Predicting mortality in HIV-infected children initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy in a resource-deprived setting

Incidence density mortality rate among HIV-positive children on antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) continues to be the major cause of childhood deaths, particularly in the sub-Saharan African region. In Ethiopia, though several primary studies have been conducted on the incidence of HIV-related child mortality, the pooled incidence density mortality rate among HIV-positive children is unknown. Therefore, this systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to estimate the pooled incidence density mortality rate among HIV-positive children and identify its associated factors in Ethiopia.

METHODS

We browsed PubMed, HINARI, Science Direct, Google Scholar, African Journals Online, and cross-references using different search terms to identify articles. Quality appraisal was done using the Joanna Briggs Institute checklist. Meta-package was used to estimate the pooled incidence of mortality and hazard ratio (HR) of predictors. Heterogeneity was tested using the I-square statistics. Publication bias was tested using a funnel plot visual inspection and Egger's test. Data was presented using forest plots and tables. The random effect model was used to compute the pooled estimate.

RESULTS

The overall pooled incidence density mortality rate among HIV-positive children was 2.52 (95% CI: 1.82, 3.47) per 100 child years. Advanced HIV disease (hazard ratio (HR): 3.45, 95% CI (Confidence Interval): 2.64, 4.51), tuberculosis co-infection (HR: 3.19, 95% CI: 2.08, 4.88), stunting (3.22, 95% CI: 2.46, 4.22), underweight (HR: 2.71, 95% CI: 1.72, 4.26), wasting (HR: 4.14, 95% CI: 2.27, 7.58), didn't receive Isoniazid preventive therapy (HR: 3.33, 95% CI: 2.22, 4.99), anemia (HR: 3.03, 95% CI: 2.52, 3.64), fair or poor antiretroviral therapy adherence (HR: 4.14, 95% CI: 3.28, 5.28) and didn't receive cotrimoxazole preventive therapy (HR: 3.82, 95% CI: 2.49, 5.86) were factors associated with a higher hazard of HIV related child mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The overall pooled incidence density mortality rate among HIV-positive children was high in Ethiopia as compared to the national strategy target. Therefore, counseling on antiretroviral therapy adherence should be strengthened. Regular monitoring of hemoglobin levels and assessment of nutritional status should be done for all children living with HIV. Moreover, healthcare professionals should follow the national HIV treatment guidelines and provide cotrimoxazole preventive therapy and Isoniazid preventive therapy up on the guidelines for children living with HIV.

REGISTRATION

Registered in PROSPERO with ID: CRD42023486902.

Predicting mortality within 1 year of ART initiation in children and adolescents living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa: a retrospective observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

Differentiated service delivery (DSD) for children and adolescents living with HIV can improve targeted resource use. We derived a mortality prediction score to guide clinical decision making for children and adolescents living with HIV.

METHODS

Data for this retrospective observational cohort study were evaluated for all children and adolescents living with HIV and initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART); aged 0-19 years; and enrolled at Baylor clinics in Eswatini, Malawi, Lesotho, Tanzania, and Uganda between 2005 and 2020. Data for clinical prediction, including anthropometric values, physical examination, ART, WHO stage, and laboratory tests were captured at ART initiation. Backward stepwise variable selection and logistic regression were performed to develop predictive models for mortality within 1 year of ART initiation. Probabilities of mortality were generated, compared with true outcomes, internally validated, and evaluated against WHO advanced HIV criteria.

FINDINGS

The study population included 16 958 children and adolescents living with HIV and initiated on ART between May 18, 2005, and Dec 18, 2020. Predictive variables for the most accurate model included: age, CD4 percentage, white blood cell count, haemoglobin concentration, platelet count, and BMI Z score as continuous variables, and WHO clinical stage and oedema, abnormal muscle tone and respiratory distress on examination as categorical variables. The area under the curve (AUC) of the predictive model was 0·851 (95% CI 0·839-0·863) in the training set and 0·822 (0·800-0·845) in the test set, compared with 0·606 (0·595-0·617) for the WHO advanced HIV criteria (p<0·0001).

INTERPRETATION

This study evaluated a large, multinational population to derive a mortality prediction tool for children and adolescents living with HIV. The model more accurately predicted clinical outcomes than the WHO advanced HIV criteria and has the potential to improve DSD for children and adolescents living with HIV in high-burden settings.

FUNDING

National Institute of Health Fogarty International Center.

The predictive accuracy of machine learning for the risk of death in HIV patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Early prediction of mortality in individuals with HIV (PWH) has perpetually posed a formidable challenge. With the widespread integration of machine learning into clinical practice, some researchers endeavor to formulate models predicting the mortality risk for PWH. Nevertheless, the diverse timeframes of mortality among PWH and the potential multitude of modeling variables have cast doubt on the efficacy of the current predictive model for HIV-related deaths. To address this, we undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis, aiming to comprehensively assess the utilization of machine learning in the early prediction of HIV-related deaths and furnish evidence-based support for the advancement of artificial intelligence in this domain.

METHODS

We systematically combed through the PubMed, Cochrane, Embase, and Web of Science databases on November 25, 2023. To evaluate the bias risk in the original studies included, we employed the Predictive Model Bias Risk Assessment Tool (PROBAST). During the meta-analysis, we conducted subgroup analysis based on survival and non-survival models. Additionally, we utilized meta-regression to explore the influence of death time on the predictive value of the model for HIV-related deaths.

RESULTS

After our comprehensive review, we analyzed a total of 24 pieces of literature, encompassing data from 401,389 individuals diagnosed with HIV. Within this dataset, 23 articles specifically delved into deaths during long-term follow-ups outside hospital settings. The machine learning models applied for predicting these deaths comprised survival models (COX regression) and other non-survival models. The outcomes of the meta-analysis unveiled that within the training set, the c-index for predicting deaths among people with HIV (PWH) using predictive models stands at 0.83 (95% CI: 0.75-0.91). In the validation set, the c-index is slightly lower at 0.81 (95% CI: 0.78-0.85). Notably, the meta-regression analysis demonstrated that neither follow-up time nor the occurrence of death events significantly impacted the performance of the machine learning models.

CONCLUSIONS

The study suggests that machine learning is a viable approach for developing non-time-based predictions regarding HIV deaths. Nevertheless, the limited inclusion of original studies necessitates additional multicenter studies for thorough validation.

Effects of Undernutrition and Predictors on the Survival Status of HIV-Positive Children after Started Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) in Northwest Ethiopia

Malnutrition and human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome have complex and multidirectional relationships. Ethiopia is one of the countries hardest hit by the HIV epidemic as well as malnutrition. This study was aimed at assessing the effects of undernutrition on the survival status of HIV-positive children who received HIV/AIDS care in Northwest Ethiopia. Materials and Methods. A facility-based retrospective follow-up was conducted from January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2020. The data was entered into EpiData version 4.2.0. Then, the entered data was exported to STATA 14 software for further analysis, and the Kaplan-Meier survival curve was used to estimate survival time after the initiation of ART. The Bivariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses were conducted to identify predictors of mortality associated with undernutrition. Results. The mean (±SD) age of participant children was found 118.4 (±38.24) months. The overall mortality rate in this study was determined as 5.4 per 100 child-years (95% CI: 3.6, 5.8). Children with CD4 cell counts below the threshold [AHR = 1.6; 95% CI (1.19, 7.85)], advanced WHO clinical stages (III and IV) HIV [AHR = 4.5; 95% CI (2.80, 8.40)], and being severe stunting at the beginning [AHR = 2.9; 95% CI (1.80, 6.40)] were significantly associated with mortality of HIV-positive children. Conclusion. The findings of the current study indicated that HIV-positive children on ART had a high rate of mortality. Baseline undernutrition has the mortality of children who had CD4 counts below a threshold, advanced WHO HIV clinical staging (III and IV), and being severe stunting (HAZ ≤ −3 Z score) which were found to be independent predictors for mortality of undernourished HIV.

Mortality rate among HIV-positive children on ART in Northwest Ethiopia: a historical cohort study

Background

Though highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) has been available for more than a decade in Ethiopia, information regarding mortality rates of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive children after antiretroviral therapy antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation is very scarce. Thus, this study intends to determine the predictors of mortality among HIV-positive children receiving ART in Amhara Region.

Methods

A multicenter facility-based historical cohort study was conducted in 538 HIV-positive children on ART from January 2012 to February 2017. We employed a standardized data extraction tool, adapted from ART entry and follow-up forms. Descriptive analyses were summarized using the Kaplan-Meier survival curve and log rank test. Then, the Cox-proportional hazard regression model was employed to estimate the hazard of death up to five-years after ART initiation. Variables with p-values ≤0.25 in bivariable analysis were candidates to the multivariable analysis. Finally, variables with p-values < 0.05 were considered as significant variables.

Results

The cohort contributed a total follow-up time of 14,600 child-months, with an overall mortality rate of 3.2 (95% CI: 2.3, 4.3) per 100 child-years. This study also indicated that HIV-infected children presenting with opportunistic infections (OIs) (AHR: 2.5, 95% CI: 1.04, 5.9), anemia (AHR: 3.1, 95% CI: 1.4, 6.7), severe immunodeficiency (AHR: 4.4, 95% CI: 1.7, 11.7), severe stunting (AHR: 3.3, 95% CI: 1.4, 8.0), severe wasting (AHR: 3.1, 95% CI: 1.3, 7.3), and advanced disease staging (III and IV) (AHR: 3.0, 95% CI: 1.2, 7.1) were at higher risk of mortality.

Conclusion

A higher rate of mortality was observed in our study as compared to previous Ethiopian studies. HIV-positive children presenting with anemia, OIs, severe immunodeficiency, advanced disease staging (III and IV), severe stunting, and severe wasting were at higher risk of mortality.

Development and Validation of a Risk Prediction Tool to Identify People with HIV Infection Likely Not to Achieve Viral Suppression

Identifying people with HIV infection (PHIV), who are at risk of not achieving viral suppression, is important for designing targeted intervention. The aim of this study was to develop and test a risk prediction tool for PHIV who are at risk of not achieving viral suppression after a year of being in care. We used retrospective data to develop an integer-based scoring method using backward stepwise logistic regression. We also developed risk score categories based on the quartiles of the total risk score. The risk prediction tool was internally validated by bootstrapping. We found that nonviral suppression after a year of being in care among PHIV can be predicted using seven variables, namely, age group, race, federal poverty level, current AIDS status, current homelessness status, problematic alcohol/drug use, and current viral suppression status. Those in the high-risk category had about a 23 increase in the odds of nonviral suppression compared with the low-risk group. The risk prediction tool has good discriminative performance and calibration. Our findings suggest that nonviral suppression after a year of being in care can be predicted using easily available variables. In settings with similar demographics, the risk prediction tool can assist health care providers in identifying high-risk individuals to target for intervention. Follow-up studies are required to externally validate this risk prediction tool.

Effects of undernutrition on survival of human immunodeficiency virus positive children on antiretroviral therapy

Background

The relationship between undernutrition and HIV is bidirectional, ultimately contributing to quality of life and survival of affected individuals. Ethiopia is a sub-Saharan nation influenced by both undernutrition and HIV. In Ethiopia, although individuals are often dually impacted, the effect of undernutrition on the survival of HIV positive children on anti-retroviral therapy (ART) has not been well investigated. Therefore, this study assessed the effect of undernutrition on survival rates of HIV positive children on ART in Amhara Regional State of Ethiopia.

Methods

An institution-based retrospective cohort study was conducted among 390 HIV positive children on ART from the 1st of January, 2012 to the 28th of February, 2017 in Amhara Regional State Referral Hospitals. A simple random sampling technique was used to select the study participants. Data were extracted by reviewing patients’ ART intake and follow-up forms. Data were entered into Epi-Data Version 3.1, and analysis was done using STATA Version 13. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve was used to estimate the cumulative survival time of the sample. Log rank tests were employed to compare the survival time between different categories of explanatory variables. Bivariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were fitted to identify predictors of mortality.

Results

Among the 390 records included in the final analysis, 9.7% of the individuals died within the follow-up period. In this study, the overall mortality rate was found to be 4.4 per 100 child-years (95% CI: 3.2, 6.0) while undernourished children had a lower survival time than well-nourished children. Low hemoglobin level (AHR: 3.2, 95% CI: 1.4, 7.4), CD4 cell count or percent below the threshold (AHR: 5.2, 95% CI: 1.9, 14.1), severe stunting (AHR: 3.9, 95% CI: 1.7, 9.4), severe wasting (AHR: 3.0, 95% CI: 1.3, 6.9) and advanced disease stage (III and IV) (AHR: 2.6, 95% CI: 1.1, 6.6) were found to be predictors of mortality.

Conclusion

There was a high rate of mortality. A significant difference was observed in the survival rate of undernourished and well-nourished children. Low hemoglobin level, CD4 count or percent below the threshold, severe wasting, severe stunting, and advanced disease stage were found to be predictors of mortality.

Brief Report: AIDS-Defining Events and Deaths in HIV-Infected Children and Adolescents on Antiretrovirals: A 14-Year Study in Thailand

BACKGROUND

Data are scarce on the long-term clinical outcomes of perinatally HIV-infected children and adolescents receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in low/middle-income countries. We assessed the incidence of mortality before (early) and after (late) 6 months of ART and of the composite outcome of new/recurrent AIDS-defining event or death >6 months after ART start (late AIDS/death) and their associated factors.

METHODS

Study population was perinatally HIV-infected children (≤18 years) initiating ART within the Program for HIV Prevention and Treatment observational cohort (NCT00433030). Factors associated with late AIDS/death were assessed using competing risk regression models accounting for lost to-follow-up and included baseline and time-updated variables.

RESULTS

Among 619 children, "early" mortality incidence was 99 deaths per 1000 person-years of follow-up [95% confidence interval (CI): 69 to 142] and "late" mortality 6 per 1000 person-years of follow-up (95% CI: 4 to 9). Of the 553 children alive >6 months after ART initiation, median age at ART initiation was 6.4 years, CD4% 8.2%, and HIV-RNA load 5.1 log10 copies/mL. Thirty-eight (7%) children developed late AIDS/death after median time of 3.3 years: 24 died and 24 experienced new/recurrent AIDS-defining events (10 subsequently died). Factors independently associated with late AIDS/death were current age ≥13 years (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio 4.9; 95% CI: 2.4 to 10.1), HIV-RNA load always ≥400 copies/mL (12.3; 95% CI: 4.0 to 37.6), BMI-z-score always <-2 SD (13.7; 95% CI: 3.4 to 55.7), and hemoglobin <8 g/dL at least once (4.6; 95% CI: 2.0 to 10.5).

CONCLUSIONS

After the initial 6 months of ART, being an adolescent, persistent viremia, poor nutritional status, and severe anemia were associated with poor clinical outcomes. This supports the need for novel interventions that target children, particularly adolescents with poor growth and uncontrolled viremia.

Survival of HIV-1 vertically infected children

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

It is 20 years since the start of the combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) era and more than 10 years since cART scale-up began in resource-limited settings. We examined survival of vertically HIV-infected infants and children in the cART era.

RECENT FINDINGS

Good survival has been achieved on cART in all settings with up to 10-fold mortality reductions compared with before cART availability. Although mortality risk remains high in the first few months after cART initiation in young children with severe disease, it drops rapidly thereafter even for those who started with advanced disease, and longer term mortality risk is low. However, suboptimal retention on cART in routine programs threatens good survival outcomes and even on treatment children continue to experience high comorbidity risk; infections remain the major cause of death. Interventions to address infection risk include a cotrimoxazole prophylaxis, isoniazid preventive therapy, routine childhood and influenza immunization, and improving maternal survival.

SUMMARY

Pediatric survival has improved substantially with cART and HIV-infected children are aging into adulthood. It is important to ensure access to diagnosis and early cART, good program retention as well as optimal comorbidity prophylaxis and treatment to achieve the best possible long-term survival and health outcomes for vertically infected children.

Predictors of mortality among HIV-infected children receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The mortality rate of HIV-infected children can be reversed under highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). The impact of HAART on the mortality of HIV-infected children in Cameroon has not been extensively documented. We aimed to measure the mortality rate of HIV-infected children under HAART and to identify predictive factors of mortality.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study of 221 children initiated on HAART from 2005 to 2009 and followed-up until 2013. Survival data was analyzed using Kaplan Meier method and Cox regression model to identify independent predictors of child mortality on HAART.

RESULTS

Overall, 9.9% of children (n=22) died over a follow-up period of 755 child-years (mortality of 2.9 per 100 child-years); 70% of deaths occurred during the first six months of HAART. The probability of survival after four years of treatment was 88.7% (95% CI=[84.2-93.3]). During the multivariate analysis of baseline variables, we observed that the WHO clinical stages III and IV (HR: 3.55 [1.09-13.6] and HR: 7.7 [3.07-31.2]) and age≤1year at HAART initiation were independently associated with death (HR: 2.1 [1.01-5.08]). Neither orphanhood, baseline CD4 count or hemoglobin level nor low nutritional status predicted death in this cohort.

CONCLUSION

The mortality of children receiving HAART was low after five years of follow-up and it was strongly associated with WHO stages III and IV and a younger age at treatment initiation.

Baseline Inflammatory Biomarkers Identify Subgroups of HIV-Infected African Children With Differing Responses to Antiretroviral Therapy

BACKGROUND

Identifying determinants of morbidity and mortality may help target future interventions for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected children.

METHODS

CD4(+) T-cell count, HIV viral load, and levels of biomarkers (C-reactive protein, tumor necrosis factor α [TNF-α], interleukin 6 [IL-6], and soluble CD14) and interleukin 7 were measured at antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation in the ARROW trial (case-cohort design). Cases were individuals who died, had new or recurrent World Health Organization clinical stage 4 events, or had poor immunological response to ART.

RESULTS

There were 115 cases (54 died, 45 had World Health Organization clinical stage 4 events, and 49 had poor immunological response) and 485 controls. Before ART initiation, the median ages of cases and controls were 8.2 years (interquartile range [IQR], 4.4-11.4 years) and 5.8 years (IQR, 2.3-9.3 years), respectively, and the median percentages of lymphocytes expressing CD4 were 4% (IQR, 1%-9%) and 13% (IQR, 8%-18%), respectively. In multivariable logistic regression, cases had lower age-associated CD4(+) T-cell count ratio (calculated as the ratio of the subject's CD4(+) T-cell count to the count expected in healthy individuals of the same age; P < .0001) and higher IL-6 level (P = .002) than controls. Clustering biomarkers and age-associated CD4(+) and CD8(+) T-cell count ratios identified 4 groups of children. Group 1 had the highest frequency of cases (41% cases; 16% died) and profound immunosuppression; group 2 had similar mortality (23% cases; 15% died), but children were younger, with less profound immunosuppression and high levels of inflammatory biomarkers and malnutrition; group 3 comprised young children with moderate immunosuppression, high TNF-α levels, and high age-associated CD8(+) T-cell count ratios but lower frequencies of events (12% cases; 7% died); and group 4 comprised older children with low inflammatory biomarker levels, lower HIV viral loads, and good clinical outcomes (11% cases; 5% died).

CONCLUSIONS

While immunosuppression is the major determinant of poor outcomes during ART, baseline inflammation is an additional important factor, identifying a subgroup of young children with similar mortality. Antiinflammatory interventions may help improve outcomes.