Prognosis of children with HIV-1 infection starting antiretroviral therapy in Southern Africa: a collaborative analysis of treatment programs

Predicting mortality within 1 year of ART initiation in children and adolescents living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa: a retrospective observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

Differentiated service delivery (DSD) for children and adolescents living with HIV can improve targeted resource use. We derived a mortality prediction score to guide clinical decision making for children and adolescents living with HIV.

METHODS

Data for this retrospective observational cohort study were evaluated for all children and adolescents living with HIV and initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART); aged 0-19 years; and enrolled at Baylor clinics in Eswatini, Malawi, Lesotho, Tanzania, and Uganda between 2005 and 2020. Data for clinical prediction, including anthropometric values, physical examination, ART, WHO stage, and laboratory tests were captured at ART initiation. Backward stepwise variable selection and logistic regression were performed to develop predictive models for mortality within 1 year of ART initiation. Probabilities of mortality were generated, compared with true outcomes, internally validated, and evaluated against WHO advanced HIV criteria.

FINDINGS

The study population included 16 958 children and adolescents living with HIV and initiated on ART between May 18, 2005, and Dec 18, 2020. Predictive variables for the most accurate model included: age, CD4 percentage, white blood cell count, haemoglobin concentration, platelet count, and BMI Z score as continuous variables, and WHO clinical stage and oedema, abnormal muscle tone and respiratory distress on examination as categorical variables. The area under the curve (AUC) of the predictive model was 0·851 (95% CI 0·839-0·863) in the training set and 0·822 (0·800-0·845) in the test set, compared with 0·606 (0·595-0·617) for the WHO advanced HIV criteria (p<0·0001).

INTERPRETATION

This study evaluated a large, multinational population to derive a mortality prediction tool for children and adolescents living with HIV. The model more accurately predicted clinical outcomes than the WHO advanced HIV criteria and has the potential to improve DSD for children and adolescents living with HIV in high-burden settings.

FUNDING

National Institute of Health Fogarty International Center.

Antiretroviral choice and severe disease predict poorer neuropsychological outcomes in HIV+ children from Africa

BACKGROUND

The International Maternal Pediatric Adolescent AIDS Clinical Trials Network (IMPAACT) P1104s study evaluated neuropsychological outcomes over 96 weeks in children living with HIV (CLHIV) aged 5-11 years at 6 Sub-Saharan African sites to explore associations between HIV-illness related biomarkers and neuropsychological outcomes.

METHODS

Children living with HIV had participated in IMPAACT P1060, which compared efficacy of nevirapine versus lopinavir/ritonavir in children initiating ART at <3 years of age. At age 5-11, neuropsychological evaluations of KABC cognitive ability, TOVA attention-impulsivity and BOT-2 motor domains were assessed and repeated after 48 and 96 weeks. Clinical, antiretroviral therapy (ART) and laboratory (immunological and virological) parameters were used to predict neuropsychological outcomes using linear mixed-effects multivariable regression models, controlling for child and caregiver characteristics.

RESULTS

246 CLHIV (45% male, mean age at initial neuropsychological evaluation 7.1 yrs [SD 1.2]) began ART at a median age 14.9 months (IQR 8.2, 25.2). Nadir CD4 percentage was 14.7% (IQR 11.0, 19.5); the median peak viral load (VL) was 750 000 copies/ml (IQR 366 000, 750 000) and 63% had ≥WHO stage 3 clinical disease; 164 (67%) were on lopinavir/ritonavir, 71 (29%) were on nevirapine and 7 (3%) were on efavirenz. Other antiretrovirals were similar. Nevirapine at P1104s study start or later was associated with poorer neuropsychological scores across all domains except Global Executive Composite, even when controlling for nadir CD4 percent and time-varying HIV VL. Other predictors of poorer scores in KABC domains included low birth weight, WHO stage 4 disease and serious illness history and elevated VL was associated with worse BOT-2 scores.

CONCLUSION

Children receiving nevirapine had poorer neuropsychological scores than those on lopinavir/ritonavir. Antiretroviral choice might adversely impact neuropsychological performance. In addition, low birth weight and markers of severe HIV disease: advanced WHO clinical HIV disease, history of serious illness and an elevated VL, were associated with lower neuropsychological scores.

Level of Attrition from Antiretroviral Therapy Among Human Immune Deficiency Virus-Infected Children: The Cases of Sidama Zone, Southern Ethiopia

Background

Human immune deficiency virus (HIV) remains one of the leading causes of infectious disease mortality and morbidity in Sub-Saharan Africa. Although remarkable progress has been made in prevention and treatment of HIV, there is a higher rate of loss to follow-up in HIV-infected children than in adults, once they enter care.

Objective

To determine the incidence and identify predictors of loss to follow-up among HIV-infected children on anti-retroviral treatment in Sidama Zone, Ethiopia.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was done among children that were enrolled in ART care in Sidama Zone from September 2014 to August 2018. A total of 143 eligible children were included in this study. A structured checklist was used to extract data from patients’ medical records such as patient intake forms, electronic database, and registers. Data were entered, cleaned, coded, and analyzed by STATA version 12. Cox proportional hazards models were fitted to investigate predictors of loss to follow-up.

Results

Of the 143 participants, 76 (53.15%) were female children with a median age of 7 years and interquartile range of 4–9. The incidence rate was 5 per 100 person-years and the cumulative incidence 12.59%. The median follow-up time was 2.46 years and the total time at risk was 356.06 person-years. Furthermore, 55.56% and 72.22% of those lost to follow-up were within the first and the second years of follow-up, respectively. In multivariable Cox proportional model, only the TB status of the children was significantly associated with loss to follow-up with hazard ratio 3.348 [1.174831, 9.543494] and p-value of 0.024.

Conclusion

In this study, TB status of children was the significant determinant of loss to follow-up. However, the overall retention was 87.4% and a substantially higher proportion of loss was observed within the first and second years of follow-up.

International epidemiology databases to evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) in sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2019

PURPOSE

The objectives of the International epidemiology databases to evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) are to (i) evaluate the delivery of combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) in children, adolescents and adults in sub-Saharan Africa, (ii) to describe ART regimen effectiveness, durability and tolerability, (iii) to examine HIV-related comorbidities and coinfections and (iv) to examine the pregnancy-related and HIV-related outcomes of women on ART and their infants exposed to HIV or ART in utero or via breast milk.

PARTICIPANTS

IeDEA is organised in four regions (Central, East, Southern and West Africa), with 240 treatment and care sites, six data centres at African, European and US universities, and almost 1.4 million children, adolescents and adult people living with HIV (PLWHIV) enrolled.

FINDINGS TO DATE

The data include socio-demographic characteristics, clinical outcomes, opportunistic events, treatment regimens, clinic visits and laboratory measurements. They have been used to analyse outcomes in PLWHIV-1 or PLWHIV-2 who initiate ART, including determinants of mortality, of switching to second-line and third-line ART, drug resistance, loss to follow-up and the immunological and virological response to different ART regimens. Programme-level estimates of mortality have been corrected for loss to follow-up. We examined the impact of coinfection with hepatitis B and C, and the epidemiology of different cancers and of (multidrug resistant) tuberculosis, renal disease and of mental illness. The adoption of 'Treat All', making ART available to all PLWHIV regardless of CD4+ cell count or clinical stage was another important research topic.

FUTURE PLANS

IeDEA has formulated several research priorities for the 'Treat All' era in sub-Saharan Africa. It recently obtained funding to set up sentinel sites where additional data are prospectively collected on cardiometabolic risks factors as well as mental health and liver diseases, and is planning to create a drug resistance database.

Clinico-Immunological Status and Neurocognitive Function of Perinatally Acquired HIV-Positive Children on cART: A Cross-Sectional Correlational Study in South Africa

Despite the undisputed benefits of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART), perinatally acquired human immunodeficiency virus (PHIV) children on treatment often present with a spectrum of neurological deficits known as HIV-associated neurocognitive impairment. Even higher CD4 cell count does not seem to prevent the development of neurocognitive impairment in children with PHIV. While CD4 cell count has shown to have the greatest prognostic value, its association with neurocognitive abilities remains to be clarified. This study aimed at determining the correlation between plasma CD4+ lymphocyte and neurocognitive function in children with PHIV on cART. In total, 152 purposively recruited hospital-based sample of children with PHIV on cART, aged 3 years to 7 years 6 months (mean age, 63.13 months), underwent neurocognitive assessment using the Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence, Third Edition. Immunological status of each child was based on the plasma CD4+ lymphocyte levels. The mean CD4+ lymphocyte cell count at the time of neurocognitive assessment was 1,259.85 cells/mm3 (mean range, 139-2,717 cells/mm3), with significant age difference on CD4+ lymphocyte count levels [F (2, 149) = 13.58, p = 0.000]. CD4+ lymphocyte counts was significantly correlated with subdomains of neurocognitive function scores of task that measures working memory, processing speed, and perceptual reasoning. Global cognitive ability (Full Scale Intellectual Quotient) had no significant association with immunological status of the children. The findings support an association between immunological status of PHIV infection and executive function task. These neurocognitive faculties are critical for learning, school readiness and success in early childhood, and ultimately treatment adherence in adolescence. The need for early identification of neurodevelopment deficits in children, even when on cART, is crucial because early psychosocial and neurorehabilitative interventions can lead to better outcome for children with PHIV.

Mortality among pediatric patients on HIV treatment in sub-Saharan African countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Despite substantial improvements in accessibility of Anti-Retroviral Treatment (ART), death of children on ART remains a prevailing challenge in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. However, the pooled magnitude of mortality at different ART follow-up periods remains unknown for the region. We estimated the pooled proportion of all-cause mortality for pediatric patients receiving first-line ART at 3, 6, 12, and 24 months follow-up period in SSA.

Methods

We searched for relevant articles published between January 2014 and June 2018 on PubMed, Hinari and Google scholar databases. We searched for additional articles from reference lists and 2014–2018 abstracts archived by the Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections (CROI) and the International AIDS Society Conference on HIV Science (IAS).

Results

We reviewed 29 articles reporting mortality among pediatric ART patients at different follow-up periods in countries from 2001 to 2016. Among the 51,619 pediatric ART patients in these cohorts, studies reported 4061 (7.9%) all-cause cumulative death. The cumulative pooled proportion of mortality at 3, 6, 12 and 24 months of ART were 3% (95% CI: 3.0–4.0), 5% (95% CI: 4.0–6.0), 6% (95% CI: 5.0–7.0) and 7% (95% CI: 6.0–8.0), respectively.

Conclusions

In SSA, significant proportion of mortality among children occurs in the first 3–6 months of ART initiation. Western Africa has a little higher estimate of mortality among pediatric ART patients at 6 and 12 months of follow-up. Strategies to prevent early mortality including thorough screening and management of opportunistic infections before ART initiation are needed.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-019-6482-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Long-term survival outcomes of HIV infected children receiving antiretroviral therapy: an observational study from Zambia (2003-2015)

Background

In 2017, 64% of children living with HIV in Zambia accessed Antiretroviral Therapy (ART). Despite expanded ART coverage, there is paucity of information on effectiveness of pediatric ART in reducing mortality. The aim of this research is to describe treatment outcomes, measure mortality rates and assess predictors of mortality among children receiving ART.

Methods

Using a retrospective cohort study design, we abstracted routinely collected clinical data from medical records of children from birth to 15 years old, who had received ART for at least 6 months at Livingstone Central Hospital in Southern Province Zambia, between January 2003 and June 2015. The primary outcome was death. Cause of death was ascertained from medical records and death certificates. Distribution of survival times according to baseline covariates were estimated using Kaplan Meier and Cox Proportional Hazards methods.

Results

Overall, 1039 children were commenced on ART during the study period. The median age at treatment initiation was 3.6 years (IQR: 1.3–8.6) and 520 (50%) children were female. Of these, 71 (7%) died, 164 (16%) were lost to follow-up, 210 (20%) transferred and 594 (56%) were actively on treatment. After 4450 person years, mortality rate was 1.6/100 (95% CI: 1.4–1.8). Mortality was highest during the first 3 months of treatment (11.7/100 (95% CI: 7.6–16.3). In multivariable proportional hazards regression, the adjusted hazards of death were highest among children aged < 1 year (aHR = 3.1 (95% CI: 1.3–6.4), compared to those aged 6–15 years, WHO stage 4 (aHR =4.8 (95% CI: 2.3–10), compared to WHO stage 1 and 2. In the sensitivity analysis to address bias due to loss to follow-up, mortality increased 5 times when we assumed that all the children who were lost to follow up died within 90 days of their last visit.

Conclusion

We observed low attrition due to mortality among children on ART. Loss to follow-up was high (16%). Mortality was highest during the first 3 months of treatment. Children aged less than one year and those with advanced WHO disease stage had higher mortality. We recommend effective interventions to improve retention in care and early diagnosis of HIV in children.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-019-6444-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

High loss to follow-up of children on antiretroviral treatment in a primary care HIV clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa

Outcomes of HIV-infected children have improved dramatically over the past decade, but are undermined by patient loss to follow-up (LTFU). We assessed patterns of LTFU among HIV-infected children receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART) at a large inner-city HIV clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa between 2005 and 2014.Demographic and clinical data were extracted from clinic records of children under 12 years. Differences between characteristics of children retained in care and LTFU were assessed using Wilcoxon rank sum tests or Pearson χ tests. Cox proportional hazard models then identified characteristics associated with LTFU.Of 135 children, the median age at ART initiation was 21.5 months (IQR: 6.3-47.7) with a median follow-up time of 3.3 years (IQR: 1.4-5.0). The incidence rate of LTFU was 10.8 per 100 person-years (95% CI: 8.2-14.4); cumulatively 36% of children were LTFU. Almost a third (n = 39) of children missed a clinic visit, but then returned to care; 77% of these were eventually LTFU. In total, 18% of children had elevated viral loads after 6 or more months of ART. Older age at ART initiation (18-59 months: aHR 1.6, 95% CI: 3.9-14.2) and ever missing a clinic visit (aHR 7.4 95% CI: 3.9-14.2) were independent predictors of LTFU.High rates of LTFU were observed in this primary care clinic. Risks for LTFU included older age (>18 months old) and missed clinic visits. Identifying children who miss scheduled visits and developing strategies directed at retaining them in care is critical to improving long-term pediatric HIV outcomes.

Impact of Birth HIV-PCR Testing on the Uptake of Follow-up Early Infant Diagnosis Services in Cape Town, South Africa

INTRODUCTION

Polymerase chain reaction testing at birth ("birth-testing") is suggested by new World Health Organization guidelines for rapid diagnosis of infants infected with HIV in utero. However, there are few data on the implementation of this approach in sub-Saharan Africa, and whether birth testing affects uptake of subsequent routine early infant diagnosis (EID) testing at 6-10 weeks of age is unknown.

METHODS

We reviewed 575 consecutive infants undergoing targeted high-risk birth testing in Cape Town, South Africa, and matched those testing HIV negative at birth (n = 551) to HIV-exposed infants who did not receive birth testing (n = 551). Maternal and infant clinical and demographic data, including EID testing uptake, were abstracted from routine records.

RESULTS

Overall, 3.8% of all birth tests conducted were positive while later EID testing positivity rates were 0.5% for those infants testing HIV negative at birth and 0.4% for those without birth testing. Infants who underwent birth testing were less likely to present for later EID compared with those without a birth test (73% vs. 85%; P < 0.001). This difference persisted after adjusting for maternal and infant characteristics (adjusted odds ratio, 0.60; 95% confidence interval: 0.41-0.86) and across demographic and clinical subgroups. Infants undergoing birth testing also presented for later EID at a significantly older age (mean age, 60 vs. 50 days; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

While the yield of targeted high-risk birth testing in this setting appears high, neonates testing HIV negative at birth may be less likely to present for subsequent EID testing. For birth testing implementation to contribute to overall EID program goals, structured interventions are required to support follow-up EID services after negative birth test results.

Survival of HIV-1 vertically infected children

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

It is 20 years since the start of the combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) era and more than 10 years since cART scale-up began in resource-limited settings. We examined survival of vertically HIV-infected infants and children in the cART era.

RECENT FINDINGS

Good survival has been achieved on cART in all settings with up to 10-fold mortality reductions compared with before cART availability. Although mortality risk remains high in the first few months after cART initiation in young children with severe disease, it drops rapidly thereafter even for those who started with advanced disease, and longer term mortality risk is low. However, suboptimal retention on cART in routine programs threatens good survival outcomes and even on treatment children continue to experience high comorbidity risk; infections remain the major cause of death. Interventions to address infection risk include a cotrimoxazole prophylaxis, isoniazid preventive therapy, routine childhood and influenza immunization, and improving maternal survival.

SUMMARY

Pediatric survival has improved substantially with cART and HIV-infected children are aging into adulthood. It is important to ensure access to diagnosis and early cART, good program retention as well as optimal comorbidity prophylaxis and treatment to achieve the best possible long-term survival and health outcomes for vertically infected children.

Despite Access to Antiretrovirals for Prevention and Treatment, High Rates of Mortality Persist Among HIV-infected Infants and Young Children

BACKGROUND

Outcomes of HIV-infected children before widespread use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for treatment and prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) have been well characterized but less is known about children who acquire HIV infection in the context of good ART access.

METHODS

We enrolled newly diagnosed HIV-infected children ≤24 months of age at 3 hospitals and 2 clinics in Johannesburg, South Africa. We report ART initiation and mortality rates during 6 months from enrollment and factors associated with mortality.

RESULTS

Of 272 children enrolled, median age 6.1 months, 69.5% were diagnosed during hospitalization. By 6 months postenrollment, 53 (19.5%) died and 73 (26.8%) were lost-to-follow-up. Using Kaplan-Meier analysis, the probability of death by 6 months after enrollment was 23.5%. The median age of death was 9.1 months [95% confidence interval (CI): 8.6-12.0]. Overall, 226 (83%) children initiated ART which was associated with a 71% reduction in risk of death [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.29 (95% CI: 0.15-0.58)]. In multivariable analysis of infant factors, weight-for-age Z score < -2 standard deviation (SD) [HR = 2.43 (95% CI: 1.03-5.73)], CD4 <20% [HR = 3.29 (95% CI: 1.60-6.76)] and identification during hospitalization [HR = 2.89 (95% CI: 1.16-7.25)] were independently associated with mortality. In multivariable analysis of maternal factors, CD4 ≤350/no maternal ART was associated with increased mortality risk [HR = 2.57 (95% CI: 1.19-5.59)] versus CD4 >350/no maternal ART; exposure to maternal/infant antiretrovirals for PMTCT was associated with reduced mortality risk [HR = 0.53 (95% CI: 0.28-0.99)] versus no PMTCT.

CONCLUSIONS

ART initiation is highly protective against death in young children. However, despite improved access to ART, young children remain at risk for early death; innovative approaches to rapidly diagnose and initiate treatment as early in life as possible are needed.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of the adolescent HIV continuum of care in South Africa: the Cresting Wave

CONTEXT

South Africa has the most HIV infections of any country in the world, yet little is known about the adolescent continuum of care from HIV diagnosis through viral suppression.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the adolescent HIV continuum of care in South Africa.

DATA SOURCES

We searched PubMed, Google Scholar and online conference proceedings from International AIDS Society (IAS), International AIDS Conference (AIDS) and Conference on Retrovirology and Opportunistic Infections (CROI) from 1 January 2005 to 31 July 2015.

DATA EXTRACTION

We selected published literature containing South African cohorts and epidemiological data reporting primary data for youth (15-24 years of age) at any stage of the HIV continuum of care (ie, diagnosis, treatment, retention, viral suppression). For the meta-analysis we used six sources for retention in care and nine for viral suppression.

RESULTS

Among the estimated 867 283 HIV-infected youth from 15 to 24 years old in South Africa in 2013, 14% accessed antiretroviral therapy (ART). Of those on therapy, ∼83% were retained in care and 81% were virally suppressed. Overall, we estimate that 10% of HIV-infected youth in South Africa in 2013 were virally suppressed.

LIMITATIONS

This analysis relies on published data from large mostly urban South Africa cohorts limiting the generalisability to all adolescents.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite a large increase in ART programmes in South Africa that have relatively high retention rates and viral suppression rates among HIV-infected youth, only a small percentage are virally suppressed, largely due to low numbers of adolescents and young adults accessing ART.

Evaluation of the FACSPresto, a New Point of Care Device for the Enumeration of CD4% and Absolute CD4+ T Cell Counts in HIV Infection

INTRODUCTION

Enumeration of CD4+ T lymphocytes is important for pre-ART disease staging and screening for opportunistic infections, however access to CD4 testing in resource limited settings is poor. Point of care (POC) technologies can facilitate improved access to CD4 testing. We evaluated the analytical performance of a novel POC device the FACSPresto compared to the FACSCalibur as a reference standard and to the PIMA, a POC device in widespread use in sub-Saharan Africa.

METHOD

Specimens were obtained from 253 HIV infected adults. Venous blood samples were analyzed on the FACSPresto and the FACSCalibur, in a subset of 41 samples additional analysis was done on the PIMA.

RESULTS

The absolute CD4 count results obtained on the FACSPresto were comparable to those on the FACSCalibur with low absolute (9.5cells/μl) and relative bias (3.2%). Bias in CD4% values was also low (1.06%) with a relative bias of 4.9%. The sensitivity was lower at a CD4 count threshold of ≤350cells/μl compared with ≤500cells/μl (84.9% vs. 92.8%) resulting in a high upward misclassification rate at low CD4 counts. Specificity at thresholds of ≤350cells/μl and ≤500cells/μl were 96.6% and 96.8% respectively. The PIMA had a high absolute (-68.6cells/μl) and relative bias (-10.5%) when compared with the FACSCalibur. At thresholds of ≤350cells/μl and ≤500cells/μl the sensitivity was 100% and 95.5% respectively; specificity was 85.7% and 84.2% respectively. The coefficients of repeatability were 4.13%, 5.29% and 9.8% respectively.

DISCUSSION

The analytic performance of the FACSPresto against the reference standard was very good with better agreement and precision than the PIMA. The FACSPresto had comparable sensitivity at a threshold of 500 cells/μl and better specificity than the PIMA. However the FACSPresto showed reduced sensitivity at low CD4 count thresholds.

CONCLUSION

The FACSPresto can be reliably used as a POC device for enumerating absolute CD4 count and CD4% values.

Antiretroviral Therapy in Children Less Than 24 Months of Age at Pediatric HIV Centers in Tanzania: 12-Month Clinical Outcomes and Survival

BACKGROUND

Without antiretroviral therapy (ART), approximately one-half of HIV-infected infants will die by two years. In 2010, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended that all HIV-infected infants < 24 months be initiated on ART regardless of their clinical/immunologic status. However, there remains little published data detailing cohorts of infants on ART in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study describes baseline characteristics and 12 month outcomes of a cohort of HIV-infected children < 24 months of age at pediatric HIV centers in Mwanza and Mbeya, Tanzania.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Retrospective chart review.

INCLUSION CRITERIA

children < 24 months of age, initiated on ART at Baylor Children s Foundation Tanzania clinics, between March-December 2011.

RESULTS

Baseline: Ninety-three children were initiated on ART at a median age of 13.4 months. Sixty-seven percent had severe immunosuppression and 31.5% had severe malnutrition.

OUTCOME

Seventy-three patients were still in care at 12 month follow-up, there were four (4.3%) deaths, five (5.4%) patients transferred, and 11 (11.8%) loss to follow-up. Average CD4% was 32.7 (p < 0.001). Ninety percent of patients were WHO treatment stage I (p < 0.001). Eighty-six percent had normal nutritional status (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Our cohort of HIV infected children < 24 months initiated on ART did well clinically at 12 month outcomes despite being severely immunocompromised and malnourished at baseline. Nevirapine based regimens had good 12 month clinical outcomes, regardless of maternal exposure. Loss to follow-up rate was high for our cohort, demonstrating the need to develop strong mechanisms to counteract this.

Immunodeficiency in children starting antiretroviral therapy in low-, middle-, and high-income countries

BACKGROUND

The CD4 cell count or percent (CD4%) at the start of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) is an important prognostic factor in children starting therapy and an important indicator of program performance. We describe trends and determinants of CD4 measures at cART initiation in children from low-, middle-, and high-income countries.

METHODS

We included children aged <16 years from clinics participating in a collaborative study spanning sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the United States. Missing CD4 values at cART start were estimated through multiple imputation. Severe immunodeficiency was defined according to World Health Organization criteria. Analyses used generalized additive mixed models adjusted for age, country, and calendar year.

RESULTS

A total of 34,706 children from 9 low-income, 6 lower middle-income, 4 upper middle-income countries, and 1 high-income country (United States) were included; 20,624 children (59%) had severe immunodeficiency. In low-income countries, the estimated prevalence of children starting cART with severe immunodeficiency declined from 76% in 2004 to 63% in 2010. Corresponding figures for lower middle-income countries were from 77% to 66% and for upper middle-income countries from 75% to 58%. In the United States, the percentage decreased from 42% to 19% during the period 1996 to 2006. In low- and middle-income countries, infants and children aged 12-15 years had the highest prevalence of severe immunodeficiency at cART initiation.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite progress in most low- and middle-income countries, many children continue to start cART with severe immunodeficiency. Early diagnosis and treatment of HIV-infected children to prevent morbidity and mortality associated with immunodeficiency must remain a global public health priority.

Predicting mortality in HIV-infected children initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy in a resource-deprived setting

BACKGROUND

While highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) programs have been scaled up across sub-Saharan Africa, no prognostic models for the prediction of mortality risk for children initiating HAART are widely available. Current clinical prediction tools for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected children are derived from pre-HAART data and therefore cannot predict mortality for children initiating HAART. The purpose of this study was to develop a mortality risk scoring system for HIV-infected children beginning HAART in a resource-deprived setting.

METHODS

Observational data from HIV-infected children initiating HAART from December 2004 through March 2012 in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo, were analyzed. Cox proportional hazards models were constructed to assess associations between demographic and clinical characteristics at the time of HAART initiation and mortality. Each child received a model-based risk score predicting mortality after HAART initiation.

RESULTS

By 31 March 2012, 1010 children had started HAART. One hundred three children (10.2%) died at a median of 5.3 months post-HAART initiation, yielding a mortality rate of 3.4 deaths per 100 child-years. The final mortality prediction model included undernutrition, low CD4 count, HIV symptoms, and low total lymphocyte count. These factors were highly predictive of mortality in the study population (C statistic = 0.79) and performed well when applied to the validation population (C statistic = 0.77).

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality among children starting HAART in resource-deprived settings can be predicted using a simple scoring system incorporating several readily available factors. Identifying predictors of mortality will help clinicians target modifiable risk factors, such as undernutrition, which are not directly addressed by HAART.

Observational research on NCDs in HIV-positive populations: conceptual and methodological considerations

Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) account for a growing burden of morbidity and mortality among people living with HIV in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). HIV infection and antiretroviral therapy interact with NCD risk factors in complex ways, and research into this "web of causation" has so far been largely based on data from high-income countries. However, improving the understanding, treatment, and prevention of NCDs in LMICs requires region-specific evidence. Priority research areas include: (1) defining the burden of NCDs among people living with HIV, (2) understanding the impact of modifiable risk factors, (3) evaluating effective and efficient care strategies at individual and health systems levels, and (4) evaluating cost-effective prevention strategies. Meeting these needs will require observational data, both to inform the design of randomized trials and to replace trials that would be unethical or infeasible. Focusing on Sub-Saharan Africa, we discuss data resources currently available to inform this effort and consider key limitations and methodological challenges. Existing data resources often lack population-based samples; HIV-negative, HIV-positive, and antiretroviral therapy-naive comparison groups; and measurements of key NCD risk factors and outcomes. Other challenges include loss to follow-up, competing risk of death, incomplete outcome ascertainment and measurement of factors affecting clinical decision making, and the need to control for (time-dependent) confounding. We review these challenges and discuss strategies for overcoming them through augmented data collection and appropriate analysis. We conclude with recommendations to improve the quality of data and analyses available to inform the response to HIV and NCD comorbidity in LMICs.

The association between quality of HIV care, loss to follow-up and mortality in pediatric and adolescent patients receiving antiretroviral therapy in Nigeria

Access to pediatric HIV treatment in resource-limited settings has risen significantly. However, little is known about the quality of care that pediatric or adolescent patients receive. The objective of this study is to explore quality of HIV care and treatment in Nigeria and to determine the association between quality of care, loss-to-follow-up and mortality. A retrospective cohort study was conducted including patients ≤18 years of age who initiated ART between November 2002 and December 2011 at 23 sites across 10 states. 1,516 patients were included. A quality score comprised of 6 process indicators was calculated for each patient. More than half of patients (55.5%) were found to have a high quality score, using the median score as the cut-off. Most patients were screened for tuberculosis at entry into care (81.3%), had adherence measurement and counseling at their last visit (88.7% and 89.7% respectively), and were prescribed co-trimoxazole at some point during enrollment in care (98.8%). Thirty-seven percent received a CD4 count in the six months prior to chart review. Mortality within 90 days of ART initiation was 1.9%. A total of 4.2% of patients died during the period of follow-up (mean: 27 months) with 19.0% lost to follow-up. In multivariate regression analyses, weight for age z-score (Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR): 0.90; 95% CI: 0.85, 0.95) and high quality indicator score (compared a low score, AHR: 0.43; 95% CI: 0.26, 0.73) had a protective effect on mortality. Patients with a high quality score were less likely to be lost to follow-up (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR): 0.42; 95% CI: 0.32, 0.56), compared to those with low score. These findings indicate that providing high quality care to children and adolescents living with HIV is important to improve outcomes, including lowering loss to follow-up and decreasing mortality in this age group.