Zidovudine and stavudine sequencing in HIV treatment planning: findings from the CHORUS HIV cohort

Use of observational data in evaluating treatments: antiretroviral therapy and HIV

Observational data are increasingly used in various therapeutic areas to evaluate the use, effectiveness and side effects of new treatments. Whilst randomized clinical trials remain the gold standard for evaluating the efficacy of new agents, they have a number of limitations for HIV, including the limited number of combinations that are compared and the costs of long-term follow-up. Observational data from seroconverter and clinical cohorts have been used to compare the short- and longer-term effectiveness of different therapy combinations and to evaluate the longer-term risks associated with antiretroviral therapy. Furthermore, they provide the opportunity to evaluate the relative success of more complex patterns of therapy, such as sequencing of different regimens over time. However, because of the nature of these data, a number of potential biases may arise which can influence interpretation.

Psychometric evaluation of the HIV symptom distress scale

The objective of this article is to psychometrically validate the HIV symptom distress scale (SDS), an instrument that can be used to measure overall HIV symptom distress or clinically relevant groups of HIV symptoms. A secondary data analysis was conducted using the Collaborations in HIV Outcomes Research US Cohort (CHORUS). Inclusion criteria required study participants (N=5521) to have a valid baseline measure of the AIDS Clinical Trial Group Symptom Distress Module, with an SF-12 or SF-36 completed on the same day. Psychometric testing assessed unidimensionality, internal consistency, and factor structure using exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis, and structural equation modeling (SEM). Construct validity examined whether the new measure discriminates across clinical significance (CD4 and HIV viral load). Findings show that the SDS has high reliability (α=0.92), and SEM supports a correlated second-order factor model (physical and mental distress) with acceptable fit (GFI=0.88, AGFI=0.85, NFI=0.99, NNFI=0.99; RMSEA=0.06, [90% CI 0.06 - 0.06]; Satorra Bentler scaled, C (2) =3274.20; p=0.0). Construct validity shows significant differences across categories for HIV-1 viral load (p<0.001) and CD4 (p<0.001). Differences in mean SDS scores exist across gender (p<0.001), race/ethnicity (p<0.05), and educational attainment (p<0.001). Hence, the HIV SDS is a reliable and valid instrument, which measures overall HIV symptoms or clinically relevant groups of symptoms.

HIV+ caregivers and HIV+ non-caregivers: differences in sociodemographics, immune functioning, and quality-of-life

OBJECTIVE

To examine a cohort of HIV+ study participants, who are caregivers (CGs) and non-caregivers (NCGs), to determine whether differences exist across their sociodemographic backgrounds, immune functioning, and quality-of-life (i.e., symptom distress, physical, and mental quality-of-life).

METHODS

A secondary analysis of the cross-sectional subset of the population-based Collaborations HIV Outcomes Research US Cohort (CHORUS). Sample consists of 5521 HIV+ adults; median age 43 years (SD 8.7); 88.6% male; 70.7% non-Hispanic White, 17.6% African-American, and 7.8% Hispanic. Measures include the HIV Symptom Distress Scale and the SF-12. Analytical models included t-tests and multivariate linear regression.

RESULTS

HIV+ CGs have lower educational attainment than HIV+ NCGs (p=0.02). Seropositive CGs also experience greater HIV symptom distress (adjusted p<0.006) and poorer physical quality-of-life (adjusted p<0.001) than their seropostive NCG counterparts.

CONCLUSION

HIV+ CGs may require different supportive services than HIV+ NCGs, suggesting a need to develop tailored interventions to address modifiable factors, such as lower education and poor physical health. Both of these factors have been associated with suboptimal antiretroviral adherence, suggesting a role for the routine screening of adherence predictors amongst HIV+ CGs. These findings may have more relevance in resource-poor settings where the prevalence of HIV is higher, with a likely growing population of informal and family CGs infected with HIV.

Prevalence, severity, and duration of thrombocytopenia among HIV patients in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy

Thrombocytopenia is a clinically relevant outcome in HIV. However, the epidemiology of this condition, including frequency, severity, and duration, has not been well-characterized in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). In this study, we describe the epidemiology of thrombocytopenia using two methods. We conducted a systematic review of the literature published between 1997 and 2009 to characterize the frequency of thrombocytopenia in different populations in the HAART era. Secondly, we examined the frequency, severity, and duration of thrombocytopenia among HIV patients in the Collaborations in HIV Outcomes Research/US (CHORUS) Cohort from 1997 to 2006 and among HIV patients participating in GlaxoSmithKline HIV Clinical Trials between 1996 and 2004. Prevalence estimates of thrombocytopenia (<150 000 platelets/µl) in the literature varied greatly but were generally above 10%. The thrombocytopenia prevalence estimates in the CHORUS Cohort and the HIV Clinical Trials were both 14%. In the CHORUS Cohort, the platelet count was ≤50 000/µl among 3.1% and ≤30 000/µl among 1.7%; in the HIV clinical trials database, the platelet count was ≤50 000/µl among 1.3% and ≤30 000/µl among 0.67%. Duration of severe thrombocytopenia varied greatly, with the medium duration to ≥75 000 platelets/µl taking 147 days in the CHORUS Cohort and 33 days in the HIV clinical trials database. Among 111 patients with severe thrombocytopenia in the CHORUS Cohort, 23% never achieved a higher platelet count over follow-up. In conclusion, while the prevalence of severe thrombocytopenia was low, it occurred at levels associated with bleeding and was persistent among a small proportion of patients despite receipt of HAART.

Mortality of HIV-infected patients starting potent antiretroviral therapy: comparison with the general population in nine industrialized countries

BACKGROUND

Mortality in HIV-infected patients has declined substantially with combination antiretroviral therapy (ART), but it is unclear whether it has reached that of the general population. We compared mortality in patients starting ART in nine countries of Europe and North America with the corresponding general population, taking into account their response to ART.

METHODS

Eligible patients were enrolled in prospective cohort studies participating in the ART Cohort Collaboration. We calculated the ratio of observed to expected deaths from all causes [standardized mortality ratio (SMR)], measuring time from 6 months after starting ART, according to risk group, clinical stage at the start of ART and CD4 cell count and viral load at 6 months. Expected numbers of deaths were obtained from age-, sex- and country-specific mortality rates.

RESULTS

Among 29 935 eligible patients, 1134 deaths were recorded in 131 510 person-years of follow-up. The median age was 37 years, 8162 (27%) patients were females, 4400 (15%) were injecting drug users (IDUs) and 6738 (23%) had AIDS when starting ART. At 6 months, 23 539 patients (79%) had viral load measurements <or=500 copies/ml. The lowest SMR, 1.05 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.82-1.35] was found for men who have sex with men (MSM) who started ART free of AIDS, reached a CD4 cell count of >or=350 cells/microL and suppressed viral replication to <or=500 copies/ml by the sixth month. In contrast, the SMR was 73.7 (95% CI 46.4-116.9) in IDUs who failed to suppress viral replication and had CD4 cell counts <50 cells/microL at 6 months. The percentage of patients with SMRs <2 was 46% for MSM, 42% for heterosexually infected patients and 0% for patients with a history of injection drug use. Corresponding percentages for SMRs >10 were 4, 14 and 47%.

CONCLUSIONS

In industrialized countries, the mortality experience of HIV-infected patients who start ART and survive the first 6 months continues to be higher than in the general population, but for many patients excess mortality is moderate and comparable with patients having other chronic conditions. Much of the excess mortality might be prevented by earlier diagnosis of HIV followed by timely initiation of ART.

Cross-cohort heterogeneity encountered while validating a model for HIV disease progression among antiretroviral initiators

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate a model for predicting time to AIDS or death among HIV-infected persons initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART).

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

The model was constructed from 1,891 HAART initiators in the Collaborations in HIV Outcomes Research/US (CHORUS) cohort. The model's predictive ability was assessed using internal bootstrap validation techniques and data from 716 HAART initiators at Johns Hopkins HIV Clinical Cohort (JHHCC) in whom HIV disease was, in general, more advanced.

RESULTS

The estimated concordance statistic was 0.632 with the bootstrap method and 0.625 in JHHCC. Mean predicted and observed 3-year AIDS-free survival for JHHCC was 0.76 and 0.73 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.69-0.77), respectively; mean predicted and observed 5-year AIDS-free survival was 0.69 and 0.57 (95% CI, 0.52-0.62), respectively. Sensitivity analyses showed that the discrepancy between predicted and observed AIDS-free survival after 3 years could be due to differences in lost-to-follow-up rates between cohorts.

CONCLUSION

The model was fair at using baseline characteristics to order patients' risk of disease progression, but did not accurately predict AIDS-free survival >3 years after HAART initiation. Different variable definitions, patient characteristics, and loss to follow-up highlight the challenges of using data from one cohort to predict AIDS-free survival in an independent cohort.

Timing of initiation of antiretroviral therapy in AIDS-free HIV-1-infected patients: a collaborative analysis of 18 HIV cohort studies

BACKGROUND

The CD4 cell count at which combination antiretroviral therapy should be started is a central, unresolved issue in the care of HIV-1-infected patients. In the absence of randomised trials, we examined this question in prospective cohort studies.

METHODS

We analysed data from 18 cohort studies of patients with HIV. Antiretroviral-naive patients from 15 of these studies were eligible for inclusion if they had started combination antiretroviral therapy (while AIDS-free, with a CD4 cell count less than 550 cells per microL, and with no history of injecting drug use) on or after Jan 1, 1998. We used data from patients followed up in seven of the cohorts in the era before the introduction of combination therapy (1989-95) to estimate distributions of lead times (from the first CD4 cell count measurement in an upper range to the upper threshold of a lower range) and unseen AIDS and death events (occurring before the upper threshold of a lower CD4 cell count range is reached) in the absence of treatment. These estimations were used to impute completed datasets in which lead times and unseen AIDS and death events were added to data for treated patients in deferred therapy groups. We compared the effect of deferred initiation of combination therapy with immediate initiation on rates of AIDS and death, and on death alone, in adjacent CD4 cell count ranges of width 100 cells per microL.

FINDINGS

Data were obtained for 21 247 patients who were followed up during the era before the introduction of combination therapy and 24 444 patients who were followed up from the start of treatment. Deferring combination therapy until a CD4 cell count of 251-350 cells per microL was associated with higher rates of AIDS and death than starting therapy in the range 351-450 cells per microL (hazard ratio [HR] 1.28, 95% CI 1.04-1.57). The adverse effect of deferring treatment increased with decreasing CD4 cell count threshold. Deferred initiation of combination therapy was also associated with higher mortality rates, although effects on mortality were less marked than effects on AIDS and death (HR 1.13, 0.80-1.60, for deferred initiation of treatment at CD4 cell count 251-350 cells per microL compared with initiation at 351-450 cells per microL).

INTERPRETATION

Our results suggest that 350 cells per microL should be the minimum threshold for initiation of antiretroviral therapy, and should help to guide physicians and patients in deciding when to start treatment.

Does short-term virologic failure translate to clinical events in antiretroviral-naïve patients initiating antiretroviral therapy in clinical practice?

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether differences in short-term virologic failure among commonly used antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens translate to differences in clinical events in antiretroviral-naïve patients initiating ART.

DESIGN

Observational cohort study of patients initiating ART between January 2000 and December 2005.

SETTING

The Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration (ART-CC) is a collaboration of 15 HIV cohort studies from Canada, Europe, and the United States.

STUDY PARTICIPANTS

A total of 13 546 antiretroviral-naïve HIV-positive patients initiating ART with efavirenz, nevirapine, lopinavir/ritonavir, nelfinavir, or abacavir as third drugs in combination with a zidovudine and lamivudine nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor backbone.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Short-term (24-week) virologic failure (>500 copies/ml) and clinical events within 2 years of ART initiation (incident AIDS-defining event, death, and a composite measure of these two outcomes).

RESULTS

Compared with efavirenz as initial third drug, short-term virologic failure was more common with all other third drugs evaluated; nevirapine (adjusted odds ratio = 1.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.58-2.22), lopinavir/ritonavir (1.32, 95% CI = 1.12-1.57), nelfinavir (3.20, 95% CI = 2.74-3.74), and abacavir (2.13, 95% CI = 1.82-2.50). However, the rate of clinical events within 2 years of ART initiation appeared higher only with nevirapine (adjusted hazard ratio for composite outcome measure 1.27, 95% CI = 1.04-1.56) and abacavir (1.22, 95% CI = 1.00-1.48).

CONCLUSION

Among antiretroviral-naïve patients initiating therapy, between-ART regimen, differences in short-term virologic failure do not necessarily translate to differences in clinical outcomes. Our results should be interpreted with caution because of the possibility of residual confounding by indication.

Prognostic Importance of Anaemia in HIV Type-1-Infected Patients Starting Antiretroviral Therapy: Collaborative Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies

Background

In HIV type-1-infected patients starting highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), the prognostic value of haemoglobin when starting HAART, and of changes in haemoglobin levels, are not well defined.

Methods

We combined data from 10 prospective studies of 12,100 previously untreated individuals (25% women). A total of 4,222 patients (35%) were anaemic: 131 patients (1.1%) had severe (<8.0 g/dl), 1,120 (9%) had moderate (male 8.0–<11.0 g/dl and female 8.0–<10.0 g/ dl) and 2,971 (25%) had mild (male 11.0–<13.0 g/dl and female 10.0–<12.0 g/dl) anaemia. We separately analysed progression to AIDS or death from baseline and from 6 months using Weibull models, adjusting for CD4+ T-cell count, age, sex and other variables.

Results

During 48,420 person-years of follow-up 1,448 patients developed at least one AIDS event and 857 patients died. Anaemia at baseline was independently associated with higher mortality: the adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) for mild anaemia was 1.42 (1.17–1.73), for moderate anaemia 2.56 (2.07–3.18) and for severe anaemia 5.26 (3.55–7.81). Corresponding figures for progression to AIDS were 1.60 (1.37–1.86), 2.00 (1.66–2.40) and 2.24 (1.46–3.42). At 6 months the prevalence of anaemia declined to 26%. Baseline anaemia continued to predict mortality (and to a lesser extent progression to AIDS) in patients with normal haemoglobin or mild anaemia at 6 months.

Conclusions

Anaemia at the start of HAART is an important factor for short- and long-term prognosis, including in patients whose haemoglobin levels improved or normalized during the first 6 months of HAART.

Prognosis of HIV-1-infected patients up to 5 years after initiation of HAART: collaborative analysis of prospective studies

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the prognosis over 5 years of HIV-1-infected, treatment-naive patients starting HAART, taking into account the immunological and virological response to therapy.

DESIGN

A collaborative analysis of data from 12 cohorts in Europe and North America on 20,379 adults who started HAART between 1995 and 2003.

METHODS

Parametric survival models were used to predict the cumulative incidence at 5 years of a new AIDS-defining event or death, and death alone, first from the start of HAART and second from 6 months after the start of HAART. Data were analysed by intention-to-continue-treatment, ignoring treatment changes and interruptions.

RESULTS

During 61 798 person-years of follow-up, 1005 patients died and an additional 1303 developed AIDS. A total of 10 046 (49%) patients started HAART either with a CD4 cell count of less than 200 cells/microl or with a diagnosis of AIDS. The 5-year risk of AIDS or death (death alone) from the start of HAART ranged from 5.6 to 77% (1.8-65%), depending on age, CD4 cell count, HIV-1-RNA level, clinical stage, and history of injection drug use. From 6 months the corresponding figures were 4.1-99% for AIDS or death and 1.3-96% for death alone.

CONCLUSION

On the basis of data collected routinely in HIV care, prognostic models with high discriminatory power over 5 years were developed for patients starting HAART in industrialized countries. A risk calculator that produces estimates for progression rates at years 1 to 5 after starting HAART is available from www.art-cohort-collaboration.org.

HIV treatment response and prognosis in Europe and North America in the first decade of highly active antiretroviral therapy: a collaborative analysis

BACKGROUND

Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) for the treatment of HIV infection was introduced a decade ago. We aimed to examine trends in the characteristics of patients starting HAART in Europe and North America, and their treatment response and short-term prognosis.

METHODS

We analysed data from 22,217 treatment-naive HIV-1-infected adults who had started HAART and were followed up in one of 12 cohort studies. The probability of reaching 500 or less HIV-1 RNA copies per mL by 6 months, and the change in CD4 cell counts, were analysed for patients starting HAART in 1995-96, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2002-03. The primary endpoints were the hazard ratios for AIDS and for death from all causes in the first year of HAART, which were estimated using Cox regression.

RESULTS

The proportion of heterosexually infected patients increased from 20% in 1995-96 to 47% in 2002-03, and the proportion of women from 16% to 32%. The median CD4 cell count when starting HAART increased from 170 cells per muL in 1995-96 to 269 cells per muL in 1998 but then decreased to around 200 cells per muL. In 1995-96, 58% achieved HIV-1 RNA of 500 copies per mL or less by 6 months compared with 83% in 2002-03. Compared with 1998, adjusted hazard ratios for AIDS were 1.07 (95% CI 0.84-1.36) in 1995-96 and 1.35 (1.06-1.71) in 2002-03. Corresponding figures for death were 0.87 (0.56-1.36) and 0.96 (0.61-1.51).

INTERPRETATION

Virological response after starting HAART improved over calendar years, but such improvement has not translated into a decrease in mortality.

Mortality of HIV-1-infected patients in the first year of antiretroviral therapy: comparison between low-income and high-income countries

BACKGROUND

Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) is being scaled up in developing countries. We compared baseline characteristics and outcomes during the first year of HAART between HIV-1-infected patients in low-income and high-income settings.

METHODS

18 HAART programmes in Africa, Asia, and South America (low-income settings) and 12 HIV cohort studies from Europe and North America (high-income settings) provided data for 4810 and 22,217, respectively, treatment-naïve adult patients starting HAART. All patients from high-income settings and 2725 (57%) patients from low-income settings were actively followed-up and included in survival analyses.

FINDINGS

Compared with high-income countries, patients starting HAART in low-income settings had lower CD4 cell counts (median 108 cells per muL vs 234 cells per muL), were more likely to be female (51%vs 25%), and more likely to start treatment with a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) (70%vs 23%). At 6 months, the median number of CD4 cells gained (106 cells per muL vs 103 cells per muL) and the percentage of patients reaching HIV-1 RNA levels lower than 500 copies/mL (76%vs 77%) were similar. Mortality was higher in low-income settings (124 deaths during 2236 person-years of follow-up) than in high-income settings (414 deaths during 20,532 person-years). The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of mortality comparing low-income with high-income settings fell from 4.3 (95% CI 1.6-11.8) during the first month to 1.5 (0.7-3.0) during months 7-12. The provision of treatment free of charge in low-income settings was associated with lower mortality (adjusted HR 0.23; 95% CI 0.08-0.61).

INTERPRETATION

Patients starting HAART in resource-poor settings have increased mortality rates in the first months on therapy, compared with those in developed countries. Timely diagnosis and assessment of treatment eligibility, coupled with free provision of HAART, might reduce this excess mortality.

Estimating the proportion of patients infected with HIV who will die of comorbid diseases

PURPOSE

Effective antiretroviral therapies have improved the prognosis for patients infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). We aimed to estimate the likelihood that HIV-infected patients would die of comorbid disease.

METHODS

A probabilistic simulation of antiretroviral-naïve HIV-infected patients in the United States was calibrated with data from an observational cohort (N = 3545) and validated with data from a separate patient cohort (N = 12574). The simulation explicitly represents the 2 main determinants of treatment failure and subsequent death from HIV-related causes: nonadherence to combination therapy and accumulation of phenotypic resistance to combination therapy. The likelihood of deaths not directly attributable to HIV was estimated from the Collaborations in HIV Outcomes Research-US (CHORUS) cohort.

RESULTS

For patients with newly diagnosed HIV infections, CD4 counts of 500 cells/mm3, and viral loads of 10000 copies/mL, the median estimated survival was 26.8 years for 30-year-olds, 24.4 years for 40-year-olds and 14.6 years for 50-year-olds. The proportion of deaths not directly attributable to HIV was 36% for 30-year-olds, 53% for 40-year-olds, and 72% for 50-year-olds. For patients with characteristics similar to CHORUS participants, the median estimated survival approached 20.4 years, the mean age at death approached 60.4 years, and 41% died of illnesses not directly attributable to HIV. These estimates of non-HIV mortality were likely conservative.

CONCLUSION

As HIV-infected patients live longer, our results suggest they will experience increasing mortality from causes not directly attributable to HIV. The projected risk from comorbid disease has clinical and policy implications for future delivery of care to HIV-infected patients.

Effect of Persistent Moderate Viremia on Disease Progression During HIV Therapy

OBJECTIVE

Although highly active antiretroviral therapy has been shown to lower plasma HIV-1 RNA in HIV infection, many patients do not reach the target goal of undetectable viremia. We evaluated whether risk of clinical progression varies by level of viral suppression achieved.

DESIGN

Patients in the Collaborations in HIV Outcomes Research/United States cohort who maintained stable HIV-1 RNA levels of either <400, 400 to 20,000, or >20,000 copies/mL during a run-in period of at least 6 months were studied. Baseline was the first day after this period.

METHODS

Proportional hazards models were used to quantify the relation between baseline HIV-1 RNA levels and risk of a new AIDS-defining diagnosis or death after adjusting for CD4 count, age, gender, ethnicity, study site, prior AIDS-defining diagnosis, and antiretroviral therapy history.

RESULTS

Patients (N = 3010) were followed for up to 4.3 years after the 6-month run-in period, with 343 deaths or AIDS-defining diagnoses reported. The risk of a new AIDS-defining diagnosis or death was not significantly different in the 400 to 20,000- and <400-copies/mL groups (6% vs. 7%, hazard ratio [HR] = 1.0, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.7-1.4; P = 0.9) but was significantly higher in the >20,000-copies/mL group (26%, HR = 3.3, 95% CI: 2.5-4.4; P < 0.001 vs. the <400-copies/mL group). Median CD4 count changes during the first year of follow-up showed increases of 75 and 13 cells/mm for the <400- and 400 to 20,000-copies/mL groups, respectively, whereas the >20,000-copies/mL group had a decrease of 23 cells/mm.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients who maintained baseline HIV-1 RNA levels of 400 to 20,000 copies/mL for at least 6 months preserved immunologic status and were no more likely to die or develop a new AIDS-defining diagnosis in the time frame studied than those with baseline levels <400 copies/mL. Patients with HIV-1 RNA levels >20,000 copies/mL at baseline had greater clinical and immunologic deterioration. These data suggest that maintenance of moderate viremia may confer clinical benefit not seen when viremia exceeds 20,000 copies/mL, and this should be taken into account when considering the risks and benefits of continuing failing therapy.

Predictors of trend in CD4-positive T-cell count and mortality among HIV-1-infected individuals with virological failure to all three antiretroviral-drug classes

BACKGROUND

Treatment strategies for patients in whom HIV replication is not suppressed after exposure to several drug classes remain unclear. We aimed to assess the inter-relations between viral load, CD4-cell count, and clinical outcome in patients who had experienced three-class virological failure.

METHODS

We undertook collaborative joint analysis of 13 HIV cohorts from Europe, North America, and Australia, involving patients who had had three-class virological failure (viral load >1000 copies per mL for >4 months). Regression analyses were used to quantify the associations between CD4-cell-count slope, HIV-1 RNA concentration, treatment information, and demographic characteristics. Predictors of death were analysed by Cox's proportional-hazards models.

FINDINGS

2488 patients were included. 2118 (85%) had started antiretroviral therapy with single or dual therapy. During 5015 person-years of follow-up, 276 patients died (mortality rate 5.5 per 100 person-years; 3-year mortality risk 15.3% (95% CI 13.5-17.3). Risk of death was strongly influenced by the latest CD4-cell count with a relative hazard of 15.8 (95% CI 9.28-27.0) for counts below 50 cells per microL versus above 200 cells per microL. The latest viral load did not independently predict death. For any given viral load, patients on treatment had more favourable CD4-cell-count slopes than those off treatment. For patients on treatment and with stable viral load, CD4-cell counts tended to be increasing at times when the current viral load was below 10000 copies per mL or 1.5 log10 copies per mL below off-treatment values.

INTERPRETATION

In patients for whom viral-load suppression to below the level of detection is not possible, achievement and maintenance of a CD4-cell count above 200 per microL becomes the primary aim. Treatment regimens that maintain the viral load below 10000 copies per mL or at least provide 1.5 log10 copies per mL suppression below the off-treatment value do not seem to be associated with appreciable CD4-cell-count decline.

Prognostic importance of initial response in HIV-1 infected patients starting potent antiretroviral therapy: analysis of prospective studies

BACKGROUND

We examined whether the initial virological and immunological response to highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) is prognostic in patients with HIV-1 who start HAART.

METHODS

We analysed 13 cohort studies from Europe and North America including 9323 adult treatment-naive patients who were starting HAART with a combination of at least three drugs. We modelled clinical progression from month 6 after starting HAART, taking into account CD4 count and HIV-1 RNA measured at baseline and 6 months.

FINDINGS

During 13408 years of follow-up 152 patients died and 874 developed AIDS or died. Compared with patients who had a 6-month CD4 count of fewer than 25 cells/microL, adjusted hazard ratios for AIDS or death were 0.55 (95%CI 0.32-0.96) for 25-49 cells/microL, 0.62 (0.40-0.96) for 50-99 cells/microL, 0.42 (0.28-0.64) for 100-199 cells/microL, 0.25 (0.16-0.38) for 200-349 cells/microL, and 0.18 (0.11-0.29) for 350 or more cells/microL at 6 months. Compared with patients who had a 6-month HIV-1 RNA of 100000 copies/mL or greater, adjusted hazard ratios for AIDS or death were 0.59 (0.41-0.86) for 10000-99999 copies/mL, 0.42 (0.29-0.61) for 500-9999 copies/mL, and 0.29 (0.21-0.39) for 6-month HIV-1 RNA of 500 copies/mL or fewer. Baseline CD4 and HIV-1 RNA were not associated with progression after controlling for 6-month concentrations. The probability of progression at 3 years ranged from 2.4% in the patients in the lowest-risk stratum to 83% in patients in the highest-risk stratum.

INTERPRETATION

At 6 months after starting HAART, the current CD4 cell count and viral load, but not values at baseline, are strongly associated with subsequent disease progression. Our findings should inform guidelines on when to modify HAART.

The role of observational data in monitoring trends in antiretroviral treatment and HIV disease stage: results from the Australian HIV observational database

OBJECTIVES

To illustrate how human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) observational databases may be used to monitor trends in HIV treatment and HIV disease outcomes through data reported from the Australian HIV Observational Database (AHOD).

METHODS

Time trends in the use of antiretroviral treatment, and changes in treatment strategies were calculated in patients recruited to AHOD from HIV specialist clinics including hospitals, sexual health clinics and general practices. These results were then compared to trends reported from other observational cohorts.

RESULTS

By September 2001, 1961 patients were recruited to AHOD. Since entering AHOD, 3% of patients have been diagnosed with an AIDS defining illness, and 2% of patients have died, of which, 54% were non-HIV related deaths. The proportion of patients receiving antiretroviral therapy increased from 66% between January and June 1998 and 77% between July and September 2001. The most commonly received treatment regimen was triple therapy including a protease inhibitor (PI), ranging between 36% in January and June 1998 and 31% in July to September 2001. Triple therapy including a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) more than doubled to 32% between July and September 2001. The proportion of patients receiving either stavudine (d4T) or zidovudine (AZT) treatment regimens decreased from 92% between January and June 1998 to 76% between July and September 2001. Patients receiving ritonavir in combination with another PI increased, as did the proportion of patients interrupting therapy for more than 3 months.

CONCLUSION

These findings suggest there have been changes in the way antiretroviral treatments have been used in Australia, and are consistent with the current literature. Furthermore, these findings demonstrate the usefulness of observational cohorts as a surveillance tool monitoring trends in treatment and disease progression.

Prognosis of HIV-1-infected patients starting highly active antiretroviral therapy: a collaborative analysis of prospective studies

BACKGROUND

Insufficient data are available from single cohort studies to allow estimation of the prognosis of HIV-1 infected, treatment-naive patients who start highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). The ART Cohort Collaboration, which includes 13 cohort studies from Europe and North America, was established to fill this knowledge gap.

METHODS

We analysed data on 12,574 adult patients starting HAART with a combination of at least three drugs. Data were analysed by intention-to-continue-treatment, ignoring treatment changes and interruptions. We considered progression to a combined endpoint of a new AIDS-defining disease or death, and to death alone. The prognostic model that generalised best was a Weibull model, stratified by baseline CD4 cell count and transmission group. FINDINGS During 24,310 person-years of follow up, 1094 patients developed AIDS or died and 344 patients died. Baseline CD4 cell count was strongly associated with the probability of progression to AIDS or death: compared with patients starting HAART with less than 50 CD4 cells/microL, adjusted hazard ratios were 0.74 (95% CI 0.62-0.89) for 50-99 cells/microL, 0.52 (0.44-0.63) for 100-199 cells/microL, 0.24 (0.20-0.30) for 200-349 cells/microL, and 0.18 (0.14-0.22) for 350 or more CD4 cells/microL. Baseline HIV-1 viral load was associated with a higher probability of progression only if 100,000 copies/microL or above. Other independent predictors of poorer outcome were advanced age, infection through injection-drug use, and a previous diagnosis of AIDS. The probability of progression to AIDS or death at 3 years ranged from 3.4% (2.8-4.1) in patients in the lowest-risk stratum for each prognostic variable, to 50% (43-58) in patients in the highest-risk strata.

INTERPRETATION

The CD4 cell count at initiation was the dominant prognostic factor in patients starting HAART. Our findings have important implications for clinical management and should be taken into account in future treatment guidelines.

Stavudine-associated peripheral neuropathy in zidovudine-naïve patients: effect of stavudine exposure and antiretroviral experience

A post hoc analysis of safety data from study protocol NZT40012 assessed the incidence of conditions defined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in 86 zidovudine-naïve, antiretroviral-experienced patients with HIV-1 infection who responded poorly (plasma HIV-1 RNA > 1000 copies/mL) despite at least 4 months' treatment with stavudine-containing regimens. Peripheral neuropathy occurred in 21%; other conditions were seen less frequently (candidiasis [13%], herpes zoster [12%], diarrhea lasting > 1 month [9%], Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia [9%], and wasting syndrome [8%]). The incidence of peripheral neuropathy rose significantly with the number of drugs comprising treatment regimens (> or = 4 vs 1-3; P = .013) and tended to be higher in patients with longer exposure to stavudine (29% with > or = 24 months' exposure vs 13% with < 24 months). Because peripheral neuropathy was observed with such high frequency, vigilance for signs and symptoms of this condition appears warranted if stavudine-containing regimens are to be continued.