Reproducibility of self-reported melanoma risk factors in a large cohort study of Norwegian women

Nevus Count, Pigmentary Characteristics, and Melanoma-specific Mortality among Norwegian Women with Melanoma >1.0 mm Thick

Little is known about if and how nevi and pigmentation are associated with melanoma-specific mortality. However, increased melanoma awareness in people with lighter pigmentation and many nevi may result in earlier diagnosis of thinner less-lethal tumors. The aim of this study was to investigate associations between nevus count (asymmetrical > 5 mm and small symmetrical), pigmentary characteristics (hair colour, eye colour, skin colour, freckling, pigmentary score), and melanoma-specific mortality in subjects with melanomas > 1 mm. Data from the Norwegian Women and Cancer cohort, established in 1991, with complete follow-up of melanoma patients until 2018 through the Cancer Registry of Norway, were used to estimate hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals for the associations between nevus count, pigmentary characteristics, and melanoma-specific mortality, stratified by tumor thickness using Cox regression. Estimated hazard ratios consistently indicated a higher risk of melanoma death for those with darker vs lighter pigmentary characteristics in patients with tumors > 1.0-2.0 mm and > 2.0 mm thick (e.g. pigmentary score hazard ratio 1.25, 95% confidence interval (0.74-2.13)). Among women with melanomas > 1.0 mm thick, lighter pigmentation and asymmetrical nevi may be associated with lower melanoma-specific mortality, suggesting that factors that increase the risk of melanoma may also be associated with decreased risk of death from melanoma.

Validity of a Self-Assessment Skin Tone Palette Compared to a Colorimeter for Characterizing Skin Color for Skin Cancer Research

Our goal is to determine whether our objective 9-point Self-Assessment Skin Tone Palette (SASTP) is correlated with a colorimeter’s assessment of a melanin index, so that Hispanic and Black people can be included in skin cancer research where scales were developed for White populations. Subjects were asked to self-identify their skin tones using the SASTP. This study assessed the criterion validity of the SASTP by measuring a range of skin colors compared to a melanin index reported from a colorimeter for the upper-inner arm (non-sun-exposed skin color), and the outer forearm (sun-exposed). Among 188 non-artificial tanners, 50% were White, 30% were Hispanic or White-Hispanic, and 20% were other racial categories. Meanwhile, 70% were female (30% male) and 81% were age 18–29 (19% age 30+). The mean melanin of the upper-inner arm decreased with lighter skin color and stronger tendency to burn. The SASTP in comparison to melanin index values was correlated for both the upper-inner arm (r = 0.81, p < 0.001) and the outer forearm (r = 0.77, p < 0.001). The SASTP provides a 9-point scale that can be considered as an alternative, less expensive method that is comparable to the objective colorimeter melanin index, which may be useful in studies on skin cancer among White, non-White, and Hispanic peoples.

Life-Course Trajectories of Physical Activity and Melanoma Risk in a Large Cohort of Norwegian Women

Purpose

Physical activity (PA) is a cornerstone in disease prevention and varies throughout life. A pooled analysis of cohort studies and a meta-analysis of cohort studies found positive associations between PA and melanoma risk. However, previous studies focused on PA at specific ages and often lacked information on ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure. Using the population-based Norwegian Women and Cancer (NOWAC) cohort, including information on PA and UVR exposure, we estimated life-course PA trajectories from adolescence to adulthood and their associations with melanoma.

Methods

Total PA across different domains (recreation, occupation, transport, household) was reported for ages 14 and 30 years, and when responding to the questionnaire (31-76 years) using a 10-point scale, validated to rank PA levels in Norwegian females. We estimated life-course PA trajectories using a latent class mixed model in 152,248 women divided into three subcohorts depending on age at questionnaire completion: 31-39 (n = 27,098), 40-49 (n = 52,515) and ≥50 years (n = 72,635). The unique 11-digit identity number of Norwegian citizens was used to link NOWAC to the Cancer Registry of Norway for information on cancer diagnoses, emigration and death. Associations between PA trajectories and melanoma risk were estimated in each subcohort using multivariable Cox regression.

Results

Five classes of individual life-course PA trajectories were identified in subcohort 31-39 years (low, moderate, high, decreasing, increasing PA) and four in subcohorts 40-49 and ≥50 years (low, moderate, high, decreasing PA). No significant association was found between life-course PA trajectories and melanoma risk in any subcohort. Hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for the high versus moderate trajectory were 0.92 (0.66-1.29), 1.15 (0.97-1.37) and 0.90 (0.78-1.05) for subcohorts 31-39, 40-49 and ≥50 years, respectively.

Conclusion

Our results do not support a positive association between PA and melanoma risk found in previous studies, which is important for public health guidelines promoting regular PA.

Lifetime Sunburn Trajectories and Associated Risks of Cutaneous Melanoma and Squamous Cell Carcinoma Among a Cohort of Norwegian Women

Importance

To our knowledge, no study has prospectively investigated sunburn patterns over age periods from childhood to adulthood and their associations with skin cancer risk.

Objective

To identify lifetime trajectories of sunburns and compare the association between these trajectories and subsequent risk of cutaneous melanoma and squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC).

Design, Setting, and Participants

This population-based cohort study included participants from the Norwegian Women and Cancer Study, established in 1991, with follow-up through 2018. Baseline questionnaires were issued from 1991 to 2007, with follow-up questionnaires every 5 to 7 years. Data analysis was performed from March 16, 2021, to December 4, 2021.

Exposures

Participants reported pigmentation factors, sunbathing vacations, and indoor tanning. Annual frequencies of sunburns were reported for childhood, adolescence, and adulthood.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Information on cancer diagnoses, emigration, and death were obtained through linkage to the Cancer Registry of Norway using the unique personal identification number of Norwegian citizens.

Results

Of the 172 472 women (age range, 31-70 years) who returned questionnaires, 169 768 received questions about sunburns at study inclusion. Five classes (stable low, low-moderate-low, low to high, high to low, and stable high) of individual lifetime sunburn trajectories with similar shapes were estimated in 3 samples up to 39 years (n = 159 773), up to 49 years (n = 153 297), and up to 59 years (n = 119 170). Mean follow-up ranged from 14.3 to 19.5 years in the 3 samples, during which 1252 to 1774 women were diagnosed with incident primary melanoma and 739 to 871 women with incident primary cSCC. With hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs estimated using a Cox proportional hazards model, the stable high and high to low trajectories showed statistically significant increased melanoma and cSCC risks compared with the stable low trajectory across all samples (≤39 years for stable high and high to low trajectories: melanoma: HR, 1.50 [95% CI, 1.28-1.75] and HR, 1.44 [95% CI, 1.20-1.73]; cSCC: HR, 1.51 [95% CI, 1.22-1.87] and HR, 1.47 [95% CI, 1.14-1.91]). Other trajectories showed increased risk, though generally weaker and mainly estimates that were not statistically significant. There was no statistically significant heterogeneity between melanoma and cSCC estimates.

Conclusion and Relevance

This cohort study showed that high sunburn frequency throughout life was associated with increased melanoma and cSCC risk. Furthermore, sunburns in childhood are especially important for subsequent risk of these skin cancers. Avoiding sunburns throughout life, in particular in childhood, is therefore crucial.

Pre-diagnostic DNA methylation in blood leucocytes in cutaneous melanoma; a nested case-control study within the Norwegian Women and Cancer cohort

The prognosis of cutaneous melanoma depends on early detection, and good biomarkers for melanoma risk may provide a valuable tool to detect melanoma development at a pre-clinical stage. By studying the epigenetic profile in pre-diagnostic blood samples of melanoma cases and cancer free controls, we aimed to identify DNA methylation sites conferring melanoma risk. DNA methylation was measured at 775,528 CpG sites using the Illumina EPIC array in whole blood in incident melanoma cases (n = 183) and matched cancer-free controls (n = 183) in the Norwegian Women and Cancer cohort. Phenotypic information and ultraviolet radiation exposure were obtained from questionnaires. Epigenome wide association (EWAS) was analyzed in future melanoma cases and controls with conditional logistic regression, with correction for multiple testing using the false discovery rate (FDR). We extended the analysis by including a public data set on melanoma (GSE120878), and combining these different data sets using a version of covariate modulated FDR (AdaPT). The analysis on future melanoma cases and controls did not identify any genome wide significant CpG sites (0.85 ≤ padj ≤ 0.99). In the restricted AdaPT analysis, 7 CpG sites were suggestive at the FDR level of 0.15. These CpG sites may potentially be used as pre-diagnostic biomarkers of melanoma risk.

Using the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) to Evaluate Melanoma Prediction Studies

Simple Summary

The rising incidence of cutaneous melanoma over recent decades, combined with a general interest in cancer risk prediction, has led to a high number of published melanoma risk prediction models. The aim of our work was to assess the validity of these models in order to discuss the current state of knowledge about how to predict incident cutaneous melanoma. To assess the risk of bias, we used a standardized procedure based on PROBAST (Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool). Only one of the 42 studies identified was rated as having a low risk of bias. However, it was encouraging to observe a recent reduction of problematic statistical methods used in the analyses. Nevertheless, the evidence base of high-quality studies that can be used to draw conclusions on the prediction of incident cutaneous melanoma is currently much weaker than the high number of studies on this topic would suggest.

Abstract

Rising incidences of cutaneous melanoma have fueled the development of statistical models that predict individual melanoma risk. Our aim was to assess the validity of published prediction models for incident cutaneous melanoma using a standardized procedure based on PROBAST (Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool). We included studies that were identified by a recent systematic review and updated the literature search to ensure that our PROBAST rating included all relevant studies. Six reviewers assessed the risk of bias (ROB) for each study using the published “PROBAST Assessment Form” that consists of four domains and an overall ROB rating. We further examined a temporal effect regarding changes in overall and domain-specific ROB rating distributions. Altogether, 42 studies were assessed, of which the vast majority (n = 34; 81%) was rated as having high ROB. Only one study was judged as having low ROB. The main reasons for high ROB ratings were the use of hospital controls in case-control studies and the omission of any validation of prediction models. However, our temporal analysis results showed a significant reduction in the number of studies with high ROB for the domain “analysis”. Nevertheless, the evidence base of high-quality studies that can be used to draw conclusions on the prediction of incident cutaneous melanoma is currently much weaker than the high number of studies on this topic would suggest.

Sunscreens With High Versus Low Sun Protection Factor and Cutaneous Squamous Cell Carcinoma Risk: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Evidence on sunscreen use and cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) risk is limited. Most studies have not taken sun protection factor (SPF) into consideration and used nonusers of sunscreen as the reference group. Nonusers are likely a priori at lower cSCC risk than users. No study has investigated the effect of high- versus low-SPF sunscreens on cSCC, appropriately adjusting for time-varying confounding. Using data from the Norwegian Women and Cancer Study (1991–2016), we investigated whether use of SPF ≥15 versus SPF <15 sunscreens reduces cSCC risk. We used a marginal structural Cox proportional hazards model with inverse probability of treatment and censoring weights to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). During follow-up of 148,781 women (mean follow-up, 14.3 years), 653 women were diagnosed with cSCC. The effect on cSCC risk of sunscreens with SPF ≥15 versus SPF <15 was close to the null when used at any latitudes (HR = 1.02, 95% CI: 0.82, 1.27) and when used in lower-latitude settings (HR = 1.05, 95% CI: 0.84, 1.32). In conclusion, we found no indication that sunscreens with SPF ≥15 reduced Norwegian women’s cSCC risk more than sunscreens with SPF <15, suggesting that either there is no difference in their effects long-term or the difference is diluted by incorrect application.

Physical activity and cutaneous melanoma risk: A Norwegian population-based cohort study

Physical activity (PA) is an important factor in cancer prevention, but positive association between PA and risk of cutaneous melanoma found in recent studies may complicate this strategy. Ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure during outdoor PA is a plausible explanation for a positive association. We investigated the associations between PA, UVR and melanoma risk in the Norwegian Women and Cancer cohort. Overall PA was reported by 151,710 women, aged 30-75 at inclusion, using a validated 10-point-scale at enrolment and during follow-up, together with recent numbers of sunburns, indoor tanning sessions and weeks on sunbathing vacations. Seasonal outdoor walking and seasonal PAs were recorded in subsamples (n = 102,671 and n = 29,077, respectively). Logistic and Cox regression were used. Mean follow-up was 18.5 years, and 1565 invasive incident melanoma cases were diagnosed. Overall PA was inversely associated with sunburns, while positively associated with sunbathing vacations and indoor tanning. Overall PA was not associated with melanoma risk in all body sites combined (ptrend = 0.61), but reduced risk was found in upper limb melanomas (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.70, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.51-0.96; high versus low PA). Non-significant reduced risks were found for seasonal outdoor walking >2 h/day versus 30-60 min/day (summer HR = 0.81, 95% CI 0.66-1.00; autumn HR = 0.74, 95%CI 0.55-1.01). Seasonal PAs were not associated with melanoma risk. In conclusion, we found positive associations between overall PA and sunbathing vacations and indoor tanning, and, unlike literature, inverse association between overall PA and sunburns. Our results do not support a positive association between PA and melanoma risk in Norwegian women.

"Repeatability of Repeatability": the stability of self-reported melanoma risk factors in two independent samples

OBJECTIVE

To determine the test-retest repeatability of a self-completed survey with items capturing skin cancer risk factors.

METHODS

We invited 238 randomly selected participants of the QSkin II cohort to complete the baseline survey a second time. Responses were compared using kappa statistics and intraclass correlation coefficients to quantify agreement for categorical and continuous variables, respectively. We compared the performance of key items with that observed in an earlier repeatability study using the same survey instrument in an independent cohort.

RESULTS

Measures of phenotypic characteristics had moderate to almost-perfect test-retest repeatability (e.g. eye colour weighted kappa (κ_w ) = 0.87, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.81, 0.92). Items measuring sun exposure showed lower agreement (κ_w range 0.36-0.54) compared with phenotypic characteristics (κ_w range 0.59-0.87). Items relating to treatment of skin cancers demonstrated almost-perfect test-retest repeatability (e.g. excisions for skin cancers κ_w 0.85, 95%CI: 0.80, 0.89). In aggregate, the repeatability of key items was very similar across the two independent repeatability samples.

CONCLUSION

Fair to almost-perfect repeatability for self-reported skin cancer risk factors was robust across independent and temporally distant cohorts. Implications for public health: These self-assessed risk factors for skin cancer are repeatable and suitable for use in clinical practice and research.

Association of Lifetime Indoor Tanning and Subsequent Risk of Cutaneous Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Importance

No study, to our knowledge, has prospectively investigated a dose-response association between lifetime indoor tanning and risk of cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (SCC).

Objective

To investigate the dose-response association between lifetime indoor tanning and SCC risk, the association between duration of use and age at initiation with SCC risk, and the association between age at initiation and age at diagnosis.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study included data from women born from 1927 to 1963 from the Norwegian Women and Cancer study, established in 1991 with follow-up through December 31, 2015. Baseline questionnaires were issued to participants from 1991 to 2007, with follow-up questionnaires given every 5 to 7 years. Data analysis was performed from January 2, 2018, to March 2, 2019.

Exposures

Participants reported pigmentation factors. Sunburns, sunbathing vacations, and indoor tanning were reported for childhood, adolescence, and adulthood.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Information on all cancer diagnoses and dates of emigration or death were obtained through linkage to the Cancer Registry of Norway, using the unique personal identification number of Norwegian citizens.

Results

A total of 159 419 women (mean [SD] age at inclusion, 49.9 [8.3] years) were included in the study. During follow-up (mean [SD], 16.5 [6.4] years), 597 women were diagnosed with SCC. Risk of SCC increased with increasing cumulative number of indoor tanning sessions. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for highest use vs never use was 1.83 (95% CI, 1.38-2.42; P < .001 for trend). A significantly higher risk of SCC was found among women with 10 years or less of use (HR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.08-1.85) and more than 10 years of use (HR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.16-1.76) and among women with age at initiation of 30 years or older (HR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.11-1.67) and younger than 30 years (HR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.18-1.92) vs never users. No significant association was found between age at initiation and age at diagnosis (estimated regression coefficient, -0.09 [95% CI, -1.11 to 0.94] for age at initiation of ≥30 years and -0.02 [95% CI, -1.27 to 1.22] for <30 years vs never use).

Conclusion and Relevance

The findings provide supporting evidence that there is a dose-response association between indoor tanning and SCC risk among women. The association between cumulative exposure to indoor tanning and SCC risk was the same regardless of duration of use and age at initiation. These results support development of policies that regulate indoor tanning.

Risk Prediction Models for Melanoma: A Systematic Review on the Heterogeneity in Model Development and Validation

The rising incidence of cutaneous melanoma over the past few decades has prompted substantial efforts to develop risk prediction models identifying people at high risk of developing melanoma to facilitate targeted screening programs. We review these models, regarding study characteristics, differences in risk factor selection and assessment, evaluation, and validation methods. Our systematic literature search revealed 40 studies comprising 46 different risk prediction models eligible for the review. Altogether, 35 different risk factors were part of the models with nevi being the most common one (n = 35, 78%); little consistency in other risk factors was observed. Results of an internal validation were reported for less than half of the studies (n = 18, 45%), and only 6 performed external validation. In terms of model performance, 29 studies assessed the discriminative ability of their models; other performance measures, e.g., regarding calibration or clinical usefulness, were rarely reported. Due to the substantial heterogeneity in risk factor selection and assessment as well as methodologic aspects of model development, direct comparisons between models are hardly possible. Uniform methodologic standards for the development and validation of risk prediction models for melanoma and reporting standards for the accompanying publications are necessary and need to be obligatory for that reason.

Validation of SEPI in German-A German Translation of the Sun Exposure and Protection Index

The Sun Exposure and Protection Index (SEPI) is a brief instrument for scoring of sun exposure habits and propensity to increase sun protection, previously validated in English and in Swedish, as well as in two different outdoor sun intensity environments (Australia and Northern Europe). The aim of the present study was to study reliability and validity of a German translated version of the SEPI to be used in German-speaking populations. Data was collected at University of Flensburg and at Hamburg University of Applied Sciences from November 2018 to April 2019. Participants (n = 205) filled out the SEPI and also a selection of corresponding questions from the Austrian Vienna UV Questionnaire in German. After three weeks, the participants filled out the SEPI once again in order to assess test–retest stability. Of the 205 participants completing the baseline questionnaire, 135 participants completed it once again after three weeks. Internal consistency, by Cronbach’s alpha, for the baseline responses was 0.70 (95% C.I: 0.63–0.76) for SEPI part 1 (sun exposure habits) and 0.72 (95% C.I: 0.66–0.78) for part 2 (propensity to increase sun protection). Test–retest stability was high, with weighted Kappa >0.6 for all items but one, and the instrument correlated well with the previously validated German-language UV Skin Risk Survey Questionnaire. In conclusion, the German version of SEPI can reliably be used for mapping of individual sun exposure patterns.

Challenges in assessing the sunscreen-melanoma association

Whether sunscreen use affects melanoma risk has been widely studied with contradictory results. To answer this question we performed a systematic review of all published studies, accounting for sources of heterogeneity and bias. We searched for original articles investigating the sunscreen-melanoma association in humans to February 28, 2018. We then used random-effects meta-analysis to combine estimates of the association, stratified by study design. Stratified meta-analysis and meta-regression were used to identify sources of heterogeneity. We included 21,069 melanoma cases from 28 studies published 1979-2018: 23 case-control (11 hospital-based, 12 population-based), 1 ecological, 3 cohort and 1 randomised controlled trial (RCT). There was marked heterogeneity across study designs and among case-control studies but adjustment for confounding by sun exposure, sunburns and phenotype systematically moved estimates toward decreased melanoma risk among sunscreen users. Ever- vs. never-use of sunscreen was inversely associated with melanoma in hospital-based case-control studies (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 0.57, 95%confidence interval (CI) 0.37-0.87, pheterogeneity < 0.001), the ecological study (rate ratio = 0.48, 95%CI 0.35-0.66), and the RCT (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.49, 95%CI 0.24-1.01). It was not associated in population-based case-control studies (OR = 1.17, 95%CI 0.90-1.51, pheterogeneity < 0.001) and was positively associated in the cohort studies (HR = 1.27, 95%CI 1.07-1.51, pheterogeneity = 0.236). The association differed by latitude (pinteraction = 0.042), region (pinteraction = 0.008), adjustment for naevi/freckling (pinteraction = 0.035), and proportion of never-sunscreen-users (pinteraction = 0·012). Evidence from observational studies on sunscreen use and melanoma risk was weak and heterogeneous, consistent with the challenges of controlling for innate confounding by indication. The only RCT showed a protective effect of sunscreen.

Association of Phenotypic Characteristics and UV Radiation Exposure With Risk of Melanoma on Different Body Sites

Importance

Two pathways have been hypothesized for the development of cutaneous melanoma: one typically affects the head and neck, a site with chronic sun damage, and the other affects the trunk, which is less exposed to the sun. However, the possible cause of limb melanomas is less studied under this hypothesis.

Objective

To investigate the association between phenotypic characteristics, pattern of UV radiation exposure, and risk of melanoma on different body sites.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This study used data on 161 540 women with information on phenotypic characteristics and UV radiation exposure who were part of the Norwegian Women and Cancer study, a population-based prospective study established in 1991 with exposure information collected by questionnaires at baseline and every 4 to 6 years during follow-up through 2015. Data analysis was performed from October 2017 through May 2018.

Exposures

Participants reported hair color, eye color, untanned skin color, number of small symmetric and large asymmetric nevi, and freckling, as well as histories of sunburns, sunbathing vacations, and indoor tanning in childhood, adolescence, and adulthood.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The Norwegian Women and Cancer study was linked to the Cancer Registry of Norway for data on cancer diagnosis and date of death or emigration. Primary melanoma site was categorized as head and neck, trunk, upper limbs, and lower limbs.

Results

During follow-up of the 161 540 women in the study (mean age at study entry, 50 years [range, 34-70 years]; mean age at diagnosis, 60 years [range, 34-87 years]), 1374 incident cases of melanoma were diagnosed. Having large asymmetric nevi was a significant risk factor for all sites and was strongest for the lower limbs (relative risk [RR], 3.38; 95% CI, 2.62-4.38) and weakest for the upper limbs (RR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.22-3.17; P = .02 for heterogeneity). Mean lifetime number of sunbathing vacations was significantly associated with risk of trunk melanomas (RR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.07-1.22) and lower limb melanomas (RR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.05-1.19) but not upper limb melanomas (RR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.88-1.09) and head and neck melanomas (RR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.73-1.04; P = .006 for heterogeneity). Indoor tanning was associated only with trunk melanomas (RR for the highest tertile, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.16-1.92) and lower limb melanomas (RR for the highest tertile, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.00-1.76; P = .002 for heterogeneity). Skin color, hair color, small symmetric nevi, and history of sunburns were associated with risk of melanoma on all sites.

Conclusions and Relevance

These results appear to support the hypothesis of divergent pathways to melanoma and that recreational sun exposure and indoor tanning are associated with melanoma on the lower limbs, the most common site of melanoma in women. These findings appear to have important preventive implications.

Indoor Tanning and Melanoma Risk: Long-Term Evidence From a Prospective Population-Based Cohort Study

Indoor tanning is associated with increased risk of melanoma, but most evidence comes from case-control studies. Using data from the Norwegian Women and Cancer Study, a large prospective cohort study, we investigated the associations of age at initiation of indoor tanning, duration of tanning-device use, and dose response with melanoma risk and examined the role of indoor tanning in age at melanoma diagnosis. We used Poisson regression to estimate relative risks and 95% confidence intervals for the relationship of indoor tanning to melanoma risk and linear regression to examine age of indoor tanning initiation in relation to age at diagnosis. During follow-up of 141,045 women (1991-2012; mean duration follow-up = 13.7 years), 861 women were diagnosed with melanoma. Melanoma risk increased with increasing cumulative number of tanning sessions (for highest tertile of use vs. never use, adjusted relative risk = 1.32, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.08, 1.63); P-trend = 0.006. Age at initiation <30 years was associated with a higher risk in comparison with never use (adjusted relative risk = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.07, 1.59). Moreover, women who started indoor tanning prior to 30 years of age were 2.2 years (95% CI: 0.9, 3.4) younger at diagnosis, on average, than never users. This cohort study provides strong evidence of a dose-response association between indoor tanning and risk of melanoma and supports the hypothesis that vulnerability to the harmful effects of indoor tanning is greater at a younger age.

Sunscreen Use and Subsequent Melanoma Risk: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Purpose

To assess melanoma risk in relation to sunscreen use and to compare high– with low–sun protection factor (SPF) sunscreens in relation to sunbathing habits in a large cohort study.

Materials and Methods

We used data from the Norwegian Women and Cancer Study, a prospective population-based study of 143,844 women age 40 to 75 years at inclusion with 1,532,247 person-years of follow-up and 722 cases of melanoma. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the association between sunscreen use (never, SPF < 15, SPF ≥ 15) and melanoma risk by calculating hazard ratios and 95% CIs. The population attributable fraction associated with sunscreen use was estimated.

Results

Sunscreen users reported significantly more sunburns and sunbathing vacations and were more likely to use indoor tanning devices. SPF ≥ 15 sunscreen use was associated with significantly decreased melanoma risk compared with SPF < 15 use (hazard ratio, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.53 to 0.83). The estimated decrease in melanoma (population attributable fraction) with general use of SPF ≥ 15 sunscreens by women age 40 to 75 years was 18% (95% CI, 4% to 30%).

Conclusion

Use of SPF ≥ 15 rather than SPF < 15 sunscreens reduces melanoma risk. Moreover, use of SPF ≥ 15 sunscreen by all women age 40 to 75 years could potentially reduce their melanoma incidence by 18%.

Test-retest reliability of self-reported diabetes diagnosis in the Norwegian Women and Cancer Study: A population-based longitudinal study (n =33,919)

Objective:

Self-reported information from questionnaires is frequently used in epidemiological studies, but few of these studies provide information on the reproducibility of individual items contained in the questionnaire. We studied the test–retest reliability of self-reported diabetes among 33,919 participants in Norwegian Women and Cancer Study.

Methods:

The test–retest reliability of self-reported type 1 and type 2 diabetes diagnoses was evaluated between three self-administered questionnaires (completed in 1991, 1998, and 2005 by Norwegian Women and Cancer participants) by kappa agreement. The time interval between the test–retest studies was ~7 and ~14 years. Sensitivity of the kappa agreement for type 1 and type 2 diabetes diagnoses was assessed. Subgroup analysis was performed to assess whether test–retest reliability varies with age, body mass index, physical activity, education, and smoking status.

Results:

The kappa agreement for both types of self-reported diabetes diagnoses combined was good (⩾0.65) for all three test–retest studies (1991–1998, 1991–2005, and 1998–2005). The kappa agreement for type 1 diabetes was good (⩾0.73) in the 1991–2005 and the 1998–2005 test–retest studies, and very good (0.83) in the 1991–1998 test–retest study. The kappa agreement for type 2 diabetes was moderate (0.57) in the 1991–2005 test–retest study and good (⩾0.66) in the 1991–1998 and 1998–2005 test–retest studies. The overall kappa agreement in the 1991–1998 test–retest study was stronger than in the 1991–2005 test–retest study and the 1998–2005 test–retest study. There was no clear pattern of inconsistency in the kappa agreements within different strata of age, BMI, physical activity, and smoking. The kappa agreement was strongest among the respondents with 17 or more years of education, while generally it was weaker among the least educated group.

Conclusion:

The test–retest reliability of the diabetes was acceptable and there was no clear pattern of inconsistency in the kappa agreement stratified by age, body mass index, physical activity, and smoking. The study suggests that self-reported diabetes diagnosis from middle-aged women enrolled in the Norwegian Women and Cancer Study is reliable.

Reproducibility of self-reported melanoma risk factors in melanoma patients

As melanoma researchers continue to investigate environmental and lifestyle-related risk factors, questionnaire data remain important. The reproducibility of a questionnaire on melanoma risk factors was investigated using a test-retest approach in 389 Dutch melanoma patients. In 2011, 389 melanoma patients filled out a questionnaire on melanoma risk factors twice. Test-retest reproducibility was assessed by calculating kappas (κ), weighted kappas (κw), and intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) for categorical, ordinal, and continuous variables, respectively. Stratified analyses were carried out by sex, age group, education level, and time since diagnosis. The median time between the questionnaires was 31 days. The reproducibility was substantial for questions on phenotypic characteristics (κ/κw/ICC=0.62-0.77), fair-to-substantial for sun exposure and sun protection behavior (κ/κw/ICC=0.38-0.79), and moderate for sunburn history (κ/κw=0.42-0.51). No clear differences were observed between men and women. Younger patients showed a better reproducibility in nine of the 29 questions compared with older patients and higher educated patients showed a better reproducibility in four of the 29 questions. Patients with a diagnosis shorter than 1.5 years ago had a better reproducibility in four out of 29 items compared with patients with a diagnosis 1.5-3.0 years ago. Our study showed that self-reported information on melanoma risk factors is fairly well reproducible. Although this does not guarantee validity, this type of questionnaire seems to be useful in research settings. The reproducibility is slightly better in young patients and patients with a higher education level, which can be taken into account when interpreting results from epidemiological studies.

The association of indoor tanning and melanoma in adults: systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Tanning beds are associated with increased risk of melanoma.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to update the evidence of the association of melanoma and indoor tanning focusing on frequency of use and exposure to newer tanning beds.

METHODS

We searched Scopus, MEDLINE, and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature on August 14, 2013. We included all observational studies that included patients with melanoma who had indoor tanned. Odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were extracted and combined using generic inverse variance methods assuming a random effects model.

RESULTS

In all, 31 studies were included with data available on 14,956 melanoma cases and 233,106 controls. Compared with never using, the OR for melanoma associated with ever using indoor tanning beds was 1.16 (95% CI 1.05-1.28). Similar findings were identified in recent studies with enrollment occurring in the year 2000 onward (OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.03-1.45) and in subjects attending more than 10 tanning sessions (OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.05-1.71).

LIMITATIONS

The quality of evidence contributing to review results ranges from poor to mediocre.

CONCLUSION

Using tanning beds is associated with a subsequent melanoma diagnosis. Exposure from more than 10 tanning sessions is most strongly associated and there was no statistically significant difference in this association before and after 2000, suggesting that newer tanning technology is not safer than older models.

Individual, environmental, and meteorological predictors of daily personal ultraviolet radiation exposure measurements in a United States cohort study

BACKGROUND

Individual exposure to ultraviolet radiation (UVR) is challenging to measure, particularly for diseases with substantial latency periods between first exposure and diagnosis of outcome, such as cancer. To guide the choice of surrogates for long-term UVR exposure in epidemiologic studies, we assessed how well stable sun-related individual characteristics and environmental/meteorological factors predicted daily personal UVR exposure measurements.

METHODS

We evaluated 123 United States Radiologic Technologists subjects who wore personal UVR dosimeters for 8 hours daily for up to 7 days (N = 837 days). Potential predictors of personal UVR derived from a self-administered questionnaire, and public databases that provided daily estimates of ambient UVR and weather conditions. Factors potentially related to personal UVR exposure were tested individually and in a model including all significant variables.

RESULTS

The strongest predictors of daily personal UVR exposure in the full model were ambient UVR, latitude, daily rainfall, and skin reaction to prolonged sunlight (R(2) = 0.30). In a model containing only environmental and meteorological variables, ambient UVR, latitude, and daily rainfall were the strongest predictors of daily personal UVR exposure (R(2) = 0.25).

CONCLUSIONS

In the absence of feasible measures of individual longitudinal sun exposure history, stable personal characteristics, ambient UVR, and weather parameters may help estimate long-term personal UVR exposure.

Use of tanning beds and incidence of skin cancer

PURPOSE

We sought to evaluate the risk effect of tanning bed use on skin cancers among teenage and young adults. We also expected to determine whether a dose-response relationship was evident.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We observed 73,494 female nurses for 20 years (from 1989 to 2009) in a large and well-characterized cohort in the United States and investigated whether frequency of tanning bed use during high school/college and at ages 25 to 35 years were associated with a risk of basal cell carcinoma (BCC), squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), and melanoma. We used Cox proportional hazards models and carefully adjusted for host risk factors, ultraviolet index of residence, and sun exposure behaviors at a young age.

RESULTS

During follow-up, 5,506 nurses were diagnosed with BCC, 403 with SCC, and 349 with melanoma. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of skin cancer for an incremental increase in use of tanning beds of four times per year during both periods was 1.15 (95% CI, 1.11 to 1.19; P < .001) for BCC, 1.15 (95% CI, 1.01 to 1.31; P = .03) for SCC, and 1.11 (95% CI, 0.97 to 1.27; P = .13) for melanoma. Compared with tanning bed use at ages 25 to 35 years, we found a significantly higher risk of BCC for use during high school/college (multivariable-adjusted HR for use more than six times per year compared with no use was 1.73 during high school/college v 1.28 at ages 25 to 35 years; P for heterogeneity < .001).

CONCLUSION

Our data provide evidence for a dose-response relationship between tanning bed use and the risk of skin cancers, especially BCC, and the association is stronger for patients with a younger age at exposure.

Polymorphisms in nevus-associated genes MTAP, PLA2G6, and IRF4 and the risk of invasive cutaneous melanoma

An evolving hypothesis postulates that melanomas may arise through 'nevus-associated' and 'chronic sun exposure' pathways. We explored this hypothesis by examining associations between nevus-associated loci and melanoma risk across strata of body site and histological subtype. We genotyped 1028 invasive case patients and 1469 controls for variants in methylthioadenosine phosphorylase (MTAP), phospholipase A2, group VI (PLA2G6), and Interferon regulatory factor 4 (IRF4), and compared allelic frequencies globally and by anatomical site and histological subtype of melanoma. Odds-ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using classical and multinomial logistic regression models. Among controls, MTAP rs10757257, PLA2G6 rs132985 and IRF4 rs12203592 were the variants most significantly associated with number of nevi. In adjusted models, a significant association was found between MTAP rs10757257 and overall melanoma risk (OR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.14-1.53), with no evidence of heterogeneity across sites (Phomogeneity =.52). In contrast, MTAP rs10757257 was associated with superficial spreading/nodular melanoma (OR = 1.34, 95% CI = 1.15- 1.57), but not with lentigo maligna melanoma (OR = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.46-1.35) (Phomogeneity =.06), the subtype associated with chronic sun exposure. Melanoma was significantly inversely associated with rs12203592 in children (OR = 0.35, 95% CI = 0.16-0.77) and adolescents (OR = 0.61, 95% CI = 0.42-0.91), but not in adults (Phomogeneity =.0008). Our results suggest that the relationship between MTAP and melanoma is subtype-specific, and that the association between IRF4 and melanoma is more evident for cases with a younger age at onset. These findings lend some support to the 'divergent pathways' hypothesis and may provide at least one candidate gene underlying this model. Further studies are warranted to confirm these findings and improve our understanding of these relationships.

Melanoma risk in relation to use of sunscreen or other sun protection methods

BACKGROUND

Epidemiologic evidence supporting sunscreen for melanoma prevention is limited to one small trial; case-control studies report conflicting results. Sunscreen usage patterns or alternative sun protection methods have rarely been studied in relation to melanoma.

METHODS

In a population-based case-control study, participants (1,167 cases; 1,101 controls) reported for each decade year of age outdoor activity-related sunscreen use, sunscreen patterns (SPF15+, amount, skin coverage, reapplication, routine use), and use of other sun protection methods (like hats, long-sleeved shirts, staying in the shade). Scores were averaged across activities and/or decades; scores in the most recent two decades were used to classify individuals as non-, inconsistent- or optimal users. Adjusted mean score differences between cases and controls, and ORs and 95% CIs for melanoma among optimal-, inconsistent- versus nonusers were calculated.

RESULTS

Mean scores for sunscreen, sunscreen patterns or other sun protection methods were low, but higher among controls than cases for SPF15+ sunscreen (P = 0.03) and other sun protection methods (P = 0.006). Adjusted ORs for optimal use of sunscreen and most sunscreen patterns were null or relatively weak, except for routine sunscreen (adjusted OR = 0.44, 95% CI: 0.23-0.86). Optimal use of other sun protection methods was inversely associated with melanoma (adjusted OR = 0.59, 95% CI: 0.44-0.78).

CONCLUSIONS

Optimal use of routine sunscreen or other sun protection methods were most strongly associated with decreased melanoma risk; results are limited by the small number of subjects who used sunscreen routinely and lack of specificity regarding other sun protection methods.

IMPACT

Both improving sunscreen practices and encouraging sun avoidance strategies may be important for melanoma prevention.

A new understanding in the epidemiology of melanoma

The incidence of melanoma is continuing to increase worldwide. UV exposure is a known risk factor for melanoma. Geographic location is known to influence UV exposure and the distribution of the incidence of melanoma. Furthermore, epidemiologic data suggest that gender and genetics may influence the distribution of melanoma on the body surface and histopathologic characteristics of the lesion. This article describes what is known about the impact of gender, ethnicity and geography on the progression of melanoma. Advanced-stage cutaneous melanoma has a median survival time of less than 1 year. Surgical removal, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, targeted therapies and a variety of immunotherapies have been utilized in the treatment of melanoma. Current treatment strategies and the results of recent clinical trials are also discussed in this article.

Invited commentary: a sunbed epidemic?

The Icelandic study of melanoma trends by Héry et al. in this issue of the Journal (Am J Epidemiol. 2010;172(7):762-767) is a fascinating analysis of an ecologic association. The authors noted a sharp increase in melanoma incidence that appeared to lag a few years behind the increased prevalence of sunbeds in Iceland. Caution, however, must be exercised in interpreting the data because of the lack of understanding of emissions of ultraviolet radiation from sunbeds and the ecologic nature of the data.

Predictors of sun protection behaviors and severe sunburn in an international online study

BACKGROUND

The incidence of melanoma continues to increase in many countries, and primary prevention of melanoma includes avoidance of sunburn as well as adequate sun protection behavior. The aim of this study was to examine the prevalence of self-reported sun protection behaviors and sunburn in users of the Internet, and to identify the demographic, clinical, and attitudinal/motivational correlates of sun protection behaviors.

METHODS

Self-report data were gathered on behalf of the GenoMEL consortium using an online survey available in 10 different languages, and 8,178 individuals successfully completed at least 80% of survey items, with 73% of respondents from Europe, 12% from Australia, 7% from the United States, 2% from Israel, and 6% from other countries.

RESULTS

Half of all respondents and 27% of those with a previous melanoma reported at least one severe sunburn during the previous 12 months. The strongest factors associated with sun protection behavior were perceived barriers to protection (beta = -0.44/beta = -0.37), and respondents who reported a positive attitude toward suntans were less likely to protect (beta = -0.16/beta = -0.14). Reported use of protective clothing and shade, as well as avoidance of midday sun exposure, were more strongly related to reduced risk of sunburn than sunscreen use.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite widespread dissemination of public health messages about the importance of sun protection, a substantial proportion of this international sample, including respondents with a previous melanoma, reported inadequate sun protection behaviors resulting in severe sunburn.

IMPACT

Future strategies to decrease sunburn should target the practical, social, and psychological barriers associated with nonuptake of sun protection.

Predictors of sun protection behaviors and severe sunburn in an international online study

BACKGROUND

The incidence of melanoma continues to increase in many countries, and primary prevention of melanoma includes avoidance of sunburn as well as adequate sun protection behavior. The aim of this study was to examine the prevalence of self-reported sun protection behaviors and sunburn in users of the Internet, and to identify the demographic, clinical, and attitudinal/motivational correlates of sun protection behaviors.

METHODS

Self-report data were gathered on behalf of the GenoMEL consortium using an online survey available in 10 different languages, and 8,178 individuals successfully completed at least 80% of survey items, with 73% of respondents from Europe, 12% from Australia, 7% from the United States, 2% from Israel, and 6% from other countries.

RESULTS

Half of all respondents and 27% of those with a previous melanoma reported at least one severe sunburn during the previous 12 months. The strongest factors associated with sun protection behavior were perceived barriers to protection (beta = -0.44/beta = -0.37), and respondents who reported a positive attitude toward suntans were less likely to protect (beta = -0.16/beta = -0.14). Reported use of protective clothing and shade, as well as avoidance of midday sun exposure, were more strongly related to reduced risk of sunburn than sunscreen use.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite widespread dissemination of public health messages about the importance of sun protection, a substantial proportion of this international sample, including respondents with a previous melanoma, reported inadequate sun protection behaviors resulting in severe sunburn.

IMPACT

Future strategies to decrease sunburn should target the practical, social, and psychological barriers associated with nonuptake of sun protection.

Indoor tanning and risk of melanoma: a case-control study in a highly exposed population

BACKGROUND

Indoor tanning has been only weakly associated with melanoma risk; most reports were unable to adjust for sun exposure, confirm a dose-response, or examine specific tanning devices. A population-based case-control study was conducted to address these limitations.

METHODS

Cases of invasive cutaneous melanoma, diagnosed in Minnesota between 2004 and 2007 at ages 25 to 59, were ascertained from a statewide cancer registry; age-matched and gender-matched controls were randomly selected from state driver's license lists. Self-administered questionnaires and telephone interviews included information on ever use of indoor tanning, types of device used, initiation age, period of use, dose, duration, and indoor tanning-related burns. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were adjusted for known melanoma risk factors.

RESULTS

Among 1,167 cases and 1,101 controls, 62.9% of cases and 51.1% of controls had tanned indoors (adjusted OR 1.74; 95% CI, 1.42-2.14). Melanoma risk was pronounced among users of UVB-enhanced (adjusted OR, 2.86; 95% CI, 2.03-4.03) and primarily UVA-emitting devices (adjusted OR, 4.44; 95% CI, 2.45-8.02). Risk increased with use: years (P < 0.006), hours (P < 0.0001), or sessions (P = 0.0002). ORs were elevated within each initiation age category; among indoor tanners, years used was more relevant for melanoma development.

CONCLUSIONS

In a highly exposed population, frequent indoor tanning increased melanoma risk, regardless of age when indoor tanning began. Elevated risks were observed across devices.

IMPACT

This study overcomes some of the limitations of earlier reports and provides strong support for the recent declaration by the IARC that tanning devices are carcinogenic in humans.

Melanoma risk factors, perceived threat and intentional tanning: an international online survey

Cutaneous melanoma continues to increase in incidence in many countries, and intentional tanning is a risk factor for melanoma. The aim of this study was to understand how melanoma risk factors, perceived threat and preferences for a suntan relate to intentional tanning. Self-report data were collected on behalf of GenoMEL (www.genomel.org) from the general population using an online survey. A total of 8178 individuals completed the survey, with 72.8% of respondents being from Europe, 12.1% from Australia, 7.1% from the US, 2.5% from Israel and 5.5% from other countries. Seven percent of respondents had previously been diagnosed with melanoma and 8% had at least one first-degree relative with a previous melanoma. Overall, 70% reported some degree of intentional tanning during the past year, and 38% of respondents previously diagnosed with melanoma had intentionally tanned. The total number of risk factors was positively correlated with perceived risk of melanoma [correlation coefficient (rho) = 0.27], and negatively correlated with intentional tanning (rho = -0.16). Preference for a dark suntan was the strongest predictor of intentional tanning [regression coefficient (beta) = 0.35, P<0.001], even in those with a previous melanoma (beta = 0.33, P<0.01). A substantial proportion of participants reported having phenotypic and behavioural risk factors for melanoma. The preference regarding suntans seemed more important in the participants' decision to intentionally tan than their perceived risk of developing melanoma, and this finding was consistent among respondents from different countries. The drive to sunbathe to tan is a key factor to be moderated if melanoma incidence is to be reduced.

Population-based, case-control-family design to investigate genetic and environmental influences on melanoma risk: Australian Melanoma Family Study

Discovering and understanding genetic risk factors for melanoma and their interactions with phenotype, sun exposure, and other risk factors could lead to new strategies for melanoma control. This paper describes the Australian Melanoma Family Study, which uses a multicenter, population-based, case-control-family design. From 2001 to 2005, the authors recruited 1,164 probands including 629 cases with histopathologically confirmed, first-primary cutaneous melanoma diagnosed before age 40 years, 240 population-based controls frequency matched for age, and 295 spouse/friend controls. Information on lifetime sun exposure, phenotype, and residence history was collected for probands and nearly 4,000 living relatives. More than 3,000 subjects donated a blood sample. Proxy-reported information was collected for childhood sun exposure and deceased relatives. Important features of this study include the population-based, family-based design; a focus on early onset disease; probands from 3 major cities differing substantially in solar ultraviolet exposure and melanoma incidence; a population at high risk because of high ultraviolet exposure and susceptible pigmentation phenotypes; population-based, spouse/friend, and sibling controls; systematic recruitment of relatives of case and control probands; self and parent reports of childhood sun exposure; and objective clinical skin examinations. The authors discuss methodological and analytical issues related to the study design and conduct, as well as the potentially novel insights the study can deliver.

Recall bias in melanoma risk factors and measurement error effects: a nested case-control study within the Norwegian Women and Cancer Study

Case-control studies of melanoma have the potential for recall bias after much public information about the relation with ultraviolet radiation. Recall bias has been investigated in few studies and only for some risk factors. A nested case-control study of recall bias was conducted in 2004 within the Norwegian Women and Cancer Study: 208 melanoma cases and 2,080 matched controls were invited. Data were analyzed for 162 cases (response, 78%) and 1,242 controls (response, 77%). Questionnaire responses to several host factors and ultraviolet exposures collected at enrollment in 1991-1997 and in 2004 were compared stratified on case-control status. Shifts in responses were observed among both cases and controls, but a shift in cases was observed only for skin color after chronic sun exposure, and a larger shift in cases was observed for nevi. Weighted kappa was lower for cases than for controls for most age intervals of sunburn, sunbathing vacations, and solarium use. Differences in odds ratio estimates of melanoma based on prospective and retrospective measurements indicate measurement error that is difficult to characterize. The authors conclude that indications of recall bias were found in this sample of Norwegian women, but that the results were inconsistent for the different exposures.

Invited commentary: Recall bias in melanoma -- much ado about almost nothing?

Recall bias has been given considerable attention in textbooks and methodological research because of its potential to jeopardize the validity of epidemiologic results. Case-control studies on self-reported ultraviolet radiation exposure as a risk factor for melanoma have been described as especially prone to the deleterious effect of recall bias because of the growing public awareness about these risks. Using an ideal test-retest design in a large nested case-control study, Parr et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2009;169(3):257-266) examined to what extent recall bias in melanoma risk factors is actually identifiable and which consequences its presence has on effect estimates of these risk factors. They found only minor indications of recall bias, showing an inconsistent overall pattern and a quite negligible effect on risk estimates. Recall bias was not observed in those exposures where it was most expected (solarium use and other ultraviolet radiation-related exposures). Their findings cannot be used as an argument that future case-control studies in melanoma epidemiology should be avoided because of the biasing effect of recall bias.

Are tanning beds "safe"? Human studies of melanoma

Controversy continues over the carcinogenic properties of tanning beds. The tanning industry "sells" tanning beds as a safe alternative to UV exposure for both tanning as well as vitamin D biosynthesis. But, how safe are tanning beds? Epidemiologic data - incomplete and unsatisfactory - suggests that tanning beds are not safer than solar ultraviolet radiation and that they may have independent effects from solar exposure that increase risk for melanoma.