Identifying patients at higher risk of hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after liver transplantation in a multicenter cohort study from Argentina

HepatoPredict Accurately Selects Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients for Liver Transplantation Regardless of Tumor Heterogeneity

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a major cause of cancer-related deaths rising worldwide. This is leading to an increased demand for liver transplantation (LT), the most effective treatment for HCC in its initial stages. However, current patient selection criteria are limited in predicting recurrence and raise ethical concerns about equitable access to care. This study aims to enhance patient selection by refining the HepatoPredict (HP) tool, a machine learning-based model that combines molecular and clinical data to forecast LT outcomes.

METHODS

The updated HP algorithm was trained on a two-center dataset and assessed against standard clinical criteria. Its prognostic performance was evaluated through accuracy metrics, with additional analyses considering tumor heterogeneity and potential sampling bias.

RESULTS

HP outperformed all clinical criteria, particularly regarding negative predictive value, addressing critical limitations in existing selection strategies. It also demonstrated improved differentiation of recurrence-free and overall survival outcomes. Importantly, the prognostic accuracy of HP remained largely unaffected by intra-nodule and intra-patient heterogeneity, indicating its robustness even when biopsies were taken from smaller or non-dominant nodules.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings support the usage of HP as a valuable tool for optimizing LT candidate selection, promoting fair organ allocation and enhancing patient outcomes through integrated analysis of molecular and clinical data.

Stage-by-stage analysis of the effect of blood transfusion on survival after curative hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma-a retrospective study

OBJECTIVE

This study is to examine the impact of perioperative (intraoperative/postoperative) blood transfusion on the outcomes of curative hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma. Hepatectomy is a well-established curative treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma, and blood transfusion cannot always be avoided in treating the disease.

METHODS

A retrospective study of patients having curative hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma from January 2010 to December 2019 at a single center was conducted. The patients were stratified by their disease stage. Patients with and without perioperative blood transfusion were matched by propensity-score matching and compared for each disease stage. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify prognostic factors for overall survival for each stage.

RESULTS

A total of 846 patients were studied. Among them, 125 received perioperative blood transfusion and 720 did not. Patients with blood transfusion had worse disease-free and overall survival. After stratification and matching, the ratios of transfusion to non-transfusion were 33:165 (stage 1), 28:140 (stage 2), and 45:90 (stage 3). Perioperative blood transfusion was associated with a higher incidence of postoperative complications in all three disease stages (p = 0.004/0.006/0.017), and hence longer hospitalization (p < 0.001 in all stages), but had no significant impact on hospital mortality (p = 0.119/0.118/0.723), 90-day mortality (p = 0.259/0.118/0.723), disease-free survival (p = 0.128/0.826/0.511), or overall survival (p = 0.869/0.122/0.122) in any disease stage. Prognostic factors for overall survival included tumor size, tumor number, alpha-fetoprotein level, and postoperative complication of grade ≥ 3A.

CONCLUSION

Perioperative blood transfusion was associated with a higher incidence of complications but had no significant impact on survival after curative hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma.

Establishment and validation of a novel prognostic model for non-virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma

Objective

The incidence of non-virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma (NV-HCC) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is steadily increasing. The aim of this study was to establish a prognostic model to evaluate the overall survival (OS) of NV-HCC patients.

Methods

Overall, 261 patients with NV-HCC were enrolled in this study. A prognostic model was developed by using LASSO-Cox regression analysis. The prognostic power was appraised by the concordance index (C-index), and the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (TD-ROC). Kaplan–Meier (K–M) survival analysis was used to evaluate the predictive ability in the respective subgroups stratified by the prognostic model risk score. A nomogram for survival prediction was established by integrating the prognostic model, TNM stage, and treatment.

Results

According to the LASSO-Cox regression results, the number of nodules, lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR), prognostic nutritional index (PNI), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), aspartate aminotransferase (AST)/alanine aminotransferase (ALT) ratio (SLR) and C-reactive protein (CRP) were included for prognostic model construction. The C-index of the prognostic model was 0.759 (95% CI 0.723–0.797) in the development cohort and 0.796 (95% CI 0.737–0.855) in the validation cohort, and its predictive ability was better than TNM stage and treatment. The TD-ROC showed similar results. K–M survival analysis showed that NV-HCC patients with low risk scores had a better prognosis (P < 0.05). A nomogram based on the prognostic model, TNM stage, and treatment was constructed with sufficient discriminatory power with C-indexes of 0.78 and 0.85 in the development and validation cohort, respectively.

Conclusion

For NV-HCC, this prognostic model could predict an OS benefit for patients, which may assist clinicians in designing individualized therapeutic strategies.

Mutational and transcriptional alterations and clinicopathological factors predict the prognosis of stage I hepatocellular carcinoma

Background

The prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been extensively studied. However, the impact on prognosis of stage I HCC has not been well studied at clincopathological, mutational and transcriptional levels.

Methods

Here we first characterized the influencing factors of prognosis of stage I HCC patients by downloading and analyzing the whole-exome somatic mutation data, messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) transcription data, along with demographic and clinical information of 163 stage I HCC patients from the TCGA database. The relationship between the influencing factors and HCC prognosis was studied in detail, and a prediction Nomogram model was established. Figures and tables were plotted using the R software.

Results

TP53, CTNNB1, TTN, MUC16 and ALB were the top mutated genes in stage I HCC. A series of co-mutations and mutually exclusive mutations were identified. Twenty-nine genes with significant stratification on prognosis were identified, including highly mutated LRP1B, ARID1A and PTPRQ. Patients with wild type (WT) genes unanimously exhibited significantly better overall survival rate than those with mutants. Patients with the top 10% tumor mutational burden (TMB) exhibited significantly worse prognosis than the rest 90%. Further characterization of transcriptional profile revealed that membrane functions, cell skeleton proteins, ion channels, receptor function and cell cycle were comprehensively altered in stage I HCC. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed at clinicopathological, mutational and transcriptional levels. The combined analysis revealed sex, race, TMB, neoplasm histologic grade, Child–Pugh grade, MMRN1, OXT and COX6A2 transcription as independent risk factors. These factors were used to establish a Nomogram model to predict the prognosis of individual HCC patients.

Conclusions

The influencing factors of prognosis of stage I HCC have been characterized for the first time at clinicopathological, mutational and transcriptional levels. A Nomogram model has been established to predict the prognosis. Further validation is needed to confirm the effectiveness and reliability of the model.

Different Models to Predict the Risk of Recurrent Hepatocellular Carcinoma in the Setting of Liver Transplantation

Simple Summary

Liver transplantation is considered the first-choice curative therapy for hepatocellular carcinoma in the early phase of the disease, when surgical resection is not possible. Even when implementing restrictive criteria to select patients for liver transplantation, there is a risk of recurrence in the transplanted liver, influencing the long-term outcome and prognosis. As it is challenging to predict the individual risk of recurrence, there is a need for validated and predictive scoring systems to use to stratify patients before and/or after liver transplantation. Most of the proposed scorings include biological markers for tumour behavior, in addition to the number and size of tumoral nodules. In this review, we discuss different published models to assess the risk of recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma after transplantation. Our aim is to refine clinical decisions about prioritization and listing for liver transplantation, to better inform patients and provide an appropriate surveillance strategy to influence their prognosis.

Abstract

Liver transplantation is the preferred therapeutic option for non-resectable hepatocellular carcinoma in early-stage disease. Taking into account the limited number of donor organs, liver transplantation is restricted to candidates with long-term outcomes comparable to benign indications on the waiting list. Introducing the morphometric Milan criteria as the gold standard for transplant eligibility reduced the recurrence rate. Even with strict patient selection, there is a risk of recurrence of between 8 and 20% in the transplanted liver, and this is of even greater importance when using more expanded criteria and downstaging protocols. Currently, it remains challenging to predict the risk of recurrence and the related prognosis for individual patients. In this review, the recurrence-risk-assessment scores proposed in the literature are discussed. Currently there is no consensus on the optimal model or the implications of risk stratification in clinical practice. The most recent scorings include additional biological markers for tumour behavior, such as alfa-foetoprotein, and the response to locoregional therapies, in addition to the number and diameter of tumoral nodules. The refinement of the prediction of recurrence is important to better inform patients, guide decisions about prioritization and listing and implement individualized surveillance strategies. In the future, this might also provide indications for tailored immunosuppressive therapy or inclusion in trials for adjuvant treatment.

Prognostic role of selection criteria for liver transplantation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: a network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are selected for transplantation if they have a low tumour burden and low risk of recurrence. The morphometric Milan criteria have been the cornerstone for patient selection, but dynamic morphological and biological tumour characteristics surfaced as an encouraging tool to refine the selection of patients with HCC and to support the expansion of the Milan criteria. The outcomes of the most prevalent models that select patients with HCC for liver transplantation were analysed in this study, which aimed to identify the selection model that offered the best recurrence-free and overall survival after transplantation.

METHODS

Studies that compared Milan, University of California San Francisco (UCSF), up-to-seven (UPTS), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), and MetroTicket 2.0 (MT2) models were included. One-year, 3-year, and 5-year recurrence-free and overall survival rates of patients selected for transplantation using different models were analysed.

RESULTS

A total of 60 850 adult patients with HCC selected for liver transplantation using Milan, UCSF, UPTS, AFP, or MT2 criteria were included. Patients selected for transplantation using the MT2 model had the highest 1-, 3-, and 5-year recurrence-free survival. In addition, patients selected for transplantation using MT2 criteria had the best 1- and 3-year overall survival, whereas patients selected for transplantation using the Milan criteria had the best 5-year overall survival rates.

CONCLUSION

The MT2 model offered the best post-transplant outcomes in patients with HCC, highlighting the importance of considering tumour morphology and biology when selecting patients with HCC for liver transplantation.

Advanced donor age does not increase risk of hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after liver transplantation: a retrospective two-centre analysis using competing risk analysis

The impact of donor age on the recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver transplantation is still debated. Between 2002 and 2014, all patients transplanted for HCC in 2 European liver transplantation tertiary centres were retrospectively reviewed. Risk factors for HCC recurrence were assessed using competing risk analysis, and the impact of donor age < or ≥65 years and < or ≥80 years was specifically evaluated after propensity score matching. 728 patients transplanted with a median follow-up of 86 months were analysed. The 1-, 3- and 5-year recurrence rates were 4.9%, 10.7% and 13.9%, respectively. In multivariable analysis, recipient age (sHR: 0.96 [0.93; 0.98], P < 0.01), number of lesions (sHR: 1.05 [1.04; 1.06], P < 0.001), maximum size of the lesions (sHR: 1.37 [1.27; 1.48], P < 0.01), presence of a hepatocholangiocarcinoma (sHR: 6.47 [2.91; 14.38], P < 0.01) and microvascular invasion (sHR: 3.48 [2.42; 5.02], P < 0.01) were significantly associated with HCC recurrence. After propensity score matching, neither donor age ≥65 (P = 0.29) nor donor age ≥80 (P = 0.84) years increased the risk of HCC recurrence. In conclusion, donor age was not found to be a risk factor for HCC recurrence. Patients listed for HCC can receive a graft from an elderly donor without compromising the outcome.

Potential Role of Adjuvant Lenvatinib in Improving Disease-Free Survival for Patients With High-Risk Hepatitis B Virus-Related Hepatocellular Carcinoma Following Liver Transplantation: A Retrospective, Case Control Study

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Although liver transplantation (LT) is one of the most effective treatments for the patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the high-risk patients suffer from a high ratio of tumor recurrence after LT. Lenvatinib, as a novel targeted drug, has shown an excellent effect in the treatment of advanced HCC, but there is no study on its effect in preventing HCC recurrence in the patients undergoing transplantation. Therefore, this study was designed to evaluate the role of adjuvant lenvatinib in preventing recurrence of high-risk LT recipients with HBV-related HCC.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 23 high-risk patients consisting of lenvatinib group (n=14) and control group (n=9) with HBV-related HCC who underwent LT in our center. Disease-free survival (DFS) and HCC recurrence of the two groups were compared. The adverse events (AEs) and drug tolerance of lenvatinib were evaluated.

RESULTS

The median DFS in lenvatinib group was 291 (95%CI 204-516) days, significantly longer than 182 (95%CI 56-537) days in control group (P=0.04). Three patients in lenvatinib group (21.4%) and five patients in control group (55.6%) had short-term HCC recurrence (P=0.11). All patients in lenvatinib group could tolerate oral lenvatinib for at least three cycles except six cases (42.9%) of dose reduction and 1 case of interruption (14.3%). Thirteen patients (92.9%) taking lenvatinib experienced AEs. The most common AEs were hypertension (64.3%) and proteinuria (42.9%), and the most serious AEs were Grade 3 for 4 cases (28.5%) according to common terminology criteria for adverse events (CTCAE) version 5.0. Additionally, no influence of lenvatinib on the dosage and blood concentration of FK506 was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Adjuvant lenvatinib had a potential benefit on prolonging the DFS and reducing the recurrence of high-risk HBV-related HCC patients following liver transplantation with an acceptable drug safety and patient tolerance.

Argentinian clinical practice guideline for surveillance, diagnosis, staging and treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma

The A.A.E.E.H has developed this guideline for the best care of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) from Argentina. It was done from May 2018 to March 2020. Specific clinical research questions were systematically searched. The quality of evidence and level of recommendations were organized according to GRADE. HCC surveillance is strongly recommended with abdominal ultrasound (US) every six months in the population at risk for HCC (cirrhosis, hepatitis B or hepatitis C); it is suggested to add alpha-feto protein (AFP) levels in case of inexeperienced sonographers. Imaging diagnosis in patients at risk for HCC has high specificity and tumor biopsy is not mandatory. The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer algorithm is strongly recommended for HCC staging and treatment-decision processes. Liver resection is strongly recommended for patients without portal hypertension and preserved liver function. Composite models are suggested for liver transplant selection criteria. Therapies for HCC with robust clinical evidence include transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) and first to second line systemic treatment options (sorafenib, lenvatinib, regorafenib, cabozantinib and ramucirumab). Immunotherapy with nivolumab and pembrolizumab has failed to show statistical benefit but the novel combination of atezolizumab plus bevacizumab has recently shown survival benefit over sorafenib in frontline.

Biomarkers in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Diagnosis, Prognosis and Treatment Response Assessment

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the main cancer-related causes of death worldwide. Thus, there is a constant search for improvement in screening, diagnosis, and treatment strategies to improve the prognosis of this malignancy. The identification of useful biomarkers for surveillance and early HCC diagnosis is still deficient, with available serum biomarkers showing low sensitivity and heterogeneous specificity despite different cut-off points, even when assessed longitudinally, or with a combination of serum biomarkers. In contrast, HCC biomarkers used for prognostic (when associated with clinical outcomes) or predictive purposes (when associated with treatment response) may have an increased clinical role in the near future. Furthermore, some serum biomarkers are already implicated as a treatment selection tool, whether to provide access to certain therapies or to assess clinical benefit after treatment. In the present review we will discuss the clinical utility and foreseen future of HCC biomarkers implicated in surveillance, diagnosis, prognosis, and post-treatment assessment.

Systematic review: risk prediction models for recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation

Recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver transplantation (LT) is a significant clinical problem associated with poor surgical outcomes. This study aims to summarize the current evidence on risk prediction models of HCC recurrence after LT. PubMed and EMBASE were searched to May 25, 2019, for relevant articles. Studies originally designed to develop or validate a risk prediction model for HCC recurrence after LT were included. Two independent authors summarized the study characteristics and evaluated the risk of bias and applicability concerns in the included studies. From 26 included studies, 18 original risk prediction models were determined, but only five models were externally validated. The average number of predictors involved in the construction of risk models was three. The most frequently employed predictors were alpha-fetoprotein, tumor size, vascular invasion, tumor number, tumor differentiation, and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio. Most studies showed good discriminatory performance (AUC >0.75). The overall quality of the included studies was generally low. Most of the original models lacked the highly recommended external and prospective validation in diverse populations. The AFP model was the well-validated preoperative risk model that can stratify patients into high- and low-risk groups.

Pre-transplant alpha-fetoprotein is associated with post-transplant hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence mortality

BACKGROUND

Although liver transplantation may potentially cure hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the risk of HCC recurrence is 8%-20% at five years post-transplant. Pre-transplant alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is a predictor of HCC recurrence, but it is unknown if pre-transplant AFP also predicts survival in patients with recurrence.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study using the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database between 2002 and 2016. We identified adult transplant recipients with HCC recurrence after liver transplantation for HCC and used Cox regression to compare patient survival among different maximum pre-transplant AFP levels.

RESULTS

The cohort (N = 1164) was primarily male, white, and with hepatitis C liver disease. The median time to HCC recurrence was 11.6 months (interquartile range 6.1-26.3). In Cox regression analysis, increasing pre-transplant AFP was associated with poorer survival when adjusting for age, pre-transplant model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), and time to HCC recurrence. For example, patients with pre-transplant AFP ≥500ng/mL had a 1.6-fold higher risk of death versus those with AFP ≤20ng/mL (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Pre-transplant AFP is independently associated with survival in patients with HCC recurrence. These findings further contextualize the importance of pre-transplant AFP in liver transplantation and may improve prognostication for patients with HCC recurrence.

Alcohol-related liver disease: Clinical practice guidelines by the Latin American Association for the Study of the Liver (ALEH)

Alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) is a major cause of advanced chronic liver disease in Latin-America, although data on prevalence is limited. Public health policies aimed at reducing the alarming prevalence of alcohol use disorder in Latin-America should be implemented. ALD comprises a clinical-pathological spectrum that ranges from steatosis, steatohepatitis to advanced forms such as alcoholic hepatitis (AH), cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Besides genetic factors, the amount of alcohol consumption is the most important risk factor for the development of ALD. Continuous consumption of more than 3 standard drinks per day in men and more than 2 drinks per day in women increases the risk of developing liver disease. The pathogenesis of ALD is only partially understood and recent translational studies have identified novel therapeutic targets. Early forms of ALD are often missed and most clinical attention is focused on AH, which is defined as an abrupt onset of jaundice and liver-related complications. In patients with potential confounding factors, a transjugular biopsy is recommended. The standard therapy for AH (i.e. prednisolone) has not evolved in the last decades yet promising new therapies (i.e. G-CSF, N-acetylcysteine) have been recently proposed. In both patients with early and severe ALD, prolonged abstinence is the most efficient therapeutic measure to decrease long-term morbidity and mortality. A multidisciplinary team including alcohol addiction specialists is recommended to manage patients with ALD. Liver transplantation should be considered in the management of patients with end-stage ALD that do not recover despite abstinence. In selected cases, increasing number of centers are proposing early transplantation for patients with severe AH not responding to medical therapy.

Differences in Posttransplant Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence by Etiology of Liver Disease

The 5-year incidence of posttransplant hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence is 8%-20%. Several studies have evaluated pretransplant risk factors for HCC recurrence, but nearly all data have treated HCC as a homogeneous condition across all etiologies of liver disease despite differences in tumor biology and baseline incidence of HCC. We sought to evaluate the impact of etiology of liver disease, maximum pretransplant alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), and the interaction of the 2 factors on the risk of HCC recurrence. We performed a retrospective cohort study of HCC transplant recipients using United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) data from 2002 to 2016. A competing risks regression was performed to identify variables associated with HCC recurrence and an interaction term between etiology and maximum AFP category. Among 18,406 recipients, 1484 patients experienced HCC recurrence over 3.1 years of median follow-up time. There was a significant interaction between AFP category and etiology of liver disease (P < 0.001). Among patients with a maximum AFP <100 ng/mL, those with alcoholic liver disease had the lowest risk of recurrence. In contrast, in patients with a maximum AFP of 100-499, 500-1000, or >1000 ng/mL, those with alcoholic liver disease had the highest risk of HCC recurrence among all etiologies. In conclusion, risk of HCC recurrence differs by etiology of liver disease, and the significance of elevated pretransplant AFP varies by etiology. Patients with alcoholic liver disease and elevated maximum AFP are at a uniquely high risk of HCC recurrence. These findings have potential UNOS policy implications because the transplant selection process may ultimately benefit from etiology-specific criteria.

Serum biomarkers and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after liver transplantation

Liver transplantation (LT) is the only potentially curative treatment for selected patients with cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who are not candidates for resection. When the Milan criteria are strictly applied, 75% to 85%of 3- to 4-year actuarial survival rates are achieved, but up to 20% of the patients experience HCC recurrence after transplantation. The Milan criteria are based on the preoperative tumor macromorphology, tumor size and number on computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging that neither correlate well with posttransplant histological study of the liver explant nor accurately predict HCC recurrence after LT, since they do not include objective measures of tumor biology. Preoperative biological markers, including alpha-fetoprotein, des-gamma-carboxiprothrombin or neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, can predict the risk for HCC recurrence after transplantation. These biomarkers have been proposed as surrogate markers of tumor differentiation and vascular invasion, with varied risk magnitudes depending on the defined cutoffs. Different studies have shown that the combination of one or several biomarkers integrated into prognostic models predict the risk of HCC recurrence after LT more accurately than Milan criteria alone. In this review, we focus on the potential utility of these serum biological markers to improve the performance of Milan criteria to identify patients at high risk of tumoral recurrence after LT.

Results of Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in a Multicenter Latin American Cohort Study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Heterogeneous data has been reported regarding liver transplantation (LT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in Latin America. We aimed to describe treatment during waiting list, survival and recurrence of HCC after LT in a multicenter study from Latin America.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Patients with HCC diagnosed prior to transplant (cHCC) and incidentally found in the explanted liver (iHCC) were included. Imaging-explanted features were compared in cHCC (non-discordant if pre and post-LT were within Milan, discordant if pre-LT was within and post-LT exceeding Milan).

RESULTS

Overall, 435 patients with cHCC and 92 with iHCC were included. At listing, 81% and 91% of cHCC patients were within Milan and San Francisco criteria (UCSF), respectively. Five-year survival and recurrence rates for cHCC within Milan, exceeding Milan/within UCSF and beyond UCSF were 71% and 16%; 66% and 26%; 46% and 55%, respectively. Locoregional treatment prior to LT was performed in 39% of cHCC within Milan, in 53% beyond Milan/within UCSF and in 83% exceeding UCSF (p < 0.0001). This treatment difference was not observed according to AFP values (≤100, 44%; 101-1,000, 39%, and > 1,000 ng/mL 64%; p = 0.12). Discordant imaging-explanted data was observed in 29% of cHCC, showing lower survival HR 2.02 (CI 1.29; 3.15) and higher recurrence rates HR 2.34 when compared to AFP <100 ng/mL. Serum AFP > 1,000 ng/mL at listing was independently associated with a higher 5-year recurrence rate and a HR of 3.24 when compared to AFP <100 ng/mL.

CONCLUSION

Although overall results are comparable to other regions worldwide, pre-LT treatment not only considering imaging data but also AFP values should be contemplated during the next years.

Fatty liver disease, an emerging etiology of hepatocellular carcinoma in Argentina

AIM

To investigate any changing trends in the etiologies of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in Argentina during the last years.

METHODS

A longitudinal cohort study was conducted by 14 regional hospitals starting in 2009 through 2016. All adult patients with newly diagnosed HCC either with pathology or imaging criteria were included. Patients were classified as presenting non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) either by histology or clinically, provided that all other etiologies of liver disease were ruled out, fatty liver was present on abdominal ultrasound and alcohol consumption was excluded. Complete follow-up was assessed in all included subjects since the date of HCC diagnosis until death or last medical visit.

RESULTS

A total of 708 consecutive adults with HCC were included. Six out of 14 hospitals were liver transplant centers (n = 484). The prevalence of diabetes mellitus was 27.7%. Overall, HCV was the main cause of liver disease related with HCC (37%) including cirrhotic and non-cirrhotic patients, followed by alcoholic liver disease 20.8%, NAFLD 11.4%, cryptogenic 9.6%, HBV 5.4% infection, cholestatic disease and autoimmune hepatitis 2.2%, and other causes 9.9%. A 6-fold increase in the percentage corresponding to NAFLD-HCC was detected when the starting year, i.e., 2009 was compared to the last one, i.e., 2015 (4.3% vs 25.6%; P < 0.0001). Accordingly, a higher prevalence of diabetes mellitus was present in NAFLD-HCC group 61.7% when compared to other than NAFLD-HCC 23.3% (P < 0.0001). Lower median AFP values at HCC diagnosis were observed between NAFLD-HCC and non-NAFLD groups (6.6 ng/mL vs 26 ng/mL; P = 0.02). Neither NAFLD nor other HCC etiologies were associated with higher mortality.

CONCLUSION

The growing incidence of NAFLD-HCC documented in the United States and Europe is also observed in Argentina, a confirmation with important Public Health implications.