Nomogram to Predict Postoperative Intra-abdominal Septic Complications After Bowel Resection and Primary Anastomosis for Crohn's Disease

Influencing factors and preventive measures of infectious complications after intestinal resection for Crohn’s disease

The incidence of Crohn’s disease (CD) has increased in recent years, with most patients requiring intestinal resection. Complications after intestinal resection for CD can lead to poor prognosis and recurrence, among which infectious complications are the most common. This study aimed to investigate the common risk factors, including medications, preoperative nutritional status, surgery-related factors, microorganisms, lesion location and type, and so forth, causing infectious complications after intestinal resection for CD, and to propose corresponding preventive measures. The findings provided guidance for identifying susceptibility factors and the early intervention and prevention of infectious complications after intestinal resection for CD in clinical practice.

Multimodal Prehabilitation for Patients with Crohn's Disease Scheduled for Major Surgery: A Narrative Review

Approximately 15-50% of patients with Crohn's disease (CD) will require surgery within ten years following the diagnosis. The management of modifiable risk factors before surgery is essential to reduce postoperative complications and to promote a better postoperative recovery. Preoperative malnutrition reduced functional capacity, sarcopenia, immunosuppressive medications, anemia, and psychological distress are frequently present in CD patients. Multimodal prehabilitation consists of nutritional, functional, medical, and psychological interventions implemented before surgery, aiming at optimizing preoperative status and improve postoperative recovery. Currently, studies evaluating the effect of multimodal prehabilitation on postoperative outcomes specifically in CD are lacking. Some studies have investigated the effect of a single prehabilitation intervention, of which nutritional optimization is the most investigated. The aim of this narrative review is to present the physiologic rationale supporting multimodal surgical prehabilitation in CD patients waiting for surgery, and to describe its main components to facilitate their adoption in the preoperative standard of care.

A nomogram to predict stoma creation in elective surgical resection for penetrating Crohn's disease

BACKGROUNDS

The decision to perform a stoma during surgical resection of penetrating Crohn's disease (CD) is a critical consideration. The objective of this study was to identify factors that influence stoma creation and develop a predictive nomogram model to assist surgeons in making optimal surgical decisions.

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted at a tertiary center from December 1, 2012, to December 1, 2021, involving consecutive patients with penetrating CD who underwent elective surgical resection. The LASSO regression method was used to select preoperative predictors, and a nomogram was constructed using multivariate logistic regression. The performance of the nomogram was validated in an internal cohort by assessing its discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness.

RESULTS

The study included 405 cases in the training group and 135 cases in the validation group. Nine risk factors for stoma formation were identified, including disease location, fistula resulted from previous anastomosis, absence of preoperative exclusive enteral nutrition support, albumin levels below 35 g/L, C-reactive protein levels above 10 mg/L, hemoglobin levels below 100 g/L, perianal disease, internal fistula, and surgical approach. These risk factors were selected using the LASSO regression method, and a nomogram was developed based on them. The area under the curve and the coefficient of determination (R2) of the nomogram were 0.821 and 0.394, respectively. And the nomogram demonstrated good performance in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram exhibited good predictive ability for stoma formation during elective surgical resection for penetrating CD, which can assist surgeons in making informed clinical decisions.

Predicting short-term major postoperative complications in intestinal resection for Crohn's disease: A machine learning-based study

BACKGROUND

Due to the complexity and numerous comorbidities associated with Crohn's disease (CD), the incidence of postoperative complications is high, significantly impacting the recovery and prognosis of patients. Consequently, additional studies are required to precisely predict short-term major complications following intestinal resection (IR), aiding surgical decision-making and optimizing patient care.

AIM

To construct novel models based on machine learning (ML) to predict short-term major postoperative complications in patients with CD following IR.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was performed on clinical data derived from a patient cohort that underwent IR for CD from January 2017 to December 2022. The study participants were randomly allocated to either a training cohort or a validation cohort. The logistic regression and random forest (RF) were applied to construct models in the training cohort, with model discrimination evaluated using the area under the curves (AUC). The validation cohort assessed the performance of the constructed models.

RESULTS

Out of the 259 patients encompassed in the study, 5.0% encountered major postoperative complications (Clavien-Dindo ≥ III) within 30 d following IR for CD. The AUC for the logistic model was 0.916, significantly lower than the AUC of 0.965 for the RF model. The logistic model incorporated a preoperative CD activity index (CDAI) of ≥ 220, a diminished preoperative serum albumin level, conversion to laparotomy surgery, and an extended operation time. A nomogram for the logistic model was plotted. Except for the surgical approach, the other three variables ranked among the top four important variables in the novel ML model.

CONCLUSION

Both the nomogram and RF exhibited good performance in predicting short-term major postoperative complications in patients with CD, with the RF model showing more superiority. A preoperative CDAI of ≥ 220, a diminished preoperative serum albumin level, and an extended operation time might be the most crucial variables. The findings of this study can assist clinicians in identifying patients at a higher risk for complications and offering personalized perioperative management to enhance patient outcomes.

Biologic use is not associated with postoperative complications in patients with Crohn's disease undergoing stoma reversion

PURPOSE

Stoma creation is a common procedure in patients with Crohn's disease (CD), and early prophylaxis with biologics is recommended for high-risk patients. However, the effect of biologic exposure on morbidity after stoma closure remains unknown. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the impact of biologic use on the occurrence of complications in CD patients following stoma closure.

METHODS

Consecutive patients diagnosed with CD who underwent ileostomy reversal at a tertiary care centre between 1 January 2013 and 1 December 2021, were included in the study. The primary outcome was the occurrence of 90-day postoperative complications.

RESULTS

The study included 347 eligible patients who underwent ileostomy reversal. There was no significant difference in terms of infectious complications, overall complications or length of postoperative stay between the biologic and non-biologic groups. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified several predictors of postoperative morbidity, including preoperative haemoglobin levels below 100 g/L, CRP levels above 10 mg/L, anastomotic site, ileostomy-related infectious complications and albumin levels below 35 g/L.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated that the use of biologics is not associated with adverse outcomes. However, such as high CRP levels, ileostomy-related infectious complications, hypoproteinemia, and hemoglobinemia, should be optimized prior to surgery to reduce postoperative morbidities.

Nutrition, Nutritional Status, Micronutrients Deficiency, and Disease Course of Inflammatory Bowel Disease

During the disease course, most Inflammatory Bowel Disease patients present a condition of malnutrition, undernutrition, or even overnutrition. These conditions are mainly due to suboptimal nutritional intake, alterations in nutrient requirements and metabolism, malabsorption, and excessive gastrointestinal losses. A suboptimal nutritional status and low micronutrient serum levels can have a negative impact on both induction and maintenance of remission and on the quality of life of Inflammatory Bowel Disease patients. We performed a systematic review including all the studies evaluating the connection between nutrition, nutrition status (including undernutrition and overnutrition), micronutrient deficiency, and both disease course and therapeutic response in Inflammatory Bowel Disease patients. This systematic review was performed using PubMed/MEDLINE and Scopus. Four main clinical settings concerning the effect of nutrition on disease course in adult Inflammatory Bowel Disease patients were analyzed (induction of remission, maintenance of remission, risk of surgery, post-operative recurrence, and surgery-related complications). Four authors independently reviewed abstracts and manuscripts for eligibility. 6077 articles were found; 762 duplicated studies were removed. Out of 412 full texts analyzed, 227 were included in the review. The evidence summarized in this review showed that many nutritional aspects could be potential targets to induce a better control of symptoms, a deeper remission, and overall improve the quality of life of Inflammatory Bowel Disease patients.

The Risk of Developing Disabling Crohn's Disease: Validation of a Clinical Prediction Rule to Improve Treatment Decision Making

BACKGROUND

Crohn's disease (CD) is characterized by the development of complications over the course of the disease. It is crucial to identify predictive factors of disabling disease, in order to target patients for early intervention. We evaluated risk factors of disabling CD and developed a prognostic model.

METHODS

In total, 511 CD patients were retrospectively analyzed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify demographic, clinical, and biological risk factors. A predictive nomogram model was developed in a subgroup of patients with noncomplicated CD (inflammatory pattern and no perianal disease).

RESULTS

The rate of disabling CD within 5 years after diagnosis was 74.6%. Disabling disease was associated with gender, location of disease, requirement of steroids for the first flare, and perianal lesions. In the subgroup of patients (310) with noncomplicated CD, the rate of disabling CD was 80%. In the multivariate analysis age at onset <40 years (OR = 3.46, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.52-7.90), extensive disease (L3/L4) (OR = 2.67, 95% CI = 1.18-6.06), smoking habit (OR = 2.09, 95% CI = 1.03-4.27), requirement of steroids at the first flare (OR = 2.20, 95% CI = 1.09-4.45), and albumin (OR = 0.59, 95% CI = 0.36-0.96) were associated with development of disabling disease. The developed predictive nomogram based on these factors presented good discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.723 (95% CI: 0.670-0.830).

CONCLUSION

We identified predictive factors of disabling CD and developed an easy-to-use prognostic model that may be used in clinical practice to help identify patients at high risk and address treatment effectively.

Nomogram for prognosis of elderly patients with cervical cancer who receive combined radiotherapy

This retrospective study identified prognostic factors to help guide the clinical treatment of elderly patients (≥ 65 years) with cervical cancer who had undergone radiotherapy. A personalized model to predict 3- and 5-years survival was developed. A review was conducted of 367 elderly women with cervical cancer (staged II-III) who had undergone radiotherapy in our hospital between January 2012 and December 2016. The Cox proportional hazards regression model was used for survival analysis that considered age, hemoglobin, squamous cell carcinoma antigen, pathologic type, stage, pelvic lymph node metastasis status, and others. A nomogram was constructed to predict the survival rates. The median follow-up time was 71 months (4-118 months). The 3- (5-) years overall, progression-free, local recurrence-free, and distant metastasis-free survival rates were, respectively, 91.0% (84.4%), 92.3% (85.9%), 99.18% (99.01%), and 99.18% (97.82%). The following were significant independent prognostic factors for overall survival: tumor size, pre-treatment hemoglobin, chemotherapy, and pelvic lymph node metastasis. The C-index of the line chart was 0.699 (95% CI 0.652-0.746). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for 3- and 5-years survival were 0.751 and 0.724. The nomogram was in good concordance with the actual survival rates. The independent prognostic factors for overall survival in elderly patients with cervical cancer after radiotherapy were: tumor size, pre-treatment hemoglobin, chemotherapy, and pelvic lymph node metastasis. The novel prognostic nomogram based on these factors showed good concordance with the actual survival rates and can be used to guide personalized clinical treatment.

ECCO Topical Review: Roadmap to Optimal Peri-Operative Care in IBD

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Despite the advances in medical therapies, a significant proportion of patients with inflammatory bowel diseases [IBD] require surgical intervention. This Topical Review aims to offer expert consensus practice recommendations for peri-operative care to optimize outcomes of IBD patients who undergo surgery.

METHODS

A multidisciplinary panel of IBD healthcare providers systematically reviewed aspects relevant to peri-operative care in IBD. Consensus statements were developed using Delphi methodology.

RESULTS

A total of 20 current practice positions were developed following systematic review of the current literature covering use of medication in the peri-operative period, nutritional assessment and intervention, physical and psychological rehabilitation and prehabilitation, and immediate postoperative care.

CONCLUSION

Peri-operative planning and optimization of the patient are imperative to ensure favourable outcomes and reduced morbidity. This Topical Review provides practice recommendations applicable in the peri-operative period in IBD patients undergoing surgery.

Modified Primary Anastomosis Using an Intestinal Internal Drainage Tube for Crohn's Disease: A Pilot Study

PURPOSE

Surgical treatment is an important part of the management of Crohn's disease (CD). However, the current recommended staged procedures require two operations, with long hospital stays and high costs, while traditional primary anastomosis has a high risk of complications. Therefore, the aim of this study was to compare the clinical efficacy and safety of modified primary anastomosis using intestinal internal drainage tubes for CD.

METHODS

In this study, emergency and nonemergency CD patients were included separately. Then, the patients were divided into three subgroups: patients with intestinal internal drainage tubes (modified primary anastomosis), staged procedures, and traditional primary anastomosis. The main outcomes were the number of hospitalizations, length and cost of the first hospital stay, length and cost of total hospital stays, and complications.

RESULTS

The outcomes of the three subgroups of emergency CD patients were not significantly different. For nonemergency CD patients, patients with intestinal internal drainage tubes had shorter total hospital stays and fewer hospitalizations compared with the staged procedures subgroup, while no significant differences in any outcomes were observed between the modified and traditional primary anastomosis subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

For emergency CD patients, no significant advantage in terms of the main outcomes was observed for modified primary anastomosis. For nonemergency CD patients, modified primary anastomosis reduced the length of total hospital stays and hospitalizations compared with staged procedures. The placement of intestinal internal drainage tubes allows some patients who cannot undergo primary anastomosis to undergo it, which is a modification of traditional primary anastomosis.

The Effect of Anti-Tumor Necrosis Factor-Alpha Therapy within 12 Weeks Prior to Surgery on Postoperative Complications in Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

The rate of abdominal surgical interventions and associated postoperative complications in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients is still substantially high. There is an ongoing debate as to whether or not patients who undergo treatment with anti-tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) agents may have an increased risk for general and surgical postoperative complications. Therefore, a systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted in order to assess the effect of anti-TNF-α treatment within 12 weeks (washout period) prior to abdominal surgery on 30-day postoperative complications in patients with IBD. The results of previously published meta-analyses examining the effect of preoperative anti-TNF-α treatment on postoperative complications reported conflicting findings which is why we specifically focus on the effect of anti-TNF-α treatment within 12 weeks prior to surgery. PubMed, Cochrane, Scopus, Web of Science, World Health Organization Trial Registry, ClinicalTrials.gov and reference lists were searched (June 1995−February 2022) to identify studies, investigating effects of anti-TNF-α treatment prior to abdominal surgery on postoperative complications in IBD patients. Pooled odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated and subgroup analyses were performed. In this case, 55 cohort studies (22,714 patients) were included. Overall, postoperative complications (OR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.04−1.45; p = 0.02), readmission (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.11−1.73; p = 0.004), and intra-abdominal septic complications (OR, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.44−2.49; p < 0.00001) were significantly higher for anti-TNF-α-treated patients. Significantly higher intra-abdominal abscesses and readmission were found for anti-TNF-α-treated CD patients (p = 0.05; p = 0.002). Concomitant treatment with immunosuppressives in <50% of anti-TNF-α-treated patients was associated with significantly lower mortality rates (OR, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.12−0.83; p = 0.02). Anti-TNF-α treatment within 12 weeks prior to surgery is associated with higher short-term postoperative complication rates (general and surgical) for patients with IBD, especially CD.

National epidemiologic trends (2008-2018) in the United States for the incidence and expenditures associated with incisional hernia in relation to abdominal surgery

PURPOSE

It is unknown whether the trend of rising incisional hernia (IH) repair (IHR) incidence and costs until 2011 currently persists. We aimed to evaluate how the IHR procedure incidence, cost and patient risk-profile have changed over the last decade relative to all abdominal surgeries (AS).

METHODS

Repeated cross-sectional analysis of 38,512,737 patients undergoing inpatient 4AS including IHR within the 2008-2018 National Inpatient Sample. Yearly incidence (procedures/1,000,000 people [PMP]), hospital costs, surgical and patient characteristics were compared between IHR and AS using generalized linear and multinomial regression.

RESULTS

Between 2008-2018, 3.1% of AS were IHR (1,200,568/38,512,737). There was a steeper decrease in the incidence of AS (356.5 PMP/year) compared to IHR procedures (12.0 PMP/year) which resulted in the IHR burden relative to AS (2008-2018: 12,576.3 to 9,113.4 PMP; trend difference P < 0.01). National costs averaged $47.9 and 1.7 billion/year for AS and IHR, respectively. From 2008-2018, procedure costs increased significantly for AS (68.2%) and IHR (74.6%; trends P < 0.01). Open IHR downtrended (42.2%), whereas laparoscopic (511.1%) and robotic (19,301%) uptrended significantly (trends P < 0.01). For both AS and IHR, the proportion of older (65-85y), Black and Hispanic, publicly-insured, and low-income patients, with higher comorbidity burden, undergoing elective procedures at small- and medium-sized hospitals uptrended significantly (all P < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

IH persists as a healthcare burden as demonstrated by the increased proportion of IHR relative to all AS, disproportionate presence of high-risk patients that undergo these procedures, and increased costs. Targeted efforts for IH prevention have the potential of decreasing $17 M/year in costs for every 1% reduction.

A retrospective cohort study: pre-operative oral enteral nutritional optimisation for Crohn's disease in a UK tertiary IBD centre

BACKGROUND

Low-quality evidence suggests that pre-operative exclusive enteral nutrition (E/EN) can improve postoperative outcomes in patients with Crohn's disease (CD). It is not standard practice in most centres.

AIMS

To test the hypothesis that pre-operative EN in patients undergoing ileal/ileocolonic surgery for CD is associated with improved postoperative outcome.

METHODS

We performed a single centre retrospective observational study comparing surgical outcomes in patients receiving pre-operative EN (≥600 kcal/day for ≥2 weeks) with those who received no nutritional optimisation. Consecutive adult patients undergoing ileal/ileocolonic resection from 2008 to 2020 were included. The primary outcome was postoperative complications <30 days. Secondary outcomes included EN tolerance, specific surgical complications, unplanned stoma formation, length of stay, length of bowel resected, readmission and biochemical/anthropometric changes.

RESULTS

300 surgeries were included comprising 96 without nutritional optimisation and 204 optimised cases: oral EN n = 173, additional PN n = 31 (4 of whom had received nasogastric/nasojejunal EN). 142/204 (69.6%) tolerated EN. 125/204 (61.3%) initiated EN in clinic. Patients in the optimised cohort were younger at operation and diagnosis, with an increased frequency of penetrating disease and exposure to antibiotics or biologics, and were more likely to undergo laparoscopic surgery. The optimised cohort had favourable outcomes on multivariate analysis: all complications [OR 0.29; 0.15-0.57, p < 0.001], surgical complications [OR 0.41; 95% CI 0.20-0.87, p = 0.02], non-surgical complications [OR 0.24 95% CI 0.11-0.52, p < 0.001], infective complications [OR 0.32; 95% CI 0.16-0.66, p = 0.001].

CONCLUSIONS

Oral EN was reasonably well tolerated and associated with a reduction in 30-day postoperative complications. Randomised controlled trials are required to confirm these findings.

Prehabilitation prior to intestinal resection in Crohn’s disease patients: An opinion review

Patients with Crohn’s disease (CD) are at a considerable risk for intestinal surgery. Approximately 25% of patients with CD will undergo an intestinal resection within 10 years of diagnosis. Postoperative complications after CD surgery have been reported in 20%-47% of the patients. Both general and CD-related risk factors are associated with postoperative complications, and comprise non-modifiable (e.g., age) and potentially modifiable risk factors (e.g., malnutrition). Prehabilitation focuses on the preoperative period with strategies designed to optimize modifiable risk factors concerning the physical and mental condition of the individual patient. The aim of prehabilitation is to enhance postoperative recovery and return to or even improve preoperative functional capacity. Preoperative improvement of nutritional status, physical fitness, cessation of smoking, psychological support, and critical revision of preoperative use of CD medication are important strategies. Studies of the effect on postoperative outcome in CD patients are scarce, and guidelines lack recommendations on tailored management. In this opinion review, we review the current evidence on the impact of screening and management of nutritional status, physical fitness, CD medication and laboratory values on the postoperative course following an intestinal resection in CD patients. In addition, we aim to provide guidance for individualized multimodal prehabilitation in clinical practice concerning these modifiable factors.

A nomogram to predict prolonged postoperative ileus after intestinal resection for Crohn's disease

PURPOSE

We aim to identify the risk factors of PPOI in patients with CD and create a nomogram for prediction of PPOI for CD.

METHODS

Data on 462 patients who underwent partial intestinal resection for CD in Jin-ling Hospital between January 2019 and June 2021 were retrospectively collected. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine the risk factors for PPOI and we used the risk factors to create a nomogram. Then we used the Bootstrap-Concordance index and calibration diagrams to evaluate the performance of the Nomogram. Decision curve analysis was performed to evaluate clinical practicability of the model.

RESULTS

The incidence of PPOI was 27.7% (n of N). Course of CD ≥ 10 years, operation time ≥ 154 min, the lowest mean arterial pressure ≤ 76.2 mmHg, in-out balance per body weight ≥ 22.90 ml/kg, post-op day 1 infusion ≥ 2847 ml, post-op lowest K⁺  ≤ 3.75 mmol/L, and post-op day 1 procalcitonin ≥ 2.445 ng/ml were identified as the independent risk factors of PPOI in patients with CD. The nomogram we created by these risk factors presented with good discriminative ability (concordance index 0.723) and was moderately calibrated (bootstrapped concordance index 0.704). The results of decision curve analysis showed that the nomogram was clinically effective within probability thresholds in the 8 to 66% range.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram we developed is helpful to evaluate the risk of developing PPOI after partial intestinal resection for CD. Clinicians can take more necessary measures to prevent PPOI in CD's patients or at least minimize the incidence.

Trocar Puncture With a Sump Drain for Crohn's Disease With Intra-Abdominal Abscess: A 10-Year Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

Traditional percutaneous catheter drainage (PCD) and surgical intervention could not always achieve satisfactory results for patients with Crohn's disease (CD) who have complications with intra-abdominal abscess. We proposed a trocar puncture with sump drainage for the treatment of CD with intra-abdominal abscess and compared it with the conventional PCD and surgical intervention.

Methods

Crohn's disease patients with intra-abdominal abscess and admitted to our hospital from 2011 to 2020 were identified by reviewing the electronic medical records. We divided them into Trocar, PCD, and fecal diverting (FD) groups, according to the ways of treating an abscess. Outcomes, risk factors for abscess recurrence, and postoperative complications were compared among the three groups.

Results

A total of 69 patients were included and they were divided into Trocar (n = 18), PCD (n = 29), and FD (n = 22) groups. Four patients in the PCD group were transferred to receive the FD surgery due to the failure of initial treatment. The incidence of abscess recurrence was significantly higher in the PCD (48%) and FD (50%) groups compared to the patients using the trocar puncture with the sump drain (Trocar group) (16.7%). There were 8 patients in Trocar, 22 in PCD, and 20 s in the FD group who received enterectomy. None of the patients in the Trocar had an ultimate stoma and the incidence of postoperative complications was statistically lower [0% (Trocar) vs. 31.8% (PCD) vs. 45% (FD), P < 0.05]. The way of initial treating of the abscess was significantly correlated with the abscess recurrence and postoperative complications.

Conclusions

Trocar puncture with a sump drain had a lower incidence of abscess recurrence, abdominal adhesions, postdrainage, and postoperative complications compared to the conventional PCD or surgical intervention.

Postoperative complications and waiting time for surgical intervention after radiologically guided drainage of intra-abdominal abscess in patients with Crohn's disease

BACKGROUND

In patients with active Crohn's disease (CD), treatment of intra-abdominal abscess usually comprises antibiotics and radiologically guided percutaneous drainage (PD) preceding surgery. The aim of this study was to investigate the risk of postoperative complications and identify the optimal time interval for surgical intervention after PD.

METHODS

A multicentre, international, retrospective cohort study was carried out. Details of patients with diagnosis of CD who underwent ultrasonography- or CT-guided PD were retrieved from hospital records using international classification of disease (ICD-10) diagnosis code for CD combined with procedure code for PD. Clinical variables were retrieved and the following outcomes were measured: 30-day postoperative overall complications, intra-abdominal septic complications, unplanned intraoperative adverse events, surgical-site infections, sepsis and pathological postoperative ileus, in addition to abscess recurrence. Patients were categorized into three groups according to the length of the interval from PD to surgery (1-14 days, 15-30 days and more than 30 days) for comparison of outcomes.

RESULTS

The cohort comprised 335 CD patients with PD followed by surgery. Median age was 33 (i.q.r. 24-44) years, 152 (45.4 per cent) were females, and median disease duration was 9 (i.q.r. 3.6-15) years. Overall, the 30-day postoperative complications rate was 32.2 per cent and the mortality rate was 1.5 per cent. After adjustment for co-variables, older age (odds ratio 1.03 (95 per cent c.i. 1.01 to 1.06), P < 0.012), residual abscess after PD (odds ratio 0.374 (95 per cent c.i. 0.19 to 0.74), P < 0.014), smoking (odds ratio 1.89 (95 per cent c.i. 1.01 to 3.53), P = 0.049) and low serum albumin concentration (odds ratio 0.921 (95 per cent c.i. 0.89 to 0.96), P < 0.001) were associated with higher rates of postoperative complications. A short waiting interval, less than 2 weeks after PD, was associated with a high incidence of abscess recurrence (odds ratio 0.59 (95 per cent c.i. 0.36 to 0.96), P = 0.042).

CONCLUSION

Smoking, low serum albumin concentration and older age were significantly associated with postoperative complications. An interval of at least 2 weeks after successful PD correlated with reduced risk of abscess recurrence.

Impact of the Crohn's disease digestive damage score (Lémann Index) on the perioperative course in patients with Crohn's disease and ileocolic anastomosis

BACKGROUND

Risk factors influencing the high postoperative morbidity in Crohn`s disease are controversially discussed but the role of cumulative structural bowel damage, as assessed by the Crohn's disease digestive damage score (Lémann Index), has been neglected so far. Our aim was evaluating the influence of the Lémann Index on postoperative complications and investigating its suitability for surgical decision making.

METHODS

A single-center, retrospective cohort study was conducted including Crohn`s disease patients who underwent ileocolic anastomosis. Lémann Indices were calculated and, additionally, categorized into three groups [0-3; 3-10; >10] due to the strong influence of previous bowel resections on high indices. A multivariate regression model was used to analyze the index`s influence on postoperative complications.

RESULTS

Patients with higher Lémann Index were more likely to need open surgery (p < .001) or stoma creation (p = .03). Overall, of the 103 patients enrolled, 18 (17.5%) showed postoperative complications Clavien-Dindo > 2. The Lémann Index was higher in patients with complications compared to those without (median 6.15 [IQR 4.16-11.98] vs. 3.88 [1.63-12.63]), but not linearly associated with postoperative complications. After categorization, patients with Lémann Index 3-10 had an 8.42 (95% CI 1.8-54.55) times higher chance to develop a complication compared to patients with Lémann Index 0-3 (p = .01).

CONCLUSIONS

The Lémann Index might affect surgical decision making but is not linearly associated with postoperative morbidity. However, medium indices (3-10) - mainly accounted for by high amounts of intraabdominal active Crohn`s lesions - showed significantly higher rates of complications, potentially defining a group at risk.

Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram to predict overall survival and cancer-specific survival for patients with anaplastic thyroid carcinoma

Background

Anaplastic thyroid carcinoma (ATC) is a rare malignant tumor with a poor prognosis. However, there is no useful clinical prognostic predictive tool for ATC so far. Our study identified risk factors for survival of ATC and created a reliable nomogram to predict overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of patients with ATC.

Methods

A total of 1,404 cases of ATC diagnosed between 1983 and 2013 were extracted from on the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database based on our inclusion criteria. OS and CSS were compared among patients between each variable by Kaplan-Meier methods. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to evaluate multiple prognostic factors and obtain independent predictors. All independent risk factors were included to build nomograms, whose accuracy and practicability were tested by concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, ROC curves, DCA, net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI).

Results

Historic stage, tumor size, surgery and radiotherapy were independent risk factors associated with ATC according to multivariate Cox regression analysis of OS. However, gender was also an important prognostic predictor in CSS besides the factors mentioned above. These characteristics were included in the nomograms predicting OS and CSS of patients with ATC. The nomograms predicting OS and CSS performed well with a C-index of 0.765 and 0.773. ROC curves, DCA, NRI and IDI suggested that the nomogram was superior to TNM staging and age.

Conclusion

The proposed nomogram is a reliable tool based on the prediction of OS and CSS for patients with ATC. Such a predictive tool can help to predict the survival of the patients.

Evaluation of Perioperative Complications in the Management of Biliary Atresia

Purpose: To analyze the influence of perioperative complications in the management of biliary atresia (BA). Methods: A retrospective study was performed using a total of 422 BA patients who underwent Kasai portoenterostomy (KPE) in a single institution between February 2016 and May 2017. Data on patients' clinical characteristics, laboratory examinations, perioperative complications, and outcomes were collected. Unpaired two-tailed t-test and χ² test were employed for the comparison between BA patients with and without perioperative complications. Cox regression analysis was used to screen the risk factors for 2-years NLS in BA, and their influence on the 2-years NLS was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis as well as the log-rank test. Results: The incidence of perioperative complications, 6-months jaundice clearance (JC) and 2-years native liver survival (NLS) rate were 60.4, 59.5, and 56.6%, respectively. Patients with perioperative complications had lower serum albumin (ALB) level, but higher aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) and international normalized ratio (INR) levels when compared with those without perioperative complications (ALB, P < 0.05; APRI, P < 0.01; INR, P < 0.05). Moreover, perioperative complications were correlated with glucocorticoid administration (P = 0.002). Univariate Cox regression analysis showed no relationship between perioperative complications and 2-years NLS (P > 0.05). However, multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated 6-months JC was an independent protective factor for 2-years NLS [P < 0.0001, hazard ratio (HR) = 0.074, 95% confidence interval = 0.05-0.11], and concordance index of this prediction model including age, weight, APRI, glucocorticoid, and 6-months JC was 0.811. Conclusion: Although perioperative complication is common during and after KPE, it had no influence on the prognosis of BA. However, assessment of the serum level of total bilirubin after KPE may serve as an important predictor for the outcome in BA.