Presenting Symptoms Independently Predict Mortality in Septic Shock: Importance of a Previously Unmeasured Confounder*

Definition and Epidemiology of Sepsis

Here we review the epidemiology of sepsis, focusing on its definition, incidence, and mortality, as well as the demographic insights and risk factors that influence its occurrence and outcomes. We address how age, sex, and racial/ethnic disparities impact upon incidence and mortality rates. Sepsis is more frequent and severe among the elderly, males, and certain racial and ethnic groups. Poor socioeconomic status, geographic location, and pre-existing comorbidities also elevate the risk of developing and dying from sepsis. Seasonal variations, with an increased incidence during winter months, is also apparent. We delve into the predictive value of disease severity scores such as the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score. We also highlight issues relating to coding and administrative data that can generate erroneous and misleading information, and the need for greater consistency. The Sepsis-3 definitions, offering more precise clinical criteria, are a step in the right direction. This overview will, we hope, facilitate understanding of the multi-faceted epidemiological characteristics of sepsis and current challenges.

Infection on Frail Patients in the Intensive Care Unit: Insights From the PalMuSIC Study

BACKGROUND

Along with population aging, frailty is also increasingly common in the intensive care unit (ICU). However, the impact of frailty on the infection incidence, the risk of multidrug-resistant (MDR) microorganisms, and the potential benefits of broad-spectrum antibiotics are still poorly studied.

METHODS

This is a multicentric, prospective, observational study collecting data for 15 consecutive days of all consecutive adult patients admitted in each participating ICU. Exclusion criteria included admission for less than 24 hours or failure to obtain informed consent. The Clinical Frailty Score (CFS) was calculated both by the doctor and by the nurse in charge, and the patient's next of kin. Patients were considered frail if the mean of the three measured scores was ≥5. This is a post hoc analysis of the PALliative MUlticenter Study in Intensive Care (PalMuSIC) study. The Hospital de Vila Franca de Xira Ethics Committee approved the study (approval number: 63).

RESULTS

A total of 335 patients from 23 Portuguese ICUs were included. Frailty was diagnosed in 20.9%. More than 60% of the patients had a diagnosis of infection during their ICU stay, either present on admission or hospital-acquired. This included 25 (35.7%) frail and 75 (28.3%) non-frail (p=0.23) patients diagnosed with infection. In 34 patients, MDR microorganisms were isolated, which were more common in frail patients (odds ratio (OR): 2.65, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.3-5.6, p=0.018). Carbapenems were started in 37 (18.1%) patients, but after adjusting for frailty and severity, no clear mortality benefit of this strategy was noted (odds ratio for ICU mortality: 1.61, 95% confidence interval: 0.49-5.31, p=0.43; odds ratio for hospital mortality: 1.61, 95% confidence interval: 0.61-4.21, p=0.33).

CONCLUSION

Frail patients had similar rates of infection to non-frail patients but were more prone to have MDR microorganisms as causative pathogens. The use of empirical therapy with large-spectrum antibiotics should be based on microbiological risk factors and not simply on the host characteristics.

Early versus delayed enteral nutrition in ICU patients with sepsis: a propensity score-matched analysis based on the MIMIC-IV database

Background

Early enteral nutrition (EN) is recommended for sepsis management, but its optimal timing and clinical benefits remain uncertain. This study evaluates whether early EN improves outcomes compared to delayed EN in patients with sepsis.

Methods

We analyzed data of septic patients from the MIMIC-IV 2.2 database, focusing on those in the Medical Intensive Care Unit (MICU) and Surgical Intensive Care Unit (SICU). Patients who initiated EN within 3 days were classified into the early EN group, while those who started EN between 3 and 7 days were classified into the delayed EN group. Propensity score matching was used to compare outcomes between the groups.

Results

Among 1,111 patients, 786 (70.7%) were in the early EN group and 325 (29.3%) were in the delayed EN group. Before propensity score matching, the early EN group demonstrated lower mortality (crude OR = 0.694; 95% CI: 0.514-0.936; p = 0.018) and shorter ICU stays (8.3 [5.2, 12.3] vs. 10.0 [7.5, 14.2] days; p < 0.001). After matching, no significant difference in mortality was observed. However, the early EN group had shorter ICU stays (8.3 [5.2, 12.4] vs. 10.1 [7.5, 14.2] days; p < 0.001) and a lower incidence of AKI stage 3 (49.3% vs. 55.5%; p = 0.030). Subgroup analysis revealed that early EN significantly reduced the 28-day mortality rate in sepsis patients with lactate levels ≤4 mmol/L, with an adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of 0.579 (95% CI: 0.361, 0.930; p = 0.024).

Conclusion

Early enteral nutrition may not significantly reduce overall mortality in sepsis patients but may shorten ICU stays and decrease the incidence of AKI stage 3. Further research is needed to identify specific patient characteristics that benefit most from early EN.

Ten misconceptions regarding decision-making in critical care

Diagnostic errors are prevalent in critical care practice and are associated with patient harm and costs for providers and the healthcare system. Patient complexity, illness severity, and the urgency in initiating proper treatment all contribute to decision-making errors. Clinician-related factors such as fatigue, cognitive overload, and inexperience further interfere with effective decision-making. Cognitive science has provided insight into the clinical decision-making process that can be used to reduce error. This evidence-based review discusses ten common misconceptions regarding critical care decision-making. By understanding how practitioners make clinical decisions and examining how errors occur, strategies may be developed and implemented to decrease errors in Decision-making and improve patient outcomes.

Association between early manifestations of infection or sepsis and prognosis in a high complexity hospital in the city of Medellín

OBJECTIVE

To identify the first symptoms and signs of patients with suspected infection or sepsis and their association with the composite outcome of admission to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) or mortality.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study between June 2019 and March 2020.

SETTING

Hospital Universitario San Vicente Fundación, Colombia.

PATIENTS

Over 18 years of age with suspicion or confirmation of sepsis, which required hospitalization.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MAIN VARIABLES OF INTEREST

Symptoms and signs associated with infection, with their time of evolution, specified in the study.

RESULTS

From 1005 eligible patients, 261 were included. After multivariable adjustment with a logistic regression model, the main factors for ICU admission or mortality were heart rate (OR 1.04 with 95% CI 1.04-3.7), respiratory rate (OR 1.19 with 95% CI 1.0-1.4) and capillary refill time (OR 3.4 with 95% CI 1.9-6.1).

CONCLUSIONS

Heart rate, respiratory rate, and capillary refill may behave as early predictors of ICU admission and mortality in cases of sepsis.

Provider-to-provider telehealth for sepsis patients in a cohort of rural emergency departments

BACKGROUND

Telehealth has been proposed as one strategy to improve the quality of time-sensitive sepsis care in rural emergency departments (EDs). The purpose of this study was to measure the association between telehealth-supplemented ED (tele-ED) care, health care costs, and clinical outcomes among patients with sepsis in rural EDs.

METHODS

Cohort study using Medicare fee-for-service claims data for beneficiaries treated for sepsis in rural EDs between February 1, 2017, and September 30, 2019. Our primary hospital-level analysis used multivariable generalized estimating equations to measure the association between treatment in a tele-ED-capable hospital and 30-day total costs of care. In our supporting secondary analysis, we conducted a propensity-matched analysis of patients who used tele-ED with matched controls from non-tele-ED-capable hospitals. Our primary outcome was total health care payments among index hospitalized patients between the index ED visit and 30 days after hospital discharge, and our secondary outcomes included hospital mortality, hospital length of stay, 90-day mortality, 28-day hospital-free days, and 30-day inpatient readmissions.

RESULTS

In our primary analysis, sepsis patients in tele-ED-capable hospitals had 6.7% higher (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.1%-11.5%) total health care costs compared to those in non-tele-ED-capable hospitals. In our propensity-matched patient-level analysis, total health care costs were 23% higher (95% CI 16.5%-30.4%) in tele-ED cases than matched non-tele-ED controls. Clinical outcomes were similar.

CONCLUSIONS

Tele-ED capability in a mature rural tele-ED network was not associated with decreased health care costs or improved clinical outcomes. Future work is needed to reduce rural-urban sepsis care disparities and formalize systems of regionalized care.

Timing of antibiotic treatment identifies distinct clinical presentations among patients presenting with suspected septic shock

Objective

Recent clinical guidelines for sepsis management emphasize immediate antibiotic initiation for suspected septic shock. Though hypotension is a high-risk marker of sepsis severity, prior studies have not considered the precise timing of hypotension in relation to antibiotic initiation and how clinical characteristics and outcomes may differ. Our objective was to evaluate antibiotic initiation in relation to hypotension to characterize differences in sepsis presentation and outcomes in patients with suspected septic shock.

Methods

Adults presenting to the emergency department (ED) June 2012-December 2018 diagnosed with sepsis (Sepsis-III electronic health record [EHR] criteria) and hypotension (non-resolving for ≥30 min, systolic blood pressure <90 mmHg) within 24 h. We categorized patients who received antibiotics before hypotension ("early"), 0-60 min after ("immediate"), and >60 min after ("late") treatment.

Results

Among 2219 patients, 55% received early treatment, 13% immediate, and 32% late. The late subgroup often presented to the ED with hypotension (median 0 min) but received antibiotics a median of 191 min post-ED presentation. Clinical characteristics notable for this subgroup included higher prevalence of heart failure and liver disease (p < 0.05) and later onset of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria compared to early/immediate treatment subgroups (median 87 vs. 35 vs. 20 min, p < 0.0001). After adjustment, there was no difference in clinical outcomes among treatment subgroups.

Conclusions

There was significant heterogeneity in presentation and timing of antibiotic initiation for suspected septic shock. Patients with later treatment commonly had hypotension on presentation, had more hypotension-associated comorbidities, and developed overt markers of infection (eg, SIRS) later. While these factors likely contribute to delays in clinician recognition of suspected septic shock, it may not impact sepsis outcomes.

Improving Sepsis Outcomes in the Era of Pay-for-Performance and Electronic Quality Measures: A Joint IDSA/ACEP/PIDS/SHEA/SHM/SIDP Position Paper

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) introduced the Severe Sepsis/Septic Shock Management Bundle (SEP-1) as a pay-for-reporting measure in 2015 and is now planning to make it a pay-for-performance measure by incorporating it into the Hospital Value-Based Purchasing Program. This joint IDSA/ACEP/PIDS/SHEA/SHM/SIPD position paper highlights concerns with this change. Multiple studies indicate that SEP-1 implementation was associated with increased broad-spectrum antibiotic use, lactate measurements, and aggressive fluid resuscitation for patients with suspected sepsis but not with decreased mortality rates. Increased focus on SEP-1 risks further diverting attention and resources from more effective measures and comprehensive sepsis care. We recommend retiring SEP-1 rather than using it in a payment model and shifting instead to new sepsis metrics that focus on patient outcomes. CMS is developing a community-onset sepsis 30-day mortality electronic clinical quality measure (eCQM) that is an important step in this direction. The eCQM preliminarily identifies sepsis using systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria, antibiotic administrations or diagnosis codes for infection or sepsis, and clinical indicators of acute organ dysfunction. We support the eCQM but recommend removing SIRS criteria and diagnosis codes to streamline implementation, decrease variability between hospitals, maintain vigilance for patients with sepsis but without SIRS, and avoid promoting antibiotic use in uninfected patients with SIRS. We further advocate for CMS to harmonize the eCQM with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) Adult Sepsis Event surveillance metric to promote unity in federal measures, decrease reporting burden for hospitals, and facilitate shared prevention initiatives. These steps will result in a more robust measure that will encourage hospitals to pay more attention to the full breadth of sepsis care, stimulate new innovations in diagnosis and treatment, and ultimately bring us closer to our shared goal of improving outcomes for patients.

Systematic Literature Review of the Association of Fever and Elevated Temperature with Outcomes in Critically Ill Adult Patients

Although most commonly associated with infection, elevated temperature and fever also occur in a variety of critically ill populations. Prior studies have suggested that fever and elevated temperature may be detrimental to critically ill patients and can lead to poor outcomes, but the evidence surrounding the association of fever with outcomes is rapidly evolving. To broadly assess potential associations of elevated temperature and fever with outcomes in critically ill adult patients, we performed a systematic literature review focusing on traumatic brain injury, stroke (ischemic and hemorrhagic), cardiac arrest, sepsis, and general intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Searches were conducted in Embase® and PubMed® from 2016 to 2021, following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, including dual-screening of abstracts, full texts, and extracted data. In total, 60 studies assessing traumatic brain injury and stroke (24), cardiac arrest (8), sepsis (22), and general ICU (6) patients were included. Mortality, functional, or neurological status and length of stay were the most frequently reported outcomes. Elevated temperature and fever were associated with poor clinical outcomes in patients with traumatic brain injury, stroke, and cardiac arrest but not in patients with sepsis. Although a causal relationship between elevated temperature and poor outcomes cannot be definitively established, the association observed in this systematic literature review supports the concept that management of elevated temperature may factor in avoidance of detrimental outcomes in multiple critically ill populations. The analysis also highlights gaps in our understanding of fever and elevated temperature in critically ill adult patients.

Previously healthy adults among septic patients: Population-level epidemiology and outcomes

PURPOSE

Previously healthy adults with community-onset sepsis were recently reported to have, counterintuitively, higher short-term mortality than those with comorbid conditions. However, the population-level generalizability of this finding and its applicability to all hospitalized septic patients are unclear.

METHODS

We used a statewide dataset to identify hospitalizations aged ≥18 years with a diagnosis of sepsis in Texas during 2018-2019. Comorbidities were defined as those included in the Charlson Comorbidity Index and other prevalent conditions associated with mortality. Hierarchical models were used to estimate the association of comorbid state with short-term mortality (defined as in-hospital mortality or discharge to hospice), overall and in community-onset and hospital-onset sepsis.

RESULTS

Among 120,371 sepsis hospitalizations, 6611 (5.5%) were previously healthy and 105,455 (87.6%) had community-onset sepsis. Short-term mortality among the previously healthy and those with comorbidities was 11.7% vs 28.2% overall, 11.0% vs 25.2% in community-onset sepsis, and 22.0% vs 48.7% in hospital-onset sepsis, respectively. On adjusted analysis, being previously healthy remained associated with lower short-term mortality overall (adjusted odds ratio 0.62 [95% CI 0.57-0.69]), with findings consistent with the primary analysis in community-onset sepsis, hospital-onset sepsis.

CONCLUSIONS

Previously healthy septic patients had lower short-term mortality compared to those with comorbid conditions.

Effect of Automated Real-Time Feedback on Early-Sepsis Care: A Pragmatic Clinical Trial

OBJECTIVES

To determine if a real-time monitoring system with automated clinician alerts improves 3-hour sepsis bundle adherence.

DESIGN

Prospective, pragmatic clinical trial. Allocation alternated every 7 days.

SETTING

Quaternary hospital from December 1, 2020 to November 30, 2021.

PATIENTS

Adult emergency department or inpatients meeting objective sepsis criteria triggered an electronic medical record (EMR)-embedded best practice advisory. Enrollment occurred when clinicians acknowledged the advisory indicating they felt sepsis was likely.

INTERVENTION

Real-time automated EMR monitoring identified suspected sepsis patients with incomplete bundle measures within 1-hour of completion deadlines and generated reminder pages. Clinicians responsible for intervention group patients received reminder pages; no pages were sent for controls. The primary analysis cohort was the subset of enrolled patients at risk of bundle nonadherent care that had reminder pages generated.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

The primary outcome was orders for all 3-hour bundle elements within guideline time limits. Secondary outcomes included guideline-adherent delivery of all 3-hour bundle elements, 28-day mortality, antibiotic discontinuation within 48-hours, and pathogen recovery from any culture within 7 days of time-zero. Among 3,269 enrolled patients, 1,377 had reminder pages generated and were included in the primary analysis. There were 670 (48.7%) at-risk patients randomized to paging alerts and 707 (51.3%) to control. Bundle-adherent orders were placed for 198 intervention patients (29.6%) versus 149 (21.1%) controls (difference: 8.5%; 95% CI, 3.9-13.1%; p = 0.0003). Bundle-adherent care was delivered for 152 (22.7%) intervention versus 121 (17.1%) control patients (difference: 5.6%; 95% CI, 1.4-9.8%; p = 0.0095). Mortality was similar between groups (8.4% vs 8.3%), as were early antibiotic discontinuation (35.1% vs 33.4%) and pan-culture negativity (69.0% vs 68.2%).

CONCLUSIONS

Real-time monitoring and paging alerts significantly increased orders for and delivery of guideline-adherent care for suspected sepsis patients at risk of 3-hour bundle nonadherence. The trial was underpowered to determine whether adherence affected mortality. Despite enrolling patients with clinically suspected sepsis, early antibiotic discontinuation and pan-culture negativity were common, highlighting challenges in identifying appropriate patients for sepsis bundle application.

Construction and validation of a mitochondria-associated genes prognostic signature and immune microenvironment characteristic of sepsis

BACKGROUND

Sepsis is a common critical condition seen in clinical settings, with mitochondrial dysfunction playing an important role in the progression of sepsis. However, a mitochondrial prognosis model related to sepsis has not been established yet, and the relationship between the sepsis immune microenvironment and mitochondria remains unclear.

METHODS

Sepsis prognostic mitochondria-associated genes (MiAGs) were screened by univariate Cox, multivariate Cox, and LASSO analysis from the GEO dataset. Consensus Cluster was used to analyze MiAGs-based molecular subtypes for sepsis. The ESTIMATE and ssGSEA algorithms were used to analyze the situation of sepsis immune cell infiltration and its relation to MiAGs. Further, MiAGs score was calculated to construct a sepsis prognosis risk model to predict the prognosis of sepsis patients. Clinical blood samples were used to investigate the expression level of selected MiAGs in sepsis. Single-cell sequencing analysis, mitochondrial membrane potential (MMP), reactive oxygen species (ROS), and ATP detection were used to verify the influence of MiAGs on mitochondrial dysfunction in sepsis.

RESULTS

A total of 5 MiAGs of sepsis were screened. Based on MiAGs, sepsis MiAGs subtypes were analyzed, where Cluster A had a better prognosis than Cluster B, and there were significant differences in immune infiltration between the two clusters. The sepsis mitochondrial prognosis model suggested that the high MiAG score group had a shorter survival time compared to the low MiAG score group. Significant differences were also observed in the immune microenvironment between the high and low MiAG score groups. Prognostic analysis and the Nomogram indicated that the MiAG score is an independent prognostic factor in sepsis. Single-cell sequencing analysis exhibited the possible influence of MiAGs on the mitochondrial function of monocytes. Finally, the downregulation of the COX7B could effectively improve mitochondrial function in the LPS-stimulated sepsis model.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that MiAGs can be used to predict the prognosis of sepsis and that regulating the mitochondrial prognostic gene COX7B can effectively improve the mitochondrial function of immune cells in sepsis.

Risk of Misleading Conclusions in Observational Studies of Time-to-Antibiotics and Mortality in Suspected Sepsis

BACKGROUND

Influential studies conclude that each hour until antibiotics increases mortality in sepsis. However, these analyses often (1) adjusted for limited covariates, (2) included patients with long delays until antibiotics, (3) combined sepsis and septic shock, and (4) used linear models presuming each hour delay has equal impact. We evaluated the effect of these analytic choices on associations between time-to-antibiotics and mortality.

METHODS

We retrospectively identified 104 248 adults admitted to 5 hospitals from 2015-2022 with suspected infection (blood culture collection and intravenous antibiotics ≤24 h of arrival), including 25 990 with suspected septic shock and 23 619 with sepsis without shock. We used multivariable regression to calculate associations between time-to-antibiotics and in-hospital mortality under successively broader confounding-adjustment, shorter maximum time-to-antibiotic intervals, stratification by illness severity, and removing assumptions of linear hourly associations.

RESULTS

Changing covariates, maximum time-to-antibiotics, and severity stratification altered the magnitude, direction, and significance of observed associations between time-to-antibiotics and mortality. In a fully adjusted model of patients treated ≤6 hours, each hour was associated with higher mortality for septic shock (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.07; 95% CI: 1.04-1.11) but not sepsis without shock (aOR: 1.03; .98-1.09) or suspected infection alone (aOR: .99; .94-1.05). Modeling each hour separately confirmed that every hour of delay was associated with increased mortality for septic shock, but only delays >6 hours were associated with higher mortality for sepsis without shock.

CONCLUSIONS

Associations between time-to-antibiotics and mortality in sepsis are highly sensitive to analytic choices. Failure to adequately address these issues can generate misleading conclusions.

Diagnostic suspicion bias and machine learning: Breaking the awareness deadlock for sepsis detection

Many early warning algorithms are downstream of clinical evaluation and diagnostic testing, which means that they may not be useful when clinicians fail to suspect illness and fail to order appropriate tests. Depending on how such algorithms handle missing data, they could even indicate "low risk" simply because the testing data were never ordered. We considered predictive methodologies to identify sepsis at triage, before diagnostic tests are ordered, in a busy Emergency Department (ED). One algorithm used "bland clinical data" (data available at triage for nearly every patient). The second algorithm added three yes/no questions to be answered after the triage interview. Retrospectively, we studied adult patients from a single ED between 2014-16, separated into training (70%) and testing (30%) cohorts, and a final validation cohort of patients from four EDs between 2016-2018. Sepsis was defined per the Rhee criteria. Investigational predictors were demographics and triage vital signs (downloaded from the hospital EMR); past medical history; and the auxiliary queries (answered by chart reviewers who were blinded to all data except the triage note and initial HPI). We developed L2-regularized logistic regression models using a greedy forward feature selection. There were 1164, 499, and 784 patients in the training, testing, and validation cohorts, respectively. The bland clinical data model yielded ROC AUC's 0.78 (0.76-0.81) and 0.77 (0.73-0.81), for training and testing, respectively, and ranged from 0.74-0.79 in four hospital validation. The second model which included auxiliary queries yielded 0.84 (0.82-0.87) and 0.83 (0.79-0.86), and ranged from 0.78-0.83 in four hospital validation. The first algorithm did not require clinician input but yielded middling performance. The second showed a trend towards superior performance, though required additional user effort. These methods are alternatives to predictive algorithms downstream of clinical evaluation and diagnostic testing. For hospital early warning algorithms, consideration should be given to bias and usability of various methods.

Comprehensive single-cell analysis reveals novel anergic antigen-presenting cell subtypes in human sepsis

Background

Sepsis is a life-threatening condition with high mortality. A few studies have emerged utilizing single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) to analyze gene expression at the single-cell resolution in sepsis, but a comprehensive high-resolution analysis of blood antigen-presenting cells has not been conducted.

Methods

All published human scRNA-seq data were downloaded from the single cell portal database. After manually curating the dataset, we extracted all antigen-presenting cells, including dendritic cells (DCs) and monocytes, for identification of cell subpopulations and their gene profiling and intercellular interactions between septic patients and healthy controls. Finally, we further validated the findings by performing deconvolution analysis on bulk RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) data and flow cytometry.

Results

Within the traditional DC populations, we discovered novel anergic DC subtypes characterized by low major histocompatibility complex class II expression. Notably, these anergic DC subtypes showed a significant increase in septic patients. Additionally, we found that a previously reported immunosuppressive monocyte subtype, Mono1, exhibited a similar gene expression profile to these anergic DCs. The consistency of our findings was confirmed through validation using bulk RNA-seq and flow cytometry, ensuring accurate identification of cell subtypes and gene expression patterns.

Conclusions

This study represents the first comprehensive single-cell analysis of antigen-presenting cells in human sepsis, revealing novel disease-associated anergic DC subtypes. These findings provide new insights into the cellular mechanisms of immune dysregulation in bacterial sepsis.

The association between mortality and door-to-antibiotic time: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PURPOSE

Previous studies evaluating the impact of antibiotic timing on mortality in sepsis have shown conflicting results. We performed a meta-analysis to evaluate the association between door-to-antibiotic time (each hour of delay) and mortality in sepsis.

METHODS

We searched PubMed and Embase through 10 November 2022 to identity cohort studies that evaluated the adjusted association between door-to-antibiotic time (each hour of delay) and mortality in adult patients with sepsis. The primary outcome was mortality. Analysis was based on inverse-variance weighting using a fixed-effects model. The variances were derived from the logarithms of the reported confidence intervals (CIs) for associations. We estimated the odds ratio, 95% CI, and number needed to treat for the pooled data.

RESULTS

Fifteen cohort studies involving 106 845 patients were included in the meta-analysis. Door-to-antibiotic time (each hour of delay) was associated with increased risk of mortality (odds ratio: 1.07; 95% CI: 1.06-1.08; P < 0.0001; number needed to treat = 91), with high heterogeneity (I2 = 82.2%). The association was robust in sensitivity analyses and consistent in subgroup analyses. No publication bias was found.

CONCLUSION

In adult patients with sepsis, each hour of delay in antibiotic administration is associated with increased odds of mortality. Key messages What is already known on this topic Sepsis is a common and lethal syndrome that affects millions of people worldwide. The updated 2018 Surviving Sepsis Campaign guidelines recommended initiating empirical broad-spectrum antibiotic coverage within 1 hour of identification of sepsis and septic shock. Delay in antibiotic administration may increase the risk of mortality in patients with sepsis. What this study adds This meta-analysis evaluates and quantifies the association between door-to-antibiotic time (each hour of delay) and mortality in patients with sepsis. Each hour of delay in antibiotic administration is associated with increased odds of mortality in sepsis. The number needed to treat (NNT) with delayed antibiotic administration for one additional death was 91. How this study might affect research, practice, or policy: More efforts should be made to speed up the diagnosis of sepsis or sepsis shock.

Clinical Phenotypes of Sepsis in a Cohort of Hospitalized Patients According to Infection Site

OBJECTIVES

Clinical sepsis phenotypes may be defined by a wide range of characteristics such as site of infection, organ dysfunction patterns, laboratory values, and demographics. There is a paucity of literature regarding the impact of site of infection on the timing and pattern of clinical sepsis markers. This study hypothesizes that important phenotypic variation in clinical markers and outcomes of sepsis exists when stratified by infection site.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Five hospitals within the Wake Forest Health System from June 2019 to December 2019.

PATIENTS

Six thousand seven hundred fifty-three hospitalized adults with a discharge International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision code for acute infection who met systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), or Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) criteria during the index hospitalization.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

The primary outcome of interest was a composite of 30-day mortality or shock. Infection site was determined by a two-reviewer process. Significant demographic, vital sign, and laboratory result differences were seen across all infection sites. For the composite outcome of shock or 30-day mortality, unknown or unspecified infections had the highest proportion (21.34%) and CNS infections had the lowest proportion (8.11%). Respiratory, vascular, and unknown or unspecified infection sites showed a significantly increased adjusted and unadjusted odds of the composite outcome as compared with the other infection sites except CNS. Hospital time prior to SIRS positivity was shortest in unknown or unspecified infections at a median of 0.88 hours (interquartile range [IQR], 0.22-5.05 hr), and hospital time prior to qSOFA and SOFA positivity was shortest in respiratory infections at a median of 54.83 hours (IQR, 9.55-104.67 hr) and 1.88 hours (IQR, 0.47-17.40 hr), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Phenotypic variation in illness severity and mortality exists when stratified by infection site. There is a significantly higher adjusted and unadjusted odds of the composite outcome of 30-day mortality or shock in respiratory, vascular, and unknown or unspecified infections as compared with other sites.

SEPSIS UNIT IN THE EMERGENCY DEPARTMENT: IMPACT ON MANAGEMENT AND OUTCOME OF SEPTIC PATIENTS

ABSTRACT

Study hypothesis : Implementation of a new pathway dedicated to septic patients within the emergency department (ED) would improve early management, organ dysfunction, and outcome. Methods: During phase 1, all consecutive adult patients with infection and qualifying quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score upon ED admission were managed according to standards of care. A multifaceted intervention was then performed (implementation phase): educational program, creation of a sepsis alert upon ED admission incorporated in the professional software, together with severity scores and Surviving Sepsis Campaign (SSC) bundle reminders, and dedication of two rooms to the management of septic patients (sepsis unit). During phase 2, patients were managed according to this new organization. Results: Of the 89,040 patients admitted to the ED over the two phases, 2,643 patients (3.2%) had sepsis including 277 with a qualifying qSOFA score on admission (phase 1, 141 patients; phase 2, 136 patients). Recommendations of SSC 3-h bundle significantly improved between the two periods regarding lactate measurement (87% vs. 96%, P = 0.006), initiation of fluid resuscitation (36% vs. 65%, P < 0.001), blood cultures sampling (83% vs. 93%, P = 0.014), and administration of antibiotics (18% vs. 46%, P < 0.001). The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score between H0 and H12 varied significantly more during phase 2 (1.9 ± 1.9 vs. 0.8 ± 2.6, P < 0.001). Mortality significantly decreased during the second phase, on day 3 (28% vs. 15%, P = 0.008) and on day 28 (40% vs. 28%, P = 0.013). Conclusion: Systematic detection, education, and per protocol organization with a sepsis unit dedicated to the early management of septic patients appear to improve compliance with SSC bundles, organ dysfunction, and short-term mortality. These results warrant to be confirmed by prospective studies.

Unexplained hypothermia is associated with bacterial infection in the Emergency Department

BACKGROUND

Early recognition and antibiotic therapy improve the prognosis of bacterial infections. Triage temperature in the Emergency department (ED) constitutes a diagnostic and prognostic marker of infection. The objective of this study was to assess the prevalence of community-acquired bacterial infections and the diagnostic ability of conventional biological markers in patients presenting to the ED with hypothermia.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective single-center study over a 1-year period before the COVID-19 pandemic. Consecutive adult patients admitted to the ED with hypothermia (body temperature < 36.0 °C) were eligible. Patients with evident cause of hypothermia and patients with viral infections were excluded. Diagnosis of infection was based on the presence of at least two among the three following pre-defined criteria: (i) the presence of a potential source of infection, (ii) microbiology data, and (iii) patient outcome under antibiotic therapy. The association between traditional biomarkers (white blood cells, lymphocytes, C-reactive protein [CRP], Neutrophil to Lymphocyte Count Ratio [NLCR]) and underlying bacterial infections was evaluated using a univariate and a multivariate (logistic regression) analysis. Receiver operating characteristic curves were built to determine threshold values yielding the best sensitivity and specificity for each biomarker.

RESULTS

Of 490 patients admitted to the ED with hypothermia during the study period, 281 were excluded for circumstantial or viral origin, and 209 were finally studied (108 men; mean age: 73 ± 17 years). A bacterial infection was diagnosed in 59 patients (28%) and was mostly related to Gram-negative microorganisms (68%). The area under the curve (AUC) for the CRP level was 0.82 with a confidence interval (CI) ranging from 0.75 to 0.89. The AUC for the leukocyte, neutrophil and lymphocyte counts were 0.54 (CI: 0.45-0.64), 0.58 (CI: 0.48-0.68) and 0.74 (CI: 0.66-0.82), respectively. The AUC of NLCR and quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) reached 0.70 (CI: 0.61-0.79) and 0.61 (CI: 0.52-0.70), respectively. In the multivariate analysis, CRP ≥ 50 mg/L (OR: 9.39; 95% CI: 3.91-24.14; p < 0.01) and a NLCR ≥10 (OR: 2.73; 95% CI: 1.20-6.12; p = 0.02) were identified as independent variables associated with the diagnosis of underlying bacterial infection.

CONCLUSION

Community-acquired bacterial infections represent one third of diagnoses in an unselected population presenting to the ED with unexplained hypothermia. CRP level and NLCR appear useful for the diagnosis of causative bacterial infection.

Difficult diagnosis in the ICU: making the right call but beware uncertainty and bias

Dealing with an uncertain or missed diagnosis is commonplace in the intensive care unit setting. Affected patients are subject to a potential decrease in quality of care and a greater risk of a poor outcome. The diagnostic process is a complex task that starts with information gathering, followed by integration and interpretation of data, hypothesis generation and, finally, confirmation of a (hopefully correct) diagnosis. This may be particularly challenging in the patient who is critically ill where a good history may not be forthcoming and/or clinical, laboratory and imaging features are non-specific. The aim of this narrative review is to analyse and describe common causes of diagnostic error in the intensive care unit, highlighting the multiple types of cognitive bias, and to suggest a diagnostic framework. To inform this review, we performed a literature search to identify relevant articles, particularly those pertinent to unclear diagnoses in patients who are critically ill. Clinicians should be cognisant as to how they formulate diagnoses and utilise debiasing strategies. Multidisciplinary teamwork and more time spent with the patient, supported by effective and efficient use of electronic healthcare records and decision support resources, is likely to improve the quality of the diagnostic process, patient care and outcomes.

Host Response Biomarkers for Sepsis in the Emergency Room

This article is one of ten reviews selected from the Annual Update in Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine 2023. Other selected articles can be found online at https://www.biomedcentral.com/collections/annualupdate2023 . Further information about the Annual Update in Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine is available from https://link.springer.com/bookseries/8901 .

Predictors of outcomes in emergency department patients with suspected infections and without fulfillment of the sepsis criteria

BACKGROUND

Data on patient characteristics and determinants of serious outcomes for acutely admitted patients with infections who do not fulfill the sepsis criteria are sparse. The study aimed to characterize acutely admitted emergency department (ED) patients with infections and a composite outcome of in-hospital mortality or transfer to the intensive care unit without fulfilling the criteria for sepsis and to examine predictors of the composite outcome.

METHODS

This was a secondary analysis of data from a prospective observational study of patients with suspected bacterial infection admitted to the ED between October 1, 2017 and March 31, 2018. A National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) ≥ 5 within the first 4 h in the ED was assumed to represent a sepsis-like condition with a high risk for the composite endpoint. Patients who achieved the composite outcome were grouped according to fulfillment of the NEWS2 ≥ 5 criteria. We used logistic regression analysis to estimate the unadjusted and adjusted odds ratio (OR) for the composite endpoint among patients with either NEWS2  < 5 (NEWS2-) or NEWS2  ≥ 5 (NEWS2+).

RESULTS

A total of 2055 patients with a median age of 73 years were included. Of these, 198 (9.6%) achieved the composite endpoint, including 59 (29.8%) NEWS2- and 139 (70.2%) NEWS2+ patients, respectively. Diabetes (OR 2.23;1.23-4.0), a Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score ≥ 2 (OR 2.57;1.37-4.79), and a Do-not-attempt-cardiopulmonary-resuscitation order (DNACPR) on admission (OR 3.70;1.75-7.79) were independent predictive variables for the composite endpoint in NEWS2- patients (goodness-of-fit test P = 0.291; area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the model (AUROC) = 0.72). The regression model for NEWS2+ patients revealed that a SOFA score ≥ 2 (OR 2.79; 1.59-4.91), hypothermia (OR 2.48;1.30-4.75), and DNACPR order on admission were predictive variables for the composite endpoint (goodness-of-fit test P = 0.62; AUROC for the model = 0.70).

CONCLUSION

Approximately one-third of the patients with infections and serious outcomes during hospitalization did not meet the NEWS2 threshold for likely sepsis. Our study identified factors with independent predictive values for the development of serious outcomes that should be tested in future prediction models.

Diagnostic Delays in Sepsis: Lessons Learned From a Retrospective Study of Canadian Medico-Legal Claims

Although rapid treatment improves outcomes for patients presenting with sepsis, early detection can be difficult, especially in otherwise healthy adults.

OBJECTIVES

Using medico-legal data, we aimed to identify areas of focus to assist with early recognition of sepsis.

DESIGN SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Retrospective descriptive design. We analyzed closed medico-legal cases involving physicians from a national database repository at the Canadian Medical Protective Association. The study included cases closed between 2011 and 2020 that had documented peer expert criticism of a diagnostic issue related to sepsis or relevant infections.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

We used univariate statistics to describe patients and physicians and applied published frameworks to classify contributing factors (provider, team, system) and diagnostic pitfalls based on peer expert criticisms.

RESULTS

Of 162 involved patients, the median age was 53 years (interquartile range [IQR], 34-66 yr) and mortality was 49%. Of 218 implicated physicians, 169 (78%) were from family medicine, emergency medicine, or surgical specialties. Eighty patients (49%) made multiple visits to outpatient care leading up to sepsis recognition/hospitalization (median = two visits; IQR, 2-4). Almost 40% of patients were admitted to the ICU. Deficient assessments, such as failing to consider sepsis or not reassessing the patient prior to discharge, contributed to the majority of cases (81%).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Sepsis continues to be a challenging diagnosis for clinicians. Multiple visits to outpatient care may be an early warning sign requiring vigilance in the patient assessment.

An analysis of patients with a chief complaint of difficulty moving

Objective: There have been few reports in English medical journals analyzing patients with difficulty moving. Herein, we conducted a retrospective survey of emergency patients admitted to our hospital with the chief complaint of difficulty moving, to clarify the clinical characteristics of the frequency, causative disease, and outcome in these patients. Patients and Methods: Between August 2017 and October 2021, we surveyed the patient database maintained by our department, covering cases in which the main complaint at the time of patient transport by ambulance to our hospital was difficulty moving. Results: In 111 cases, the patient's primary complaint was difficulty moving or adynamia. Patients included 59 males and 52 females, with a mean age of 76.3 years old. The most frequent diagnosis in these patients was rhabdomyolysis, followed by infection, body temperature abnormalities, electrolyte disorder, blood glucose abnormality, hypoxia, and renal failure. Trauma and various other diseases, such as stroke and malignancy, were also found to be causative diseases. After discharge from the hospital, the number of patients with a dependent status was greater than those with an independent status. Conclusion: Patients with difficulty moving were primarily elderly, and had a variety of causative diseases. Therefore, multiple approaches are required to manage these patients.

SEPRES: Intensive Care Unit Clinical Data Integration System to Predict Sepsis

BACKGROUND

The lack of information interoperability between different devices and systems in the intensive care unit (ICU) hinders further utilization of data, especially for early warning of specific diseases in the ICU.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to establish a data integration system. Based on this system, the sepsis prediction module was added to compose the Sepsis PREdiction System (SEPRES), where real-time early warning of sepsis can be implemented at the bedside in the ICU.

METHODS

Data are collected from bedside devices through the integration hub and uploaded to the integration system through the local area network. The data integration system was designed to integrate vital signs data, laboratory data, ventilator data, demographic data, pharmacy data, nursing data, etc. from multiple medical devices and systems. It integrates, standardizes, and stores information, making the real-time inference of the early warning module possible. The built-in sepsis early warning module can detect the onset of sepsis within 5 hours preceding at most.

RESULTS

Our data integration system has already been deployed in Ruijin Hospital, confirming the feasibility of our system.

CONCLUSION

We highlight that SEPRES has the potential to improve ICU management by helping medical practitioners identify at-sepsis-risk patients and prepare for timely diagnosis and intervention.

Outcomes Associated With Rural Emergency Department Provider-to-Provider Telehealth for Sepsis Care: A Multicenter Cohort Study

STUDY OBJECTIVE

To test the hypothesis that provider-to-provider tele-emergency department care is associated with more 28-day hospital-free days and improved Surviving Sepsis Campaign (SSC) guideline adherence in rural emergency departments (EDs).

METHODS

Multicenter (n=23), propensity-matched, cohort study using medical records of patients with sepsis from rural hospitals in an established, on-demand, rural video tele-ED network in the upper Midwest between August 2016 and June 2019. The primary outcome was 28-day hospital-free days, with secondary outcomes of 28-day inhospital mortality and SSC guideline adherence.

RESULTS

A total of 1,191 patients were included in the analysis, with tele-ED used for 326 (27%). Tele-ED cases were more likely to be transferred to another hospital (88% versus 8%, difference 79%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 75% to 83%). After matching and regression adjustment, tele-ED cases did not have more 28-day hospital-free days (difference 0.07 days more for tele-ED, 95% CI -0.04 to 0.17) or 28-day inhospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.51, 95% CI 0.16 to 1.60). Adherence with both the SSC 3-hour bundle (aOR 0.59, 95% CI 0.28 to 1.22) and complete bundle (aOR 0.45, 95% CI 0.02 to 11.60) were similar. An a priori-defined subgroup of patients treated by advanced practice providers suggested that the mortality was lower in the cohort with tele-ED use (aOR 0.11, 95% CI 0.02 to 0.73) despite no significant difference in complete SSC bundle adherence (aOR 2.88, 95% CI 0.52 to 15.86).

CONCLUSION

Rural emergency department patients treated with provider-to-provider tele-ED care in a mature network appear to have similar clinical outcomes to those treated without.

Transferability and interpretability of the sepsis prediction models in the intensive care unit

BACKGROUND

We aimed to develop an early warning system for real-time sepsis prediction in the ICU by machine learning methods, with tools for interpretative analysis of the predictions. In particular, we focus on the deployment of the system in a target medical center with small historical samples.

METHODS

Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) were trained on Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-III) dataset and then finetuned on the private Historical Database of local Ruijin Hospital (HDRJH) using transfer learning technique. The Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) analysis was employed to characterize the feature importance in the prediction inference. Ultimately, the performance of the sepsis prediction system was further evaluated in the real-world study in the ICU of the target Ruijin Hospital.

RESULTS

The datasets comprised 6891 patients from MIMIC-III, 453 from HDRJH, and 67 from Ruijin real-world data. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) for LightGBM and MLP models derived from MIMIC-III were 0.98 - 0.98 and 0.95 - 0.96 respectively on MIMIC-III dataset, and, in comparison, 0.82 - 0.86 and 0.84 - 0.87 respectively on HDRJH, from 1 to  5 h preceding. After transfer learning and ensemble learning, the AUCs of the final ensemble model were enhanced to 0.94 - 0.94 on HDRJH and to 0.86 - 0.9 in the real-world study in the ICU of the target Ruijin Hospital. In addition, the SHAP analysis illustrated the importance of age, antibiotics, net balance, and ventilation for sepsis prediction, making the model interpretable.

CONCLUSIONS

Our machine learning model allows accurate real-time prediction of sepsis within 5-h preceding. Transfer learning can effectively improve the feasibility to deploy the prediction model in the target cohort, and ameliorate the model performance for external validation. SHAP analysis indicates that the role of antibiotic usage and fluid management needs further investigation. We argue that our system and methodology have the potential to improve ICU management by helping medical practitioners identify at-sepsis-risk patients and prepare for timely diagnosis and intervention.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT05088850 (retrospectively registered).

Timing and Spectrum of Antibiotic Treatment for Suspected Sepsis and Septic Shock: Why so Controversial?

Sepsis guidelines and mandates encourage increasingly aggressive time-to-antibiotic targets for broad-spectrum antimicrobials for suspected sepsis and septic shock. This has caused considerable controversy due to weaknesses in the underlying evidence and fear that overly strict antibiotic deadlines may harm patients by perpetuating or escalating overtreatment. Indeed, a third or more of patients currently treated for sepsis and septic shock have noninfectious or nonbacterial conditions. These patients risk all the potential harms of antibiotics without their possible benefits. Updated Surviving Sepsis Campaign guidelines now emphasize the importance of tailoring antibiotics to each patient's likelihood of infection, risk for drug-resistant pathogens, and severity-of-illness.

Immune Modulation in Sepsis, ARDS, and Covid-19 - The Road Traveled and the Road Ahead

Immune Modulation in Sepsis, ARDS, and Covid-19Leligdowicz et al. consider the history and future of immunomodulating therapies in sepsis and ARDS, including ARDS due to Covid-19, and remark on the larger challenge of clinical research on therapies for syndromes with profound clinical and biologic heterogeneity.

Antibiotics: it is all about timing, isn't it?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Sepsis guidelines and quality measures set aggressive deadlines for administering antibiotics to patients with possible sepsis or septic shock. However, the diagnosis of sepsis is often uncertain, particularly upon initial presentation, and pressure to treat more rapidly may harm some patients by exposing them to unnecessary or inappropriate broad-spectrum antibiotics.

RECENT FINDINGS

Observational studies that report that each hour until antibiotics increases mortality often fail to adequately adjust for comorbidities and severity of illness, fail to account for antibiotics given to uninfected patients, and inappropriately blend the effects of long delays with short delays. Accounting for these factors weakens or eliminates the association between time-to-antibiotics and mortality, especially for patients without shock. These findings are underscored by analyses of the Centers for Medicaid and Medicare Services SEP-1 measure: it has increased sepsis diagnoses and broad-spectrum antibiotic use but has not improved outcomes.

SUMMARY

Clinicians are advised to tailor the urgency of antibiotics to their certainty of infection and patients' severity of illness. Immediate antibiotics are warranted for patients with possible septic shock or high likelihood of infection. Antibiotics can safely be withheld to allow for more investigation, however, in most patients with less severe illnesses if the diagnosis of infection is uncertain.

High prevalence of infections in non-COVID-19 patients admitted to the Emergency Department with severe lymphopenia

Background

In the Emergency Department (ED), early and accurate recognition of infection is crucial to prompt antibiotic therapy but the initial presentation of patients is variable and poorly characterized. Lymphopenia is commonly associated with bacteraemia and poor outcome in intensive care unit patients. The objective of this retrospective study was to assess the prevalence of community-acquired infection in a cohort of unselected patients admitted to the ED with undifferentiated symptoms and severe lymphopenia.

Methods

This is a retrospective single-center study conducted over a 1 year-period before the COVID-19 pandemic. Consecutive adult patients admitted to the ED with severe lymphopenia (lymphocyte count < 0.5 G/L) were studied. Patients with hematological or oncological diseases, HIV infection, hepato-cellular deficiency, immunosuppression, or patients over 85 years old were excluded. Diagnoses of infection were validated by an independent adjudication committee. The association between various parameters and infection was assessed using a multivariate logistic regression analysis.

Results

Of 953 patients admitted to the ED with severe lymphopenia, 245 were studied (148 men; mean age: 63 ± 19 years). Infection was confirmed in 159 patients (65%) (bacterial: 60%, viral: 30%, other: 10%). Only 61 patients (25%) were referred to the ED for a suspected infection. In the univariate analysis, SIRS criteria (OR: 5.39; 95%CI: 3.04–9.70; p < 0.001) and temperature ≥ 38.3 °C (OR: 10.95; 95%CI: 5.39–22.26; p < 0.001) were strongly associate with infection. In the multivariate analysis, only SIRS criteria (OR: 2.4; 95%CI: 1.48–3.9; p < 0.01) and fever (OR: 3.35; 95%CI: 1.26–8.93; p = 0.016) were independently associated with infection.

Conclusions

The prevalence of underlying infection is high in patients admitted to the ED with lymphopenia, irrespective of the reason for admission. Whether lymphopenia could constitute a valuable marker of underlying infection in this clinical setting remains to be confirmed prospectively in larger cohorts.

Trial registration: No registration required as this is a retrospective study.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07295-5.

Challenging management dogma where evidence is non-existent, weak or outdated

Medical practice is dogged by dogma. A conclusive evidence base is lacking for many aspects of patient management. Clinicians, therefore, rely upon engrained treatment strategies as the dogma seems to work, or at least is assumed to do so. Evidence is often distorted, overlooked or misapplied in the re-telling. However, it is incorporated as fact in textbooks, policies, guidelines and protocols with resource and medicolegal implications. We provide here four examples of medical dogma that underline the above points: loop diuretic treatment for acute heart failure; the effectiveness of heparin thromboprophylaxis; the rate of sodium correction for hyponatraemia; and the mantra of "each hour counts" for treating meningitis. It is notable that the underpinning evidence is largely unsupportive of these doctrines. We do not necessarily advocate change, but rather encourage critical reflection on current practices and the need for prospective studies.

A Clinical Diagnostic Study: Fibulin-2 is a Novel Promising Biomarker for Predicting Infection

Introduction

Infection remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality in hospital. As uncontrolled early infection may develop into systemic infection and eventually progress to sepsis, it is important to address infection at an early stage. Furthermore, early detection and prompt diagnosis of infection are the basis of clinical intervention. However, as a result of the interference of complex aetiologies, including fever and trauma, problems regarding the sensitivity and specificity of current diagnostic indices remain, such as for C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), white blood cells (WBC), neutrophil ratio (NEU%), interleukin-6 (IL-6) and D-dimer. As a result, there is an urgent need to develop new biomarkers to diagnose infection.

Methods

From January to October 2021, consecutive patients in the emergency department (ED) were recruited to investigate the feasibility of fibulin-2 as a diagnostic indicator of early infection. Fibulin-2 concentrations in plasma were determined with enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The performance of fibulin-2 for predicting infection was analysed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.

Results

We found that the plasma fibulin-2 level was elevated in patients with infection compared with those without infection. ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve (AUC) for fibulin-2 was 0.712. For all patients included, the diagnostic ability of fibulin-2 (AUC 0.712) performed as well as CRP (AUC 0.667) and PCT (AUC 0.632), and better than WBC (AUC 0.620), NEU% (AUC 0.619), IL-6 (AUC 0.561) and D-dimer (AUC 0.630). In patients with fever, fibulin-2 performed as well as PCT and better than the other biomarkers in infection diagnosis. In particular, fibulin-2 performed better than all these biomarkers in patients with trauma.

Conclusion

Fibulin-2 is a novel promising diagnostic biomarker for predicting infection.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40121-022-00622-y.

Modeling of Usual Care: Vasopressor Initiation for Sepsis With Hypotension

Usual care regarding vasopressor initiation is ill-defined. We aimed to develop a quantitative “dynamic practice” model for usual care in the emergency department (ED) regarding the timing of vasopressor initiation in sepsis. In a retrospective study of 589 septic patients with hypotension in an urban tertiary care center ED, we developed a multi-variable model that distinguishes between patients who did and did not subsequently receive sustained (>24 h) vasopressor therapy. Candidate predictors were vital signs, intravenous fluid (IVF) volumes, laboratory measurements, and elapsed time from triage computed at timepoints leading up to the final decision timepoint of either vasopressor initiation or ED hypotension resolution without vasopressors. A model with six independently significant covariates (respiratory rate, Glasgow Coma Scale score, SBP, SpO₂, administered IVF, and elapsed time) achieved a C-statistic of 0.78 in a held-out test set at the final decision timepoint, demonstrating the ability to reliably model usual care for vasopressor initiation for hypotensive septic patients. The included variables measured depth of hypotension, extent of disease severity and organ dysfunction. At an operating point of 90% specificity, the model identified a minority of patients (39%) more than an hour before actual vasopressor initiation, during which time a median of 2,250 (IQR 1,200–3,300) mL of IVF was administered. This single-center analysis shows the feasibility of a quantitative, objective tool for describing usual care. Dynamic practice models may help assess when management was atypical; such tools may also be useful for designing and interpreting clinical trials.

Septic patients without obvious signs of infection at baseline are more likely to die in the ICU

Objective

Early identification of sepsis is mandatory. However, clinical presentation is sometimes misleading given the lack of infection signs. The objective of the study was to evaluate the impact on the 28-day mortality of the so-called “vague” presentation of sepsis.

Design

Single centre retrospective observational study.

Setting

One teaching hospital Intensive Care Unit.

Subjects

All the patients who presented at the Emergency Department (ED) and were thereafter admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) with a final diagnosis of sepsis were included in this retrospective observational three-year study. They were classified as having exhibited either “vague” or explicit presentation at the ED according to previously suggested criteria. Baseline characteristics, infection main features and sepsis management were compared. The impact of a vague presentation on 28-day mortality was then evaluated.

Interventions

None.

Measurements and main results

Among the 348 included patients, 103 (29.6%) had a vague sepsis presentation. Underlying chronic diseases were more likely in those patients [e.g., peripheral arterial occlusive disease: adjusted odd ratio (aOR) = 2.01, (1.08–3.77) 95% confidence interval (CI); p = 0.028], but organ failure was less likely at the ED [SOFA score value: 4.7 (3.2) vs. 5.2 (3.1), p = 0.09]. In contrast, 28-day mortality was higher in the vague presentation group (40.8% vs. 26.9%, p = 0.011), along with longer time-to-diagnosis [18 (31) vs. 4 (11) h, p < 0.001], time-to-antibiotics [20 (32) vs. 7 (12) h, p < 0.001] and time to ICU admission [71 (159) vs. 24 (69) h, p < 0.001]. Whatever, such a vague presentation independently predicted 28-day mortality [aOR = 2.14 (1.24–3.68) 95% CI; p = 0.006].

Conclusions

Almost one third of septic patient requiring ICU had a vague presentation at the ED. Despite an apparent lower level of severity when initially assessed, those patients had an increased risk of mortality that could not be fully explained by delayed diagnosis and management of sepsis.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07210-y.

Hour-1 bundle adherence was associated with reduction of in-hospital mortality among patients with sepsis in Japan

BACKGROUND

The updated Surviving Sepsis Campaign guidelines recommend a 1-hour window for completion of a sepsis care bundle; however, the effectiveness of the hour-1 bundle has not been fully evaluated. The present study aimed to evaluate the impact of hour-1 bundle completion on clinical outcomes in sepsis patients.

METHODS

This was a multicenter, prospective, observational study conducted in 17 intensive care units in tertiary hospitals in Japan. We included all adult patients who were diagnosed as having sepsis by Sepsis-3 and admitted to intensive care units from July 2019 to August 2020. Impacts of hour-1 bundle adherence and delay of adherence on risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality were estimated by multivariable logistic regression analyses.

RESULTS

The final study cohort included 178 patients with sepsis. Among them, 89 received bundle-adherent care. Completion rates of each component (measure lactate level, obtain blood cultures, administer broad-spectrum antibiotics, administer crystalloid, apply vasopressors) within 1 hour were 98.9%, 86.2%, 51.1%, 94.9%, and 69.1%, respectively. Completion rate of all components within 1 hour was 50%. In-hospital mortality was 18.0% in the patients with and 30.3% in the patients without bundle-adherent care (p = 0.054). The adjusted odds ratio of non-bundle-adherent versus bundle-adherent care for in-hospital mortality was 2.32 (95% CI 1.09-4.95) using propensity scoring. Non-adherence to obtaining blood cultures and administering broad-spectrum antibiotics within 1 hour was related to in-hospital mortality (2.65 [95% CI 1.25-5.62] and 4.81 [95% CI 1.38-16.72], respectively). The adjusted odds ratio for 1-hour delay in achieving hour-1 bundle components for in-hospital mortality was 1.28 (95% CI 1.04-1.57) by logistic regression analysis.

CONCLUSION

Completion of the hour-1 bundle was associated with lower in-hospital mortality. Obtaining blood cultures and administering antibiotics within 1 hour may have been the components most contributing to decreased in-hospital mortality.

Antibiotic Timing and Progression to Septic Shock Among Patients in the ED With Suspected Infection

BACKGROUND

Recent medical society opinions have questioned the use of early antimicrobials in patients with sepsis, but without septic shock.

RESEARCH QUESTION

Is time from ED presentation to administration of antibiotics associated with progression to septic shock among patients with suspected infection?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study from March 2007 through March 2020. All adults with suspected infection and first antimicrobial administered within 24 h of triage were included. Patients with shock on presentation were excluded. We performed univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses predicting progression to septic shock.

RESULTS

Seventy-four thousand one hundred fourteen patient encounters were included in the study. Five thousand five hundred ten patients (7.4%) progressed to septic shock. Of the patients who progressed to septic shock, 88% had received antimicrobials within the first 5 h from triage. In the multivariate logistic model, time (in hours) to first antimicrobial administration showed an OR of 1.03 (95% CI, 1.02-1.04; P < .001) for progression to septic shock and 1.02 (95% CI, 0.99-1.04; P = .121) for in-hospital mortality. When adjusted for severity of illness, each hour delayed until initial antimicrobial administration was associated with a 4.0% increase in progression to septic shock for every 1 h up to 24 h from triage. Patients with positive quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) results were given antibiotics at an earlier time point than patients with positive systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) score (0.82 h vs 1.2 h; P < .05). However, median time to septic shock was significantly shorter (P < .05) for patients with positive qSOFA results at triage (11.2 h) compared with patients with positive SIRS score at triage (26 h).

INTERPRETATION

Delays in first antimicrobial administration in patients with suspected infection are associated with rapid increases in likelihood of progression to septic shock. Additionally, qSOFA score has higher specificity than SIRS score for predicting septic shock, but is associated with a worse outcome, even when patients receive early antibiotics.

Patient Heterogeneity and the J-Curve Relationship Between Time-to-Antibiotics and the Outcomes of Patients Admitted With Bacterial Infection

OBJECTIVES

Sepsis remains a leading and preventable cause of hospital utilization and mortality in the United States. Despite updated guidelines, the optimal definition of sepsis as well as optimal timing of bundled treatment remain uncertain. Identifying patients with infection who benefit from early treatment is a necessary step for tailored interventions. In this study, we aimed to illustrate clinical predictors of time-to-antibiotics among patients with severe bacterial infection and model the effect of delay on risk-adjusted outcomes across different sepsis definitions.

DESIGN

A multicenter retrospective observational study.

SETTING

A seven-hospital network including academic tertiary care center.

PATIENTS

Eighteen-thousand three-hundred fifteen patients admitted with severe bacterial illness with or without sepsis by either acute organ dysfunction (AOD) or systemic inflammatory response syndrome positivity.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

The primary exposure was time to antibiotics. We identified patient predictors of time-to-antibiotics including demographics, chronic diagnoses, vitals, and laboratory results and determined the impact of delay on a composite of inhospital death or length of stay over 10 days. Distribution of time-to-antibiotics was similar across patients with and without sepsis. For all patients, a J-curve relationship between time-to-antibiotics and outcomes was observed, primarily driven by length of stay among patients without AOD. Patient characteristics provided good to excellent prediction of time-to-antibiotics irrespective of the presence of sepsis. Reduced time-to-antibiotics was associated with improved outcomes for all time points beyond 2.5 hours from presentation across sepsis definitions.

CONCLUSIONS

Antibiotic timing is a function of patient factors regardless of sepsis criteria. Similarly, we show that early administration of antibiotics is associated with improved outcomes in all patients with severe bacterial illness. Our findings suggest identifying infection is a rate-limiting and actionable step that can improve outcomes in septic and nonseptic patients.

Diagnostic Error in the Critically Ill: A Hidden Epidemic?

Epidemiologic studies of diagnostic error in the intensive care unit (ICU) consist mostly of descriptive autopsy series. In these studies, rates of diagnostic errors are approximately 5% to 10%. Recently validated methods for retrospectively measuring error have expanded our understanding of the scope of the problem. These alternative measurement strategies have yielded similar estimates for the frequency of diagnostic error in the ICU. Although there is a fair understanding of the frequency of errors, further research is needed to better define the risk factors for diagnostic error in the ICU.

Likelihood of Bacterial Infection in Patients Treated With Broad-Spectrum IV Antibiotics in the Emergency Department

OBJECTIVES

Best practice guidelines and quality metrics recommend immediate antibiotic treatment for all patients with suspected sepsis. However, little is known about how many patients given IV antibiotics in the emergency department are ultimately confirmed to have bacterial infection.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS

We performed a retrospective study of adult patients who presented to four Massachusetts emergency departments between June 2015 and June 2018 with suspected serious bacterial infection, defined as blood cultures drawn and broad-spectrum IV antibiotics administered. Structured medical record reviews were performed on a random sample of 300 cases to determine the post hoc likelihood of bacterial infection, categorized as definite, likely, unlikely, or definitely none.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Among the 300 patients with suspected serious bacterial infections, mean age was 68 years (sd 18), median hospital length of stay was 5 days (interquartile range, 3-8 d), 45 (15%) were admitted directly to ICU, and 14 (5%) died in hospital. Overall, 196 (65%) had definite (n = 115; 38%) or likely (n = 81; 27%) bacterial infection, whereas 104 (35%) were unlikely (n = 55; 18%) or definitely not infected (n = 49; 16%). Antibiotic treatment durations differed by likelihood of infection (median 15 days for definite, 9 for likely, 7 for unlikely, and 3 for definitely not infected). The most frequent post hoc diagnoses in patients with unlikely or definitely no bacterial infection included viral infections (28%), volume overload or cardiac disease (9%), drug effects (9%), and hypovolemia (7%). The likelihoods of infection were similar in the subset of 96 cases in whom emergency department providers explicitly documented possible or suspected sepsis and in the 45 patients admitted from the emergency department to the ICU.

CONCLUSIONS

One third of patients empirically treated with broad-spectrum antibiotics in the emergency department are ultimately diagnosed with noninfectious or viral conditions. These findings underscore the difficulty diagnosing serious infections in the emergency department and have important implications for guidelines and quality measures that compel immediate empiric antibiotics for all patients with possible sepsis.

Evaluation of Incident 7-Day Infection and Sepsis Hospitalizations in an Integrated Health System

RATIONALE

Pre-hospital opportunities to predict infection and sepsis hospitalization may exist, but little is known about their incidence following common healthcare encounters.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the incidence and timing of infection and sepsis hospitalization within 7 days of living hospital discharge, emergency department discharge, and ambulatory visit settings.

METHODS

In each setting, we identified patients in clinical strata based on the presence of infection and severity of illness. We estimated number needed to evaluate values with hypothetical predictive model operating characteristics.

RESULTS

We identified 97,614,228 encounters including 1,117,702 (1.1 %) hospital discharges, 4,635,517 (4.7%) emergency department discharges, and 91,861,009 (94.1 %) ambulatory visits between 2012 and 2017. The incidence of 7-day infection hospitalization varied from 37,140 (3.3%) following inpatient discharge, 50,315 (1.1%) following emergency department discharge, and 277,034 (0.3%) following ambulatory visits. The incidence of 7-day infection hospitalization was increased for inpatient discharges with high readmission risk (10.0%), emergency department discharges with increased acute or chronic severity of illness (3.5% and 4.7%, respectively), and ambulatory visits with acute infection (0.7%). The timing of 7-day infection and sepsis hospitalizations differed across settings with an early rise following ambulatory visits, a later peak following emergency department discharges, and a delayed peak following inpatient discharge. Theoretical number needed to evaluate values varied by strata, but following hospital and emergency department discharge, were as low as 15 to 25.

CONCLUSIONS

Incident 7-day infection and sepsis hospitalizations following encounters in routine healthcare settings were surprisingly common and may be amenable to clinical predictive models.