Selecting a short-term prognostic model for hepatocellular carcinoma: comparison between the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD-sodium, and five cancer staging systems

A Novel Blood Index-Based Model to Predict Hepatitis B Virus-Associated Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence After Curative Hepatectomy: Guidance on Adjuvant Transcatheter Arterial Chemoembolization Choice

Background

Postoperative recurrence is a significant obstacle in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treatment. This study aimed to construct a blood index-based model to predict hepatitis B virus-associated HCC (HBV-HCC) recurrence after curative hepatectomy.

Methods

A total of 370 patients who received initially curative hepatectomy for HBV-HCC were included in this study. A novel blood index signature (BIS) was identified and systematically analyzed for its recurrence predictive value. Following this, multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to build a blood index-based nomogram.

Results

A BIS based on the aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index and a systemic inflammatory response index was used to construct a nomogram. The model showed good clinical applicability and reliability. Notably, the patients in the high recurrence risk group tended to benefit from adjuvant transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE).

Conclusion

A reliable model was constructed to predict the HBV-HCC recurrence after curative hepatectomy. This model can guide the surgeons in selecting patients with high recurrence risk patients who may benefit from adjuvant TACE.

Gastrointestinal Cancers and Liver Cirrhosis: Implications on Treatments and Prognosis

Liver cirrhosis tends to increase the risk in the management of gastrointestinal tumors. Patients with gastrointestinal cancers and liver cirrhosis often have serious postoperative complications and poor prognosis after surgery. Multiple studies have shown that the stage of gastrointestinal cancers and the grade of cirrhosis can influence surgical options and postoperative complications. The higher the stage of cancer and the poorer the degree of cirrhosis, the less the surgical options and the higher the risk of postoperative complications. Therefore, in the treatment of patients with gastrointestinal cancer and liver cirrhosis, clinicians should comprehensively consider the cancer stage, cirrhosis grade, and possible postoperative complications. This review summarizes the treatment methods of patients with different gastrointestinal cancer complicated with liver cirrhosis.

Impact of Integrating Insulin-Like Growth Factor 1 Levels into Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score for Survival Prediction in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients

BACKGROUND

Liver reserve affects survival in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score is used to predict overall survival (OS) and to prioritize HCC patients on the transplantation waiting list, but more accurate models are needed. We hypothesized that integrating insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) levels into MELD score (MELD-IGF-1) improves OS prediction as compared to MELD.

METHODS

We measured plasma IGF-1 levels in training (n = 310) and validation (n = 155) HCC cohorts and created MELD-IGF-1 score. Cox models were used to determine the association of MELD and MELD-IGF-1 with OS. Harrell's c-index was used to compare the predictive capacity.

RESULTS

IGF-1 was significantly associated with OS in both cohorts. Patients with an IGF-1 level of ≤26 ng/mL in the training cohort and in the validation cohorts had significantly higher hazard ratios than patients with the same MELD but IGF-1 >26 ng/mL. In both cohorts, MELD-IGF-1 scores had higher c-indices (0.60 and 0.66) than MELD scores (0.58 and 0.60) (p < 0.001 in both cohorts). Overall, 26% of training and 52.9% of validation cohort patients were reclassified into different risk groups by MELD-IGF-1 (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

After independent validation, the MELD-IGF-1 could be used to risk-stratify patients in clinical trials and for priority assignment for patients on liver transplantation waiting list.

Child-Pugh, MELD, MELD-Na, and ALBI scores: which liver function models best predicts prognosis for HCC patient with ascites?

OBJECTIVE

It remains controversial whether certain treatments should apply to HCC patients with ascites due to concerns about worsening liver function. The objective of the present study is to compare the prognostic performance of 4 liver function models currently in use for HCC patients with ascites.

METHODS

A total of 437 treatment-naïve, newly diagnosed HCC patients were analyzed. The predictive performance of Child-Pugh, MELD, MELD-Na, and ALBI scores were examined using ROC curve analysis.

RESULTS

MELD-Na score showed good performance in predicting 1-, 2-, and 3-year mortality, particularly 1-year mortality. MELD-Na score significantly increased at 30 days after treatment in cases initially receiving best supportive care (14-17, p < .001), TACE (9-11, p < .001), and other treatment (radiotherapy, sorafenib, or systemic chemotherapy) (9-11, p = .021). For patients with advanced tumor stage and MELD-Na score ≥12, HCC-specific treatment did not offer significantly better prognosis compared with only the best supportive care (median survival: 2.2 vs. 1.8 months for HCC-specific treatment vs. best supportive care, p = .15).

CONCLUSION

MELD-Na can effectively identify liver functional reserve and prognosis in HCC patients with ascites. MELD-Na, together with the tumor stage, may help establish a therapeutic strategy for them.

Model for End-Stage Liver Disease and Sodium Velocity Predicts Overall Survival in Nonmetastatic Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The significance of short-term changes in model for end-stage liver disease and Sodium (MELD-Na) following hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) diagnosis is unknown. In this report, we explore the value of the rate of short-term changes in MELD-Na as an independent predictor of mortality in patients with nonmetastatic HCC.

METHODS

We reviewed a cohort of patients diagnosed with nonmetastatic HCC at our institution between 2001 and 2011. We evaluated potential predictors of overall survival, including baseline MELD-Na and the change in MELD-Na over 90 days. We explored survival times of cohorts grouped by baseline MELD-Na and the change in MELD-Na.

RESULTS

182 patients met eligibility criteria. With a median follow-up of 21 months for surviving patients, 110 deaths were observed (60%). Median MELD-Na at the time of diagnosis was 9.7 (IQR 7.5 to 13.9). The median changes in percentage of MELD-Na over 90 days were an increase of 9% (IQR -4% to 55%). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards modeling demonstrated that both baseline MELD-Na (HR=1.07 per unit increase, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.11, p<0.001) and changes in MELD-Na exceeding 40% (HR=3.69, 95% CI 2.39 to 5.69, p<0.001) were independently associated with increased mortality risk. Median survival among patients whose changes in MELD-Na were greater than 40% was 4.5 months, and median survival among the 131 other patients was 25.8 months (p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

We identified a subset of HCC patients who have extremely poor prognosis by incorporating the rate of short-term change in MELD-Na to baseline MELD-Na score.

A novel and validated prognostic nomogram based on liver fibrosis and tumor burden for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after curative resection

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Most conventional staging systems were formulated concerning the tumor burden rather than the severity of liver fibrosis, which plays a central role in tumor promotion. The aim of this study was to formulate a prognostic nomogram comprehensively considering these two aspects for HCC after hepatectomy.

METHODS

The prognostic significances of the four indicators namely laminin, hyaluronic acid, human procollagen type-III, and collagen type-IV that reflect liver fibrosis were explored in two independent cohorts. A nomogram was established based on the results of multivariate analysis. The predictive accuracy of the nomogram was measured by concordance index (C-index) and calibration. The decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the clinical benefit of the nomogram.

RESULTS

Preoperative serum laminin level is an independent prognostic factor for overall survival in HCC patients after resection. The C-indices of the nomogram in the training and validation cohorts were 0.779 and 0.719, respectively. The calibration showed optimal agreement between the prediction by nomogram and actual observation. Moreover, the C-indices and DCA revealed that the nomogram provided better clinical benefit compared with the BCLC stage, CLIP score, and AJCC 7th edition.

CONCLUSIONS

The prognostic nomogram constructed on laminin represents a superior predictive model.

Association Between Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Chinese Hepatitis B Virus Cirrhosis Patients: A Case-Control Study

BACKGROUND Whether the presence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) increases the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in hepatitis B virus (HBV) cirrhosis patients is controversial. We conducted a retrospective case-control study to evaluate this issue. MATERIAL AND METHODS We considered all patients diagnosed with HBV-related liver cirrhosis at our hospital from July 2011 to June 2014. The case (n=91) and control (n=91) groups were HBV cirrhosis patients with and without T2DM, respectively. They were matched at a ratio of 1: 1 according to the individual age (±2 years) and same sex and Child-Pugh score. RESULTS None of the baseline data were significantly different between the 2 groups. The percentage of HCC was similar between the 2 groups (case versus control group: 34.1% versus 46.2%, P=0.13). In the case group, sex (P=0.002), alkaline phosphatase (P<0.001), g-glutamine transferase (P=0.001), and sodium (P=0.003) were associated with the risk of HCC. In the control group, platelet (P=0.041), alanine aminotransferase (P=0.034), aspartate aminotransferase (P=0.026), alkaline phosphatase (P<0.001), and γ-glutamine transferase (P<0.001) were associated with the risk of HCC. CONCLUSIONS T2DM may not be a risk factor for the presence of HCC in HBV cirrhosis.

Oncologic and surgical outcomes in colorectal cancer patients with liver cirrhosis: A propensity-matched study

The management of colorectal cancer in patients with liver cirrhosis requires a thorough understanding of both diseases. This study evaluated the effect of liver cirrhosis on oncologic and surgical outcomes and prognostic factors in colorectal cancer patients. Fifty-five consecutive colorectal cancer patients with liver cirrhosis underwent colorectal resection (LC group). Using a prospectively maintained database, these patients were matched 1:4 using propensity scoring with R programming language, package "MatchIt" and "optmatch" by sex, age, cancer location, and tumor stage with 220 patients without liver cirrhosis (non-LC group), resulting in 275 patients. The 5-year overall survival (OS) was significantly worse in the LC group than in the non-LC group (46.7% vs. 76.2% respectively, P < 0.001); however, the 5-year proportion of recurrence free (PRF) rates were similar (73.1% vs. 84.5% respectively, P = 0.094). On multivariate analysis of the LC group, tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage ≥III disease, venous invasion, and a model for end-stage liver disease plus serum sodium (MELD-Na) score >10 were prognostic factors for OS. However, the OS was not different between the LC group with MELD-Na score ≤10 and the non-LC group (5-year OS rate, TNM stage ≤II, 85.7 vs 89.5%, p = 0.356; TNM stage ≥III, 41.1 vs 66.2%, p = 0.061). Colorectal cancer patients with liver cirrhosis have poorer OS compared to those without liver cirrhosis; however, the PRF rates are similar. It might be due to the mortality from the liver, and surgical treatment should be actively considered for patients with MELD-Na score <10.

Staging systems for hepatocellular carcinoma: Current status and future perspectives

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a major health concern worldwide and the third cause of cancer-related death. Despite advances in treatment as well as careful surveillance programs, the mortality rates in most countries are very high. In contrast to other cancers, the prognosis and treatment of HCC depend on the tumor burden in addition to patient’s underlying liver disease and liver functional reserve. Moreover, there is considerable geographic and institutional variation in both risk factors attributable to the underlying liver diseases and the management of HCC. Therefore, although many staging and/or scoring systems have been proposed, there is currently no globally accepted system for HCC due to the extreme heterogeneity of the disease. The aim of this review is to focus on currently available staging systems as well as those newly reported in the literatures since 2012. Moreover, we describe problems with currently available staging systems and attempts to modify and/or add variables to existing staging systems.

A combination of models for end-stage liver disease and cirrhosis-related complications to predict the prognosis of liver cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

The Child-Pugh score, the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, and the occurrence of cirrhosis-related complications are independent prognostic predictors used in the assessment of chronic liver diseases.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives of this study were to determine the best prognostic scoring system, and to create a combined method to predict the prognosis of liver cirrhosis more accurately.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed 435 cirrhotic patients from January 2009 to June 2010 and evaluated their short- and medium-term survival. Child-Pugh, MELD and its advanced scoring systems were computed for each patient. The sensitivity and specificity of these scoring systems were analyzed and their validity was assessed using concordance (c)-statistics in predicting the prognosis of cirrhotic patients.

RESULTS

Overall, 107 patients died within 6 months and 150 patients died within 1 year. The clinical and biochemical characteristics, cirrhosis-related complications, and the scores were significantly different among the survivors and patients who died. The largest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.741 for the integrated MELD (iMELD) at 6 months and 0.713 for iMELD at 12 months, indicating that iMELD was the best scoring system tested. Given this result, we created a new scoring system that combined iMELD and an index of cirrhosis-related complications, called iMELD-C. This novel system had c indexes of 0.758 for the 6-month survival and 0.746 for the 1-year survival.

CONCLUSIONS

The iMELD-C score is a better predictor of both short- and medium-term survival in patients with cirrhosis.

Non-cancerous prognostic factors of hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation

PURPOSE

To explore non-cancerous factors that may be related with medium-term survival (24 months) after liver transplantation (LT) in this data from northeast Brazil.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was carried out in patients who underwent deceased-donor orthotopic LT because hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) at the University of Pernambuco, Brazil. Non-cancerous factors (i.e.: donor-, receptor-, surgery- and center-related variables) were explored as prognostic factors of medium-term survival using univariate and multivariate approachs.

RESULTS

Sixty-one patients were included for analysis. Their three, six, 12 and 24-month overall cumulative survivals were 88.5%, 80.3%, 73.8% and 65.6%, respectively. Our univariate analysis identified red blood cell transfusion (Exp[b]=1.26; p<0.01) and hepato-venous reconstruction technique (84.6% vs. 51.4%, p<0.01; respectively for piggyback and conventional approaches) as significantly related to post-LT survival. The multivariate analysis confirmed the hepato-venous reconstruction technique was an independent prognostic factor.

CONCLUSION

The piggyback technique was related to improved medium-term survival of hepatocellular carcinoma patients after liver transplantation in this northeast Brazilian sample.

Younger hepatocellular carcinoma patients have better prognosis after percutaneous radiofrequency ablation therapy

GOALS

To evaluate the impact of age on the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing percutaneous radiofrequency ablation (RFA).

BACKGROUND

Whether age plays an important role in the outcomes of HCC after RFA remains controversial.

STUDY

Two hundred fifty-eight consecutive treatment naive HCC patients who underwent RFA were enrolled. Patients aged ≤ 65 years (n = 100) were defined as the younger group and those aged > 65 years (n = 158) were the elderly group. Their clinicopathologic features and prognosis were compared.

RESULTS

Younger patients had a higher male-to-female ratio, higher prevalence of hepatitis B virus, and smaller tumor size than elder patients. After median follow-up of 28.5 ± 18.7 months, 45 patients died. The cumulative 5-year survival rates were 81.3% and 65.4% in younger and elder HCC patients, respectively (P = 0.008). Multivariate analysis disclosed that age > 65 years, serum albumin level ≤ 3.7 g/dL, prothrombin time international normalized ratio > 1.1, α-fetoprotein (AFP) > 20 ng/mL, and no antiviral therapy after RFA were independent risk factors associated with poor overall survival. Besides, there were 163 patients with tumor recurrence after RFA. Multivariate analysis showed that age > 65 years, platelet count ≤ 10/mm, AFP > 20 ng/mL, multinodularity, and tumor size > 2 cm were the independent risk factors predicting recurrence.

CONCLUSIONS

Both liver functional reserve (serum albumin level, prothrombin time international normalized ratio, platelet count, and antiviral therapy) and tumor factors (tumor size, number, and AFP level) were crucial in determining post-RFA prognosis in HCC patients. Moreover, younger HCC patients have better overall survival and lower recurrence rate after RFA compared with elder patients.

Impact of MELD allocation policy on survival outcomes after liver transplantation: a single-center study in northeast Brazil

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the impact of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) allocation policy on survival outcomes after liver transplantation (LT).

INTRODUCTION

Considering that an ideal system of grafts allocation should also ensure improved survival after transplantation, changes in allocation policies need to be evaluated in different contexts as an evolutionary process.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was carried out among patients who underwent LT at the University of Pernambuco. Two groups of patients transplanted before and after the MELD allocation policy implementation were identified and compared using early postoperative mortality and post-LT survival as end-points.

RESULTS

Overall, early postoperative mortality did not significantly differ between cohorts (16.43% vs. 8.14%; p = 0.112). Although at 6 and 36-months the difference between pre-vs. post-MELD survival was only marginally significant (p = 0.066 and p = 0.063; respectively), better short, medium and long-term post-LT survival were observed in the post-MELD period. Subgroups analysis showed special benefits to patients categorized as nonhepatocellular carcinoma (non-HCC) and moderate risk, as determined by MELD score (15-20).

DISCUSSION

This study ensured a more robust estimate of how the MELD policy affected post-LT survival outcomes in Brazil and was the first to show significantly better survival after this new policy was implemented. Additionally, we explored some potential reasons for our divergent survival outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Better survival outcomes were observed in this study after implementation of the MELD criterion, particularly amongst patients categorized as non-HCC and moderate risk by MELD scoring. Governmental involvement in organ transplantation was possibly the main reason for improved survival.

Selecting an optimal staging system for hepatocellular carcinoma: comparison of 5 currently used prognostic models

BACKGROUND

Selecting an appropriate staging system is crucial to predict the outcome of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The optimal prognostic model for HCC is under intense debate. This study investigated the prognostic ability of the 5 currently used staging systems, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC), Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP), Japan Integrated Scoring (JIS) system, tumor-node-metastasis (TNM), and Tokyo score, for HCC.

METHODS

Between 2002 and 2008, 1713 prospectively enrolled HCC patients were compared for their long-term survival by using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) according to the staging or scoring methods of these 5 models.

RESULTS

The mean and median follow-up duration was 18 and 14 months, respectively. Among all patients, the CLIP staging system had the lowest AIC value in comparison with other systems in the Cox proportional hazards model, followed by the Tokyo score, JIS score, BCLC staging system, and TNM staging system. Patients undergoing curative treatment had a significantly better survival in comparison with patients undergoing noncurative treatment (P < .001). When the predictive accuracy of the staging systems was analyzed according to treatment strategy, the CLIP staging system had the lowest AIC value and remained the best prognostic model in patients undergoing curative (801 patients) and noncurative (912 patients) treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

The CLIP staging system is the best long-term prognostic model for HCC in a cohort of patient with early to advanced stage of HCC. Its predictive accuracy is independent of the treatment strategy. Selecting an optimal staging system is helpful in improving the design of future clinical trials.

Hepatocellular carcinoma: comparison of two different periods at the same center

AIMS

To analyze the main etiological factors and some clinical characteristics of patients with HCC at diagnosis and to compare them with those we described ten years ago.

METHODS

179 patients were included in Group 1, while 132 patients were included in Group 2. For all patients age, sex, serum markers of hepatitis B and C viruses, alcohol consumption, serum alpha feto-protein (AFP) levels and the main liver function parameters at HCC diagnosis were recorded.

RESULTS

Mean age was 66.0 years for Group 1 and 69.0 for Group 2 (P=0.005). HCV was responsible for 80.3% of HCC cases in Group 2 versus 72% in Group 1 (P=0.005). HBV alone and co-infection of HCV+HBV decreased, but not significantly. In Group 1 only four patients had an underlying normal liver, while in Group 2 no patients showed an underlying normal liver (P=ns). HCC was more frequently associated with Child class A in Group 2 (P=0.0001), whereas in Group 1 it was more frequently associated with class C (P=0.0001). Staging of HCC correlated inversely when patients of Groups 1 and 2 were compared (P<0.03). AFP serum levels were above normal in 72% of cases in Group 1 and in 41.5% in Group 2 (P=0.0001).

CONCLUSION

This study shows that over the last decade a number of characteristics of patients with HCC in our region have changed, particularly age at onset of HCC, staging of underlying liver disease and staging of HCC.

Reporting performance of prognostic models in cancer: a review

BACKGROUND

Appropriate choice and use of prognostic models in clinical practice require the use of good methods for both model development, and for developing prognostic indices and risk groups from the models. In order to assess reliability and generalizability for use, models need to have been validated and measures of model performance reported. We reviewed published articles to assess the methods and reporting used to develop and evaluate performance of prognostic indices and risk groups from prognostic models.

METHODS

We developed a systematic search string and identified articles from PubMed. Forty-seven articles were included that satisfied the following inclusion criteria: published in 2005; aiming to predict patient outcome; presenting new prognostic models in cancer with outcome time to an event and including a combination of at least two separate variables; and analysing data using multivariable analysis suitable for time to event data.

RESULTS

In 47 studies, Cox models were used in 94% (44), but the coefficients or hazard ratios for the variables in the final model were reported in only 72% (34). The reproducibility of the derived model was assessed in only 11% (5) of the articles. A prognostic index was developed from the model in 81% (38) of the articles, but researchers derived the prognostic index from the final prognostic model in only 34% (13) of the studies; different coefficients or variables from those in the final model were used in 50% (19) of models and the methods used were unclear in 16% (6) of the articles. Methods used to derive prognostic groups were also poor, with researchers not reporting the methods used in 39% (14 of 36) of the studies and data derived methods likely to bias estimates of differences between risk groups being used in 28% (10) of the studies. Validation of their models was reported in only 34% (16) of the studies. In 15 studies validation used data from the same population and in five studies from a different population. Including reports of validation with external data from publications up to four years following model development, external validation was attempted for only 21% (10) of models. Insufficient information was provided on the performance of models in terms of discrimination and calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

Many published prognostic models have been developed using poor methods and many with poor reporting, both of which compromise the reliability and clinical relevance of models, prognostic indices and risk groups derived from them.