Perioperative risk factors for in-hospital mortality after emergency gastrointestinal surgery

Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on short-term postoperative outcomes for colorectal perforation: A nationwide study in Japan based on the National Clinical Database

Aim

Possible negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on short-term postoperative outcomes for colorectal perforation in Japan were examined in this study.

Methods

The National Clinical Database (NCD) is a large-scale database including more than 95% of surgical cases in Japan. We analyzed 13 107 cases of colorectal perforation from 2019 to 2021. National data were analyzed, and subgroup analyses were conducted for subjects in prefectures with high infection levels (HILs) and metropolitan areas (Tokyo Met. and Osaka Pref.). Postoperative 30-day mortality, surgical mortality, and postoperative complications (Clavien-Dindo grade ≥3) were examined. Months were considered to have significantly high or low mortality or complication rates, if the 95% confidence interval (CI) of the standardized mortality (morbidity) ratio (SMR) does not contain 1.

Results

In the NCD, postoperative 30-day mortality occurred in 1371 subjects (10.5%), surgical mortality in 1805 (13.8%), and postoperative complications in 3950 (30.1%). Significantly higher SMRs were found for 30-day mortality in November 2020 (14.6%, 1.39 [95% CI: 1.04-1.83]) and February 2021 (14.6%, 1.48 [95% CI: 1.10-1.96]), and for postoperative complications in June 2020 (37.3%, 1.28 [95% CI: 1.08-1.52]) and November 2020 (36.4%, 1.21 [95% CI: 1.01-1.44]). The SMRs for surgical mortality were not significantly high in any month. In prefectures with HILs and large metropolitan areas, there were few months with significantly higher SMRs.

Conclusions

The COVID-19 pandemic had limited negative effects on postoperative outcomes in patients with colorectal perforation. These findings suggest that the emergency system for colorectal perforation in Japan was generally maintained during the pandemic.

Urea to Albumin Ratio Is an Excellent Predictor of Death in Patients With Complicated Intra-Abdominal Infections

Background: The urea to albumin ratio (UAR) has shown a prognostic value in various clinical settings, however, no study has yet investigated its ability to predict outcome in complicated intra-abdominal infections (cIAIs). Therefore, our aim was to evaluate the association between UAR and mortality in such patients. Patients and Methods: A single-center prospective study including 62 patients with cIAIs was performed at a University Hospital Stara Zagora for the period November 2018 to August 2021. Various routine laboratory and clinical parameters were recorded before surgery and on post-operative day 3. We used serum levels of urea and albumin to calculate the UAR. Results: The observed in-hospital mortality was 14.5%. Non-survivors had higher pre- and post-operative median of UAR than survivors (88.39 vs. 30.99, p < 0.0001 and 106.18 vs. 26.58, p < 0.0001, respectively). Lethal outcome was predicted successfully both by UAR before surgery (area under receiver operating characteristics [AUROC] curves = 0.889; p < 0.0001) at a threshold of 61.42 and on third post-operative day (AUROC = 0.943; p < 0.0001) at a threshold = 55.89. Conclusions: Peri-operative UAR showed an excellent ability for prognostication of fatal outcome in patients with cIAIs.

The Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition criteria for diagnosis of malnutrition and outcomes prediction in emergency abdominal surgery

OBJECTIVES

Malnutrition has adverse postoperative outcomes, especially in emergency surgery. Among the numerous tools for nutritional assessment, this study aims to investigate malnutrition diagnosed by Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition criteria and the Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition predictive value for outcomes after emergency abdominal surgery.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study. Among the 468 patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery admitted to a department of emergency surgery from June 2020 to December 2021, 53 patients were not eligible for enrollment, and 19 patients had missing data. Thus, the final number of participants was 396. Muscle mass was evaluated by skeletal muscle index at the third lumbar vertebra on computed tomography scans, and the lower quartile was defined as the threshold of muscle mass reduction. The associations of Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition, Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition (muscle mass reduction excluded), and skeletal muscle index with in-hospital mortality, postoperative complications, and postoperative stay were evaluated using χ2. In addition, confounding factors were screened, regression models were established, and the Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition predictive value was analyzed for clinical outcome. Ethical approval was obtained from the appropriate department.

RESULTS

Malnutrition was observed in 19.9% of the total 396 patients based on the Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition and in 12.4% on the Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition (muscle mass reduction excluded). Sarcopenia by skeletal muscle index was found in 24.7% of patients. Univariate analysis indicated that in-hospital mortality, postoperative complications, infective complication rate, and postoperative hospital stay were significantly higher in malnourished and sarcopenic patients. Multivariate analysis found that malnutrition diagnosed by the Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition was predictive for complications, infective complications, and postoperative stay (total postoperative complications: odds ratio = 3.620; 95% CI, 1.635-8.015; P = 0.002; infective complications: odds ratio = 3.127; 95% CI, 1.194-8.192; P = 0.020; and postoperative stay: regression coefficient = 2.622; P = 0.022). The Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition (muscle mass reduction excluded) identified postoperative complications and postoperative stay (total postoperative complications: odds ratio = 3.364; 95% CI, 1.247-9.075; P = 0.017 and postoperative stay: regression coefficient = 3.547; P = 0.009). Sarcopenia by skeletal muscle index was a risk factor for postoperative complications (odds ratio = 3.366; 95% CI, 1.587-7.140; P = 0.002).

CONCLUSION

The Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition and Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutritison (muscle mass reduction excluded) had predictive value for adverse clinical outcomes due to malnutrition in patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery.

Albumin haemoglobin index: A novel pre-operative marker for predicting mortality and hospital stay in patients under one-year undergoing gastrointestinal surgeries

AIM

The aim of this study was to evaluate the mortality and morbidity of infants <1 year of age with intestinal obstruction requiring surgical intervention and to investigate the factors affecting mortality and hospital length of stay in paediatric surgery, including albumin-haemoglobin index.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The records of gastrointestinal paediatric surgeries in the past 10 years of patients who were <1-year-old at Baskent University Konya Hospital were obtained from the hospital and retrospectively studied. Patient characteristics, especially the relationship between albumin haemoglobin index (AHI) and hospital duration and mortality, were examined. According to the surgical areas, it also subjected this relationship to further analysed in subgroups.

RESULTS

There were 144 cases who fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Pre-operative serum AHI was analysed using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analyzes. In the ROC analysis, AHI had a diagnostic value in predicting case discharge rates (area under the curve: 0.755, P = 0.001). When the cut-off point was set at 46.18, the sensitivity of the test was 57.5% and the sensitivity for predicting survival was 84%. In the logistic regression model to estimate survival, the odds ratio of AHI was 1.063 (confidence interval: 1.020-1.108, P = 0.004). In subgroup analyzes, AHI positively predicted survival in the NEC group and in the other group. In a linear regression model analysing the effect of AHI on hospital stay of length, AHI explained 10% of the variance in the hospital stay of length variable and significantly and negatively influenced the hospital length variable (β = -0.319, P = 0.05). In the linear regression model for subgroup analyzes, AHI significantly and negatively predicted hospital length of stay in the NEC and pyloric surgery groups, but positively predicted hospital length of stay in the perforation group.

CONCLUSION

The AHI can be used as a valuable marker to predict the likelihood of discharge and length of hospital stay in paediatric surgical cases <1-year-old.

Frailty and Emergency Surgery: Results of a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

Frailty, a "syndrome of loss of reserves," is a decade old concept. Initially it was used mainly in geriatrics but lately its use has been extended into other specialties including surgery. Our main objective was to examine the association between frailty and mortality, between frailty and length of hospital stay (LOS) and frailty and readmission within 30 days in the emergency surgical population.

Methods

Studies reporting on frailty in the emergency surgical population were eligible. MEDLINE (via PubMed), EMBASE, Scopus, CENTRAL, and Web of Science were searched with terms related to acute surgery and frail*. We searched for eligible articles without any restrictions on the 2nd of November 2020. Odds ratios (OR) and weighted mean differences (WMD) were calculated with 95% confidence intervals (CI), using a random effect model. Risk of bias assessment was performed according to the recommendations of the Cochrane Collaboration. As the finally selected studies were either prospective or retrospective cohorts, the "Quality In Prognosis Studies" (QUIPS) tool was used.

Results

At the end of the selection process 21 eligible studies with total 562.070 participants from 8 countries were included in the qualitative and the quantitative synthesis. Patients living with frailty have higher chance of dying within 30 days after an emergency surgical admission (OR: 1.99; CI: 1.76-2.21; p < 0.001). We found a tendency of increased LOS with frailty in acute surgical patients (WMD: 4.75 days; CI: 1.79-7.71; p = 0.002). Patients living with frailty have increased chance of 30-day readmission after discharge (OR: 1.36; CI: 1.06-1.75; p = 0.015).

Conclusions

Although there is good evidence that living with frailty increases the chance of unfavorable outcomes, further research needs to be done to assess the benefits and costs of frailty screening for emergency surgical patients.

Systematic Review Registration

The review protocol was registered on the PROSPERO International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (CRD42021224689).

Pre and postoperative lactate levels and lactate clearance in predicting in-hospital mortality after surgery for gastrointestinal perforation

Background

This study aimed to compare the prognostic significance of pre and postoperative lactate levels and postoperative lactate clearance in the prediction of in-hospital mortality after surgery for gastrointestinal (GI) perforation.

Methods

Among patients who underwent surgery for GI perforation between 2013 and 2017, only patients whose lactate were measured before and after surgery were included and divided into an in-hospital mortality group and a survival group. Data on demographics, comorbidities, pre and postoperative laboratory test results, and operative findings were collected. Risk factors for in-hospital mortality were identified, and receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed for pre and postoperative lactate levels and postoperative lactate clearance.

Results

Of 104 included patients, 17 patients (16.3%) died before discharge. The in-hospital mortality group demonstrated higher preoperative lactate (6.3 ± 5.1 vs. 3.5 ± 3.2, P = 0.013), SOFA score (4.5 ± 1.7 vs. 3.4 ± 2.3, P = 0.004), proportions of patients with lymphoma (23.5% vs. 2.3%, P = 0.006), and rates of contaminated ascites (94.1% vs. 68.2%, P = 0.036) and lower preoperative hemoglobin (10.4 ± 1.6 vs. 11.8 ± 2.4, P = 0.018) compare to the survival group. Multivariate analysis revealed that postoperative lactate (HR 1.259, 95% CI 1.084–1.463, P = 0.003) and preoperative hemoglobin (HR 0.707, 95% CI 0.520–0.959, P = 0.026) affected in-hospital mortality. In the ROC curve analysis, the largest area under the curve (AUC) was shown in the postoperative lactate level (AUC = 0.771, 95% CI 0.678–0.848).

Conclusion

Of perioperative lactate levels in patients underwent surgery for GI perforation, postoperative lactate was the strongest predictor for in-hospital mortality.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12893-022-01479-1.

Risk Factors for Bacteremia After Endoscopic Procedures in Hospitalized Patients With a Focus on Neutropenia

BACKGROUND

The risk for bacteremia following endoscopic procedures varies among studies. A low neutrophil count is considered as a risk factor.

OBJECTIVE

To assess risk factors for bacteremia following endoscopic procedures, focusing on neutropenia.

METHODS

This was a retrospective analysis of all inpatients undergoing endoscopic procedures between 2005 and 2018 with neutrophil count taken within 72 hours before the procedure in a tertiary center in Israel. The primary outcome was positive blood culture within 48 hours following the procedure of bacteria that was not cultured before. Risk factors for bacteremia were assessed and multivariate logistic regression models were built. In neutropenic patients, comparator groups were used to assess the risk related to the procedure and neutropenia.

RESULTS

Of 13,168 patients included, postprocedural bacteremia was recorded in 103 (0.8%). Neutropenia, low albumin level, male gender, older age, preprocedure fever, and admitting department were associated with increased risk for bacteremia in both univariate and multivariate analyses. A multivariate model including these factors was found to be predictive of bacteremia (area under the curve 0.82; 95% confidence interval, 0.78-0.88). In neutropenic patients, the risk of postendoscopic bacteremia (4.2%) was not significantly different compared with neutropenic patients undergoing bronchoscopy (1.8%, P=0.14) or from the rate of bacteremia-to-neutropenic episodes ("background risk") in neutropenic patients in general (6.3%, P=0.33).

CONCLUSIONS

Postendoscopic bacteremia is a rare event among inpatients. Although neutropenia was found to be a risk factor for bacteremia, it was not higher than the background risk in these patients. Models highly predictive of bacteremia were developed and should be validated.

Application effect of the principle of seamless management in nursing risk control of the department of gastrointestinal surgery

OBJECTIVE

To determine the application effect of nursing risk control based on the principle of seamless management in the department of gastrointestinal surgery.

METHODS

A total of 62 patients with gastrointestinal diseases admitted to the Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery in our hospital for nursing risk management based on the principle of seamless management were enrolled into a research group, and another 58 patients admitted before the implementation of such management were enrolled into a control group. The two groups were compared in the incidence of complications, Chinese Perceived Stress Scale (CPSS) score, self-rating anxiety scale (SAS) score, nursing satisfaction, and awareness rate of health knowledge, and the nursing quality scores and medical complaints and disputes were compared before and after the implementation of nursing risk control based on the principle of seamless management by 19 nurses in the department.

RESULTS

The pulmonary infection rate, incision infection rate, incidence of gastrointestinal reaction, and incidence of anastomotic leakage in the research group were all significantly lower than those in the control group (all P<0.05), and CPSS and SAS scores of the research group were also both significantly lower than those of the control group (both P<0.001). In addition, the research group showed significantly higher nursing satisfaction and awareness rate of health knowledge than the control group (both P<0.01), and there were notably less medical complaints and disputes after implementation of the principle of seamless management (P<0.01). Moreover, after implementation of the principle, nursing staff acquired significantly higher scores of professional skills (health education, professional knowledge, and practical operation; all P<0.001), and also contributed to significantly higher scores of nursing work (basic nursing, disinfection and isolation, ward management, intensive care, document writing, and nursing safety; all P<0.001).

CONCLUSION

Nursing risk control based on the principle of seamless management can improve the comprehensive quality of nursing staff in the department of gastrointestinal surgery and the overall quality of nursing, thus lowering the incidence of nursing risk, relieving patients' negative moods, and improving the nurse-patient relationship and satisfaction of both nurses and patients.

Emergency surgery for gastrointestinal cancer: A nationwide study in Japan based on the National Clinical Database

BACKGROUND

Emergency gastrointestinal surgery, although rare, is known for its high mortality and morbidity. However, the risks of emergency surgery for gastrointestinal cancer have not been investigated in depth. This study aimed to investigate the impact of emergency surgery on mortality and morbidity in patients with gastrointestinal cancers and to identify associated risk factors.

METHODS

We extracted data from the National Clinical Database, a nationwide surgery registration system in Japan, for patients with gastrointestinal cancer who underwent esophageal resection, total gastrectomy, distal gastrectomy, right hemicolectomy, or low anterior resection between 2012 and 2017. The impacts of emergency surgery on 30-day mortality and incidence of overall postoperative complications were compared with those of non-emergency surgery. Risk factors for mortality and overall postoperative complications were then sought in patients who underwent emergency surgery.

RESULTS

Thirty-day mortality and incidence of overall postoperative complications were significantly higher in emergency surgeries for gastric, colon, and rectal cancers than in non-emergency surgeries (odds ratios 4.86-6.98 and 1.68-2.18, respectively; all P < .001). Various risk factors were identified in the group that underwent emergency surgery, including preoperative sepsis and lower body mass index. Some of the risk factors were common to all types of surgery and others were specific to a certain type of surgery.

CONCLUSION

The actual risk of emergency surgery and the risk factors for overall postoperative complications in emergency cases are shown to serve as a reference for postoperative management. Emergency surgery had an additional burden on patients depending on the type of surgery.

Psoas Attenuation and Mortality of Elderly Patients Undergoing Nontraumatic Emergency Laparotomy

BACKGROUND

Emergency laparotomy (EL) is an increasingly common procedure in the elderly. Factors associated with mortality in the subpopulation of frail patients have not been thoroughly investigated. Sarcopenia has been investigated as a surrogate for frailty and poor prognosis. Our primary aim was to evaluate the association between easily measured sarcopenia parameters and 30-day postoperative mortality in elderly patients undergoing EL. Length of stay (LOS) and admission to an intensive care unit were secondary end points.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study, over a 5-year period, of patients aged 65 y and older who underwent EL at a tertiary university hospital. Sarcopenia was evaluated on admission computed tomography scan by two methods, first by psoas muscle attenuation and second by the product of perpendicular cross-sectional diameters (PCSDs). The lowest quartile of PCSDs and attenuation were defined as sarcopenic and compared with the rest of the cohort. Attenuation was stratified for the use of contrast enhancement. Multivariant logistic regression was performed to determine independent risk factors.

RESULTS

During the study period, 403 patients, older than 65 y, underwent EL. Of these, 283 fit the inclusion criteria and 65 (23%) patients died within 30 d of surgery. On bivariate analysis, psoas muscle attenuation, but not PCSDs, was found to be associated with 30-day mortality (OR = 2.43, 95% CI = 1.34-4.38, P = 0.003) and longer LOS (35.7 d versus 22.2 d, Δd 13.5, 95% CI = 6.4-20.7, P < 0.001). In a multivariate analysis, psoas muscle attenuation, but not PCSDs, was an independent risk factor for 30-day postoperative mortality (OR = 2.35, 95% CI = 1.16-4.76, P = 0.017) and longer LOS (Δd = 14.4, 95% CI = 7.7-21.0, P < 0.001). Neither of the sarcopenia parameters was associated with increased admission to an intensive care unit.

DISCUSSION

Psoas muscle attenuation is an independent risk factor for 30-day postoperative mortality and LOS after EL in the elderly population. This measurement can inform clinicians about the operative risk and hospital resource utilization.

Risk factors for mortality after emergency laparotomy: scoping systematic review

BACKGROUND

Emergency laparotomy (EL) is a common procedure with high mortality leading to several efforts to record and reduce mortality. Risk scores currently used by quality improvement programmes either require intraoperative data or are not specific to EL. To be of utility to clinicians/patients, estimation of preoperative risk of mortality is important. We aimed to explore individual preoperative risk factors that might be of use in developing a preoperative mortality risk score.

METHODS

Two independent reviewers identified relevant articles from searches of MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane databases from January 1980 to January 2018. We selected studies that evaluated only preoperative predictive factors for mortality in EL patients.

RESULTS

The search yielded 6648 articles screened, with 22 studies included examining 157 728 patients. The combined post-operative 30-day mortality was 13%. All, but one small study, were at low risk of bias. A meta-analysis of results was not possible due to the heterogeneity of populations and outcomes. Age, American Society of Anesthesiologists, preoperative sepsis, dependency status, current cancer and comorbidities were associated with increased mortality. Acute physiological derangements seen in renal, albumin and complete blood count assays were strongly associated with mortality. Delay to surgery and diabetes did not influence mortality. Higher body mass index was protective.

CONCLUSION

Preoperatively, risk factors identified can be used to develop and update risk scores specific for EL mortality. This scoping review focused on the preoperative setting which helps tailor treatment decisions. It highlights the need for further research to test the relevance of newer risk factors such as frailty and nutrition.

Anemia and perioperative mortality in non-cardiac surgery patients: a secondary analysis based on a single-center retrospective study

Background

Evidence regarding the relationship between anemia and perioperative prognosis is controversial. The study was conducted to highlight the specific relationship between anemia and perioperative mortality in non-cardiac surgery patients over 18 years of age.

Methods

This study was a retrospective analysis of the electronic medical records of 90,784 patients at the Singapore General Hospital from January 1, 2012 to October 31, 2016. Multivariate regression, propensity score analysis, doubly robust estimation, and an inverse probability-weighting model was used to ensure the robustness of our findings.

Results

We identified 85,989 patients, of whom75, 163 had none or mild anemia (Hemoglobin>90g/L) and 10,826 had moderate or severe anemia (Hemoglobin≤90g/L). 8,857 patients in each study exposure group had similar propensity scores and were included in the analyses. In the doubly robust model, postoperative 30-day mortality rate was increased by 0.51% (n = 219) in moderate or severe anemia group (Odds Ratio, 1.510; 95% Confidence Interval (CI), 1.049 to 2.174) compared with none or mild anemia group (2.47% vs.1.22%, P<0.001). Moderate or severe anemia was also associated with increased postoperative blood transfusion rates (OR, 5.608; 95% CI, 4.026 to 7.811, P < 0.001). There was no statistical difference in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission rate among different anemia groups within 30 days after surgery (P=0.104).

Discussion

In patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery over 18 years old, moderate or severe preoperative anemia would increase the occurrence of postoperative blood transfusion and the risk of death, rather than ICU admission within 30 days after surgery.

Demographics and Mortality Rates of Surgical Emergencies Treated at the Casualty Operation Theater: A Six-month Retrospective Analysis

Introduction

Emergencies such as appendicitis, peritonitis, road traffic accidents and gunshots require immediate surgical intervention. Patients are first resuscitated at the emergency department and then shifted to the casualty operation theater (COT). COT is a state-of-the-art operation theater that is open 24/7 and ready to deal with any surgical crisis. Once surgery is performed, the patients are admitted to the surgical ward for post-operative care.

Jinnah Postgraduate Medical Centre (JPMC) is the largest tertiary care hospital in Karachi. There is very limited data on the cases that are dealt with on regular basis at the COT in JPMC. Here we break the mold and analyze the various aspects of surgical emergencies treated at the COT over the course of last six months.

Objectives

To evaluate the demographics and mortality rates of emergencies treated at the COT in the last six months.

Methods

This was a retrospective study, held for six months (July 1^st 2019 to December 31^st 2019). Data was obtained from the Records and Administration section, Surgical Unit IV (ward 21), Jinnah Postgraduate Medical Centre.

Results

Three hundred and fifty-five patients were inducted into the study, predominantly male. Majority (71.54%) of the referrals were made from within the city. The mean age of the patients was 48.57 ± 14.92 years. Appendicitis was the most common emergency treated at the COT. The overall mortality rate was 23.94%. Peritonitis and road traffic accidents contributed significantly to the mortality rate.

Conclusion

Surgical emergencies treated at the COT have a high mortality rate at one week. Prompt recognition, early referrals and intervention can help reduce mortality in the future.

Emergency Surgery Mortality (ESM) Score to Predict Mortality and Improve Patient Care in Emergency Surgery

Background

Emergency surgery has poor outcomes with high mortality. Numerous studies have reported the risk factors for postoperative death in order to stratify risk and improve perioperative care; nevertheless, a predictive model based upon these risk factors is lacking.

Objective

We aimed to identify the risk factors of postoperative mortality and to construct a new model for predicting mortality and improving patient care.

Methods

We included adult patients undergoing emergency surgery at Srinagarind Hospital between January 2012 and December 2014. The patients were randomized: 80% to the Training group for model construction and 20% to the Validation group. Patient data were extracted from medical records and then analyzed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression.

Results

We recruited 758 patients, and the mortality rate was 14.5%. The Training group comprised 596 patients, and the Validation group comprised 162. Based upon a multivariate analysis in the Training group, we constructed a model to predict postoperative mortality-an Emergency Surgery Mortality (ESM) score based on the coefficient of each risk factor from the multivariate analysis. The ESM score comprised 7 risk factors, i.e., coagulopathy, ASA class 5, bicarbonate <15 mEq/L, heart rate >100/min, systolic blood pressure <90 mmHg, renal comorbidity, and general surgery, for a total score of 11. An ESM score ≥4 was predictive of postoperative mortality with an AUC of 0.83. The respective sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy for an ESM score ≥4 predictive of postoperative mortality was 70.2%, 94.9%, 13.8, 0.3, 69.4%, 95.1%, and 91.4%. The performance of the ESM score in the Validation group was comparable.

Conclusions

An ESM score comprises 7 risk factors for a total score of 11. An ESM score ≥4 is predictive of postoperative mortality with a high AUC (0.83), sensitivity (70.2%), and specificity (94.9%). Four risk factors are preoperatively manageable for decreasing the probability of postoperative mortality and improving quality of patient care.

A Prediction Model for Recognizing Strangulated Small Bowel Obstruction

Introduction

Early and accurate diagnosis of strangulated small bowel obstruction (SSBO) is difficult. This study aimed to devise a prediction model for predicting the risk of SSBO.

Materials and Methods

A database of 417 patients who had clinical symptoms of intestinal obstruction confirmed by computed tomography (CT) were evaluated for inclusion in this study. Symptoms and laboratory and radiologic findings of these patients were collected after admission. These clinical factors were analyzed using logistic regression. A logistic regression model was applied to identify determinant variables and construct a clinical score that would predict SSBO.

Results

Seventy-six patients were confirmed to have SSBO, 169 patients required surgery but had no evidence of intestinal ischemia, and 172 patients were successfully managed conservatively. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, body temperature ≥ 38.0°C, positive peritoneal irritation sign, white blood cell (WBC) count > 10.0 × 10^9/L, thick-walled small bowel ≥3 mm, and ascites were significantly associated with SSBO. A new prediction model with total scores ranging from 0 to 481 was developed with these five variables. The area under the curve (AUC) of the new prediction model was 0.935.

Conclusions

Our prediction model is a good predictive model to evaluate the severity of SBO.