intermittent therapy and reduced viral replicative capacity compared with wild-type strains. Clonal analysis of the envelope gene from semen and blood virus showed that the virus transmitted to patient C was more closely related to virus from the semen than the blood of patient B. Our data suggest that HIV variants with drug resistance-associated mutations can persist following primary infection, despite intervening antiretroviral therapy, and subsequently sexually transmitted. We provide "proof of principle" that such mutations can therefore become "fixed" within the circulating virus pool.

Rates of transmission of antiretroviral drug resistant strains of HIV-1

BACKGROUND

It is clear that transmission of drug resistant HIV-1 is possible and occurs regularly. However, there is a lack of clarity concerning the true rate of this transmission in a given population, the impact of combination therapies on this rate, and the contribution of transmitted resistant virus to treatment failure either in an individual or on a population basis.

OBJECTIVES

To provide a review of our current understanding of rates of transmission of drug resistant HIV-1 in various populations and to report the results of a study conducted to determine this rate in Sydney, Australia in the years 1992-2000.

STUDY DESIGN

A review of the literature combined with a prospective study of antiretroviral drug resistance in 130 individuals who were diagnosed with symptomatic primary infection at St. Vincent's Hospital, Sydney, Australia between 1992 and 2000. Sequencing of reverse transcriptase (RT) and protease (PR) was performed by the TruGene HIV-1 genotyping kit (Visible Genetics Inc.).

RESULTS

The results found in the Sydney population contrast with much of the literature. The prevalence of mutations that conferred primary resistance to protease inhibitors (PIs) was only 0.8% at position V82I. Secondary mutations/polymorphisms were seen in the PR at position L10I/V, K20R, M36I, L63P, A71T/V, or V77I in 60%. L63P was the most frequently found mutation (46.3%). The incidence of protease-resistant strains of HIV in primary HIV-1 infection did not change after the introduction of PIs in 1996. The distribution of the most common resistance mutations in the RT was as follows; M41L (8.5%) and T215Y (8.5%) and K70R (4.8%). The frequency of mutations associated with NRTI resistance was significantly lower in the post 1995 samples (43.9 vs. 19.1%, P < 0.05). Moreover, both M41L and K70R, but not T215Y, occurred with significantly decreased frequency in the post 1995 samples.

CONCLUSIONS

In contrast to other studies we found no increase in the rate of PR resistance and a decrease in the rate of RT resistance in recently transmitted virus over the period 1992-2000. The reasons for the differences between these results and those reported from elsewhere may relate to treatment regimens used in the transmitting population and may have implications for treatment policies in this country.

No increase in protease resistance and a decrease in reverse transcriptase resistance mutations in primary HIV-1 infection: 1992-2001

Rates of antiretroviral resistance in recently transmitted virus in Sydney, Australia fluctuated over the past decade, influenced by treatment trends. Current rates of drug resistance are not high in historical terms or compared with those reported. Rates of resistance to reverse transcriptase inhibitors peaked in the mid-1990s, fell dramatically with the introduction of combination therapy and appear to have plateaued at 10-15% over the past 3 years. Primary resistance mutations in the protease gene are still rare.

What can modeling tell us about the threat of antiviral drug resistance?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Currently, antiviral resistance is a major public health concern. Here, we review how mathematical models have been used to provide insights into the emerging threat of antiviral resistance. We focus mainly on the problem of drug resistance to HIV.

RECENT FINDINGS

We review how antiviral models of HIV have been used: (1) to understand the evolution of an epidemic of drug-resistant HIV, (2) to predict the incidence and prevalence of drug-resistant HIV, (3) to conduct biological 'cost-benefit' analyses, and(4) to make public health policy recommendations. We also briefly discuss antiviral resistance for HSV-2 and influenza. Recent studies indicate that for HSV-2 and influenza drug resistance is not likely to become a major public health problem. However, for HIV the situation is very different. Results from several studies predict that a high prevalence of drug-resistant HIV will be an inevitable consequence of more widespread usage of antiretroviral therapies (ART). However more widespread usage of ART will save a substantial number of lives, and could even result in epidemic eradication.

SUMMARY

Models have been used in many ways to provide insight into the emerging threat of antiviral resistance, particularly for HIV. At this stage in the HIV epidemic the most important future use of models may be that they will force the goals of public health policies to be clearly defined. Once goals have been defined it can then be decided whether a high prevalence of drug-resistant HIV is a threat or simply a justified means to an end.