An adaptive, phase II, dose-finding clinical trial design to evaluate L-carnitine in the treatment of septic shock based on efficacy and predictive probability of subsequent phase III success

Kidney function as a key driver of the pharmacokinetic response to high-dose L-carnitine in septic shock

STUDY OBJECTIVE

Levocarnitine (L-carnitine) has shown promise as a metabolic-therapeutic for septic shock, where mortality approaches 40%. However, high-dose (≥ 6 grams) intravenous supplementation results in a broad range of serum concentrations. We sought to describe the population pharmacokinetics (PK) of high-dose L-carnitine, test various estimates of kidney function, and assess the correlation of PK parameters with pre-treatment metabolites in describing drug response for patients with septic shock.

DESIGN

Population PK analysis was done with baseline normalized concentrations using nonlinear mixed effect models in the modeling platform Monolix. Various estimates of kidney function, patient demographics, dose received, and organ dysfunction were tested as population covariates.

DATA SOURCE

We leveraged serum samples and metabolomics data from a phase II trial of L-carnitine in vasopressor-dependent septic shock. Serum was collected at baseline (T0); end-of-infusion (T12); and 24, 48, and 72 h after treatment initiation.

PATIENTS AND INTERVENTION

Patients were adaptively randomized to receive intravenous L-carnitine (6 grams, 12 grams, or 18 grams) or placebo.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

The final dataset included 542 serum samples from 130 patients randomized to L-carnitine. A two-compartment model with linear elimination and a fixed volume of distribution (17.1 liters) best described the data and served as a base structural model. Kidney function estimates as a covariate on the elimination rate constant (k) reliably improved model fit. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), based on the 2021 Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation with creatinine and cystatin C, outperformed creatinine clearance (Cockcroft-Gault) and older CKD-EPI equations that use an adjustment for self-identified race.

CONCLUSIONS

High-dose L-carnitine supplementation is well-described by a two-compartment population PK model in patients with septic shock. Kidney function estimates that leverage cystatin C provided superior model fit. Future investigations into high-dose L-carnitine supplementation should consider baseline metabolic status and dose adjustments based on renal function over a fixed or weight-based dosing paradigm.

Challenges and potential strategies utilizing external data for efficacy evaluation in small-sized clinical trials

In clinical trials for diseases with very small patient populations, trial investigators may encounter recruitment difficulties. It can be challenging to conduct clinical trials with enough power to detect a treatment effect, and randomization may not be feasible due to timeline, budget, and ethical concerns. To bring breakthrough therapies to the market quickly, it is important to come up with efficient approaches to utilizing individual patient data through improved study design and sound statistical methods. Emerging topics in this area include the use of Bayesian approaches to flexibly incorporate prior information into the current clinical trials, the use of historical controls to efficiently conduct trials that will reduce the number of subjects recruited and ease ethical considerations, and the use of innovative study designs, such as a platform design, to improve the efficiency and speed of the medical therapy development progress. In this paper, we describe three scenarios which highlight some of the challenges encountered in small-sized clinical trial development and provide potential statistical approaches to overcome the aforementioned challenges.

L-carnitine: Searching for New Therapeutic Strategy for Sepsis Management

In this review, we discussed the biological targets of carnitine, its effects on immune function, and how L-carnitine supplementation may help critically ill patients. L-carnitine is a potent antioxidant. L-carnitine depletion has been observed in prolonged intensive care unit (ICU) stays, while L-carnitine supplementation has beneficial effects in health promotion and regulation of immunity. It is essential for the uptake of fatty acids into mitochondria. By inhibiting the ubiquitin-proteasome system, down-regulation of apelin receptor in cardiac tissue, and reducing β-oxidation of fatty acid, carnitine may decrease vasopressor requirement in septic shock and improve clinical outcomes of this group of patients. We also have an overview of animal and clinical studies that have been recruited for evaluating the beneficial effects of L-carnitine in the management of sepsis/ septic shock. Additional clinical data are required to evaluate the optimal daily dose and duration of L-carnitine supplementation.

The design of a Bayesian adaptive clinical trial of tranexamic acid in severely injured children

BACKGROUND

Trauma is the leading cause of death and disability in children in the USA. Tranexamic acid (TXA) reduces the blood transfusion requirements in adults and children during surgery. Several studies have evaluated TXA in adults with hemorrhagic trauma, but no randomized controlled trials have occurred in children with trauma. We propose a Bayesian adaptive clinical trial to investigate TXA in children with brain and/or torso hemorrhagic trauma.

METHODS/DESIGN

We designed a double-blind, Bayesian adaptive clinical trial that will enroll up to 2000 patients. We extend the traditional Emax dose-response model to incorporate a hierarchical structure so multiple doses of TXA can be evaluated in different injury populations (isolated head injury, isolated torso injury, or both head and torso injury). Up to 3 doses of TXA (15 mg/kg, 30 mg/kg, and 45 mg/kg bolus doses) will be compared to placebo. Equal allocation between placebo, 15 mg/kg, and 30 mg/kg will be used for an initial period within each injury group. Depending on the dose-response curve, the 45 mg/kg arm may open in an injury group if there is a trend towards increasing efficacy based on the observed relationship using the data from the lower doses. Response-adaptive randomization allows each injury group to differ in allocation proportions of TXA so an optimal dose can be identified for each injury group. Frequent interim stopping periods are included to evaluate efficacy and futility. The statistical design is evaluated through extensive simulations to determine the operating characteristics in several plausible scenarios. This trial achieves adequate power in each injury group.

DISCUSSION

This trial design evaluating TXA in pediatric hemorrhagic trauma allows for three separate injury populations to be analyzed and compared within a single study framework. Individual conclusions regarding optimal dosing of TXA can be made within each injury group. Identifying the optimal dose of TXA, if any, for various injury types in childhood may reduce death and disability.

Adaptive randomised controlled non-inferiority multicentre trial (the Ketodex Trial) on intranasal dexmedetomidine plus ketamine for procedural sedation in children: study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Up to 40% of orthopaedic injuries in children require a closed reduction, almost always necessitating procedural sedation. Intravenous ketamine is the most commonly used sedative agent. However, intravenous insertion is painful and can be technically difficult in children. We hypothesise that a combination of intranasal dexmedetomidine plus intranasal ketamine (Ketodex) will be non-inferior to intravenous ketamine for effective sedation in children undergoing a closed reduction.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is a six-centre, four-arm, adaptive, randomised, blinded, controlled, non-inferiority trial. We will include children 4-17 years with a simple upper limb fracture or dislocation that requires sedation for a closed reduction. Participants will be randomised to receive either intranasal Ketodex (one of three dexmedetomidine and ketamine combinations) or intravenous ketamine. The primary outcome is adequate sedation as measured using the Paediatric Sedation State Scale. Secondary outcomes include length of stay, time to wakening and adverse effects. The results of both per protocol and intention-to-treat analyses will be reported for the primary outcome. All inferential analyses will be undertaken using a response-adaptive Bayesian design. Logistic regression will be used to model the dose-response relationship for the combinations of intranasal Ketodex. Using the Average Length Criterion for Bayesian sample size estimation, a survey-informed non-inferiority margin of 17.8% and priors from historical data, a sample size of 410 participants will be required. Simulations estimate a type II error rate of 0.08 and a type I error rate of 0.047.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval was obtained from Clinical Trials Ontario for London Health Sciences Centre and McMaster Research Ethics Board. Other sites have yet to receive approval from their institutions. Informed consent will be obtained from guardians of all participants in addition to assent from participants. Study data will be submitted for publication regardless of results.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT0419525.

A Bayesian response-adaptive dose-finding and comparative effectiveness trial

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Combinations of treatments that have already received regulatory approval can offer additional benefit over Each of the treatments individually. However, trials of these combinations are lower priority than those that develop novel therapies, which can restrict funding, timelines and patient availability. This article develops a novel trial design to facilitate the evaluation of New combination therapies. This trial design combines elements of phase II and phase III trials to reduce the burden of evaluating combination therapies, while also maintaining a feasible sample size. This design was developed for a randomised trial that compares the properties of three combination doses of ketamine and dexmedetomidine, given intranasally, to ketamine delivered intravenously for children undergoing a closed reduction for a fracture or dislocation.

METHODS

This trial design uses response-adaptive randomisation to evaluate different dose combinations and increase the information collected for successful novel drug combinations. The design then uses Bayesian dose-response modelling to undertake a comparative effectiveness analysis for the most successful dose combination against a relevant comparator. We used simulation methods determine the thresholds for adapting the trial and making conclusions. We also used simulations to evaluate the probability of selecting the dose combination with the highest true effectiveness the operating characteristics of the design and its Bayesian predictive power.

RESULTS

With 410 participants, five interim updates of the randomisation ratio and a probability of effectiveness of 0.93, 0.88 and 0.83 for the three dose combinations, we have an 83% chance of randomising the largest number of patients to the drug with the highest probability of effectiveness. Based on this adaptive randomisation procedure, the comparative effectiveness analysis has a type I error of less than 5% and a 93% chance of correcting concluding non-inferiority, when the probability of effectiveness for the optimal combination therapy is 0.9. In this case, the trial has a greater than 77% chance of meeting its dual aims of dose-finding and comparative effectiveness. Finally, the Bayesian predictive power of the trial is over 90%.

CONCLUSIONS

By simultaneously determining the optimal dose and collecting data on the relative effectiveness of an intervention, we can minimise administrative burden and recruitment time for a trial. This will minimise the time required to get effective, safe combination therapies to patients quickly. The proposed trial has high potential to meet the dual study objectives within a feasible overall sample size.

Comparison of methods for control allocation in multiple arm studies using response adaptive randomization

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Response adaptive randomization has many polarizing properties in two-arm settings comparing control to a single treatment. The generalization of these features to the multiple arm setting has been less explored, and existing comparisons in the literature reach disparate conclusions. We investigate several generalizations of two-arm response adaptive randomization methods relating to control allocation in multiple arm trials, exploring how critiques of response adaptive randomization generalize to the multiple arm setting.

METHODS

We perform a simulation study to investigate multiple control allocation schemes within response adaptive randomization, comparing the designs on metrics such as power, arm selection, mean square error, and the treatment of patients within the trial.

RESULTS

The results indicate that the generalization of two-arm response adaptive randomization concerns is variable and depends on the form of control allocation employed. The concerns are amplified when control allocation may be reduced over the course of the trial but are mitigated in the methods considered when control allocation is maintained or increased during the trial. In our chosen example, we find minimal advantage to increasing, as opposed to maintaining, control allocation; however, this result reflects an extremely limited exploration of methods for increasing control allocation.

CONCLUSION

Selection of control allocation in multiple arm response adaptive randomization has a large effect on the performance of the design. Some disparate comparisons of response adaptive randomization to alternative paradigms may be partially explained by these results. In future comparisons, control allocation for multiple arm response adaptive randomization should be chosen to keep in mind the appropriate match between control allocation in response adaptive randomization and the metric or metrics of interest.

Septic Shock Nonsurvivors Have Persistently Elevated Acylcarnitines Following Carnitine Supplementation

INTRODUCTION

Sepsis-induced metabolic disturbances include hyperlactatemia, disruption of glycolysis, protein catabolism, and altered fatty acid metabolism. It may also lower serum L-carnitine that supports the use of L-carnitine supplementation as a treatment to ameliorate several of these metabolic consequences.

METHODS

To further understand the association between L-carnitine-induced changes in serum acylcarnitines, fatty acid metabolism and survival, serum samples from (T0), 12 hfollowing completion (T24) of L-carnitine (n = 16) or placebo (n = 15) administration, and 48 h (T48) after enrollment from patients with septic shock enrolled in a randomized control trial were assayed for acylcarnitines, free fatty acids, and insulin. Data were analyzed comparing 1-year survivors and nonsurvivors within treatment groups.

RESULTS

Mortality was 8 of 16 (50%) and 12 of 15 (80%) at 1 year for L-carnitine and placebo-treated patients, respectively. Free carnitine, C2, C3, and C8 acylcarnitines were higher among nonsurvivors at enrollment. L-Carnitine treatment increased levels of all measured acylcarnitines; an effect that was sustained for at least 36 h following completion of the infusion and was more prominent among nonsurvivors. Several fatty acids followed a similar, though less consistent pattern. Glucose, lactate, and insulin levels did not differ based on survival or treatment arm.

CONCLUSIONS

In human patients with septic shock, L-Carnitine supplementation increases a broad range of acylcarnitine concentrations that persist after cessation of infusion, demonstrating both immediate and sustained effects on the serum metabolome. Nonsurvivors demonstrate a distinct metabolic response to L-carnitine compared with survivors, which may indicate preexisting or more profound metabolic derangement that constrains any beneficial response to treatment.

Effect of Levocarnitine vs Placebo as an Adjunctive Treatment for Septic Shock: The Rapid Administration of Carnitine in Sepsis (RACE) Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE

Sepsis induces profound metabolic derangements, while exogenous levocarnitine mitigates metabolic dysfunction by enhancing glucose and lactate oxidation and increasing fatty acid shuttling. Previous trials in sepsis suggest beneficial effects of levocarnitine on patient-centered outcomes.

OBJECTIVES

To test the hypothesis that levocarnitine reduces cumulative organ failure in patients with septic shock at 48 hours and, if present, to estimate the probability that the most efficacious dose will decrease 28-day mortality in a pivotal phase 3 clinical trial.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Multicenter adaptive, randomized, blinded, dose-finding, phase 2 clinical trial (Rapid Administration of Carnitine in Sepsis [RACE]). The setting was 16 urban US medical centers. Participants were patients aged 18 years or older admitted from March 5, 2013, to February 5, 2018, with septic shock and moderate organ dysfunction.

INTERVENTIONS

Within 24 hours of identification, patients were assigned to 1 of the following 4 treatments: low (6 g), medium (12 g), or high (18 g) doses of levocarnitine or an equivalent volume of saline placebo administered as a 12-hour infusion.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome required, first, a greater than 90% posterior probability that the most promising levocarnitine dose decreases the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score at 48 hours and, second (given having met the first condition), at least a 30% predictive probability of success in reducing 28-day mortality in a subsequent traditional superiority trial to test efficacy.

RESULTS

Of the 250 enrolled participants (mean [SD] age, 61.7 [14.8] years; 56.8% male), 35, 34, and 106 patients were adaptively randomized to the low, medium, and high levocarnitine doses, respectively, while 75 patients were randomized to placebo. In the intent-to-treat analysis, the fitted mean (SD) changes in the SOFA score for the low, medium, and high levocarnitine groups were -1.27 (0.49), -1.66 (0.38), and -1.97 (0.32), respectively, vs -1.63 (0.35) in the placebo group. The posterior probability that the 18-g dose is superior to placebo was 0.78, which did not meet the a priori threshold of 0.90. Mortality at 28 days was 45.9% (34 of 74) in the placebo group compared with 43.3% (45 of 104) for the most promising levocarnitine dose (18 g). Similar findings were noted in the per-protocol analysis.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this dose-finding, phase 2 adaptive randomized trial, the most efficacious dose of levocarnitine (18 g) did not meaningfully reduce cumulative organ failure at 48 hours.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01665092.

A review of micronutrients in sepsis: the role of thiamine, l-carnitine, vitamin C, selenium and vitamin D

Sepsis is defined as the dysregulated host response to an infection resulting in life-threatening organ dysfunction. The metabolic demand from inefficiencies in anaerobic metabolism, mitochondrial and cellular dysfunction, increased cellular turnover, and free-radical damage result in the increased focus of micronutrients in sepsis as they play a pivotal role in these processes. In the present review, we will evaluate the potential role of micronutrients in sepsis, specifically, thiamine, l-carnitine, vitamin C, Se and vitamin D. Each micronutrient will be reviewed in a similar fashion, discussing its major role in normal physiology, suspected role in sepsis, use as a biomarker, discussion of the major basic science and human studies, and conclusion statement. Based on the current available data, we conclude that thiamine may be considered in all septic patients at risk for thiamine deficiency and l-carnitine and vitamin C to those in septic shock. Clinical trials are currently underway which may provide greater insight into the role of micronutrients in sepsis and validate standard utilisation.

Perspective on optimizing clinical trials in critical care: how to puzzle out recurrent failures

Background

Critical care is a complex field of medicine, especially because of its diversity and unpredictability. Mortality rates of the diseases are usually high and patients are critically ill, admitted in emergency, and often have several overlapping diseases. This makes research in critical care also complex because of patients’ conditions and because of the numerous ethical and regulatory requirements and increasing global competition. Many clinical trials in critical care have thus failed and almost no drug has yet been developed to treat intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Learning from the failures, clinical trials must now be optimized.

Main body

Several aspects can be improved, beginning with the design of studies that should take into account patients’ diversity in the ICU. At the site level, selection should reflect more accurately the potential of recruitment. Management of all players that can be involved in the research at a site level should be a priority. Moreover, training should be offered to all staff members, including the youngest. National and international networks are also part of the future as they create a collective synergy potentially improving the efficacy of sites. Finally, computerization is another area that must be further developed with the appropriate tools.

Conclusion

Clinical research in the ICU is thus a discipline in its own right that still requires tailored approaches. Changes have to be initiated by the investigators themselves as they know all the specificities of the field.

Response-adaptive clinical trials: case studies in the medical literature

The past 15 years has seen many pharmaceutical sponsors consider and implement adaptive designs (AD) across all phases of drug development. Given their arrival at the turn of the millennium, we might think that they are a recent invention. That is not the case. The earliest idea of an AD predates Bradford Hill's MRC tuberculosis study, appearing in Biometrika in 1933. In this paper, we trace the development of response-ADs, designs in which the allocation to intervention arms depends on the responses of subjects already treated. We describe some statistical details underlying the designs, but our main focus is to describe and comment on ADs from the medical research literature. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Trials in adult critical care that show increased mortality of the new intervention: Inevitable or preventable mishaps?

Several promising therapies assessed in the adult critically ill in large, multicenter randomized controlled trials (RCTs) were associated with significantly increased mortality in the intervention arms. Our hypothesis was that there would be wide ranges in sponsorship (industry or not), type(s) of intervention(s), use of DSMBs, presence of interim analyses and early stopping rules, absolute risk increase (ARI), and whether or not adequate prior proof-of-principle Phase II studies were done of RCTs that found increased mortality rates of the intervention compared to control groups. We reviewed RCTs that showed a statistically significant increased mortality rate in the intervention compared to control group(s). We recorded source of sponsorship, sample sizes, types of interventions, mortality rates, ARI (as well as odds ratios, relative risks and number needed to harm), whether there were pre-specified interim analyses and early stopping rules, and whether or not there were prior proof-of-principle (also known as Phase II) RCTs. Ten RCTs (four industry sponsored) of many interventions (high oxygen delivery, diaspirin cross-linked hemoglobin, growth hormone, methylprednisolone, hetastarch, high-frequency oscillation ventilation, intensive insulin, NOS inhibition, and beta-2 adrenergic agonist, TNF-α receptor) included 19,126 patients and were associated with wide ranges of intervention versus control group mortality rates (25.7–59 %, mean 29.9 vs 17–49 %, mean 25 %, respectively) yielding ARIs of 2.6–29 % (mean 5 %). All but two RCTs had pre-specified interim analyses, and seven RCTs were stopped early. All RCTs were preceded by published proof-of-principle RCT(s), two by the same group. Seven interventions (except diaspirin cross-linked hemoglobin and the NOS inhibitor) were available for use clinically at the time of the pivotal RCT. Common, clinically available interventions used in the critically ill were associated with increased mortality in large, pivotal RCTs even though safety was often addressed by interim analyses and early stopping rules.

Experimental treatments for mitochondrial dysfunction in sepsis: A narrative review

Sepsis is a systemic inflammatory response to infection. Sepsis, which can lead to severe sepsis, septic shock, and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome, is an important cause of mortality. Pathogenesis is extremely complex. In recent years, cell hypoxia caused by mitochondrial dysfunction has become a hot research field. Sepsis damages the structure and function of mitochondria, conversely, mitochondrial dysfunction aggravated sepsis. The treatment of sepsis lacks effective specific drugs. The aim of this paper is to undertake a narrative review of the current experimental treatment for mitochondrial dysfunction in sepsis. The search was conducted in PubMed databases and Web of Science databases from 1950 to January 2014. A total of 1,090 references were retrieved by the search, of which 121 researches met all the inclusion criteria were included. Articles on the relationship between sepsis and mitochondria, and drugs used for mitochondrial dysfunction in sepsis were reviewed retrospectively. The drugs were divided into four categories: (1) Drug related to mitochondrial matrix and respiratory chain, (2) drugs of mitochondrial antioxidant and free radical scavengers, (3) drugs related to mitochondrial membrane stability, (4) hormone therapy for septic mitochondria. In animal experiments, many drugs show good results. However, clinical research lacks. In future studies, the urgent need is to develop promising drugs in clinical trials.

Randomized controlled trial of inhaled nitric oxide for the treatment of microcirculatory dysfunction in patients with sepsis*

OBJECTIVES

Sepsis treatment guidelines recommend macrocirculatory hemodynamic optimization; however, microcirculatory dysfunction is integral to sepsis pathogenesis. We aimed to test the hypothesis that following macrocirculatory optimization, inhaled nitric oxide would improve microcirculation in patients with sepsis and that improved microcirculation would improve lactate clearance and multiple organ dysfunction.

DESIGN

Randomized, sham-controlled clinical trial.

SETTING

Single urban academic medical center.

PATIENTS

Adult patients with severe sepsis and systolic blood pressure less than 90 mm Hg despite intravascular volume expansion and/or serum lactate greater than or equal to 4.0 mmol/L.

INTERVENTIONS

After achievement of macrocirculatory resuscitation goals, we randomized patients to 6 hours of inhaled nitric oxide (40 ppm) or sham inhaled nitric oxide administration. We administered study drug via a specialized delivery device that concealed treatment allocation so that investigators and clinical staff remained blinded.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

We performed sidestream dark-field videomicroscopy of the sublingual microcirculation prior to and 2 hours after study drug initiation. The primary outcome measure was the change in microcirculatory flow index. Secondary outcomes were lactate clearance and change in Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score. We enrolled 50 patients (28 of 50 [56%] requiring vasopressor agents; 15 of 50 [30%] died). Although inhaled nitric oxide significantly raised plasma nitrite levels, it did not improve microcirculatory flow, lactate clearance, or organ dysfunction. In contrast to previous studies conducted during the earliest phase of resuscitation, we found no association between changes in microcirculatory flow and lactate clearance or organ dysfunction.

CONCLUSIONS

Following macrocirculatory optimization, inhaled nitric oxide at 40 ppm did not augment microcirculatory perfusion in patients with sepsis. Further, we found no association between microcirculatory perfusion and multiple organ dysfunction after initial resuscitation.

A surrogate-primary replacement algorithm for response-adaptive randomization in stroke clinical trials

Response-adaptive randomization (RAR) offers clinical investigators benefit by modifying the treatment allocation probabilities to optimize the ethical, operational, or statistical performance of the trial. Delayed primary outcomes and their effect on RAR have been studied in the literature; however, the incorporation of surrogate outcomes has not been fully addressed. We explore the benefits and limitations of surrogate outcome utilization in RAR in the context of acute stroke clinical trials. We propose a novel surrogate-primary (S-P) replacement algorithm where a patient's surrogate outcome is used in the RAR algorithm only until their primary outcome becomes available to replace it. Computer simulations investigate the effect of both the delay in obtaining the primary outcome and the underlying surrogate and primary outcome distributional discrepancies on complete randomization, standard RAR and the S-P replacement algorithm methods. Results show that when the primary outcome is delayed, the S-P replacement algorithm reduces the variability of the treatment allocation probabilities and achieves stabilization sooner. Additionally, the S-P replacement algorithm benefit proved to be robust in that it preserved power and reduced the expected number of failures across a variety of scenarios.

Clinical trial design in prevention and treatment of acute respiratory distress syndrome

Our ability to define appropriate molecular targets for preclinical development and develop better methods needs to be improved, to determine the clinical value of novel acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) agents. Clinical trials must have realistic sample sizes and meaningful end points and use the available observation and meta-analytical data to inform design. Biomarker-driven studies or defined ARDS subsets should be considered to categorize specific at-risk populations most likely to benefit from a new treatment. Innovations in clinical trial design should be pursued to improve the outlook for future interventional trials in ARDS.

Managing competing demands in the implementation of response-adaptive randomization in a large multicenter phase III acute stroke trial

It is well known that competing demands exist between the control of important covariate imbalance and protection of treatment allocation randomness in confirmative clinical trials. When implementing a response-adaptive randomization algorithm in confirmative clinical trials designed under a frequentist framework, additional competing demands emerge between the shift of the treatment allocation ratio and the preservation of the power. Based on a large multicenter phase III stroke trial, we present a patient randomization scheme that manages these competing demands by applying a newly developed minimal sufficient balancing design for baseline covariates and a cap on the treatment allocation ratio shift in order to protect the allocation randomness and the power. Statistical properties of this randomization plan are studied by computer simulation. Trial operation characteristics, such as patient enrollment rate and primary outcome response delay, are also incorporated into the randomization plan.

Outcomes and statistical power in adult critical care randomized trials

RATIONALE

Intensive care unit (ICU)-based randomized clinical trials (RCTs) among adult critically ill patients commonly fail to detect treatment benefits.

OBJECTIVES

Appraise the rates of success, outcomes used, statistical power, and design characteristics of published trials.

METHODS

One hundred forty-six ICU-based RCTs of diagnostic, therapeutic, or process/systems interventions published from January 2007 to May 2013 in 16 high-impact general or critical care journals were studied.

MEASUREMENT AND MAIN RESULTS

Of 146 RCTs, 54 (37%) were positive (i.e., the a priori hypothesis was found to be statistically significant). The most common primary outcomes were mortality (n = 40 trials), infection-related outcomes (n = 33), and ventilation-related outcomes (n = 30), with positive results found in 10, 58, and 43%, respectively. Statistical power was discussed in 135 RCTs (92%); 92 cited a rationale for their power parameters. Twenty trials failed to achieve at least 95% of their reported target sample size, including 11 that were stopped early due to insufficient accrual/logistical issues. Of 34 superiority RCTs comparing mortality between treatment arms, 13 (38%) accrued a sample size large enough to find an absolute mortality reduction of 10% or less. In 22 of these trials the observed control-arm mortality rate differed from the predicted rate by at least 7.5%.

CONCLUSIONS

ICU-based RCTs are commonly negative and powered to identify what appear to be unrealistic treatment effects, particularly when using mortality as the primary outcome. Additional concerns include a lack of standardized methods for assessing common outcomes, unclear justifications for statistical power calculations, insufficient patient accrual, and incorrect predictions of baseline event rates.

The next generation of sepsis clinical trial designs: what is next after the demise of recombinant human activated protein C?*

OBJECTIVE

The developmental pipeline for novel therapeutics to treat sepsis has diminished to a trickle compared to previous years of sepsis research. While enormous strides have been made in understanding the basic molecular mechanisms that underlie the pathophysiology of sepsis, a long list of novel agents have now been tested in clinical trials without a single immunomodulating therapy showing consistent benefit. The only antisepsis agent to successfully complete a phase III clinical trial was human recumbent activated protein C. This drug was taken off the market after a follow-up placebo-controlled trial (human recombinant activated Protein C Worldwide Evaluation of Severe Sepsis and septic Shock [PROWESS SHOCK]) failed to replicate the favorable results of the initial registration trial performed ten years earlier. We must critically reevaluate our basic approach to the preclinical and clinical evaluation of new sepsis therapies.

DATA SOURCES

We selected the major clinical studies that investigated interventional trials with novel therapies to treat sepsis over the last 30 years.

STUDY SELECTION

Phase II and phase III trials investigating new treatments for sepsis and editorials and critiques of these studies.

DATA EXTRACTION

Selected manuscripts and clinical study reports were analyzed from sepsis trials. Specific shortcomings and potential pit falls in preclinical evaluation and clinical study design and analysis were reviewed and synthesized.

DATA SYNTHESIS

After review and discussion, a series of 12 recommendations were generated with suggestions to guide future studies with new treatments for sepsis.

CONCLUSIONS

We need to improve our ability to define appropriate molecular targets for preclinical development and develop better methods to determine the clinical value of novel sepsis agents. Clinical trials must have realistic sample sizes and meaningful endpoints. Biomarker-driven studies should be considered to categorize specific "at risk" populations most likely to benefit from a new treatment. Innovations in clinical trial design such as parallel crossover design, alternative endpoints, or adaptive trials should be pursued to improve the outlook for future interventional trials in sepsis.

Update in sepsis 2012

Pivotal sepsis clinical trials and preclinical research in 2012 are reviewed. For interventions ranging from synthetic complex starch solutions to recombinant human activated protein C, large multicenter randomized controlled trials generally failed to show benefit and some even demonstrated harm in the intervention group. In smaller innovative clinical trials simple interventions such as external cooling to control fever and biomarker-guided weaning from mechanical ventilation found potential benefit. Biomarkers for sepsis, including multimarker panels, are increasingly showing promise for clinical application. Breakthroughs in basic research in sepsis continue to highlight the complexity of the systemic inflammatory response and its consequences. A series of publications in AJRCCM follow the septic inflammatory response starting from intracellular structures and organelles to mitochondria and the cytoskeleton. Additional publications explore the key leukocyte subsets acting in sepsis, highlighting the underappreciated role of helper T-cell type 2-related pathways. Cellular remnants in the form of microparticles contribute to coagulopathy and further organ dysfunction. As a consequence, we suggest that sepsis may be the paradigm disease or condition requiring personalized care first to discover and validate new therapies and second to increase survival.