Office, central and ambulatory blood pressure for predicting incident atrial fibrillation in older adults

The relationship between ambulatory arterial stiffness index and incident atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

The ambulatory arterial stiffness index (AASI) is an indirect measure of blood pressure variability and arterial stiffness which are atrial fibrillation (AF) risk factors. The relationship between AASI and AF development has not been previously investigated and was the primary aim of this study.

METHODS

This was an observational cohort study of adults (aged 18-85 years) in sinus rhythm, who underwent 24-h ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) for the diagnosis of hypertension or its control.

RESULTS

Eight hundred and twenty-one patients (49% men) aged 58.7 ± 15.3 years were followed up for a median of 4.0 years (3317 patient-years). In total, 75 patients (9.1%) developed ≥1 AF episode during follow-up. The mean AASI was 0.46 ± 0.17 (median 0.46). AASI values (0.52 ± 0.16 vs. 0.45 ± 0.17; p < .001) and the proportion of AASI values above the median (65.3% vs. 48.4%; p = .005) were greater among the patients who developed AF versus those that did not respectively. AASI significantly correlated with age (r = .49; 95% confidence interval: 0.44-0.54: p < .001). On Kaplan-Meier analysis, higher baseline AASI by median, tertiles, and quartiles were all significantly associated with AF development (X2: 10.13; p < .001). On Cox regression analyses, both a 1-standard deviation increase and AASI > median were independent predictors of AF, but this relationship was no longer significant when age was included in the model.

CONCLUSIONS

AASI is an independent predictor of AF development. However, this relationship becomes insignificant after adjustment for age which is higher correlated with AASI.

Atrial Fibrillation and Early Vascular Aging: Clinical Implications, Methodology Issues and Open Questions-A Review from the VascAgeNet COST Action

Atrial fibrillation (AF), the most common cardiac arrhythmia, is associated with adverse CV outcomes. Vascular aging (VA), which is defined as the progressive deterioration of arterial function and structure over a lifetime, is an independent predictor of both AF development and CV events. A timing identification and treatment of early VA has therefore the potential to reduce the risk of AF incidence and related CV events. A network of scientists and clinicians from the COST Action VascAgeNet identified five clinically and methodologically relevant questions regarding the relationship between AF and VA and conducted a narrative review of the literature to find potential answers. These are: (1) Are VA biomarkers associated with AF? (2) Does early VA predict AF occurrence better than chronological aging? (3) Is early VA a risk enhancer for the occurrence of CV events in AF patients? (4) Are devices measuring VA suitable to perform subclinical AF detection? (5) Does atrial-fibrillation-related rhythm irregularity have a negative impact on the measurement of vascular age? Results showed that VA is a powerful and independent predictor of AF incidence, however, its role as risk modifier for the occurrence of CV events in patients with AF is debatable. Limited and inconclusive data exist regarding the reliability of VA measurement in the presence of rhythm irregularities associated with AF. To date, no device is equipped with tools capable of detecting AF during VA measurements. This represents a missed opportunity to effectively perform CV prevention in people at high risk. Further advances are needed to fill knowledge gaps in this field.

Blood pressure, hypertension and the risk of atrial fibrillation: a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies

Elevated blood pressure and hypertension have been associated with increased risk of atrial fibrillation in a number of epidemiological studies, however, the strength of the association has differed between studies. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of the association between blood pressure and hypertension and atrial fibrillation. PubMed and Embase databases were searched for studies of hypertension and blood pressure and atrial fibrillation up to June 6th 2022. Cohort studies reporting adjusted relative risk (RR) estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of atrial fibrillation associated with hypertension or blood pressure were included. A random effects model was used to estimate summary RRs. Sixty eight cohort studies were included in the meta-analysis. The summary RR was 1.50 (95% CI: 1.42-1.58, I2 = 98.1%, n = 56 studies) for people with hypertension compared to those without hypertension (1,080,611 cases, 30,539,230 participants), 1.18 (95% CI: 1.16-1.21, I2 = 65.9%, n = 37 studies) per 20 mmHg increase in systolic blood pressure (346,471 cases, 14,569,396 participants), and 1.07 (95% CI: 1.03-1.11, I2 = 91.5%, n = 22 studies) per 10 mmHg increase in diastolic blood pressure (332,867 cases, 14,354,980 participants). There was evidence of a nonlinear association between diastolic blood pressure and atrial fibrillation with a steeper increase in risk at lower levels of diastolic blood pressure, but for systolic blood pressure the association appeared to be linear. For both systolic and diastolic blood pressure, the risk increased even within the normal range of blood pressure and persons at the high end of systolic and diastolic blood pressure around 180/110 mmHg had a 1.8-2.3 fold higher risk of atrial fibrillation compared to those with a blood pressure of 90/60 mmHg. These results suggest that elevated blood pressure and hypertension increases the risk of atrial fibrillation and there is some increase in risk even within the normal range of systolic and diastolic blood pressure.

Epidemiology and modifiable risk factors for atrial fibrillation

The global prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) has increased substantially over the past three decades and is currently approximately 60 million cases. Incident AF and its clinical consequences are largely the result of risk factors that can be modified by lifestyle changes. In this Review, we provide evidence that the lifetime risk of AF is modified not only by sex and race but also through the clinical risk factor and comorbidity burden of individual patients. We begin by summarizing the epidemiology of AF, focusing on non-modifiable and modifiable risk factors, as well as targets and strategies for the primary prevention of AF. Furthermore, we evaluate the role of modifiable risk factors in the secondary prevention of AF as well as the potential effects of risk factor interventions on the frequency and severity of subsequent AF episodes. We end the Review by proposing strategies that require evaluation as well as global policy changes that are needed for the prevention of incident AF and the management of recurrent episodes in patients already affected by AF.

Prediction of atrial fibrillation in patients with hypertension: A comprehensive comparison of office and ambulatory blood pressure measurements

Hypertension is associated with the development of atrial fibrillation (AF). Evidence has shown that reverse dipping pattern, an abnormal increase of night-time blood pressure (BP) comparing to daytime BP, is associated with cardiovascular events. However, the relationship between diurnal changes in BP and AF has not been sufficiently explored. This paper aims to cross-sectionally explore the relationship between AF and ambulatory BP parameters, especially reverse dippers to the others, and further longitudinally analyze how BP patterns are associated to the risk of developing new-onset AF. Between February 2012 and March 2021, five out of 412 patients were identified of AF at baseline; four were reverse dippers (3.7%) and one was from the others (.3%). Cross-sectionally, the multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that reverse dippers were significantly more likely to have AF (odds ratio: 12.39, p = .030). After excluding patients with baseline AF, during the mean follow-up of 4.6 ± 3.0 years, seven patients developed AF. Longitudinally, the multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that 24-h systolic BP (hazard ratio per 10 mmHg: 2.12, p = .015), night-time systolic BP (hazard ratio per 10 mmHg: 2.27, p = .002), and presentation of reverse dipping (hazard ratio: 5.25, p = .042) were independently associated with new-onset AF. None of the office BP measurements were associated with new-onset AF. While ambulatory BP measurements were better predictors for the incidence of AF, careful management is necessary for reverse dippers as they are at high risk of developing AF.

Office, Central, and Ambulatory Blood Pressure for Predicting First Stroke in Older Adults: A Community-Based Cohort Study

[Figure: see text].

Risk of Atrial Fibrillation in Masked and White Coat Uncontrolled Hypertension

BACKGROUND

Risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) in masked and white coat uncontrolled hypertension (MUCH and WUCH, respectively) has not yet been investigated. We assessed the risk of new-onset AF in MUCH and WUCH detected by ambulatory blood pressure (BP) monitoring.

METHODS

The occurrence of AF was evaluated in 2,135 treated hypertensive patients aged >40 years, with baseline sinus rhythm, by electrocardiogram. Controlled hypertension (CH) was defined as clinic BP <140/90 mm Hg and daytime BP, regardless of nighttime BP, <135/85 mm Hg, MUCH as clinic BP <140/90 mm Hg and daytime BP ≥135 and/or ≥85 mm Hg, WUCH as clinic BP ≥140 and/or ≥90 mm Hg and daytime BP <135/85 mm Hg, and sustained uncontrolled hypertension (SUCH) as clinic BP ≥140 and/or ≥90 mm Hg and daytime BP ≥135 and/or ≥85 mm Hg.

RESULTS

MUCH was identified in 203 patients (9.5% of all the population, 29% of those with normal clinic BP) and WUCH in 503 patients (23.5% of all the population, 35% of those with high clinic BP). During the follow-up (mean 9.7 years), 116 cases of AF occurred. After adjustment for covariates, patients with MUCH (hazard ratio 2.02, 95% confidence interval, 1.06-3.85) and SUCH (hazard ratio 1.83, 95% confidence interval, 1.04-3.21) had higher risk of new-onset AF than those with CH, whereas those with WUCH (hazard ratio 1.12, 95% confidence interval, 0.59-2.13) did not.

CONCLUSIONS

When compared with patients with CH, those with MUCH and SUCH are at higher risk (approximately doubled) of new-onset AF, whereas those with WUCH are not.

Association of clinic and ambulatory blood pressure with new-onset atrial fibrillation: A meta-analysis of observational studies

The aim of this study was to perform a meta‐analysis of studies evaluating the association of clinic and daytime, nighttime, and 24‐h blood pressure with the occurrence of new‐onset atrial fibrillation. We conducted a literature search through PubMed, Web of science, and Cochrane Library for articles evaluating the occurrence of new‐onset atrial fibrillation in relation to the above‐mentioned blood pressure parameters and reporting adjusted hazard ratio and 95% confidence interval. We identified five studies. The pooled population consisted of 7224 patients who experienced 444 cases of atrial fibrillation. The overall adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) was 1.05 (0.98‐1.13), 1.19 (1.11‐1.27), 1.18 (1.11‐1.26), and 1.23 (1.14‐1.32), per 10‐mmHg increment in clinic, daytime, nighttime, and 24‐h systolic blood pressure, respectively. The degree of heterogeneity of the hazard ratio estimates across the studies (Q and I‐squared statistics) were minimal. The results of this meta‐analysis strongly suggest that ambulatory systolic blood pressure prospectively predicts incident atrial fibrillation better than does clinic systolic blood pressure and that daytime, nighttime, and 24‐h systolic blood pressure are similarly associated with future atrial fibrillation.