A comparison of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score and the Trauma-Injury Severity Score (TRISS) for outcome assessment in intensive care unit trauma patients

Lymphocyte HVEM/BTLA co-expression after critical illness demonstrates severity indiscriminate upregulation, impacting critical illness-induced immunosuppression

Introduction

The co-regulatory molecule, HVEM, can stimulate or inhibit immune function, but when co-expressed with BTLA, forms an inert complex preventing signaling. Altered HVEM or BTLA expression, separately have been associated with increased nosocomial infections in critical illness. Given that severe injury induces immunosuppression, we hypothesized that varying severity of shock and sepsis in murine models and critically ill patients would induce variable increases in HVEM/BTLA leukocyte co-expression.

Methods

In this study, varying severities of murine models of critical illness were utilized to explore HVEM⁺BTLA⁺ co-expression in the thymic and splenic immune compartments, while circulating blood lymphocytes from critically ill patients were also assessed for HVEM⁺BTLA⁺ co-expression.

Results

Higher severity murine models resulted in minimal change in HVEM⁺BTLA⁺ co-expression, while the lower severity model demonstrated increased HVEM⁺BTLA⁺ co-expression on thymic and splenic CD4⁺ lymphocytes and splenic B220⁺ lymphocytes at the 48-hour time point. Patients demonstrated increased co-expression of HVEM⁺BTLA⁺ on CD3⁺ lymphocytes compared to controls, as well as CD3⁺Ki67^- lymphocytes. Both L-CLP 48hr mice and critically ill patients demonstrated significant increases in TNF-α.

Discussion

While HVEM increased on leukocytes after critical illness in mice and patients, changes in co-expression did not relate to degree of injury severity of murine model. Rather, co-expression increases were seen at later time points in lower severity models, suggesting this mechanism evolves temporally. Increased co-expression on CD3⁺ lymphocytes in patients on non-proliferating cells, and associated TNF-α level increases, suggest post-critical illness co-expression does associate with developing immune suppression.

The incidence of geriatric trauma is increasing and comparison of different scoring tools for the prediction of in-hospital mortality in geriatric trauma patients

Purpose

The study aimed to examine the changing incidence of geriatric trauma and evaluate the predictive ability of different scoring tools for in-hospital mortality in geriatric trauma patients.

Methods

Annual reports released by the National Trauma Database (NTDB) in the USA from 2005 to 2015 and the Trauma Register DGU® in Germany from 1994 to 2012 were analyzed to examine the changing incidence of geriatric trauma. Secondary analysis of a single-center cohort study conducted among 311 severely injured geriatric trauma patients in a level I trauma center in Switzerland was completed. According to the in-hospital survival status, patients were divided into the survival and non-survival group. The differences of the ISS (injury severity score), NISS (new injury severity score), TRISS (Trauma and Injury Severity Score), APACHE II (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II), and SPAS II (simplified acute physiology score II) between two groups were evaluated. Then, the areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) of different scoring tools for the prediction of in-hospital mortality in geriatric trauma patients were calculated.

Results

The analysis of the NTDB showed that the increase in the number of geriatric trauma ranged from 18 to 30% between 2005 and 2015. The analysis of the DGU® showed that the mean age of trauma patients rose from 39.11 in 1993 to 51.10 in 2013, and the proportion of patients aged ≥ 60 years rose from 16.5 to 37.5%. The findings from the secondary analysis showed that 164 (52.73%) patients died in the hospital. The ISS, NISS, APACHE II, and SAPS II in the death group were significantly higher than those in the survival group, and the TRISS in the death group was significantly lower than those in the survival group. The AUCs of the ISS, NISS, TRISS, APACHE II, and SAPS II for the prediction of in-hospital mortality in geriatric trauma patients were 0.807, 0.850, 0.828, 0.715, and 0.725, respectively.

Conclusion

The total number of geriatric trauma is increasing as the population ages. The accuracy of ISS, NISS and TRISS was higher than the APACHE II and SAPS II for the prediction of in-hospital mortality in geriatric trauma patients.

Epidemiology, prognostic factors, and outcome of trauma patients admitted in a Brazilian intensive care unit

Background

Trauma is a major cause of hospital admissions and is associated with manifold complications and high mortality rates. However, data on intensive care unit (ICU) admissions are scarce in developing and low-income countries, where its incidence has been increasing.

Objectives

To analyze epidemiological and clinical factors and outcomes in adult trauma patients admitted to the ICU of a public teaching hospital in a developing country as well as to identify risk factors for complications in the ICU.

Patients and methods

Retrospective cohort of adult trauma patients admitted to the general ICU of a public teaching hospital in southern Brazil in the year 2012. Demographic, clinical, and outcome data from the ICU were analyzed.

Results

During the study period, 144 trauma patients were admitted (83% male, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation Score II =18.6±7.2, age =33.3 years, 93% required mechanical ventilation). Of these, 60.4% suffered a traffic accident (52% motorcycle), and 31.2% were victims of violence (aggressions, gunshot wounds, or stabbing); 71% had brain trauma, 37% had chest trauma, and 21% had abdominal trauma. Patients with trauma presented a high incidence of complications, such as infections, acute renal failure, acute respiratory distress syndrome, and thrombocytopenia. The ICU mortality rate was 22.9%.

Conclusion

In a Brazilian public teaching ICU, there was a great variability of trauma etiologies (mainly traffic accidents with motorcycles and victims of violence); patients with trauma had a high incidence of complications and mortality in the ICU.

Association of the Paediatric Admission Quality of Care score with mortality in Kenyan hospitals: a validation study

Background

Measuring the quality of hospital admission care is essential to ensure that standards of practice are met and continuously improved to reduce morbidity and mortality associated with the illnesses most responsible for inpatient deaths. The Paediatric Admission Quality of Care (PAQC) score is a tool for measuring adherence to guidelines for children admitted with acute illnesses in a low-income setting. We aimed to explore the external and criterion-related validity of the PAQC score by investigating its association with mortality using data drawn from a diverse sample of Kenyan hospitals.

Methods

We identified children admitted to Kenyan hospitals for treatment of malaria, pneumonia, diarrhoea, or dehydration from datasets from three sources: an observational study, a clinical trial, and a national cross-sectional survey. We extracted variables describing the process of care provided to patients at admission and their eventual outcomes from these data. We applied the PAQC scoring algorithm to the data to obtain a quality-of-care score for each child. We assessed external validity of the PAQC score by its systematic replication in datasets that had not been previously used to investigate properties of the PAQC score. We assessed criterion-related validity by using hierarchical logistic regression to estimate the association between PAQC score and the outcome of mortality, adjusting for other factors thought to be predictive of the outcome or responsible for heterogeneity in quality of care.

Findings

We found 19 065 eligible admissions in the three validation datasets that covered 27 hospitals, of which 12 969 (68%) were complete cases. Greater guideline adherence, corresponding to higher PAQC scores, was associated with a reduction in odds of death across the three datasets, ranging between 9% (odds ratio 0·91, 95% CI 0·84–0·99; p=0·031) and 30% (0·70, 0·63–0·78; p<0·0001) adjusted reduction per unit increase in the PAQC score, with a pooled estimate of 17% (0·83, 0·78–0·89; p<0·0001). These findings were consistent with a multiple imputation analysis that used information from all observations in the combined dataset.

Interpretation

The PAQC score, designed as an index of the technical quality of care for the three commonest causes of admission in children, is also associated with mortality. This finding suggests that it could be a meaningful summary measure of the quality of care for common inpatient conditions and supports a link between process quality and outcome. It might have potential for application in low-income countries with similar disease profiles and in which paediatric practice recommendations are based on WHO guidelines.

Funding

The Wellcome Trust.

Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II Score and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Score as Predictors for Severe Trauma Patients in the Intensive Care Unit

Background

The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II scoring system and the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scoring system are widely used for critically ill patients. We evaluated whether APACHE II score and SOFA score predict the outcome for trauma patients in the intensive care unit (ICU).

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed trauma patients admitted to the ICU in a single trauma center between January 2014 and December 2015. The APACHE II score was figured out based on the data acquired from the first 24 hours of admission; the SOFA score was evaluated based on the first 3 days in the ICU. A total of 241 patients were available for analysis. Injury Severity score, APACHE II score, and SOFA score were evaluated.

Results

The overall survival rate was 83.4%. The non-survival group had a significantly high APACHE II score (24.1 ± 8.1 vs. 12.3 ± 7.2, P < 0.001) and SOFA score (7.7 ± 1.7 vs. 4.3 ± 1.9, P < 0.001) at admission. SOFA score had the highest areas under the curve (0.904). During the first 3 days, SOFA score remained high in the non-survival group. In the non-survival group, cardiovascular system, neurological system, renal system, and coagulation system scores were significantly higher.

Conclusions

In ICU trauma patients, both SOFA and APACHE II scores were good predictors of outcome, with the SOFA score being the most effective. In trauma ICU patients, the trauma scoring system should be complemented, recognizing that multi-organ failure is an important factor for mortality.

Mortality prediction models in the general trauma population: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Trauma is the leading cause of death in individuals younger than 40 years. There are many different models for predicting patient outcome following trauma. To our knowledge, no comprehensive review has been performed on prognostic models for the general trauma population. Therefore, this review aimed to describe (1) existing mortality prediction models for the general trauma population, (2) the methodological quality and (3) which variables are most relevant for the model prediction of mortality in the general trauma population.

METHODS

An online search was conducted in June 2015 using Embase, Medline, Web of Science, Cinahl, Cochrane, Google Scholar and PubMed. Relevant English peer-reviewed articles that developed, validated or updated mortality prediction models in a general trauma population were included.

RESULTS

A total of 90 articles were included. The cohort sizes ranged from 100 to 1,115,389 patients, with overall mortality rates that ranged from 0.6% to 35%. The Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) was the most commonly used model. A total of 258 models were described in the articles, of which only 103 models (40%) were externally validated. Cases with missing values were often excluded and discrimination of the different prediction models ranged widely (AUROC between 0.59 and 0.98). The predictors were often included as dichotomized or categorical variables, while continuous variables showed better performance.

CONCLUSION

Researchers are still searching for a better mortality prediction model in the general trauma population. Models should 1) be developed and/or validated using an adequate sample size with sufficient events per predictor variable, 2) use multiple imputation models to address missing values, 3) use the continuous variant of the predictor if available and 4) incorporate all different types of readily available predictors (i.e., physiological variables, anatomical variables, injury cause/mechanism, and demographic variables). Furthermore, while mortality rates are decreasing, it is important to develop models that predict physical, cognitive status, or quality of life to measure quality of care.

Assessment of Progress in Early Trauma Care in Japan over the Past Decade: Achievements and Areas for Future Improvement

BACKGROUND

Strategies to optimize early trauma care have been introduced in Japan; however, detailed evaluation of the progress achieved has not been reported.

STUDY DESIGN

In this retrospective observational study, patients registered in the Japanese nationwide trauma registry were stratified according to probability of survival (Ps) > 0.5 or ≤ 0.5, respectively. Mortality rates during the first 2 days and in-hospital mortality rates were compared between early (2004 to 2009) and late cohorts (2010 to 2014) in each group, using mixed effects logistic regression analysis. Improvement in mortality rates during the first 2 days among subgroups were also assessed.

RESULTS

We analyzed 80,949 patients with Ps > 0.5 (early, 25,917; late, 55,032) and 8,898 patients with Ps ≤ 0.5 (early, 3,511; late, 5,387). Mortality rates during the first 2 days in both groups were significantly reduced (adjusted odds ratio [AOR; 95% CI] 0.61 [0.53 to 0.69] in the Ps > 0.5 group and 0.67 [0.60 to 0.76] in the Ps ≤ 0.5 group). In-hospital mortality rates in both groups were also significantly reduced (AOR [95% CI] 0.70 [0.64 to 0.76] and 0.73 [0.64 to 0.82], respectively). Significant improvements were observed in patients with a Revised Trauma Score ≥ 7 on arrival or an Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) of the abdomen ≥ 3. Limited improvements were observed in patients with head AIS ≥ 3 and in patients who underwent thoracotomy.

CONCLUSIONS

Although early trauma care has generally improved, specific progress was variable. Focused panel review of patients with severe head injury or undergoing thoracotomy may be an efficient strategy for further improvement.

Development and validation of a dynamic outcome prediction model for paracetamol-induced acute liver failure: a cohort study

BACKGROUND

Early, accurate prediction of survival is central to management of patients with paracetamol-induced acute liver failure to identify those needing emergency liver transplantation. Current prognostic tools are confounded by recent improvements in outcome independent of emergency liver transplantation, and constrained by static binary outcome prediction. We aimed to develop a simple prognostic tool to reflect current outcomes and generate a dynamic updated estimation of risk of death.

METHODS

Patients with paracetamol-induced acute liver failure managed at intensive care units in the UK (London, Birmingham, and Edinburgh) and Denmark (Copenhagen) were studied. We developed prognostic models, excluding patients who underwent transplantation, using Cox proportional hazards in a derivation dataset, and tested in initial and recent external validation datasets. Mortality was estimated in patients who had emergency liver transplantation. Model discrimination was assessed using area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and calibration by root mean square error (RMSE). Admission (day 1) variables of age, Glasgow coma scale, arterial pH and lactate, creatinine, international normalised ratio (INR), and cardiovascular failure were used to derive an initial predictive model, with a second (day 2) model including additional changes in INR and lactate.

FINDINGS

We developed and validated new high-performance statistical models to support decision making in patients with paracetamol-induced acute liver failure. Applied to the derivation dataset (n=350), the AUROC for 30-day survival was 0·92 (95% CI 0·88-0·96) using the day 1 model and 0·93 (0·88-0·97) using the day 2 model. In the initial validation dataset (n=150), the AUROC for 30-day survival was 0·89 (0·84-0·95) using the day 1 model and 0·90 (0·85-0·95) using the day 2 model. Assessment of calibration using RMSE in prediction of 30-day survival gave values of 0·1642 for the day 1 model and 0·0626 for the day 2 model. In the external validation dataset (n=412), the AUROC for 30-day survival was 0·91 (0·87-0·94) using the day 1 model and 0·91 (0·88-0·95) using the day 2 model, and assessment of calibration using RMSE gave values of 0·079 for the day 1 model and 0·107 for the day 2 model. Applied to patients who underwent emergency liver transplantation (n=116), median predicted 30-day survival was 51% (95% CI 33-85).

INTERPRETATION

The models developed here show very good discrimination and calibration, confirmed in independent datasets, and suggest that many patients undergoing transplantation based on existing criteria might have survived with medical management alone. The role and indications for emergency liver transplantation in paracetamol-induced acute liver failure require re-evaluation.

FUNDING

Foundation for Liver Research.

Using an Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) Model for Prediction of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) Outcome and Length of Stay at Hospital in Traumatic Patients

INTRODUCTION

Currently applications of artificial neural network (ANN) models in outcome predicting of patients have made considerable strides in clinical medicine. This project aims to use a neural network for predicting survival and length of stay of patients in the ward and the intensive care unit (ICU) of trauma patients and to obtain predictive power of the current method.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We used Neuro-Solution software (NS), a leading-edge neural network software for data mining to create highly accurate and predictive models using advanced preprocessing techniques, intelligent automated neural network topology through cutting-edge distributed computing. This ANN model was used based on back-propagation, feed forward, and fed by Trauma and injury severity score (TRISS) components, biochemical findings, risk factors and outcome of 95 patients. In the next step a trained ANN was used to predict outcome, ICU and ward length of stay for 30 test group patients by processing primary data.

RESULTS

The sensitivity and specificity of an ANN for predicting the outcome of traumatic patients in this study calculated 75% and 96.26%, respectively. 93.33% of outcome predictions obtained by ANN were correct. In 3.33% of predictions, results of ANN were optimistic and 3.33% of cases predicted ANN results were worse than the actual outcome of patients. Neither difference in average length of stay in the ward and ICU with predicted ANN results, were statistically significant. Correlation coefficient of two variables of ANN prediction and actual length of stay in hospital was equal to 0.643.

CONCLUSION

Using ANN model based on clinical and biochemical variables in patients with moderate to severe traumatic injury, resulted in satisfactory outcome prediction when applied to a test set.

Module modified acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II: predicting the mortality of neuro-critical disease

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to conduct and assess a module modified acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (MM-APACHE) II model, based on disease categories modified-acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (DCM-APACHE) II model, in predicting mortality more accurately in neuro-intensive care units (N-ICUs).

METHODS

In total, 1686 patients entered into this prospective study. Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) II scores of all patients on admission and worst 24-, 48-, 72-hour scores were obtained. Neurological diagnosis on admission was classified into five categories: cerebral infarction, intracranial hemorrhage, neurological infection, spinal neuromuscular (SNM) disease, and other neurological diseases. The APACHE II scores of cerebral infarction, intracranial hemorrhage, and neurological infection patients were used for building the MM-APACHE II model.

RESULTS

There were 1386 cases for cerebral infarction disease, intracranial hemorrhage disease, and neurological infection disease. The logistic linear regression showed that 72-hour APACHE II score (Wals  =  173.04, P < 0.001) and disease classification (Wals  =  12.51, P  =  0.02) were of importance in forecasting hospital mortality. Module modified acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II model, built on the variables of the 72-hour APACHE II score and disease category, had good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AU-ROC  =  0.830)) and calibration (χ2  =  12.518, P  =  0.20), and was better than the Knaus APACHE II model (AU-ROC  =  0.778).

DISCUSSION

The APACHE II severity of disease classification system cannot provide accurate prognosis for all kinds of the diseases. A MM-APACHE II model can accurately predict hospital mortality for cerebral infarction, intracranial hemorrhage, and neurologic infection patients in N-ICU.

The ability of two scoring systems to predict in-hospital mortality of patients with moderate and severe traumatic brain injuries in a Moroccan intensive care unit

Aim of Study:

We aim to assess and to compare the predicting power for in-hospital mortality (IHM) of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation-II (APACHE-II) and the Simplified Acute Physiology Score-II (SAPS-II) for traumatic brain injury (TBI).

Patients and Methods:

This retrospective cohort study was conducted during a period of 2 years and 9 months in a Moroccan intensive care unit. Data were collected during the first 24 h of each admission. The clinical and laboratory parameters were analyzed and used as per each scoring system to calculate the scores. Univariate and multivariate analyses through regression logistic models were performed, to predict IHM after moderate and severe TBIs. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC), specificities and sensitivities were determined and also compared.

Results:

A total of 225 patients were enrolled. The observed IHM was 51.5%. The univariate analysis showed that the initial Glasgow coma scale (GCS) was lower in nonsurviving patients (mean GCS = 6) than the survivors (mean GCS = 9) with a statistically significant difference (P = 0.0024). The APACHE-II and the SAPS-II of the nonsurviving patients were higher than those of the survivors (respectively 20.4 ± 6.8 and 31.2 ± 13.6 for nonsurvivors vs. 15.7 ± 5.4 and 22.7 ± 10.3 for survivors) with a statistically significant difference (P = 0.0032 for APACHE-II and P = 0.0045 for SAPS-II). Multivariate analysis: APACHE-II was superior for predicting IHM (AUROC = 0.92).

Conclusion:

The APACHE-II is an interesting tool to predict IHM of head injury patients. This is particularly relevant in Morocco, where TBI is a greater public health problem than in many other countries.

Intensive care unit design and mortality in trauma patients

BACKGROUND

The architecture of medical care facilities ca affect the safety of a patient, but it is unknown if the architecture affects outcomes. We hypothesized that patients in rooms who are more visible from the central nursing station would experience better outcomes than those patients in less visible rooms.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 773 patients admitted to the trauma intensive care service over a 12-mo period were retrospectively evaluated. Outcomes were hospital mortality and intensive care unit (ICU) length of stay (LOS). The unit is designed with a bank of high-visibility rooms (HVRs) directly across from the nursing station and two side sections of low-visibility rooms (LVRs). No formal triage occurs, but patients are prioritized to HVRs as available.

RESULTS

Patients in the HVRs had a 16% mortality (52 of 320); meanwhile, the patients in the LVRs experienced an 11% mortality (49 of 448, P = 0.03). ICU mortality did not differ significantly when controlling for age, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), Head Abbreviated Injury Score, and the Injury Severity Score (ISS) (P = 0.076). Age, CCI, Head Abbreviated Injury Score, and ISS did individually correlate with mortality (age: P = 0.0008; CCI: P = 0.017; and ISS: P < 0.0001). Visibility was not a predictor of ICU LOS or complications among survivors (mean ICU HVR LOS = 4.8 d; mean ICU LVR LOS = 4.7; P = 0.88, n = 661). Only ISS was a significant predictor of ICU LOS and complications (P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Trauma patient room placement within the ICU does not relate to mortality rate significantly when corrected for patient acuity. Instead, variables such as age, ISS, and CCI are associated with mortality. A policy of placing more critically ill patients in HVRs may prevent increased mortality in high-acuity patients.

Rapid imaging protocol in trauma: a whole-body dual-source CT scan

The purpose of this study is to determine whether a single acquisition whole-body trauma multi-detector CT scan is able to reduce resuscitation time, scan time, and effective radiation dose without compromising diagnostic quality in the setting of polytrauma. Retrospective analysis of 33 trauma patients undergoing single acquisition whole-body CT with injury severity scores of ≥ 16 was compared to 34 patients imaged with a segmented whole-body CT protocol. Time spent in the emergency department, effective radiation dose, image quality, and mortality rates were compared. The single acquisition group spent 53.7 % less time in the emergency department prior to imaging (p=0.0044) and decreased scanning time by 25 %. The protocol yielded a 24.5 % reduction in mean effective radiation dose (24.66 mSv vs. 32.67 mSv, p<0.0001). The image noise was similar in both groups. Standardized mortality ratios were comparable. The single acquisition protocol significantly reduces time spent in the emergency department by allowing faster imaging at a lower radiation dose while maintaining image quality. Other contributors to reduction in radiation dose include use of dual-source CT technology, removal of delayed CT intravenous pyelogram, and arm positioning.

Systematic review of predictive performance of injury severity scoring tools

Many injury severity scoring tools have been developed over the past few decades. These tools include the Injury Severity Score (ISS), New ISS (NISS), Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) and International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-based Injury Severity Score (ICISS). Although many studies have endeavored to determine the ability of these tools to predict the mortality of injured patients, their results have been inconsistent. We conducted a systematic review to summarize the predictive performances of these tools and explore the heterogeneity among studies. We defined a relevant article as any research article that reported the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve as a measure of predictive performance. We conducted an online search using MEDLINE and Embase. We evaluated the quality of each relevant article using a quality assessment questionnaire consisting of 10 questions. The total number of positive answers was reported as the quality score of the study. Meta-analysis was not performed due to the heterogeneity among studies. We identified 64 relevant articles with 157 AUROCs of the tools. The median number of positive answers to the questionnaire was 5, ranging from 2 to 8. Less than half of the relevant studies reported the version of the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) and/or ICD (37.5%). The heterogeneity among the studies could be observed in a broad distribution of crude mortality rates of study data, ranging from 1% to 38%. The NISS was mostly reported to perform better than the ISS when predicting the mortality of blunt trauma patients. The relative performance of the ICSS against the AIS-based tools was inconclusive because of the scarcity of studies. The performance of the ICISS appeared to be unstable because the performance could be altered by the type of formula and survival risk ratios used. In conclusion, high-quality studies were limited. The NISS might perform better in the mortality prediction of blunt injuries than the ISS. Additional studies are required to standardize the derivation of the ICISS and determine the relative performance of the ICISS against the AIS-based tools.

Trauma profile at a tertiary intensive care unit in Saudi Arabia

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Trauma is a leading cause of death worldwide and in Saudi Arabia. This study describes the injury profiles and ICU outcomes of patients in a tertiary trauma care referral center in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A retrospective analysis of ICU data collected prospectively over 5 years in a 21-bed medical and surgical intensive care unit (ICU) in a tertiary care teaching hospital.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We collected ICU data on all patients admitted secondary to motor vehicle accidents (MVAs), excluding patients younger than 18 years, brain dead patients and readmissions. We collected data on age, gender, and Glasgow coma scale score at admission, injury severity scores, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score, and other data. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify predictors of mortality.

RESULTS

During the study period, of 1659 patients, MVA was the most common cause of injury (78.4%), followed by pedestrian accident (12.7%). ICU mortality included 221 patients (13.3%) during the study period. Severe head injury, age > 60 years, Glascow coma scale score, injury severity scores, APACHE II and international normalized ratio were independent predictors of mortality.

CONCLUSION

MVA is very common in our country and leads to significant mortality and morbidity. Public education and strict law enforcement are needed to reduce these adverse events.

Functional outcome after head injury: comparison of 12-45 year old male and female hormonally active patients

OBJECTIVES

Head injury is the leading cause of death in patients with major trauma, but little is known of post-trauma rehabilitation morbidity in Hong Kong. The purpose of this study was to identify factors affecting functional outcome in hormonally active patients 6 months after head injury.

METHODS

Secondary analysis of the trauma registry database with data collected prospectively at two trauma centres between January 2001 and December 2007. Demographic and trauma data for patients aged 12-45 years with a head Abbreviated Injury Score ≥3 were analysed. The Glasgow outcome scale (GOS) was used for assessment and was assessed 6 months after head injury. The primary outcome measure was a composite poor outcome, namely "dead, vegetative and severely disabled" measured using the GOS.

RESULTS

Of 698 patients included in the study (mean age 29 years; range 12-45 years; 75.8% male), 581 (83.2%) had a good outcome, and 117 (16.8%) met the primary outcome measure, namely a poor outcome, including 88 (12.6%) patients who died. 453 (64.9%) patients had an injury severity score (ISS) of 16-40, and 102 (14.6%) patients had an ISS>40. 220 (31.5%) patients underwent head injury related operation. The mean length of stay in the intensive care unit (ICU) was 3.9 days. Univariate analysis showed that high ISS, Emergency Department (ED) systolic blood pressure (SBP)>160mmHg or <90mmHg, respiratory rate<12/min or >24/min, low ED Glasgow Coma Score (GCS), trauma call activation, head related operation and ICU admission were related to poor outcome. Multivariate analysis showed that high ISS, low or high ED SBP and low ED GCS were related to poor functional outcome.

CONCLUSION

This study showed that ISS, ED SBP and ED GCS were related to poor functional outcome. Gender showed no statistically significant relationship with functional outcome.

Comparison of the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation score (APACHE) II with GCS in predicting hospital mortality of neurosurgical intensive care unit patients

Background:

The Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) is popular, simple, and reliable, and provides information about the level of consciousness in trauma patients. However, a systemic evaluation scale especially in patients with multiple traumas is so important. The revised Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation system type 2 (APACHE II) is a physiologically based system including physiological variables. This study compares the efficacy of the predicting power for mortality and functional outcome of GCS and APACHEII in patients with multiple traumas in intensive care unit.

Methods:

This study included the patients with head injury associated with systemic trauma admitted in the ICU of Shahid Rajaee Hospital in 2007 and 2008. Sensitivity, specificity and correct prediction of outcome by GCS and APACHE II were assessed and compared.

Results:

This study included 93 patients (79 males, 14 females; mean age 60.5; range 14 to 87 years) with head injury associated with systemic trauma in 2007 and 2008. Mortality increased in the elderly group. The mean survival score using APACHE II was 36.5 and death score was 67.4. These values using GCS were 10.3 and 6.8, respectively.

Conclusion:

For the assessment of mortality, the GCS score still provides simple, rapid and effective assessment in head injury patients, however, for the prediction of mortality in patients with multiple trauma APACHE II is superior to GCS since it includes multiple systemic parameters in these patients.

A prospective investigation of long-term cognitive impairment and psychological distress in moderately versus severely injured trauma intensive care unit survivors without intracranial hemorrhage

BACKGROUND

The primary objective was to prospectively determine the 12-month prevalence of cognitive impairment and psychologic difficulties in moderately versus severely injured adult trauma intensive care unit (TICU) survivors without intracranial hemorrhage.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study in which patients were followed for 1 year after hospital discharge. A total of 173 patients from the Vanderbilt TICU who had an Injury Severity Score (ISS) of >15 (indicative of moderately severe trauma) were enrolled between July 2006 and June 2007. Patients were screened for delirium on a daily basis in the TICU by study personnel via the confusion assessment method of the ICU, and preexisting cognitive impairment was assessed through a surrogate-based evaluation using the short form of the Informant Questionnaire for Cognitive Decline in the Elderly. Of these patients, 108 were evaluated 1 year after hospital discharge with a comprehensive battery of neuropsychological tests and depression and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) instruments. Cognitive impairment was defined as having two neuropsychological test scores 1.5 SD below the mean or one neuropsychological test score 2 SD below the mean.

RESULTS

Fifty-nine patients (55%) demonstrated cognitive impairment at 12-month follow-up, with three of these patients (5.5%) having preexisting impairment. Clinically significant symptoms of depression and PTSD occurred in 40% and 26% of patients, respectively. No significant differences in cognitive impairment (59% vs. 50%), depressive symptoms (35% vs. 44%), and symptoms of PTSD (22% vs. 28%) were identified between moderately (ISS 15-25) and severely (ISS>25) injured TICU survivors, respectively (all p>0.05). In addition, multivariate logistic regression analysis found that moderately injured trauma patients had a similar rate of cognitive impairment when compared with those with severe injury at 12-month follow-up (p=0.25).

CONCLUSION

Long-term cognitive impairment is highly prevalent in TICU survivors without intracranial hemorrhage as are psychologic difficulties. Injury severity, concussion status, and delirium duration were not risk factors for the development of neuropsychological deficits in this cohort. Individuals with moderately severe injuries seem to be as likely as their more severely injured counterparts to experience marked cognitive impairment and psychologic difficulties; thus, screening efforts should focus on this potentially overlooked patient group.

Trauma intensive care unit survival: how good is an educated guess?

BACKGROUND

Resource utilization in medicine is becoming a more and more urgent issue with ongoing national discussions on healthcare coverage. In the management of a trauma system, large amounts of resources and money are expended on individual patients in hope of a "great save." In addition, those of us caring for these patients are required to estimate outcomes daily to the family in an effort to choose the best course of care for an individual patient. Hence, we undertook a study to analyze the accuracy of outcomes predictions of various members of the healthcare team.

METHODS

During a period of 38 months (July 2005 to August 2008), an observational study of patients admitted to a Level I Trauma Center Intensive Care Unit (ICU) was undertaken. Institutional Review Board permission was obtained before starting the study. Only patients older than 18 years were included. Patients who were moribund or expected discharge within 72 hours were excluded.Our traumatized ICU patients are cared for by a multidisciplinary team consisting of a trauma/ICU attending, all of whom have additional certification in surgical critical care and who rotate through the ICU on a weekly basis, a surgical ICU fellow, residents and medical students of several levels of training who rotate on a monthly basis, trauma advanced-level practitioners who rotate weekly, and bedside ICU nurses who work routine shifts. Respiratory therapists, nutritionists, ICU pharmacists, and other members of the rounding team were not included in the study because they do not provide global patient care. Regardless of admitting physician, the patients are managed by the team, and our practice of care is similar across the group, based on protocols and consensus.For each of the study patients, a survey tool was filled out by the ICU rounding team on hospital day 1 and hospital day 3. The tool was completed by members of the team providing global care to the patient and varied depending on the members of the group at each day's rounds. All current and admission data on injuries, study and laboratory results, and current patient status were available to all members of the team. Each member was expected to fill out the survey tool independently, and the results of the tool were not discussed during rounds.Concurrently, data were collected by the ICU fellow and research nurse. These data and the results of the survey tools were entered in a database for analysis after patient discharge. A retrospective analysis was undertaken to analyze the relative accuracy of the care, team members' assessment, and actual survival. Statistical analysis was done using by-chance accuracy comparisons.

RESULTS

Two hundred twenty-three patients had 326 observations performed. Day 3 accuracy improved for most groups. In all groups, accuracy was found to be statistically significantly better than by-chance accuracy. Given that the majority of patients in the trauma population are survivors, sensitivity and positive predictive value of the observer's ability to predict death were also evaluated.

CONCLUSIONS

Although significantly better than chance prediction, the ability of members of the ICU team to predict survival of trauma patients remains poor, particularly on initial evaluation. A period of clinical observation improves the accuracy. Unfortunately, experience of the observer does not seem to improve accuracy of survival prediction. This data indicate that care must be taken when describing likely outcomes to patient family members.

Prognostic value of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment and Simplified Acute Physiology II Score compared with trauma scores in the outcome of multiple-trauma patients

BACKGROUND

Prospective data regarding the prognostic value of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score in comparison with the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS II) and trauma scores on the outcome of multiple-trauma patients are lacking.

METHODS

Single-center evaluation (n = 237, Injury Severity Score [ISS] >16; mean ISS = 29). Uni- and multivariate analysis of SAPS II, SOFA, revised trauma, polytrauma, and trauma and ISS scores (TRISS) was performed.

RESULTS

The 30-day mortality was 22.8% (n = 54). SOFA day 1 was significantly higher in nonsurvivors compared with survivors (P < .001) and correlated well with the length of intensive care unit stay (r = .50, P < .001). Logistic regression revealed SAPS II to have the best predictive value of 30-day mortality (area under the receiver operating characteristic = .86 +/- .03). The SOFA score significantly added prognostic information with regard to mortality to both SAPS II and TRISS.

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of critically ill and trauma scores may increase the accuracy of mortality prediction in multiple-trauma patients.

What limits for acute care in the elderly?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review aims to address the important question of the increasing life expectancy and the aging population in the healthcare system today. We try to give some elements that will help the reflection about the ethical stakes balancing the necessity of care in the increasing number of elderly patients and the limited resources available, in the special context of acute care.

RECENT FINDINGS

There is growing evidence that the chronological age itself is not a reliable marker of bad prognosis or of mortality. The new concept of frailty may better correlate with the aging process of the elderly. The frailty index is an integrative approach considering the multiple factors impacting on the aging individual. Applied in the practical arena, it might become a useful tool for clinicians.

SUMMARY

Aging implies many biological modifications at molecular, cellular, organic levels as well as of the behavior. Some aspects of these processes and their consequences on health are described. The frailty concept is detailed, and its potential interest explained. We conclude that the measurement of aging phenomenon, including the frailty index, may help us to better assess the true health and the required therapeutics of elderly patients.

Evaluation of trauma care applying TRISS methodology in a Caribbean developing country

There have been conflicting reports regarding the applicability of Trauma Injury Severity Score (TRISS) methodology to evaluate trauma care in a developing country setting. The objective of this study was to apply TRISS methodology to evaluate trauma care in the public hospitals of a Caribbean developing country. A prospective, observational study was conducted in the three major general hospitals in Trinidad. Major trauma patients were included. Demographic data, waiting time in the Emergency Department, and nature of injury (blunt or penetrating) were noted. Revised Trauma Score, Injury Severity Score, and Glasgow Coma Scale were applied to all patients on admission. Hospital outcomes were noted. Predicted outcomes were calculated for adult patients using TRISS methodology. M, Z statistics and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis were done. There were 326 trauma patients studied, of whom 279 adults were evaluated by the TRISS methodology. Men were more frequently involved in trauma than women; there was more blunt trauma than penetrating trauma. The M statistic was 0.98 and the overall Z statistic was 5.81. The ROC curve analysis showed TRISS to be a fair discriminator in the study case-mix with an area under the curve of 0.82 (95% confidence interval 0.69-0.96). There is a considerable disparity between predicted and observed outcomes when trauma patients are evaluated by the TRISS methodology in a developing country setting.

Intensive insulin protocol improves glucose control and is associated with a reduction in intensive care unit mortality

BACKGROUND

Intensive insulin therapy to maintain serum glucose levels between 80 and 110 mg/dL has previously been shown to reduce mortality in the critically ill; recent data, however, have called this benefit into question. In addition, maintaining uniform, tight glucose control is challenging and resource demanding. We hypothesized that, by use of a protocol, tight glucose control could be achieved in the surgical trauma intensive care unit (STICU), and that improved glucose control would be beneficial.

STUDY DESIGN

During the study period, a progressively more rigorous approach to glucose control was used, culminating in an implemented protocol in 2005. We reviewed STICU patients' blood glucose levels, measured by point-of-care testing, from 2003 to 2006. Mortality was tracked over the course of the study, and patient charts were retrospectively reviewed to measure illness and injury severity.

RESULTS

Mean blood glucose levels steadily improved (p < 0.01). In addition to absolute improvements in glucose control, total variability of glucose ranges in the STICU steadily diminished. A reduction in STICU mortality was temporally associated with implementation of the protocol (p < 0.01). There were fewer intraabdominal abscesses and fewer postinjury ventilator days after implementation of the protocol. There was a small increase in the incidence of clinically relevant hypoglycemia.

CONCLUSIONS

Improvements in glucose control in the ICU can be achieved by using a protocol for intensive insulin therapy. In our ICU, this was temporally associated with a significant reduction in mortality.

Assessment of three different mortality prediction models in four well-defined critical care patient groups at two points in time: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Mortality prediction systems have been calculated and validated from large mixed ICU populations. However, in daily practice it is often more important to know how a model performs in a patient subgroup at a specific ICU. Thus, we assessed the performance of three mortality prediction models in four well-defined patient groups in one centre.

METHODS

A total of 960 consecutive adult patients with either severe head injury (n = 299), multiple injuries (n = 208), abdominal aortic aneurysm (n = 267) or spontaneous subarachnoid haemorrhage (n = 186) were included. Calibration, discrimination and standardized mortality ratios were determined for Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, Mortality Probability Model II (at 0 and 24 h) and Injury Severity Score. Effective mortality was assessed at hospital discharge and after 1 yr.

RESULTS

Eight hundred and fifty-five (89%) patients survived until hospital discharge. Over all four patient groups, Mortality Probability Model II (24 h) had the best predictive accuracy (standardized mortality ratio 0.62) and discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.9), but Simplified Acute Physiology Score II performed well for patients with subarachnoid haemorrhage. Overall calibration was poor for all models (Hosmer-Lemeshow Type C-values between 20 and 26). Injury Severity Score had the worst discrimination in trauma patients. All models over-estimated hospital mortality in all four patient groups, and these estimates were more like the mortality after 1 yr.

CONCLUSIONS

In our surgical ICU, Mortality Probability Model II (24 h) performed slightly better than Simplified Acute Physiology Score II in terms of overall mortality prediction and discrimination; Injury Severity Score was the worst model for mortality prediction in trauma patients.

Cost of Gram-negative resistance*

OBJECTIVE

It is unclear that infections with Gram-negative rods resistant to at least one major class of antibiotics (rGNR) have a greater effect on patient morbidity than infections caused by sensitive strains (sGNR). We wished to test the hypothesis that rGNR infections are associated with higher resource utilization.

DESIGN

Retrospective observational cohort study of prospectively collected data.

SETTING

University hospital surgical intensive care unit and ward.

PATIENTS

Surgical patients with at least one GNR infection.

MEASUREMENTS

We compared admissions treated for rGNR infection with those with sGNR infections. Primary outcomes were total hospital costs and hospital length of stay. Other outcomes included antibiotic treatment cost, in-hospital death, and intensive care unit length of stay. After univariate analysis comparing outcomes after rGNR infection with those after sGNR infection, multivariate linear regression models for hospital cost and length of stay were created to account for potential confounders.

MAIN RESULTS

Cost data were available for 604 surgical admissions treated for at least one GNR infection (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria), 137 (23%) of which were rGNR infections. Admissions with rGNR infections were associated with a higher severity of illness at the time of infection (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, 17.6 +/- 0.6 vs. 13.9 +/- 0.3), had higher median hospital costs ($80,500 vs. $29,604, p < .0001) and median antibiotic costs ($2,607 vs. $758, p < .0001), and had longer median hospital length of stay (29 vs. 13 days, p < .0001) and median intensive care unit length of stay (13 days vs. 1 day, p < .0001). Infection with rGNR within the first 7 days of admission was independently predictive of increased hospital cost (incremental increase in median hospital cost estimated at $11,075; 95% confidence interval, $3,282-$20,099).

CONCLUSIONS

Early infection with rGNR is associated with a high economic burden, which is in part related to increased antibiotic utilization compared with infection with sensitive organisms. Efforts to control overuse of antibiotics should be pursued.

Readmission to Surgical Intensive Care Increases Severity-Adjusted Patient Mortality

BACKGROUND

This study aims to determine whether severity-adjusted outcomes including mortality are adversely impacted by readmission to a surgical intensive care unit (SICU) during the same hospital stay.

METHODS

The study included all patients admitted to the 20-bed tertiary care SICU in an urban teaching Level I trauma center and multiorgan transplant center from January 1, 1996 to December 31, 2001. This was a prospective observational study with secondary data analysis. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) and Simplified Acute Physiology (SAPS) severity scores were calculated by a clinical information system. Outcomes were extracted from a computerized data warehouse.

RESULTS

In-hospital mortality and SICU length of stay (LOS) were measured for patients admitted and readmitted to the SICU. Of 10,840 patients admitted to the SICU, 296 (2.73%) required readmission to the SICU during the same hospital stay. The length of the original SICU stay was 4.9 +/- 6.7 days for readmitted patients compared with 3.2 +/- 6.0 days for nonreadmitted patients (p < 0.001). Readmitted patients had a higher mean APACHE II score on the day of original SICU discharge compared with nonreadmitted patients, 15.7 +/- 6.7 versus 13.8 +/- 7.1 (p < 0.001). The average APACHE II score increased from 15.7 +/- 6.7 to 18.1 +/- 8.6 between the day of SICU discharge and readmission (p < 0.001) and SAPS increased from 12.2 +/- 4.8 to 13.5 +/- 5.4 (p < 0.001). The distributions of severity-adjusted hospital mortality for both APACHE II and SAPS revealed that readmission to the SICU significantly increased mortality independent of the admission severity score.

CONCLUSIONS

Readmission to the SICU significantly increases the risk of death beyond that predicted by the APACHE II or SAPS scores alone. Higher APACHE II and SAPS scores upon discharge from the SICU and longer SICU LOS are associated with an increased incidence of readmission to the SICU on the same hospital stay. These results may be used to optimize the timing of SICU discharge and reduce the chance of readmission to intensive care.

Risk Scoring in Perioperative and Surgical Intensive Care Patients: A Review

PURPOSE

Assessing the risk and predicting the outcome of surgery, trauma, and surgical intensive care is an important aspect of perioperative practice. There have been attempts to devise and validate many scoring systems to predict the prognosis of patients having a similar severity of illness. This article reviews some of the commonly used systems with respect to their development, strengths, and limitations.

SOURCES

Published literature describing risk assessment scores and physiologic scoring systems for preoperative assessment, trauma, and surgical intensive care patients.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Risk scores used in preoperative evaluation assist the clinician in optimizing the patient before, during, and after surgery. Scoring systems applied in intensive care units are useful as guidelines rather than accurate predictors of prognosis for individual patient. Many models are used for audit purposes, and some are used as performance measures and quality indicators of a unit; however, both utilities are controversial because of poor adjustment of these systems to case-mixtures.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk assessment scores may assist in the perioperative risk evaluation with respect to organ systems. Prognostication of critically ill patients belonging to a category of illness may be done using physiological scoring systems taking into account the difference in the case-mix of the particular unit.

Admission lactate level and the APACHE II score are the most useful predictors of prognosis following torso trauma

BACKGROUND

Markers of dysoxic metabolism and scoring systems for triage have been widely used in critically injured patients. However, so far, no model is sufficiently reliable to predict the outcome in trauma victims. The purposes of the present study, therefore, were to determine whether a correlation exits between the main trauma scoring systems and the markers of dysoxic metabolism. Moreover, to assess if any of the admission parameters can be used to indicate outcome.

METHODS

Sixty-four patients were included in this study. Admission data, including arterial lactate level, base deficit (BD), pH, revised trauma score (RTS), injury severity score (ISS), shock index (SI), and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II), were collected and analysed by logistic regression analysis. Degree of association between continuous variables were calculated by either Pearson's or Spearman's correlation coefficient, where applicable. The dependence of lactate on two or more other variables was evaluated by multiple linear regression analysis.

RESULTS

Logistic regression analysis showed that the fatal outcome following major torso trauma was principally associated with the APACHE II score and lactate. The specificity and the sensitivity of this logistic regression model was 94.6 and 79.2%, respectively. According to standardised linear regression coefficients, BD was the best single predictor of lactate, and APACHE II added a small amount of predictive power. The proportion of total variation in lactate level explained by base deficit, APACHE II and age is R2=85.2%.

CONCLUSION

APACHE II score and the arterial lactate level are the most important determinants of clinical outcome in critically injured patients. A correlation exits between lactate and APACHE II and between lactate and base deficit.

Effect of acute physiologic derangements on outcome after subarachnoid hemorrhage

OBJECTIVE

To determine the effect that acute physiologic derangements have on outcome after subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) and to design a composite score summarizing these abnormalities.

DESIGN

Prospective observational study.

SETTING

Neuroscience intensive care unit in a tertiary care academic center.

PATIENTS

Consecutive cohort of 413 patients with SAH admitted within 3 days of SAH onset with 3-month modified Rankin Scale scores.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

RESULTS

Among 20 physiologic variables assessed within 24 hrs of admission, four were independently associated with death or severe disability (modified Rankin Scale score, 4-6) at 3 months in a multivariate analysis: arterio-alveolar gradient of >125 mm Hg (odds ratio [OR], 4.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.7-7.6), serum bicarbonate of <20 mmol/L (OR, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.6-5.6), serum glucose of >180 mg/dL (OR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.6-4.8), and mean arterial pressure of <70 or >130 mm Hg (OR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.0-2.9). Based on their proportional contribution to outcome, we constructed the SAH Physiologic Derangement Score (SAH-PDS; range, 0-8) by assigning the following weights for abnormal findings: arterio-alveolar gradient, 3 points; bicarbonate, 2 points; glucose, 2 points; and mean arterial pressure, 1 point. After controlling for known predictors of death or severe disability (age, admission neurologic status, loss of consciousness, aneurysm size, intraventricular hemorrhage, and rebleeding), the SAH Physiologic Derangement Score was independently associated with poor outcome (OR, 1.3 for each point increase; 95% CI, 1.1-1.6). By contrast, the systemic inflammatory response syndrome score and the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II physiologic subscore did not add predictive value to the model.

CONCLUSION

Acute interventions specifically targeting hypoxemia, metabolic acidosis, hyperglycemia, and cardiovascular instability may improve the outcome of SAH patients. The SAH Physiologic Derangement Score may prove useful for rapidly quantifying the severity of important physiologic derangements in acute SAH.

Investigation of the course of proinflammatory and anti-inflammatory cytokines after burn sepsis

Cytokines have been considered as important participants in the post-burn pathophysiological process. The aim of this study was to investigate the course of a proinflammatory cytokine interleukin-8 (IL-8) and an anti-inflammatory cytokine IL-10 in burned patients and whether there was a correlation between mortality and serum levels of these cytokines. Thirty-six acutely burned patients, admitted to Ankara Numune hospital burn unit, entered into the study. A series of serum samples were collected, and serum levels of IL-8 and IL-10 were determined using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay kit. According to definition utilised, 21 patients developed septic shock and nine of them died. There was no mortality among the 17 non-septic patients. In all 36 patients, there was an increase in serum IL-8 levels, and a peak level was detected shortly after burn injury. The peak IL-8 value of the non-survivors was greater when compared with that of the others. On admission, a significant difference in serum IL-8 values was found between survivors and those who died. In all patients, a peak level of IL-10 was detected between 5 and 9 days of injury. In non-septic survivors, this peak level was less when compared with that of the others. After this peak level, in all patients, serum IL-10 levels showed a decrease, but in non-survivors, a second peak level was detected. A greater understanding of the pathology of the burn sepsis allows rationale use and assessment of current therapies. The results obtained in this study provide useful information on the formulation approaches to this task. Also, IL-8 and IL-10 are prognostic factors in burn sepsis.

Triage scoring systems, severity of illness measures, and mortality prediction models in pediatric trauma

Trauma triage scores, severity of illness measures, and mortality prediction models quantitate severity of injury and stratify patients according to a specified outcome. Triage scoring systems are typically used to assist prehospital personnel determine which patients require trauma center care, but they are not recommended as the sole determinant of triage. Severity of illness measures and mortality prediction models are used in clinical and health services research for risk-adjusted outcomes analyses and institutional benchmarking. As clinicians and researchers, it is imperative that we be knowledgeable of the methodologies and applications of these scoring and risk prediction systems to ensure their quality and appropriate utilization.

Characteristics of prophylactic antibiotic strategies after penetrating abdominal trauma at a level I urban trauma center: a comparison with the East guidelines

BACKGROUND

Antibiotic prophylaxis, along with surgical intervention, is a key component in reducing infection in patients after penetrating abdominal trauma (PAT). Recent guidelines from the Eastern Association for the Surgery of Trauma (EAST) recommend that prophylaxis for < or = 24 hours is adequate for most patients. We compared antibiotic prophylaxis practices after PAT at our institution with EAST guidelines, quantified the incidence of infection, and identified risk factors for infection.

METHODS

This study was a retrospective review of patients with PAT requiring a therapeutic laparotomy between July 1998 and January 2001.

RESULTS

Antibiotic prophylaxis met EAST guidelines criteria in 21 of 97 patients (22%). There was a trend toward higher infection rates (18 of 76 vs. 3 of 21; = 0.273) when prophylaxis exceeded EAST recommendations. Multivariate analysis revealed blood transfusions to be the only predictor of infection (odds ratio, 6.9; 95% confidence interval, 2.42-19.95).

CONCLUSION

Despite prophylactic antibiotic use often exceeding EAST criteria, many patients still developed infection. Blood transfusion was the only significant risk factor for infection.

External validation of a modified model of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II for orthotopic liver transplant patients

INTRODUCTION

The purpose of the study was to validate the newly derived postoperative orthotopic liver transplantation (OLTX)-specific diagnostic weight for the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II mortality prediction system in independent databases.

METHODS

Medical records of 174 liver transplantation patients admitted postoperatively to the adult intensive care units at King Fahad National Guard Hospital and the University of Wisconsin were reviewed, and data on age, sex, the underlying liver disease, APACHE II scores and the hospital outcome were collected. Predicted mortality was calculated using: 1) the original APACHE II diagnostic weight of postoperative other gastrointestinal surgery and 2) the newly derived OLTX-specific diagnostic category weight. Standardized mortality ratio and 95% confidence intervals were calculated. Calibration was evaluated with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit C-statistic. Discrimination was tested by 2 x 2 classification matrices and by computing the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves. Patient characteristics and outcome data were compared between the two hospitals.

RESULTS

APACHE II significantly overestimated mortality when the original diagnostic weight was used, but provided a closer estimate of mortality with the OTLX-specific diagnostic weight. The C-statistic analysis showed better calibration for the new approach; discrimination was also improved. The performances of the prediction systems were similar in the two hospitals. The new model provided more accurate estimates of hospital mortality in each hospital.

DISCUSSION

APACHE II provided an accurate estimate of mortality in liver transplant patients when the OLTX-specific diagnostic weight was used. With the new model, APACHE II can be used as a valid mortality prediction system in this group of patients.

The use of polynomial neural networks for mortality prediction in uncontrolled venous and arterial hemorrhage

BACKGROUND

The ability to rapidly and accurately triage, evacuate, and utilize appropriate interventions can be problematic in the early decision-making process of trauma care. With current methods of prehospital data collection and analysis, decisions are often based upon single data points. This information may be insufficient for reliable decision-making. To date, no studies have attempted to utilize data at multiple time points for purposes of enhancing prediction, nor have studies attempted to synthesize prediction models with data reflecting both large-vessel venous and arterial injuries. Therefore, we performed a retrospective study to examine the potential utility of dynamic neural networks in predicting mortality using highly discretized uncontrolled hemorrhagic shock data.

METHODS

One hundred forty-three swine with either grade V liver injuries or 2.8-mm aortotomies had hemodynamic data collected every minute throughout injury and resuscitation. The independent variables used as inputs to the polynomial neural networks (PNNs) included systolic blood pressure and mean arterial pressure (MAP). These inputs were used to predict mortality in individual swine 1 hour after injury using data up to 20 minutes after injury. Survival models were compared based on discrimination power (DP), i.e., where specificity equals sensitivity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (c-statistic). The Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) statistic was used to measure model calibration.

RESULTS

The best PNN model predicted mortality at 60 minutes utilizing data from injury to 20 minutes after injury. This model produced a ROC area of 0.919, a DP of 0.857, and a H-L value of 16.47. A DP of 0.857 means that 85.7% of the survivors are correctly predicted to survive, and 85.7% of the nonsurvivors are predicted to die. MAP of survivors and nonsurvivors were graphed for comparative purposes. As this graph illustrates, the use of MAP alone cannot discriminate survivors from nonsurvivors.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates that PNN models can effectively harness the dynamic nature of uncontrolled hemorrhagic shock data, despite utilizing data from large-vessel arterial and venous injuries. Utilizing the dynamic nature of hemorrhagic shock data in PNNs may ultimately allow the development of novel decision assist devices.

Scoring systems in trauma

BACKGROUND

Trauma is a major cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. Methods of assessing outcome have evolved with management of trauma victims.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The wide variety of scoring instruments available to assess the injured patient may be divided into three groups: anatomical, physiological and combined systems. Anatomical systems depend on an accurate description of the injuries sustained. Physiological systems measure the effects of injury on the patient's physiological reserves. Combined systems contain elements of both anatomical and physiological scores. Prospectively, scoring systems help in description, triage, treatment decisions and estimating outcome. Retrospective scoring is helpful in audit, in quality control, in comparing treatment methods or centres, and in identifying unexpected outcomes. Limitations may be inherent in the system or may reflect inaccurate or incomplete data collection.

Validation of outcome prediction in elderly patients

We recently described an equation for predicting the 1-year survival of critically ill patients aged over 70 years. The aim of this study was to check the performance of this equation in a validation group of 555 patients. The required demographic details (age, diagnosis, acute physiology score) of all elderly patients admitted between 1/4/95 and 31/9/96 were recorded and patients were followed for 1 year. One hundred and six patients died on the intensive care unit (19% mortality) and a further 134 died within 1 year (43% total 1-year mortality). The performance of the predictive equation was modest; the goodness-of-fit p-value was 0.04 and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.75. For both groups, the combined 1-year survival of all critically ill elderly patients was 55% but the outcome of patients aged over 85 years remains poor (37%).

Short-term and long-term outcome prediction with the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II system after orthotopic liver transplantation

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the relationship between the postoperative Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score and mortality at hospital discharge and at 1 yr in liver transplant recipients.

POPULATION

Adult orthotopic liver transplant (OLTX) recipients (n = 599) admitted to the intensive care unit postoperatively at a university hospital.

METHODS

The cohort was split randomly into development and validation sets. Three models were compared for each end point: a) the original APACHE II slope with the original APACHE II postgastrointestinal surgery intercept; b) the original APACHE II slope with an OLTX-specific intercept generated from the development set; and c) an OLTX-specific slope and intercept generated from the development set. Goodness-of-fit and calibration were assessed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow C statistic (where p>.05 suggests good fit) and standardized mortality ratios. Discrimination was assessed by receiver operator characteristic area under the curve analysis.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Hospital and 1-yr mortality rates were 9.9% and 15.9%, respectively. The APACHE II score was strongly associated with mortality (chi-square, p<.0001), but when used with the original equation, it significantly overestimated hospital mortality (standardized mortality ratio, 0.73 [confidence interval, 0.58-0.99]). Using the OLTX-specific approaches, goodness-of-fit for both hospital and 1-yr mortality was good (p = .2-.57) but discrimination was only moderate (receiver operator characteristic area under the curve, 0.675-0.723).

CONCLUSIONS

APACHE II is a good predictor of short- and long-term mortality after liver transplantation, especially when using OLTX-specific coefficients. Because fit and calibration were better than discrimination, APACHE II will be most useful in the prediction of risk for groups of patients (e.g., in clinical trials or institutional comparisons) rather than for individuals. This study raises the possibility that APACHE II may be useful for long-term mortality prediction in other critically ill populations. The overestimation of mortality using the original equation suggests that orthotopic liver transplantation, by reversing the underlying pathophysiology, may modify risk.

Glomerular permeability and trauma: a correlation between microalbuminuria and Injury Severity Score

OBJECTIVE

To determine if there is a correlation between an increase in glomerular permeability, the magnitude of trauma, and the severity of illness.

DESIGN

Prospective study.

SETTING

Two university hospital intensive care units.

PATIENTS

Forty consecutive critically ill trauma patients admitted directly to the intensive care unit within 120 mins of their injuries.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

For each patient, urine was collected from the time of admission until 7 am the next day. Within 48 hrs, only one sample of all urine collected (5 mL) was examined for microalbuminuria and urinary creatinine. Results were expressed as the microalbuminuria/urinary creatinine ratio (MACR). The mortality rate in the intensive care unit, Injury Severity Score at the moment of admission, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III score, and Simplified Acute Physiology Score in the first 24 hrs were calculated for each patient. The data were analyzed using the Pearson test for linear regression and Student's t-test. During the first 24 hrs after trauma, there was an increase of MACR (6.9 +/- 0.6 mg/mmol) above normal (reference range, <3 mg/mmol) that was positively correlated with Injury Severity Score (31.4 +/- 1.9; r2 = .73, p < .05). However, there was no correlation between MACR, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III score, Simplified Acute Physiology Score, and mortality rate.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with trauma show an increase in glomerular permeability during the first 24 hrs after injury. The magnitude of this increase is correlated with the extent of trauma but does not seem significant enough to be predictive of severity of illness and/or outcome.

Admission level of Gc-globulin predicts outcome after multiple trauma

BACKGROUND

Actin is the dominating protein in mammalian cells. Release of excessive amounts of actin into the circulation may result in a condition resembling multiple organ failure. The purpose of this study was to determine if admission levels of Gc-globulin can predict survival after multiple trauma. Also, we wanted to compare the predictive ability of Gc-globulin with that of the TRISS-Like scoring system.

METHODS

Fifty-seven patients with a median ISS 18 (16-75) were included. All patients had a blood sample taken median 42 min after the injury (19-110 min). Serum Gc-globulin was measured by rocket immunoelectrophoresis.

RESULTS

On admission, all patients had significantly reduced levels of Gc-globulin compared with normal controls. Gc-globulin was significantly higher in the group of survivors (n = 41), compared with non-survivors (n = 16). Median 237 mg/l vs. 188 mg/l (P < 0.01). The predictive ability of Gc-globulin regarding death was similar to that of TRISS-Like with positive predictive values of 69%, a negative predictive value of 84%, a sensitivity of 56% and a specificity of 90%.

CONCLUSIONS

The predictive value of Gc-globulin regarding survival was similar to that of an established scoring system. Gc-globulin, alone or in combination with other parameters, may serve as a routine tool for early identification of patients at risk after severe injury, increasing the possibility of early intervention.

Risk scoring in surgical patients

BACKGROUND

A large number of scoring systems for assessing a patient's risk of complications or death has been developed over recent years. This is a review of those that are of relevance to general surgeons.

METHODS

A Medline literature search was performed to identify all articles concerning 'severity of illness', 'morbidity', 'mortality' and 'postoperative complications' in the field of surgery from 1966 to 1997. Further searches were performed to find papers about specific identified scoring systems, and relevant articles from the reference lists of these were also sought.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSION

The advantages of an accurate assessment of a patient's risk include, on an individual level, the opportunity to give a more accurate prognosis and choose the most appropriate treatment. If the risk of an adverse outcome is known for a group of patients, the actual outcome can be compared with the predicted outcome, and comparison can be made between groups in different surgical units for the purposes of audit or research. The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) is the most appropriate of the currently available scores for general surgical practice.

APACHE II, data accuracy and outcome prediction

From review of 122 intensive care charts, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II points were determined for eight physiological values. Using a strict interpretation of APACHE II criteria, an average of 20.6% of these points were higher and 6.7% lower than the points entered originally into an intensive care database. The resulting 1.73 points mean increase in APACHE II score increased predicted mortality from 24.8% to 27.8% and decreased the mortality ratio (observed hospital deaths devided by predicted deaths) from 1.52 (95% confidence interval: 1.11-2.03) to 1.35 (95% confidence interval: 0.99-1.81). There were few errors entering the data recorded on the audit form into the intensive care unit database with an optical mark reader and keyboard. Inaccuracy and inconsistency in data collection must be excluded before differences in mortality ratios are ascribed to intensive care unit performance.

Validation of an outcome prediction model for critically ill trauma patients without head injury

BACKGROUND

The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II system is inaccurate in predicting the risk of death in trauma patients, especially those without head injury. Using multivariate analysis of the APACHE II system in a development set, a new predictive equation was modeled. The four variables that were independently associated with mortality were PaO2/FiO2 ratio, mean arterial pressure, temperature, and the need for inotropic support. This model was tested prospectively in an independent validation set of 300 patients.

METHODS

Risk of death was calculated using the APACHE II system with the diagnostic category of multiple trauma and weighting for operative intervention as required. The new model was similarly assessed using the four predictor variables and their beta-coefficients for each mechanism of injury and the entire group. The predicted risk of death derived by both models was compared with the observed mortality rate. Discrimination was calculated using a 2 x 2 decision matrix with a decision threshold of r = 0.5 and receiver operating characteristic curves. Calibration was assessed graphically and by statistical correlation.

RESULTS

The observed mortality rate was 28.3% and the predicted mortality risk was 27.4% for the model and 6.26% for APACHE II. The sensitivity and specificity of the model were 58.8 and 90.7%, and the sensitivity and specificity of APACHE II were 1.2 and 100%. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.84 and 0.78 for the model and the APACHE II system, respectively. Calibration of the model was superior within all deciles of risk (model, R2 = 0.93, p < 0.001; APACHE II, R2 = 0.82, p = 0.02).

CONCLUSION

The model accurately predicted the risk of death for the entire group. It is superior to the APACHE II system and is the highest reported sensitivity for 24-hour intensive care unit predictive models that have been applied to the critically injured.

American College of Chest Physicians/Society of Critical Care Medicine Consensus Conference definitions of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome and allied disorders in relation to critically injured patients

OBJECTIVES

To determine the frequency of the proposed definitions for the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), sepsis and septic shock, and to further define severe SIRS and sterile shock as determined at 24 hrs of admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) in critically ill trauma patients without head injury, and their relationships to mechanism of injury, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score, risk of death, Injury Severity Score (ISS), number of organ failures, and mortality rate.

DESIGN

Prospective, inception cohort analysis.

SETTING

Sixteen-bed surgical ICU in a teaching hospital.

PATIENTS

Four hundred fifty critically injured patients without associated head trauma. Penetrating trauma accounted for 70% (gunshot 202; stab 113) and nonpenetrating trauma for 30% (motor vehicle collision 103; blunt 32) of admissions. Three hundred ninety-four (88%) patients underwent surgical procedures.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Infective and noninfective insults were distinguished by the need for therapeutic or prophylactic antibiotics, respectively, based on an established antibiotic policy. Three hundred ninety-five (87.8%) patients fulfilled a definition of the SIRS criteria. The frequency of the definitive categories was SIRS 21.8%, sepsis 14.4%, severe SIRS 8.4%, severe sepsis 13.6%, sterile shock 9.3%, and septic shock 20.2%. Patients with penetrating trauma had a significantly higher frequency of sepsis, severe sepsis, and septic shock (p < .01). The APACHE II score, risk of death, and number of organ failures increased significantly in both infective and noninfective groups with increasing severity of the inflammatory response. Sterile shock was associated with a significantly higher APACHE II score (p < .02), risk of death (p < .01), and number of organ failures (p = .03) compared with septic shock. Only sterile shock was associated with a significantly higher ISS (p < .01). Organ system failure was significantly (p < .001) higher in nonsurvivors compared with survivors in all categories. The only significant (p < .001) difference in mortality rate was found between patients in shock and all other categories.

CONCLUSIONS

The current definitions of SIRS, sepsis, and related disorders in critically injured patients without head trauma show a significant association with physiologic deterioration and increasing organ dysfunction. The only significant association with mortality, however, is the presence of shock. The definitions require refinement, with the possible inclusion of more objective gradations of organ system failure, if they are to be used for stratifying severity of illness in seriously injured patients.