High gasoline prices and mortality from motor vehicle crashes and air pollution

Impact of vision 2030 on traffic safety in Saudi Arabia

Background and objectives

Road traffic accident (RTA) in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is the first and major cause of death. The primary objective of this paper is to investigate the impact of Saudi Vision 2030 on road traffic safety. The Vision 2030 programs lead to the implementation of two crucial steps. The first step was to introduce value-added tax (VAT), and the second step was to increase fuel prices. The effect of these two steps on RTAs, injuries, and fatalities is determined and evaluated in this study.

Research methods

The data of RTAs, injuries, and fatalities in the last three decades before implementing VAT and before increasing fuel prices were collected and analyzed. A short-term effect of fuel prices was evaluated using the data of 3 months after each increase in fuel price. The results of RTA before the increase in fuel prices were compared with those of RTAs after the increase in fuel prices. Time series autoregressive and t-test were used to analyze the significant differences in the results.

Results and discussion

The results show that RTAs have increased continuously during the last 30 years until the increase in fuel prices. A short-term effect of Vision 2030 and economic transformation were evaluated using RTA data before and after the increase in fuel prices. The remarkable decline in the number of RTAs, injuries, and fatalities after fuel prices increased was recorded.

Conclusion

Despite all the core issues implementing to reduce RTAs, such as traffic law enforcement, RTAs in the KSA increase and become the first cause of death in the country. Vision 2030 leads to an increase in gasoline prices and the implementation of VAT. The increase in gasoline prices contributes to a short-term decrease in RTAs, injuries, and fatalities by 22.4%, 21.9%, and 14.1%, respectively, while intermediate-term decrease in RTAs and road traffic fatalities is by 72892 and 1842, respectively. The decrease in RTAs may be attributed to the reduction in unnecessary trips and slower and careful driving by people to decrease fuel consumption. Statistical analyses performed using time series and t-test confirmed the significant effect of fuel prices on reducing RTAs.

Economic and statistical perspectives on traffic safety in Louisiana, 2005-2015

INTRODUCTION

This study examine and applies recent empirical evidence from Mississippi and Alabama on fatal crashes and its relationship with gasoline prices and alcohol consumptions using the Louisiana Crash Data Reports between January 2005 and December 2015.

METHOD

The negative binomial models is the preferred specification for the Louisiana Crash Data. The marginal effects and related elasticities were calculated to facilitate the interpretation of the results.

RESULTS

Findings suggest that higher gasoline prices reduce fatalities among young drivers. A fewer number of young drivers on the roads are believed to reduce the likelihood of fatal crashes. Underage drinking is still prominent in Louisiana. Extreme temperatures are positively associated with youth and other types of fatal crashes.

PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS

This study highlights a huge toll on society in terms of social and economic costs, wealth destruction, and unfulfilled potential of the deceased or incapacitated.

The Association of Gasoline Prices With Hospital Utilization and Costs for Motorcycle and Nonmotorcycle Motor Vehicle Injuries in the United States

OBJECTIVES

This study examined the association between gasoline prices and hospitalizations for motorcycle and nonmotorcycle motor vehicle crash (MVC) injuries.

METHODS

Data on inpatient hospitalizations were obtained from the 2001 to 2010 Nationwide Inpatient Sample. Panel feasible generalized least squares models were used to estimate the effects of monthly inflation-adjusted gasoline prices on hospitalization rates for MVC injuries and to predict the impact of increasing gasoline taxes.

RESULTS

On the basis of the available data, a $1.00 increase in the gasoline tax was associated with an estimated 8348 fewer annual hospitalizations for nonmotorcycle MVC injuries, and reduced hospital costs by $143 million. However, the increase in the gasoline tax was also associated with an estimated 3574 more annual hospitalizations for motorcycle crash injuries, and extended hospital costs by $73 million.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis of some existing data suggest that the increased utilization and costs of hospitalization from motorcycle crash injuries associated with an increase in the price of gasoline are likely to substantially offset reductions in nonmotorcycle MVC injuries. A policy decision to increase the gasoline tax could improve traffic safety if the increased tax is paired with public health interventions to improve motorcycle safety.

A booming economy means a bursting trauma system: association between hospital admission for major injury and indicators of economic activity in a large Canadian health region

BACKGROUND

Injury epidemiology fluctuates with economic activity in many countries. These relationships remain unclear in Canada.

METHODS

The annual risk of admission for major injury (Injury Severity Score ≥12) to a high-volume, level-1 Canadian trauma center was compared with indicators of economic activity over a 16-year period using linear regression.

RESULTS

An increased risk of injured patient admissions was associated with rising mean gross domestic product (GDP [millions of chained 2002 dollars]) (.36 person increase per 100,000 population/$1,000 increase in GDP; P = .001) and annual gasoline prices (.47 person increase per 100,000 population/cent increase in gasoline price; P = .001). Recreation-related vehicle injuries were also associated with economic affluence. The risk of trauma patient mortality with increasing mean annual GDP (P = .72) and gasoline prices (P = .32) remained unchanged.

CONCLUSION

Hospital admissions for major injury, but not trauma patient mortality, were associated with economic activity in a large Canadian health care region.

Transportation and public health

This article investigates various ways that transportation policy and planning decisions affect public health and better ways to incorporate public health objectives into transport planning. Conventional planning tends to consider some public health impacts, such as crash risk and pollution emissions measured per vehicle-kilometer, but generally ignores health problems resulting from less active transport (reduced walking and cycling activity) and the additional crashes and pollution caused by increased vehicle mileage. As a result, transport agencies tend to undervalue strategies that increase transport system diversity and reduce vehicle travel. This article identifies various win-win strategies that can help improve public health and other planning objectives.

Gasoline prices and traffic crashes in Alabama, 1999-2009

OBJECTIVE

The price of gasoline has been found to be negatively associated with traffic crashes in a limited number of studies. However, most of the studies have focused either on fatal crashes only or on all crashes but measured over a very short time period. In this study, we examine gasoline price effects on all traffic crashes by demographic groups in the state of Alabama from 1999 to 2009.

METHODS

Using negative binomial regression techniques to examine monthly data from 1999 to 2009 in the state of Alabama, we estimate the effects of changes in gasoline price on changes in automobile crashes. We also examine how these effects differ by age group (16-20, 21-25, 26-30, 31-64, and 65+), gender (male and female), and race/ethnicity (non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, and Hispanic).

RESULTS

The results show that gasoline prices have both short-term and long-term effects on reducing total traffic crashes and crashes of each age, gender, and race/ethnicity group (except Hispanic due to data limitations). The short-term and long-term effects are not statistically different for each individual demographic group. Gasoline prices have a stronger effect in reducing crashes involving drivers aged 16 to 20 than crashes involving drivers aged 31 to 64 and 65+ in the short term; the effects, however, are not statistically different across other demographic groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Although gasoline price increases are not favored, our findings show that gasoline price increases (or decreases) are associated with reductions (or increases) in the incidence of traffic crashes. If gasoline prices had remained at the 1999 level of $1.41 from 1999 to 2009, applying the estimated elasticities would result in a predicted increase in total crashes of 169,492 (or 11.3%) from the actual number of crashes. If decision makers wish to reduce traffic crashes, increasing gasoline taxes is a possible option-however, doing so would increase travel costs and lead to equity concerns. These findings may help to shape transportation safety planning and policy making.

Population approaches to improve diet, physical activity, and smoking habits: a scientific statement from the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

Poor lifestyle behaviors, including suboptimal diet, physical inactivity, and tobacco use, are leading causes of preventable diseases globally. Although even modest population shifts in risk substantially alter health outcomes, the optimal population-level approaches to improve lifestyle are not well established.

METHODS AND RESULTS

For this American Heart Association scientific statement, the writing group systematically reviewed and graded the current scientific evidence for effective population approaches to improve dietary habits, increase physical activity, and reduce tobacco use. Strategies were considered in 6 broad domains: (1) Media and educational campaigns; (2) labeling and consumer information; (3) taxation, subsidies, and other economic incentives; (4) school and workplace approaches; (5) local environmental changes; and (6) direct restrictions and mandates. The writing group also reviewed the potential contributions of healthcare systems and surveillance systems to behavior change efforts. Several specific population interventions that achieved a Class I or IIa recommendation with grade A or B evidence were identified, providing a set of specific evidence-based strategies that deserve close attention and prioritization for wider implementation. Effective interventions included specific approaches in all 6 domains evaluated for improving diet, increasing activity, and reducing tobacco use. The writing group also identified several specific interventions in each of these domains for which current evidence was less robust, as well as other inconsistencies and evidence gaps, informing the need for further rigorous and interdisciplinary approaches to evaluate population programs and policies.

CONCLUSIONS

This systematic review identified and graded the evidence for a range of population-based strategies to promote lifestyle change. The findings provide a framework for policy makers, advocacy groups, researchers, clinicians, communities, and other stakeholders to understand and implement the most effective approaches. New strategic initiatives and partnerships are needed to translate this evidence into action.

Longitudinal trends in gasoline price and physical activity: the CARDIA study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate longitudinal associations between community-level gasoline price and physical activity (PA).

METHOD

In the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults study, 5115 black and white participants aged 18-30 at baseline 1985-86 were recruited from four U.S. cities (Birmingham, Chicago, Minneapolis and Oakland) and followed over time. We used data from 3 follow-up exams: 1992-93, 1995-96, and 2000-01, when the participants were located across 48 states. From questionnaire data, a total PA score was summarized in exercise units (EU) based on intensity and frequency of 13 PA categories. Using Geographic Information Systems, participants' residential locations were linked to county-level inflation-adjusted gasoline price data collected by the Council for Community & Economic Research. We used a random-effect longitudinal regression model to examine associations between time-varying gasoline price and time-varying PA, controlling for age, race, gender, baseline study center, and time-varying education, marital status, household income, county cost of living, county bus fare, census block-group poverty, and urbanicity.

RESULTS

Holding all control variables constant, a 25-cent increase in inflation-adjusted gasoline price was significantly associated with an increase of 9.9 EU in total PA (95% CI: 0.8-19.1).

CONCLUSION

Rising prices of gasoline may be associated with an unintended increase in leisure PA.

Gasoline prices and their relationship to drunk-driving crashes

This study investigates the relationship between changing gasoline prices and drunk-driving crashes. Specifically, we examine the effects of gasoline prices on drunk-driving crashes in Mississippi by several crash types and demographic groups at the monthly level from 2004 to 2008, a period experiencing great fluctuation in gasoline prices. An exploratory visualization by graphs shows that higher gasoline prices are generally associated with fewer drunk-driving crashes. Higher gasoline prices depress drunk-driving crashes among young and adult drivers, among male and female drivers, and among white and black drivers. Results from negative binomial regression models show that when gas prices are higher, there are fewer drunk-driving crashes, particularly among property-damage-only crashes. When alcohol consumption levels are higher, there are more drunk-driving crashes, particularly fatal and injury crashes. The effects of gasoline prices and alcohol consumption are stronger on drunk-driving crashes than on all crashes. The findings do not vary much across different demographic groups. Overall, gasoline prices have greater effects on less severe crashes and alcohol consumption has greater effects on more severe crashes.

Gasoline prices and traffic safety in Mississippi

PROBLEM

Limited literature suggests that gasoline prices have substantial effects on reducing fatal crashes. However, the literature focuses only on fatal crashes and does not examine the effects on all traffic crashes.

METHODS

Mississippi traffic crash data from April 2004-December 2008 from the Mississippi Highway Patrol and regular-grade unleaded gasoline price data from the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy were used to investigate the effects of gasoline prices on traffic safety by age, gender, and race.

RESULTS

Gasoline prices have both short-term and intermediate-term effects on reducing total traffic crashes and crashes of females, whites, and blacks. The intermediate-term effects are generally stronger than the short-term effects. Gasoline prices also have short-term effects on reducing crashes of younger drivers and intermediate-term effects on older drivers and male drivers.

IMPACT ON INDUSTRY

Higher gasoline taxes reduce traffic crashes and may result in additional societal benefits.

The association between price of regular-grade gasoline and injury and mortality rates among occupants involved in motorcycle- and automobile-related motor vehicle collisions

Motorcyclists have been reported to be more likely to die in a motor vehicle collision (MVC) than automobile occupants. With the recent increase in the pump price of gasoline, it has been reported that people are switching to motorcycles as main modes of transportation. This study evaluated the association between motor vehicle collision-related injury and mortality rates and increases in gasoline prices for occupants of automobiles and riders of motorcycles. There were an estimated 1,270,512 motorcycle MVC and 238,390,853 automobile MVC involved occupants in the U.S. from 1992 to 2007. Higher gasoline prices were associated with increased motorcycle-related injuries and deaths; however, this association no longer remained after accounting for changes in the number of registered vehicles. The current study observed that, while the number of injuries and fatalities in motorcycle-related MVCs increase with increasing gasoline price, rates remained largely unchanged. This suggests that the observed increase in motorcycle-related injuries and fatalities with increasing gasoline price is more a factor of the number of motorcycles on the road rather than operator characteristics.

Climate change and health costs of air emissions from biofuels and gasoline

Environmental impacts of energy use can impose large costs on society. We quantify and monetize the life-cycle climate-change and health effects of greenhouse gas (GHG) and fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)) emissions from gasoline, corn ethanol, and cellulosic ethanol. For each billion ethanol-equivalent gallons of fuel produced and combusted in the US, the combined climate-change and health costs are $469 million for gasoline, $472-952 million for corn ethanol depending on biorefinery heat source (natural gas, corn stover, or coal) and technology, but only $123-208 million for cellulosic ethanol depending on feedstock (prairie biomass, Miscanthus, corn stover, or switchgrass). Moreover, a geographically explicit life-cycle analysis that tracks PM(2.5) emissions and exposure relative to U.S. population shows regional shifts in health costs dependent on fuel production systems. Because cellulosic ethanol can offer health benefits from PM(2.5) reduction that are of comparable importance to its climate-change benefits from GHG reduction, a shift from gasoline to cellulosic ethanol has greater advantages than previously recognized. These advantages are critically dependent on the source of land used to produce biomass for biofuels, on the magnitude of any indirect land use that may result, and on other as yet unmeasured environmental impacts of biofuels.